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NBA AM: Executives On The Hot Seat

As the 2016-17 NBA season begins, these executives need this campaign to pan out or they could be out of a job.

Steve Kyler

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Executives To Watch

No one in the NBA revels in watching their peers getting fired. However, in an industry where results and progress matter, the clock is always ticking for decision-makers. There are a few NBA executives who need their respective teams to do well this season or they could find themselves on the outside looking in. Here are a few of the notables that will enter the season on the proverbial “hot seat.”

Ryan McDonough, Phoenix Suns

At the end of last season, it was said in NBA circles that ownership in Phoenix was going to do a top down review of the team and make decisions on the path forward. At that point, McDonough was considered pretty safe – and after a solid draft and decent offseason, he looks to be in a fairly good situation going forward. However, if the floor falls out from under the Suns again or the coaching staff cannot figure out how to effectively manage the roster duplication, there could be doubts about the direction of the team (especially if things gets ugly).

McDonough does not look like a candidate to be fired mid-season, simply because the expectations for the Suns are not astronomically high. What becomes real is if this is another throwaway season with little to no progress. Assuming the team moves forward and the young guys continue to tap into their potential, McDonough could survive a non-playoff season. But he is certainly on the proverbial clock and improvement across the board is expected.

Rob Hennigan, Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic enter the 2016-17 season facing their longest playoff drought in franchise history. Under Hennigan’s watch, the Magic have had four different head coaches in five seasons and the path forward is anything but clear.

Hennigan seems to have ditched the build-around-the-young-guys model as he traded away many of his young prospects and went after veteran players this summer in trades and free agency moves. The team is clearly in win-now mode.

The Magic have never been a “reactive” organization, but their patience as a franchise is not unlimited and there is a growing sense that if Orlando is not firmly in the hunt for .500 basketball and a playoff berth this year, Hennigan could be out next.

There may not be a more likeable NBA executive in basketball than Hennigan, which makes talking about his potential exit a little tough. But the truth of the matter is, the Magic face a lot of pressure to get back to winning and there isn’t anyone else to put the blame on if that does not happen, especially with a projected payroll of $110 million this season and a roster without a single All-Star.

John Hammond, Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks added another year on Hammond’s deal this summer, putting him under contract through the 2017-18 season. That does not mean he’ll be there if this season shapes up like last year’s campaign.

The Bucks underwhelmed last year and the bar might be a touch lower this year, especially considering how much time head coach Jason Kidd missed to his hip surgery.

With all of that behind them, the Bucks are hopeful to get back in the mix and while Hammond is not the key decision maker, if things go sideways there is a sense that Hammond could get pushed to the side in favor of a more assertive leader.

Like McDonough, it would take an amazing collapse by the team to see a change mid-season. But if the Bucks are again outside looking in and Hammond can’t help right the ship, he could get replaced in the offseason despite his new extended deal.

Ernie Grunfeld, Washington Wizards

Grunfeld always seems to make this list and always seems to come out of the other side smelling like roses. The expectations for the upcoming season are not as great as, say, last year, especially with the Wizards missing out on a major free agent. However, the desire to get back into the playoff hunt is real, mainly because there is a growing sense that John Wall may not continue to be on board with the plan if the Wizards are not in the postseason. That increases the pressure on new head coach Scott Brooks succeeding and Grunfeld being aggressive on the trade front.

It’s easy to buy time in the NBA when your star players are on board, but if Wall loses faith in his team, that could be a big problem for Grunfeld.

Like others on this list, it would take a catastrophic collapse for Grunfeld to be replaced mid-season; but if the outcome of this season is like last year, Grunfeld could be a name to watch.

Gar Forman, Chicago Bulls

The Bulls as an organization have a single goal every year: make the playoffs. While winning a seventh championship is always a goal too, not being in the postseason is a problem for Bulls ownership on many levels. So when you look at some of the decisions the Bulls make on a year-to-year basis, there is a reason they never opt for a true blow-up rebuild. Instead, they always seem to be open to moves like they made this offseason – signing guys like Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade.

For the Bulls’ front office, this season has to yield playoff results. If this year is a repeat of last season, there could be big changes for the Bulls, especially after outing Tom Thibodeau in favor of a more front-office friendly Fred Hoiberg.

Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf is incredibly loyal to his front office guys – both in basketball and in baseball – so it’s very unlikely that Forman or John Paxson get ousted mid-season unless things just implode. Given what’s there on the roster now and how things went last year, that does not seem likely.

However, if this season does not yield a playoff appearance, all bets are off on how long Reinsdorf stays the course with his current front office duo.

Of all the names here, Forman and Paxson seem the least likely to be ousted, but they make the list simply because of how much the Bulls expect to be in the playoffs.

Dell Demps, New Orleans Pelicans

The thing about Pelicans general manager Dell Demps is that people have been writing his basketball obituary for years and he’s still there. However, this season may be his biggest challenge yet, with both of his starting-caliber guards questionable to say the least and superstar Anthony Davis fresh off an injury. With all of that in mind, who know what the Pelicans will really be as a team this year? And given the legal situation involving ownership of the team, who knows much more runway Demps gets?

There has been a long running rumor that former Detroit Pistons executive Joe Dumars could eventually be brought in to oversee basketball operations for the Pelicans, but team sources continue to say there is an unwavering commitment to Demps internally. However, it was a really odd summer for Demps, and his status was considered up in the air for most of the offseason.

If the Pelicans post another disappointing season, it’s hard to imagine Demps not getting the blame. But given how odd things have gone since the Benson family has owned the team, it’s far from a given that he’d be replaced.

There is no question Demps is on the proverbial hot seat. The question is can year two under head coach Alvin Gentry yield enough results to remove that heat and the doubts surrounding the roster?

There is a saying in coaching circles that coaches are hired to ultimately be fired. While that’s sad, it is unfortunately true. NBA executives usually get a longer runway than coaches, but as we’ve seen over the last decade, a GM usually gets about five seasons to turn things in the right direction. Most of the guys on this list are well past the five-year mark, so time will tell if their teams turn the corner enough for them to get off this list next year.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @AlexKennedyNBA, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @SusanBible @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @OMaroneyNBA, @Ben_Dowsett, @ JabariDavisNBA and @CodyTaylorNBA .

Steve Kyler is the Editor and Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA and basketball for the last 17 seasons.

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NBA Daily: The Young, Western Conference Bubble

The race for the West’s final playoff spot may seem crowded, but the last two months make it clear that two teams are already ahead of the pack.

Douglas Farmer

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We all jump to conclusions too quickly, this space and this scribe most certainly included. Three months ago, five weeks into the NBA season, the Western Conference playoff bubble looked like it would be a race between the Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves. That has assuredly not become the reality.

While the Kings and Suns can claim to still be in the playoff race, they would have to not only make up five-game deficits, but they would also each have to jump over four other teams to reach the postseason. The Timberwolves would delight at such challenges as they initiate a not-so-subtle tank with franchise cornerstone Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined for at least a few weeks with a fractured wrist.

Instead, the race to be swept by the Los Angeles Lakers has come down to a pair of up-and-comers, a perpetual deep threat and the NBA’s most consistent organization. Of all of them, it is the youngsters who are both currently playing the best and have the most control of their playoff hopes relative to their competition.

Between the current No. 8-seeded Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trail Blazers (3 games back), New Orleans Pelicans (3.5) and San Antonio Spurs (4), the next six weeks will feature eight key games. Five of those will include either the Grizzlies or the Pelicans or, in two instances, both.

That pair of matchups is still a month out, but they warrant circling already, nonetheless. Memphis and New Orleans have been playing at a high level for two-plus months now, and by the time they play two games within four nights in late March — when the basketball world is largely distracted by the NCAA Tournament — the two inexperienced teams may have completely separated from Portland and San Antonio.

After starting 1-5, 5-13 and then 10-19, the Grizzlies have gone 18-9 since Dec. 21. The Pelicans have matched that record exactly, down to the date, since starting even worse than Memphis did, bottoming out at 7-23 before finding an uptick long before Zion Williamson found the court. Winning two-thirds of your games for two months is a stretch with a sample size large enough to make it clear: Neither Memphis nor New Orleans should be dismissed in this playoff chase.

Their early-season profiles were examples of young teams sliding right back into the lottery — and there was absolutely no indication a surge was coming.

Grizzlies Pelicans
Offensive Rating 106.4 – No. 23 106.8 – No. 21
Defensive Rating 111.7 – No. 23 113.5 – No. 27

Through Dec. 20; via nba.com.

Then, for whatever reason, things changed. They changed in every way and in ways so drastically that one cannot help but wonder what could come next for the teams led by the top-two picks from last summer’s draft.

Grizzlies Pelicans
Offensive Rating 111.9 – No. 15 115.1 – No. 4
Defensive Rating 109.3 – No. 11 110.3 – No. 13

Since Dec. 21, through Feb. 23; via nba.com.

In a further coincidence of records and timing, the Blazers and Spurs have both gone 13-16 since Dec. 21.

If all four teams in the thick of things out west continue at these two-month winning rates for another month, then Portland and San Antonio will have drifted out of the playoff conversation before Williamson and Ja Morant meet for a second time. Of course, those rates would keep New Orleans a few games back of Memphis; the latter has 14 games, compared to 12, before March 21, so the gap in the standings would actually expand to an even four games.

If the Pelicans can just pick up a game or two before then, though, they have already beaten the Grizzlies twice this season. Doing so twice more that week would just about send New Orleans into the playoffs – at which point, perhaps Williamson could steal a game from LeBron James to put a finishing coda on his rookie season.

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NBA Daily: The Stretch Run — Southwest Division

David Yapkowitz finishes Basketball Insiders’ Stretch Run series with an overview of the Southwest Division.

David Yapkowitz

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We’ve hit that point in the NBA season approaching the final stretch of games before the playoffs roll around in April. The trade deadline has come and gone, the buyout market is wearing thin and most teams have loaded up and made their final roster moves in anticipation of the postseason.

Here at Basketball Insiders, we’re taking a look at each team — division by division– at what they need to do to get ready for the playoffs, or lack thereof. Looking at the Southwest Division, this was a division that used to be one of the toughest in the league.

It still is for the most part. The Texas triangle of the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs was no joke and hell for opposing teams on a road trip. Those are still a couple of formidable teams, but with the exception of the Rockets, it’s not quite near the level of yesteryear.

The Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans are a pair of young, up-and-coming teams that will give you 100 percent every night. While Memphis sits firmly in the eighth spot in the Western Conference, the Pelicans are on the outside looking in. Here’s a look at how each team might fare in the stretch run.

The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the Southwest all season long, and all that remains for them is playoff positioning. They currently sit in fourth place in the West, giving them home-court advantage in the first round, but they could just as easily slip a bit with the Utah Jazz essentially tied with them record-wise in the standings and the Oklahoma City Thunder a mere two games back.

The Dallas Mavericks have taken a huge leap this season behind Luka Doncic, who is rapidly becoming one of the best players in the league. They currently sit in seventh place in the West and a return to the postseason is in the cards for the Mavericks.

The rest of the teams in the Southwest is where things get a little interesting. The Grizzlies have been one of the surprises of the season, as they’ve defied expectations and are firmly entrenched in the playoff race out West. They have a three-game lead on the Portland Trail Blazers and a four-game lead on the San Antonio Spurs.

Out of the Grizzlies’ final 26 games, 15 of them come against teams over .500, more than either the Blazers or the Spurs. 14 of those final 26 are also on the road, again, more than the Blazers or the Spurs. They also play both the Spurs and Blazers one more time this season. If the Grizzlies end up making the playoffs, it will be very well earned.

The Spurs are knocking on the door, and they have one more game against the Grizzlies which could prove to be very meaningful. This is a team that has been one of the standard-bearers in the league for success over the past decade. Their streak of playoff appearances is in serious jeopardy.

They’ve won two of their last three games, however, and out of their final 26 games, 15 of those are at home, where they are 14-12. Based on how the Grizzlies are playing though, a close to .500 record at home probably isn’t going to cut it. They’re going to need to pick it up a bit over the next month if they want to keep their playoff streak intact. A lot can happen between now and then, and the Grizzlies do have a tough remaining schedule, but it looks as if San Antonio will miss the playoffs for the first time in 22 years.

The final team in the Southwest is the Pelicans, boosted by the return of prized rookie and No.1 draft pick Zion Williamson. Prior to the start of the season, the Pelicans were looked at as a team that could possibly contend for the eighth seed in the West. Then Williamson got hurt and things changed.

But the team managed to stay afloat in his absence, and as it stands, they’re only three-and-a-half games back of the Grizzlies with 26 games left to play. Out of the bottom three teams in the division, it’s the Pelicans who have the easiest schedule.

Out of those 25 games, only seven of them come against teams over .500. They are, however, just about split with home and away games. New Orleans is 8-2 over their past 10 games, better than the Grizzlies and Spurs. If Memphis falters down the stretch due to its tough schedule, and the Pelicans start gaining a little bit of steam, things could get interesting in the final few weeks.

In all likelihood, the Pelicans probably won’t make the playoffs as not only do they have to catch up to the Grizzlies, but the Spurs and Blazers as well. But it certainly will be fun to watch them try.

There are some big storylines in the Southwest Division worth following as we begin the final run to the postseason. Can the young Grizzlies defy expectations and make a surprise return to the playoffs? Will the Spurs get their playoff streak snapped and finally look to hit the reset button after nearly two decades of excellence? Can the Pelicans, buoyed by Williamson’s return, make a strong final push?

Tune in to what should be fun final stretch in the Southwest.

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NBA

NBA Daily: The Stretch Run — Southeast Division

With the All-Star Break behind us, the final stretch of NBA games has commenced. Quinn Davis takes a look at a few teams in the Southeast Division that have a chance at making the dance.

Quinn Davis

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Well, that was fast.

With the NBA All-Star break in the rearview, there are now fewer than 30 games to play for all 30 NBA teams. In other words, time is running out for certain teams to improve their seeding in the conference.

Here at Basketball Insiders, we will be looking at a certain subset of teams that are right on the border of making or missing the playoffs. In this edition, the focus will be on the Southeast Division.

The Southeast features three teams — the Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards — operating in the lower-middle-class of the NBA. These three will be slugging it out over the next month-and-a-half for the right to meet the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs.

The two remaining teams are the Miami HEAT and Atlanta Hawks. As this is being written, the former is comfortably in the playoffs at 35-20, while the latter is comfortably gathering more ping pong balls at 16-41.

In this space, the focus will be on the three bubble teams. The Magic are currently frontrunners for the eighth seed, but the Wizards and Hornets are within striking distance if things were to go awry.

Led by head coach Steve Clifford, the Magic have ground their way to the eighth seed behind an eighth-ranked defense. Lanky wing Aaron Gordon is the standout, helping the Magic execute their scheme of walling off the paint. The Magic only allow 31.3 percent of opponent shots to come at the rim, putting them in 89th percentile in the league, per Cleaning The Glass.

Following a post-break loss to Dallas Mavericks, the Magic sit at 24-32 and three games up on the ninth-seeded Wizards. While a three-game margin doesn’t sound like much, that is a sizable cushion with only 26 games to play. Basketball-Reference gives the Magic a 97.4 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The Magic have the third-easiest remaining schedule out of Eastern Conference teams. They have very winnable games coming against the Bulls, Hornets, Cavaliers, Knicks and Pistons. They also have multiple games coming against the Brooklyn Nets, the team they trail by only 1.5 games for the seventh seed.

The Magic are prone, however, to dropping games against the league’s bottom-feeders. It can be difficult to string together wins with an offense this sluggish. The Markelle Fultz experiment has added some spark in that department, but his lack of an outside shot still leaves the floor cramped.

After a quick analysis of the schedule, the most likely scenario appears to be a 12-14 record over the last 26 games, putting the Magic at 36-46 come season’s end. A record like that should not be allowed anywhere near playoff basketball, but it would probably be enough to meet the Bucks in round one.

If the Magic go 12-14, that would leave the Wizards, fresh off a loss to J.B. Bickerstaff and the Cleveland Cavaliers, needing to go 17-11 over their last 28 games. They will need to finish one game ahead as the Magic hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Wizards finishing that strong becomes even more farfetched when you consider their remaining schedule. They have the second-toughest slate from here on out, per Basketball-Reference.

The Wizards do have a trump card in Bradley Beal, who is the best player among the bubble teams in the East. He has now scored 25 points or more in 13 straight games and has been the driving force behind the Wizards staying in the race.

He has also picked up his defense a bit following his All-Star snub in an effort to silence his critics. The increased focus on that end is nice, but it would’ve been a little nicer if it had been a part of his game earlier in this season when the Wizards were by far the worst defense in the league.

Even if Beal goes bonkers, it is hard to see a path for this Wizards team to sneak in outside of a monumental collapse in Orlando. Looking at their schedule, it would take some big upsets to even get to 10 wins over their last 28. Their most likely record to finish the season is 8-20 if all games go to the likely favorites.

The Wizards’ offense has been impressive all season, but injuries and a porous defense have been too much to overcome.

The Hornets, meanwhile, trail the Wizards by 1.5 games and the Magic by 4.5 games. They have won their last three in a row to put themselves back in this race, but they still have an uphill climb.

The Hornets also may have raised the proverbial white flag by waiving two veterans in Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The goal coming into this season was never to make the playoffs, so they are likely more interested in developing young talent over these last 27 games.

If the Magic do play up to their usual levels and go 12-14, it would require the Hornets to go 18-9 to finish the season against the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the East.

Devonte’ Graham and his three-point shooting have been a bright spot for the Hornets, but it would take some otherworldly performances from him and Terry Rozier down the stretch to put together a record like that. Basketball-Reference gives this a 0.02 percent chance of happening (cue the Jim Carrey GIF).

Barring a miracle, the eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference are locked in place. The only questions remaining are how seeds 2-6 will play out, and whether the Magic can catch the Nets for the seventh spot.

The Wizards will fight to the end, but it is unlikely they make up any ground given the level of opponents they will see over the next six weeks. The Hornets, meanwhile, are more likely to fight for lottery odds.

At least the playoffs should be exciting.

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