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NBA Daily: Will More Teams Rent All-Stars?

With two teams renting high-profile players this season, Matt John examines from past data the risks and rewards of renting a star.

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We need to cut the Washington Wizards some slack. Among everything that’s gone wrong for them, at the end of the day, at least they tried.

Then again, what has trying gotten them? A 16-24 record, endless reports of discontent, and arguably the most underachieving roster in the league. John Wall’s season-ending heel surgery all but confirms that this has been the season from hell for the Wiz.

What’s worse is that they’ve got a lot of questions after this season ends. How will they handle John Wall’s super-max kicking in? How much longer will Scott Brooks be running the show? What direction do they go if they get a high lottery pick?

The most important question they have to face is, what do they do with Bradley Beal?

Beal has the most affordable contract on the team, is playing like he’s worth every penny, and it expires after next season.

With his status as a bonafide star, the fast answer would be to extend him. but does he want to stay in DC’s most popularized circus? Beal has had a rocky history with Wall, to say the least, and the Wizards have had their fair share of disappointment since their coming out party in 2014.

We currently live in an environment where loyalty hardly exists anymore among star players, especially if they’re in unstable situations. If things don’t get better, trading Beal could definitely be in play. At this point though, he would pretty much be a rental. As terrific as Beal is, teams may hesitate to rent him because of what would be at stake.

Renting a star player can provide a high reward just as much as it provides a high risk. It can pan out stupendously well just as much as it can horribly backfire.

Teams rent star players for two very simple reasons: They make an attempt to find an extra push for their playoff chances, and they can acquire the star for much cheaper on an expiring contract than if the player was on a longer contract.

In the past year and a half, we’ve seen teams take a chance renting very high profile players. Teams took flyers on Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler for exactly the reasons listed above. Since making these acquisitions, they’ve had success, but whether they work out the way the teams that acquired them hope is up in the air.

Some rentals have panned out tremendously while others have actually set the franchise back for years. Let’s start with the one rental that qualifies as the best-case scenario: Paul George.

Many thought Oklahoma City was crazy to trade for George. The Thunder play in a small market, and it was the league’s worst secret that PG-13 already had his eyes set on playing for his hometown Lakers, one of the biggest markets in the country. This had failure written all over it.

The Thunder took the risk because, after getting eliminated in five games by the Rockets in 2017, they knew that George’s reputation could vault the team to a higher status in the West. At the time, they, along with everyone else, didn’t feel like Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis had much value when they traded them for George.

George’s first season in OKC wasn’t exactly spectacular. He put up an All-Star like performance, but his numbers took a slight dip as he transitioned to being the No. 2 guy on the Thunder. The team finished with 50 wins, which was good enough for the fourth seed. That proved to not be enough, as the Jazz beat the Thunder in six games, putting George’s future on the Thunder very much in doubt.

Or so we thought. George didn’t even hesitate to re-sign with the Thunder for the max. It had been confirmed even before free agency started that George was returning.

Now, George is having a well-documented MVP caliber season, putting up career highs in points, rebounds, assists – you name it. With his new five-year deal taking effect, and the Thunder at the moment being one of the West’s best teams, it’s fair to say that this rental worked out to the best OKC could have imagined.

The only one downside is whether or not it will lead to any playoff success for the Thunder. George has made some big strides this season, but many have questioned whether or not he has what it takes to come through for his team with the game on the line. We’ll be sure to find out if he can prove the doubters wrong over these next five years.

At the end of the day, the Thunder took the risk of renting Paul George when many thought there was no chance in hell that he’d stay, and it worked. Believe it or not, this next rental involved a player who many thought was a shoo-in to stay, only to go the other way. The player in mind is Dwight Howard.

Many couldn’t believe the supposedly very little the Lakers gave up for the best center in the NBA back in the summer of 2012. Dwight was the most dominant big in the NBA who grew tired of Orlando because his gradually weakening supporting cast forced him to do most of the legwork. Moving up the Lakers, who had Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash and Metta World Peace made for one of the most talented starting fives on paper.

The Lakers took the risk because it was Dwight Howard, and with the Lakers’ storied history, there was no way a star like that who pined for success would leave them. With Kobe entering the final years of his prime, getting Dwight was his last golden opportunity to get another ring. When everything was announced, it didn’t seem like there was really any risk at all.

Unfortunately, it was a nightmare. Dwight never really played the way he did during his Orlando days. He put up pretty darn good numbers, but he never regained his old form, and his problems with teammates were well-documented. What doesn’t get enough attention is that the Lakers had actually started putting it together, but Kobe tore his Achilles just before the playoffs, destroying all hope the team once had.

That was enough for Howard. He left for Houston that summer and the Lakers had to go through countless losing seasons until LeBron came to town six years later. The Lakers could not have foreseen how badly their trade for Dwight would work against them. As bad as it was, he still had a better season than Andrew Bynum. Still, this proved to be a major setback with Dwight at the center of it.

Looking back, it probably was the “Dwightmare” in LA that scared teams off from renting All-Stars, and it was probably the Paul George trade to OKC that inspired more teams to try them again.

This leads to Kawhi and Jimmy. Both of their teams have gotten better since acquiring them, but everyone is keeping close tabs on the situation. Much like George, many believe Kawhi has his eyes set on Los Angeles, while Butler is already having problems with his role on the Sixers. How both teams do in the playoffs will definitely play a part in what they choose this summer.

Rentals are calculated risks. Teams know what they’re getting themselves into when they get a player for a season. If the Thunder hadn’t traded for Paul George, they would probably be a mid-tier team right now. If the Lakers hadn’t traded for Dwight Howard, Kobe’s final years probably wouldn’t have amounted to much anyway.

This summer, Bradley Beal could very well be the next star for a team to check out for a season. There’s a real chance he may not want to stay with his hypothetical new team just as much as there’s a real chance he could give them that final championship piece.

If teams are really considering renting Beal, or any other star that could go on the trading block with an expiring deal in the coming years, they have to decide if it’s better to try only to fail or to wonder what could have been.

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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