Training camps start within the week for all NBA teams, which means there will finally be real basketball to digest after a long summer of rumors, anonymous sources and soap opera drama. The following are some questions that each team in the Central Division may face over the course of the preseason. The answers to these, many of which will be provided during October’s slate of warm-up games, should tell us a lot about what sorts of teams these organizations will actually be by the time the regular season finally rolls around.
- What kind of Derrick Rose will Chicago get this season?
- It wasn’t a strong Team USA experience for Derrick Rose from a personal standpoint, as he looked a lot more like the guy who sloughed through ten games last season than the guy who won an MVP trophy in 2011. Everything Chicago is expected to do this season hinges not only on whether or not he can stay healthy, but on if he can still attack and create offense for this team the way he used to. The preseason will tell us a little about this, however last preseason Rose was utterly dominant throughout the warm-ups and by Game 1 of the regular season he seemed to regress. In any event, it will be interesting to get a good look at D-Rose playing NBA competition after two years of knee rehabs.
- How much will Thibodeau use his talented rookies?
While Thibodeau used Tony Snell out of necessity last season, he isn’t typically the kind of coach who enjoys playing rookies. Chicago, however, has two really good ones this year in Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott, both of whom appear ready to contribute immediately. Neither is a typical NBA rookie, as McDermott is 22 years old coming off four years at Creighton, and 23-year-old Mirotic has been arguably Spain’s best player for a couple of years now. These are mature, offensively gifted players who the Bulls could really use, and the preseason will help us get a sense of just how much they might play, at least early on in the season.
- How will the frontcourt minutes shake out?
Part of Mirotic’s problem is that he’s the fourth man up in what some would say is the league’s best and deepest frontcourt. Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah all are vying for minutes, and the preseason will help give a sense of what the pecking order is. Gasol and Noah are expected to start, but Gibson is accustomed to playing pretty big minutes and finishing games. Will that be the case this year? And how does Mirotic play into all of this? Thibodeau has a full preseason to figure it out.
- How will LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love share offensive touches?
Chances are that these guys will figure out how to share the ball eventually, but the preseason is sure to be an adjustment for them as they touch the ball less often than they’re accustomed to. James, for example, was fifth in the league last year with a usage rate of 29.1, but Irving (27.8) and Love (27.7) were both also in the top ten. That’s an 84.6 usage rate combined, which simply isn’t sustainable. All three are guys accustomed to having the ball in their hands, but at least two of them will have to figure out to be effective on that end without using as many possessions for themselves. Camp should show us how, exactly, that’s going to work.
- Will the Cavaliers be as bad defensively as some think they will?
LeBron James is one of the league’s best defensive players. Anderson Varejao is strong on that end as well, as is Shawn Marion. But beyond that? Cleveland looks like they’re going to have some issues. Early games should give a sense of how head coach David Blatt will mask Love’s deficiencies and construct a defense that can still be effective. With a lot of sieves on this roster, that may be easier said than done.
- How will David Blatt handle his first NBA team as a head coach?
People rave about Blatt, a championship coach on just about every level of basketball outside of the NBA, but even the most prized coaching candidates sometimes can fall flat on their faces. That doesn’t seem like it will be the case with Blatt, but it will be interesting to get a first glimpse of his coaching style after a few practices and a couple of preseason games. Can a man with no NBA coaching experience deal with the expectations of a championship season? We’ll get our first look at that during training camp.
- How big a difference does Stan Van Gundy make?
The Pistons have been through more coaches than any other team in the NBA over the last five years, but Van Gundy is the kind of great mind that could actually stick around for a while. With Indiana hurting and most of the rest of the conference outside of Chicago, Washington and Cleveland pretty wide-open, this could be the year Detroit makes it back to the postseason. We should see changes under the Van Gundy regime almost immediately, but what those changes are remain a mystery until the start of the preseason.
- Does the outside shooting look any better than it did a year ago?
The first deal agreed to in this past summer’s massive free agency session was a bloated offer for Jodie Meeks, brought aboard exclusively to knock down three-pointers. The Pistons were 29th in the league last year in three-point field goal percentage and were 26th in three-pointers made. Adding Meeks (and D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler) was meant to remedy that, but will it actually translate to better on-court production? If so it should open up everything for Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe. If not, we’re looking at the same frustrating, congested as offense as a year ago.
- Does Andre Drummond have another level?
Drummond wasn’t an All-Star last year, but he ate the freshmen and sophomores for dinner during the Saturday exhibition and showed enough growth during the regular season to establish himself as one of the brightest rising stars in the league. Will he come back playing older this year, scoring his points as consistently as he’s blocking shots and hauling in rebounds? Dominating the preseason will go a long way toward convincing everyone of that.
- Who’s going to score for these guys?
Here’s a fun fact: With Paul George and Lance Stephenson both gone, the Pacers are losing about 35 points per game, which obviously won’t be easy to replace. While Indiana, who was 24th in the league with 96.7 PPG, isn’t going to start scoring only 60 points a night, their offense inevitably will suffer without those guys. How will players like David West and George Hill and Roy Hibbert respond to the need for more offensive assistance? Training camp should help answer that.
- Will C.J. Miles or Rodney Stuckey end up starting at shooting guard?
For now, it looks like Miles will be the starter, but Stuckey is good enough when healthy to score in bunches, and that may be more of what Frank Vogel needs out of his starting two-guard. While this is by no means the most epic of positional battles in the NBA this preseason, it is possible that both players prove themselves worthy to start. The question is about who will ultimately be given the job.
- Which Roy Hibbert are we getting this year?
We’ve all seen more than enough Hibbert to know that there’s a mild-mannered Dr. Jekyll version of him that can’t seem to grab six rebounds a night despite being one of the tallest players in the NBA, and then there’s a Mr. Hyde version that dunks on people and swats away four shots a game. When he’s confident, Hibbert is among the best centers in the game. When things aren’t going his way, however, he’s pretty brutal. He has his ups and downs during a season, but how he looks in the preseason will give his team a sense of how the new year will start for him.
- Are people expecting too much out of Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Despite being incredibly young and incredibly raw, Giannis Alphabet had a great rookie season in Milwaukee, leading many people to predict a huge breakout campaign during which he places himself among the league’s elite players. It’s important to remember, however, that the Bucks will probably be pretty bad again this year, and that Antetokoumnpo is still only 19 years old. He’ll be no less exciting, but to expect him to be a star in Year 2 is probably unfair. Training camp will give us a sense of how much closer to that he actually is.
- Will Jabari Parker immediately change the vibe here, or will it take time?
Similarly, a lot of hope has been placed in Parker to revive the Bucks, which could realistically happen as long as Parker stays there long-term. He’s exactly the kind of player who does eventually turn a franchise around, but it doesn’t often happen in a rookie season. The overwhelming majority of teams with high lottery picks end up right back in the lottery the next season. The future is brighter for the Bucks than it was 18 months ago, but the present is still pretty bleak. Parker is NBA-ready, but all rookies need time to develop. Preseason games are just the start of that process.
- Who does Jason Kidd value most in this crowded frontcourt?
There’s plenty of talent in the Milwaukee frontcourt, with Larry Sanders, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia all vying for minutes. It was up and down last season as to who got that playing time, but perhaps Kidd will come up with something more substantial and consistent during the preseason, though there’s no telling what will actually roll over to the regular season. Either way, someone in this frontcourt rotation is likely to end up with the short straw this year; there are only so many minutes to go around.
The preseason will be here before we know it, and when it does finally roll around we’ll be given access to the answers we’re looking for. In the meantime, all we have is the questions, and already, they’re all pretty loaded ones.
High-Performance Mindfulness: Pre-Game Work – The Holistic Approach
Pre-game routines are key in priming players for optimal in-game performance. Jake Rauchbach breaks down integrated player development methods for accomplishing this.
Creating the momentum required to produce consistently high-level performance is a delicate process. It’s something that must be cultivated and nurtured daily through disciplined adherence to one’s craft. Doing so ensures the proper velocity needed for a player to instinctually perform at the highest possible level during a game.
Employing holistic pre-game routines may present one of the more efficient ways of doing this. Systematic to the point, integrated player development routines that prime the three levels of the player may increase the probability of cultivating improved in-game results.
Performance momentum is the rate at which a player accesses higher-level flow/production output. In-game production is the byproduct of a player’s consistent focus on his/her craft.
That being said, approaching pre-game prep from this holistic vantage point is about efficiency, and aims to find the fastest way possible to help the player produce come game time.
One of the most effective ways to do this is through a multi-level pre-game player development approach that primes emotional frequency, position-specific skill-development and mental focus. Pairing these approaches has been shown to influence in-game production upwards. Here is how.
Pre-Game Holistic Player Development
The player’s meridian system is like an energetic highway of interconnected pathways where prevailing thoughts, emotions and feelings flow or travel through.
If and when those roadways get blocked – for instance, with the lingering concerns from an off-court issue or the leftover emotion from a previous on-court failure – this can act as baggage weighing down the player’s future performance. When these energy pathways become blocked, it can also impede a player’s ability to access those higher flow states that produce big-time performance.
Helping a player clear the slate of any mental and emotional residue still lingering pre-game by priming the player’s energy system is the best-kept secret of many high-performers. Many Olympians who compete in individualized sports such as track and field and swimming employ this methodology for fast starts.
Employing a pre-game 5-minute energy optimization technique that sleuths out mental and emotional discord can reap dividends come game time. Whether driven by the player or implemented by the hybrid player development coach, leveraging Energy Psychology techniques to reset internal dynamics fast is best practice.
The five-minute period directly before the on-court skill work begins is a great time to do this. Integrating the technique within on-court work helps the player begin to learn how to pair their game and their emotional management together. Making this a component of the pre-game routine gives the player extra repetition for how to do it in a game.
Priming Skill Development
Once the deeper level of the athlete is primed, getting right into player specific skill development is next. The goal here should be to help the player find a rhythm, performance flow, and good feeling; Basically, a skill-development routine that grooves the player.
Each player generally has a routine that they like to employ pre-game. For wings, it may be a combination of spot-shooting, off-ball cuts, and short clock pick and roll action is best. For Bigs it maybe a finishing around the rim package, mid-range catch and shoot and pick and roll action. For point guards, PNRs, spot-shooting and their favorite move, and counter-series could help facilitate the desired rhythm.
The intensity to which players go through their pre-game work is another intriguing piece.
Each player is different, and not all players need to go 100% pre-game to be at their best in-game. Priming performance for the goal of producing maximum level production during the game is an inexact science and is player specific.
However, when there is an absolute focus in pre-game, many times you will see the player touch-into peak-performance states; The player’s pace could look to be game-speed, and the execution rate could mirror that of a late-game situation. This sort of pre-game intensity is generally ideal and is a reflection of the player’s emotional clarity and mental focus. Both of which help to build performance momentum into the game.
Priming Mental Focus
The next layer of this process is mental, and priming mental focus is all about consistency. During pre-game, it is good to have a pre-established mental focus routine in place. Once honed, the player can internally perform the mental cue in under five seconds.
Deliberately working mental focus repetitions into pre-game further prepares players. Employing one or two repetitions is effective. On free throws, or in between drills, players who can knock out mental focus cues before the game are priming mental acuity for in-game action.
Players with pre-existing internal processes like this can proactively read and attack in-game situations as they arise. This helps to increase their probability of success. Greater confidence and cleaner execution are all byproducts of mental primers in action.
Priming the energetic, physical and mental systems in this fashion, is already being seamlessly integrated into player and team concepts. Synthesizing these three levels of player development before the game helps facilitate greater execution during the game.
A proactive hybrid approach such as this can create openings for players. As players continue to report the benefits of integrated approaches such as these, expect pre-game quick-hitting visualizations, meditations, and energy optimizations to become a valued and common component of pre-game player development.
High-Performance Mindfulness: Mental Performance Consultant Dr. Rainer Meisterjahn
Jake Rauchbach and Dr. Rainer Meisterjahn dive into the NBA’s Mental Performance Space.
Dr. Rainer J. Meisterjahn is a Mental Performance Consultant and the Founder & Owner of Courtex Performance. Rainer and Courtex Performance provide basketball mental performance training, personality evaluation and professional development services for players, coaches and organizations from the youth to the international pro and NBA levels with the goal of empowering clients to maximize performance.
Rainer has worked as a consultant for multiple NBA organizations, particularly in the area of mental player evaluation, as well as in a mental training capacity. As a draft consultant, in collaboration with Courtex Director of Analytics, Dr. Dave Laughlin, Rainer has developed NBA Pre-Draft interview guides, tracked player behavior, conducted interviews, administered and interpreted mental assessments and broken down observations for the front office
Dr. Meisterjahn has made great traction at the NBA level within the Mental Performance space. He has consulted for teams such as the Miami Heat, Utah Jazz and the Milwaukee Bucks. Other clients include FIBA and NCAA Division-I, II and III teams and coaches. He has also spent time with the German Youth National Team players and German BBL teams, such as s.Oliver Würzburg Basketball Club. Working with players such as Philadelphia 76ers forward Tobias Harris, Rainer is quickly establishing himself as a leader within the Mental Performance space.
Basketball Insiders caught up with Dr. Rainer to pick his brain about the Courtex Performance LLC philosophy and to get his take on burgeoning mental performance space.
Jake Rauchbach: What’s up Dr. Rainer? Thanks for taking the time. Can you talk about your Courtex Performance’s philosophy on mental performance training?
Rainer Meisterjahn: Our philosophy is about three things. Firstly, mental training needs to be personalized to the individual – which means there is no cookie-cutter approach. You must understand the personality of the individual: What are their values? What are their motives? What are their goals?
The second part is that it has to be systematic. There has to be an ongoing systematic approach to it. There has to be regularity to it. We do a lot of stuff around developing the core values that are important to the individual and looking at what those core values look like in action, behaviorally on the court. We have players rate themselves. We have coaches provide ratings. In that context, we teach pre-game visualization, in-game focus cues and other techniques to help players regulate their focus in productive ways.
Thirdly, mental training really needs to take into account environmental factors. What is the culture of an organization? What’s the player’s role and what is their relationship with others that he or she deals with on a regular basis? This is really how we look at it.
JR: What’s your way of building rapport with players?
RM: Starting out it’s always about finding common ground, especially with players I may have nothing in common with on the surface. We may look different, we come from different places, and we are different ages. I am just always looking for the one thing that might connect you. Sometimes that’s a personality trait. Maybe the player is a little bit more of an introvert like I am, as well, and actually might appreciate when I take the time to chat one-on-one and get them away from the crowd.
In other cases, maybe you just kick it with a player over a mutual love for sneakers or music or whatever the case may be. Also, oftentimes approaching players from the perspective of wanting to utilize them as an expert, I think that really helps. Instead of coming at a player like you’re trying to fix him, you utilize him as an expert. All players have some expertise that can help a younger teammate, for instance. So you try to be as much of a learner as you are a teacher in the context of building rapport.
JR: How do you see this field progressing over the next 10 years?
RM: The big analytics wave started maybe about 10-12 years ago, and then maybe, about 5-6 years ago you had a pretty significant sports science movement to where organizations have started to build out more extensive sports science departments that are a couple steps up from that old school model of just having one or two athletic trainers on staff. I think mental health and mental training are both up and coming right now. I think that the NBA organizations, probably in some cases, are a little bit confused as to what’s what, and how those two things (mental health and mental performance) coexist.
It’s exciting that I think the NBA is starting to recognize the role of mental health a lot more and they’re acknowledging it and putting in place professionals to take charge of those efforts. The mental performance piece – I think it is still somewhat exploratory for a lot of organizations. I know, my guy Dan Kalkstein has been with the Mavericks going on 20 years or so. I do think it is getting to that point that most organizations are going to start to bring in at least one consultant.
I think within the next 5-10 years, we are going to start looking at mental training departments. I think that is where the future is at. There are just too many opportunities, and there is just too much need within organizations to just simply have one person there.
Mental training can be done at the team level and it can be done at the individual athlete level, and it should be. You need mental training and leadership development within the coaching staff. Beyond that, you look at the front office. You look at the organization as a whole, the staff and the employees. You know most people are being overworked and they’re stressed and they have no tools and skills to deal with everything that is coming at them. You have the G League, which really should be about development not just from the neck down, but also from the neck-up as well. Now you have E-Sports teams within organizations, which is another really intriguing angle.
JR: What part do you think analytics departments are going play into validating Mental Performance?
RM: I think there is a lot that can be done in terms of tracking and analyzing player body language and working with an analytics department inside an organization to pump out information to educate coaches, and, for players, to set more tangible goals in key areas.
The more that we can show that mental training does make a tangible difference – in terms of not only in-game stats, but also in terms of longevity for a player in the league, things of that nature. Obviously, that stuff is powerful. It does take time to accumulate that type of information….As far as moving our field forward, I would agree that the more we can show tangible differences that we are able to make, I think that is really crucial.
JR: What are the differences in how a league like the German BBL and the NBA incorporate the mental performance coach?
RM: With the team in Würzburg, I have had the luxury of working with a head coach in Denis Wucherer, who gives me the opportunity to work with players as a group, developing our cores values, our identity. Being on the court, working one-on-one with players – rebounding, passing – and building trust – being around the guys, showing that I am a basketball guy first and foremost and not a shrink. It’s been exciting to able to work like that.
NBA organizations are much more complex. You have a lot more people involved from front office people, coaches to performance staff. It is a little bit more complex, so sometimes it’s not as easy to get as much access as a club like Würzburg has given me. At times that is probably necessary, but overall it limits what we are able to do a little bit. The more an organization develops trust in you to do it your way, that’s really where it’s at. You got to get in there and you got to be able to do the work. You can’t be a bystander.
Rainer made several big-time points. Firstly, mental performance is best employed through a customized, systematic process that factors in environmental elements. There is a big difference between mental health and mental performance.
Currently, there is a substantial need at the player, team, coaching staff and decision-maker level for mental performance resources that can provide effective High-Performance training. Analytics departments provide an opportunity to help validate tangible outcomes in mental performance and player behavior. German BBL teams seem to understand how to effectively employ the mental performance resource as a part of the greater coaching staff.
Lastly, just like the analytics and sports science waves, mental performance could be poised as the next major departmental build-out at the NBA level.
Minnesota Timberwolves 2019-20 NBA Season Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves have new leadership but are bringing back functionally the same roster that missed the playoffs last year by 12 games. Can the Wolves improve enough internally to make the postseason or will the Wolves become sellers at the trade deadline? Basketball Insiders takes a look at the Minnesota Timberwolves in this 2019-20 NBA Season Preview.
After another up and down season, the Timberwolves find themselves looking at a defining season in 2019-20. There is new leadership in place that is not tied to anyone on the roster, and all of the contracts and commitments made came from the previous regime, which means everyone starts with a clean slate.
That said, the clock is ticking on All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns, who is entering the first season of his 5-year, $190 million extension signed in 2018. Modern NBA history says All-Stars won’t stay committed long if they don’t have a chance to win and win big, which put the pressure squarely on the new front office to turn the ship.
To say this is an important season for the future of the Wolves is an understatement.
The Wolves missed the playoffs last year by 12 games and are returning functionally the same roster, which means if things are going to change its going to have to come from internal growth or a mid-season trade. The outcome of the first half of the season could answer that question either way. The Wolves have solid players, the question is can they put it together?
Let’s take a look at the Minnesota Timberwolves in this 2019-20 NBA Season Preview.
FIVE GUYS THINK…
The Timberwolves are in serious need of a second star. Karl Anthony-Towns should continue to be productive, but even he needs to continue to develop – mostly on the defensive end of the floor. They were pleasantly surprised last season with the play and motor of Josh Okogie, who will be relied on even more so this season. Rookie Jarrett Culver projects to be a strong two-way player with a versatile offensive game – he should be another positive for the Wolves. And there is good depth in Noah Vonleh, Jeff Teague, Robert Covington and Keita Bates-Diop. But the lack of efficiency and effort from Andrew Wiggins has hurt the T-Wolves developmental trajectory. As has been the case for a number of years now, if he improves his three-point shooting, shot selection, and defense, the Wolves have the potential to be a very different team. As currently constructed, they’re going to struggle to keep up with the best in the West.
4th Place – Northwest Division
– Drew Maresca
We’re entering another year with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins as the focal points of the Wolves. Are there more expectations or less? Jimmy Butler is not around anymore, nor is Tom Thibodeau. Ryan Saunders is taking over and following in his late, great father’s footsteps. Can the 33-year-old continue to galvanize this underperforming franchise and turn it into a contender? Stocked with a plethora of forwards, the roster could make it difficult to do so this season. But with a mixture of veteran talent and interesting prospects, there might be a culture shift in Minnesota – and it will prove to be the mark of a new era. As a part of one of the toughest divisions in the NBA, it’s hard to see this team playing in the postseason, though.
4th Place – Northwest Division
– Spencer Davies
The Timberwolves have one incredibly good thing going for them, and that’s Karl-Anthony Towns. He is a superstar and, luckily for the Wolves, they have him locked in for the next several years. After him though, the rest of the team is kind of a question mark. Robert Covington emerged as arguably the second-best player on the team, but his season was cut short due to injury. They lost some of their bench depth in Tyus Jones and Taj Gibson, and they’re looking to Jordan Bell and Shabazz Napier to fill those roles. What they really need though is Andrew Wiggins to play like the max contract guy the Wolves believed they had. He was once thought to be a budding star, but he’s been wildly inconsistent to say the least. If he plays as he should, maybe the Wolves challenge for the eighth seed. If not, look for another lottery finish.
4th Place – Northwest Division
– David Yapkowitz
Things have to turn for the Timberwolves right? There is simply too much talent in Minnesota for them to be a team that’s outside the playoff picture. New team president Gersson Rosas resisted the temptation to blow things up in Minnesota, and beyond some minor changes, the bulk of last year’s team is coming back, as is Ryan Saunders at head coach. That could either make this the beginning of the end, or the turning point for the youth on the roster. There is little doubt Karl-Anthony Towns is the franchise cornerstone, but if Andrew Wiggins doesn’t step up on a night to night basis, he could be gone by the trade deadline and that could start a tidal wave of changes. The Wolves have the talent to be a playoff team, the question is can they be consistent and healthy enough to cement themselves in the 7-8 seed discussion?
4th Place – Northwest Division
– Steve Kyler
It’s a bit difficult to assess the Minnesota Timberwolves’ offseason. I like a lot of the smaller moves Minnesota made but I think the team may have missed the mark on what could end up being the biggest move of its offseason. I liked that Minnesota traded Dario Saric and the rights to Cameron Johnson (11th) to the Phoenix Suns for the sixth overall pick in this year’s draft. However, rather than addressing the team’s point guard situation by drafting Coby White, Minnesota drafted Jarrett Culver. Culver is a talented player, but White is the better prospect in my opinion and could have been the long-term solution for a major area of need for this team. Having said that, I like that the team locked in Ryan Saunders at head coach, signed Noah Vonleh to a $2 million contract, signed Jordan Bell to a minimum contract (notably Bell will again be a restricted free agent after this upcoming season), acquired Shabazz Napier ($1,845,301 guaranteed for 2019-20), and claimed Tyrone Wallace off of waivers. Minnesota has an expensive roster, so adding talent on the margins at little cost is a nice outcome for this offseason. The team still has some foundational issues in terms of its overall roster balance but Minnesota showed some savviness this offseason.
5th Place – Northwest Division
– Jesse Blancarte
FROM THE CAP GUY
The Wolves have new management with president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas, which could lead to roster turnover, though the $122.2 million still owed to Anthony Wiggins isn’t exactly a liquid contract. The team has 15 guaranteed players, which means one would have to go for Ty Wallace and his non-guaranteed deal to stick.
The Wolves still have their $3.6 million Bi-Annual Exception and almost $5 million of the Mid-Level Exception. By acquiring Jake Layman via sign and trade from the Portland Trail Blazers, Minnesota is locked into a hard cap of $138.9 million, but they’re not close to that figure, at least $6.3 million under the $132.6 million luxury tax line.
Before November, the team needs to pick up its option on Josh Okogie.
– Eric Pincus
TOP OF THE LIST
Top Offensive Player: Karl-Anthony Towns
The Timberwolves’ fortunes start and end with Towns, particularly on the offensive end. His blend of size, agility and shooting touch is unrivaled in the NBA, even in the age of the unicorn. As Minnesota’s best three-point shooter (40.0 percent last season on 4.6 attempts per game), most-efficient scorer (57.2 effective field goal percentage last season) and even best free-throw shooter (83.6 percent last season), not to mention its best post player, Towns represents the most effective option at every level of the offensive attack.
With Derrick Rose and his 14.8 shot attempts per game now in Detroit, Towns’ workload should only increase. When Jimmy Butler arrived in 2017, Towns’ attempts per game fell from 18.0 the year before to 14.3. Last year’s uptick to 17.1 represented him picking up a share of Butler’s work, but it did not entirely compensate for what had been a trend line toward prolific offensive numbers. Approaching 20 shots per game would put Towns in the category of ball-handlers like Devin Booker (19.6 last season), Steph Curry (19.4) and Damian Lillard (19.2), but that is appropriate for a seven-footer who has handles enough to comfortably drive on other post players.
For that matter, there is hardly a bad shot for a player with Towns’ skillset. He scored 1.19 points per roll, 1.10 per spot-up and 1.02 per post-up last season, according to NBA.com.
Top Defensive Player: Robert Covington
Covington is a bit of an unknown commodity to Timberwolves’ fans, playing in only 22 games after he was traded from the Philadelphia 76ers. He is a complete unknown in a Ryan Saunders system, not taking the court at all under Minnesota’s then-interim, now-permanent head coach due to a bone bruise that led to loose bodies in his knee.
Covington made his reputation in Philadelphia as a 3-and-D specialist, but even when his three-point percentage waned to 33.3 in 2016-17, his defensive aptitude justified the 6-foot-9 wing’s playing time. He can defend every position on the floor and should be the fulcrum to Saunders’ defensive schemes, if once again healthy.
Top Playmaker: Jeff Teague
Partly by default as the only true point guard in what figures to be the Timberwolves’ top-eight players, Teague is the only genuine ball distributor on Minnesota’s roster. Acquiring Shabazz Napier from the Golden State Warriors put a nominal backup on the roster, but he has yet to average more than 2.6 assists per game in his four seasons.
This is a precarious position for the Timberwolves, particularly coming off the first season in his 10-year career in which Teague did not play at least 66 games, battling a litany of lower-body ailments to appear in only 42. Teague’s patient dribble and aptitude in the pick-and-roll game are ideal to fit with Towns. He may not be more than a league-average point guard, but he is a steady one and averaged 8.2 assists per game last year. Now, the Wolves need Teague more than ever.
Top Clutch Player: Karl-Anthony Towns
This may be another by default designation simply due to Towns’ offensive repertoire. Teague would rather move the ball than shoot more often than not, and Andrew Wiggins’ inefficient tendencies are exacerbated in pivotal situations. Towns, meanwhile, can score from any point on the court.
That Wiggins-Towns contrast has never been more on display than it was at the end of a January overtime against the Memphis Grizzlies. After Wiggins missed a long two from the top of the key, Towns snagged the rebound over Marc Gasol and then let loose a buzzer-beating fadeaway baseline jumper over Gasol, hitting nothing but net for the win. Those rebounding abilities — Towns averaged 12.4 per game last year — make him a constant threat for putbacks in clutch moments, as well.
The Unheralded Player: Josh Okogie
The No. 20 pick in the 2018 draft, Okogie earned notice from last season’s outset for his persistent defense and all-around hustle. He repeatedly wowed crowds with steals only to lose the ball in a chaotic drive to the bucket. Minutes later, Okogie would again flash his athleticism with a highlight reel dunk.
That was the general limit to his contributions, more intangible than anything else. Yet those intangibles earned Okogie 52 starts on a team racked by injuries and drama. The under-the-radar draft pick could have been in over his head, but instead earned the trust of his teammates and both coaching staffs. Yes, even Tom Thibodeau was willing to play this rookie, beginning with the third game of the season.
Okogie has spent the last month leading the Nigerian national team in the FIBA World Cup, averaging 12.6 points per game. More notably, he hit 42.1 percent of his 3-point attempts, which would be a significant jump from his 27.9 percent from beyond the arc in his first NBA action.
Best New Addition: Jarrett Culver
The piece acquired for the No. 11 pick and Dario Šarić will forever be seen as the first move from new Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations Gersson Rosas. Even without that mantle, expectations would be large for Culver. Minnesota did not intend to have a high lottery pick for a long time after selecting Wiggins and Towns No. 1 overall in back-to-back drafts. Culver restores that belief moving forward.
The 6-foot-7 wing was known for his defense at Texas Tech, eventually developing a scorer’s mentality when it mattered most. That mentality did not inherently include efficiency, as Culver went 5-of-22 in the national championship game. The Timberwolves want his defense right now and will be content to let the rest of his game progress in time.
Not to put too much pressure on a rookie, as if the Rosas burden has not already done so, but Minnesota finished No. 24 in defensive rating last season, and Culver is pegged to be the best defender added to the roster. If that ranking improves, he may get much of the credit, but if it doesn’t, the offensive loss of Šarić could become a regret.
– Douglas Farmer
WHO WE LIKE
If any NBA franchise is grateful to have little attention paid to it this fall, it is the Timberwolves. A year ago, infamous practices featured Butler-led bench units embarrassing the supposed stars of the future, buttressing Butler’s berating of Minnesota front office personnel. The chaos undermined whatever credibility Thibodeau still had. The 4-9 start may have actually been better than it should have been, in retrospect.
Barring a complete shock, the Timberwolves will have a quiet preseason camp this time around. Towns has made an offseason point of embracing some of the free agent signees; Wiggins and Covington spent considerable time in Minneapolis over the offseason, compared to the roster going separate ways in 2018; and Saunders has a clear runway as head coach.
2. Outside Influence
Hiring Saunders as the permanent head coach was expected. It would have been hard to fire the son of the franchise’s most-beloved figure after only 42 games, especially as he had to pick up the debris from the Butler fiasco, the Thibdoeau disillusionment and then a rash of injuries.
Contrarily, Minnesota owner Glen Taylor hiring Rosas was unexpected. Taylor has long preferred to stay within the family, so to speak, and considered former Timberwolves players Calvin Booth and Chauncey Billups. Sticking to his norms would have meant bringing in one of them. Instead, Taylor shook things up.
Rosas brings an analytics-driven approach from Houston. His star hunting will be high in both risk and reward, but for a franchise that has rarely appealed to free agents, such innovation and aggression is necessary.
3. Ryan Saunders
Saunders is young, unproven and arguably unqualified, but he is also a crowd favorite, beloved by his roster and willing to adjust to improve. Implementing an up-tempo offense and a switch-heavy defense will be massive deviations from the previous regime, but those should also play into Towns’ strengths and a wing-heavy roster. With Covington, Wiggins, Okogie, Culver and 2018 second-round draft pick Keita Bates-Diop, Saunders will have both flexibility and numbers, concepts Thibodeau avoided wholesale.
He may have been a questionable hire on paper, but Saunders is also not another coaching retread. Minnesota just lived through that cycle. Doing so again would have been a step backward simply by staying put.
4. Noah Vonleh and Jordan Bell
Two of the Timberwolves’ few free agent signings, both Vonleh and Bell should be able to play alongside Towns in Saunders’ system in ways Gorgui Dieng cannot. Neither is a dominant player, but that is not needed when Towns is on the floor. Either Vonleh or Bell should be able to defend a power forward when opponents go big while still being able to run the floor to keep up the pace.
These were minimal signings by Rosas and intentionally so, each on only one-year deals, but they will not compromise Towns and could come to be a solid fit with the superstar.
– Douglas Farmer
Towns might not yet be a top-10 player in the NBA, but he is on the cusp and could offer a dominant season as Minnesota’s unquestioned leader, finally. Any team with such a cornerstone will construct everything around him, and the Timberwolves are no different. The bevy of wings, the malleable big-man free agent signings and even the chosen head coach all accommodate Towns.
In a season stilted by mayhem, Minnesota still finished No. 13 in the league in offensive rating. Steering into Towns in every way possible will only help that figure further. The wings and Vonleh, Bell and Jake Layman should slightly reduce Towns’ defensive workload while not depriving him of offensive opportunities. For a player with his skillset, allowing him every shot attempt he desires is both the prudent and the efficient decision.
– Douglas Farmer
This remains a lengthier list than the previous categories, but it can all trace back to a singular shortcoming. It could be argued the best offensive post-up threat on the roster beyond Towns is Wiggins and his 0.74 points per post-up last season. The secondary ball-handler beyond Teague may also have to be Wiggins.
These concerns all landing on the same slight shoulders underscores the Timberwolves’ tipping point. Wiggins has a max contract, but until he becomes a semblance of a max-contract player, this roster will remain depleted in areas it cannot afford to be if it wants to avoid the cellar of the Western Conference.
A charitable view would claim the year-plus of Butler stagnated Wiggins’ growth even more than it did Towns’. Indeed, Wiggins’ career highs in 3-point percentage, effective field goal percentage and field goal attempts per game all came in 2016-17, the season prior to Butler’s arrival. A return to those levels may not be what Taylor had in mind when he committed years of max-contract space to Wiggins to be Towns’ second-fiddle, but it would be a distinct improvement from last season, nonetheless.
– Douglas Farmer
THE BURNING QUESTION
Can the Timberwolves show enough evidence of long-term potential to keep Towns from forcing his way out sooner than later?
Minnesota will claim playoff aspirations this season, but in the competitive whirlwind that will be the Western Conference, it is an unrealistic hope in 2019-20. If things stay that way, though, the Timberwolves’ situation will quickly become dire. Towns is signed through 2023-24, but in the current era of player empowerment, those contract lengths are mere hiccups to moving along. If Towns voices a desire to contend for the playoffs, a majority of the other 29 franchises will call Rosas to gauge trade possibilities.
Minnesota needs to at least be respectable this season to give Towns reason to believe playoff contention is not far off. Doing so will come as a result of leaning on Towns more than ever until Rosas’ front office can figure out what big deal it inevitably wants to swing.
Towns is capable of such a monster season so as to keep the Timberwolves in vague playoff conversations past the All-Star break, maybe even into May. For now, that kind of individual showcase should placate him. That will give Rosas the time needed to thoroughly understand the mismanaged roster on hand.
– Douglas Farmer