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The Finals: Who’s Got Next?

Buddy Grizzard looks at the teams that are best positioned to shove their way into championship contention.

Buddy Grizzard

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With Kevin Durant added to a Golden State Warriors core that already had two trips to the Finals and one NBA championship under its belt, the superteam era looks poised to continue for years into the future. LeBron James has led his teams to seven straight NBA Finals appearances, while the Spurs remain potent after a 61-win regular season. But who’s got next? What teams are positioned to elbow their way into that contender conversation?

In this piece we’ll look at teams that are a few moves away from entering that rarified air of contender status. The Warriors look poised to make a series of Finals appearances that could equal or exceed the four straight of James’ previous superteam, the Miami HEAT. The following are teams that could challenge that dominance in the coming seasons with the right personnel decisions.

Boston Celtics

The team most ready to rise to contender status is the Celtics, thanks to a masterful series of moves by Boston’s president of basketball operations Danny Ainge. With the first of what will likely be three consecutive high lottery picks that Ainge fleeced from the Nets, he selected Jaylen Brown, among this season’s most productive rookies. As fate would have it, the Celtics gained this year’s top overall pick in a draft heavy with point guards, Boston’s position of least need.

But a look at the Celtics’ cap sheet shows a litany of team-friendly contracts that show what a thorough job Ainge has done of positioning Boston to move into contention. All-Star Isaiah Thomas enters the final year of a deal that will pay a mere $6.3 million. Avery Bradley is likewise entering a final year in which he’ll earn $8.8 million. And Jae Crowder has three years remaining on the most absurdly team-friendly contract in the NBA, which will scale from next season’s $6.8 million to $7.8 in 2019-20. Thanks to Ainge’s stellar work in the draft, free agency and trades, Boston has the flexibility to take multiple paths to contention.

If the Celtics keep this year’s pick rather than package it in a blockbuster trade for a player the caliber of Chicago’s Jimmy Butler or Indiana’s Paul George, it seems almost certain Ainge will select Washington point guard Markelle Fultz. This would create a huge logjam at point guard, where Boston already has Thomas, Marcus Smart and the very promising Terry Rozier. With the top end of the draft light on front court prospects, where the Celtics could use the most help, Ainge will surely take the best player available and deal with the consequences later.

Meanwhile, Boston will explore every additional avenue to improve. Crowder did not appreciate Boston fans’ infatuation with Jazz small forward Gordon Hayward. But given the challenges facing the Celtics’ front court, he may need to reconsider. Amir Johnson was a shell of himself in the playoffs, averaging a mere 2.6 points and 2.1 rebounds despite nine starts. He may not be back, while Kelly Olynyk duplicates the finesse, floor-stretching front court role of Al Horford. If Boston is able to add Hayward, coach Brad Stevens’ former understudy at Butler, Crowder could see a lot of minutes next season at the power forward position.

Even if Boston fails to execute a major trade or obtain Hayward, the Celtics will still be players in free agency thanks to Ainge’s brilliant work within the salary cap. Regardless of any potential duplication, Boston should look to add as many impact players as it can. If all else fails, the Celtics could still pursue four-time All-Star and current Atlanta Hawk Paul Millsap or Blake Griffin of the Clippers. Boston was impressive this season, winning the East’s top playoff seed. But look for the Celtics to be even tougher next season after adding multiple significant pieces this summer.

Utah Jazz

For the Jazz, a lot will depend on Boston’s success or failure at prying away Hayward. If Utah fails to get Hayward under contract, Rudy Gobert and the oft-injured Alec Burks are the only players signed to guaranteed contracts beyond next season. It could send the organization spiraling into a years-long rebuild after it impressively and unexpectedly reached 51 wins and the second round of the playoffs this season.

If Hayward stays, the Jazz has Derrick Favors and Joe Johnson under contract for next season as Utah’s mostly young core enters its prime together. The Jazz will of course also need to retain point guard George Hill, who proved to be exactly the sort of steady, veteran presence Utah needed to reach its potential. Retain those key free agents and much will depend on health and the continued development of the younger players. Rodney Hood struggled to score in the playoffs, but he shot a career-high 37 percent from three in the regular season. He appears to be a player who could reach another gear and help the Jazz reach greater heights.

As with any team, the limiting factor will be health. As impressive as Utah’s season was, think what the team could have achieved if not decimated by so many injuries to key players. With the right moves in free agency and better luck with injuries next season, the Jazz could top 55 wins and be even more formidable in the playoffs.

Houston Rockets

As impressive as Utah was, no team over-achieved more this season than the Rockets. Projected by many observers to be a fringe playoff team, Houston amassed 55 wins in the brutal Western Conference, a win total higher than every team except Golden State and San Antonio. James Harden cemented his MVP candidacy by crushing Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City in the first round before running out of gas in the Conference Semifinals against the Spurs.

Houston GM Daryl Morey made a huge gamble by signing Ryan Anderson to a four-year, $80 million contract and making a total commitment to the three-pointer. This approach and coach Mike D’Antoni’s daring gambit in moving Harden to full-time point guard brought Houston within two wins of the Conference Finals. Harden, Anderson, Patrick Beverley and Eric Gordon — who experienced a renaissance season — are all under contract for at least two more seasons. Trevor Ariza and Lou Williams each have one year left.

Among the team’s significant contributors, only Nene will be a free agent this summer. However, Houston’s roster stability cuts both ways. With so many players under contract, Houston lacks the kind of roster flexibility enjoyed by the Celtics. For the Rockets to take that next step to true contention, the only available path will be through internal improvement. D’Antoni will have to find a way to extend the minutes of his bench to avoid a repeat of this season when Houston looked gassed in the second round. The Rockets’ best opportunity to take the next step will be for one of its young frontcourt pieces — Clint Capela, Montrezl Harrell and Sam Dekker — to make a significant leap next season.

Toronto Raptors

Like the Jazz, the Raptors failed to reach their full potential in the playoffs due to bad luck with injuries. As with the Rockets, the Raptors have multiple core pieces wrapped up on multi-year deals. Raptors president Masai Uriji will have to break the bank if he hopes to retain both Kyle Lowry and trade acquisition Serge Ibaka. If Lowry returns and Toronto reaches the playoffs relatively healthy, this is a team that proved in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals that it can challenge the Cavaliers.

Fail to retain Lowry, however, and the Raptors will have almost no chance of replacing him with an equally-talented point guard. Like the Jazz, Toronto must either pay up to retain the team’s starting point guard or possibly see all the work that brought the team to the brink of contention go to waste.

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers get an honorable mention here because, despite rumblings of chemistry issues and Doc Rivers’ inability to assemble a competent bench, it’s hard to imagine Chris Paul and Griffin departing the NBA’s best market and leaving stacks of cash on the table. The Clippers disappointed by flaming out in the first round against the surprising Jazz. But if L.A.’s Big Three can all be healthy for the playoffs, this is a collection of talent that can make noise. The limiting factor will be Rivers’ ability to pull off a miracle by somehow conjuring a competent bench out of thin air.

Washington Wizards

Also a few steps behind the teams higher on this list are the Washington Wizards. The backcourt combination of John Wall and Bradley Beal outplayed their opposing starters in both playoff rounds. Markieff Morris was surprisingly effective on both sides of the ball. And Otto Porter followed up his breakout regular season with an impressive playoff run. The Wizards will have to fend off multiple suitors who will seek to convince Porter to sign an offer sheet in restricted free agency. But if he’s retained, Washington will again have one of the NBA’s best starting units regardless of what happens with center Marcin Gortat.

As with the Clippers, Washington’s only real chance to ascend to contender status will be a massive overhaul of the bench. Kelly Oubre Jr., despite Wall’s campaigning for him to receive more minutes, was largely ineffective in the playoffs. So too was mid-season trade acquisition Bojan Bogdanovic. The Wizards would do well to make retaining Porter the priority, but general manager Ernie Grunfeld will have his work cut out in addressing the lack of depth.

Among the teams mentioned, the Celtics are clearly the closest to challenging an incumbent conference champion for a spot in next year’s NBA Finals. But the Jazz, Rockets and Raptors could also enter that conversation if everything breaks right this summer. For the Clippers and Wizards, it’s going to take a massive bench overhaul that will be very difficult to execute to break through to the next level. Cleveland and Golden State may continue to monopolize the NBA Finals in future seasons, but these are the teams standing on the sidelines calling next if either team stumbles.

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NBA

NBA Daily: The Lakers’ Path Back to the NBA Finals

In the wake of Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Bobby Krivitsky examines the Los Angeles Lakers’ path back to the NBA Finals.

Bobby Krivitsky

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It’s been 15 games since a high ankle sprain sidelined LeBron James. 

With the Western Conference standings congested as ever and Anthony Davis already out due to a right calf strain and a re-aggravation of his right Achilles tendinosis, the Los Angeles Lakers faced the threat of a fall that might have led to their participation in the NBA’s new play-in tournament.

Though they’ve gone just 7-8, the Lakers have fought admirably in the absence of their two stars and, as a result, their drop in the standings has been rather painless, falling from third at the time of James’ injury to now fifth in the West.

The primary reason the Lakers have been able to tread water without their two stars is they’ve remained stingy on defense. Since James’ injury, they have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. That’s despite facing four teams who rank in the top five in offensive rating and six of the categories’ top-10 members.

Right now, the Lakers are 2.5 games ahead of the sixth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers, with a 4.5-game cushion between them and the Dallas Mavericks, who are seventh in the conference. That should be a large enough gap to keep Los Angeles out of the play-in tournament, but the two teams are going to converge for a two-game series starting Thursday. For the Lakers, getting swept would re-open the possibility of having to compete in the play-in tournament.

Fortunately for them, even splitting that series would make it unlikely the Mavericks finish ahead of the Lakers in the standings. And help might be on the way for the Lakers: Davis may soon rejoin the lineup, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, meaning there’s a distinct possibility he’s active for at least one of those two matchups. As for James, he’s on track to return in three weeks.

While Los Angeles’ stars are getting closer to making their returns, the Denver Nuggets got dealt a more severe blow when Jamal Murray tore his ACL in a recent game against the Golden State Warriors. Denver is 10-2 since acquiring Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline and looked the part of a legitimate title contender prior to Murray’s injury. 

Denver is fourth in the West, 1.5 games ahead of Los Angeles. But even if the Nuggets have home-court advantage, they’re the preferable opening-round opponent, not just for Los Angeles, but any team with a legitimate chance at the fourth or fifth seed.

Fortunately for the Lakers, that’s the place in the Western Conference pecking order where they’re most likely to finish this season. So long as the Nuggets don’t freefall in Murray’s absence, Los Angeles will likely start the playoffs against an opponent that’s gone from having the potential to present the greatest challenge to the defending champions’ quest to get back to the Finals to becoming a desirable first-round matchup.

After that, the Lakers may have to get past the Utah Jazz and or the Los Angeles Clippers to make a return trip to the NBA Finals. The former has the best record in the league this season, but locking horns with the defending champions in a best of seven series is a far more challenging and potentially rewarding proving ground.

The Jazz have a deep, reliable rotation, they have the best net rating in the NBA, they’re in the top five in points for and against per 100 possessions, and they’re attempting the most threes per game, but also rank in the top five in three-point shooting percentage. However, the Lakers would have the two best players in a series against Utah. Usually, an opponent doesn’t overcome that disadvantage.  

As for the Clippers, Rajon Rondo has quickly proven to be an impactful acquisition. Los Angeles is seven and one with him in the lineup, generating the highest net rating in the league during that span. Last season, the Lakers saw first-hand how impactful playoff Rondo can be. Now, the Clippers are hoping he can bring structure to their offense, something they sorely lacked last postseason and was at the forefront of them blowing a 3-1 series lead over the Nuggets. Doing so would go a long way towards maximizing the production of a team that has the talent to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time in franchise history.

If this is the year the battle of LA takes place in the postseason, it figures to be a slugfest. Still, the Clippers have their doubters after last year’s meltdown in the playoffs. There’s also a large contingency who are skeptical about how far the Jazz can go in the postseason, given their lack of a top-tier superstar. Despite the validity of those concerns, both teams can beat the Lakers in a best of seven series. That no longer appears to be the case for the Nuggets, which is a shame for them and people who want to see the best possible matchups in the playoffs. But Murray’s injury, as unfortunate an occurrence as it is, makes it easier for the Lakers to get through the gauntlet that is the Western Conference and have a chance to claim an 18th championship, which would break their tie with the Boston Celtics for the most titles in NBA history.

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NBA

NBA AM: The Play-In Game – West

With the season winding down, Ariel Pacheco takes a look at how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Western Conference.

Ariel Pacheco

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With the regular season’s end in sight, teams are making their last push to make the playoffs in what has been a condensed season. But the new play-in tournament is providing more teams than ever a chance at a coveted playoff spot.

Here is what the new play-in tournament will look like: Teams that finish with the Nos 7 and 8 seeds will face off against each other. The winner of this game will be No. 7. The Nos. 9 and 10 seeds will also play and the winner will play the loser of the first game. The winner of this game will be the No. 8 seed. 

The play-in tournament provides intrigue and adds pressure on teams in both conferences to finish in the top six and avoid the play-in altogether. The Western Conference, in particular, is shaping up to have a rather exciting finish. There are a number of teams who could find themselves fighting for their playoff lives in this year’s tournament – all below in tiers.

Teams Likely To Avoid Play-In

Portland Trail Blazers (32-24)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 11

The Trail Blazers are currently the sixth seed in the West meaning, for now, they are safe from the play-in tournament. However, they are just two games above the Mavericks from possibly dropping down a place. They’re the team most likely to secure that sixth seed because they have more talent than the teams below them – hello, Dame – and they also have an elite offense. However, the defensive concerns are very real and if they were to slip, it would likely be because of their struggles on that side of the ball.

Likely Play-In Teams

Dallas Mavericks

Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 5
Games Against West: 8

On paper, the Mavs have a really easy schedule as the season winds down. They have just five games against teams over .500 and two against the Los Angeles Lakers, who may be without their two stars for those games. However, they are just 10-12 this season against sub .500 teams and are coming off a disappointing loss to the Sacramento Kings. There’s still a pretty good chance they get the sixth seed and avoid the play-in, but it also wouldn’t be surprising to see them in it as well.

Memphis Grizzlies
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 7
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 12

The Grizzlies are often overlooked, but they are about as well-coached as any other team in the NBA. It is likely they will be in the play-in game, but don’t be surprised if they are able to sneak into the sixth seed. They lost last year’s play-in game in the Bubble to the Blazers, so they do have experience in this type of setting. They may be getting Jaren Jackson Jr. back soon which should help. 

Golden State Warriors
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 9
Games Against Teams Over .500: 6
Games Against West: 13

The Warriors are getting just other-worldly performances from Stephen Curry on an almost nightly basis at this point. However, they continue to struggle to win games, in large part due to the struggles when he sits on the bench. Their schedule is pretty light to close the season, which bolsters their chances. The talent on this team isn’t great, but Curry’s play should be enough to get them in the play-in tournament. 

San Antonio Spurs
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 12
Games Against West: 7

The Spurs have struggled of late, especially after the All-Star break. Their defense has dropped off badly, but if there’s any reason to be positive, it’s that they are still coached by Gregg Popovich and their young guys continue to show improvement. They have been really good on the road this season and a majority of their games are on the road. It won’t be easy, but the Spurs should find themselves in the play-in tournament.

Outside Looking In

New Orleans Pelicans
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 6
Games Against Teams Over .500: 9
Games Against West: 11

The Pelicans have been hit with the injury bug of late, but their inconsistent play this season continues to be a huge problem. Their defense continues to bleed three-pointers and while point Zion Williamson has worked, there just isn’t enough shooting to maximize him just yet. It seems unlikely the Pelicans make a late-season run to the play-in game.

Sacramento Kings

Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: 8
Games Against Teams Over .500: 8
Games Against West: 14

The Kings are the least likely team to make the play-in tournament. Their defense is still problematic and they just recently ended their 9-game losing streak. It’ll take a huge late-season push and the Kings just haven’t shown that they are capable of putting it all together for a long enough stretch. 

The play-in tournament adds a new layer of competition that will bring excitement at the end of the season. Be sure to check out how the play-in tournament is shaping up in the Eastern Conference.

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NBA

NBA Daily: The Play-In Game — East

With the play-in tournament just around the corner, Matt John previews who in the Eastern Conference might qualify for it.

Matt John

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It’s official: we’re entering the regular season’s endgame. Every game from here on out will have much bigger consequences, a statement even truer in 2021 than perhaps any other season thanks to the NBA’s new play-in tournament.

If you’re not familiar, the play-in tournament will consist of two matchups within each conference. The seventh and eighth seeds of both conferences will face off against one another, while the ninth and 10th seeds shall do the same. The winner of the seven-eight matchup will take their conference’s seventh seed, while the winner of the nine-10 game will face the aforementioned match’s loser for the eighth and final spot in the postseason. It’ll serve as a nice appetizer before the playoffs get underway.

So, now that we have 15 games left give or take, it’s time to get a full scope of who we’re most likely to see in this year’s play-in, starting with the Eastern Conference. There’s really no need to go over teams that have all but clinched their playoff spots like Philadelphia, Brooklyn, or Milwaukee. Just like there’s no need to mention teams that are way too out of a reach for a playoff spot like Detroit and Orlando.

But that does leave ten teams in the Eastern Conference that we could potentially see in the play-in. At first glance, it would sound ridiculous to say that Boston and Cleveland could be in the play-in seeing how they are separated by ten and a half games, but Boston is only two and a half games ahead of Miami for that seventh seed while Cleveland is only three games behind Chicago for the tenth seed.

The best way to evaluate is to divide these into tiers. One for playoff teams who are likely to avoid the play-in, one for teams that are most likely to be in the play-in, and those that are likely to miss out on the play-in.

Likely to Avoid

Atlanta Hawks (30-26)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: 11
Games Against Teams Over .500: Six
Games Against East: 13

Replacing Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan proved to be a genius move by Atlanta’s front office, as the Hawks have won 16 of their last 23 games. They may have had that stretch where they lost four of five, but that was on a West Coast Trip. Seeing how almost 75 percent of their remaining games will be at home, it’s hard to see Atlanta collapsing. They may be decimated by injuries right now, but the schedule seems a little too easy for them to blow this.

Boston Celtics (31-26)
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Four
Games Against East: 10

Much like Atlanta, Boston’s really hit their stride over the past few weeks. Getting healthy and making a few roster changes have helped them rediscover the team that started out so well at the beginning of the season. It’s hard seeing Boston folding down the stretch primarily because they won’t be facing too many strong opponents from here until the regular season’s end. Given their recent strong play, don’t expect an appearance at the play-in tournament.

Likely Play-In Teams

New York Knicks (30-27)
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: Nine
Games Against Teams Over .500: Eight
Games Against East: Six

Give credit where credit is due. The Knickerbockers are not going away. They’ve stayed the course when many thought this was going to be another wasted year for them. They’ve given no reason to indicate that they’re stopping now. The reason they’re not as sure of a thing as Atlanta or Boston is because, over this last stretch, they’re going to face off against several Western Conference contenders looking for the highest seeding possible. As tough as that’s going to be, the Knicks are going to make each one of them earn those wins, guaranteed.

Miami HEAT (28-28)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Seven
Games Against East: 11

It’s been difficult to get a read on the reigning Eastern Conference champions. They go on stretches that basically even out each other. After starting out 11-17, they win 12 of their next 13, then follow that up by losing their next six games, then win six of their next seven, then finally and most recently, they lose their next three games. No one really knows what Miami’s ceiling is right now. Odds are, the HEAT will probably be in the play-in. It’s just a matter of where. Also, why have we still not gotten any updates on Victor Oladipo?

Charlotte Hornets (27-28)
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 11
Games Against Teams Over .500: Eight
Games Against East: 13

What’s happened to the Hornets over the past few weeks is just straight up not fair. If LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward were playing, they’d solidly be in the same tier as Boston and Atlanta. With their squad fully healthy, Charlotte’s a playoff team, but being down their two best players definitely takes them down a peg. They deserve props that they haven’t rolled over since losing those two, but sadly they’re nowhere near as good as they were with their whole squad. Their schedule is easy enough that it shouldn’t knock them out of the play-in. If LaMelo and Hayward are back by then, then it’s hard not seeing the Hornets get into the postseason.

Indiana Pacers (26-29)
Games Left: 17
Home Games Left: 11
Games Against Teams Over .500: Seven
Games Against East Teams: 11

It hasn’t been talked about enough how injuries have really shaken up Indiana’s season. TJ Warren’s foot injury was a substantial season-long setback and Caris Levert’s cancer, as miraculous of a story as that was, was another prolonged absence. Overall, Indiana’s injuries have led to a rather underachieving season compared to past results. Luckily their schedule for the rest of the season shouldn’t be too tough, so making the play-in seems realistic.

Outside Looking In

*One of these teams will get the play-in as the 10th seed.

Toronto Raptors (23-34)
Games Left: 15
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Nine
Games Against East Teams: Seven

That’s right, the same Raptors, who only weeks ago were in serious talks to trade Kyle Lowry to the highest bidder, have suddenly found themselves in the fight for the final spot for the play-in. It’s not that they’ve suddenly turned it all around. It’s that the competition is too weak for them to bow out completely. Their schedule may allow them to go all-in on the tank, but maybe one last hurrah with the franchise’s greatest player isn’t the worst way to go.

Chicago Bulls (23-33)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Seven
Games Against Teams Over .500: Nine
Games Against East Teams: 16

Good news: Nikola Vucevic looks like he’s fitting in splendidly. Bad news: The team has been on a downward spiral since his (and others) acquisition. Chicago has only won four of their last 13 games since the trade deadline and their remaining schedule is not going to be a breeze. On paper, they should be a shoo-in for the 10th seed, but the roster holes right now appear to be too glaring for Chicago to take the next step. If they don’t at the very least make the play-in, that’s not going to be a good look after all the moves they made.

Washington Wizards (23-33)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Eight
Games Against Teams Over .500: Five
Games Against East Teams: 10

Remember when Washington was one of the worst teams in the league record-wise? And how they managed to only slightly improve themselves over the course of the season? Well, apparently that was enough to get them into the conversation for the play-in because, lo and behold, they’re now tied with Chicago for that 10th seed. It gets better too. They only face two tough challenges from here on out – Lakers and Bucks – but after that, it’s honestly easy enough that they might be the favorite to get that last play-in spot.

Cleveland Cavaliers (20-36)
Games Left: 16
Home Games Left: Nine
Games Against Teams over .500: Six
Games Against East Teams: 12

This sounds the most ludicrous seeing how the Cavs are currently the East’s 13th seed, but being three games behind Chicago while facing only six teams over .500 gives them a fighting chance. If the Cavaliers are actually able to get the play-in, that’s a big stepping stone for their future. It’s an accomplishment to build off of in an era with no LeBron James to speak of, which they haven’t been able to do since Friends was on the air.

As you can see, the play-in has, in a way, brought a new dimension to the NBA season. In any previous season (excluding the last one) no one would bat an eye at the 10 through 13 seeds. Their season at this point would be all but done and no one would care, but because of the possibility of going to a play-in tournament, teams suddenly have the chance to make something of what usually would have been a lost season.

Some teams may get annoyed by it because their time is coming to a close and there’s no need to delay the inevitable. For others, the play-in signifies that it could just be the beginning.

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