Free Agency Cometh
The 2018 NBA Agency window will come open this Sunday, and while there won’t be the huge influx of cap money we have seen in the previous two off-seasons, there will be roughly eight NBA teams with major cap money to play with, if they so choose. There will be some teams looking to land big fish with big dollar deal, but it won’t be the same kind of windfall we’ve seen in previous seasons.
While it is unlikely we’ll see some of the silly spending of season’s past, there are some names to watch as free agency opens. Here are some of the more notable guys, and what the trending belief in NBA circles is suggesting may play out.
DeMarcus Cousins – New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans big man DeMarcus Cousins has been documenting his recovery from a January left Achilles tendon tear on social media, illustrating his process. His injury status is going to weigh big in his ability to command a huge contract offer on the open market for a couple of significant reasons. The biggest being that no one knows how the injury will impact his performance on the floor and he won’t be anywhere close to ready to workout or showcase.
The other major factor that looms over Cousins’ free agency is his rocky and tumultuous history. There are NBA teams that simply won’t consider Cousins because of his history despite having a pretty solid run with very few issues in New Orleans.
League sources peg the Dallas Mavericks as the likely suitor to set a price on Cousins, with New Orleans having the advantage regarding being able to exceed the salary cap and offer larger annual raises, even if a deal is shorter in length.
The prevailing thought in NBA circles is that Cousins may agree to an offer similar to what Philadelphia 76ers big man Joel Embiid agreed to, which is an elaborate deal with guarantee triggers and exit language if Cousins is not able to return to form.
There has been speculation about Cousins agreeing to shorter-term lower dollar deal to join a desired destination and prove himself on a winner, but league sources continue to doubt that’s what will play out.
If Cousins is genuinely[SK1] willing to accept fewer guaranteed years to re-establish himself as one of the league dominate big men, that could bode well, as the Pelicans are said to be more than willing to re-sign Cousins.
Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic
Several weeks ago, it seemed likely that the Orlando Magic would give pause to re-signing would-be restricted free agent Aaron Gordon on a massive deal. However, with the 2018 NBA Draft in the rear-view mirror, there are more and more indications that re-signing Gordon is simply a formality.
There is a chance that one of the cap space teams makes an aggressive offer to Gordon, but with the Sacramento Kings drafting Marvin Bagley III and the Phoenix Suns nabbing DeAndre Ayton with the top picks, two of the expected suitors for Gordon seem less likely, mainly because of the role each newly drafted rookie is expected to play.
One could argue Gordon could fit in next to those guys, but league sources say with marquee rookies in hand, the odds of a max level offer to Gordon seems remote and unlikely.
Sources close to the Magic have maintained for some time that re-signing Gordon was more likely than not, offering that the only limitation would be a max-level offer. With it seeming more and more unlikely that max money is coming Gordon’s way, the notion of Gordon being back in Orlando next season seems increasingly more likely.
Chris Paul – Houston Rockets
There were reports recently suggesting that would-be Rocket’s free agent Chris Paul and management in Houston were not on the same page regarding a new contract.
While the Rockets were always precluded from offering a deal beyond Paul’s current deal, most in NBA circles believe that Paul agreed to opt-in last summer with the implied understanding Houston would make good to him this summer with a whopper of a new contract.
The problem for Paul is that ownership has changed in Houston, and while the Rockets had a history of extreme spending when it made sense, there is a belief new Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta may not be as open to what could be a massive $40 plus million final year on a max contract for Paul.
Since that story broke, sources near the situation have downplayed tensions between the Rockets and Paul, and that both were on course for a new deal.
Paul attended the NBA Award Show last night and had some fun with the notion there was a rift with the Rockets on social media. There are some realities to the contract situation, mainly that its highly unlikely anyone with cap space would offer Paul a full max offer, so why should the Rockets?
League sources see this situation playing out much as it did for Jrue Holiday and Kyle Lowry; neither got full max offers, but both got hefty new deals that shave a few million here and, in Lowry’s case, an extra year there.
Given Paul’s injury history, it may be hard for him to find an offer better than Houston is going to make, which is why league sources doubted the idea that he’d be anywhere but Houston next season.
Julius Randle – Los Angeles Lakers
The LA Lakers look to be the center of the free agent universe this summer, with what will likely be the most available cap space to offer, should they choose to renounce player rights.
For Lakers forward Julius Randle, this could be telling and important. League sources have said it is likely the Lakers will issue the required Qualifying Offer to secure Randle as a restricted free agent. The problem for Randle is the Lakers can and likely would pull that offer if they get the sense they need the cap space.
There has been a long-running belief that the Dallas Mavericks are more than prepared to set an aggressive free agent price on Randle, one that would make it nearly impossible for the Lakers to match and add two max-level free agents.
The lynchpin in all of this is Randle. While teams can make an offer, Randle is under no obligation to accept it, although he would run the risk of a team offering that money to someone else.
The prevailing thought around Randle is that his first choice is to be back with the Lakers, but he understands the situation and may be willing to give the Lakers a day or two into the process before he makes a decision.
What’s been said a few times is that Randle is not going to miss his window to secure his long-term future waiting on the Lakers, so there is a timing factor to all of this.
While Randle can verbally accept another team’s offer, he can’t physically sign it until July 6. The Lakers would have three days from receipt of the signed offer to decide to match or not match. So there is some time for all of it to play out if a major free agent like LeBron James takes his time deciding.
Paul George – Oklahoma City Thunder
It was recently announced that Oklahoma City Thunder free agent Paul George was going to chronicle his free agent process in a behind-the-scenes way in a three-part series.
In early May there was a growing vibe that George might be leaning more towards a return to the Thunder than making his expected jump to the Lakers.
The narrative around that talk was that Paul has for the first time in a while had a supporting cast with other proven stars that didn’t require him to carry the full burden of the franchise. Despite getting bounced early in the post-season, the talk emanating from the situation was George believed the Thunder could be special, especially if they were able to get their players back healthy.
That was the talk in early May.
Now that the dust has settled, and the emotions of the season are in the rearview, there are more and more players that have been in George’s world saying the pendulum has swung back to the Lakers, and that signing a long-term max deal in LA with the Lakers seems more likely than not.
The Thunder are said to be open to structuring a deal in whatever way makes sense for George, including a one-and-one if he genuinely wants to try and make the Thunder work.
Its far from a lock that George is signing with the Lakers, but it does seem its more likely the Lakers or Thunder than any third team or scenario.
LeBron James – Cleveland Cavaliers
Let’s be real about LeBron James’ future: No one really knows. If you talk to enough people, you will hear some very convincing arguments and opinions, but no one really knows.
In previous years when James was pondering his future, there were at least credible rumblings about his interest; this time around, none of it is coming from James’ side of the fence.
Word from NBA teams hoping to get a meeting is that the process will be very closed and very private. LeBron is unlikely to take many if any face to face meetings. There was talk of some conference calls if James wants to do that, but that most of the offers and situations would flow through James’ agents and he would make his decision.
No one is expecting a quick decision from James, and most teams are more than ready to wait out the process for a shot at the franchise changing talent that James is both on and off the court.
One thing that continues to surface regarding James is the understanding that regardless of what team he chooses, that team will be rebuilding around James in a win-now scenario. The idea of James playing mentor and teacher to a roster full of young guys for a year or two is misplaced.
The teams that would comment about James (and some wouldn’t touch it even on background) said no matter where he landed the next job, that front office would have to be ready to assemble an immediate contender, at whatever cost.
That may not sit well with fans of teams loaded with promising youth, but that’s the reality of getting in business with James, and that doesn’t look to be changing this go around either.
As we get closer to the opening of the floodgates, Basketball Insiders will have you covered with minute by minute coverage of all the deals the rumors, news and deals that get agreed to in our annual NBA Free Agency Diary. It will drop on Friday and be updated all the way through the moratorium.
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NBA Daily: Quality Free Agents Still Available
Many quality free agents are still available nearly three weeks into free agency, writes James Blancarte.
With the NBA Summer League over and training camps a few months away, the NBA would normally be quiet this time of year. Apparently the San Antonio Spurs and Toronto Raptors didn’t get the memo as they agreed to a trade centered around Kawhi Leonard and DeMar DeRozan. Additionally, Carmelo Anthony has finally been traded to relieve the Oklahoma City Thunder from a tremendous tax burden.
As the dust settles from these trades, many free agents continue to wait in the wings. The list includes many talented players who will eventually make their way back onto an NBA team’s roster. Some will return to the team they played for last year, which is especially likely for restricted free agents (e.g., Marcus Smart). Some may, for a variety of reasons, not return to an NBA roster. Last year Rodney Stuckey sat the year out and used the time to improve his health in order to make a comeback this year. Former All-Star center Roy Hibbert just announced his retirement at age 31 after not being active last season.
The list of available restricted free agents has seriously dwindled now nearly three weeks into the free agency period. RFAs such as Marcus Smart (back to the Boston Celtics) and Jabari Parker (to the Chicago Bulls) have recently signed new contracts. These signings, among others, leaves Houston Rockets RFA center Clint Capela and Los Angeles Clippers RFA center Montrezl Harrell as two of the bigger names left on the board.
Available Restricted Free Agents:
Clint Capela is coming off of his best and most efficient season averaging 13.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks in 27.5 minutes a game (all career highs) and he is only 24 years old. Capela also spearheaded a defense that, when combined with James Harden’s offensive mastery, pushed the Golden State Warriors to the brink in the Western Conference Finals. Reports are that Capela has turned down an initial offer to re-sign for well below his max. While the clock ticks on the Rockets and Capela, Capela finds himself in what remains a punitive free agent market. The Sacramento Kings is the only other team capable of immediately signing Capela to a competitive contract to lure him away from the Rockets. To make matters worse, the Kings have been committed to stocking their roster with as many big men as possible making them a less-than-ideal suitor for Capela’s services.
Montrezl Harrell won’t generate as many headlines as the other RFAs that have been in the news lately but don’t sleep on him. In a season that never went according to plan for the Clippers, Harrell was one of the bright spots for the team. Harrell, acquired by the Clippers in the Chris Paul trade, showed tenacity on offense as he served as a strong offensive rebounder, floor runner and helped the Clippers weather a five-game stretch where center DeAndre Jordan was unavailable. Harrell played especially well in place of Jordan. However, working against Harrell is the Clipper’s roster crunch. The team has 18 players on the roster, not counting Harrell. If the Clippers do ultimately decide to bring back Harrell, the Clippers will have to make several moves to clear roster spots.
Cleveland Cavaliers RFA wing Rodney Hood also remains available. Utah Jazz fans can relate to the ups and downs of cheering for Hood who has flashes of brilliant play but remains inconsistent. Hood was acquired during last season to help bolster the Cavaliers’ championship run. However, Hood’s scoring, three-point shooting, overall statistics and minutes went down significantly due to his uneven play. While Hood is still a capable player, his time with the Cavaliers did not end well, which has impacted his stock around the league. It didn’t help Hood’s cause when he was benched in the postseason and he subsequently refused to enter the game when instructed to. The Kings, in need of help on the wing, could be a suitor for Hood’s services. However, Cleveland could match any such offer as the franchise continues to build a new team after the loss of LeBron James.
Available Unrestricted Free Agents:
The group of remaining unrestricted free agents is a mixed bag. As mentioned above, there is at least a chance that one of these players may not even make a roster when the dust settles this offseason. Dwyane Wade has bounced around the league the last few years with stints with the Bulls, Cavaliers and a most recent return to the Miami HEAT under his belt. Wade remains capable of spurts of offense and is a fan favorite in Miami. The most obvious result here is a return to Miami. However, Wade himself commented regarding a potential return or possibly retirement.
“When I get back from China, I’ll focus on that [decision],” Wade said while in China. “The basketball will take care of itself. I’ll sit down and figure that out once I get back from this tour at some point.”
Michael Beasley remains unsigned despite a strong outing last season for the New York Knicks. Beasley started 30 of 74 games played. His numbers don’t jump off the boxscore: 13.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists in 22.3 minutes. However, these are some of the best numbers he’s put up in years and the most consistent he has played since 2012-13. The Knicks may likely move on from Beasley but he remains a viable scorer who could come off the bench and start in a pinch for many teams if the price is right.
Jamal Crawford and Nick Young
Jamal Crawford and Nick Young remain unsigned veterans who offer potential teams a scoring punch off the bench. Young has the benefit of showing that he contributed in spurts to the Warrior’s championship season while not becoming a distraction. Both are known for knocking down difficult outside shots but can be inefficient scorers and potential liabilities on defense.
A few notable big men remain available as well. Phoenix Center Alex Len never became the elite big man the Suns had hoped for when they used the fifth pick in the 2013 draft to acquire him. However he remains a serviceable player. For his career, Len averages 7.2 points and 6.2 rebounds in 19.9 minutes. He is somewhat mobile and could be a strong option for a team looking for a backup center. Centers Al Jefferson and Jahill Okafor can both score the basketball but have to directly combat the notion that they have become antiquated. The modern game calls for mobile centers that shoot reliably from the outside to stretch the floor, are efficient on offense, can guard the rim as well as being at least somewhat capale of covering ball handlers on switches. Okafar and Jefferson don’t fit that profile and will have to convince potential suitors that despite their meager contributions over the last few seasons that they can sufficiently adapt to the modern game and make a positive impact.
NBA: Kawhi Leonard for DeMar DeRozan Makes Sense
In an unexpected move, DeMar DeRozan and Kawhi Leonard swapped teams, and it makes complete sense.
The Kawhi Leonard saga in San Antonio is finally over.
In the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday, news broke via Twitter that Leonard was about to be shipped across the Canadian border to the Toronto Raptors for — get this — DeMar DeRozan.
Leonard, and his deteriorated relationship with the San Antonio Spurs, dominated the offseason headlines, and while reports constantly whizzed around about where the All-Star small forward would wind up — maybe Los Angeles, maybe Philadelphia, maybe Boston — his final destination is one that came completely out of left field (despite the current odds).
While many people viewed the situation with Leonard as a chance for San Antonio to start fresh and plan for the future, the Spurs appeared to have no interest in that avenue. The entirety of the deal, Leonard and Danny Green for DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, and a top-20 protected 2019 first-round pick displays a win-now outcome for each party.
After winning 59 games and obtaining the top overall seed in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors eventually were bounced by the Cleveland Cavaliers in a sweeping fashion. Dwane Casey, the 2017-18 Coach of the Year, was fired after not being able to extend the franchises’ best season to an NBA Finals appearance. It appeared, with LeBron moving West, that the Raptors were going to run it back one more time to see if they could finally break through to the game’s biggest stage.
On the other side, the Spurs were coming off of a season in which they won 47 games and were two games out of the Western Conference’s third seed — all of which they achieved without Leonard. In the waning years of Gregg Popovich’s career, it appeared his team was still talented enough, and system still effective enough, to make relevant noise in the playoffs without a superstar player.
At its core, this deal comes down to each team swapping their best player for the other’s. Leonard gets out of San Antonio, to a team whose core won 59 games in the East. DeRozan gets the benefit of fitting into a system with the best head coach in the league, on a very competitive roster.
Now, it remains to be seen how happy each player will be in their situations. Reports surfaced early Wednesday morning that both players were dissatisfied with the trade outcome. But, as we all know, winning cures everything.
On the Spurs’ front, it’s interesting how little they considered trade packages for future picks and quality role players. ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported San Antonio rebuffed offers from the Sixers and Celtics that were centered around future assets, in turn focusing their trade efforts on the likes of Ben Simmons, and the Celtics’ young core. Instead of landing a handful of assets or players that may not materialize until Popovich is gone, the Spurs reeled in a player who is a year removed from averaging 27 points per game. Oh, by the way, he’s also under contract for the next three seasons.
DeRozan keeps the Spurs relevant. Maybe he doesn’t help them beat the Golden State Warriors (in fact, he most certainly doesn’t), but he allows his new team the chance to win meaningful games in the postseason over the next three years.
From everything that’s been reported, there was no way Popovich was going to commit the final few years of his NBA life to a rebuild. With a man like that at the helm, and a star player like DeRozan under contract, who knows what other tricks San Antonio might have up its sleeve.
Up in Toronto, if the Raptors can convince Leonard to play this season, their core plus an upgrade on the wing might finally be enough to break through to the Finals. New head coach Nick Nurse suddenly has a player widely regarded as a top-five talent in the league on his roster to accompany a deep and talented core. Although, just like in San Antonio, Leonard might not add enough to the Raptors to dethrone the Warriors. However, he suddenly has a better supporting cast to try and give Golden State a run for its money.
Plus, given Toronto’s inability to get out of the East, a Finals appearance in its own right would be considered a success next season.
All around, maybe this wasn’t the deal we expected to get Leonard out of San Antonio, but digesting the move from all angles, it appears to be the most sensible.
NBA Daily: Wizards Put Wild In “Wild Card”
The Wizards’ reputation as an enigma, combined with their most recent moves could make their team a contender just as much as it could make them a trainwreck.
The Wizards were in the headlines for all the wrong reasons last year.
Being hamstrung by injuries, most notably by John Wall who missed half the season, Washington took an egregious step back in 2018. The team still made the playoffs, and they even gave Toronto a competitive series in the first round. Alas, the headline of their story surrounding them was their inner dysfunction.
To be clear, there had already been reports of contention, specifically between Wall and Bradley Beal, prior to this season, but more and more reports of hostility in the locker room leaked out as the season progressed.
With Wall nursing an injury mid-season, Marcin Gortat praised the team for how they won without its star point guard.
Unbelievable win tonight ! Great "team" victory!
— Marcin Gortat🇵🇱 (@MGortat) February 2, 2018
Wall did not take too kindly to Gortat’s words, as he said Gortat was “spoon-fed buckets.” The two made up, but that wasn’t the only instance. Following a fight he had with Wall, Dallas Mavericks guard Jose Juan Barea went on record stating that he thought fellow Wizards didn’t like their franchise player.
These were the most prevalent of several incidents that indicated that things weren’t running smoothly with D.C.’s basketball team. Once Wall stated that the team needed upgrades following their playoff elimintation, it was clear some changes were in order.
Since the off-season has commenced, the Wizards have made said changes. The real question is, will these changes cease the flames or merely fan them?
First, they traded Gortat for Austin Rivers. The motive was obvious for this deal. If they hadn’t done so already, Gortat and Wall were one more squabble from going at each other’s throats, so it was one or the other between the two of them. With Gortat on the downside of his career and Wall being one of the league’s top point guards in the prime of his career, it was clear that Gortat was the odd man out.
Then there’s who the return that the Wiz received for Gortat. For years, Washington has searched for years to find that third guard to spell their elite backcourt. From Martell Webster to Garrett Temple to Brandon Jennings to Tim Frazier, the Wizards have auditioned various players to fill in the role as their first guard off the bench to no avail.
Now, they may have very well found the perfect man for the job in Austin Rivers.
Laugh all you want. Adding Rivers could pay huge dividends for the Wizards. It is true that Rivers has developed a bad reputation since joining. He’s a punk. He’s a bust. He’s a daddy’s boy. Rivers deserves most of the labels he’s been given, but the one label he doesn’t deserve is scrub.
Rivers’ improvement since joining his father in Hollywood has fallen under the radar because he has become, as I like to call it, one of the most “over-hated” players in the league. Since joining the Clippers in 2015, Rivers has gradually seen both his scoring and assist average double, as he posted career-highs in both categories this season – 15.1 points a game and 4.0 assists a game – while also shooting a career-high 37.8 percent from three. Those numbers should make Wizards fans excited that he’s going be the team’s third guard.
The concerns with Rivers are very real, but his skill set makes him the guy the Wizards have been looking for. On paper at least.
Then, there’s Jeff Green.
You know how they say, “If at first you don’t succeed, try try again?” Well with Jeff Green, it’s, “If at first you don’t succeed, lower your standards.”
For years, Jeff Green has managed to consistently disappoint no matter how low the expectations go for him despite his obvious talent. The bar for Green was at the absolute lowest this season as the Cavs wanted him as a backup wing and nothing else, to which Jeff passed with flying colors, if not more so.
Much to the chagrin of any Celtics, Grizzlies, or Clippers fan who rooted for the guy, Jeff came through for the Cavs when they needed him to. With Cleveland down 3-2 to Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals and Kevin Love out with a concussion, Jeff stepped it up. Averaging 16.5 points on 46 percent shooting and averaging 5.5 rebounds, Jeff played a huge hand in dealing the final blow to his former team’s season.
The lesson to take from all this is that Jeff Green can succeed when little is expected of him. The lower the bar, the happier you’ll be with him. Coming to Washington, Green’s not expected to be any more than Mike Scott’s replacement, so Washington should get its money’s worth. On paper at least.
Finally, of course, there’s Dwight Howard.
I’ve already written about Howard’s career tailspin in the last half-decade, so there’s no need to bring that up again. Instead, let’s focus on who Dwight is as a player currently.
By all means, Dwight should give Washington quite the boost. Regardless of how far he’s fallen, Dwight is still an impactful player, and the numbers speak for themselves. While other parts of his game have fallen, Howard’s presence on the boards is still as strong as ever.
Before acquiring Dwight, Charlotte ranked 16th in the NBA in total rebound averages with 43.6 a game in 2017, but after bringing him in, the Hornets rose all the way to third this season with 45.5. Atlanta, who had previously employed Dwight in 2017, ranked ninth in the league with 44.3 rebounds a game but dropped all the way to 25th this season with 41.9 after trading him.
The Wiz have had severe struggles punding the glass over the last three years, as detailed below.
2017-2018: 43.1 rebounds a game (ranked no. 21)
2016-2017: 42.9 rebounds a game (ranked no. 22)
2015-2016: 41.8 rebounds a game (ranked no. 26)
So they should be thrilled to have Howard aboard.
Howard is also still a quality athlete even if he’s not the basketball goliath he once was. In Charlotte, he had his best statistical season since his first year in Houston, so there’s plenty of good basketball left in him. Given that he signed for just the mid-level exception, he should be a smart investment.
On paper at least.
Howard should be a fantastic fit in Washington should he fall in line, but history shows that he’s incapable of doing that. Howard’s skills still fit in well with the NBA, but he’s shown that he only plays by his rules, which has led to him being thrown out of every situation he’s been in. For both him and Washington, this is probably their last chance.
Talent-wise, the Wizards have what it takes to compete with the best in the east with their new additions. They added a more-than-qualified third guard that they’ve desperately needed, they added a solid backup wing, and they upgraded at center. However, their perplexing history since their surprise playoff run in 2014 makes it hard to know what their ceiling truly is. See for yourself.
2015: An injured John Wall and an Al Horford buzzer beater stopped them from making the conference finals
2016: Missed the playoffs
2017: A Kelly Olynyk performance of a lifetime stopped them from making the conference finals
2018: They got ousted in the first round as an eighth seed in a throw-away season
There aren’t that many teams who have been as enigmatic over the last four years as Washington has. They are as talented as they are egotistical. They’ve shown that they can play some beautiful basketball together and they’ve shown that they can tear each other apart. Adding Rivers, Green, and Howard, three serviceable players (at the very least), is sensible since depth has also been one of their biggest holes.
But there’s a reason why Austin Rivers isn’t very well-liked around the league. There’s a reason why Jeff Green has bounced around like a hot potato in the last three and a half years. There’s a reason why every team that’s employed Dwight Howard has happily waved bye-bye when they shipped him out of town.
The Wizards are not a lock to make a run after the moves they’ve made. But, given the state that they were in coming into this summer, they’ve done about as well as they could have reasonably expected.