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NBA Daily: Potential Bounce-Back Candidates

Basketball Insiders covers some notable players who could have a bounce-back campaign after falling short of expectations last season.

Jesse Blancarte

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Each NBA season there is a sizable amount of players who fall short of expectations. Sometimes it is because of injuries, age, a change in a player’s role or a long list of other factors. Last season, there were several notable players that fell short of expectations because of some combination of these factors. However, many of these players are primed for a potential bounce-back after seemingly rehabilitating their respective injuries, moving onto new teams and addressing other issues that might have held them back last season.

Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors

The Kawhi Leonard saga is well known by all persons who have paid any attention to the NBA over the last 10 months or so. Leonard, who has suffered from a mysterious leg injury for an extended period of time, only played in nine games last season.

In those nine games, Leonard averaged 16.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists and one block in an average 23.3 minutes per game. Notably, Leonard’s statistics per-36 minutes were in line with his numbers from the 2016-17 season, so there is reason to believe that he could still produce at his elite level when his leg felt right. But too often, Leonard was limited to short minutes and eventually shut himself down for the season, citing his lingering leg injury.

Leonard has had months to rehab his injury and, if healthy, could have a big-time season with the Toronto Raptors after the team acquired him in a trade with the San Antonio Spurs. There are still questions about the severity of Leonard’s injury, whether he will be able to regain his elite form from previous seasons and whether he will embrace his role with Toronto on the final year of his contract. However, after playing in just nine games in a drama-filled season with San Antonio, there is plenty of reason to believe that Leonard could have a big bounce-back season.

Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers

Fultz had arguably the most confusing and mysterious rookie campaign for any notable player in recent memory. Fultz entered the NBA as the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft and had few limitations in his game.

However, during the offseason, it became apparent that Fultz was suffering from some sort of injury to his shoulder that was severely impacting his jump shot. Fultz, his representatives and the 76ers organization offered several conflicting explanations of the apparent injury and how it would be treated. Fultz ultimately missed the vast majority of his rookie season as he rehabbed this mysterious injury. He was healthy enough to participate in the postseason but only played a minor role after missing the majority of the regular season and failing to fully overcome the issues that plagued him.

There are differing accounts of what caused the issue and some believe that the problem isn’t physical but rather mental. Reports have come out this offseason that Fultz has made significant progress in fixing the issue impacting his shooting form. Renowned trainer Drew Hanlen is confident that Fultz will demonstrate this upcoming season that his shot has been fixed and that he will show why he was the consensus No. 1 pick in 2017. If Hanlen is correct, Fultz offers the 76ers a dynamic skill set that they certainly need as they move forward in their climb up the Eastern Conference ranks.

Jabari Parker, Chicago Bulls

Selected No. 2 overall in the 2014 NBA Draft, Parker has yet to fulfill the lofty expectations that following him to the pro level. Parker has suffered two ACL tears in his short NBA career and is now trying to prove that he can stay healthy and consistently produce at the level many expected when he first entered the league.

Parker joins the Chicago Bulls this offseason after the Milwaukee Bucks essentially agreed to let him move on without interfering. The Bulls lacked a viable forward and took a well-reasoned gamble that Parker could be a solution for them. Parker still has a good amount of explosiveness and an intriguing offensive game. Parker has failed to develop any part of his game to the point that would make him a reliable contributor on either end of the court but at his age and with his set of skills, it’s reasonable to believe that he could continue developing and improving.

The issue with Parker at this point is the injury history, the fact that he is probably better suited to play power forward than small forward and his flimsy defense. If Parker can stay healthy and make sizable improvements defensively, he will be a valuable addition for the Bulls. Parker’s teammate, Zach LaVine, faces a similar situation this upcoming season and could be considered a bounce-back candidate in his own right.

Isaiah Thomas, Denver Nuggets

It may seem like it was a long time ago, but Thomas was a legitimate MVP candidate in the 2016-17 NBA season. Thomas averaged an eye-popping 28.9 points, 2.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while shooting 46.3 from the field and 37.9 from three-point range. Thomas was the engine of the Boston Celtics’ offensive attack and made such a significant impact on offense that it covered up all of his defensive shortcomings.

However, Thomas played through a significant hip injury in Boston’s playoff run, which has subsequently required two surgeries to address. Thomas was unable to overcome his injury issues last season with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers, which resulted in him taking a one-year veterans minimum contract with the Denver Nuggets. There is optimism that Thomas’ most recent operation and rehab will help him make a significant recovery and allow him to produce at the level he achieved with the Celtics. If Thomas is relatively healthy, he’ll have the chance to help lead a potent Denver offense that could benefit from his playmaking and isolation scoring ability.

Carmelo Anthony, Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have taken a lot of heat for failing to retain Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah Moute and replacing them with Anthony. Anthony is coming off a rocky season with the Oklahoma City Thunder, which turned to Anthony for additional scoring and floor-spacing.

Anthony was never able to fit into the Thunder’s offense, which is largely dominated by Russell Westbrook and now Paul George as well. He couldn’t find the range on his jump shot for long stretches of the season, which is what the Thunder needed the most from him.

Anthony now joins a Rockets team that prides itself on moving the ball and manufacturing wide open looks from beyond the arc. If Anthony can find the range on his jumper and maintain at least passable defense within the team’s defensive schemes, he could be a nice boost for the Rockets. However, the likelihood at this point is that any offensive contributions Anthony brings will be outweighed by his inability to switch on defense. The Rockets nearly upset the Golden State Warriors last postseason with their collective ability to switch every matchup effectively with the help of defenders like Ariza and Mbah Moute. That sort of scheme can’t be replicated with this roster as it stands today, which means Anthony will really have to make a significant impact on the offensive end.

Danilo Gallinari, Los Angeles Clippers

Gallinari has been plagued by injuries throughout his career and last season was no exception. Gallinari only managed to play in 21 games as he suffered two glute injuries and fractured his right hand later in the season.

Gallinari was relatively effective in the time he did play last season though his shooting percentages were mostly down. Gallinari makes for an interesting fit alongside Tobias Harris in the Clippers’ frontcourt considering both are strong offensive contributors and each can play either forward position depending on the matchups. Gallinari is under contract through next season at roughly $21-22 million annually.

Gallinari having a bounce-back season could have big implications for the Clippers both on and off the court. If Gallinari can produce consistently he could help lead the Clippers to a playoff berth, which many forecast as unlikely considering how absurdly deep the Western Conference is. Additionally, if Gallinari can rehabilitate his value, it will become easier for the Clippers to move his expiring contract after this season should it be a prerequisite to bringing in two star free agents with the significant cap space the Clippers are projected to have. The Clippers have their sights set on Kawhi Leonard, who could be enticed by the promise of bringing in another max-worthy free agent.

*****

These are just some of the many players that are hoping for a bounce-back season. Keep the conversation going and let me on Twitter (@JBlancarteNBA) know who you think could be set for a bounce-back season.

Jesse Blancarte is a Deputy Editor for Basketball Insiders. He is also an Attorney and a member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association.

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What We Learned: Eastern Conference Week 4

What did we learn about the Eastern Conference this week? Jonathon Gryniewicz takes a look in the most recent edition of Basketball Insiders’ “What We Learned” series.

Jonathon Gryniewicz

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It’s not even a month into the NBA season, but the 2020-21 Eastern Conference has already looked super competitive, with 14 teams within six games of each other. There’s bound to be some separation in the coming weeks, don’t expect any team to go down easy.

But which have paced the East? Who’s flopped? Let’s take a look.

The New Look Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets big three of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and the newly acquired James Harden recently played their first game together against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The back-and-forth game ended in a double-overtime, 147-135 Nets loss. The three of them had plenty of time on the court together and divvied up the scoring; Durant scored 38 points on 25 shots in 50 minutes; Irving 37 points on 28 shots in 37 minutes; and Harden 21 points on 14 shots in 51 minutes.

But, outside of the box score, what did we learn about this team from their first performance?

You never want to jump to conclusions, but it’s easy to see that their offense could be dominant. When those three were on the court together, Harden served as the de facto point guard while Irving and Durant took their turns in isolation situations. Of course, in such an iso-based offense, there wasn’t much player movement beyond the trio, but they are so good at taking their own man off the dribble they can always get a good shot. What should make them even harder to guard is the fact that they’re all prolific three-point shooters; two can space at the three point line, while the other can use that extra space to either score themselves or collapse the defense and kick it outside.

Of course, there’s some work to be done. Harden and Irving combined for nine of the team’s 16 turnovers, while each of the three took their fair share of shots maybe just a bit too early in the shot clock. Defensively, Brooklyn is a major work-in-progress. Their closing lineup of Harden, Durant, Irving, Jeff Green and Joe Harris would appear to be solid but doesn’t offer much in terms of switchability and consistent rim protection. Beyond that, there isn’t much to be excited about.

Depth could also be an issue. They recently added Norvel Pelle to compete with two-way rookie Reggie Perry for backup center minutes. The team may have to look into an addition on the wing, too; while they currently roster Bruce Brown, Landry Shamet and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, the three are young and, so far this season, have proven inconsistent at best. A veteran that could provide some bench stability should be the priority.

Kendrick Nunn is Emerging for the Miami HEAT

In recent days, Kendrick Nunn has played his best basketball in nearly a year.

The 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up, Nunn struggled in the Orlando Bubble last season as he saw a continually diminished role in Miami’s run to the NBA Finals. He started this season on a similar note, as he averaged only 5.5 points and played in just six of the HEAT’s first 12 games.

But, with Jimmy Butler and other key players dealing with injury, Nunn has seen a resurgence. In Miami’s last six games, not only has he played heavy minutes, but Nunn has flourished to the tune of 17.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He’s also shot 37.8 percent from three and 50 percent from the floor.

Of course, there’s the question of the competition. Nunn’s success has come against the Nets aforementioned suspect defense, as well as the Detroit Pistons and Toronto Raptors, two teams that have struggled mightily to start the year. Still, the spark he’s shown should help him maintain a role going forward, even after Butler and the rest return to the court.

If he can maintain hold down a role, or at least a bit of that spark, Nunn could prove a massive boon for Miami, whose offense has been pretty mediocre in the early going.

The Indiana Pacers Injury Woes 

Under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren, the Pacers’ 2020-21 season has seen a terrific start. Through 12 games, Indiana is  8-4 and have played a fun, up-tempo brand of basketball.

That said, they’ve had to deal with a lot on the injury front. After they netted Caris LeVert in the four-team blockbuster that sent Harden to Brooklyn, a mass was found on one of LeVert’s kidneys and he has since been ruled out indefinitely.

Myles Turner, meanwhile, just returned from a two-game absence due to an avulsion fracture in his right hand. In his absence, the Pacers’ defense just didn’t look the same, giving up 129 and 124 points to the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, respectively. The team started the season without Jeremy Lamb and has since lost T.J. Warren to a foot injury that is expected to hold him out for most of the season as well.

No team can lose two starters and expect to continue playing at the same level. If they can’t get healthy, expect it to play a major role in their standing and playoff position at the end of the season.

It will be interesting to watch the East over the next month to see which teams can separate themselves. Be sure to check back for the next part of our “What We Learned” series as we continue to keep an eye on the NBA all season long.

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Miami’s Struggles About More than One Player

Drew Maresca assesses the Miami HEAT’s early-season struggles and their statistical slide from the 2019-20 campaign.

Drew Maresca

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The Miami HEAT appeared to successfully turn the corner on a quick rebuild, having advanced to the bubble’s 2020 NBA Finals. It looked as though Miami took a short cut even, rebounding from the LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh era incredibly quickly. Ultimately, they did so through smart drafting – including the selections of Bam Adebayo, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro – plus, a little luck, like the signing of Jimmy Butler and smartly sticking with Duncan Robinson.

But despite the fact that they should have improved from last season, the tide may have turned again in South Beach.

Through 15 games, the HEAT are an underwhelming 6-9 with losses in each of their last two games. Miami is also scoring fewer points per game than last season – 109.3 versus 112  – while giving up more – 113.1 against 109.1.

Miami has played the 14th-toughest schedule in the NBA, and there are some embarrassing and noteworthy loses thus far. They lost by a resounding 47 points to the Milwaukee Bucks earlier this season, with extra harsh defeats of 20 points to the lowly Detroit Pistons and the mediocre Toronto Raptors.

What’s to blame for Miami’s woes? Unfortunately for the HEAT, it’s a number of things.

First of all, they need more from a few of their stars – and it starts at the very top. Jimmy Butler was Miami’s leading scorer in 2019-20, posting 19.9 points per game. But this season, Butler is scoring just 15.8 points per game on a sub-par 44.2 percent shooting. While Butler shot poorly from three-point range last season, too (24.4 percent), he hasn’t connected on a single three-pointer yet in 2020-21. This, coming from a guy who shot 34.7 percent from deep in 2018-19 and 35 percent in 2017-18.

But it’s not just his lack of scoring that’s hurting. Butler is also collecting fewer assists and rebounds as well. He’s averaging only 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, down from 6.7 ad 6.0 last season.

However, Butler’s main struggle this season has nothing to do with any statistic or slump. Butler has missed seven straight games due to COVID-19 protocols. Although to go-scorer wasn’t playing particularly well prior to isolating from the team – scoring in single digits twice – the HEAT are always in better shape if their leader takes the floor with them.

It’s not just Butler either. Tyler Herro also needs to regain his bubble form, at least as far as shooting is concerned. After connecting on 38.9 percent on 5.4 three-point attempts in 2019-20, he’s sinking only 30.2 percent of his 5.3 three-point attempts per game this season.

While Herro is scoring more – 17.2 points per game this season – and doing so more efficiently, he’s doesn’t pose the same threat from deep this season. So while he’s sure to pick it up sooner than later, he must do so to put more pressure on opposing defense.

It’s fair to assume Herro will solve his long-distance shooting woes, but the fact that he’s also struggling from the free throw line is concerning because it speaks more to his form. Herro is still well above the league average, connecting on 76.5 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe, but he shot a scorching 87 percent on free throw attempts last season.

So what’s behind the slump? More importantly, which Herro can the HEAT count on for the remainder of 2020-21? As much as Herro is on track to grow into an incredible player, Miami needs his efficiency to return to last season’s form if they expect to compete. But like Butler, a major part of Herro’s struggles are off the court.

Herro is currently dealing with an injury, having missed the last five games with neck spasms. Coach Erik Spoelstra noted that giving the injured Herro so many minutes before his big layoff likely exacerbated his injuries.

“There’s no telling for sure if this is why Tyler missed these games,” Spoelstra told the South Florida SunSentinel. “But it definitely didn’t help that he had to play and play that many minutes. We didn’t have anybody else at that point. If he didn’t play, then we would have had seven.”

But the HEAT’s struggles are about more than any one player – and that’s a big part of what makes Miami, Miami.

Still, their team stats are equally puzzling, like that the Miami HEAT currently ranks 20th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. In 2019-20, they were 7th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. Obviously, something isn’t translating from last year, but what is it that’s missing?

Firstly, the HEAT are only the 18th best three-point shooting in terms of percentage. Last season, Miami was 2nd by shooting 37.9 percent. Herro returning to his old self should help quite a bit, and Butler making at least a few threes should improve spacing, too.

But it’s not just three-point shooting as the HEAT ranked last in field goal attempts last season, tallying just 84.4 attempts per game. And while they’re last again this season, they’ve managed to average even fewer attempts per game (81.7) despite maintaining nearly all of their roster.

The HEAT are also last in offensive rebounding, which translates to fewer field goal attempts and fewer points. And while Miami was 29th in offensive rebounds last season, they’re corralling 2.1 fewer rebounds this season (6.4) than in  2019-20 (8.5). What’s more, Miami is now last in total rebounds with only 40.9 per game. A number that also represents a fairly significant change as the HEAT were 17th a season ago with 44.4 per game – whew!

Lastly, Miami is turning the ball over more often than nearly any other team – sorry, Chicago – in 2020-21. During the prior campaign, the HEAT were barely middle of the pack, turning the ball over 14.9 times per game, a mark that left them 18th-best in the league. This season, they’re 29th and turning the ball over 17.7 times per game – dead last in terms of turnovers per 100 possessions.

It’s not all bad news for the HEAT, though. Bam Adebayo looks great so far, posting 20.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. Second-year stud Kendrick Nunn is averaging 21.5 points on 56 percent shooting through the past four games; while Duncan Robinson is still a flame thrower, shooting 44.4 percent on 8.4 three-point attempts per game.

The HEAT’s upside is still considerable, but it’s easy to wonder if they captured magic in a bottle last season.

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NBA Daily: Lonzo Ball Presents Difficult Decision For Pelicans

Lonzo Ball is struggling early in his fourth NBA season, leaving the Pelicans questioning whether he will be a part of the team’s long-term plans moving forward.

Garrett Brooks

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Lonzo Ball and the New Orleans Pelicans failed to reach an extension prior to the deadline entering the 2020-21 NBA season – which made this season an important year for the former second overall pick to prove his worth.

But things have not gone according to plan for Ball. Originally acquired by the Pelicans in the Anthony Davis trade, Ball has failed to get going early in the current season. After a few years of what seemed like positive progression in the guard’s shooting stroke, this 2021 has brought up the same questions that surrounded Ball in his earlier scouting reports.

In his first three seasons, Lonzo saw his three-point accuracy increase each year. It started at a 30.5 percent accuracy rate and had jumped to an impressive 37.5 by his third NBA season, 2019-20.

Now well into his biggest campaign yet, he sits below 30 percent for the first time in his career, though there is a lot of time left to see that number increase. If Ball expects to be part of the Pelicans’ long-term plans, improvement is absolutely vital.

Obviously, shooting is a key part of the NBA game today, especially as a guard. Simply put, a player needs to give his team the proper floor spacing needed to maximize their scoring output in an offensively driven league.

That point is especially true for Ball, who needs to prove he can play alongside franchise cornerstones Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. Both players are showing the skillset to be a dominant one-two punch for years to come, and the biggest need around them is proper floor spacing.

So even with all the positives Ball brings to the defensive side of the floor and as a playmaker, he cannot fit alongside Williamson and Ingram unless he’s a threat to hit shots from behind the arc. He’s obviously trying to prove himself in that regard as he has never averaged more three-point shots per game than he currently is – and yet, the result has been concerning.

When the two sides failed to reach an extension this offseason, it was abundantly clear that the Pelicans needed to see consistency before they’d tie long-term cap space to the guard. In the early going of the season, Ball is perhaps playing his most inconsistent basketball since his rookie campaign with the Los Angeles Lakers.

But will the Pelicans benefit from not signing Ball prior to the season? Maybe even by getting him to agree to a team-friendly contract if his struggles continue all year?

That seems highly unlikely. First off, not all teams are as desperate for a good shooting guard as the Pelicans are. As previously stated, Williamson and Ingram are in place as the franchise cornerstones. That means every player brought in on a long deal from here on out is brought in with the plan to fit alongside the forward combination.

Most teams with cap space don’t have the luxury of already having two franchise cornerstones in place. That means they are more likely to build around a player they sign – that’s especially true for a player that will hit free agency at a young age as will be the case with Ball.

While there’s almost no way the Pelicans won’t make a qualifying offer to Ball this offseason, it becomes a whole different question when pondering if they’ll match any contract he signs, depending on the financials involved.

He’ll offer significantly more value to another franchise than he might to the Pelicans because of the fit. The New York Knicks, for example, will be among the teams with cap space this offseason, they could see Ball as a player they can build things around moving forward.

That instantly makes him much more valued by the Knicks than he currently would be by the Pelicans. Of course, New Orleans would maintain their right to match the contract, but what good would it be if he isn’t going to fit next to the stars of the team? At no point will he be prioritized over the likes of Williamson and Ingram, which means he’s on a ticking clock to prove he can play alongside them as the team continues its ascension.

The first step could be adjustments to the rotation that sees Ball play more of the traditional point guard role with the rock in his hands. This isn’t easy for head coach Stan Van Gundy to do though as Ingram and Williamson thrive with the ball in their hands.

In all likelihood, Ball’s future in New Orleans will hinge on his consistency as a shooter, which, contrary to popular belief, he has shown the ability to do in the past. First off, confidence and staying engaged are keys; while Ball has struggled with both of those things in his early NBA seasons.

The second is an adjustment to his tendencies. Instead of settling for the spot-up opportunity every time it is presented, Ball would benefit from attacking the closeout more often and maximizing the chances that come from doing so.

Those options are in areas like finding the next open man for a three-pointer, getting to the free-throw line and finishing at the rim instead of hitting the deep shot. If he does these things, he’ll quickly find himself facing less aggressive closeouts and will be more confident in his game. Naturally, those things could lead to a more successful shooting number as the season continues on.

Ball is as talented as they come and it’s understandable why the Pelicans want to slide him in behind the two franchise forwards they have. The unfortunate reality is that time is running out on pass-first guard’s big chance to prove it’s the right move for the Pelicans moving forward.

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