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NBA Daily: Why The Boston Hype?

The Celtics’ hype train got rolling a bit during the NBA’s hiatus. Matt John explains why many seem higher on Boston than they were before, and why that train may still need some brakes.

Matt John

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Excuse me while I do my best Carnac the Magnificent impression. *Puts an envelope to his forehead* The Milwaukee Bucks, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Los Angeles Clippers.

“Name the three teams most likely to be crowned champion of the 2019-20 NBA season.”

Okay that bit might be way too old for you youngins to get, and honestly, that may have been the worst possible tribute to such a classic sketch, but you know what we’re getting at here. When people think about the safest picks to win it all this season, it’s those three without question. With Golden State’s juggernaut down for the count, the Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers have stood out as the three teams most likely to be the last one standing when (or if) the season finishes.

Yet, there seems to be a question that’s grown exponentially since the NBA’s hiatus – “Why not Boston?”

When word got out that the season was going to be resumed after all, national media types started picking the Celtics to be the surprise team to come out of the east. Shortly after that, gambling odds started to favor them a little more too. This narrative became so popular that, in their case, the term surprise in surprise pick didn’t sound accurate anymore. The Bucks were (and still are) the safe pick to win the Eastern Conference, but the Celtics suddenly became the sexy pick.

In all fairness, when you compare them to the crème de la crème in the NBA, they split the season series with the three top teams in the league – although that will change when Boston and Milwaukee face off on Friday – and five of those games were must-watch thrillers. The only exception being when the Celtics spanked the Lakers on Martin Luther King Day.

So, is the growing hype around Boston justified? Yes and no. The Celtics have for the most part been an excellent squad this season – impressive seeing how much firepower they lost, especially on the defensive side – but they have been hot and cold. One game they are giving the Lakers all they can handle on LA’s home turf – without Kemba Walker no less – and the next they are blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead to the very undermanned Brooklyn Nets at home. The good stretches have outweighed the bad stretches, but the bad stretches still stand out.

That of course explains why Boston is viewed as more of an underdog compared to their three elite competitors instead of being right there with them. Still, the fact that the Celtics have risen up to the occasion against the best of the best does make picking them to make the finals appear not as irrational as some may think.

Really, the fascination with the Celtics stems from the fact that their ceiling remains somewhat mysterious. We still haven’t really gotten to see what this squad looks like together when everyone is healthy. Boston’s top four players – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, and Kemba – have played all of 19 games together. Just as one would come back from injury, another seemingly would get hurt shortly before, during, or after the return.

The shame of it all is that when those four have shared the floor, the Celtics have a scorching near-121 offensive rating together – the best among Boston’s four-man lineups that have played at least 200 minutes. By the way, just to point this out, the fact that the Celtics have gone 31-14 in games with at least one of their core four out speaks volumes as to how invaluable Marcus Smart has been for them.

The Celtics don’t have a duo of players on their squad that match the talent of LeBron James/Anthony Davis or Kawhi Leonard/Paul George or James Harden/Russell Westbrook, but they may very well have the best quartet of players in the league. No one else has a trio of players averaging 20 points a game, and having another scorer who averages 17+ on top of that is a rare luxury. The only other team that comes close to what the Celtics have among their top four guys scoring-wise is the Clippers, and we all know what their goal is.

When rotations shorten, having multiple guys who are capable of putting up big scoring numbers on any given night is incredibly crucial. Now that Boston will have all four of their top guys in ship shape, that gives them an almost unfair amount of cushion compared to their rivals both in their conference and around the league.

That’s not all. There’s something else worth bringing up about Boston and their health that many have overlooked. Let’s start with Jayson Tatum’s ascension.

The sublime numbers that Tatum put up in February – 30.7 points on 49/48/77 splits – was very much the talk of the town before the hiatus. Let’s not beat around the bush here- that’s the kind of production you’d expect from a young superstar. We all believed Tatum had that potential, and we were seeing him fulfill it.

The only problem was that it coincided with the worst stretch of Kemba’s career. An ill-fated knee injury took away a lot of his burst, which definitely hurts someone like Kemba Walker. When Walker wasn’t recuperating from his knee injury, he was not himself. From Jan. 28 to the hiatus, he was averaging 16.3 points on 32/31/83 splits. He made a valiant effort to play, but let’s not beat around the bush here either- He stunk.

With the hiatus, Kemba’s had the time to heal up. While it’s no guarantee that we’re going to see the same old Kemba we’re used to, and that knee is definitely a concern, combining what he was before his knee started acting up with Tatum’s dominance makes the Celtics that much more lethal. The Celtics have taken it slow with their star point guard since the Bubble began, and their efforts look like they haven’t been in vain.

Sadly Boston is all too familiar with the “When they get (player X) back in (Y amount of time), imagine how good they are going to be!” mindset. There’s no guarantee that Kemba will be Kemba when the postseason starts, but because we know what he can do when he’s 100 percent, the Celtics’ playoff potential skyrockets putting him with what they already have.

So, should Boston enter the season at full strength, there’s a lot to like about them, but there’s still a reason why they are not put in the same tier as Milwaukee or either of the LA teams. That starts with their depth. Enough has been said about how good their four best guys are when they play together, but the rest of the roster outside of Smart and Daniel Theis is a question mark.

The Celtics’ top six of Tatum, Brown, Walker, Hayward, Smart, and Theis is capable of winning a championship, but a title team can’t consist of just six rotation players. There are too many minutes for just six guys. Outside of them, it’s hard to say who will fill out the rest of the rotation. The most likely candidates will be the likes of:

  • Enes Kanter: Has been uncharacteristically injury-prone this season. When healthy, he’s been his usual post-dominant self, and the Celtics have done a good job minimizing his defensive lapses – He somehow has a better Defensive Real Plus-Minus than Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard – but he’s been badly exploited in the wrong matchup as usual.
  • Grant Williams: Fits perfectly into Boston’s scheme of playing multi-positional wings with defensive versatility. He’s even shown he has the strength to handle players bigger than him. Even though he’s shot 35 percent from three since hitting his first one on Dec. 9, opponents will leave him open until he can make them pay.
  • Brad Wanamaker: Inconsistency has been his biggest issue. His month by month numbers have been a roller coaster all season. There’s no telling which Wanamaker Boston would get if they played him.
  • Robert Williams III: A hip injury got in the way of what was supposed to be a baptism by fire type of season. The physical tools are definitely there for him to be an exceptional rim protector, but he’s been prone to brain farts and block chasing. The playoffs would be a perfect time for him to learn, but his raw skillset could make him a disaster to play.
  • Semi Ojeleye: In and out of the rotation all season. He brings defensive muscle and even an improved three-ball. He’s even had his moments at times. Besides that, not much progress has been made on his part.

There are other options, but those are the most qualified ones the Celtics have at their disposal, and as you can see, it’s not cut and dry. If one or two of those options pan out well, then Boston should be right there. However, because there are no answers, we’ll just have to see who fits best with what they want to do.

The Celtics could potentially have a lot going for them when the postseason arrives. There are X-Factors that could result in a first-round exit or a trip to the finals. Their health and their depth could play a huge role on how these playoffs turn out. If they play their cards right, Boston might just turn into the team everyone thought they would be.

Last year that is.

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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NBA Daily: Examining Michael Porter Jr.’s Ascension

Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging over 25 points per game and looks like a future All-NBA player. Bobby Krivitsky examines Porter’s ascent and the questions that come with it.

Bobby Krivitsky

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Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to new heights.

In the wake of Murray’s ACL tear in mid-April, Porter’s playing time has gone from 30.6 minutes per contest to 35.7, while his shots per game have risen from 12.6 per game to 16.5. The increased responsibility has fueled his ascent. He’s knocking down 56.3 percent of those attempts. He’s taking 8.2 threes per game and making a blistering 50 percent of them. As a result, Porter’s gone from averaging 17.5 points per game to 25.1. He’s also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and blocking almost one shot per contest.

At the time of Murray’s injury, the Denver Nuggets were in fourth place in the Western Conference. They remain there now, 9-4 in his absence, and they boast the eighth-highest net rating in the NBA.

The only way for the Nuggets to fall from fourth would be if they lost their four remaining games and the Dallas Mavericks won their final five contests because the Mavericks have the tiebreaker since they won the season series. On the more realistic end of the spectrum, Denver sits just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Clippers, who occupy the third seed in the West. The Nuggets won their season series against the Clippers, meaning they’d finish in third if the two teams ended the regular season with the same record.

There’s a bevy of questions surrounding Porter’s recent play that need to be asked but cannot get answered at the moment. That starts with whether this is anything more than a hot streak. While it’s impossible to say definitively, it’s reasonable to believe Porter can consistently and efficiently produce about 25 points per game. He was the second-ranked high school prospect in 2017 and entered his freshman year at Missouri firmly in the mix for the top pick in the 2018 NBA draft. That was thanks in large part to his offensive prowess as a 6-10 wing with a smooth shot that’s nearly impossible to block because of the elevation he gets when he shoots. 

A back injury cost him all but 53 minutes of his collegiate career and caused him to fall to the 14th pick in the draft. He ended up in an ideal landing spot, going to a well-run organization that’s also well aware of its barren track record luring star players looking to change teams, making it vital for the Nuggets to hit on their draft picks. 

Porter’s first year in the NBA was exclusively dedicated to the rehab process and doing everything possible to ensure he can have a long, healthy and productive career. Last season, finally getting a chance to play, he showed off the tantalizing talent that made him a top prospect but only took seven shots per game while trying to fit in alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant.

More experience, including battling against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, an offseason, albeit a truncated one, to prepare for a more substantial role with Grant joining the Detroit Pistons and Millsap turning 36 this year, helped propel Porter. 

But for the Nuggets, before Murray’s injury, the perception was that even though they weren’t the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, they were a legitimate title contender. How far can they go if Porter’s consistently contributing about 25 points and over six rebounds per game while effectively playing the role of a second star alongside Jokic? 

It seems fair to cross Denver off the list of title contenders. But, if Porter continues to capably play the role of a second star alongside Jokic when doing so becomes more challenging in the postseason, the Nuggets can advance past a team like the Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers. And at a minimum, they’d have the ability to make life difficult for whoever they had to face in the second round of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the timing of Murray’s ACL tear, which happened in mid-April, means there’s a legitimate possibility he misses all of next season. Denver’s increased reliance on Porter is already allowing a young player with All-NBA potential to take on a role that’s closer to the one he’s assumed his whole life before making it to the sport’s highest level. If the Nuggets are counting on him to be the second-best player on a highly competitive team in the Western Conference next season, it’ll be fascinating to see what heights he reaches and how far they’re able to go as a team.

Theoretically, Porter’s growth could make it difficult for Denver to reacclimate Murray. But given Jokic’s unselfish style of play, there’s room for both of them to be satisfied by the volume of shots they’re getting. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have to wait, potentially another season, but Jokic is 26-years-old, Murray 24, Porter 22. When Denver has their Big Three back together, they could be far more potent while still being able to enjoy a lengthy run as legitimate title contenders.

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NBA Daily: D’Angelo Russell Back on Track

D’Angelo Russell lost much of the 2020-21 season to injury. Drew Maresca explains why his return will surprise people around the league.

Drew Maresca

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D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves last February, just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the entire season. But we’ve yet to see what Russell can really do in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves acquired Russell in late February in exchange for a future first-round pick – which transitions this season if they pick later than third – a 2021 second-round pick and Andrew Wiggins.

Sidenote: For those keeping score at home, the Timberwolves currently have the third-worst record in the league with five games remaining. It would behoove Minnesota to lose as many of their remaining games as possible to keep their 2021 pick. If the pick does not transition this season, it becomes unrestricted in 2020.

Trying to turn an owed pick into an unprotected future first is usually the wrong move; but in this instance, it’s better to keep the high first-rounder this year with an understanding that your 2022 pick will probably fall in or around the middle of the lottery.

The thinking around the deal was that Minnesota could qualify for the playoffs as soon as this season by swapping Wiggins’ contract for a young, talented lead guard in Russell. It has not played out as planned.

COVID resulted in a play stoppage shortly after the deal, robbing Russell of the opportunity to ramp up with his new team. When the NBA returned to finish the 2019-20 season, the Timberwolves failed to qualify for bubble play – and considering the US was still battling a global pandemic, Russell couldn’t easily practice with his new teammates and/or coaches.

The 2020-21 season began weirdly, too. The NBA proceeded with an abbreviated training camp and preseason. And while this impacted all teams, Russell was additionally hindered by the decision.

Ready or not, the season began. In 2020-21, Russell is averaging a near-career low in minutes per game (28.2) across just 36 games. He’s tallying 19.1 points per game on 43.6% shooting and a career-best 38.8% on three-point attempts. He’s also he’s posting a near career-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7 to 2.8).

Despite Russell’s contributions, the Timberwolves have failed to meet expectations. Far from the playoff squad they hoped to be, Minnesota is in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft. So what has gone wrong in Minneapolis?

Russell’s setbacks are fairly obvious. In addition to the lack of preparation with his teammates and coaches, Russell was diagnosed with a “loose body” in his knee, requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in February. As a result, he missed 27 consecutive games. Russell returned on April 5, but head coach Chris Finch revealed that he’d been on a minutes restriction until just recently.

Minnesota is clearly being cautious with Russell. Upon closer review, Russell has been restricted to under 30 minutes per game in all of his first 10 games back. Since then, Russell is averaging 31 minutes per game including an encouraging 37 minutes on May 5 in a four-point loss to Memphis.

Since returning from knee surgery, Russell is averaging 27 minutes per game across 16 games. Despite starting 19 of the team’s first 20 games, he hadn’t started in any game since returning – until Wednesday.

On the whole, Russell’s impact is about the same as it was prior to the injury, which should be encouraging to Timberwolves’ fans. He’s scoring slightly less (18.8 points since returning vs. 19.3 prior), shooting better from the field (44.9% since returning vs 42.6%% prior) and has been just slightly worse from three-point range (37.4% since vs. 39.9 prior). He’s dishing out more assists per game (6.5 since vs. 5.1 prior), too, and he posted three double-digit assist games in his last five contents – a feat achieved only once all season prior to his last five games.

Despite playing more and dropping more dimes, there’s still room to improve. Looking back to his career-bests, Russell averaged 23.1 points per game in 2019-20 in 33 games with Golden State (23.6) and 12 games with Minnesota (21.7).

But his most impactful season came in 2018-19 with the Brooklyn Nets. That season, Russell averaged 21.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, leading the Nets to the playoffs and earning his first trip to the All-Star game. He looked incredibly comfortable, playing with supreme confidence and flashing the ability to lead a playoff team.

At his best, Russell is a dynamic playmaker. The beauty of Russell is that he can also play off the ball. He has a quick release on his jumper and impressive range. His game is not predicated on athleticism, meaning he should stay at his peak for longer than guys like De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant.

And while he’s been in the league for what feels like ever (six seasons), Russell just turned 25 approximately two months ago. Granted, comparing anyone to Steph Curry is unwise, but Curry wasn’t Steph Curry yet at 25. Former MVP Steve Nash hadn’t yet averaged double-digits (points) at 25. Twenty-five is also an inflection point for Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. And the list goes on.

To be fair, Russell was drafted at 19 so he’s more acclimated to the league at this age than most, but his game will continue expanding nonetheless. He’ll develop trickier moves, become stronger and grow his shooting range. And a good deal of that growth should be evident as soon as next season since he’ll be fully healed from knee surgery and have a full offseason and training camp to finally work with teammates and coaches.

So while Minnesota’s 2020-21 season was incredibly bleak, their future is quite bright – and much of it has to do with the presence of Russell.

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NBA AM: Is This It for Indiana?

Following their major drop-off, Matt John explains why the Pacers trying to get back to where they were may not be the best decision.

Matt John

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Remember when, following the maligned trade of Paul George, the sky was the limit for the Indiana Pacers? The 2017-18 Pacers were one of the best stories in the NBA that season because they made their opponents work for their victories, and they put on a spectacle every night.

It’s hard to believe that all transpired three whole years ago. When Cleveland eliminated Indiana in a very tight first-round series, I asked if having the exciting season that they did – when many thought it would turn out the opposite – was going to benefit them in the long run. Three years later, this happens.

We were getting plenty of smoke about the Pacers’ drama behind-the-scenes beforehand, and now, we have seen the fire firsthand. More and more reports indicate that the crap has hit the fan. Indiana has seemingly already had enough of Nate Bjorkgren in only his first year as his coach. When you see the results they’ve had this season compared to the last three, it’s not hard to see why.

The Pacers have routinely found themselves in the 4-5 playoff matchup for the last three years. Sadly, despite their fight – and, to be fair, they had pretty awful injury luck the past two postseasons – they haven’t been able to get over the hump in the first round. They may not have been in the elite tier, but they weren’t slouches either. So, seeing them not only fail to take the next step but look more and more likely for the play-in is as discouraging as it gets. Especially after they started the season 6-2.

If these reports about the tensions between the players and Bjorkgren are real, then this has already become a lost season for the Pacers. It’s too late in the season to make any major personnel changes. At this point, their best route is just to cut their losses and wait until this summer to think over what the next move is.

In that case, let’s take a deep breath. This has been a weird season for everyone. Every aspect minus the playoffs has been shorter than usual since last October. Everything was shortened from the offseason to the regular season. Oh, and COVID-19 has played a role as the season has turned out, although COVID-19 has probably been the least of Indy’s problems. Let’s think about what next season would look like for Indiana.

TJ Warren comes back with a clean bill of health. Caris Levert gets more acquainted with the team and how they run. Who knows? Maybe they finally resolve the Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis situation once and for all. A new coach can come aboard to steady the ship, and it already looks like they have an idea for who that’s going to be

Should they run it back, there’s a solid chance they can get back to where they were before. But that’s sort of the problem to begin with. Even if this recent Pacers’ season turns out to be just a negative outlier, their ceiling isn’t all too high anyway. A team that consists of Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Caris Levert as their core four is a solid playoff team. Having Turner, Doug McDermott, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb, and the Holiday brothers rounds out a solid playoff team. Anyone who takes a good look at this roster knows that this roster is a good one. It’s not great though.

Just to be clear, Indiana has plenty of ingredients for a championship team. They just don’t have the main one: The franchise player. Once upon a time, it looked like that may have been Oladipo, but a cruel twist of fate took that all away. This isn’t a shot at any of the quality players they have on their roster, but think of it this way.

For the next couple of years, they’re going to go up against Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. All of whom are on the same team. For potentially even longer, they’ll be going up against the likes of Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum. With the roster they have, they could make a series interesting against any one of those teams. However, it’s a rule of thumb in the NBA that the team with the best player usually wins the series. Not to mention, they’d have to beat most of the teams those players play for to go on a substantial playoff run. That’s a pretty tall order.

There’s no joy in talking about the Pacers like this because they have built this overachieving underdog from nothing more than shrewd executive work. They turned a disgruntled and expiring Paul George into Oladipo and Sabonis. Both of whom have since become two-time all-stars (and counting). They then managed to turn an expiring and hobbled Oladipo – who had no plans to return to Indiana – into the electric Levert. They also pretty much stole Brogdon and Warren away while paying very little for either of them.

That is fantastic work. The only hangup is that, as of now, it just doesn’t seem like it will be enough. But, doubt and skepticism are things Indiana’s had thrown their way consistently since 2017. Many thought their approach to trading Paul George would blow up in their face, and since then, they’ve done everything in their power to make everyone eat their words.

Kevin Pritchard’s got his work cut out for him this summer. This season will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than performance ruined by both the wrong coaching hire and an unusual season that produced negatively skewed results. But at this point, Pritchard’s upcoming course of action this summer shouldn’t be about getting his team back to where they were, but deciding whether he can get them a step or two further than that by adding more to what they have or starting over completely.

Indiana’s had a rough go of it in this COVID-shortened season, but their disappointing play may have little to no bearing on where they go from here.

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