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NBA AM: The NBA Draft Is Complicated

With the 2017 NBA Draft Combine getting underway, consider these things when you think about the draft process.

Steve Kyler

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The Draft Is Complicated

With the 2017 NBA Draft Combine getting underway in Chicago today, NBA teams will get their first real chance to get to know the field of players likely to get drafted.

How important is the Combine you ask? In 2016, 70 players participated in the Combine; 42 of them were drafted. Six pulled out of the draft entirely. When you consider that the top overall prospects typically skip the process, the Combine usually sets the realistic field on draft day, especially the field for the second round.

With the Draft moving to center stage for many teams, here are some things to know about the process:

Talent Wins Out

As much as people tend to fixate on what’s already on a team’s roster, especially when it comes to draft picks, the truth of the matter is almost no player drafted is ready to truly compete as a rookie. If you look at the 2016 NBA draft top level picks like Laker forward Brandon Ingram or Wolves guard Kris Dunn, neither initially started; each were brought along slowly.

It’s fairly rare that a rookie is ready to play full-time minutes at the NBA level, meaning teams tend to focus on the best long-term talent more so than an immediate roster need. The ideal pick is a player that solves a roster need, with the best upside talent.

However, if it comes down to it, most teams are going to select talent first and sort out the roster later, especially after they get a sense of what the new player really is in their system.

The lone exception to this concept is when a team has a proven All-Star on the roster. Take Cleveland for example. Spending a high-level draft picks on a Small Forward would be foolish because that player would never play.

Teams do consider their roster when making a pick, but it’s always far easier to trade away talent down the road, especially when you consider anyone drafted is going to need time to develop.

The Eye Test Lies To You

It’s fairly common to fixate on what can be seen. That game film and how a player has played should trump everything, but it rarely does. That’s not to say that teams don’t value a fully fleshed out body of work, especially a lot of game film, but there is more to it than that.

Teams tend to over evaluate that draft and that’s led to some historically bad draft decisions, but the reason teams dig into everything they can know is because being a successful professional isn’t just about ability on the court.

For the most part, drafted players are not going to be the focal point of their team. Equally many are going to lose more games in their first professional year than they have lost in their entire life. How will a player handle that? Is a player wired to handle disappointment? How will that player handle pro-level coaching?

There is pressure in the NBA. Does the player have the mental make up to persevere? Or will that player get lost in the distractions that come with life as a pro athlete?

What you see on the court or in game film is only part of the equation.

Teams have to evaluate the whole picture, and while some pictures are easier to see than others, look back at any draft in the last 10 years. The process is littered with hyped players coming into the draft that simply never became what they looked to be on game film.

Equally, there have been dozens lesser thought of players that went on to become All-Stars or franchise cornerstones. That’s where the work in all of this comes into play.

Draft Picks Are Investments

As much as fans like to talk about who a team should draft, keep in mind a draft pick is an investment and as any broker will tell you, betting on a known stock does not often return the same a betting on a high upside, higher risk stock.

Teams in the lottery tend to look for highest possible upside. This makes the draft risky, but the idea is to bet on the future, not the present. When you consider that 14 teams passed on Giannis Antetokounmpo, it was a risky pick at the time—more risk than many teams were willing to make. The Bucks took the chance and got maybe the gem of that draft class.

Like venture capitalists, teams in the lottery are often looking for the “dare to be great pick,” not the safe pick.

Equally, teams that are further along and maybe already have their core players are looking at the draft differently, usually looking for the safe bet, rather than risk they do not need.

In all situations, keep in mind, teams look at draft picks not in what they are today, rather what they’ll be when it’s time to pay out real money in four years.

The Draft Is Brutally Inaccurate

While situation matters most to a player’s overall development, the draft process itself has proven to be brutally inaccurate.

Again, look at the last decade of draft picks and the history of the draft is littered with players like Jimmy Butler (30th pick), Draymond Green (35th pick), Malcolm Brogdon (36th pick) and of course Isaiah Thomas (60th pick) – all picked later in the draft, all turned out to be stars or future stars in the NBA.

Compare that with the number of busts in the top three selections and it becomes clear the draft is a crap shoot at best.

In the same vein, NBA pundits that cover the draft have been as wrong as the team themselves in predicting NBA success. Some of that has to do with players landing in tough situations like Darko Milicic in 2003.

Darko was raved about by pundits only to flame out, mainly because of the situation in which he landed—in Detroit, with a veteran championship team that never had a role for him, and a coach that wouldn’t play him. Ultimately, Darko quit caring about basketball and fell into a downward spiral, becoming the joke of a elite Hall-of-Fame draft class.

By every measure, Darko was a world class draft prospect. He simply never became the player many thought he’d be.

Missing On The Draft Can Cripple A Franchise

Missing on the draft can destroy a franchise, especially franchises drafting in the lottery. The Sacramento Kings have become the poster child for botched draft picks and their inability to get back into the playoffs is a result of years of missing on picks, especially picks the franchise often traded up to obtain.

Orlando is another example of a team that was supposed to rebuild through the draft but was never able to land the difference maker a team needs to jump start a rebuild, and it ultimately cost Rob Hennigan his job.

Equally, teams that continually trade away picks lose out on low cost players, often finding themselves with limited depth or trade assets.

Sometimes, teams need the player a draft pick can produce, not just for the talent, but for a potential future trade asset. So, when you wonder why a veteran team doesn’t trade away their pick, it’s often about preserving a future asset.

No Team Hits On Everything

As much as some executives in the NBA are lauded for their draft acumen, no franchise has hit on every pick, mainly because the circumstances for success vary so wildly. If you look at the history of each franchisefor every hit, there is an equal and embarrassing miss. That’s the nature of the process and one of the reasons teams spend so much time evaluating options—the margins between prospects is usually very small.

While it’s easy to say a player is a can’t miss prospect, the history of the draft has proven that to not only be untrue, but usually way off, especially as the draft gets into the teens and twenties.

While some teams tend to miss on the draft a bit more frequently than others, the hit/miss ration is better equal, especially over the longer term.

The NBA Draft Combine medical testing and personal interviews gets underway tonight, while the actual court work begins tomorrow. Underclassmen that have declared for the draft early have until May 24 to pull out and return to college without penalty . That is not an NBA rule, it’s a NCAA rule. The NBA’s deadline to withdraw is June 12.

There are some players in the 2017 NBA Draft class that are not likely to return to school, but may pull out of the draft, opting to use the Combine and workout to get themselves on some team’s radars for next year and explore playing professionally in either the Gatorade Development League or internationally.

Basketball Insiders will be on the ground in Chicago and pushing out video interviews with all of the notable players, so stay tuned throughout the week.

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @SusanBible@TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton@jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @CodyTaylorNBA, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau.

Steve Kyler is the Editor and Publisher of Basketball Insiders and has covered the NBA and basketball for the last 17 seasons.

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2018 NBA Draft Diary

NBA Daily: The Losers of the NBA Draft

Shane Rhodes breaks down the losers of the 2018 NBA Draft.

Shane Rhodes

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The 2018 NBA Draft season has come to a close. And, while the actual draft wasn’t the fireworks show that it could have been, there was still plenty of surprises, both good and bad.

While Basketball Insiders’ Simon Hannig discussed the winners of the draft, not everyone was so fortunate. And, while the draft can come down to chance, some teams were worse off than others.

Let’s take a look at some of the bigger losers from draft night

Mikal Bridges

Talk about heartbreak.

Mikal Bridges was going home. The Philadelphia 76ers selected the Villanova standout with the No. 10 pick. Bridges did an entire press conference, talking about what it was like to be staying in Philadelphia. His mother, Tyneeha Rivers, is even the Global VP of Human Resources for Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment, the company that owns the team. It was perfect.

And then it wasn’t.

It’s hard to not feel bad for Bridges, who was dropped into a dream scenario and then had it all ripped away. Going to the Phoenix Suns, an organization heading in a new direction, to play alongside plenty of young, high upside talent, including No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton as well as former lottery picks Josh Jackson and Devin Booker, isn’t the worst thing in the world for the rookie forward. Bridges could even flourish in Phoenix.

But it certainly won’t compare to playing under the bright lights in Philadelphia alongside Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid come next April and for years to come.

Michael Porter Jr.

One year ago, Michael Porter Jr. was a top three draft prospect projected to go as high as No. 1 overall. However, with rumors of questionable medicals swirling throughout the draft process, he dropped all the way to the Denver Nuggets at No. 14 overall.

While Porter will certainly welcome the chip on his shoulder, the lost earnings will definitely hurt him and his pocket. Porter is missing out on millions on his first NBA contract. Plus, the sheer amount of teams that balked at his medicals doesn’t bode well for his long-term future in the NBA.

It isn’t all bad for Porter; Denver has a young, talented roster and was one win away from a postseason birth last year. They can afford to be patient with Porter’s back, should he need to miss some time, as well. Standing 6-foot-11, 211 pounds and with a smooth jumper, Porter still has a great chance to be a star in this league.

Still, it was an inauspicious beginning to what, hopefully, is a long NBA career.

Sacramento Kings

This could apply to the Sacramento Kings roster as well as their fanbase.

The Kings got “their guy” in No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley III. And, while Bagley is still an amazing talent, the pick just seems like more of the same for the Kings, who have a glut of bigs — Willie-Cauley Stein, Harry Giles III, Skal Labissiere, Kostas Koufos — on the roster and a distinct lack of high-quality guard or wing depth.

In steps Luka Dončić, the 19-year-old Slovenian phenom. With the Suns taking Ayton with the top pick, the Kings had their chance to shore up their backcourt for the foreseeable future alongside De’Aaron Fox and move another step closer to relevancy.

And they whiffed.

Dončić could very well end up as the best player in the class. While he isn’t the most athletic, Dončić is exactly where the NBA is going; he is a multipositional defender and playmaker that can shoot the three. Meanwhile, Bagley, who is a questionable fit in the modern game, will be hardpressed to find playing time early on in his Kings tenure. Even worse, with their hearts set on Bagley, the Kings likely could have traded down a la the Atlanta Hawks and picked up another asset for their troubles.

While it’s much too early to call it either way, this is a pick that could come back to haunt Sacramento down the line.

Cleveland Cavaliers

It was not a great night for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Cavaliers missed out on one point-guard prospect, Trae Young, and another, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, flat out said he didn’t want to play for the franchise. And, even though they got a guard they liked in Alabama’s Collin Sexton, the Cavaliers are still in the unenviable position of dealing with LeBron James’ third iteration of The Decision.

Sexton’s selection doesn’t exactly help them retain James’ services either.

Since acquiring the pick from the Boston Celtics in the Kyrie Irving trade last summer, it had been speculated as to whether Cleveland would use the pick or trade it to get James help. With the team opting for the former, it’s difficult to imagine the Cavaliers getting any significant help for James, in free agency or otherwise, which could push him closer to leaving than he already may be. Meanwhile, Sexton, who dominated the ball during his time at Alabama, isn’t exactly the best fit alongside James in the event that he stays.

Either way, there appears to be a bumpy road ahead for the Cavaliers.

Washington Wizards

Troy Brown Jr. is a great pickup for the Washington Wizards. That still doesn’t mean he wasn’t a reach.

Brown is a twitchy wing that can defend multiple positions. But there were multiple wings that Washington could have taken ahead of Brown (e.g., Lonnie Walker II) that would have made this a better pick. Brown struggled as a shooter during his lone season at Oregon — he shot just 29.1 percent from three and has some iffy mechanics — and is a strange fit on the Wizards roster that already has a surplus of wing depth in John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Kelly Oubre.

With the team looking to move Marcin Gortat, a big would have been a better fit for Washington at 15. Or, if management was deadset on Brown, dropping back a few spots would have made more sense.

Brown certainly has the talent to make an impact, but it’s hard to like a pick that may not crack the rotation in year one, according to the Wizards own General Manager.

Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors took a big step earlier this offseason, moving on from Dwane Casey and placing Nick Nurse at the helm in early June.

But, with zero picks in a loaded draft, the Raptors have to be considered losers.

There were plenty of difference makers available up-and-down the draft board, but the Raptors didn’t end up with any of them. While management could improve the team via trade or free agency come July, they still feature the same roster that got manhandled in the Eastern Conference Semifinals by James and the Cavaliers and that isn’t good.

Not everyone can come out a winner in a crapshoot like the NBA Draft. Still, some teams found themselves worse off than others when all was said and done. Luckily, those teams still have a chance to improve themselves with free agency right around the corner.

 

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2018 NBA Draft Diary

NBA Daily: The Winners Of The NBA Draft

Simon Hannig breaks down the winners from Thursday’s 2018 NBA Draft.

Simon Hannig

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The 2018 NBA Draft has come and gone, and although many teams have improved coming out of this loaded draft, five teams seemed to have walked away as the biggest winners.

The Phoenix Suns Got Their Guy

The Suns made a couple of splashes in the draft, selecting DeAndre Ayton with the first overall pick.

The Suns then drafted Zhaire Smith, but later traded his rights to the Philadelphia 76ers for Mikal Bridges.

In the second round of the draft, Phoenix selected Frenchman Elie Okobo and George King from Colorado, each of whom should be able to contribute right away. Ayton should be the starting center come opening night and Bridges could also start for the team immediately. If not, Bridges will be a valuable weapon coming off the bench for a team who is trying to win games and get back into the playoffs.

Does Mo Bamba Have The (Orlando) Magic?

The Orlando Magic got a stud in Mo Bamba, whom they surprisingly selected with the sixth overall pick in the draft. They later drafted Melvin Frazier in the second round. It was a bit surprising that the Tulane product lasted that long, but the Magic benefitted.

Orlando got a player who can contribute right away and could compete for a starting job. Frazier is a great rebounder and defender and could change the team’s defense all by himself. The club now has two young core pieces they can build around in Jonathan Isaac and Bamba and a young contributor in Frazier.

Although the team’s offense will likely be work in progress, they can be very scary on the defensive end.

Now, we’ll all wait to see if Bamba, the New York product, can carry the Magic back to respectability.

Atlanta Hawks Will Let It Fly

After drafting Luka Doncic with the third overall pick, the Hawks ended up sending him to Dallas in exchange for Trae Young and a future protected first round pick. The pick is top-five protected the next two years, top-three protected in 2021 and 2022 and unprotected in 2023, according to Mavs president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson.

With their second first round pick, the Hawks took sharpshooter Kevin Huerter from Maryland and, with the 30th overall pick, selected Omari Spellman from Villanova.

Atlanta appears to building themselves in the way of the Warriors, getting sharpshooters in Young and Huerter. It is no surprise they are doing this as their current general manager, Travis Schlenk, worked with Golden State before taking the job with the Hawks.

The Rich Got Richer In Boston

The Celtics once again got a steal in the draft, as they were the beneficiaries as it relates to Robert Williams from Texas A&M. He is an athletic big man who plays great defense and rebounds the ball very well. Williams has lottery talent but ended up falling to the Celtics, who selected him with the 27th pick of the draft.

Williams averaged 2.5 blocks per game at Texas and should also be able to provide second chance opportunities for the team. Williams, as he averaged three offensive rebounds per game in college.

Luka Doncic Found A Good Home

The Dallas Mavericks walked away from the 2018 NBA Draft with two foundational pieces in tow, Dennis Smith Jr. and Luka Doncic. Their other moves were also tremendous, as they drafted Jalen Brunson from Villanova, acquired Ray Spalding from Louisville in a trade with the Sixers and drafted Kostas Antetokounmpo (Giannis’ younger brother) with the last piece in the draft.

For Mark Cuban, it may take time to develop the pieces, but if things could go well, the Mavs might have some productive years ahead.

Doncic was thought to be one of, if not the best player available in the draft, so getting him at the expense of a protected future first round pick seems like a fair trade. Depending on how ready he is to contribute at the NBA level, the sky could be the limit.

Of course, every year, there are surprises. Some good, and some bad. However, walking away from the 2018 NBA Draft, these five teams all appear to have improved themselves immensely.

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2018 NBA Draft Diary

NBA Draft Night Trades

David Yapkowitz breaks down the trades that took place during the 2018 NBA Draft.

David Yapkowitz

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Another NBA Draft has come and gone. With rumors swirling all week about possible pick/player movement, the night remained relatively uneventful. There were a few trades that occurred, however. Here’s a quick breakdown of the movement that happened on draft night.

1. Atlanta Hawks/Dallas Mavericks

The Hawks and Mavericks completed the first trade of the night early on in the draft. Leading up to the draft, there were questions about how high Luka Doncic was going to be drafted. It was widely assumed that he wouldn’t slip past Dallas at No. 5. The Mavericks weren’t going to take that chance as the Hawks drafted Doncic with the intention of trading him to Dallas for Trae Young.

Both teams ultimately get what they need. It’s been reported that the Hawks might move on from Dennis Schroder this summer and they’ll need a point guard to replace him. Young is an explosive scorer who will fit in nicely with Atlanta’s rebuild. He can score from anywhere on the court and he’s a great playmaker as well.

For the Mavericks, they get a guy to add to their own young core with Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes. Doncic has the size to play next to Smith in the backcourt. He’s quite possibly the best playmaker in the draft with a solid offensive game as well.

2. Charlotte Hornets/Los Angeles Clippers

The Hornets and Clippers consummated the second move the night by swapping their own draft picks. The Hornets took Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with the 11th pick and then immediately traded him to the Clippers for Miles Bridges, whom Los Angeles selected at No. 12.

For the Hornets, they get a guy who can play both forward positions. Bridges is more of a small forward but in small ball lineups, he can slide over to the four. Offensively he is at his best when he puts the ball on the floor and attacks the rim. He’s a decent shooter too.

The Clippers get a point guard who was rumored to climbing up many draft boards as the night approached. Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid pick for them provided both Patrick Beverly and Milos Teodosic’ injury history. He can also play off the ball if need be. He’s got the physical tools to be a very good defender at the NBA level. It’s not at all far-fetched to imagine him as the future long-term starting point guard for the Clippers.

The Hornets also got two future second-round picks from the Clippers.

3. Philadelphia 76ers/Phoenix Suns

The Sixers and the Suns had the next move of draft night, also swapping their picks. The Sixers selected hometown hero Mikal Bridges with the No. 10 pick and later traded him to the Suns for the No. 16 pick, Zhaire Smith.

Bridges made a lot of sense for the Sixers. Not only is he a local guy, but his mother works for the team as well. He was a talented player who fit their team. He gave a post-draft press conference raving about being a Sixer all the while he had been traded already. But such is life in the NBA. Instead, Phoenix gets a guy that’s ready to contribute in the NBA right away. He’s the prototypical 3&D type guy.

For the Sixers, Zhaire Smith is another guy who was steadily climbing the boards in the days leading up to the draft. He’s a very athletic prospect with good defensive instincts. He probably won’t play much right away, but he does have the potential to end up being one of the better rotation players in this draft.

The Sixers also get a 2021 first-round pick from the Suns via the Miami Heat. It’s highly likely this ends up being a lottery pick and thus giving the Sixers the chance to add a high-end talent to an already potent group.

4. Second-Round moves

There are a few second-round moves that were made as well.

For one, the Hawks selected Devonte Graham with the 34th pick and traded him to the Hornets for two future second-round picks. Graham is another NBA ready guy who can come in and immediately contend for backup point guard minutes behind Kemba Walker.

The Sixers were involved in another deal sending the No. 38 pick Khyri Thomas to the Detroit Pistons for two future second-round picks. Thomas is a player that many projected to go in the first round. For a team that didn’t have a first-round pick coming into the night, the Pistons essentially picked one up. It’s possible he turns out better than Detroit’s most recent first-rounders Henry Ellenson and Luke Kennard.

The Sacramento Kings drafted Gary Trent Jr. with the 37th pick only to trade him to the Portland Trail Blazers for two future second-round picks. Trent was one of the better shooters in the draft and that’s what he projects to the be in the NBA. He’s probably a few years away from earning a spot in the rotation but he was also a possible first-round pick. He’s more NBA ready than Anfernee Simons who the Blazers took in the first-round.

The Orlando Magic and Denver Nuggets swapped second-round picks with the Magic sending the No. 41 pick Jarred Vanderbilt to the Nuggets for the No. 43 pick Justin Jackson and a future second-round pick. Vanderbilt is a project in every sense of the word. He’s extremely raw and probably needed more time in college. But he’s got long-term potential and could pay off in the future. Jackson, on the other hand, was possibly a first-round talent had he entered the draft last year. He’s going to have to make the roster but could be a 3&D guy.

In the final move of the night, the Hornets traded the No. 45 pick Hamidou Diallo to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Diallo is a guy that had he come out last year, probably would’ve been a first-round guy. In any case, he is also very raw and will need seasoning in the G-League. He’s got all the physical tools and skill to be a good rotation NBA player.

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