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NBA Daily: Fixing The Toronto Raptors

Chad Smith continues Basketball Insiders’ “Fixing” series with a breakdown of the troubled Toronto Raptors.

Chad Smith

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Basketball Insiders continues its annual Fixing series by taking a look at teams around the league. So far, we have covered the Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves. Today, we’ll be looking at the Toronto Raptors, who are calling Tampa Bay home this season.

With the first three weeks of the 2020-21 NBA regular season in the books, teams are still trying to get a grasp on how all of their pieces fit together. While many teams have struggled out of the gate, the Raptors appear to be stuck in the mud.

It was less than two years ago that Toronto sat on top of the basketball world, capturing an NBA Finals championship over the Golden State Warriors. Everything seemed to be going their way, from their rookie head coach to Kawhi Leonard’s epic bounce around the rim against the Philadelphia 76ers. But it has all gone south – quite literally – since they entered the “bubble” in Orlando.

So, what have the Raptors done right or wrong this season, and where do they go from here?

What’s Working?

Not much has gone right for the Raptors this season, but they do have a few bright spots to acknowledge – and one of those is the emergence of Chris Boucher. The former Oregon Duck celebrated his 28th birthday on Monday and has played very well this season. He had a monster game against the San Antonio Spurs, scoring 22 points, with 10 rebounds and seven blocks. But those numbers don’t really tell the story of his value to this team.

The only positive lineups per 100 possessions for the Raptors are the ones with Boucher in it. He is an elite rim protector, a versatile defender and can knock down the occasional three-pointer. Boucher shines in the paint as opposing teams shoot 15.1 percent worse around the rim when he is on the floor.

Another aspect that seems to be working for Nick Nurse’s team is the culture and leadership they have displayed. Third quarters have been the Achilles’ heel for this team, but they don’t simply wave the white flag. They always fight and claw their way back late in games, which is a double-edged sword. Great that they have the resolve and effort to come back, but putting themselves in that situation and running out of gas in the final minutes has obviously hurt them.

Elsewhere, Fred VanVleet signed a four-year, $85 million contract this offseason. Often there can be some regression after a player cashes in on a new deal, but Steady Freddy has been shooting the ball very well this season. VanVleet’s scoring is up nearly five points per game while his overall field goal percentage is up about five percent as well. Beyond that, the guard is still shooting 40 percent from deep and finishing better at the rim, but it hasn’t translated to wins.

What Isn’t Working?

The list is long, but it begins with their defense. This has been the staple for Toronto in the last few seasons, however, currently, it is nonexistent. Through their first nine games, the Raptors rank 18th in defensive rating, 18th in offensive rating and are 18th in net rating. Last year, Toronto gave up the lowest three-point shooting percentage to their opponents; so far this campaign, teams are shooting over 40 percent from beyond the arc against them. Even when teams miss shots, they can’t secure the rebound – worse, their leading rebounder in three of the first six games was either Kyle Lowry or VanVleet.

A large part of the rebounding problem eludes to arguably their biggest issue – the frontcourt. The losses of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka have weighed heavy on this team. Their replacements, Aron Baynes and Alex Len, have been of little to no help. Baynes is a -18.3 in team point differential, which is easily the worst among their starters. Even more troubling, he has not been knocking down his open three-point shots, making just three of his 16 attempts.

Sliding Baynes to the second unit might not be the simple fix and, overall, their bench as a whole has been atrocious. Toronto is reluctant to count upon unproven players like Matt Thomas, Malachi Flynn, Stanley Johnson and Terence Davis to play larger roles. Norman Powell has not shown any progression and may still be out of shape. As a unit, they are also fouling too much and only the Wizards and Warriors have committed more fouls this season.

Offensively, the Raptors have struggled to create space in their transition game, a part of the game where they have traditionally thrived. Their half-court offense has been exposed, especially when Lowry is on the bench. Toronto’s points per 100 possessions is around 108 with Lowry on the floor but crumbles to just 81.4 with him off. VanVleet is a decent passer when it comes to finding the open man, but his inability to make pocket passes or lobs in the pick-and-roll has crippled their offense.

One final issue is the biggest elephant in the room: Pascal Siakam simply hasn’t been the same player since the league stoppage last March. After earning the NBA’s Most Improved Player award and emerging as a key piece on a championship-winning team, Siakam has been a shell of himself lately. His shooting percentage dropped six percent in the playoffs and he was scoring six points less per game.

Many teams have put smaller defenders on Siakam to negate his quick speed advantages – but he needs to be more of a playmaker like Gasol was. This is especially true when Lowry is not on the floor. Getting him opportunities in transition, where he has always excelled, will be key for Toronto’s turnaround.

What Needs To Change?

If you listen closely, you can hear the echoes of Raptors fans calling for Nurse to start Boucher. He appears to be the flame that could ignite this team and get them out of their funk. They will need his production on offense and, more importantly, his defensive prowess as they enter a tough stretch in their schedule. Over their next eight games, they’ll face the Dallas Mavericks, Milwaukee Bucks and have two games each against the Charlotte Hornets, Miami HEAT and Indiana Pacers.

Their next five games are at home but that is a relative term considering their temporary home in Florida.

Another lineup change that Nurse could consider is to play more small ball. They are already a poor rebounding team, so playing OG Anunoby at the four and Siakam at the five might resurrect their transition game. Finding the right fit at small forward could be a real task, considering the lack of size they have already with Lowry and VanVleet at the guard positions. Still, if things don’t improve soon, this could be something worth trying.

Focus Area: Trades/Free Agents

It is extremely likely that this roster as currently constructed will not be the same roster by the end of the season, especially if their slide continues. The trade deadline looms on Mar. 25 and there are still some talented free agents looking for a home. If we have learned anything in recent years, it is that Masai Ujiri is not afraid to shake up the roster with a deal.

Would it be worthwhile to bring in a shooter like Kyle Korver to spread the floor? He is a solid veteran that knows his role and would fit in well with the Raptors’ culture. Another name to consider is Shabazz Napier. Of course, Nurse is used to working with smaller guards that excel in the right role. Having been a backup for most of his career, Napier would be a fantastic point guard off the bench with his speed and court vision generating offense.

If Toronto explores trade scenarios, there are a few names that come to mind. Patty Mills could be a low-cost option at backup point guard, should the Spurs be willing to let him go. Myles Turner’s name has been in trade talks for some time, but he’s currently swatting a league-leading four blocks per game. Nate Bjorkgren, the new head coach of the Pacers, used to be an assistant with the Raptors and may be keen on a deal that lands him some of his former players. A deal like that could improve their frontcourt if that is what they want to address.

If they want to infuse some offense and creative playmaking on their bench unit, the Raptors should make a call to the Pistons. Bringing in a guy like Derrick Rose makes almost too much sense, immediately elevating the second unit with scoring and shot creation – plus, Toronto probably wouldn’t have to give up any valuable assets. A deal involving Patrick McCaw, Davis and some second-round draft picks might suffice the rebuilding Pistons, who already have their point guard of the future in rookie Killian Hayes.

The Raptors haven’t missed the playoffs since 2013 – but they currently have a 2-8 record, tied with Detroit for the worst in the league. While it is not time to hit the panic button just yet, Toronto fans should be prepared to break the glass, in case of emergency.

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NBA Daily: What We Forgot

With the NBA season now a month old, Matt John looks into no what we have learned, but we had previously forgotten.

Matt John

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With every new NBA season, we tend to forget a few things here and there; players or teams that go through a down year are often, warranted or not, cast aside for the next best thing, only to resurface in the NBA’s collective conscience later on.

Like last season, for example, Dwight Howard was regarded as a nothing-addition for the Los Angeles Lakers, a gamble that they may have been better off not taking. However, Howard played an integral role in the Lakers’ run to the NBA title and reminded everyone that, when he plays without distractions, he’s one of the league’s fiercest around the basket.

But that’s just one example. So, who or what has been re-discovered this season? Let’s take a look.

Stephen Curry: Still Phenomenal

Nobody’s forgotten that entirely. It’s just been a while since people have seen Curry at the peak of his powers.

Sure, it was easy to be skeptical of what he was capable of coming into this season. But, with Kevin Durant gone, Curry had free reign to score and shoot as much as he desired. And, with that freedom, Curry’s put up his best numbers since 2016, his second MVP season. In 15 games, Curry’s averaged 28.2 points 5.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists and shot 45 percent from the field, 37 percent from three and 93 percent from the line. He’s reminded everyone why he’s one of the games best and that he can accomplish anything or score on anyone on any given night.

Of course, the absence of Durant, as well as the loss of Klay Thompson and others, has led to another atypical season for the Warriors. Their 8-7 has them tied for seventh in the Western Conference and, while they have certainly improved on how they looked to start the season, they have a long way to go before they’re back in title contention.

The Warriors may never again reach the heights they once knew, either before or with Durant. But, until Father Time dictates otherwise, Curry should long remain a nightmare for the opposition.

Tom Thibodeau Can Get It Done

What can you say about the New York Knicks? Unironically, a lot.

Not only have they shown themselves to no longer be the butt of the NBA’s jokes, but, compared to the last decade-plus of Knicks’ basketball, the 2020-21 season might be their brightest yet.

Julius Randle’s transition into more of a point forward-type has generated a career-year and All-Star buzz. RJ Barrett has continued to improve rapidly, while rookie Immanuel Quickley has “quickley” become a fan favorite. Most impressive of all, however, is that New York has allowed the fewest points per game (102.7) and the fourth-fewest points per 100 possessions (106.8) in the NBA.

In other words, they finally look like a competent basketball team. But what’s changed? Two words: Tom Thibodeau.

The players have bought in to Thibodeau’s scheme and, clearly, it’s had a positive effect. Of course, the disaster that was his Minnesota Timberwolves tenure made us forget just what a proven head coach Thibodeau could be, but he’s put it all together in the past and, in New York, he would seem to be doing so once again.

Of course, there is plenty left to do. The Knicks’ spacing is a joke — and a bad one at that. In fact, their entire offense could stand to see some of that energy they bring on defense; the Knicks are dead last in the NBA at 101.3 points per game.

Still, at 8-8, New York is no longer a doormat and, given the last few seasons, that’s probably the best they could’ve hoped for. Rome wasn’t built in a day and the Knicks won’t be either, but the franchise looks like they may have finally turned a corner toward relevance.

Maturity Issues Loom Large

Like the Knicks, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been another NBA-darling this season. And again, like New York, their players have bought in; head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has everyone playing with energy on defense and, while their offense hasn’t quite reached the same level, they’re competing to the best of their ability.

Of course, the progress of Kevin Porter Jr. could have been the cherry on top of it all. But that ship has sailed.

After an outburst directed toward general manager Koby Altman, Cleveland has since moved on from the young forward. Of course, the Cavaliers knew Porter came with baggage when they selected him with the last pick of the first round in the 2019 NBA Draft, but his potential was salivating and Cleveland had hoped they could help him grow — not only as an NBA player, but as a person. There have been success stories in the past, troubled players that have come in and shut out the noise and become both respectable characters and NBA players. DeAndre Jordan, a former lottery talent, dropped in his own draft due to similar concerns, but overcame those issues and has since gone on to play a long career.

Unfortunately, it just hadn’t gone that way with Porter and the Cavaliers, as the noise became too much to bear for a team with a long road back to relevancy. It’s reminded everyone just how hard it can be, both as a player and as their team, to deal with those issues and, regardless of the talent or potential, the headache sometimes just isn’t worth the risk.

Luckily for Porter, it’s not too late; a fresh start with the Houston Rockets should do him wonders. And, hopefully, the Rockets can help him overcome that baggage, his maturity issues and whatever else he may be dealing with.

But even if they don’t or can’t, Porter must wake up and seize his opportunity while he still can; if he sees another falling out in Houston, there’s no telling if he’ll ever get another chance elsewhere.

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NBA

NBA Daily: Three Trade Targets for the New York Knicks

Drew Maresca explores three restricted free agents-to-be who the Knicks should explore adding via trade before the March 25 trade deadline.

Drew Maresca

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Often the NBA’s biggest flop, the New York Knicks have been significantly better-than-expected to start the 2020-21 season. They’ve won eight of their first 16 games and have surrendered the fewest points per game on the season, placing them squarely in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

That said, they’re not out of the woods yet; with much of the season left to play, the Knicks are devoid of any meaningful offensive weapons. Additionally, the roster features a number of high-quality veterans whose deals are set to expire, the kind of players that contenders like to fill out their rotations with down the stretch, so the roster could look much different at the end of the year than it does now.

So, the Knicks are expected to be active on the trade front, again – no surprise there. But this year could be among the last in which the Knicks are sellers at the deadline. And, while moving some of those veterans for future assets is smart, the Knicks may also want to look at players they can add to bolster that future further.

Of course, New York shouldn’t go all-in for Bradley Beal — they’re not there yet — but there are a number of restricted free agents to-be that would fit both their roster and timeline nicely.

But why give away assets to acquire someone that the team could sign outright in just a few months? It may sound counterintuitive to add a player that’s about to hit free agency, restricted or otherwise, but procuring that player’s Bird rights, an exception in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows teams to go over the salary cap to re-sign their own players (not to mention offer them an extra contract year and bigger raises), can be key to securing a player’s services and building a long-term contender.

Further, the 2021 free agent market isn’t might not live up to expectation, with many presumed free agents already agreed to extensions. So, with that in mind, which players should the Knicks pursue via trade prior to the March 25 trade deadline?

John Collins, Atlanta Hawks

Collins’ production is down this season, but that has nothing to do with his ability. A 23-year-old stretch-four who’s shooting 35% on three-point attempts, Collins is big, athletic, can score the ball (16.7 points per game this season) and is a great rebounder (7.5 per game). He also connects on 80% of his free-throw attempts.

Despite those impressive stats, Collins was even more productive last season, averaging 21.6 points on better than 40% three-point shooting and collecting 10.1 rebounds per game.

But the Hawks rotation has become increasingly crowded this year. They added Danilo Gallinari and rookie big man Oneyeka Okongwu, the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, to the frontcourt this offseason, while Collins was already vying for minutes with Clint Capella, who Atlanta added via trade last season. Cam Reddish, a second-year wing who is versatile enough to play some power forward, has also stolen some of Collins’ potential minutes.

So, as much as the Hawks seem to like Collins, he may be a luxury they can do without. He’ll obviously demand a relatively high-priced contract. The fact that Atlanta and Collins failed to reach an extension last summer would also seem to make a reunion less likely; would the Hawks invest so heavily in him now that they have three players at the position signed through at least the 2022-23 season? Further, could they invest even if they wanted to at this point? The Hawks are already committed to more than $100 million next season and, with Trae Young and Kevin Huerter extensions on the horizon, they might be hard-pressed to scrounge for the cash Collins would want in a new deal.

He won’t come cheap, for sure. But, while Julius Randle fans may not love the idea of bringing in his replacement, Collins is simply a better long-term solution.

Lonzo Ball, New Orleans Pelicans

The point guard position has been a sore spot for the Knicks for some time. And while Ball might not be the franchise cornerstone that many hoped he’d become, adding a young player with his upside is clearly a positive move.

Granted, Ball is inherently flawed. His jump shot appeared to be much improved last season and he’s showcased a significantly improved shooting form from years past. But he’s struggled in the new season, shooting only 28% on three-point attempts (down from 37.5% last season). In fact, he’s struggled on the whole on the offensive side of the ball, posting just 11.9 points and 4.4 assists per game (a career-low). He’s also missed some time with knee soreness and moved to more of an off-the-ball role as new head coach Stan Van Gundy has put the ball in the hands of Brandon Ingram more and more.

But, with New York, Ball would step into a significant role immediately. For his career, Ball is a net-positive player and, despite his shooting woes, has posted a positive VORP every year he’s been in the league, save for this season. He’s an above-average defender and, while he does need to ball in his hands, he doesn’t necessarily need to take shots to be effective.

Ball may never become the All-World caliber guard many pegged him as before the 2017 NBA Draft, but he’s better than any other option currently at the Knicks disposal. And, best of all, his trade value is arguably as low as it’s ever been. So, while the Pelicans won’t just give him away, New York should do what they can to acquire him for a reasonable price.

Devonte’ Graham, Charlotte Hornets

Last but not least, the surprise from the 2018-19 rookie class. Graham is possibly the hardest sell on this list, but it’s not for a lack of talent.

Graham burst onto the scene last season, posting an impressive sophomore campaign of 18.2 points and 6.4 assists per game. Unfortunately, those numbers have taken a drastic dip this season with the arrival of Gordon Hayward and the highly-touted rookie LaMelo Ball in Charlotte. Likewise, Graham’s struggles through the Hornets’ first 10 games limited his opportunities further.

That said, he would appear to be done slumping, as he’s connected on 43% of his attempts from deep in the team’s last two games.

But his efficiency wouldn’t be the main challenge when constructing a Graham trade. Instead, some in New York could be concerned with lack of size – Graham is only 6-foot-1 – and his inability to act as a facilitator at the guard spot.

But Graham is talented, plain and simple. In fact, he’s the exact kind of talent the Knicks should be looking to add right now. More specifically, Graham shot 37.3% on three-point attempts last season; the Knicks rank 21st in three-point percentage so far this season.

The Knicks could ultimately sit tight, swap a few veterans for future draft picks and rest assured that they’ve made enough progress by simply adding coach Tom Thibodeau. But they could and should be aggressive while they can. If New York can add one or more the players mentioned, they may not only build a brighter future, but improve on what the team could do this season. Either way, the Knicks look to be on a good trajectory, but every move they make from here on out can and will affect how quickly they make the leap from laughingstock to respectable contender.

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NBA AM: The Utah Jazz Are Showing Continuity Is Key

Is Utah’s early success an indicator of things to come? Between Donavon Mitchell, a stingy defense and hot three-point shooting, they may just be the real deal.

Ariel Pacheco

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The Utah Jazz are riding high on a seven-game winning streak, hotter, at this point, than all hell. 15 games into the season, the Jazz have been the third-best team in the Western Conference. The key for them has been continuity as they have 11 guys who were on last year’s team. The only addition they made to their rotation this offseason was Derrick Favors, who was with the team for nine seasons before a one-year departure. 

Quinn Snyder is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in the league, and he’s showing why this season. The Jazz are currently in 7th in both offensive and defensive rating. Beyond that, there are only three teams who can say they are top 10 in both: The Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers and the Phoenix Suns. Often, teams that finish in this select category are historically serious contenders. 

Moreover, the Jazz have been on a shooting tear. Using Gobert’s rolling ability to collapse opposing defenses and find open shooters, Utah’s offense is clicking right now. It’s worked tremendously too, considering the Jazz have attempted and made the most three-pointers of any team this season – and hitting on 40.3 percent as a team. Royce O’Neale, Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles and Mike Conley are all shooting above 40 percent; while Bojan Bogdanovic is almost there at 37.8.

Basically, the Jazz are just shooting the ball at a ridiculously well rate right now and good ball movement has propelled them. 

Mitchell seems to have taken another jump in his development, although it is subtle, and his growth as a playmaker has benefitted everyone. He’s made teams pay for overhelping, often initiating the ball movement that has led to open looks. He’s also taking fewer mid-range jumpers, converting those attempts into three-pointers. The budding star’s play has been more consistent overall, and he’s been effective out of the pick-and-roll. 

Mike Conley’s improved play this season has been needed – now he’s settled and red-hot. Coming off a disappointing season last year, there were questions as to whether he was declining. While it’s safe to say he’s no longer the guy he was in Memphis, this version of Conley is still a good one. He looks a lot more comfortable in his role and the Jazz are reaping the benefits. In a contract year, Conley is averaging 16.3 points and 6.3 assists per game while shooting 41 percent from three.

Jordan Clarkson is a strong candidate for Sixth Man of the Year, fitting in perfectly as the Jazz need his scoring and creation off the bench – even leading the league in such scorers from there. But the Jazz’s bench is more than just Clarkson though, as they’ve gotten strong minutes from Joe Ingles, Georges Niang and Derrick Favors too. They’re a solid group that plays both ends of the court, and all fit in nicely with the starters as well. 

Sorely needed, however, Bojan Bogdanovic’s return has helped tremendously. He gives them another big wing who can shoot and is a scoring threat, and before he got hurt last season, he was averaging 20 PPG. While he isn’t at that level this season, he gives them another reliable scoring option that they badly need. Better, it also allows Ingles to remain on the bench, where his playmaking ability can really thrive.

The Jazz have been playing stylistically a little bit different this year and it has worked. They don’t run often but when they do, they have been potent. Playing at the same pace as last season, Utah is scoring almost five more points per game in transition. Additionally, they are taking six more threes a game too. This all amounts to a 6.1 net rating, which is good for fourth-best in the NBA. 

Lastly, their defense has been impossible for teams to penetrate, inviting opponents to try and finish over Rudy Gobert in the paint. Gobert is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate for a reason – his presence alone almost assuredly guarantees his team will be a top 10 defense, which the Jazz are. Favors’ addition has helped stabilize the defense when Gobert sits, which was a major issue last season. Overall, they are just a very disciplined defense that makes teams earn their points, rarely committing cheap fouls.

As it stands today, the Utah Jazz are solidifying themselves as one of the best teams in the Western Conference. It remains to be seen if the hot shooting is sustainable, but the way they are generating those open looks seems to be. The defense is legit, and if they can remain healthy there’s reason to believe that this team can continue to compete at this level. The Utah starting lineup has outscored opponents by 58 points, but they’ve also had one of the best benches in the league – needless to say, the Jazz’s continuity has been a big part of their early success.

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