On the one hand, the month of May means all of the NBA’s most fun things. It means Conference Finals and NBA Draft Combine and annual awards, but on the other hand it also means that it’s time for me to take my medicine and revisit the 50 NBA predictions I made in the fall.
Every year, I begin this project with extremely high hopes. I tell myself that this year will be different, that this is the time where I finally break through and get the overwhelming majority of my predictions correct. But these predictions are hard. In fact, I purposefully make them that way because if they were too easy, I’d get just as much flak in going 50-for-50 on “no duh” predictions as I do for going 25-for-50 on ones that take a little bit of gumption.
Back in October when I made all of these, I tried to take some risks. This year, more than most, those risks didn’t pay off.
But I really do mean well, and one thing about these 50 predictions articles is that I do hold myself accountable in coming back to them. So here I am, coming back to them, even though I never hate myself more than when I look back on what I thought were reasonable predictions seven or eight months ago. In any event, here’s the first half (and the other half is coming on Friday):
1. Carmelo Anthony will play 70+ games and finish among the top five in the league in points per game.
HALF RIGHT – Anthony only finished 13th in points per game with 21.8 a night, but he did stay healthy enough to play in 72 games.
2. Pau Gasol, who finished fourth in the league last season with 11.4 rebounds per game, will not finish among the top 10 rebounders in the league this season on a per-game basis.
WRONG – He finished sixth in that category this year with 11 rebounds per game.
3. Stephen Curry will see small drops in his field goal and three-point field goal percentages this coming year, seeing two percent decreases in both.
WRONG – Both went up, from 48.7/44.3 to 50.4/45.4. He had a historical year behind the arc. Again.
4. That said, he’ll still make 40 more three-pointers than anybody else in the league.
RIGHT – Make it 126 more than anybody else in the league. His record-setting 402 threes topped teammate Klay Thompson, who finished second with 276.
5. Monta Ellis will be among the top 10 scorers in the NBA as the No. 1 scorer for the Indiana Pacers.
WRONG – He finished 69th in the NBA this year with 13.8 PPG. He didn’t have quite the effect on that offense that I thought he would, apparently.
6. Anthony Davis will finish among the top three in points, rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage.
WRONG – Davis was seventh in scoring, ninth in rebounding, 28th in field goal percentage and fourth in blocks. In other words, he was top three in none of those things.
7. Before his blood clot scare last season, Chris Bosh was averaging 21.1 points and 7.0 rebounds. He will surpass both numbers this season.
HALF RIGHT – He only played in 53 games before the blood clot issue came up again, but in that time he averaged 19.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG.
8. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor will combine for 18+ rebounds per game in Philadelphia this season.
WRONG – They combined for 15.1 RPG, which isn’t bad. It’s just not as outstanding as I thought it would be.
9. Kevin Durant will play 50+ games this season, but not more than 70.
WRONG – Durant played in 72 games, but this is one where I’m glad things turned out better than expected.
10. Kevin Love will see both his rebounding numbers and his three-pointers per game increase this season.
HALF RIGHT – Love’s points per game dropped a bit from 16.4 to 16, but his rebounds increased a touch from 9.7 to 9.9. Either way, he was pretty much exactly the same player he was last year.
11. Ty Lawson will score fewer than 15 PPG for the first time since his sophomore season, but he also will average double-digit assists for the first time in his career.
HALF RIGHT – I really thought I had that one for a second! Lawson was abysmal this year, scoring 5.8 PPG while in Houston and 4.9 in Indiana. His assist numbers were just as bad, averaging 3.4 with the Rockets and 4.4 with the Pacers this year.
12. Damian Lillard is going to average career-highs in points, assists and usage rate.
RIGHT – Lillard’s 25.1 PPG was a 4.1-point boost over last season, while his 6.8 assists also were a career-high. He also finished among the top-eight in usage rate this year with a 31.8 percent – the first time in his career he topped 30 percent.
13. While Andre Drummond may not lead the league in rebounds, the gap between him and league-leader DeAndre Jordan will shrink by half this year.
RIGHT – The gist of this was that Drummond would catch up to Jordan, and he did, by way of finishing atop the league in terms of rebounds per game this season.
14. The Sacramento Kings will be a .500 team this year.
WRONG – And it wasn’t even close. At 33-49, they finished as one of the Western Conference’s worst teams.
15. The Dallas Mavericks will not.
WRONG – The Mavs finished 42-40, two losses away from embarrassing me a whole lot less than I’ve embarrassed myself in these predictions this year.
16. Golden State will take something of a step backward, failing to win 60 regular season games following their championship season a year ago.
WRONG – Oh so very, very wrong.
17. The L.A. Clippers will have the best record in the Western Conference.
WRONG – I hate myself.
18. Atlanta also is due for a drop-off from last season. They’ll not only fail to win 60 games again this year, they’ll finish no higher than third in the Southeast Division.
HALF-RIGHT – Atlanta saw a 12-game dip in the win column this year, placing them in a tie with Charlotte for second place in the Southeast. That technically means they’re both also tied for third in the Southeast, but the Hawks won the tie breaker and finished ahead by the skin of their teeth. At least I was close on this one.
19. The best team in that division this year will be the Washington Wizards, who will finish with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference this year.
WRONG – They didn’t even make the playoffs.
20. The San Antonio Spurs will boast the best home record in the NBA this season.
RIGHT – And they almost went undefeated there in the process.
21. The Charlotte Hornets will see a 10+ game improvement over last season and will make the playoffs.
RIGHT – The Hornets won 15 more games this year than last year (from 33 to 48) and did, in fact, make the postseason this year.
22. Despite some measured improvement and loads of hype, the Milwaukee Bucks will not win 50 games this season.
RIGHT – They fell quite a bit short of that mark, winning only 33 games. Things did not end up quite as rosy as we thought with the young Bucks.
23. With Kobe Bryant healthy, the L.A. Lakers will see a 10-game improvement over last season, but still will fall short of the postseason.
HALF-RIGHT – Well they sure as hell didn’t make the playoffs.
24. The Toronto Raptors will win the Atlantic Division for the third consecutive year.
RIGHT – It was their tidiest and most impressive Atlantic Division title yet, and now they’re in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history.
25. The New York Knicks will finish the year with a better record than the Brooklyn Nets.
RIGHT – Easily, though neither team ended up looking like much when it was all said and done.
And that’s it for now. Check back for Friday, when I revisit my other 25 predictions!
NBA Daily: Tyus Jones Thriving in Bigger Role
Minnesota’s Tyus Jones speaks to David Yapkowitz about his growing role with the Wolves.
It was the last game of the 2016-17 NBA season. The Minnesota Timberwolves had been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time. Their opponent that night, the Houston Rockets, had an impressive year and were on their way to the postseason.
Although the Wolves would go on to lose that game, 123-118, Tyus Jones came off the bench to have to his best game of the year. He would finish with 17 points on 66.7 percent shooting from the field, 75 percent from the three-point line, seven assists, four rebounds, two steals, and a blocked shot.
Jones had just finished up his second year in the NBA, which had gone a little bit just like his first; a few games played here and there followed by some DNP-CD’s. Rookie Kris Dunn was ahead of him on the depth chart at backup point guard for the majority of the year. That stat line he put up on the last night of the season, however, should have been a sign of things to come.
Now in his third year, and second playing under Tom Thibodeau, Jones has firmly seized the backup point guard spot. Thibodeau is notorious for playing short rotations, and along with Jamal Crawford and Gorgui Dieng, Jones has solidified himself as one of Minnesota’s most dependable reserves.
“It’s been good, I’m just trying to contribute to the team as much as possible,” Jones told Basketball Insiders. “I want to do whatever I need to do to help this team win more games.”
The Timberwolves have done just that so far. They won 31 games all of last season. This year, they already have 16 wins. They didn’t break that mark last season until mid-January. Jones’ impact on the Wolves this year has been a big reason for that.
His stats may not jump off the page; he’s averaging 3.9 points per game on 42.5 percent shooting, and 2.8 assists in about 17 minutes of play. But he’s become a reliable floor leader who is able to anchor the Wolves second unit. He’s also one of their best floor spacers at 38.2 percent from the three-point line, and he’s an improved defensive player.
“For me, having a little bit bigger role this year, it’s what I wanted,” Jones told Basketball Insiders. “I’m just trying to make the most of it and take advantage of it.”
Jones has definitely taken advantage of his new role. Starting point guard Jeff Teague missed four games last month due to a sore right Achilles tendon. Aaron Brooks started in place of Teague for the first game he missed, but Jones was the starter for the next three.
In his first ever career start on Nov. 26 in a win over the Phoenix Suns, Jones had nine points on 50 percent shooting, four rebounds, seven assists, seven steals, and two blocks. The following game, albeit in a loss to the Washington Wizards, he finished with 12 points, four rebounds, and seven assists. In his final start before Teague returned, a win over the New Orleans Pelicans, he had his best game of the season with 16 points on 66.7 percent shooting, four rebounds, six assists, and four steals.
“It was a dream, I’m just trying to make the most of it,” Jones told Basketball Insiders about being a starter. “Once again, take advantage of the opportunity and just do my role.”
Although Jones only spent one season playing college basketball before entering the NBA draft, it was the program he attended that’s allowed him to make a seamless transition. He played at Duke under Mike Krzyzewski during the 2014-15 season, winning a national championship alongside fellow NBA players Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, and Quinn Cook.
“It’s the best program in the country. Coach K is the best coach, arguably ever, to coach the game,” Jones told Basketball Insiders. “There’s nothing comparable on the college level, playing at Duke. They’re the brightest lights, so that helps prepare you for the next level.”
The Wolves are a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade. It was the 2003-04 season, to be exact. This year, however, they are hoping to change that. They currently sit in fourth place in the Western Conference, fighting for the right to host a playoff series in the first round.
“We’re trying to make the playoffs, that’s our goal right now,” Jones told Basketball Insiders. “Each year, we’re trying to get better. We’re still trying to take that next step. This organization hasn’t been to the playoffs in a number of years.”
With Jones playing a pivotal role, the Wolves’ playoff drought looks like it will be coming to an end very shortly.
NBA Most Valuable Player Watch — 12/12/17
Dennis Chambers updates the latest MVP watch rankings.
The NBA season is coming in hot on Christmas Day games, and before we know it the new year will arrive as well. As the second half of the season starts to come into sight, more stability among the league’s MVP candidates will prevail.
By now, most of the frontrunners for the award have staked their claim of consistent dominance over the last eight weeks of the NBA season.
For our list here at Basketball Insiders, the same names make up our ladder from the last MVP race installment. A slight juggling of the order is the only new wrinkle. Thus far, these individuals have put themselves ahead of the pack.
A full season in the NBA is a long race, but through the first few laps, these are the MVP leaders.
6. Steph Curry (Last Week: 3)
Coming in at No. 3 on the last list, Steph Curry sees a bit of a tumble in the standings. Unfortunately for Curry, he’s suffering from a sprained ankle that is going to cause him to miss some time. Fortunately for the Golden State Warriors, they’ve won three straight games without their star point guard.
This doesn’t discredit the type of season Curry is having, or his brilliance on the court when he’s healthy, but the fact that the Warriors have enough firepower to sustain his absence damages his claim to the most “valuable” player throne.
Nevertheless, for the Warriors to truly fulfill their championship potential, Curry needs to be healthy and playing. Otherwise, the Warriors aren’t as lethal as they could be.
Barring a complete meltdown from his ball club, Curry’s spot will likely continue to drop slightly as he sits on the bench watching his team win games without him.
Almost the exact opposite of Curry, the Philadelphia 76ers don’t seem to have a prayer at winning basketball games that Joel Embiid sits out of. Luckily for the city of Philadelphia, though, that hasn’t been nearly frequent of an occurrence as past seasons.
The on/off numbers for Embiid are staggering. On both ends of the court, no less. Without their big man, the Sixers’ offensive rating drops off by more than five points and their defensive rating sees a 10-point spike in favor of their opponents.
In short, it’s worse for the Sixers when Embiid is tweeting rather than playing.
After missing back-to-back games over the weekend, Embiid’s value became more apparent to the Sixers. Among a myriad of injuries, Embiid’s was felt the heaviest as his team posted a defensive rating of 111.6 to the Cleveland Cavaliers and then a 130.2 the next night to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Both figures are a far cry from the 102.9 rating the team records with Embiid on the floor.
Much like Curry, the Sixers will need Embiid on the court moving forward to live their best life. So long as he is resting on back-to-backs, or sitting with back soreness, the Sixers won’t be as fortunate as the Warriors to pull out wins.
Masked Kyrie joined Untucked Kyrie this season as another alter ego capable of taking the NBA and Twitter by storm on a nightly basis.
Irving, despite suffering an injury to his face that forced him to wear a protective mask a la Rip Hamilton, still has the Boston Celtics atop the league standings with his MVP campaign so far this season. Over Irving’s last 10 games, he’s averaging 25.8 points on 53 percent shooting from the field and 44 percent from beyond the arc. Over the course of that same span, the Celtics are 7-3.
Just to strengthen his already solid MVP claim, the Celtics went into Chicago Monday night to play the Bulls without Irving, as he sat out of the game with a quad contusion. All the league’s best team preceded to do was lose 108-85 to the league’s worst team.
At this point in the season, MVP candidates have their statistics in place. As viewers and fans, we really get to see the difference they make on their teams during the games that they aren’t playing, and Monday night for the Celtics was a microcosm of Irving’s season-long importance to the success of their team.
The Greek Freak is still putting up absurd numbers, keeping him right in the conversation for Most Valuable Player. On top of his gaudy production, the Milwaukee Bucks are starting to pile up some wins as well.
Winning six of their last seven games — the only loss coming to the Celtics where Antetokounmpo put up 40 points, nine rebounds, and four assists — the Bucks currently hold a 15-10 record and the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference.
It’s been well-documented up to this point how effective Antetokounmpo is for Milwaukee from a numbers standpoint. If he can really start translating those performances into wins over good teams, the narrative of him winning the award may begin to revert back the dominance it held over the first few weeks of the season.
As it currently stands, though, Antetokounmpo is ahead of the rest of the pack before a pretty sizeable gap at the two spots above him.
After having his Cavaliers’ 13-game win streak snapped by an unconscious Victor Oladipo, LeBron James returned to business as usual by defeating the shorthanded Sixers without Kevin Love by his side. He did so in typical Year 15 fashion, posting 30 points, 13 rebounds, 13 assists, and three steals.
No big deal.
That’s the mantra for James’ 15th year in the NBA: Do it all, and do it well. He doesn’t have the supporting cast that many projected coming into this season, and Irving is out doing his thing in Boston. But for the King of the NBA, after a month of rough basketball, he seems to be figuring it all out for his club and putting them in the positions they need to be in to be successful.
Since the start of Cleveland’s winning streak up until the game against Philadelphia, James is averaging 27.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.1 blocks, 55 percent shooting from the field and 44 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
His team is 14-1, Irving is in Boston, and Isaiah Thomas is on the bench.
Year 15 may very well end with James getting MVP number five.
The only man standing between James and his fifth MVP is the man who’s setting the league on fire trying to get his first.
James Harden is recreating his stellar season from a year ag but improving it, somehow. Harden’s averages are incredible: 32 points, 9.5 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 40 percent from downtown, and a 31.6 player efficiency rating.
Not to mention he’s led the Houston Rockets to a 21-4 record, and looks to be a real threat at knocking off the Golden State Warriors.
What Harden is doing on the defensive end is what is brining his game, and his MVP case, to the next level. Harden is posting his lowest defensive rating is four years and coming up big on D in crunch time situations.
On Monday night against the Pelicans, Harden came up with a clutch steal with under a minute to go (his sixth of the night) to extinguish a New Orleans rally and put the icing on his 26-point, 17-assist performance.
LeBron may be having an MVP season, even by his standards, but Harden’s performance this year thus far is keeping the King at arms length of the MVP crown.
NBA DAILY: What Is Really Wrong With The Thunder?
The Thunder continue to struggle to string together wins. What’s the problem in OKC?
At Some Point It Just Doesn’t Work
The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to be middling, despite having the star level talent it takes in the NBA to be exceptional. With the clock ticking in the wrong direction, is it more likely that this combination of players won’t work, or is there something bigger at play worth considering?
Before we dive too far into this, keep in mind the Thunder have played their 26th game, and are just a half a game out of the eighth spot in the West. Equally, they are also three and a half games behind the fourth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, so the sky is far from falling. In fact, they have won four of their last six games, including wins over the Spurs and Timberwolves, which only makes the Jekyll and Hyde of all of this even more frustrating.
All of that said, what’s really wrong with the Thunder? Here are some thoughts:
Not Enough Touches
The Oklahoma City Thunder are dead last in the NBA in touches per game as a team at 384. To contrast that number, the Philadelphia 76ers lead the league in touches at 480.9 touches per game.
Thunder guard Russell Westbrook accounts for 94.4 touches per game, while forward Carmelo Anthony accounts for 61.3 touches with swingman Paul George bringing in 56.0 touched per game. Those three players account for 211.7 of the Thunders 384 touches per game.
That’s not as bad as you would think watching the Thunder play, but what it does illustrate is that neither Anthony or Paul are getting the volume of touches both are used to getting before joining the Thunder. It’s also why neither seems to be able to get into a rhythm on a game to game bases. They have had their moments individually, but it been far from consistent.
It’s more than fair to say that the Thunder offense isn’t generating enough touches to maximize what George and Anthony bring to the table. When the Miami HEAT brought their “Big Three” together, one of the biggest challenges they faced was how to generate the touches to get all their guys in a rhythm and rolling.
That seems to be the biggest part of the problem with the Thunder.
Russ Has To Be Russ
When you look at the Thunder’s “convincing wins” those wins in which they look like an elite team in the NBA, Russell Westbrook plays like last year’s MVP.
The problem for the Thunder is it seems Russell is trying to get other players, specifically Anthony, often to the detriment of his team and his own game. When Westbrook puts his head down and plays his game, the Thunder tend to come out on top.
Westbrook never seemed to have this problem playing with Kevin Durant, and maybe that’s why Durant opted to leave, but Westbrook seems to be trying too hard to get others going.
Where’d Offense Go?
The Thunder continue to talk about how good they are defensively, and that’s a real thing. They are currently the ranked second in the NBA’s defensive rating category. They rank second in point allowed per 100 possessions at 103, just behind league leader Boston at 101.6 points per 100 possessions.
There is no doubt their defense is keeping them in games, but what’s killing them is the long stretches of sub-par offense, many times in the fourth quarter where their offense comes to a grinding halt.
Some have suggested that head coach Billy Donovan simply isn’t creative enough for the construct of this roster. Looking at the stats this far into the season, there may be something to the idea that the Thunder, offensively, just are not creative enough to maximize the potential of their star players.
It’s Not A Selfish Problem
The easy answer on the Thunder is to say they are simply selfish players. There is enough historical evidence on Anthony and Westbrook to support the idea, however, if you really look at the Thunders’ games, it’s actually the opposite. Westbrook likely isn’t selfish enough; it’s likely why he’s struggling from the field on the season.
Part of the offensive problem may be Westbrook’s shooting. His averages this season is markedly down from a year ago—39.6 percent this season from the field versus 42.5 percent last season. Westbrook is also 31.1 percent from three this year versus 34.3 percent from three last season.
But Westbrook is not alone, George is tying his second worst season from the field at 41.8 percent shooting. Anthony is having his worst year as a pro from the field at 40.4 percent.
All three are producing some of their lowest efficiency ratings of their careers, so it’s not just one guy doing so much more than the other. None of them are playing particularly well together.
It’s easy to look at the Thunder and label them one thing or the other; there are enough polarizing personalities on the roster to draw the labels. The truth of the matter is the Thunder just are not very good or efficient offensively, and until they find a way to make that part work, they will likely continue to be middling.
That’s going to make things fairly tough on the Thunder front office, because come the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline, the Thunder may have to cut bait on some players before they potentially lose them in free agency for nothing. The trade deadline is only about 60 days away, believe it or not.
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