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Can the Lakers Lure Kevin Durant?

Salary Cap guru Eric Pincus evaluates the dynamics in play for the Lakers in their pursuit of Kevin Durant

Eric Pincus

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The Los Angeles Lakers are nearly through yet another disappointing season, and now have 61 wins combined over the past three years — just slightly ahead of the Golden Warriors’ win-count for the current campaign.

The Lakers’ primary hope for a quick turnaround is luring a pair of top free agents this summer — with the biggest prize of all being Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star forward Kevin Durant.

The challenge for the Lakers will be convincing Durant to leave a contending team to join a squad heading for a third straight lottery appearance.

That’s a hurdle the Lakers may not be able to overcome.

Two Max Slots

The NBA’s national television deal will push the salary cap to at least $90 million next season, up from the current year’s $70 million.  The spike in league income could enable over 20 teams to have at least one max slot for a free agent like Durant.

To the Lakers’ favor, they are on the short list of four or five teams with room for two mid-tier, maximum-salaried players.

Durant is in the second max tier for veterans with seven to nine years of experience.  His starting salary will jump from the $20 million he’s earning from the Thunder this season, to approximately $26 million.

The Lakers would be in position to pay Durant, and still have at least $30 million to spend.

The top available players could include LeBron James (player option), Al Horford, DeMar DeRozan (player option), Hassan Whiteside, Andre Drummond (restricted), Bradley Beal (restricted), Nicolas Batum, Mike Conley, Harrison Barnes (restricted) and Ryan Anderson, among others.

James will presumably return to the Cleveland Cavaliers (although nothing in the NBA is a true lock).  Restricted free agents are difficult to acquire, given their current teams have the right of first refusal.

Contracts for lower-tier max players like Whiteside, Barnes, Beal and Drummond can start as high as roughly $21 million.  James is in the highest range, starting at near $30 million, but most prime free agents are in the same middle bracket as Durant.

While the city of Los Angeles and the Lakers’ voluminous, international fanbase are assets, the franchise has not been successful in landing high-level free agents in recent years like LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, Greg Monroe, Carmelo Anthony and James.

Ultimately the timing just wasn’t right, with Kobe Bryant at the tail end of his career and the Lakers’ youth movement still in its infancy.

Youthful Core

The Lakers do have an emerging core of players, featuring guards D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson, and forwards Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. and Anthony Brown, but they are all just beginning to establish themselves in the NBA.

The team may also have the chance to add another high-level, young prospect in June’s 2016 NBA Draft, with LSU’s Ben Simmons or Duke’s Brandon Ingram as the early consensus top two picks.

The first challenge for the Lakers will be to get through May’s draft lottery to keep their selection.  They currently have 55.8 percent odds at a top-three pick, as the second-worst overall team in the league.  If the lottery balls drop the Lakers to fourth or below, their selection will be conveyed to the Philadelphia 76ers to close out the ill-fated Steve Nash trade.

It’s presumptive to assume Durant would jump ship for the Lakers, even if they signed an All-Star center like Horford, to join Simmons, Russell, Randle and Clarkson, etc.

Durant will be 28 years old before next season, and may be too impatient to bank on the Lakers’ core maturing ahead of schedule.

Trade the Kids?

If the Lakers are truly driven to land Durant, they may be better served to package some of their young players, and possibly the 2016 pick (after the draft), for a high-level veteran.

Guessing the trade market is far trickier than looking at a list of known free agents.

Targets like DeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento Kings), Jimmy Butler (Chicago Bulls), Jeff Teague (Atlanta Hawks) or Khris Middleton (Milwaukee Bucks) in June could make the Lakers more appealing to free agents in July.

For example, if the Lakers were able to move veterans Lou Williams and Nick Young, along with Randle and their 2016 first-round pick to Sacramento for Cousins, the Lakers would still have almost $60 million in spending power to build around Cousins, Russell, Nance, Brown and Clarkson (a restricted free agent with a $2.7 million cap hold).

Durant would give the Lakers more serious consideration, provided the team already had an All-Star like Cousins in the fold — although guessing in March what he chooses in July is foolhardy.

Durant One-Plus-One

As recently detailed by Basketball Insiders’ Tommy Beer, Durant has incentive to sign a two-year contract this season, with an opt out in the second year (often called a one-plus-one).

The NBA’s salary cap is expected to make yet another jump in 2017, exactly when Durant reaches 10 years of NBA experience.

If Durant signs a long-term deal this summer, he’ll earn in the $27-28 million range in 2017-18.  Opting out of a one-plus one, Durant would be eligible to sign a deal starting at roughly $36 million.

Durant may like the idea of locking in a secure multi-year contract, but the economics suggest a one-plus-one is the way to go.

Doing so in Oklahoma City would give the Russell Westbrook/Serge Ibaka/Durant core one last run before all three hit free agency in 2017.

Durant could also choose to take a one-plus-one with another team, but that franchise would need about $36 million in cap space, limiting spending power, even with a second-straight salary cap spike.

What specifically drives Durant’s decision remains to be seen.  He may prefer to lock in long-term money.

Additionally, the NBA and the NBA Players Union can both opt out the current Collective Bargaining Agreement before the 2017-18 season.  Any projections beyond next season assumes a new deal is reached with similar terms, which may not be the case.

Does Byron Scott Help Land Durant?

Scott has coached the Lakers to obscurity through his tenure with the Lakers.  He hasn’t had a viable roster with a massive spate of injuries through his first year, and this season’s group is largely inexperienced — while Bryant is clearly a diminished player as he goes through his NBA farewell tour.

How much Scott has helped or hindered in the development of Russell, Clarkson and Randle may prove immaterial, if the right coach helps recruit top talent.  Former Thunder coach Scott Brooks has an established relationship with Durant.  The Lakers need to consider Brooks as a possible draw.  Scott has one more season on his contract, but the Lakers were willing to get out of their deals with Mike D’Antoni and Mike Brown early.

If Brooks is the path to Durant, then the team needs to move on from Scott, despite his long relationship with the team-owning Buss family.

Wait Until 2017?

Durant is the closest available player in star power to the retiring Bryant.  No other free agent is close, unless James decides to abandon Cleveland for a second time.

If Durant choses to stay with Oklahoma City on a one-plus-one, the Lakers may spend conservatively enough to maintain roughly $36 million in space for the summer of 2017.

At that point, the list of stars grows to include the Los Angeles Clippers’ Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, along with Westbrook and possibly Durant.

Instead, in the absence of Durant, the Lakers may choose to pursue players like DeRozan and Whiteside.

Competition will be tough this summer.  The Lakers hold some advantages but they may not be enough for the franchise to make a great leap forward.

Eric Pincus is a Senior Writer for Basketball Insiders, with a focus on the business side of the game.

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NBA PM: Greek Freak Off to an MVP-Caliber Start

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the Bucks’ MVP and looks primed to be in the actual MVP race this season.

James Blancarte

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The NBA season is officially underway. Although each team has only played a few games so far, it has helped illuminate where many teams and players are in their development. For example, last night’s game in Oklahoma City gave a glimpse into how the Thunder will handle a late-game situation now that the team has three previous number one options. In the final minute, Russell Westbrook scored two of the Thunder’s last three baskets and assisted Carmelo Anthony on the final basket just before Andrew Wiggins hit a game-winning buzzer beater from well beyond the arc.

After three games, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s individual development has been one of the most exciting storylines to follow. A number of positive and far-reaching questions can be asked of Giannis. What is the ceiling for him? Can a player of his considerable talents continue to improve after winning Most Improved Player last season? Remember, Giannis was drafted in 2013 and is still only 22 years old.

When told in August that although he could win most valuable player, he could not also win most improved player as well, he responded with a simple, yet telling response.

“Why not?” Antetokounmpo responded.

While he continued to be lighthearted and moved on to the next topic, it’s fair to ask, “why not?” when it comes to Giannis. Through three regular season games, he is averaging 38.3 points, five assists, 9.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. These averages will likely regress to more sustainable numbers as the season continues. For now, however, his averages are in elite territory. In addition, his ability to impact the game is already getting to the point where LeBron James may be the only other player who can similarly fill up the stat lines while physically terrorizing opponents on both the offensive and defensive end of the court.

When asked who the “biggest freak in the NBA” is, Giannis elaborated that it was James due to his ability to impose himself on the game.

“The things [James] does, the veteran leadership he brings to the team, how big he is, how quick, how strong,” Giannis stated. “And at the end of the day, how smart he is. He can put his team in the right spots, make the right decision.”

In Saturday night’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers, Giannis willed his team to victory. It was Giannis demonstrating how big, strong and smart he was, putting his team on his shoulders and carrying them to an impressive win.
With less than a minute left in a close game, Giannis closed in with a well-timed double team on Damian Lillard and came away with a clean steal. The steal got the Bucks the ball back and Giannis was fouled, which put him on the free throw line. Unfortunately, he came up short on both attempts and the Bucks remained a point behind.

Despite missing the free throws, Giannis came up huge on the very next play. Giannis took on C.J McCollum one-on-one at the top of the key and created yet another steal. He then leaked out to receive the pass for a breakaway dunk that quickly gave the Bucks the lead with 11.4 seconds remaining.

On the next play, when Jusuf Nurkic set a high screen and roll, he received the pass on the roll and headed to the basket. Giannis’ primary responsibility was the shooter in the corner and yet he read the action correctly and was ready and waiting at the rim for Nurkic. Giannis times Nurkic’s shot perfectly and rejected him at the rim, which effectively ended the game in favor of the Bucks.

Giannis’ ability as defensive Swiss Army Knife was instrumental in the Bucks’ close win over Portland. In addition, Giannis has also made further improvements in an area of his that has received a lot of attention over the years. He continues to shoot a below average three-point percentage for his career (27.6) and has had a rocky start to this season as well (16.7). It’s likely that Giannis’ three-point shooting will be a significant limitation in his game for the foreseeable future. However, over his career, Giannis has shown an ability to improve his shooting percentage on two-point shots consistently, especially shots from 0-3 feet and 3-10 feet, per basketball-reference. As Giannis has gotten stronger and more explosive, he has developed a strong desire to attack opponents off the dribble and absorb contact at the rim. Whether he blows by his opponent outright or scores through opponents at the rim, Giannis has developed into an offensive force that few players in the league could hope to slow down.

In addition to his scoring, Giannis continues to display his unique ability to handle the ball in transitions and run the Bucks’ offense in the half court as a point forward. This sort of ability separates Giannis from the other elite wings in the league who don’t have the skill or vision to act as a primary playmaker. Giannis is doing much of what he did last year, but seems more aggressive and physically dominant through the first three games of this season. That sort of improvement of course puts Giannis in the MVP discussion (though it is incredibly early in the season to even start this sort of discussion).

Giannis was recently asked about his ability to win the MVP and wasn’t shy about his desire to win the prestigious award.

“I’m going to be one of the players that hopefully dominates the game. But I’ve got to still make sure that my team wins, that my teammates get better,” Giannis stated. “I’ve set the goal since the last game against Toronto last year, at the playoffs. I want to be the MVP this year.”

What helps solidify Giannis’ ability to be such a strong MVP candidate is also what makes his team less dangerous. The Bucks are woefully dependent on their star and, at least for now, lack the necessary depth to be a true contender in the East.

Through three regular season games, it’s clear that the Bucks will only go as far as Giannis can take them. And that is the key to Giannis’ budding MVP campaign. Let’s take a look at last year’s top five MVP candidates. Last year’s winner, Westbrook, has two new star-caliber players (Paul George and Carmelo Anthony) to share the spotlight, and the ball, with. James Harden is sharing the ball with Chris Paul, who is currently struggling with a knee injury. LeBron James and the Cavaliers are almost exclusively concerned with the postseason. Kawhi Leonard is similarly crucial to the San Antonio Spurs on offense and defense but has lingering health concerns and has yet to play this season. Finally, Isaiah Thomas is coming off a major hip injury and is not projected to play until January.

With so much uncertainty, Giannis has the opportunity to continue to draw attention as not only the most important player on the Bucks but perhaps the most valuable player in the league. Giannis’ early play this season indicates that this is possible. Despite his early-season outburst, Giannis is giving deference to LeBron James — though he admits he hopes to reach James’ level at some point in the future.

“Definitely [James is] the best player in the NBA. For a few years to come,” Giannis stated. “But I think a lot of players are getting better. Even myself. And hopefully one day we can get to that spot from him.”

Perhaps Giannis will take the spot as the best player in the NBA as early as this season. Considering how dominant he has been so far this season, it’s fair to ask “why not?”

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Wright Primed To Take Next Step With Raptors

Third year Utah alum Delon Wright is showing flashes of what he can do in an expanded role for Toronto.

Spencer Davies

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Backup point guards are essential to a team’s success.

They’re the floor generals of the second unit. They create for themselves to score. They collapse defenses in order for the others to get opportunities.

In some cases, these players perform so well that they outgrow the role they provide and force their way into the starting five—on that same team or elsewhere. Just look at past examples: Darren Collison, Eric Bledsoe, Reggie Jackson, Dennis Schroder, etc. The list goes on.

Kyle Lowry was 20 years old when he was drafted late in the first round of the 2006 NBA Draft by the Memphis Grizzlies. He studied the position behind veteran guards Chucky Atkins and Damon “Mighty Mouse” Stoudamire.

But even after showing promise in his rookie season, management decided to take Mike Conley Jr. the very next year. Though the two were about even in playing time, it was clear the Grizzlies favored youth over anything else, so in 2009, Lowry was dealt with the Houston Rockets in a three-way trade at the deadline.

At this point, Lowry had started in only 30 games over two-and-a-half seasons, so the keys to the car weren’t ready for him just yet. Aaron Brooks was a unique talent that Rick Adelman loved to throw out there along with Tracy McGrady and Kevin Martin.

Brooks started all 82 games in the 2009-10 campaign and blossomed into a scoring machine. He was shooting the lights out that year, and because of that, it was tough to sit him. Lowry still took advantage of his playing time, though, with plenty of floor run. He averaged nearly 14 points and seven assists per 36 minutes.

To the misfortune of his teammate and the advantage to Lowry the next season, Brooks struggled mightily with the jump shot that made him so deadly. After 34 games, the Rockets moved him in a deal to Phoenix for Goran Dragic and a first-round pick. Dragic was on his way to carving his niche in the league, but it opened up a door for Lowry to really take hold as “quarterback” of the team.

Circumstances arose once again, however. Houston had let go of Adelman and hired Kevin McHale in June 2011. Lowry and his new head coach did not have the same rapport. He unfortunately suffered from a bacterial infection and missed out on the beginning of the season, and towards the end, the emergence of Dragic led to his demise.

That summer, the Rockets sent Lowry to the Toronto Raptors for Gary Forbes and a future first-rounder. Once again, it was a fresh start for him, but also a brand new team with a different head coach.

It didn’t take long for the man to realize his true potential there. Aside from shuffling a bit with Jose Calderon as the starter in Toronto, Lowry found a home. The jump he made between that season and the next one was impressive.

Lowry got paid after that 2013-14 season and re-signed with the Raptors for four years. He earned three All-Star appearances and—aside from the postseason disappointments—led the team to new heights with his fellow All-Star backcourt partner DeMar DeRozan.

Toronto and its star point guard agreed to a three-year, $100 million deal over the summer to keep him running the show and to honor that contract well as he has always had. But now there’s somebody behind Lowry waiting to break out, and could very well be the one who gets the torch passed to him.

Delon Wright is ready to make his mark. When he entered the league, he was a reserve behind Cory Joseph and had to observe and soak in the experience of NBA life. For some rookies, they get the chance immediately, and for the others, they have to wait their turn. In this case, it was the latter.

Playing the waiting game ended up working out well for him. In the offseason, the Raptors went out and traded Joseph for C.J. Miles due to the loss of DeMarre Carroll. It was a move that not only addressed a need for depth at the wing but also opened a door for Wright.

So here we are, two games in. The Raptors are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents by 51 points. In those combined, Wright has received 55 minutes of playing time.

Despite the competition being the rebuilding Chicago Bulls and a Philadelphia 76ers team trying to find an identity, he looks extremely comfortable. You don’t want to take too much out a sample size as small as that, but neither the numbers nor the eye test lies.

Wright has played the third-most minutes on the team thus far. He’s done a great job on both sides of the floor but has truly made a difference on the defensive end. As of now, the Raptors are only allowing 83 points per 100 possessions with him on the hardwood. When he’s not, that number blows up to 98.9 using the same scale.

Offensively he’s almost been just as good. Wright has been aggressive as a facilitator and as a shooter, putting up 13- and 14-point games early on. He dished out five assists in the season opener and nabbed five rebounds in the second game. He has a higher offensive rating than both Lowry and DeRozan.

According to NBA.com, Toronto’s net rating with him off the court (12.9) is the second lowest to his lifelong teammate Jakob Poeltl (12.8). Take it with a grain of salt because it’s one week into the season, but Wright has the best net rating in the league (37.6) among those playing at least 25 minutes per game.

Call it garbage time play or whatever you want: He has the tools to succeed. The stature is there. The intangibles are evident. It’s all about putting it together over the course of an entire season.

If the trend continues, there’s no way Casey can keep him off the floor for long. We don’t know where Wright’s career could go. It’s way too early to tell. The Raptors are likely hoping for him to be the successor after this era of basketball has come and gone.

Lowry is the man in Toronto, as is DeRozan. Nothing is changing that anytime soon. But rest assured, Wright’s primed to take a big step this year and it’s going to be fun to watch.

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NBA AM: Was Watson Setup To Fail or Just Ill Equipped?

Was Phoenix’s Earl Watson setup to fail or did he just not have the tools and experience to overcome the tenuous job of a rebuild?

Steve Kyler

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Set Up To Fail? Maybe

The Phoenix Suns have parted ways with head coach Earl Watson just three games into the 2017-18 season. Associate head coach Jay Triano is expected to be his replacement as interim head coach.

Some have suggested that Watson was set up to fail, but let’s be honest for a minute. Was Watson really the best option the Suns had after parting ways with Jeff Hornacek during the 2015-16 season? Watson was well liked and that an easy and intoxicating concept, but even as an interim coach Watson won just nine games in 33 tries.

It’s not as if Watson took the team in a totally new direction; the Suns were a bad team when they took the gamble on Watson. Moving the needle wasn’t exactly likely when the massive inexperienced Watson took over the team. Is anyone really surprised he couldn’t make it work?

Sure, the roster and the priorities of the franchise were an uphill climb, but let’s be real for a minute: The Suns couldn’t have expected Watson to have the tools to bring it all together. Rebuilding is hard all by itself, and doing so with a head coach that has never coached isn’t exactly smart. In fact, it rarely works out.

It’s easy to say Watson was set up to fail, but equally easy to say he never had the experience to believe he’d be successful. It was a gamble on the Suns’ part, a gamble that ran its course.

So What Next?

The Suns are not very good, as three straight blow out losses have proven. It’s possible that Triano can make enough changes to at least get the Suns to compete, but the word in NBA circles was the Suns locker room had basically quit after three games, so Triano’s task may be tough for even a coach that been around the block a few times.

Like Watson, Triano is incredibly likable and approachable, but unlike Watson, Triano has experience. Triano has experience not only as a head coach, having coached the Toronto Raptors for three years, but he is the head coach of the Canadian National Team and has been on the Team USA and Portland Trail Blazers staff as an assistant. While Triano’s stint in Toronto looked a lot like Watson’s stint in Phoenix, the big difference is Triano has been around a lot more situations and may be better equipped to put a system and structure in place that could yield improvement, or at least that’s the newest bet the Suns are making.

With Triano at the helm, it’s also likely that the front office will have a better relationship than what’s emerged in Watson’s time in Phoenix. General Manager Ryan McDonough and Watson haven’t exactly been on the same page, and Watson had grown emboldened enough to make it clear in the media somethings were not in his control, often taken subtle shots at decisions made by the front office.

It is rare for inexperience and dysfunction to yield success. The hope is Triano will smooth some of that over.

“I Dont wanna be here.”

As news of Watson’s firing began to leak Suns guard Eric Bledsoe, who had a very good relationship with Watson, took to Twitter to announce “I Dont wanna be here.”

Bledsoe has been a constant name in NBA trade circles for the last few years, and with Watson out of the picture, Bledsoe seems to be looking for the door too.

The 27-year-old Bledsoe has two more seasons remaining on his deal, $14.5 million this season and $15 million owed for next season. The Suns have listened to offers on Bledsoe off and on for some time, with many in NBA circles believing this would be the season the Suns would finally trade him.

With Watson, a long-time champion of Bledsoe, out of the picture, there is a belief that Bledsoe’s role is going to decrease, which is likely why Bledsoe took to Twitter.

Pulling off a trade three games into the season seems highly unlikely, especially given that Bledsoe has likely killed his own trade value. There have been several teams over the last two seasons with interest in Bledsoe; the question is, will the Suns close this chapter or try and see if Bledsoe can help them right the ship under Triano and rebuild some trade value when the trade market opens up in December?

$41.11 Million

Of the Phoenix Suns’ $85.448 million in guaranteed contracts, $41.11 million belongs to Bledsoe, injured guard Brandon Knight and center Tyson Chandler. You can toss $10 million more for injured forward Jared Dudley. While Bledsoe and Chandler have played in all three regular-season games, both are not part of the long-term future of the team.

The question becomes, what role will they play under Triano?

The Suns are truly a tale of two teams. There is the old veteran squad that is clogging up the top of the Suns salary cap chart, and there are rookie scale players that are the future, and not coincidentally the players performing at their worst so far this season.

Will the Suns just let the $41.11 million owed at the top just sit, or will the Suns try and fire-sale some of those veterans? The belief is they would like to do the latter.

As much as people may want to say Watson was set up to fail, the evidence in the situation is he was never proven enough to succeed.

The Suns are in a dreadful no-man’s land of bad contracts and underperforming players. Maybe a more proven established coach could have set this situation in a better direction, but the reality is Watson was never experienced enough to handle a rebuild like this because getting the most out of players while losing is a very tough job even for the most experienced of coaches.

Watson, like many before him, will find another job in the NBA. Maybe like Triano who is replacing him, he can take the lessons learned in Phoenix and become a better coach somewhere down the road and get a shot with a team that wouldn’t require as much as the Suns desperately need.

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