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NBA AM: Changing The NBA Draft Lottery?

Changes to the NBA Draft Lottery process are expected to be approved today… Did Bosh mislead the Rockets?

Steve Kyler profile picture
Updated 12 months ago on
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Changing The Lottery?:  The NBA’s Board of Governors is expected to vote today to change the percentages and the odds related to the NBA Draft Lottery.

For some time, there has been a very public push to change the lottery system, in part to disincentive losing while also making it more likely that a bad team ends up with a high level pick more random.

Under the current system the 14 teams that do not make the playoffs participate in a random lottery for the top three picks. The team with the worst overall record has the greatest odds of getting the top pick, while also having good odds on the second or third pick if they somehow miss out on the top slot.

The new proposal according to Grantland’s Zach Lowe is that the top six picks will be decided by a more flattened odds system, with the bottom six teams have somewhat equal shots at one of those picks, believed to be an 11 percent chance.

Yahoo!’s Adrian Wojnarowski tweeted last night that the board is expected to vote today. The measure will require 23 of 30 teams to vote in favor and the Philadelphia 76ers and Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to vote “no” on the measure according to Wojnarowski.

It seems at least from the outside that the new measure will pass, so more details on what gets agreed to are expected later today. If passed, the changes are expected to take effect immediately, meaning the new, more balanced odds system would be in place for the 2015 NBA Draft, likely giving the worst six teams a fair shot at the top overall pick.

Here is how the last six seasons have played out standings wise.

2013-2014 2012-2013 2011-2012
Phoenix .585 Utah .524 Houston .515
Minnesota .488 Dallas .500 Phoenix .500
New York .451 Philadelphia .415 Milwaukee .470
Denver .439 Toronto .415 Portland .424
New Orleans .415 Portland .402 Minnesota .394
Cleveland .402 Minnesota .378 Detroit .379
Detroit .354 Detroit .354 Toronto .348
Sacramento .341 Washington .354 Golden State .348
LA Lakers .329 Sacramento .341 New Jersey .333
Boston .305 New Orleans .329 Sacramento .333
Utah .305 Phoenix .305 Cleveland .318
Orlando .280 Cleveland .293 New Orleans .318
Philadelphia .232 Charlotte .256 Washington .303
Milwaukee .183 Orlando .244 Charlotte .106
2010-2011 2009-2010 2008-2009
Houston .524 Houston .512 Phoenix .561
Phoenix .488 Toronto .488 Indiana .439
Utah .476 Memphis .488 Charlotte .427
Golden State .439 New Orleans .451 New Jersey .415
Milwaukee .427 Indiana .390 Milwaukee .415
Charlotte .415 New York .354 Toronto .402
LA Clippers .390 LA Clippers .354 New York .390
Detroit .366 Detroit .329 Golden State .354
New Jersey .293 Philadelphia .329 Minnesota .293
Sacramento .293 Golden State .317 Memphis .293
Washington .280 Washington .317 Oklahoma City .280
Toronto .268 Sacramento .305 LA Clippers .232
Cleveland .232 Minnesota .183 Washington .232
Minnesota .207 New Jersey .146 Sacramento .207
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Not Surprising:  So the story goes that while Cavaliers star LeBron James weighed his free agent options, HEAT star Chris Bosh was doing the same.

Bosh was said to be considering a move to the Houston Rockets on a four-year, $88-million deal that at the time was said to be hinged on whether James stayed in Miami. The belief was if James was leaving Bosh was too. Then the HEAT upped the offer.

“I still had to finish conversations with the Heat,” Bosh said to Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “Everybody was aware, all parties were aware. It was always continuing conversations. I never made any commitments. I never wanted to put anybody in the position to make them feel like I said something and I reneged on the whole thing. So I just kept it open.”

There have been some subtle accusations that maybe Bosh led the Rockets to believe something was further along than it was. Bosh said his talks were always open ended and that Miami was always going to have a role in the conversation.

“They came hard, just like any team would,” Bosh said. “They’re trying to get back to the championship.”

The HEAT, surely sensing that Bosh was teetering went all in with a five-year $118 million deal which kept Bosh in Miami.

“It’s always business,” Bosh said. “Nothing is ever personal. I think 100 percent of those dudes would have taken the deal I took.

“It’s not always about money, but you do want your full market value. If you work your butt off to get to a certain point, you want to be rewarded for that.”

With James now back in Cleveland, the HEAT are expecting Bosh to return to more of the player he was in Toronto and be the anchor for the team. So far in the preseason the HEAT are 2-4, having won their last two games. Bosh has averaged 17.8 points and 7.8 rebounds in the five preseason games he’s logged action, including a dreadful 3-for-13 opener versus the Pelicans. Outside of that game, Bosh’s numbers have been pretty respectable (20 points and 8.2 rebounds). If he can maintain that pace, the HEAT should have their go-to guy.

The HEAT open the regular season on October 29 versus the Washington Wizards.

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Steve Kyler is the Editor and Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA and basketball for the last 17 seasons.

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