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NBA Daily: Why The Boston Hype?

The Celtics’ hype train got rolling a bit during the NBA’s hiatus. Matt John explains why many seem higher on Boston than they were before, and why that train may still need some brakes.

Matt John

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Excuse me while I do my best Carnac the Magnificent impression. *Puts an envelope to his forehead* The Milwaukee Bucks, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Los Angeles Clippers.

“Name the three teams most likely to be crowned champion of the 2019-20 NBA season.”

Okay that bit might be way too old for you youngins to get, and honestly, that may have been the worst possible tribute to such a classic sketch, but you know what we’re getting at here. When people think about the safest picks to win it all this season, it’s those three without question. With Golden State’s juggernaut down for the count, the Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers have stood out as the three teams most likely to be the last one standing when (or if) the season finishes.

Yet, there seems to be a question that’s grown exponentially since the NBA’s hiatus – “Why not Boston?”

When word got out that the season was going to be resumed after all, national media types started picking the Celtics to be the surprise team to come out of the east. Shortly after that, gambling odds started to favor them a little more too. This narrative became so popular that, in their case, the term surprise in surprise pick didn’t sound accurate anymore. The Bucks were (and still are) the safe pick to win the Eastern Conference, but the Celtics suddenly became the sexy pick.

In all fairness, when you compare them to the crème de la crème in the NBA, they split the season series with the three top teams in the league – although that will change when Boston and Milwaukee face off on Friday – and five of those games were must-watch thrillers. The only exception being when the Celtics spanked the Lakers on Martin Luther King Day.

So, is the growing hype around Boston justified? Yes and no. The Celtics have for the most part been an excellent squad this season – impressive seeing how much firepower they lost, especially on the defensive side – but they have been hot and cold. One game they are giving the Lakers all they can handle on LA’s home turf – without Kemba Walker no less – and the next they are blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead to the very undermanned Brooklyn Nets at home. The good stretches have outweighed the bad stretches, but the bad stretches still stand out.

That of course explains why Boston is viewed as more of an underdog compared to their three elite competitors instead of being right there with them. Still, the fact that the Celtics have risen up to the occasion against the best of the best does make picking them to make the finals appear not as irrational as some may think.

Really, the fascination with the Celtics stems from the fact that their ceiling remains somewhat mysterious. We still haven’t really gotten to see what this squad looks like together when everyone is healthy. Boston’s top four players – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, and Kemba – have played all of 19 games together. Just as one would come back from injury, another seemingly would get hurt shortly before, during, or after the return.

The shame of it all is that when those four have shared the floor, the Celtics have a scorching near-121 offensive rating together – the best among Boston’s four-man lineups that have played at least 200 minutes. By the way, just to point this out, the fact that the Celtics have gone 31-14 in games with at least one of their core four out speaks volumes as to how invaluable Marcus Smart has been for them.

The Celtics don’t have a duo of players on their squad that match the talent of LeBron James/Anthony Davis or Kawhi Leonard/Paul George or James Harden/Russell Westbrook, but they may very well have the best quartet of players in the league. No one else has a trio of players averaging 20 points a game, and having another scorer who averages 17+ on top of that is a rare luxury. The only other team that comes close to what the Celtics have among their top four guys scoring-wise is the Clippers, and we all know what their goal is.

When rotations shorten, having multiple guys who are capable of putting up big scoring numbers on any given night is incredibly crucial. Now that Boston will have all four of their top guys in ship shape, that gives them an almost unfair amount of cushion compared to their rivals both in their conference and around the league.

That’s not all. There’s something else worth bringing up about Boston and their health that many have overlooked. Let’s start with Jayson Tatum’s ascension.

The sublime numbers that Tatum put up in February – 30.7 points on 49/48/77 splits – was very much the talk of the town before the hiatus. Let’s not beat around the bush here- that’s the kind of production you’d expect from a young superstar. We all believed Tatum had that potential, and we were seeing him fulfill it.

The only problem was that it coincided with the worst stretch of Kemba’s career. An ill-fated knee injury took away a lot of his burst, which definitely hurts someone like Kemba Walker. When Walker wasn’t recuperating from his knee injury, he was not himself. From Jan. 28 to the hiatus, he was averaging 16.3 points on 32/31/83 splits. He made a valiant effort to play, but let’s not beat around the bush here either- He stunk.

With the hiatus, Kemba’s had the time to heal up. While it’s no guarantee that we’re going to see the same old Kemba we’re used to, and that knee is definitely a concern, combining what he was before his knee started acting up with Tatum’s dominance makes the Celtics that much more lethal. The Celtics have taken it slow with their star point guard since the Bubble began, and their efforts look like they haven’t been in vain.

Sadly Boston is all too familiar with the “When they get (player X) back in (Y amount of time), imagine how good they are going to be!” mindset. There’s no guarantee that Kemba will be Kemba when the postseason starts, but because we know what he can do when he’s 100 percent, the Celtics’ playoff potential skyrockets putting him with what they already have.

So, should Boston enter the season at full strength, there’s a lot to like about them, but there’s still a reason why they are not put in the same tier as Milwaukee or either of the LA teams. That starts with their depth. Enough has been said about how good their four best guys are when they play together, but the rest of the roster outside of Smart and Daniel Theis is a question mark.

The Celtics’ top six of Tatum, Brown, Walker, Hayward, Smart, and Theis is capable of winning a championship, but a title team can’t consist of just six rotation players. There are too many minutes for just six guys. Outside of them, it’s hard to say who will fill out the rest of the rotation. The most likely candidates will be the likes of:

  • Enes Kanter: Has been uncharacteristically injury-prone this season. When healthy, he’s been his usual post-dominant self, and the Celtics have done a good job minimizing his defensive lapses – He somehow has a better Defensive Real Plus-Minus than Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard – but he’s been badly exploited in the wrong matchup as usual.
  • Grant Williams: Fits perfectly into Boston’s scheme of playing multi-positional wings with defensive versatility. He’s even shown he has the strength to handle players bigger than him. Even though he’s shot 35 percent from three since hitting his first one on Dec. 9, opponents will leave him open until he can make them pay.
  • Brad Wanamaker: Inconsistency has been his biggest issue. His month by month numbers have been a roller coaster all season. There’s no telling which Wanamaker Boston would get if they played him.
  • Robert Williams III: A hip injury got in the way of what was supposed to be a baptism by fire type of season. The physical tools are definitely there for him to be an exceptional rim protector, but he’s been prone to brain farts and block chasing. The playoffs would be a perfect time for him to learn, but his raw skillset could make him a disaster to play.
  • Semi Ojeleye: In and out of the rotation all season. He brings defensive muscle and even an improved three-ball. He’s even had his moments at times. Besides that, not much progress has been made on his part.

There are other options, but those are the most qualified ones the Celtics have at their disposal, and as you can see, it’s not cut and dry. If one or two of those options pan out well, then Boston should be right there. However, because there are no answers, we’ll just have to see who fits best with what they want to do.

The Celtics could potentially have a lot going for them when the postseason arrives. There are X-Factors that could result in a first-round exit or a trip to the finals. Their health and their depth could play a huge role on how these playoffs turn out. If they play their cards right, Boston might just turn into the team everyone thought they would be.

Last year that is.

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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NBA PM: What Brooklyn Needs At The Deadline

The Brooklyn Nets are rightfully among the favorites to win the NBA championship. Garrett Brooks takes a look at what the Nets need at the deadline to give themselves the best chance to win it all.

Garrett Brooks

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As they’ve acclimated to one another, the Brooklyn Nets are finding their groove on both ends of the floor recently. While that’s bad news for the rest of the NBA, there are still things the Nets need to address before making their eventual playoff run.

Winning regular-season games is one thing, winning playoff series is a whole different animal. We know the Nets have offensive firepower like few teams in the history of the NBA. Their big three of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving can carry them to regular-season success.

If they want to maximize their chances to win a title, though, they have more moves to make to fill out the roster.

Another Frontcourt Option

The Nets have to be pleased with what they’re getting from Jeff Green in small ball lineups at the five, as well as the recent emergence of Bruce Brown too. That’s going to be a trend for this team moving forward, as it should be.

Still, there’s a lack of depth on the roster in terms of capable defensive big men that needs to be addressed before an eventual run at an NBA Championship. This is especially true because of the teams they could face on their way to a title, such as the Milwaukee Bucks, Miami HEAT and Los Angeles Lakers. Simply put, beating those teams four out of seven games with a big man rotation consisting of DeAndre Jordan and Jeff Green is just highly unlikely.

Green is a great weapon to use at the five but is far too undersized to be counted on in any given playoff series. He’ll get picked on by opposing bigs with offensive skillsets if he’s asked to play all the minutes that Jordan isn’t on the floor. While Brown has been great in his own right, asking him to defend Nikola Jokic, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol and beyond is just too big an ask.

Jordan is not the player he once was but is still a difference-maker in the right situation. Additionally, it would be ideal to add another big that has a different skill set than Jordan in order to increase the options head coach Steve Nash has with his lineups.

With a rim runner in Jordan and small ball fives in Green and Brown, the Nets need to target a versatile big man to add to the mix. Floor spacing would be ideal but isn’t necessary if they bring in someone that can make a big enough impact on the defensive end.

The ideal target will bring two key attributes to the team: The first is rim protection when called upon. The Nets don’t have a long list of strong perimeter defenders, so extra help at the rim would be much-needed. This doesn’t necessarily have to be a shot-blocker as it can also be a smart defender that mainly relies on successfully contesting shots under the rim.

Second, and perhaps most importantly, the center they target needs to be capable of switching on the defensive end. One way the Nets like to cover themselves defensively is by going switch-heavy for stretches. This allows them to play the passing lanes aggressively and often forces the opponent out of their offensive rhythm. The more capable their big men are when it comes to switching, the better this strategy will work.

Kevin Durant’s versatility on the defensive end allows the Nets to search for somebody that excels in defending multiple positions even if they may not be great as the last line of defense. Durant is a strong help defender and has the length to make things difficult at the rim. This ability is proven by the 1.8 blocks he averaged during the 2017-18 season with the Golden State Warriors.

Durant can be the help side defender when asked, but how often can he be asked to bang in the post defensively? The answer is not often.

It’s important that any addition to the frontcourt can hold their own in the post against players such as Joel Embiid or Bam Adebayo. But the harsh reality is that the Nets likely won’t have the luxury to be picky with the type of big man they add. It’ll be hard to find a player that can defend most bigs and switch on most positions throughout a game.

Given their lack of assets remaining, the Nets will need to target what they can afford on the market.

Names to keep an eye on: Thaddeus Young, Chicago Bulls; JaVale McGee, Cleveland Cavaliers; P.J. Tucker, Houston Rockets.

Depth At The Point Guard Position

With James Harden leading the way as the point guard and Kyrie Irving very capable of handling the offensive load as well, this is an easy need to overlook. Unfortunately, the Nets can’t afford to do that as the trade deadline approaches. If they can’t acquire a traditional point guard for depth, they’ll need to address it on the buyout market.

After Harden, Irving and Durant, the Nets’ core rotation does very little in terms of playmaking. In fact, DeAndre Jordan ranks next among players in the rotation for assists per game. The big three can certainly carry the load when it comes to getting players involved, but the Nets could use another veteran that’ll get their offense good looks.

Most notably, this type of move would aid them in finishing the regular season without riding their stars too hard – which they’ve already done. That versatility would be a great asset to Nash and his coaching staff in both the regular season and playoffs.

That’s without mentioning the always-existent possibility of injury or potentially-required quarantine. It’s always best to have depth and options, and that’s truer than ever in the current NBA landscape. The ideal addition would be a natural distributor capable of knocking down an open shot and holding his own on the defensive end of the floor.

That may seem like a tough sell, but it’s certainly a skill set that will be available for the right price. The Nets would do well in targeting a player that is underperforming due to circumstance. It’s fair to assume a lot of players would benefit from playing in the kind of environment the Nets are currently constructing.

Names to keep an eye on: Austin Rivers, New York Knicks; Quinn Cook, Free Agent; George Hill, Oklahoma City Thunder.

If the Nets can address these two needs they’ll be as well-rounded as any team. The added versatility and flexibility would make them that much stronger come the playoffs. While they’re finding some excellent, wonderful regular season successes, the postseason is a different beast – and the Nets, plus a rookie head coach, will need to learn how to adapt on-the-fly.

General manager Sean Marks is never truly done molding his rosters – and Spencer Dinwiddie may even be available, according to Ian Begley of SNY – so what the Nets run with today certainly isn’t final.

We know what the big three are capable of – now it’s time for the roster to be rounded out for their best chance to succeed.

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Bruce Brown Thriving As Nets’ Small Ball Center

Brooklyn has thrived with Bruce Brown playing minutes as a small ball center – and what started out as an experiment may just change the Nets’ championship aspirations for the better.

Ariel Pacheco

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The Brooklyn Nets’ trade for James Harden has proven to be worth it so far. However, their depth and size were seriously hurt as a result of the deal – so the Nets have been forced to get creative with the limited options they have. 

Enter: Bruce Brown.

Standing at a meager 6-foot-4, Brown may be the Nets’ best option at center against certain matchups. DeAndre Jordan, the starting center now that Jarrett Allen is in Cleveland, has seen his defensive capabilities decline rather drastically since his time in Lob City. He is still an elite alley-oop threat but has some lapses with effort levels. Reggie Perry is a rookie who was the 57th overall pick isn’t ready for a heavy load of minutes just yet. Nic Claxton has shown promise but has played in just two games due to injury. 

In a win against the Golden State Warriors on Feb. 13, Brown started at center with Jordan out to injury. He finished the game with 18 points and 7 rebounds. It wasn’t the first time this season Brown spent time at the center position, but it was reflective of his ever-changing role on this Nets team. 

Brown arrived this past offseason and came thought as more of a point guard. Now that the Nets have three of the best playmakers in the NBA, his role has shifted. He is practically never counted on to initiate the offense – instead, he has become the guy who does the dirty work. Think of him as the Nets’ version of Draymond Green. 

Now the small ball option at center, Brown’s strengths have been accentuated. Offensively, he has become a screen-setter and roll man, thus forming chemistry with James Harden, and has played his way into a crucial part of the rotation. Brown’s minutes at the beginning of the season were sporadic and included four DNP’s. Now he’s an invaluable piece to the Nets’ puzzle. 

When teams trap or double James Harden or Kyrie Irving, Brown is often the outlet. He catches the ball in the middle of the floor, turns and has options available to him. Able to attack the basket or make the right pass to an open guy, Brown’s decision-making has been a positive for Brooklyn. 

Defensively, Brown is one of the few Nets players who is a consistent positive on that end. He can guard multiple positions due to his strength and often defends the opposing team’s best players. While his height will never allow for him to be a full-time center, being an option for coach Steve Nash to plug in for small ball lineups is a game-changer. 

“Bruce is remarkable, I mean, I believe he mostly played point guard last year and he’s playing – what do you want to call him our center?” Said Steve Nash, per Newsday. “He’s picking and rolling and finishing with two bigs in the lane. His willingness and ability to do that is remarkable.”

Really, that’s what has been most impressive. Brown is playing a role he has never been asked to do in the NBA and thriving. He scored a career-high 29 points against the Sacramento Kings on Feb. 23. That night, he straight-up shared minutes with Jordan, which speaks to his versatility. Wherever the Nets have needed him this season, Brown has been willing and able. 

Brown’s counting stats won’t jump off a stat sheet. He’s averaging just 7.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. He’s also shooting just 22.2 percent from the three-point line but he’s made a living around the basket. A look at his shot chart shows how little he operates from outside the restricted area – and due to the attention his superstar teammates garner, he usually gets open looks right near the rim.

 

He’s also often being guarded by opposing team’s big men. In a matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, former defensive player of the year Marc Gasol guarded Brown to start the game. The role of the small ball center is not as rare as it used to be, but Bruce Brown may be the smallest guy in terms of height to fill the role. To wit, Draymond Green is 6-foot-6 and PJ Tucker is 6-foot-5. 

The Nets traded for Brown this past offseason in what looks to have been an absolute steal of a deal, giving up just Dzanan Musa and a second-round pick. Given that the inconsistent Musa is now playing overseas, it was a trade that is already providing dividends. 

But, at the end of the day, there are championship expectations in Brooklyn. While the Nets certainly have the star power to beat just about anybody, role-players who thrive in their role can often swing a game or a series come playoff time. So far, more so than nearly any other player outside of the big three, Brown’s ability to fit in wherever needed has changed the contender’s long-term outlook in a positive way.

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NBA Daily: What Should the Raptors Do at the Trade Deadline?

The Toronto Raptors are surging. Bobby Krivitsky examines whether they’ve been good enough to keep their current core intact or if they should take a different approach at the trade deadline.

Bobby Krivitsky

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After losing eight of their first 10 games to start the season, the Toronto Raptors have won 14 of their last 23 matchups, surging to fifth in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors had to quickly recharge during a truncated offseason, get acclimated to a new setting and adjust to Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher stepping into the void left by the departures of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Despite all of that, they’re scoring the 10th-most points per 100 possessions, are 13th in defensive rating and have the ninth-best net rating in the NBA.

Through Toronto’s ups and downs this season, they’ve been able to count on Fred VanVleet. After signing a four-year, $85 million contract to remain with the Raptors, the fifth-year guard from Wichita State has once again taken his game to a higher level. He’s averaging 20 points, 6.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds — all career-bests — and eighth in the NBA with 1.7 steals per contest. It’s discomforting to imagine where this team would be if he had left.

Then there’s Pascal Siakam, who’s finally shaken off a rough second-round series against the Boston Celtics last postseason and thawed from an icy start to his 2020-21 campaign. Siakam is averaging 20.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. One of the main reasons for his turnaround has been Siakam’s growth as a facilitator: those 4.8 assists represent a career-best. And, with the Raptors shifting more towards small-ball, Siakam is thriving working off a screen from guards, spotting where the defense is vulnerable and taking advantage of it.

Another crucial component of Siakam’s improvement is him playing with more energy on the defensive end. Effort can only take a defender so far, but when that individual is 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and has the strength, quickness and intelligence to guard positions one-through-five for varying amounts of time, doing so can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game.

 

 

While Siakam’s production has more of an impact on the Raptors’ ceiling than any other player on the team, Kyle Lowry, alongside VanVleet, establishes Toronto’s floor. Lowry, who turns 35 in March, is averaging 18 points, 6.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game this season. He remains the heart and soul of the team. That makes it even more impressive that, despite losing him to a thumb injury during a Feb. 16 matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto went on to win that night and again two days later, stretching their winning streak to four games (including a victory over the Philadelphia 76ers).

One major change stemming from the Raptors playing small more often is Norman Powell entering the starting lineup. He’s started his last 17 games and is averaging a team-high 21.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals. During that stretch, the sharpshooting Powell is also knocking down 44.4 percent of his 6.4 threes per game and shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. Toronto has won 10 of those 17 games.

Powell gives the Raptors more offensive firepower, allows them to play faster and, when they don’t have a traditional center on the floor, has made it easier for them to switch on defense. It’s an adjustment that’s worked so well for Toronto, even in Lowry’s absence, Baynes came off the bench while DeAndre’ Bembry joined the starting lineup.

So, with the Raptors finding their footing and the March 25 trade deadline inching closer, what’s Toronto’s best course of action? That decision revolves around their plan with Lowry.

Lowry, whose $30 million deal is set to expire after the season, is interested in playing at least two more seasons at a similar value, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Are the Raptors willing to meet those demands, paving the way for the franchise icon to spend the remainder of his career with them? Secondly, the Raptors aren’t a title contender right now, which could lead to the two sides working together to send Lowry to a team meeting that criteria by the trade deadline, which also happens to be his 35th birthday.

If it comes to that, Pompey listed the 76ers, Miami HEAT and Los Angeles Clippers as Lowry’s preferred destinations, noting the North Philadelphia native would like to return to his roots. For the Raptors to go through with trading the six-time All-Star, it would likely take multiple first-round picks and promising young players along with any contracts included for salary-matching purposes to be expiring after this season. 

Considering Toronto’s current place in the NBA’s hierarchy, if Lowry intends to leave for a title contender or the Raptors aren’t willing to meet his contractual demands, it’s clear what they should do at the deadline. Trading Lowry isn’t going to net Toronto the return necessary to vault them into the league’s top tier, but it would still figure to serve them better in the long term, even though the Raptors’ resurgence suggests if he’s still on the team after Mar. 25th, they’re once again going to be a difficult out in the playoffs, and they could go as far as the Eastern Conference Finals.

If they want to play the long game, it would also make sense for them to trade Powell, who has an $11.6 million player option he’s likely to decline in the offseason. Granted, he’ll be 28 next season, so it’s not as if re-signing him would be short-sighted.

There’s nothing wrong with preserving the possibility Lowry never dons another team’s jersey — and parting with a franchise icon is never easy. But trading Lowry may be the best bet for the franchise’s future, while it would neither change the fact that the team will someday retire his jersey, nor would it take away from his legacy. In fact, doing right by him and giving Lowry another opportunity to compete for a title may just be the best parting gift the Raptors could give him while also strengthening their own long-term outlook.

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