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Phil Jackson’s Carmelo Anthony Conundrum

Are the New York Knicks more or less likely to re-sign Carmelo Anthony now that Phil Jackson is calling the shots?

Tommy Beer

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When he accepted Jim Dolan’s incredibly lucrative offer, Phil Jackson was well aware he’d have to wait roughly 16 months before he could begin re-shaping and upgrading the New York Knicks’ roster. Jackson’s hands are essentially tied until July of 2015 because, regardless of any moves he may make this offseason, New York will be well over the salary cap during the 2014-15 campaign.

The triumvirate of Amar’e Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani and Tyson Chandler will account for $50 million in salary next season, which means it is essentially impossible for Jackson to get under the cap prior to these contracts coming off the books. However, that doesn’t mean Jackson won’t have the opportunity to make an immediate imprint on his new franchise.

A very important decision will be made this upcoming summer. This decision, which will be Jackson’s first major move as an NBA executive, will have enormous short-term and long-term ramifications on the future of this franchise. On July 1, Carmelo Anthony will opt out of his contact and become an unrestricted free agent. What happens in the aftermath of Anthony exercising that option will determine the future trajectory of the Knicks.

Once the hiring of Jackson was officially announced, many Knicks fans were extremely excited. One of the primary reasons for elation among a certain segment of the Knicks faithful was the belief that Jackson’s appointment greatly increased the likelihood of Anthony re-signing with New York. These supporters of Knicks and Anthony surmised that the All-Star small forward would feel far more confident committing to the Knicks knowing that the uber-respected Jackson would now be making all basketball-related decisions. The supposition was that ‘Melo would have faith in Jackson’s ability to right the ship, get under the cap and surround Anthony with a strong supporting cast.

However, examining the opposite side of the coin, could the argument also be made that Jackson’s arrival in NYC actually makes it less likely that the Knicks ink Anthony to a massive five-year deal? Is it feasible that Jackson eventually determines this course of action would be best for the long-term prosperity of the franchise?

When Knicks fans discuss his impending free agency, the ‘pros’ for wanting to keep Anthony are obvious. He’s been the organization’s most dynamic player since Patrick Ewing in his prime. This season, despite the Knicks unimaginable struggles, Anthony is playing arguably the best all-around basketball of his career.

In fact, Anthony is on pace to become the first player in over 10 years to average at least 27 points, eight rebounds and three assists per game throughout a full NBA season. He’s also set to become just the fourth player in NBA history to average over 27 points a night while shooting above 45 percent from the floor, 40 percent from the field and 82 percent from the free-throw stripe. The other three members of that incredibly exclusive club are Larry Bird, Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant.

However, although the mere thought seems somewhat counter-intuitive, there is certainly a sound argument to be made against keeping Carmelo. The Knicks will have to weigh these considerable ‘cons’ before handing Anthony a blank check.

First, let’s start with the particulars of what a max contract for Anthony would look like:

In year one of his new deal, his new contract would pay $22.457 million. If they give him the maximum allowable raises, his yearly salaries would be as follows:

2015-16: $24.1 million
2016-17: $25.8 million
2017-18: $27.5 million
2018-19: $29.2 million

How effective and efficient will Anthony be in 2019, at 34 years old, banking $29 million? How many NBA forwards would Anthony be able to even stay in front of at that stage of his career? Well, considering he’d be taking up such a large percentage of the Knicks’ cap, he’d better be incredible.

Back in February, Anthony intimated he would be willing to take less than the max. The question is: how much less? It’s rare to see an athlete accept significantly less than what he feels he is worth. What salary would Anthony have to agree to in order for the deal to make fiscal sense for the Knicks?

Remember, the Knicks looked liked geniuses over the first few months of the Amar’e Stoudemire deal, when STAT was playing like a legit MVP candidate (he averaged 26.1 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game over the first half of the 2010-11 season). However, over these last couple of years, injuries relegated Stoudemire to a shell of his former self, and his onerous contract became an albatross.

It is also important to consider the Knicks’ performance this season. Again, New York’s awful record certainly shouldn’t be pinned directly on Anthony, but the fact remains: they will finish the 2013-14 season at least eight games under .500 and on the outside of the playoff picture in a horrid Eastern Conference. This despite the fact that ‘Melo is in his prime, playing at an extremely high level and stayed relatively healthy for the majority of the season. What happens when Father Time begins to catch up with Carmelo?

It’s clear the burden of carrying the Knicks this season has weighed heavily on Anthony. Head coach Mike Woodson, desperate to save his job, has ridden Anthony relentlessly. ‘Melo currently leads the NBA in minutes played, averaging 39 minutes a night. And it’s not solely the sheer volume of minutes that’s distressing; the Knicks also lean forcefully on Anthony whenever he’s on the floor. He’s the focal point of their offense attack on nearly every trip into the offensive end, and he’s also been forced to guard bigger and stronger power forwards on a nightly basis.

How will Anthony’s aging body respond to this excessive wear-and-tear? This a question Jackson has to ask himself this summer.

Consider this: Anthony is on pace to become just the second player since 2010 to log over 3,000 minutes in one season after turning 29 years old. The only other player to have matched that feat is Kobe Bryant, who played over 3,000 minutes in 2012-13. (As we know, Bryant tore his Achilles in April of 2013 and managed to play a total of just six games in 2013-14 before a knee injury ended his season).

As noted above, the Knicks are cap-strapped, which means next year’s roster will likely look eerily similar to this season’s. Thus, Anthony, if re-signed, will again have to shoulder a significant load for another whole year, months before Jackson can bring in much-needed reinforcements.

Which brings us to another relevant point: If the Knicks are going to commit to expeditiously tearing this team down and rebuilding the right way, next year is the ideal time to bottom out because the Knicks actually own the rights to their first-round pick in the 2015 draft. For a franchise that has traded away a majority of their picks for a better part of a decade, this is not an insignificant detail.

Without Anthony, the Knicks would effectively have to sacrifice a season, but they could take solace in the fact that they would enter that summer of 2015 armed with a likely lottery pick and loads of cap space to lavish on a potentially terrific free agent crop.

Under this scenario, the Knickerbockers would enter July of 2015 as major players in the free-agent market, when such stars as Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Marc Gasol, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, Tony Parker, Goran Dragic, Roy Hibbert, DeAndre Jordan (and possibly LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh), may be up for grabs as unrestricted free agents. If Anthony is not on the hook for $20+ million, New York could be looking at upwards of $45 million in cap space, which would allow them to go on quite the shopping spree.

And this is where the presence of Phil Jackson makes things that much more interesting. Prior to Jackson’s arrival, extreme trepidation toward trusting the Knicks’ front office to successfully navigate free agent waters was understandable. However, with Jackson calling the shots (instead of Dolan or CAA, etc.), the chances of the Knicks completely striking out in free agency are greatly decreased, as NYC is a far more desirable location for prospective players now that Jackson is the new face of the franchise.

A common counterargument from the “keep Carmelo at all costs” camp is that free agency is too much of a crapshoot and it’s unlikely that New York would be able to reel in a player on par with Anthony no matter how far below the cap they get.

Well, the fact of the matter is that the Knicks would not necessarily have to sign a player better than Anthony in order for them to improve their overall roster. With mountains of cap space, the Knicks could construct a “team” that was far more balanced and not reliant on a single scorer.

If the free agent class of 2015 is star-studded, and the Knicks had more cap space than any team in the NBA, what kind of team could Jackson put together? The opportunity to play in New York City for a team run by one of the most respected minds in all of basketball would be an intriguing combination for prospective free agents.

Clearing and preserving cap space by letting Anthony walk is an inherently risky proposition, but if you have a competent front office in place (not a maverick owner masquerading as a GM), that cap space could actually be considered more valuable. In other words, if the idea of not re-signing Anthony made sense a few months ago, does it make more sense now?

Even if Anthony gave the Knicks a hometown discount and signed for “only” $110 million (roughly $20 million less the max), would that be the most efficient allocation of funds? For argument’s sake, which would be the better investment: Committing to pay a player such as Kevin Love $18 million per season in his mid-20s or paying Anthony $21 million at age 32?

Or what about a spending the money earmarked for Anthony on the combination of Goran Dragic, Marc Gasol and Danny Green?

Is it possible Jackson is attracted to the idea of starting with a blank canvas? If he keeps Anthony in the fold, his options are relatively limited, as the roster would have to be constructed with Anthony as the centerpiece.

All that said, it remains unknown if this nuclear option of letting Anthony walk is even a possibility. We know Dolan (who moved heaven and earth to bring Anthony to New York) would certainly prefer keep Carmelo, as losing him would obviously hurt ticket sales and TV ratings next season. Does Jackson have the true autonomy he was promised when Dolan hired him? Dolan has said yes, even when asked specifically if Jackson had the power to let Anthony walk. But saying that and allowing it are two different things.

If Jackson did decide to part ways with Anthony, he would face immediate challenges on a few fronts. Firstly, from a public relations standpoint, Jackson would have to assuage the concerns of fans angry at the organization for failing to retain their best player, and fans depressed at the idea of watching a non-competitive product next season.

Furthermore, if ‘Melo did decide to leave, would Jackson be able to secure a sign-and-trade? If so, what kind of return could he derive?

This situation could resolve itself in any number of ways. There are far more questions than answers at this point. The only thing that seems certain is that it will be incredibly fascinating to watch it all play out.

Tommy Beer is a Senior NBA Analyst and the Fantasy Sports Editor of Basketball Insiders, having covered the NBA for the last nine seasons.

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NBA AM: Pacers Got Some Much Needed Tough Love

After a rocky start, Thaddeus Young spoke up, and it may have helped the Pacers find their identity.

Steve Kyler

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A Little Tough Love

Indiana Pacers forward Thaddeus Young isn’t known as a vocal leader, in fact, his reputation is that he’s usually the most even-keeled guy in the room. However, after the Pacers were blown out by the Detroit Pistons in early November, the normally reserved Young was anything but that.

“When we lost, I think, we lost at the first Detroit game. I came in, and I spoke to the team, and I was a little out of character because I was yelling,” Young told Basketball Insiders. “It got through to those guys, and we understood what we had to do to go out there and win games.

“I made it clear that if we don’t move the ball, if we don’t do it by committee, if we don’t defend and guard the paint, it’s going to be a long season. It’s going to be one of those seasons where it’s going to be tough on everybody, and we don’t want that.”

The Pacers seemed to turn a corner after that moment. A sense of purpose was introduced to the team—a team that has so many new faces playing so many new roles. It also brought the team together.

“We love being around each other,” Young explained. “We’re doing it as a family, and we’re committed to winning games as a whole, not as one person. When I came in and got on those guys, it was out of the love for the game, the passion for the game, the passion for this team and understanding where we can go as a team.”

The Pacers have lost one game since Young spoke his mind.

Young, who is playing in his 11th NBA season, sees something special in this year’s version of the Pacers—a team many predicted would be rebuilding, but one that enters play on November 21 two games above .500 and setting the tone as much on defense.

“Defensively we’re coming along,” Young admitted. “We’re starting to lock in a little bit more on the defensive side of the basketball. Offensively, it’s there.

“We know what we have to do to win games, which is move the basketball, execute, and do it by committee. Defensively if we do it by committee each and every night, defensively we’ll be definitely a tough team to beat. Especially going into the later part of the season.”

Young has always been something of an all-purpose player who understands that on this team, he has to be part of the defensively solution.

“I have tough matchups each and every night,” Young said. “I’m switching on guys; that’s point guards or centers or just all different positions. I have to be able to do those different things, and for me, I take pride in my defense each and every night. Going out there and executing on the defensive end because the offense is going to come. I don’t really worry too much about offense. I’ve been in the league long enough to know how I’m going to score the basketball and what I’m going to be able to do, but it’s ‘Can you get stops on the defensive end?’ which is going to win games for us.”

While most would see a 10-8 record as a positive thing, Young and the Pacers know they have to get better at the little things to be the team they want to be.

“We feel like we should be better and we’re continuing to get better as a team,” Young said. “We continue practicing, playing, and going out there and executing in games. We’re getting better as a team. We can’t have stretches like that where we lost four games in a row or a couple of games in a row. We have to try to bounce back from one loss and try to get to the next game. So far, we’ve been doing a good job. We’ve just been playing. Like I said, we’re executing and having fun playing with each other.”

Young smiled when explained why he felt that he had to get on his teammates.

“Some guys could have been like ‘forget what he’s talking about,’ but everybody was on the same page,” Young explained. “Everybody understood exactly where I was coming from. Besides the fact when I get mad, they know something’s wrong. I’m pretty laid back and chill, so when I do get mad, and I do get upset, it’s something that has to change.”

The Pacers seem to have found their way, and maybe a little tough love from an unexpected place was all that was needed.

As things stand today, the Pacers are the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. Their next stretch of games includes home contests against Toronto, Boston, and Orlando before finishing November on the road in Houston.

Time will tell if the Pacers are as good as they seem to be, but there is no questioning that they are playing some pretty inspired basketball.

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NBA PM: Clippers In A Hole, Hoping For Spark From Beverley

The Clippers are in an early season free-fall and are hoping Patrick Beverley can help get them back on track.

James Blancarte

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The Los Angeles Clippers came into the season with the intention of turning the departure of Chris Paul into a positive. His departure led to the team netting the small forward it had always lacked in Danilo Gallinari, a replacement point guard in Patrick Beverley and a number of other new faces. With the massive turnover in key players, the hope would be that the Clippers would take this new mix of players and build around the franchise centerpiece, Blake Griffin, and thrive in a new era of Clippers basketball.

For now, at least, those offseason hopes have been dashed. The team is in the midst of a horrid skid where they have lost their last eight games and 10 of their last 11 going back to October 28. After losing the first two games, the team is playing their third of a five-game road trip tonight against the New York Knicks. When the team returns, they will host the Los Angeles Lakers who have been playing well as of late. Although the season is still young, the team is currently 13th in the Western Conference, nestled between the Phoenix Suns and the Sacramento Kings, and behind the Lakers. Not good company to have if your goal is to make the playoffs.

The team is coming off of an overtime loss to the Cavaliers in Cleveland and a 102-87 loss to the Charlotte Hornets that had been closer than the final score indicates. Yet, Head Coach Doc Rivers didn’t mince his words when judging the team’s performance against the Hornets.

“Overall this is a tough stretch to go through,” Rivers stated. “I thought we were selfish as far as moving the ball and playing together.”

Rivers didn’t hold back and made it clear how unhappy he was with the team’s effort.

“This was the first game that I wasn’t happy as a coach,” Rivers stated. “I can take losing even poorly if we play right. I just didn’t think we played right tonight.”

Coach Rivers is frustrated and with good reason. Only Griffin and bench sparkplug Lou Williams made their mark on offense with 19 and 25 points, respectively. DeAndre Jordan was the only other Clipper to register in double digits with 10 points.

Offense overall isn’t exactly the issue for the Clippers. Per nba.com, the Clippers’ offensive rating is 105.9, good for 10th in the league. However, the team’s assist percentage is 28th in the league at 51 percent, echoing Coach Rivers’ concern regarding selfish play. Look no further for proof than Jordan, whose shooting percentages have dropped from 71.4 percent to 64 percent, his worst shooting since the 2012-2013 season. Jordan depends on others to create for him through lobs, pick and roll finishes, dump offs and opportunistic put backs.

Injuries have helped to create and magnify many of the individual issues the team faces. In fact, all of the key players that have been missing from the Clippers rotation are capable playmakers and passers that can help to create a more fluid offense. Unfortunately, there is no clear timetable indicating when Gallinari and Euro passing sensation Milos Teodosic (only two games played) are set to return. Help is on the way with the Beverley set to return to the lineup tonight against the Knicks after missing the last five games.

On offense, Beverley is averaging 12.5 points, three assists and 3.9 rebounds. These are acceptable statistics that only partially indicate his worth to the team. Beverley had had success taking (5.3) and making (2.1) three-point shots at nearly a 40 percent clip (39.6). Beverley does a good job of creating space off the ball, allowing Griffin to be a scorer and a facilitator. In addition, Beverley has had success driving to the rim, where he is shooting 59.3 percent (0-3 feet from the rim), he can score, run pick and roll with Jordan or kick the ball out and keep the offense moving from side to side.

Coach Rivers made his view of Beverley’s value relative to their recent poor play abundantly clear.

“We get Patrick [Beverley] back Monday night,” Rivers stated. “[We can] start playing the right way, we will be all right.”

Beverley had been developing chemistry as a complement to everything the team does on defense as well as offense. Beverley has taken his aggressive defense to the Clippers and by doing so had taken up a shared role as a lead defensive weapon alongside Jordan. The team could use the help on defense where, over the last 11 games, they sport the worst defensive rating (111.3) in the NBA.

Having Beverley’s balance of defense and offense should be a boost to the team. The Clippers have earned a reputation over the years for sniping at the refs and getting flustered when things don’t go their way, which has bubbled up in their recent losing skid. Beverley helps with the intangibles as well including effort and hustle, which may help offset the team’s penchant for complaining.

Another benefit will be the ability of the team to re-insert Beverley back into the starting line-up and place guard Austin Rivers back on the bench. Rivers can be a productive player who brings a scoring punch against opposing second units while being available as a small ball small forward when necessary. Rivers can also be a pest on defense when focused. However, injuries have forced Rivers into the starting line-up where he has been less effective.

In an exclusive interview with Basketball Insiders, Lou Williams discussed the value of the team’s injured players.

“It’s three starters,” Williams told Basketball Insiders. “One guy’s [Beverley] our heart and soul on the defensive end. We have another guy [Teodosic] who was leading us in assists and we have another guy [Gallinari] who’s second in scoring.”

Whether the return of Beverley alone is enough to halt the team’s recent losing streak is unclear. The team is buried deep in the Western Conference and needs to get back on track sooner rather than later before the team falls too far behind to be competitive. As stated, there is no clear indication as to when the team will get Teodosic or Gallinari back. In addition, Griffin has his own history of injuries, having missed at least 15 games a season over the last four years. This year, the team has so far shown an inability to rise above injuries. The season is young but these are perilous times for the Clippers.

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Williams, Clippers Will Keep Pushing Through

The Clippers veteran guard chats with Spencer Davies in a one-on-one Basketball Insiders exclusive.

Spencer Davies

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For the second straight year, Lou Williams started his basketball season as a resident of California.

Despite being moved by the Los Angeles Lakers at the trade deadline back in February, it wasn’t a long stay for the 31-year-old in Houston. After bolstering the Rockets’ bench in a big way during their playoff stretch, the organization dealt the veteran guard to the LA Clippers, meaning he was going right back to the City of Angels.

Which begs the question—did he even relocate from his old place?

“Yeah, I moved,” Williams told Basketball Insiders in Cleveland on Friday. “But I ended up moving back into the same neighborhood that I was in, so it was all good.”

The familiarity with the area must’ve been comforting, but playing for three different teams in such a short amount of time can’t be easy. It’s only been 15 games, but he already notices a discrepancy between the two that share the same arena.

“Obviously when you have different people running it,” Williams answered when asked to compare the Los Angeles franchises. “I think the Lakers were in a different space than the Clippers are. The Clippers are a more veteran group, so two completely different atmospheres.”

Winning four straight games to kick off the 2017-18 campaign, the year started out great for he and his new team, but it’s gone downhill in a hurry.

The Los Angeles Clippers are hurting in every way. Literally.

Only halfway through a five-city road trip, they’ve lost eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11. Key members of their team are absent and they have been plagued by injuries out of the gate.

First, it was international sensation Milos Teodosic who went down with a foot injury in just the second NBA game of his career. Then there’s Danilo Gallinari, whose ailing hip has kept him out of action for two weeks. To top it all off, Patrick Beverley is dealing with a sore right knee that has forced him to miss over a week as well (he’ll reportedly be active on Monday night).

Without the trio, the Clippers are missing a little bit of everything, and Williams is eager for them to return to the floor because of it.

“It’s three starters,” Williams told Basketball Insiders. “One guy’s our heart and soul on the defensive end. We have another guy who was leading us in assists and we have another guy who’s second in scoring.

“Three very important pieces of our team are missing. But we have other guys that’s stepping in doing the best job that they can. We’re just falling short.”

Aside from their most recent 15-point loss to the equally struggling Charlotte Hornets at the Spectrum Center, Los Angeles has competed and been in almost every game during the long skid.

In Cleveland, they led for most of the way until midway through the fourth quarter. It was a back-and-forth affair when the Cavaliers struck back, and once the game went into overtime, the Clippers went cold and ran out of gas.

Taking out the element of overtime, the “close game, but no win” trend has been apparent as they attempt to get over the hump for a victory. Williams sees his team battling. They’re just not getting the outcomes they desire.

“Just continue to push,” Williams said of how LA can climb the wall. “We’ll have a couple of guys back this week from injuries.

“We’ve been playing extremely hard giving ourselves an opportunity to win these games and just haven’t been able to finish. Get guys back, just continue to push. We’ll break through.”

If Williams keeps on producing the way he has, especially as of late, that could be sooner rather than later. Over the last five games, the scoring assassin has put up over 30 points in two of them and 25 in another. In addition, he’s averaged over four rebounds, four assists, and more than a steal per game during the stretch.

When asked about what’s made him so comfortable, he kept it simple.

“Just playing,” Williams told Basketball Insiders.” Taking what the defense gives me and try to make shots. That’s it.”

Williams is special when it comes to how much he can impact a game in the snap of a finger. Over the course of his career, he’s one of those guys that have been able to just go off at any given moment.

“Just continue to play,” he said. “Play [as] hard as I can. I never really think about it until after the game. I just go out there, play [as] hard as I can. Put myself in position to score points and live with the results.”

You can recall Williams being an elite sixth man in this league for just about every team he’s been a part of. Whether it was with the Philadelphia 76ers, Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, Lakers, Rockets or even with the Clippers now, he’s constantly been a guy to provide a powerful punch off the bench.

With the consistency and the energy he’s provided with second units throughout his career, it’s rather surprising that Williams has only won the Sixth Man of the Year award one time in his career. Having established this reputation, it should only be a matter of time before he’s rewarded again.

That being said, it’s got to be one of his aspirations, right?

“Not anymore,” Williams told Basketball Insiders, admitting he felt slighted in last year’s race. “Nah. Probably had one of the best seasons of my career and finished third, so I don’t really care no more.”

Furthermore, as one of the top sharpshooters the NBA has to offer, he told Basketball Insiders he doesn’t wouldn’t care to participate in the three-point contest, either.

Moving away from the individual side of things, Williams has enjoyed his time with the Clippers for the short time he’s been a part of the franchise.

One good reason is the opportunity to play under one of the league’s most respected head coaches in Doc Rivers, whom he credits has a unique manner of making adjustments.

“Doc is a high basketball IQ coach,” Williams said. “He knows how to break down the game on the fly, which is impressive. A lot of coaches, they make a lot of corrections at halftime or in film sessions. Doc makes them on the fly, which is great.”

Playing alongside two superstars isn’t so bad. DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin are a pairing that can dominate each and every time they step on the floor. In fact, having those two alone should be enough for the Clippers to get things turned back around.

When the frontcourt duo clicks on a nightly basis and the team returns to full strength, Williams believes that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

“It’s been fun,” Williams told Basketball Insiders of the experience with Griffin and Jordan. “Obviously, we would like to win some games and I think that tide is gonna turn once we get back healthy.

“But these two All-Star guys in this league that’s done an exceptional job for this organization—so it’s been a good time being with these guys.”

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