Last week, Basketball Insiders dove into NBA nostalgia by looking back at previous NBA drafts of recent memory, starting from 2014 all the way to 2017. Over the next two weeks, we’re going to be changing the formula up a tad. Instead of looking at entire drafts, we’re looking at the individual picks – starting from number one to number 14 – and how they have fared over the last 11 years.
In this new series, we’ll be going over which particular selections over the last ten years were hits, which were misses, which were square in the middle between the previously mentioned two terms, and who were the role players. Today, we’re starting at the top – the first overall pick.
The number one pick in the draft is the golden ticket. There aren’t a whole lot of better fortunes that a team can receive than winning the draft lottery. It can alter your fortunes on the flip of a dime. It doesn’t always happen, but for obvious reasons, a team’s future prospects usually get better the day when they pick first in the NBA draft. Speaking of obvious, most number one picks are hits because they were selected number one for a reason. Over the last 10 years, that’s been the case although there have been a few odd instances since 2009.
In order for a player who was picked number one to be deemed a hit, he has to meet one or two of the following criteria.
1. Has he been the best player – or at least one of the best players – in his draft?
2. Has (or had) his team’s fortunes changed for the better because of him?
Blake Griffin – Los Angeles Clippers – 2009
Not many players in NBA history have gone through the ups and downs that Blake’s had to since being drafted by the Clippers 11 years ago.
In that time, the following has happened to him.
1. He missed his first season because of a preseason knee injury
2. He became the NBA’s most entertaining highlight reel as a rookie
3. He evolved his game towards becoming an MVP candidate by the age of 25
4. He was the poster boy for one of the biggest underachieving teams in NBA history
5. He injured himself so many times that he fell off everyone’s radar
6. He had a redeem season in his first full year in Detroit
7. He now is regarded as an awful contract as injuries have continued to keep him off the court
Craziest of all, he just turned 31.
All in all, Blake has absolutely been a hit as the number one overall pick in his draft. He’s more often been either the best player or one of the best players on the floor when he’s playing. Fellow 2009 draftees Stephen Curry and James Harden have made more substantial impacts on the league, but Griffin has done everything in his power to live up to the hype.
The only question that remains is where he goes from here. The more surgeries he gets, the less likely we are to see prime Blake come back. Even before his most recent surgeries, Blake was no longer the freak athlete during his heyday in LA. That’s why he deserves more recognition for accommodating his game to make up for his lost athleticism. If Blake loses even more of his natural abilities, let’s cross our fingers that he has a career much akin to Grant Hill’s when Hill faced a similar impediment in his 30’s.
John Wall – Washington Wizards – 2010
Not a lot of point guards have come into the NBA with the same amount of hype that John Wall did back in 2010. He was fast. He could jump. He had great vision. He had all the makings of a franchise floor general. For Washington, a team that was fresh off a locker room scandal the year before, any sort of youthful infusion was a welcome one, and they got one in Wall. Ten years later, the verdict on the Kentucky alum as of now is satisfactory.
Wall’s averaged a career 19/9.2/4.3 on 43/32/78 splits over his nine-year career, and had it not been for ongoing injuries over the last few years, those numbers could have been even higher and the Wizards could have had deeper playoff runs.
Wall has been a 5-time All-Star, he’s been borderline unstoppable when he’s at the top of his game and he’s led the Wizards to the most success they’ve had since the days of Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld. Paul George has had a better overall career, but those accolades alone are indisputable and certify him both as a hit and as one of the draft’s best players.
When he comes back, Wall’s got a lot of hurdles to clear to prove he’s still got it. Coming off season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his left heel is one thing. To then tear your Achilles by the flukiest of circumstances is a whole different realm and not to mention, unlucky. The worst part is, in his own words, Wall opted for the surgery in hopes of avoiding tearing his Achilles. Well, the worst will hopefully have passed when he returns next season (whenever that starts), and then, Wall, even though he’s shown himself as a star already, will have something to prove.
Kyrie Irving – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2011
Irving’s career arc is a little odd. His first three years in the league, he was putting up impressive numbers on Cleveland teams that went absolutely nowhere. Then, he became the perfect second-in-command to LeBron James when he returned to the Cavaliers for the next three years. He even won a championship in that time. Irving then decided he was tired of being the second banana and opted to become the guy in Boston. He soon grew sick of that too and went back to being a partner-in-crime when he decided to team up with Kevin Durant in Brooklyn.
Even if he’s now paired with his best friend and playing for his hometown team, no one really knows what Kyrie wants except Kyrie. Off the court, he embodies being an enigma. On the court, there’s no denying that he is one of the league’s best scorers.
Putting the ball in the bucket has never been an issue for Kyrie. For his career, he’s averaged 22.4 points on 46/39/88 splits. He already has plenty of playoff success to his name, and, should he and KD avoid the injury bug, there should be more to come. “Should” being the operative word.
Kyrie may never be the first option on a championship team, but he has definitely proven himself both as a winner and as an unguardable scorer. That makes him well worth the billing of a number one pick, even if he too has not shown himself to be the best player from his respective draft.
Anthony Davis – New Orleans Pelicans – 2012
We’ve discussed how previous players mentioned have proven themselves to be hits even if they haven’t been the best players in the draft. With Davis, he’s been a hit because he improved the fortunes of his team (at least as well as he could have) and he is the best player from the 2012 draft.
Davis has a once-in-a-generation physique that gives both him and his team so many advantages on the floor. His long-limbed body combined with his body control makes him incredibly hard to stop on the offensive end and impossible to avoid on the defensive end. Not many bigs can say that they averaged over 20/10 as well as two blocks at least one steal a game for his entire career, but Davis can.
Things didn’t work out as well as they should have in New Orleans, but AD did the best he could for them. He also probably could have handled his exit from the Pelicans better, but both sides are better off in the end. Now that he’s in Los Angeles, his efforts are going to really good use for a change. The Lakers have taken a huge jump this year, and Davis deserves much of the credit for that.
There doesn’t really need to be much more explaining as to why Davis is a hit. He’s an all-time talent who should finally taste some playoff success when the season resumes. Although, much like Irving, we haven’t seen if he can be the number one guy on a title team. Time will tell if we even get the chance.
Karl-Anthony Towns – Minnesota Timberwolves – 2015
See this is where things get a little muddled. Since entering the league, Towns has demonstrated that he may very well be the best player from his draft. In regards to if he’s made his team better, well that’s a loaded question. Towns is an offensive phenomenon. He can score from pretty much anywhere on the court. He’s also a talented passer and can get after the ball on the boards. Yet somehow, Minnesota has been one of the worst teams in the league throughout most of his tenure.
Basketball is most certainly a team game, so there’s accountability to go around for everyone, but Towns’ shortcomings on the defensive side are certainly worth noting, especially since he has the makings of a rim protector. Yet for some reason, he just isn’t one. As the Timberwolves’ leading man, he has to prove himself on that end if they are to go anywhere.
Even so, Towns was the sensible pick at No. 1 for Minnesota, and he’s still a wonder on the offensive end. In a lot of ways, he’s the perfect center for the modern NBA. With the growing emphasis on stretch bigs, many teams like having one who is efficient. Towns, in spite of whatever is ailing him on the defensive end, has become incredibly efficient as a shooter.
Not many players can boast that they are in the 50/40/90 club. For his career, Towns has a 53/40/83 for his career splits. There’s so much that Towns does right that it’s painful to see it not translate into anything. Minnesota’s future overall remains murky, but Towns’ brilliant future is certainly not.
Ben Simmons – Philadelphia 76ers – 2016
Simmons is quite a divisive prospect. What he’s good at, he is absolutely incredible. What he’s bad at, he’s just flat-out awful. Luckily for Philly, the good definitely outweighs the bad overall. That does not cancel out the bad. Simmons is already on a superstar-like level with the positives he brings to the court, but the weaknesses to his game limit his ceiling as a player.
Simmons came into the league with great physical advantages. Even for how tall he is, Simmons runs like a gazelle and has excellent vision. As an oversized point guard, he brings so many mismatches. Contrary to what his skeptics will tell you, he has actually improved in some areas since entering the league. The one aspect of his game that actually has come along pretty nicely is his overall defense. With hit footwork and statute, he’s evolved into one of the league’s better defenders. Is there anyone questioning if he’s going to make an All-Defense team?
It’s just the shooting that’s the problem. We can’t even say he’s a bad shooter because bad shooters at least attempt to shoot jumpers. That’s something Simmons flat-out refuses to do. He can do pretty much everything else on the court on offense except that. In the modern NBA, superstars can’t get away with that.
As of now, he is atop of his fellow 2016 draftees – which makes him a hit – but if nothing improves in the shooting department, then how much better will be than them when he hangs it up?
Zion Williamson – New Orleans Pelicans – 2019
There’s not really much to say about Zion because he only played in 19 games this season. In those 19 games, he’s looked not only like the insanely-hyped prospect we believed he would be going in, but he also might be the most dominant rookie big we’ve seen since Shaquille O’Neal.
His massive physique and his ultra-athletic body makes him a cannonball in the open floor. He’s already intimidating defenses and as long as he doesn’t get hurt again, he should be a force of nature. New Orleans previously had a force of nature just the year before. The difference this time is that it looks like they’ve built around their young superstar the right way.
The future is bright again in the Big Easy, and Zion is at the center of it.
Anthony Bennett – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2013
When NBA bust came into people’s minds, the first names were Kwame Brown, Darko Milicic and Greg Oden. That was until the Cleveland Cavaliers shocked the masses when they took Bennett first overall.
In their one single solitary defense – and it’s not a good one – the 2013 draft did not have a good crop of talent upfront coming in. Outside of Victor Oladipo and CJ McCollum, no one from the draft’s top 10 has panned out to be anything more than a complementary player. Amazingly, pretty much everyone else who came to the NBA after being drafted has had a better career than Anthony Bennett.
At least the likes of Brown, Milicic and Oden actually did something when they played. Bennett showed us absolutely nothing outside of the occasional electrifying dunk. Those guys at least played a fair amount of time in the league. That’s something Bennett didn’t do as he hasn’t played in the league since 2017. For that, he has earned the title as the biggest bust in NBA history.
The Middle of the Road
Andrew Wiggins – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2014
Wiggins may have played his first NBA game with the Timberwolves, but for the first month of his NBA career, he technically was on the Cavs. Anyway, it’s difficult to label how Wiggins has fared as the first overall pick. He’s been able to put up pretty gaudy numbers since coming into the league, but his best numbers have never contributed to any sort of success.
Outside of the lone year they had Jimmy Butler, the Wolves hve remained among the NBA’s worst teams with many pinning the blame on Wiggins’ failure to evolve into a star. Even though Wiggins has shown improvements as a playmaker this season, the results have still remained the same to the point where Minnesota had to trade a first-rounder to unload him to Golden State for D’Angelo Russell. Lucky for him, this new situation gives Wiggins to prove he can be what many don’t think he is – an effective contributor.
It’s probably too late for Wiggins to be deemed a hit because he’s never been a star and his teams as a whole have almost never won with him at the forefront, but now that he’s with the Warriors, he does have the chance to prove he can help a winner. That might just be the perfect role for him.
Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns – 2018
It’s a little harsh to not deem Ayton a hit, but thus far, he hasn’t exactly shown enough to prove he’s going to be a game-changer. Compare him to the likes of Luka Doncic and Trae Young. Those two look like they are going to important fixtures in the league for years to come. Ayton has yet to prove he’s on their level. In his defense, it’s only been two years.
Besides, in those two years, Ayton has shown promise. In his second year, he’s averaging 19/12 on a cool efficiency of 55 percent shooting from the field. The problem is that it hasn’t led to much. The 25-game suspension early on this season didn’t help. The Suns playing arguably their best basketball of the season during that suspension doesn’t either. Now, the Suns are out of the playoff picture which means Ayton will need another year to prove he was worth picking number one.
Again, it’s only been two years, and it’s not his fault other young juggernauts from his draft have exploded onto the league so quickly. For now, we can’t call him a hit until we see results that justify that classification.
The Role Players
Markelle Fultz – Philadelphia 76ers – 2017
So Fultz was most definitely a bust in Philly. He did pretty much nothing for them and they knew it too. We all know that, in spite of his issues, there’s still plenty of time for him to figure it out and get his career back on track. This season was a step in the right direction even if it wasn’t
Fultz has not been spectacular in Orlando – definitely not good enough to justify being picked number one – but he has been a rotation player on a playoff team. That counts for something. At least he’s proven that he should be in the NBA. That was something that very much remained cloudy when this season started.
This is either going to be the first step towards Fultz reaching his potential or it just might be the first sign of what he is – a starting-caliber point guard. Either way, it’s nice to see that whatever was keeping him out of the league has been resolved now. He can play basketball again, and that’s what’s important.
As we can see, the first overall pick definitely makes a large impact whether it’s negative or positive. If he’s a franchise talent, that changes a team’s outlook for years to come. If he’s a bust, then the team has to look elsewhere following a likely wasted season. If it’s somewhere in between, then the future, while not necessarily golden, is still exciting.
Stay tuned as Basketball Insiders continues to dive into who were the best from each selection over the past 11 years.
The X-Factors: Portland
Spencer Davies continues Basketball Insiders’ “X-Factor” series by looking at potential game-changers for the Portland Trail Blazers when the NBA returns.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
That’s probably an appropriate way to characterize the steam that’s been picking up over the last week regarding the eventual return of the NBA. What the plan exactly will be is yet to be determined, but there are potential scenarios surfacing left and right. And with the NHL officially having a resumption blueprint set in stone, we’re probably not too far away from learning The Association’s fate.
In an effort to prepare ourselves for that day, Basketball Insiders has begun an x-factor series for each team around the current playoff picture. Basically, “if this happens…” or “what if this player is healthy?” type of scenarios are what we’re looking at. Ben Nadeau kicked us off Tuesday with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. Today, we’re going to look at the Portland Trail Blazers, who are in a similar situation out in the Western Conference.
Scratching and clawing for that final seed to make the postseason for the seventh straight season, the Blazers have work to do at 29-37. They’re going to need help in the standings race with several other squads surrounding them chasing after the same thing. Along with the Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, Portland is 3.5 games back of the West’s eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Even the San Antonio Spurs are hanging by a thread with their playoff streak in jeopardy with a four-game hole in the standings.
We can technically call this our first dependent situation. There is going to be a ton of schedule watching around these five teams. It’s all contingent on the NBA’s decision about how to go about a return — a 72-game benchmark, a play-in tournament, straight to the postseason, etc. Who’s going to have an easier schedule? Who’s going to have more games to play and increase their chances?
For example, the Blazers could have six games left to play to make up that gap on the Grizzlies, a team that was next up on their list in a pivotal head-to-head scenario. The Spurs, however, would have nine games to try and right the ship — by far the highest amount of contests in comparison to the four others they’re fighting against. None of this is concrete because we don’t know what solution the league is going to agree upon; that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t come to mind as a hypothetical.
Then, there’s that Damian Lillard guy. You know, the dude that is Portland’s franchise. The man that went on a mid-January to early February eight-game run where he absurdly averaged over 45 points, 9.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds, while nailing 53 percent of both his field goals and three-balls. He averaged 40 minutes in this stretch, quite literally putting the team on his back to keep pace with the surging Grizzlies.
Lillard’s publicly come out and said flat-out that if the league elects to go with the benchmark idea, he wouldn’t participate. He’d gladly support his teammates and join them, just not on the court for games. Speaking with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, the All-Star point guard expressed his desire for a tournament-style setup where there are playoff implications on the line. Suiting up to satisfy certain criteria with no incentive isn’t his preferred method of return. He wants to compete and, considering the effect of rustiness and other unknowns that could play a factor in these hypothetical matchups, Lillard would love for Portland to be the group that knocks others out unexpectedly.
Let’s not forget that the Blazers could have two starting-caliber players back that would’ve made their return from injury at some point this past March, either. Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins have their own specific capabilities that can dramatically improve what the team’s been missing since the beginning of the year.
Nurkic is an outstanding interior presence that brings physicality and finishing ability, as well as a big body to secure rebounds and dare opponents to come into the paint. This is no knock on Hassan Whiteside, who has arguably had the best season of his career as a blocking and boarding machine. It’s more about the lack of depth behind him, which is where Nurkic can step right in without Portland losing its reliability at the five. It’s been a revolving door at backup center for the Blazers, which has allowed the opposition to attack at will and get easy buckets. Nurkic’s return will shut that right off, as well as give the second unit a reliable scoring option.
Collins, his frontcourt partner, was supposed to have a breakout campaign in store for the league. Instead, the athletic third-year big man suffered a dislocated left shoulder just three games into the season. While it has sidelined him since then, he was targeting March as a return target. Obviously, with the league suspending operations, that didn’t happen as planned. But with the calendar turning to June in less than a week, and with his optimism shining through his rehab, it’s probably OK to assume Collins is close to being in the clear for a comeback.
Collins brings things to the table that neither Nurkic nor Whiteside does — an ability to stretch the floor being the most obvious skill that stands out. He can knock down triples at a decent rate and, more importantly, create space for Lillard and CJ McCollum to operate. The 6-foot-11 power forward has quicker foot speed than the other bigs Portland has, too.
Though the Blazers should be plenty excited about Nurkic and Collins’ impending return, they also have to be realistic about how much those two will play. We already mentioned Collins’ shoulder dislocation, but Nurkic hasn’t been on the floor since Mar. 25 of last year. Terry Stotts and his coaching staff will have to pay close attention to each of their minutes. How that whole situation is handled will be crucial to ensure there’s no long-term damage done for any party.
Just like the rest of their competition, the Blazers will have to also monitor how their older veterans handle ramping things back up again. Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza are both in their mid-30s and have taken on a heavy minute load. They are starters who average over 30 minutes per game that just abruptly stopped playing for months. It isn’t going to be easy on anybody, but the younger players can probably recover and restart easier than those seasoned vets.
Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons are likely to come out of this hiatus with the most energy out of anybody simply because they’re the youngest guys on the team. We all know how hungry the dynamic duo of Lillard and McCollum is going to be. It’s exciting to think about.
All we can do now is wait to find out what the next steps are toward a restart.
Luckily for us, that news might not be too far away.
The X-Factors: New Orleans
Ben Nadeau kicks off a new Basketball Insiders series by examining potential game-changers for when the NBA resumes play.
Basketball is back, baby.
Well, sorta. OK, actually, not really. But they’re talking about it. Finally.
Beyond that, they’re apparently making true, meaningful progress. And although the NBA is circling through potential scenarios — bubble games, re-seeding, ignoring conferences, etc. — there’s a very real chance that this shindig gets underway by mid-July.
To celebrate the re-arrival of actual talk and analysis, Basketball Insiders is kicking off its newest series — this time, one that focuses on a real-life hypothetical. The idea of an x-factor is inherently goofy, typically leading to sentences like: “Well, if Player Z hits 43 percent of his three-pointers, they’ll be tough to beat.” And, yeah, duh.
Given the sport-wide break, there are some perfectly valid questions to be asked. For example, with an extra two months off, where does Victor Oladipo’s health stand? If he’s fully healthy, the Indiana Pacers are going to be a whirlwind of a problem for their higher-seeded first-round matchup. Could the return of Jonathan Isaac to the Orlando Magic ensure their postseason place? And, finally, Kevin Durant – a decision that looms large over every other potential proceeding.
But that’s not why we’ve gathered at this particular URL right now – that would be to discuss the New Orleans Pelicans, a franchise that currently finds itself 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Naturally, any chance for success depends on the NBA ratifying a plan that behooves the Pelicans’ hopes. Whether that’s a return to the regular season or a totally-invented play-in series, it doesn’t matter as New Orleans needs some help outside of their own good fortunes.
Should they get the opportunity to control their own fate, there’d be plenty to research and anoint as a Holier Than Thou X-Factor. We could talk about J.J. Redick’s 45.2 percent mark from three-point range or how his 110 postseason games are 28 more than the rest of the roster combined.
Maybe there’d be a paragraph or two on Brandon Ingram’s steady ascent to stardom. Ingram’s post-Los Angeles quest to become a sure-fire No. 1 option has been a compelling narrative, but can he do it when the games matter most? Lonzo Ball, the playmaking point guard, knocked down 21 of his 36 attempts from deep over the final four Pelicans games — if that were a permanent level of consistency for the pass-first general, then that would change everything, too.
And Jrue Holiday, the remaining cornerstone following the departure of Anthony Davis, would get his first chance to anoint himself as a hero in the football-heavy city. Surely, if the Pelicans are to sneak into the altered postseason — and, dare we say it, make some noise — those would be important conditions to quantify.
Still, for all the positives, negatives and worthy storylines out there for New Orleans, not a single one matters as much as Zion Williamson does.
Since the 19-year-old phenom debuted on Jan. 22, the Pelicans went 11-9. It’s not a spectacular showing, but one dragged down by losses to the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers twice. Generally speaking, however, Williamson wasted no time acclimating to the NBA and the numbers speak for themselves: 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 56.9 percent shooting.
The highlights include the 35 points he hung on the Lakers and six other occasions of 25 or more in just 19 games. Moreover, Williamson has only scored under 20 points on three occasions and shot worse than 50 percent twice — once 8-for-18 (44) in the other showing versus Los Angeles and a tough 5-for-19 effort (26.3) against the league-leading Bucks. Of course, if they hobbled into the postseason, they’d have to play those very same Lakers over and over again.
Alas, the so-called chosen one will have his fair share of questions when the season resumes. Remember that 4-for-4 explosion against the San Antonio Spurs in his career debut? Well, he’s just 2-for-9 otherwise, often going entire games without even hoisting from long range. Williamson wasn’t supposed to enter professional basketball as a three-point marksman, but that epic – and believe us, we don’t use that word lightly – introduction might have skewed the outlook.
At Duke, Williamson went just 24-for-71 (33.8 percent) from deep and it’ll be a weak link that follows him – just as it does Ben Simmons – for the time being. Free throws weren’t expected to be a major, glaring issue either as he hit on 64 percent in college and, well, he’s right around the same mark currently. If you ignore 1-for-6 and 3-for-8 showings during a couple of double-digit victories versus the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, that number looks even better too.
But enough about the few cons – of which Williamson has certainly made a focus during his quarantine workouts – what’s the ceiling? And how much should we be pulling for a postseason debut here? In a crazy campaign like this, the added bonus of Williamson-made magic might be a thread worth pulling for – even at the rejection of a Ja Morant-led foray instead.
Needless to say, if the resumed regular scenario arrives and the Pelicans have just five or so attempts to make up a 3.5 game deficit in the standings, Williamson probably wouldn’t play at all. It’s also certainly possible that the rookie was just shaking off the rust before — just ask the aforementioned Oladipo. After taking an entire year to recover from a brutal ruptured tendon, the former All-Star only averaged 13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 39.1 percent shooting, all would-be career-lows.
Bet your bottom dollar, however, that with an extra 60 days of training at full speed under his belt, Oladipo will be closer to 100 percent than ever – a much-needed boost to an already well-rounded Pacers side. Could a trained-up Williamson provide the same type of edge? Upon his debut, one of the few worries that lingered – aside from re-injury – was about his perceived stamina and fatigue. Getting dropped into high-intensity workouts against adults twice your age is no joke, but try it after three months of rehab following a preseason meniscus tear.
With that context, the fact that Williams averaged 20-plus points on nearly 30 minutes per game is a superhero-level accomplishment.
At 37.2 percent, the Pelicans are the NBA’s fourth-best three-point shooting franchise – so even if Williamson doesn’t come back ready to unleash from deep, his team will be. On top of that, New Orleans’ 116.2 points per game are tied for fourth-best, too. Between Williamson, Holiday, Ball, Ingram and Redick, scoring appears to be the least of their issues headed into a restarted season.
But the defensive rating of 111.6 is a cause for concern, the second-worst standing of any team still within arm’s reach of the postseason (Portland, 113.6). Williamson has posted an encouraging mark of 103.1 on that end through 19 games, which also happens to be the highest mark of anybody employed by New Orleans right now.
In fact, Williamson’s multi-position defense and overall athleticism have already left quite the footprint. Since his debut in January, the Pelicans have posted a defensive rating of 109.2 – good enough for the No. 8 spot across the entire league. The Williamson Effect is here to stay and it’ll only improve as the roster meshes and the rookie acclimates even further – that seems to be a foregone conclusion.
If you thought Williamson was impressive coming off a serious injury with no stamina, his elevated play – whether in assumed individual efficiencies or overall team impact – could push the Pelicans into new territory. Elsewhere, there are aspects of New Orleans that deserve attention but none are as postseason-transforming as the second return of Williamson – let us just hope that the NBA provides a stage for the show.
Looking Back At The Draft: The No. 12 Picks
David Yapkowitz assesses the 12th picks made in recent NBA Drafts and identifies the hits, misses and everything in-between.
The further you get into the NBA draft, the harder it is to categorize hits and misses. There aren’t many expectations with later draft picks, especially in the second round. If a player ends up panning out, then great. If they don’t, it’s no big financial loss for the team and they can easily cut ties. When you’re still in the lottery, however, you probably expect a little more than just an average player. Superstars are never guaranteed, especially with late lottery selections. But you probably would expect to have a quality rotation player if not probable starter with a late lottery pick.
Here at Basketball Insiders, we’re continuing our look back at the draft, pick by pick, with each of the No. 12 picks going back the last 10 drafts. Let’s see how those picks have panned out.
Steven Adams – Oklahoma City Thunder – 2013
The OKC Thunder didn’t have a lottery pick in the 2013 draft, but they acquired it from the Houston Rockets as part of the James Harden trade. With Adams, the Thunder certainly hit the mark. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo (who 13 other teams in addition to the Thunder passed on) and Rudy Gobert are players picked after Adams who have fared better.
Adams has become one of the best defensive players and rebounders in the league as well as a great screen setter and roll man in the pick and roll. He plays his role to perfection and is a starting-caliber center. He may not have hit All-Star status, but he is a legit starter and with a lottery pick, that’s probably what you would expect.
Gerald Henderson – Charlotte Bobcats – 2009
I’m going with a hit on this one. Henderson played nearly all of his eight-year career with the Bobcats with the exception of his final two years with the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers respectively. He was unfortunately forced into early retirement due to nagging injury issues.
But for the eight years he was in the NBA, he was a capable scorer and mostly a starting-caliber wing player. As mentioned, with a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you should expect. Henderson averaged double-digits in scoring for most of his career and he shot in the mid-’40s from the field. If not for injuries, he probably would have played in the NBA for a few more years.
Xavier Henry – Memphis Grizzlies – 2010
Going back to the last ten drafts, Henry is the only player picked No. 12 that I would consider to be a miss thus far. He had some hype coming out of Kansas and was expected to be a first-round pick and NBA contributor. He didn’t play much as a rookie with the Grizzlies and was traded to the New Orleans Hornets.
He showed some brief flashes with the Hornets but never really was able to sustain any sort of consistent success. He got hurt during his stint with the Los Angeles Lakers and that pretty much ended his NBA career after five years. He’s had a couple of G League appearances since then but didn’t really show that he was ready for an NBA return.
The Middle of the Road
Taurean Prince – Atlanta Hawks – 2016
Again, for a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you expect your selection to develop into. Prince is here under the middle of the road rather than hits because it’s still too early in his career to determine if he is truly a full-time starter.
With the Hawks, he certainly looked the part. After a so-so rookie year, he stepped up in a big way, becoming a scorer and deadly three-point shooter with solid defensive capabilities. When he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last summer, he was considered to be a big pick up. This season, although he started in 61 of the 64 games he suited up in Brooklyn, his shooting suffered and he wasn’t as effective as he had been in Atlanta. There is still time for him to be considered a hit though.
Jeremy Lamb – Houston Rockets – 2012
Lamb is another player who had some high expectations coming out of college but got off to a rocky start in the NBA. He showed some flashes in Oklahoma City but was wildly inconsistent. But like many players, a change of scenery seemed to be all he needed.
He broke out when he arrived in Charlotte, becoming a solid bench scoring threat and becoming more of a regular in the starting lineup as the years went on.
He rightfully earned himself a solid payday from the Indiana Pacers and he started 42 of the 46 games he played in. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a season-ending injury in February. The Pacers are hoping he can bounce back from that.
Luke Kennard – Detroit Pistons – 2017
Another player that is still a little early to categorize. For now, he appears to be a middle of the ground type player. This is only his third year in the NBA, and he’s shown improvement each year. This season was a breakout year for him.
Since coming to the league, he’s been a very good three-point shooter. This season he was knocking down 39.9 percent of his attempts. His scoring has gone up every season and this year he had broken through to double-digits. He has some injury concerns, and he was actually out when the NBA suspended the season. But if he can bounce back healthy, then he certainly looks like a solid pick at No. 12.
The Role Players
Trey Lyles – Utah Jazz – 2015
In a league where the game is changing and traditional big men aren’t as common as they used to be, Lyles fits right in. Lyles seemingly was another case of a player who needed a change of scenery to find his niche. He wasn’t able to stick in either Utah or Denver, and it wasn’t until this season, his first in San Antonio, that he looked like a capable role player.
Lyles became a regular starter for the Spurs, and again, that’s what you want from a lottery pick. He isn’t included in the hits yet because this is the first season out of his five that he’s shown this. He doesn’t have a big enough sample size. He shot a career-best 38.7 percent from three and if he keeps this up, he’ll be a good pick albeit a late bloomer.
Alec Burks – Utah Jazz – 2011
Burks once looked like he was going to become more than just a solid NBA player. He might have had borderline All-Star potential. At least a starting-caliber shooting guard. But unfortunately for him, his career was seemingly derailed by early injuries.
He has since bounced back though. He’s reinvented himself as a scoring threat off the bench. He put up a career-high 16.1 points per game with the Golden State Warriors in the first half of the season. On a playoff team though, he’s a second unit player and that’s exactly what the 76ers were hoping for when they traded for him. He only had 11 games in Philly before the season was halted, but he’s done well to change his game and be effective despite major injuries.
Too Early to Tell
Dario Saric – Orlando Magic – 2014
I’m introducing a new category here, the too early to tell group. These players either don’t have a big enough sample size, or they have had circumstances that may have hindered their abilities. Saric falls into the latter part of that. He’s been a solid starting stretch-four when he’s gotten consistent playing time. But he struggled to adapt to being thrown around in different roles and inconsistent minutes with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns. He’s a pending restricted free agent who might not figure to be in the Suns future plans. Quite a few teams should consider throwing an offer his way.
Miles Bridges – Charlotte Bobcats – 2018
It’s a bit too early to make any major assessments on Bridges. This is only his second year in the NBA, a season that has been cut short. He mostly came off the bench as a rookie and had a pretty solid year with some aspects he could certainly improve upon. He looked much improved this season albeit some areas he could still work on.
He became a regular starting small forward for the Bobcats this season. He upped his scoring and rebounding and he’s often asked to guard multiple positions. He’s young and has a lot of room to improve. I don’t quite feel comfortable yet placing him in one of the above categories so that’s why he’s too early to tell. The future does look good for him though.
The later you go in the draft, the fewer expectations you put on the player you drafted. Franchise level players are not common, there are only a handful in the league. But at least with first-rounders, and especially a lottery pick, you’d expect to get at least a quality rotation player.
Judging by the production of the all the No. 12 picks for the past ten years, it’s safe to say that they all have, or look like they will pan out in some capacity. Only one of them is a sure-fire miss.