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Potential Position Logjams to Watch

Entering the 2016-17 NBA season, here are some of the position logjams to keep an eye on.

Jabari Davis

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The start of the 2016-17 NBA is just 63 days away, and today we’ll look at some of the rotations that could face roster redundancy issues unless changes are made at some point. As a result of the draft and transactions made by the front office, each of these teams could wind up with the somewhat enviable “problem” of having too much talent at a given position.

Here are some of the rosters with a potential logjam:

The Sacramento Kings’ Full Frontcourt

At a time when most teams are trying to make their roster as fluid and interchangeable as possible while also looking for ways to compete with the rise of small-ball lineups, the Kings went out and drafted two more big men (power forward Skal Labissiere and center Georgios Papagiannis) on the heels of selecting Willie Cauley-Stein just the year before. Oh, and they still have this DeMarcus Cousins guy you may have heard of, not to mention that they signed center Kosta Koufos to a four-year, $33 million contract last July as well. Anthony Tolliver’s addition certainly helps with some frontcourt flexibility, but unless he was signed with the idea of solely being a locker-room presence in mind, he’ll also take some of those frontcourt minutes.

Coach Dave Joerger is set to be the franchise’s seventh head coach since the start of the 2008-09 season, and while vice president of basketball operations and GM Vlade Divac has been adamant that Cousins isn’t going anywhere, you do have to wonder if this might be the season when the organization finally decides it is time to part ways (especially if they aren’t able to maintain some of the relatively positive momentum from last year that led to them winning 33 games for the first time since ‘07-08). With all the bigs on this roster, they are certainly in a position to make such a decision if faced with it.

Milwaukee’s Plethora of Point Guards

The Bucks went 13-17 over their final 30 games of last season, and did so with Giannis Antetokounmpo playing point forward for the bulk of it. Head coach Jason Kidd has said that Antetokounmpo will be the team’s point guard entering next season, despite the fact that they drafted Tyler Ennis with the 11th pick in the 2015 draft, they still have Michael Carter-Williams and they acquired Matthew Dellavedova through a sign-and-trade this summer.

Having multiple guys capable of playing the point guard position isn’t necessarily a problem, but it seems pretty clear the team is not interested in moving forward with Carter-Williams as the team’s floor general.

Like teammate Greg Monroe and potentially a couple others, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Carter-Williams moved at some point prior to next February’s trade deadline.

K.A.T. and the Rest of those Cats

There’s absolutely no question that Karl-Anthony Towns will be the man along Minnesota’s frontline,but  the Timberwolves do have an interesting mix of players at the power forward and center positions. Center Nikola Pekovic is expected to return from Achilles surgery and the team signed big men Jordan Hill and Cole Aldrich this summer. They also have current starting center Gorgui Dieng returning along with three additional power forwards (Nemanja Bjelica, Kevin Garnett and Adreian Payne). Garnett won’t require a great deal of on-court time in order to leave his mark on this roster, but that still leaves an awful lot of frontline players for Coach Tom Thibodeau to find time for.

Rumors continue to swirl around the Timberwolves and potential moves involving some of the perimeter players, but GM Scott Layden is in the favorable position of having a ton of options and hypothetical packages that could be constructed in order to continue reshaping and molding what is already the league’s most intriguing young roster.

Phoenix in Transition, Again?

The Suns have talent on the roster, but not necessarily a mix that appears to make the most sense at this time. Alex Len and Tyson Chandler are obviously centers, but the fact that GM Ryan McDonough took two power forwards in this year’s lottery (Dragan Bender fourth overall and Marquese Chriss eighth overall) leads one to believe that the team sees them as guys who are versatile and interchangeable enough to play alongside one another at some point. At 18 and 19 years old, these two aren’t quite ready to compete from a physical perspective, but the idea of them ultimately playing in the same lineup had to be a consideration.

Another area of concern is the three-headed guard rotation that appears to be forming once again. Didn’t we see what happened when they convinced themselves that the combination of Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas would be fine splitting time and scoring opportunities a couple years back? Bledsoe remains one of the principal characters this time around, but is joined by Brandon Knight and second-year player Devin Booker as the organization’s current backcourt triumvirate. Those are the stars, but the team also has Archie Goodwin, this year’s draft pick Tyler Ulis and the recently signed Leandro Barbosa.

It may be fine to start the year, but if Booker takes the next step in his development as expected, it could only be a matter of time before Phoenix needs to seriously consider moving one of the other two in order to carve out a larger piece of the pie for the younger (and more cap-friendly) player.

Lakers Overfill Frontcourt Void

Perhaps the most glaring hole on a 2015-16 roster full of questionable parts was the Lakers’ starting center position. Beyond all the madness and rotation uncertainty, the Lakers simply didn’t get much positive play from their centers regardless of who former coach Byron Scott put down low. From Roy Hibbert to Tarik Black to Robert Sacre to even undersized Brandon Bass, L.A. struggled to find a viable answer at the position most nights.

After taking Croatian big man Ivica Zubac in the second round of June’s draft, the team then signed veteran center Timofey Mozgov to a four-year contract last month. Recently, L.A. also signed Yi Jianlian and rookie Zach Auguste to deals as well. Tarik Black is also reportedly set to re-sign and young bigs Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. will obviously be back too. While having a ton of frontcourt options is a good thing for Coach Luke Walton, it could also present a bit of a challenge.

There were rumors about the possibility of Randle and Nance Jr. playing alongside one another depending upon the matchup, but the influx of frontcourt talent makes you wonder if that’s still in the cards. Especially when you consider that Luol Deng, while traditionally a small forward, played some of his best basketball as a hybrid or stretch-four in Miami last season out of necessity. Jianlian’s game is versatile enough to play more than just power forward, but the idea of an intriguing project like Zubac finding time to develop in such a seemingly crowded crop of bigs seems a bit more far-fetched than it did when the 18-year-old impressed during Summer League.

Again, as in many of these cases, it isn’t necessarily the worst thing in the world to have a bit of roster redundancy if it presents coaches with the “problem” of finding time for quality players. The Lakers are in the rare position of not having high expectations in 2016-17, so it will be very interesting to see if the front office is actually setting up potential transactions for the future.

*****

None of these teams are necessarily finished products heading into camp next month and while they may not rectify these potential logjam scenarios over the next six weeks, don’t be shocked to see several of them take the steps to balance out their rosters between now and February prior to the trade deadline.

Jabari Davis is a senior NBA Writer and Columnist for Basketball Insiders, covering the Pacific Division and NBA Social Media activity.

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NBA Daily: Kings Starters Show Promise Despite Loss

The end result may be the same as it has been every season in the past decade, but the Sacramento Kings have something brewing for the first time in a long time.

Spencer Davies

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The end result may be the same as it has been every season in the past decade, but the Sacramento Kings have something brewing for the first time in a long time.

Yes, a 25-9 lead was squandered and the game was lost to the Utah Jazz. Marvin Bagley III confusingly played fewer minutes than 14 of his fellow rookies in his NBA debut. They also forced more miscues than they committed, yet were still outscored 24-13 in points off of turnovers.

All of that makes it seem like Wednesday was the start to a long, frustrating season for the Kings, but don’t be so quick to judge. There was a ton of good to come out of the team’s season opener at the Golden 1 Center.

First off, what a night for Willie Cauley-Stein it was. He had the unenviable task of going head-to-head with Rudy Gobert, the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, to begin the fourth season of his career. We know that the 25-year-old isn’t necessarily a go-to scoring option, however, you wouldn’t have figured that to be the case if you watched the game.

Finishing with the third-most attempts for Sacramento, Cauley-Stein wasted no time and went right at Gobert when he touched the ball. Not once did he hesitate to put it on the floor, showing an improved, tighter handle on drives to the basket. Likely coming from film study, the 7-foot, 240-pound center excelled at using his body to get his shots up and over the “Stifle Tower” with great timing.

Cauley-Stein was determined to attack the paint all game long and showed no fear. He scored 19 of his 23 points with Gobert on the floor, including a thunderous alley-oop slam over the Frenchman following a screen-and-roll. To put the significance of this in perspective, his eight field goal makes are more than he’s had in each of the previous three seasons with Utah’s big man on the floor.

The Kings’ starters, in general, were especially solid, as all five players scored in double figures and had their squad’s best plus-minus ratings.

De’Aaron Fox swiped three steals, showed his playmaking skills and shared the love with his teammates, recording seven assists in addition to his 21 points. A candidate for a breakout year, Buddy Hield looked like the most comfortable player on the floor despite some lazy passes early, knocking down his signature off the dribble, mid-range fadeaways with ease.

Nemanja Bjelica used the threat of his outside shot to make his way to the basket for better looks and poured in 18 points. Starting at the wing, Yogi Ferrell held his own defensively against Donovan Mitchell and added a couple of threes to the mix as well.

Sacramento gave a double-digit led game away, but the players never gave in. During the fourth quarter, they got stops but just couldn’t seem to take advantage on the other side. It was the recurring theme of the night. The chances were there in transition. Now, they’ve got to work on completing those sequences and turning them into points.

Kings head coach Dave Joerger played essentially a nine-man rotation and got little out of his bench players. Justin Jackson struggled at the four spot and carved out 30 minutes of playing time in spite of it. Other than that, though, everybody in the second unit was on the floor for less than 17 minutes. It’s likely because of how well the starters performed, but they’ll need more out of those guys eventually.

There’s already a topic of discussion on the front of development vs. wins in Sacramento. Joerger’s addressed the matter with Bagley after the game and said it’s going to be hard to allocate minutes for a roster heavy with big men.

The counter-argument to that is simple—he’s the second overall pick of the draft. You have to find time for him, period. There should be no excuse not to regardless of who’s on the team. Don’t forget about Bagley being so talented that he re-classified to play with an age group above his own and still dominated as the ACC Player of the Year at Duke. He was a true freshman!

Aside from that whole debate, the Kings did not roll over and quit when they blew a 16-point lead and trailed by 14 soon after. In a game of runs, their young group hung in there and battled until the clock hit zero. Keep in mind this is a ballclub short of last year’s starting shooting guard still, too.

There may not be a whole lot of winning to come by in Sacramento—what with competing in the Pacific Division and Western Conference—but the season could be easier on the eyes if this is the type of effort they’re going to give on a nightly basis. Of course, we’ve got to be careful here since it’s only one game.

Even so, consider this writer in on “Kings SZN.”

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NBA Daily: Offseason Acquisitions Making An Early Impact

Basketball Insiders takes a look at five players on new teams who had a big impact in their respective season openers.

Drew Maresca

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Starting a new job is hard: new co-workers, new processes, new expectations, etc. Most of us have done it, and we can attest that it’s challenging on both a personal and professional level. It’s no different in the NBA. Sure, there is greater familiarity amongst players than for, say, a software engineer jumping from Facebook to Google, but the stakes are also higher. Most people are cut some slack initially due to a lack of familiarity, but not in the NBA. Players are expected to hit the ground running, and are judged harshly for getting off to slow starts. 

Even still, some players are simply so skilled that their impact is immediately obvious. With that being said, let’s analyze the top five debuts of players who changed teams this past offseason. 

  1. Kawhi Leonard — His post-game comments may have been understated Wednesday night, but his on-court performance was not. Leonard received an incredible amount of support from the Raptors crowd, and he did not disappoint. He posted 24 points and 12 rebounds and was +13 for the game. His offensive arsenal was on full display; he demonstrated his athleticism on dunks, his shooting prowess and range and his willingness to do some dirty work on the glass. No surprises here, but it is encouraging that he came back from the quad injury and looked mostly unchanged. Bonus points to Kyle Lowry for going the extra mile to get Leonard the ball (e.g., passing on an easy transition layup to feed Leonard). 
  1. DeMar DeRozan — While Kawhi did his normal thing, DeRozan may have had his foot on the gas a bit more — or maybe his performance was more a result of greater necessity. Either way, DeRozan delivered. He scored 28 points on 7 for 11 shooting, with four rebounds and four assists in 38 minutes. Similar to Leonard, no one should be surprised by DeRozan’s debut, especially given how upset he was initially with the trade. It’s even less surprising when you consider that he transitioned to playing for Coach Gregg Popovich, whose system is tried and true. If he keeps this up and all goes well for San Antonio, it could re-ignite questions about the Leonard-Popovich-Spurs snafu that resulted in the trade in the first place. 
  1. New New Orleans Pelicans (Julius Rande and Elfrid Payton – tie) — While Anthony Davis continues to be the main story line for the Pelicans, both free agents signings made their mark in the team’s season opener. Payton did so by posting a triple double in his first outing, demonstrating the versatility and promise that led the Pelicans to sign him in the first place; he notched 10 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds in route to an impressive +23. Randle’s performance was probably a bit flashier, but maybe less impactful on the whole. Nevertheless, Randle proved his worth in his first game with the team, finishing with an impressive 25 points on an efficient 9 for 15. He also chipped in eight rebounds and showed his versatility, leading fast breaks and dishing three assists. Concerns over the Pelicans may have been a bit overblown — but that might have more to do with Davis’ impact than the supporting cast. Time will tell.
  1. Brook Lopez — How did the perception of a former top-tier center slip so far so quickly? Just 17 months ago, Lopez was wrapping up another typical Brook Lopez-esque season: 20.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks per game. Sure, the league has passed by centers who can’t extend the defense and switch onto guards in the pick and roll, but Lopez introduced an effective three-point shot in 2016-17, shooting .34.6 percent from deep. And yet, one year on the Lakers bench was all it took for the league to begin to overlook and/or underrate Lopez. That was a mistake. Lopez seems to be the same player he’s always been. He’s no longer a go-to option, so his scoring will likely be down from his 17.8 points per game career average; but he will contribute on offense and block some shots on defense. In his first game with the Bucks — with whom he signed for the bargain salary of $3.4 million — he scored 14 points and grabbed three rebounds in 21 minutes of action. Lopez should continue to aid the already talented Bucks. Can he push them deeper into the playoff? If he does, he would likely secure himself one more pay day.
  2. Dennis Shroder — Shroder’s performance may have been inflated by the absence of Russell Westbrook. Correction — Shroder’s performance was definitely inflated by the absence of Westbook. But he demonstrated his value all the same. Oddly, the Hawks decided they wanted to part ways with the 25 year old point guard. Their loss. He notched 21 points, grabbed eight rebounds and dished out six assists in 34 minutes of action. And it will get easier for him considering the Thunder opened against Steph Curry and the defending champion Golden State Warriors. Shroder gives the Thunder a third playmaker — exactly what they were lacking in last year’s playoffs against the Jazz, and exactly what they hoped Melo could be.

One thing all the guys on this list have in common (beyond being above average players) is their willingness to take on a challenge. Nothing in sports — or life — is guaranteed. But we will have a clearer picture if their respective changes of scenery were made for better or worse. If they were done successfully, they can shift the balance of power in the league, and rework the competitive balance to a pretty crazy extent.

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NBA Daily: Will Philadelphia Struggle From Downtown?

Do the Philadelphia 76ers have enough outside shooting talent to spread the floor on the offensive end? Jordan Hicks takes a look.

Jordan Hicks

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It’s only been one game, and this could likely be an overreaction, but will the Philadelphia 76ers struggle this season from beyond-the-arc? With the departure of two highly capable shooters in Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, it might not be insane to say this could turn into a large problem throughout the season.

Last season for the 76ers, Belinelli finished 38.5 percent from three and Ilyasova finished at 36.1 percent. While neither of those percentages is staggering, both sit above the league average, and those players shoot and make threes at a consistent pace. Neither player was necessarily streaky from downtown, so you knew what to expect from them on a nightly basis.

What the two players brought more than anything was gravity. Each game, teams had to strategically plan how to stop them from making three-point shots. Players had to maintain certain spots on the floor defensively, which in turn left offensive players in advantageous positions. Losing both Belinelli and Ilyasova allows defenses to suck in closer to the paint so they can better defend Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons at what they do best – attack the rim.

This is precisely what the Boston Celtics did to the 76ers on Tuesday night, and the final score definitely told the tale. The Celtics ended up winning, 105-87. Boston is a talented squad, and playing at the TD Garden is never an easy task, but the 76ers are too good to lose by high double-digits.

Apart from Boston’s stellar defense, Philadelphia’s mark from the perimeter paints a clear picture of what they might struggle with throughout the season. They finished 5-for-26, good for 19.7 percent.

It’s not like they don’t have any help from three. Robert Covington led the NBA in catch-and-shoot three-point percentage last season and J.J. Redick shot a scorching career 41.5 percent from deep. Their third option from three is likely Dario Saric, who finished last season at 39.3 percent. But after those three the drop-off is significant. Embiid might come in next, and he shot a poor 30.8 percent last season.

By the end of the season, the top three scorers for Philadelphia could likely be Simmons, Embiid and last year’s first-round pick, Markelle Fultz. Not one of those players can shoot the three consistently, certainly not at an efficient mark. Simmons and Fultz have never even made a three-point field goal in their young careers.

All three of those players have the ability to score efficiently around the rim, and they’ll likely get their buckets. But with fewer players on the roster to worry about as a deep threat, teams will mirror Boston’s success and crowd the paint.

If Brett Brown continues to play Saric, Covington and Redick in limited minutes – they played just eight minutes together on Tuesday – most of their lineups will only ever feature two above average three-point shooters. This can begin to get highly problematic for the 76ers as the season progresses. As previously mentioned, teams will just stuff the area around the hoop with great rim protectors and only worry about crashing the boards when mid-range jumpers clank off the basket.

Teams that had the most success last season, à la the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors, had at minimum three high-level deep threats on the floor at all times. This allowed them to spread the offense, keep defenses guessing and find an open shooter after throwing the ball around from player to player or cutting to the basket. With the fact that multiple shooters on the court can spread out the defense and essentially keep them on their toes, all it takes is an intelligent cut or a crafty pass to find someone open at the rim. If teams don’t have enough efficient shooters on the floor, defenses can just suck in and stop players going to the hoop.

But when there are three or more plus shooters on the court, defenders have a really difficult decision to make. Do you try and play help defense by attempting to stop the shot at the rim? This can leave your opponent open for an easy three. Will help defense get there in time to defend the three? Maybe, but then another quick pass can find another open shooter. So do you stay on your man? Sure, but then you give up an easy basket at the rim.

That last paragraph was elementary. Most teams and fans understand this concept. The importance of efficient shooters in today’s league is at an all-time high. The 76ers have a very talented, young team. Simmons and Embiid are a phenomenal duo to build around. But their lack of players that hold any sort of gravity from three-point land could really give them struggles.

Alas, we are only one game into the season. A handful of teams have yet to play, so there is still plenty of basketball to be had. The 76ers are still monstrous on defense and can obviously generate baskets on the offensive end. Thanks in part to Simmons, they are one of the most electric teams in transition, and can often score with ease around the hoop.

Are the 76ers a playoff team? That’s essentially a lock. Can they go deep in the playoffs? It certainly appears so. But in order for them to make a legitimate run to the Finals, they’ll need to find more efficiency from the three-point line. Not simply because they could use those points, but because they need that spacing for their offense to function at an elite level.

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