Yesterday, our Tommy Beer broke down the top 10 NBA free agents who are available this summer. Today, we continue our look at this free agency class with a breakdown of the next tier of notable players who are sure to garner interest. Let’s pick up where Tommy left off, with player No. 11.
11. Harrison Barnes, 24, Restricted Free Agent:
Is Barnes a player who simply benefited from playing alongside an extremely talented core of players in Golden State or is he someone who should be praised and ultimately rewarded handsomely for being willing to subjugate his game for the greater good of his team? That’s the multi-million dollar question that we are likely to have answered over the next week or two, but let’s just say Barnes certainly didn’t do himself any favors with his play during the Warriors’ Finals run.
Put simply, if you were on the proverbial fence about whether Barnes is a guy who can put all of those skills together enough to consistently lead a team as a “main guy” then you might have backed away from that notion. If you’re convinced he can be called upon to be one of the main focuses on a winning team, then you probably just saw that run of futility as a rough patch that all players endure. Either way, it will be very interesting to see if a team moves forward and at least makes Golden State’s decision more difficult with a max offer sheet (as the Philadelphia 76ers are reportedly considering). Will the Warriors hesitate to make Barnes their highest paid player at this stage?
12. Chandler Parsons, 27, Unrestricted Free Agent:
Parsons would probably have received a sizable offer from more than one team this summer if he hadn’t just missed 37 combined games over the past two seasons with the Dallas Mavericks due to multiple procedures on his right knee. As it stands, he’s actually coming off a very efficient year in which he averaged 13.7 points on 49.2 percent shooting from the floor and 41.4 percent from three-point range – even if his on-court time dipped to the second-lowest total of his career at just 29.5 minutes per contest.
It could make sense for Parsons to sign a two-to-three-year deal with slightly more money per season in order to enter free agency again prior to his 30th birthday and while still in his prime years; however, the security of the longest available deal could also be more appealing for a player with his recent injury history. Either way, it only takes one general manager who is willing to bank on his health in order to bring in a guy with his offensive skill set, and Parsons might even have several favorable options to choose from.
13. Dwight Howard, 30, Unrestricted Free Agent:
In perhaps the most mutual opt-out of a last year in the history of such contract options, Howard predictably walked away from the final $23 million on the deal he signed with Houston just a few summers ago. On the heels of leaving guaranteed money on the table to sign with the Rockets in the first place, needless to say, things still haven’t gone the way the former three-time Defensive Player of the Year (2009-11) expected the back end of his prime years to go. Now, with drama behind the scenes and Mike D’Antoni taking over as head coach, Howard’s time in Houston seems done.
The thing is, even at a stage when he is clearly past his physical prime, Howard turned in a solid 2015-16 season when you look at the traditional stats. He averaged 13.7 PPG, 11.8 RPG and 1.6 BPG in 71 games this year. When relatively healthy, Howard is still a strong enough defender and rim protector to help a good team under the right circumstances. The smart move would be to take a short-term (two-to-three years max) at a range close to $18-20 million with a contender, but Howard could also seek the largest payout available from one of the teams that strike out with the bigger names and still need to find an impact player.
14. Dirk Nowitzki, 38, Unrestricted Free Agent:
Nowitzki is coming off of his 18th season in the NBA, but the 2011 Finals MVP still managed to average 18.3 PPG and 6.5 RPG while shooting 36.8 percent from deep at a relatively efficient level in 75 games for the Mavericks last season. Time will tell how much truth there is to any rumor that has Nowitzki potentially moving on to a contender, but the fact that the future Hall of Famer is still the topic of such talk is impressive in itself. It would be a bit of a surprise to see Nowitzki wind up ending his career in anything other than a Mavericks uniform, but that doesn’t mean opposing GMs won’t at least try to pursue him over the next week or so.
15. Ryan Anderson, 28, Unrestricted Free Agent:
After a difficult 2014-15 from a personal perspective, Anderson was able to rebound and at least get things back together on a professional level in 2015-16. Anderson raised his three-point percentage from 34 percent back to a respectable 36.6 percent this past year and was also more active on the boards for the Pelicans (averaging six rebounds per contest). Both the Los Angeles Lakers and his hometown Sacramento Kings have been among the teams with rumored interest, but his 17 points per game and ability to space the floor might make a bit more sense on a contending team looking for a piece to add that dynamic or put them over the top rather than joining another rebuilding effort. Either way, Anderson should be paid very well, with some reports indicating he could sign a near-max deal.
16. Evan Fournier, 23, Restricted Free Agent:
The Orlando Magic already stated an intention to match any offer sheet Fournier signs with another team, and that’s because they not only realize his current value as a young shooter in this league, but also because there is a belief that he hasn’t even reached his full potential as a player. Newly hired head coach Frank Vogel doesn’t have an awful lot of shooters on that roster to begin with, so he should be the first one knocking on general manager Rob Hennigan’s door if negotiations somehow go awry with the 6’7 shooting guard. His 15.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 2.7 APG were each career-highs this past season and his 40 percent shooting on 4.9 three-point attempts per night put him in the running as one of the deadliest shooters on the market this summer. Orlando would be foolish to let him leave town.
17. Marvin Williams, 30, Unrestricted Free Agent:
Not only is the 11-year veteran a positive locker room presence, he can still play a bit of both forward positions in certain lineups and he’s coming off of a year in which he shot 40.2 percent from beyond the arc. He also gave the Hornets 11.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and one block per game in just 28.9 minutes per night.
Teams specifically looking for a veteran power forward who can space the floor could certainly do a lot worse than Williams. The Hornets could prioritize fellow free agent swingman Nicolas Batum when negotiations open on Friday, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see several potential suitors come calling for Williams over the first few days of free agency if Charlotte keeps him waiting too long.
18. Bismack Biyombo, 23, Unrestricted Free Agent:
Besides being suspended for the 2016-17 NBA opener due to an accumulation of flagrant foul points in the most recent postseason, absolutely nothing is guaranteed for Biyombo as he heads into free agency. After his Eastern Conference Finals performance, many of us were left wondering whether the results were due to a favorable matchup or a willingness by a hungry Biyombo to seize the moment? The Toronto Raptors have several free agents to prioritize – including the DeMar DeRozan – who are likely to rank ahead of their back-up center once the floodgates open on July 1.
Biyombo is coming off a year when he played somewhat sparingly throughout the regular season (22 minutes per contest), but was particularly impressive in the postseason when filling in for an injured Jonas Valancuinas. Against the eventual NBA champions, Biyombo averaged 6.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks while playing very good defense against that Cavaliers’ front line. The question will be, are there any GMs who believe Biyombo can duplicate such success over the long haul and when asked to play at that high level consistently? If so, another team could “price” Biyombo outside of where the Raptors are comfortable spending this summer.
19. Pau Gasol, 35, Unrestricted Free Agent:
Gasol recently opted out of the final year (and $7.7 million) of his deal with the Chicago Bulls, and is reportedly expected to receive interest from several teams including the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks. While Gasol may have the understandable defensive concerns you’d expect a 35-year-old veteran big man to have – especially with the growing trend of teams specifically looking to exploit slower bigs in the pick-and-roll and along the perimeter – that doesn’t mean a smart and talented team couldn’t find a way to capitalize on what he still brings to the table.
Beyond being widely considered a phenomenal teammate and locker-room presence, Gasol simply knows the game of basketball. He’s an excellent post and mid-post option, remains one of the league’s better passing big men and will still block a shot or two at the rim or from the weakside. Expect him to be on a contender and potentially back in the Western Conference this upcoming season.
20. Jordan Clarkson, 24, Restricted Free Agent:
Clarkson is at that crossroad that many young and improving players from bad teams tend to face, and that’s determining whether his production is solely – or, at least, mainly – a result of someone having to put up numbers on a bad team or if he is truly a burgeoning talent who still has room to grow as a player. Those who watched his games (beyond box score hunting) can tell you that while Clarkson is far from a complete player, he showed real signs of progress in year two for the Lakers.
Beyond the 15.5 points, four rebounds and 2.5 assists, Clarkson looked far more comfortable from deep (up to 34.7 percent from just 31.4 as a rookie) and started getting to the rim with regularity as the season wore on. Taking the next step as a defender is the next big challenge, but all Clarkson has to do is convince GMs that he has the ability and willingness to do so in order to receive a significant raise this summer.
Jeremy Lin, Festus Ezeli, Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Kent Bazemore, Jamal Crawford, Joakim Noah, Evan Turner, Luol Deng, J.R. Smith, Jared Sullinger. For a complete list of this summer’s free agents, click here.
NBA Daily: The Golden State Warriors Need to Enter Rest Mode
With a bevy of injuries to their stars, the Golden State Warriors should rest up the remainder of the regular season to avoid any playoff letdowns.
After a three-year-long run of dominating the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are showing some cracks in their armor.
Granted, those cracks aren’t a result of a botched system or poor play, but rather the injury bug biting the team in full force as they come down the regular season stretch.
First, it was Steph Curry and the ankle that’s bothered him all season — and for most of his career — when he tweaked it yet again on March 8 against the San Antonio Spurs. Golden State announced he would miss at least four games. Then it was Klay Thompson, who fractured his thumb three days later against the Minnesota Timberwolves — he’ll miss at least two weeks.
Now it’s Kevin Durant. Last year’s Finals MVP suffered an incomplete rib cartilage fracture and was ruled out of Friday’s game against the Sacramento Kings. Durant is expected to be sidelined for at least two weeks. The Warriors would go on to lose that contest 95-93.
In about two weeks time, the Warriors went from having one of the most formidable offenses and scoring trios in the entire league, to having Quinn Cook and Nick Young logging starter minutes.
Luckily for the Warriors, they’ve built up a big enough lead in the standings to achieve a 52-17 record, good for second place in the Western Conference. But the issue for the remainder of the season now becomes how healthy will the Warriors be come playoff time?
Curry and Durant have injury histories. Curry particularly has been bothered by this ankle since he entered the league. Without either of them, the Warriors — while still incredibly talented — will be on a completely even playing field with the Houston Rockets, and possibly other teams in the gauntlet that will be the Western Conference playoffs.
The bigger issue on top of the pending injury concerns becomes whether the Warriors should just pack it in for the rest of the regular season, and regroup for another expected title run.
Steve Kerr doesn’t seem to be thinking that way, however.
“All these injuries seem to be temporary,” Kerr told reporters. “A couple weeks, a week, two weeks – whatever. We’re in good shape. We’ve just got to survive this next slate of games and hopefully, start getting guys back and get rolling again for the playoffs.”
That’s true. None of the aforementioned injuries seem to be anything more serious than a few weeks of rest and relaxation. But that’s assuming the best case scenario for these players.
Should we assume that the Warriors are without their scoring trio for the next couple of weeks as their health updates have indicated, that would put their return roughly around April 1. At that time, Golden State would have six games remaining on their schedule. Four coming against playoff teams (Oklahoma City, Indiana, New Orleans, and Utah) with the other two games against Phoenix.
After missing the last few weeks on the court, with injuries that most likely won’t be at 100 percent, tossing their most valuable contributors back into the fray against a slate of playoff teams probably isn’t the smartest idea.
At this point, the Warriors postseason position is locked up. They likely won’t take the top seed away from Houston, and their lead is big enough to keep their second seed intact regardless of who’s on the court. The only thing left now is the determining who Golden State will play in the first round. With the revolving carousel that is the playoff standings out West, that’s anybody’s guess right now.
The only thing that’s certain is whichever team coming into Oracle Arena for that first round will be battle tested and talented based off of the dogfight they had to survive just to make the playoffs. The last thing the Warriors need to be is a banged up in a postseason with their first opponent smelling blood in the water.
In all likelihood, the Warriors — should everything go according to plan — will play the Houston Rockets for a chance to return to their fourth straight NBA Finals. Only this time, a potential Game 7 won’t be at Oracle Arena. It will be in downtown Houston, at the Toyota Center.
An advantage as big as the Warriors’ homecourt can never be understated. Operating in a do-or-die situation away from home will be newfound territory for this bunch. Regardless of talent or team success, at that point, it’s anybody’s game.
It won’t be easy for the Golden State Warriors as they try to extend their dynasty’s reign. This might be their most difficult year yet.
Durant, in his own words, can’t even laugh right now without feeling pain. The league’s only unanimous MVP is operating on one and a half ankles, and the team’s second Splash Brother has an injury on his shooting hand.
Resting up the team’s stars should be the team’s top priority right now, at risk of entering the postseason hobbled. Track record means nothing if the Warriors don’t have their full arsenal at disposal when the games matter most.
Hey, a 16-seed finally won a first-round game in the NCAA Tournament. Anything is possible on a basketball court, and the Warriors should do everything possible to ensure they’re not the next major upset candidate in line.
Fixing The Detroit Pistons
David Yapkowitz looks at how the fading Pistons can turn things around moving forward.
We wrap this week up with another installment of our “Fixing” series here at Basketball Insiders. The next team up is the Detroit Pistons.
The Pistons came into this season with playoff aspirations after a disappointing 2016-17 campaign that saw them regress instead of building on their playoff appearance the season before. To begin the season, they looked like they were on their way to accomplishing that objective. Then Reggie Jackson got hurt and the season began spiraling out of control.
They tried to inject some life into the team by trading for Blake Griffin, but it hasn’t worked out as expected. The Pistons have gone 8-12 since acquiring Griffin and the postseason looks like a pipe dream at this point.
What Is Working
Not a whole lot. Despite trading for a superstar player, the Pistons have tumbled down to the point where playoffs are looking extremely unlikely.
If there’s one thing that’s a welcome sight, it’s the bounce back of Andre Drummond. After being named to his first All-Star team in 2015-16, Drummond had a bit of a let down the following season. This season, he was once again an All-Star while putting up career-highs in rebounds (15.7) and assists (3.2). Drummond is still only 24 years old and has his best basketball years ahead of him.
The Pistons have also received encouraging signs from rookie Luke Kennard. A lottery pick in last summer’s draft, Kennard he’s been one of the few bright spots at times for the Pistons. About a week ago, his playing time had diminished some and he racked up a few DNP’s, but Stan Van Gundy has since reinserted him into the rotation.
They’ve also gotten solid production out of Reggie Bullock. When Bullock came over to the Pistons in a trade with the Phoenix Suns almost three years ago, he was little more than a seldom-used wing with the potential to become a solid 3&D guy. This has been his year, however. He’s the best shooter on the team at 43.5 percent from the three-point line. His numbers, 10.8 points per game and 49.1 percent shooting from the field, are career-highs.
What Needs To Change
Quite a bit. Acquiring Griffin was a move the Pistons needed to make. On the verge of losing control of the season, they needed to make a move to try and turn things around. It’s been a disaster thus far, however. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and although they’re in ninth place, they’re falling farther and farther away from eighth.
Who the Pistons are really missing is Reggie Jackson. Ish Smith, who has proven himself beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is an NBA player, just isn’t Jackson. They desperately need Jackson’s playmaking abilities to help take the pressure off everyone else. Even if he returns this season, it’s already too late. The Pistons need to focus on getting him healthy and ready for next season.
The Pistons also need to improve their offense. They’re in the bottom half of the league in both points per game (25th) and offensive rating (24th). A big part of that is Jackson’s absence, but they could also benefit from additional outside shooting. Right now they have one long-range threat on the roster and that’s Bullock.
Focus Area: The Draft
To make matters worse, the Pistons will likely give up their draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of the Griffin trade. The only way the Clippers wouldn’t acquire the Pistons’ pick this year is if it falls in the top four, and that’s not going to happen.
The Pistons will have a second-round pick though. The draft is never 100 percent guaranteed, and the second round is even more of a crapshoot, but talented players can definitely be found. That’s what the Pistons’ main objective in the draft should be. It sounds silly, but they truly need to buckle down and do their homework in hopes of finding that one overlooked guy in the second round. That’s pretty much all they have to look forward to come draft night.
Focus Area: Free Agency
The Pistons are going to have a couple of minor decisions to make this summer regarding their free agents. Jameer Nelson, James Ennis, and Anthony Tolliver are all unrestricted free agents. Out of the three, Ennis has given the team the best on-court production, but it isn’t necessary that any of them are brought back.
Bullock and Dwight Buycks have non-guaranteed contracts, and those are the two guys that the Pistons should work towards bringing back in the fold. Both should have their contracts guaranteed for the following season. Bullock is their only three-point threat. Buycks began the season as a two-way contract player splitting time between the Pistons and the Grand Rapids Drive of the G-League. He’s since been converted to a standard NBA contract and has done enough to earn his spot on the team next year.
In terms of adding new players to the roster, as mentioned before, the Pistons need outside shooting. Marco Belinelli and Wayne Ellington are possible options that the Pistons might be able to afford. Joe Harris is another option, but it will be interesting to see what the market is for him after the strong season he’s been having in Brooklyn.
It’s tough to gauge the Pistons’ true potential without Jackson. If he returns before the season ends, it will be too small a sample size to accurately assess the team. There are only 14 games left. Although things look pretty bleak right now, it can’t be argued that injuries haven’t played a big role in the Pistons disappointing season.
The team deserves a shot at seeing how a healthy Jackson, Griffin, and Drummond trio looks on the court together. If they start off next season the same way despite all three being healthy and in the lineup, then it would be time for serious changes.
Fixing The Chicago Bulls
Spencer Davies says the Bulls have a long way to go, but they’re taking steps forward. In year one without the former face of the franchise, that’s about all they can ask for.
Next up on Basketball Insiders’ “fixing” series is a stop in the Windy City.
In spite of the criticisms over last summer’s Jimmy Butler trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves, it feels like the Chicago Bulls at least have a sense of direction. Many members of the media—including this one—expected them to finish dead last in the NBA, yet they have 23 wins, with seven other teams worse off.
Obviously, the goal for the organization this season was to establish an identity and see what they had with their new cornerstone pieces. To a good extent, there’s optimism regarding those players because of the potential they’ve shown.
There’s still a good chunk of the year left, but the Bulls are 12th in the Eastern Conference standings with 15 games to go.
What Is Working
If it weren’t for the spectacular seasons by Donovan Mitchell and Ben Simmons, Chicago stretch big man Lauri Markkanen might be the Rookie of the Year. Even with some second-half struggles, the entire body of work is impressive.
The 7-foot Finnish forward continues to stay aggressive with a high usage and great mentality in snatching up those boards. It’s normal for a first-year player to go through those ups and downs. Add in a back injury that’s been bothering him as of late and the slump make a little more sense. Markkanen has shown the skill and consistent effort that it takes to be a mainstay in this league.
Bobby Portis is another member of the frontcourt who’s made a noticeable impact off the Bulls’ bench. In his third year, you can see the confidence continue to grow as a versatile offensive threat with a ton of touches. He’s taken a responsibility upon himself to lead the second unit and the proof is in the pudding. According to Cleaning The Glass, the team is a net plus-11.5 per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Second-year swingman Denzel Valentine has filled the stat sheet in multiple games as one of the most unselfish players on the roster. David Nwaba’s role from the beginning was to be a defensive menace and he’s come through for the majority of the year. Even two-way contract rookie Antonio Blakeney has shown flashes as a volume scorer in stretches.
Recently, Chicago has given a couple of cast-offs opportunities to display their skills. In 10 games, Cameron Payne looks as comfortable as he has in quite some time coming off a major foot injury. Noah Vonleh has been an effective late addition playing next to Portis and filling in for Markkanen. Let’s not forget that these two were lottery picks and are still in their early 20s.
What Needs To Change
Looking at what Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine have done, it’s been a mixed bag. With that being said, there’s clearly untapped potential between the both of them.
Dunn proved in very little time that the narrative of him being a lost cause was far from the truth. Hoiberg’s trust in him to be Chicago’s floor general has gone a long way. He’s been in attack mode with the ball in his hands, has seen his outside game get better and has been bothersome with his length defensively. It hasn’t resulted in wins, but remember—it’s this group’s first season together.
As for LaVine, it’s difficult to judge where a player is using a 23-game sample size. Yes, it’s a good amount of playing time, but let’s not forget he’s coming off a devastating left ACL tear. His defense has been subpar, but the bounce seems to still be there. The jumper is on and off, but he hasn’t been bashful at all. Starting the year off fresh in 2018-19 will benefit him.
Speaking of next season, the goal for the front office of Gar Forman and John Paxson should be simple—get younger. Currently, Robin Lopez is the highest paid player on the Bulls and he’ll have one year left on his deal going into the summer. The same applies to Justin Holiday. These are two veterans who could contribute on teams ready to win now, and it would be logical to part ways considering the direction the franchise is going.
Focus Area: The Draft
Due to the Nikola Mirotic trade on February 1st, Chicago acquired a first-round draft pick from the New Orleans Pelicans. That gives them two chances to add to their young talent pool in the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft.
Typically you’d go with the best player available when you’re slotted in the top ten, but the Bulls should feel good about their backcourt and the power forward position. What they really are lacking are reliable shooters and perimeter defenders, as well as a player with a bulldog mentality.
Chicago doesn’t get to the free throw nearly enough and they don’t convert looks that they should. Considering a true wing is amiss, it’d be the ideal scenario for Michael Porter Jr. to fall right into their lap. The Missouri freshman just returned after missing basically the entire season with a back injury. He was a top name coming into the class because of his size and could be a steal with the eighth selection.
If Porter Jr. doesn’t make it to them, Miles Bridges would make for a heck of a consolation prize. Unlike Porter, he has a more muscular frame at 6-foot-7, 230 pounds that allows him to bully the opposition. There’s a relentless nature and fearlessness about him that will translate to the next level.
Using that Pelicans pick, the Bulls would be happy to see Duke sharpshooter Gary Trent Jr. fall to them in the early-to-mid 20s, but that seems more unlikely with Anthony Davis continuing to carry New Orleans to new heights. If they end up selecting towards to the back end of the first round, Arizona junior guard Allonzo Trier could end up being a good fit as well.
Focus Area: Free Agency
Entering the summer, Chicago doesn’t have too many decisions to make on the contract front.
The trade exception from the Butler deal expires on June 22nd. If it’s not used by then, the amount will be renounced if the team goes under the salary cap. The deadline to present Noah Vonleh and David Nwaba a qualifying offer is June 29th.
Everybody’s going to keep an eye on LaVine because of restricted free agency, but the Bulls have indicated they prefer him to be a part of their core. They’ll in all likelihood look to bring him back on a long-term contract. If he doesn’t approve of the terms, he can always choose to play on his qualifying offer and bet on himself.
Chicago has to decide whether or not to guarantee Paul Zipser’s $1.5 million salary for next season by July 18th. The extension deadline for Payne, Portis, and Grant is the day before the first day of the 2018 campaign and team option deadlines for Dunn and Markannen come on Halloween.
There probably won’t be too much activity on the Bulls’ part regarding free agency. The focus will lay on improving their young core and getting guys who are just getting on the upswing in the pros. There are talents out there who fit the bill. It just all depends on what comes from the draft.
All in all, Chicago has a long way to go to get back into the postseason conversation, but they’re taking steps forward. In year one without the former face of the franchise, that’s about all you can ask for.