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NBA Daily: First Quarter Grades: Southeast Division

Ben Nadeau finishes Basketball Insiders’ “First Quarter Grades” series with a look at the Southeast Division.

Ben Nadeau

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It’s hard to believe that the new NBA season is nearly a quarter of the way finished already — yet the calendar has just slipped into December. With some wild storylines and exciting narratives to follow, it’s been difficult to get a handle on many franchises through the first two months of the campaign. This week, Basketball Insiders started assessing each division and handing out first quarter grades for each team — so if you’re itching to head back to school, they’re all available below.

On Monday, Spencer Davies doled out grades for the Central Division — but don’t look, Cavaliers fans. Then Jesse Blancarte nailed down the Pacific, David Yapkowitz handled the Northwest, Drew Maresca tackled the tricky Atlantic and Shane Rhodes broke down the Southwest yesterday. Which, again, leaves the Southeast Division to wrap things up in this series. How should the Hawks, HEAT, Hornets, Magic and Wizards feel after a little more than 20 games played?

Atlanta Hawks — A

The Hawks, in no uncertain terms, were destined to lose this year. Fated, almost. With an incredibly young roster and a great opportunity to add another highly-touted prospect, they never had a reason to effectively compete in 2018-19. And, through 20-plus games: so far, so good. The Hawks’ 5-18 record trails just Cleveland and Phoenix for the league’s worst record and, honestly, they’re right where they want to be.

Over the last week, the Hawks moved Kevin Huerter into the starting lineup along with Trae Young, John Collins, Taurean Prince and Dewayne Dedmon. Once you toss in DeAndre Bembry and Omari Spellman off the bench, Atlanta has collected a promising core to build their next era around. However, drafting one of the Duke Blue Devils’ cavalcade of rim-rattling, bucket-getting prospects — Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett or Cam Reddish — would be a game-changer for Atlanta.

Grading teams like the Hawks can be difficult as their letter could easily be in the D or F range if the narrative was just simply re-written. The Hawks rank in dead last in both turnovers and offensive rating, while their shooting percentages remain well-below par for competitive franchises. They’re barely playing veterans like Jeremy Lin and Vince Carter, but also look unlikely to move Kent Bazemore’s contract that will cost the Hawks $19.2 million in 2019-20.

And yet, none of that really matters. The Hawks get to develop their promising talent while also preparing for greener pastures next year and beyond — that alone is worth an A in the modern win-or-tank landscape.

Charlotte Hornets — B

Thanks to the ever-smoldering Kemba Walker, the Hornets have exceeded expectations early on. Still, they’re just 11-11 and deeply entwined within the Eastern Conference’s messy second-tier — a couple wins and they could have homecourt advantage, while a small losing streak might bump them outside the playoff race altogether. Despite some frustrating, uneven performances, there are plenty of reasons to stay excited about this new incarnation of a mostly similar roster.

Firstly, head coach James Borrego has done well to create an instantly-cohesive unit, bring the once-troubled Malik Monk along and carve out his own succinct rotation. While that’s left players like Frank Kaminsky and Bismack Biyombo out in the cold, others have begun to bloom. The addition of veteran Tony Parker has proven shrewd and Jeremy Lamb continues his breakout from 2017-18. Miles Bridges is good for a highlight or two (or three) almost every night and longtime members like Nicolas Batum, Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams continue to contribute efficiently.

As of now, the Hornets rank sixth in offensive rating (112.0) and 10th in three-point percentage (35.9), while their defensive rating has been as high as 10th in recent days. Altogether, those numbers point toward an overall fearsome unit in this current NBA landscape, that should go without saying. Should any rumors about Bradley Beal come to fruition, then the Hornets would be really cooking with hot grease. If the Hornets can iron out their inconsistencies — three of their losses have come against the Bulls, Hawks and Cavaliers — then we’ll really see just how good this team can be.

Orlando Magic — C+

At 11-11 and the current holders of the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed, it’s been an optimistically strong start for the Orlando Magic. Coming into the season, the Magic boasted talented prospects, but little cohesiveness — so far, they’ve done well to survive the early slog. Nikola Vucevic, a man reborn, is averaging a career-high in points (20.8), assists (3.9) and field goal percentage (55.5), shepherding the way for a mostly inexperienced Magic roster. Aaron Gordon has slightly trended downward statistically, but he’s making good on his new mega-deal worth about $76 million thus far, while Jonathan Isaac and Mohamed Bamba are still looking to find consistent footing.

Despite their lack of an absolute, undeniable star, Orlando has played unselfishly to the tune of 26.4 assists per game, a tally that’s sixth-best across the league. Even better, their turnovers also rank low at 13.7, as veterans D.J. Augustin and Evan Fournier have taken care of the ball quite well. If the Magic want to make the most of the 2018-19 campaign, they’ll likely need to trade for another point guard — but would that price of such an acquisition be worth it? Even if Orlando sneaks into the postseason, they don’t stand much of a chance against the conference elite up north. Moving forward, it’ll be key to find opportunities for Isaac and Bamba as they’re franchise cornerstones and their development, no matter what ultimately happens in the standings, is the top priority.

Still, the early returns on the Steve Clifford-led Magic are sunny, so achieving anything else this season would be the cherry on top.

Miami HEAT — C-

At a cursory glance, the Miami HEAT roster looks like one of the Southeast’s most competitive bunches. Instead, the on-court performances and overwhelming injuries have left the HEAT reeling in the lurch, and, most importantly, in conference limbo. The HEAT are better than their 8-13 record, most definitely, but they need to get healthy in a hurry. This roster full of strong second and third-best options was screaming out for a gritty Jimmy Butler addition last month, but the front office stayed put — now where do they go from here?

The ever-reliable Goran Dragic has missed Miami’s last six games, over which they’ve limped to a 2-4 record. Earlier in the season, Dragic missed three more contests and the HEAT promptly went 1-2. Yes, Dragic (16.3 points, 4.7 assists) is truly that important, both in his scoring abilities and offensive facilitation. And yet, the struggles go beyond that. Tyler Johnson hasn’t played since Nov. 20 and the enigmatic Dion Waiters isn’t close to making his season debut either. Dwyane Wade, in the midst of his well-deserved retirement tour, took off for seven games to be with his family following the birth of his daughter.

Josh Richardson has performed admirably in his newfound role of the go-to, well, everything, but the HEAT fall short in some major categories. Miami turns the ball over at an alarming rate, and although their defensive rating holds firm (106.9, tenth-best), the offense ranks among the NBA’s worst so far. It’s far too early to panic about HEAT, especially in the Eastern Conference but this team’s strength is clearly its depth. Even Rodney McGruder has gone from undrafted to essential in the span of three years — 12.2 points, five rebounds, 3.4 assists per game — and James Johnson continues to be a hulking pest defensively.

But if they’re not going to pull the trigger on a star-worthy acquisition, Miami needs to look inward, get healthy and rediscover some of their grittiness that made them such a pleasant surprise last season.

Washington Wizards — F

This should come as no surprise, unfortunately.

The Wizards, by all accounts, should be good. With a backcourt featuring John Wall and Bradley Beal, they should have ascended to the conference’s upper echelon by now. After adding offseason talents like Dwight Howard and Austin Rivers, the Wizards just had to keep it all together for eight months. Instead, the front office brass was reportedly considering a full and total breakup before Thanksgiving dinner could be served. Wall and Beal are apparently available for trade, although the former will be tough to deal given his supermax contract starts next season.

Beal has already had to deny trade demands on national television, Otto Porter Jr. continues to labor on his max deal and, as if things weren’t already bad, Dwight Howard will likely miss two-to-three months following surgery on his lower back. The talent on this roster is undeniable, but this has been the disappointing story in Washington season after season.

Today, the Wizards rank 20th in offensive rating, 17th in assist-to-turnover ratio, 27th in rebounding and a staggeringly poor 29th in defensive rating. While Howard is no longer quite the defensive anchor he once was, his absence won’t make things any easier for his teammates. Thomas Bryant has struggled since becoming the de facto center, but the Wizards’ other options — Ian Mahinmi and Jason Smith — don’t offer any upside at all.

At some point — perhaps sooner rather than later — the Wizards will finally accept that this formula isn’t working and attempt to start from scratch. However, since it’s still the Eastern Conference, the Wizards are 8-14 and remain just two games behind the final playoff spot. Of course, there’s time to salvage this cross-country trainwreck, but does anybody actually believe they’re headed down the road to recovery?

It’s now officially December, which means these five franchises must take serious stock of their conference-wide standing. While the Hawks are sitting pretty, developing their studs and coming closer to a higher draft pick every day, the other squads have room to improve. Between the HEAT, Hornets, Magic and Wizards, the Southeast Division figures to be plenty busy between now and the trade deadline. Blow it up or push all in, these early season grades could look completely different down the road — but, for now, these feel like a fair representation of each team’s respective status at this point in the season.

Ben Nadeau is a Seattle-based writer in his third year with Basketball Insiders. For five seasons, he covered the Brooklyn Nets for The Brooklyn Game.

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Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards

Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.

Drew Maresca

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It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.

Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.

The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.

But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.

Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old

Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.

But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.

Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.

Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old

Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.

And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.

While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.

If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.

Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old

Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).

Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.

Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.

Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old

Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.

Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.

But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.

Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.

Honorable Mentions:

Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old

Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old

Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old

With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.

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NBA Daily: Opposite Plotlines for Today’s Matchups

With the two matchups going on today, Matt John examines the two teams who could be in the most trouble because of one of their individual stars for opposite reasons.

Matt John

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The second round of the NBA playoffs was hyped up to be one of the most entertaining we’ve had in years. So far, they haven’t fallen short of expectations. We knew that Houston and Los Angeles’ battle of opposite philosophies would make for some twists and turns. We knew that Boston and Toronto would duke it out in an Atlantic Division showdown. We knew that Miami would push Milwaukee to new heights. We didn’t really know if the Nuggets would give the Clippers a good series, but the fact that they have so far has made an intense postseason all the more gripping.

Anyway, today we’re getting two games from two series in completely opposite places. The Lakers and the Rockets will face off for the series lead, while the HEAT will try to finish off the Bucks once and for all. Below, we’re going to focus on two teams who have an individual star that either may be more flawed than we thought or one that may not be as flawed as we thought.

Bucks vs. HEAT: Giannis is great and all, but…

We all pretty much knew this was going to be a good series. We did not expect this.

The buzz surrounding Bucks v. HEAT was that Miami was going to make Milwaukee earn every win they got in this series. If that was the plan, then Miami has failed miserably, because until Khris Middleton went supernova on them on Sunday, Milwaukee had come up terribly short.

Let’s first give Miami the credit that they are due and more. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler alone, Miami was going to be a tough matchup for Milwaukee – but to see the Bucks all but roll over in this series is an unpleasant sight. Acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala has paid huge dividends and it’s showing. There are other factors involved, but Miami’s defensive efforts have limited Giannis to 21.8 points a game and that’s played a role in the HEAT being in the driver’s seat of this series.

Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, this series has not been a good look for the Defensive Player of the Year. Especially since it looks like his second consecutive MVP (presumably) is right around the corner. So, to see both him and Milwaukee, once an unstoppable force without an immovable object in sight, get stopped by a sturdy but not immovable squad is saddening.

Nearly a year ago, Basketball Insiders compared these current Bucks to the Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic from the late-2000’s/early 2010’s. To oversimplify things, both were contenders led by a superstar with a rare physique that made them tough to stop. To put the superstar in the best position, they surrounded them with playmakers and three-point shooters.

While the teams’ roster constructions weren’t exactly the same, their strengths as a team certainly were. Now we’re seeing the Bucks’ flaws just as we did the Magic 10 years ago. If you have the personnel to make the lone superstar uncomfortable, the team doesn’t function as well.

Giannis is near impossible to stop, but the one major flaw is that if you take away his ability to drive and force him into a jumper, he loses his rhythm. Even if his shot is on – never a guarantee – his opponents will let him beat them that way until he makes them pay. Hardly any team can pick on this, but the HEAT are one of them, and now they’re one win away from their first Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James took his talents out of South Beach.

This ultimately is what puts Antetokounmpo below the likes of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard for now. Those guys are rare physical specimens like him, but their elite games don’t revolve entirely around their natural gifts as he does or Dwight did. At 25 years old, there’s plenty of time for him to change that and, for all we know, he will, but to see him struggle at a time when the conference was supposed to run through him has ignited tons of questions.

Milwaukee’s technically not out yet, but they’ve shown their mortality against Miami. If this really is it for them, then they’ve got to find a quick fix for this problem because if they don’t, then the unspeakable may happen.

Lakers vs. Rockets: Westbrook has been bad and all but…

Shaking off the rust and recovering from a balky knee would be tough for anyone. For Russell Westbrook, it’s killing his productivity and, in turn, the Rockets’ playoff chances. He’s averaging 15.6 points on 39/16/47 splits with a most recent 10-point, 4-of-15 effort from the field which included seven turnovers and air balling wide-open threes sticking out like a sore thumb.

It also doesn’t help that he’s playing the Lakers of all teams. When Westbrook has been in, the Lakers have taken advantage of his shortcomings offensively and it shows both on the court and the stat line.

Most of Westbrook’s damage is hurting Houston on the offensive end. With the All-Star guard in the game, Houston is minus-13.7 with him on the court, the worst offensive rating on the team. The 12 turnovers he’s coughed up in this series probably have something to do with that.

With Westbrook’s struggles and his predecessor Chris Paul coming off of his best individual season since 2016, this, of course, has led to many second-guessing the swap last summer. Or let’s rephrase that: People have been second-guessing that trade since the moment it was announced and, in light of recent events, they’re piling on now more than ever.

Maybe they’re right. Even after playing in the NBA for over a decade now, Westbrook still hasn’t proven that he can control himself enough to reach his potential as a team player. We’ve seen glimpses. On the other hand, Paul showed that he can still pick apart defenses while holding his own on that end.

But replacing Paul with Westbrook was Harden’s idea. He didn’t want to play with Paul anymore and chose to play with one of his closest friends. You may think that the better fit is what’s best for the team, but we’ve seen the damage that can happen when your team’s best players have friction with one another. It hurt Utah this season. It hurt Boston last season. It destroyed the Lakers back in 2013. There’s no telling what it could have done to Houston this season.

Besides, we know that as bad as Westbrook has been, he’s capable of being better. Not a knockdown shooter, not even an efficient scorer, but he has done better in the past when the focus was on him. The more days he takes to shake off the rust from his knee, the more optimistic the Rockets ought to be.

The Rockets have to take the glass-half-full on this one because they don’t really have a choice otherwise.

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