Last week, Basketball Insiders dove into NBA nostalgia by looking back at previous NBA drafts of recent memory, starting from 2014 all the way to 2017. Over the next two weeks, we’re going to be changing the formula up a tad. Instead of looking at entire drafts, we’re looking at the individual picks – starting from number one to number 14 – and how they have fared over the last 11 years.
In this new series, we’ll be going over which particular selections over the last ten years were hits, which were misses, which were square in the middle between the previously mentioned two terms, and who were the role players. Today, we’re starting at the top – the first overall pick.
The number one pick in the draft is the golden ticket. There aren’t a whole lot of better fortunes that a team can receive than winning the draft lottery. It can alter your fortunes on the flip of a dime. It doesn’t always happen, but for obvious reasons, a team’s future prospects usually get better the day when they pick first in the NBA draft. Speaking of obvious, most number one picks are hits because they were selected number one for a reason. Over the last 10 years, that’s been the case although there have been a few odd instances since 2009.
In order for a player who was picked number one to be deemed a hit, he has to meet one or two of the following criteria.
1. Has he been the best player – or at least one of the best players – in his draft?
2. Has (or had) his team’s fortunes changed for the better because of him?
Blake Griffin – Los Angeles Clippers – 2009
Not many players in NBA history have gone through the ups and downs that Blake’s had to since being drafted by the Clippers 11 years ago.
In that time, the following has happened to him.
1. He missed his first season because of a preseason knee injury
2. He became the NBA’s most entertaining highlight reel as a rookie
3. He evolved his game towards becoming an MVP candidate by the age of 25
4. He was the poster boy for one of the biggest underachieving teams in NBA history
5. He injured himself so many times that he fell off everyone’s radar
6. He had a redeem season in his first full year in Detroit
7. He now is regarded as an awful contract as injuries have continued to keep him off the court
Craziest of all, he just turned 31.
All in all, Blake has absolutely been a hit as the number one overall pick in his draft. He’s more often been either the best player or one of the best players on the floor when he’s playing. Fellow 2009 draftees Stephen Curry and James Harden have made more substantial impacts on the league, but Griffin has done everything in his power to live up to the hype.
The only question that remains is where he goes from here. The more surgeries he gets, the less likely we are to see prime Blake come back. Even before his most recent surgeries, Blake was no longer the freak athlete during his heyday in LA. That’s why he deserves more recognition for accommodating his game to make up for his lost athleticism. If Blake loses even more of his natural abilities, let’s cross our fingers that he has a career much akin to Grant Hill’s when Hill faced a similar impediment in his 30’s.
John Wall – Washington Wizards – 2010
Not a lot of point guards have come into the NBA with the same amount of hype that John Wall did back in 2010. He was fast. He could jump. He had great vision. He had all the makings of a franchise floor general. For Washington, a team that was fresh off a locker room scandal the year before, any sort of youthful infusion was a welcome one, and they got one in Wall. Ten years later, the verdict on the Kentucky alum as of now is satisfactory.
Wall’s averaged a career 19/9.2/4.3 on 43/32/78 splits over his nine-year career, and had it not been for ongoing injuries over the last few years, those numbers could have been even higher and the Wizards could have had deeper playoff runs.
Wall has been a 5-time All-Star, he’s been borderline unstoppable when he’s at the top of his game and he’s led the Wizards to the most success they’ve had since the days of Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld. Paul George has had a better overall career, but those accolades alone are indisputable and certify him both as a hit and as one of the draft’s best players.
When he comes back, Wall’s got a lot of hurdles to clear to prove he’s still got it. Coming off season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his left heel is one thing. To then tear your Achilles by the flukiest of circumstances is a whole different realm and not to mention, unlucky. The worst part is, in his own words, Wall opted for the surgery in hopes of avoiding tearing his Achilles. Well, the worst will hopefully have passed when he returns next season (whenever that starts), and then, Wall, even though he’s shown himself as a star already, will have something to prove.
Kyrie Irving – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2011
Irving’s career arc is a little odd. His first three years in the league, he was putting up impressive numbers on Cleveland teams that went absolutely nowhere. Then, he became the perfect second-in-command to LeBron James when he returned to the Cavaliers for the next three years. He even won a championship in that time. Irving then decided he was tired of being the second banana and opted to become the guy in Boston. He soon grew sick of that too and went back to being a partner-in-crime when he decided to team up with Kevin Durant in Brooklyn.
Even if he’s now paired with his best friend and playing for his hometown team, no one really knows what Kyrie wants except Kyrie. Off the court, he embodies being an enigma. On the court, there’s no denying that he is one of the league’s best scorers.
Putting the ball in the bucket has never been an issue for Kyrie. For his career, he’s averaged 22.4 points on 46/39/88 splits. He already has plenty of playoff success to his name, and, should he and KD avoid the injury bug, there should be more to come. “Should” being the operative word.
Kyrie may never be the first option on a championship team, but he has definitely proven himself both as a winner and as an unguardable scorer. That makes him well worth the billing of a number one pick, even if he too has not shown himself to be the best player from his respective draft.
Anthony Davis – New Orleans Pelicans – 2012
We’ve discussed how previous players mentioned have proven themselves to be hits even if they haven’t been the best players in the draft. With Davis, he’s been a hit because he improved the fortunes of his team (at least as well as he could have) and he is the best player from the 2012 draft.
Davis has a once-in-a-generation physique that gives both him and his team so many advantages on the floor. His long-limbed body combined with his body control makes him incredibly hard to stop on the offensive end and impossible to avoid on the defensive end. Not many bigs can say that they averaged over 20/10 as well as two blocks at least one steal a game for his entire career, but Davis can.
Things didn’t work out as well as they should have in New Orleans, but AD did the best he could for them. He also probably could have handled his exit from the Pelicans better, but both sides are better off in the end. Now that he’s in Los Angeles, his efforts are going to really good use for a change. The Lakers have taken a huge jump this year, and Davis deserves much of the credit for that.
There doesn’t really need to be much more explaining as to why Davis is a hit. He’s an all-time talent who should finally taste some playoff success when the season resumes. Although, much like Irving, we haven’t seen if he can be the number one guy on a title team. Time will tell if we even get the chance.
Karl-Anthony Towns – Minnesota Timberwolves – 2015
See this is where things get a little muddled. Since entering the league, Towns has demonstrated that he may very well be the best player from his draft. In regards to if he’s made his team better, well that’s a loaded question. Towns is an offensive phenomenon. He can score from pretty much anywhere on the court. He’s also a talented passer and can get after the ball on the boards. Yet somehow, Minnesota has been one of the worst teams in the league throughout most of his tenure.
Basketball is most certainly a team game, so there’s accountability to go around for everyone, but Towns’ shortcomings on the defensive side are certainly worth noting, especially since he has the makings of a rim protector. Yet for some reason, he just isn’t one. As the Timberwolves’ leading man, he has to prove himself on that end if they are to go anywhere.
Even so, Towns was the sensible pick at No. 1 for Minnesota, and he’s still a wonder on the offensive end. In a lot of ways, he’s the perfect center for the modern NBA. With the growing emphasis on stretch bigs, many teams like having one who is efficient. Towns, in spite of whatever is ailing him on the defensive end, has become incredibly efficient as a shooter.
Not many players can boast that they are in the 50/40/90 club. For his career, Towns has a 53/40/83 for his career splits. There’s so much that Towns does right that it’s painful to see it not translate into anything. Minnesota’s future overall remains murky, but Towns’ brilliant future is certainly not.
Ben Simmons – Philadelphia 76ers – 2016
Simmons is quite a divisive prospect. What he’s good at, he is absolutely incredible. What he’s bad at, he’s just flat-out awful. Luckily for Philly, the good definitely outweighs the bad overall. That does not cancel out the bad. Simmons is already on a superstar-like level with the positives he brings to the court, but the weaknesses to his game limit his ceiling as a player.
Simmons came into the league with great physical advantages. Even for how tall he is, Simmons runs like a gazelle and has excellent vision. As an oversized point guard, he brings so many mismatches. Contrary to what his skeptics will tell you, he has actually improved in some areas since entering the league. The one aspect of his game that actually has come along pretty nicely is his overall defense. With hit footwork and statute, he’s evolved into one of the league’s better defenders. Is there anyone questioning if he’s going to make an All-Defense team?
It’s just the shooting that’s the problem. We can’t even say he’s a bad shooter because bad shooters at least attempt to shoot jumpers. That’s something Simmons flat-out refuses to do. He can do pretty much everything else on the court on offense except that. In the modern NBA, superstars can’t get away with that.
As of now, he is atop of his fellow 2016 draftees – which makes him a hit – but if nothing improves in the shooting department, then how much better will be than them when he hangs it up?
Zion Williamson – New Orleans Pelicans – 2019
There’s not really much to say about Zion because he only played in 19 games this season. In those 19 games, he’s looked not only like the insanely-hyped prospect we believed he would be going in, but he also might be the most dominant rookie big we’ve seen since Shaquille O’Neal.
His massive physique and his ultra-athletic body makes him a cannonball in the open floor. He’s already intimidating defenses and as long as he doesn’t get hurt again, he should be a force of nature. New Orleans previously had a force of nature just the year before. The difference this time is that it looks like they’ve built around their young superstar the right way.
The future is bright again in the Big Easy, and Zion is at the center of it.
Anthony Bennett – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2013
When NBA bust came into people’s minds, the first names were Kwame Brown, Darko Milicic and Greg Oden. That was until the Cleveland Cavaliers shocked the masses when they took Bennett first overall.
In their one single solitary defense – and it’s not a good one – the 2013 draft did not have a good crop of talent upfront coming in. Outside of Victor Oladipo and CJ McCollum, no one from the draft’s top 10 has panned out to be anything more than a complementary player. Amazingly, pretty much everyone else who came to the NBA after being drafted has had a better career than Anthony Bennett.
At least the likes of Brown, Milicic and Oden actually did something when they played. Bennett showed us absolutely nothing outside of the occasional electrifying dunk. Those guys at least played a fair amount of time in the league. That’s something Bennett didn’t do as he hasn’t played in the league since 2017. For that, he has earned the title as the biggest bust in NBA history.
The Middle of the Road
Andrew Wiggins – Cleveland Cavaliers – 2014
Wiggins may have played his first NBA game with the Timberwolves, but for the first month of his NBA career, he technically was on the Cavs. Anyway, it’s difficult to label how Wiggins has fared as the first overall pick. He’s been able to put up pretty gaudy numbers since coming into the league, but his best numbers have never contributed to any sort of success.
Outside of the lone year they had Jimmy Butler, the Wolves hve remained among the NBA’s worst teams with many pinning the blame on Wiggins’ failure to evolve into a star. Even though Wiggins has shown improvements as a playmaker this season, the results have still remained the same to the point where Minnesota had to trade a first-rounder to unload him to Golden State for D’Angelo Russell. Lucky for him, this new situation gives Wiggins to prove he can be what many don’t think he is – an effective contributor.
It’s probably too late for Wiggins to be deemed a hit because he’s never been a star and his teams as a whole have almost never won with him at the forefront, but now that he’s with the Warriors, he does have the chance to prove he can help a winner. That might just be the perfect role for him.
Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns – 2018
It’s a little harsh to not deem Ayton a hit, but thus far, he hasn’t exactly shown enough to prove he’s going to be a game-changer. Compare him to the likes of Luka Doncic and Trae Young. Those two look like they are going to important fixtures in the league for years to come. Ayton has yet to prove he’s on their level. In his defense, it’s only been two years.
Besides, in those two years, Ayton has shown promise. In his second year, he’s averaging 19/12 on a cool efficiency of 55 percent shooting from the field. The problem is that it hasn’t led to much. The 25-game suspension early on this season didn’t help. The Suns playing arguably their best basketball of the season during that suspension doesn’t either. Now, the Suns are out of the playoff picture which means Ayton will need another year to prove he was worth picking number one.
Again, it’s only been two years, and it’s not his fault other young juggernauts from his draft have exploded onto the league so quickly. For now, we can’t call him a hit until we see results that justify that classification.
The Role Players
Markelle Fultz – Philadelphia 76ers – 2017
So Fultz was most definitely a bust in Philly. He did pretty much nothing for them and they knew it too. We all know that, in spite of his issues, there’s still plenty of time for him to figure it out and get his career back on track. This season was a step in the right direction even if it wasn’t
Fultz has not been spectacular in Orlando – definitely not good enough to justify being picked number one – but he has been a rotation player on a playoff team. That counts for something. At least he’s proven that he should be in the NBA. That was something that very much remained cloudy when this season started.
This is either going to be the first step towards Fultz reaching his potential or it just might be the first sign of what he is – a starting-caliber point guard. Either way, it’s nice to see that whatever was keeping him out of the league has been resolved now. He can play basketball again, and that’s what’s important.
As we can see, the first overall pick definitely makes a large impact whether it’s negative or positive. If he’s a franchise talent, that changes a team’s outlook for years to come. If he’s a bust, then the team has to look elsewhere following a likely wasted season. If it’s somewhere in between, then the future, while not necessarily golden, is still exciting.
Stay tuned as Basketball Insiders continues to dive into who were the best from each selection over the past 11 years.
NBA Daily: Ivica Zubac Rounding Into Form For Clippers
David Yapkowitz writes about Ivica Zubac and his strong bubble performances for the Los Angeles Clippers – is he the key for a deep postseason run?
The Los Angeles Clippers have no shortage of star power. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George form one of the most dangerous duos in the NBA, and both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are averaging close to 20 points a game each while coming off the bench.
But there is one player on the roster who might be the team’s X-Factor, one player who could hold the key to being able to withstand the imposing frontline of the Los Angeles Lakers – and that’s Ivica Zubac.
Zubac was once a Laker before he was casually tossed aside to the Clippers at last season’s trade deadline. He had shown flashes of his capabilities with the Lakers but spent most of his first couple of seasons in the league with the Lakers’ G League affiliate. Upon his arrival to the Clippers, he immediately became a key player and has since settled into the starting center role.
His arrival to the NBA’s restart bubble in Orlando was initially held up as he had tested positive for COVID-19. He has since joined the team after a mandatory quarantine period and is looking ready to help the team as they gear up for a playoff run.
He admitted that although he only experienced mild symptoms from the virus, he still felt winded and not quite up to speed as he tried to ease himself back into regular game flow.
“It’s much better, it’s much better than when I got here. I can feel it getting better with each practice, each game,” Zubac said on a recent conference call with media.
“After I first started getting back in shape, after I was cleared, I felt like I was out of shape. My chest was a little tighter when I would do some stuff. But I feel great right now. I don’t feel anything. I’m getting back into shape, I’m almost there. It’s going to take some more time.”
Zubac feeling like his old self again has been evident with each passing game. He started slow, only finishing with two points and three rebounds against the Lakers while being outworked by Anthony Davis. Against the New Orleans Pelicans, he looked a bit better, especially with his effort on the glass.
In the Clippers’ third game of the restart against the Phoenix Suns, Zubac put up 18 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 77 percent from the field. He followed that up with his best bubble game to date with 21 points on a perfect 10-for-10 shooting and 15 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks.
Zubac equated his increased production with gradually regaining his conditioning and mobility and getting the feel again for regular game speed.
“I’m getting the feel, I’m starting to remember what guys like, what are the best spots on the court for me. My conditioning is getting better each practice, each game,” Zubac told media after the Mavericks game. “I’m feeling like I can stay on the floor for a while, I can run the floor, I can fight in the post with guys, I can rebound. Everything with my conditioning getting back, I can get on another level in every aspect of my game.”
Before his performance against the Mavericks, Zubac had a pretty solid game against the Suns – but the center was obviously still readjusting to his teammates and being able to make the right reads and be in the correct spots on the floor. He played solid defense on Deandre Ayton, but he also ended up having a costly turnover late in the game that set up Devin Booker’s eventual game-winner.
Following the Suns game, Clippers head coach Doc Rivers had mentioned there were a few areas that Zubac could use improvement in, and he was much more effusive in his praise after his performance against the Mavericks.
“He was phenomenal. We talked about it, he did all the things we needed, he really ran the floor, that didn’t show up statistically, but what it did, it created space, it created mismatches,” Rivers told media after the game.
“I loved that our guys were looking for him. I thought his rebounding was fantastic. Really coming off the way we ended the game the other day with Zu, then coming back, playing like that, that was fantastic for his confidence.”
Throughout the season, Zubac has been a player that doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. He does have a soft touch around the rim and can establish a strong position in the post, but he does a lot of damage when he’s rolling to the rim, cutting and moving without the ball and catching lobs from his teammates.
He’s also a good rebounder who gets points off of offensive putbacks, and he’s a solid defender who acts as the team’s interior defensive anchor. He’s also usually on the bench at the end of games when Harrell is in with the starters. But depending on potential matchups, perhaps against the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, or even the Lakers and Davis, Zubac could find himself finishing some games.
What is certain though, is he’s proving his importance to the team and he’s showing that come playoff time, he could end up being the X-factor. He knows that his teammates are going to look for him and he’s ready for that.
“It’s just communication on the floor, knowing what Kawhi and P.G like, knowing how to get a better angle on a screen, just the plays we run, got to have a better understanding what’s good at the time. It’s mostly communication on the floor,” Zubac said. “It feels great to get rewarded by my teammates after doing all the hard work.”
Free Agency Update: Changes In The Bubble
Drew Maresca explores the free agency implications of the first week of play in the bubble as the NBA continues its return to post COVID-19 play.
Free agency is always a fun time for the NBA and its fans, but particularly so in 2020. Most free agents have usually earned their next deal by the 65th game of any given season – but this year is far from typical. Instead, the NBA has returned, sans its eight worst teams, meaning that competition is consistently better. And with limited competition for our attention, every game is a major event that draws more eyes and has a greater effect on the paydays of to-be free agents.
We’re still only three or four games into the official return of the NBA, but there have already been some changes to how we perceive some players. Take T.J. Warren, for example, who’s averaging over 39.7 points per game through three contests. Or Michael Porter Jr., who looks more like the focal point of a team than a player in his first year of professional action.
This article will focus explicitly on the changes in perception of free agents to-be as a result of their play in the bubble in Orlando. We understand that the players listed below can still hurt their standings and that teams rate free agents differently. While the sample size is small, we’ve seen deals made based on an equally small body of work (e.g., Jerome James to the New York Knicks).
One caveat to keep in mind is the unprecedented fiscal challenges facing the NBA and its club in 2020. Not only will the COVID-19 pandemic inevitably hurt the 2020-21 salary cap, but there’s also still a conclusion to be had with the preseason China situation.
With all of that in mind, let’s explore the players that have made the loudest cases for a payday come this offseason.
Mike Conley Jr., Utah Jazz – Player Option
Conley Jr. has a player option for 2020-21 – but he played poorly enough through March, relative to what we’ve come to expect from him, that it was more than reasonable to assume he would opt-in at $34.5 million.
But wait, there’s a chance that Conley does us all a favor and makes free agency 2020 more interesting. Conley’s averaged 19.8 points and 5.8 assists per game, way, way up from 13.8 points and 4.3 assists per game prior to the stoppage in March. If Conley keeps this going – and especially if he performs well in the playoffs – he might want to test the market considering the lack of elite talent that’s anticipated to hit it – assuming he’s unhappy in Utah, that is.
Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans – RFA
Ingram’s looked similar to the guy we saw in 2019-20 before the play stoppage – he’s averaging 23.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game when playing 30 or more minutes. While he was less effective in a loss against the Clippers (14 points and two rebounds in 24 minutes), he’s demonstrated growth in how decisively he makes his move and how seamlessly he then scores on the move.
Ingram was probably going to get max offer as of the All-Star break – especially after reaching his first All-Star team at 22 – but COVID-19 probably altered the ability for teams to dole out lucrative deals. But then play resumed and Ingram picked up right where he left off – and with a confidence to use it liberally. Ingram is nearly a lock for a max deal now.
Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors – UFA
VanVleet started off his time in the bubble with a solid performance (13 points and 11 assists), but he really showed out in his second game against the Miami HEAT. VanVleet led the Raptors to a win against Miami with a career-high 36 points. And then he got right back to being Mr. Consistent for Toronto by posting 21 points and 10 assists in a win against Orlando.
So ultimately, VanVleet has led the Raptors to a 3-0 (re)start, and he’s either scored a career-high or dropped 10-plus assists. James Dolan and Leon Rose are somewhere together – albeit socially distanced, we’re sure – drooling – as are all of the teams in need of a lead guard, like Detroit. VanVleet can only increase his value from here. He’s not assumed to be a max-level player, but if he plays well enough through the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see just how high he can reach.
DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs – Player Option
It’s hard to imagine DeRozan’s value increasing much at this point in his career. After all, he’s an 11-year veteran that has been named to the All-Star Game four times and an All-NBA team twice.
But still, there’s always been presumed limitations to his game, namely his inability to shoot three-pointers. Since being traded to San Antonio, he’s fallen out of the national spotlight a bit. As a 31-year-old capable of reaching unrestricted free agency, DeRozan is at a major inflection point in his career. He could attempt to a final big deal or snag a smaller one if the market for his services doesn’t meet expectations. Or he could just opt-in.
But DeRozan has done his part to remind everyone that he has loads of high-quality basketball left in him. He tallied 30 points on 11-for-20 shooting on Tuesday in a close loss to the 76ers and he’s averaged 22.3 points, 7.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game since the Spurs resumed play last Friday. While those averaged mostly coincide with what he did this season, it also represents a decent boost in assists. But more importantly, it solidifies that DeRozan should still receive a serious look as a lead star. And he’ll probably get interest from a number of teams.
The Known Commodities
Marcus Morris Sr., Los Angeles Clippers – UFA
While Morris Sr. is a known commodity, teams could use additional poor performances against him in negotiations. He’ll probably still have the option to sign for a veterans minimum or mid-level exception with a contender like the Clippers or Lakers. But if he’s eyeing another payday that pays him an annual salary equal to what he made in 2019-20, it would behoove him to make his mark on the stat book.
Making A Case
Trey Burke, Dallas Mavericks – UFA
Burke hasn’t been overly consistent since NBA play resumed last week. But he did have a huge breakout game against the Rockets, scoring 31 points on 8-for-10 for three-pointers in only 30 minutes, while also dishing six assists.
Yes, Burke is averaging just 5.5 points in 18 minutes in the two games since, but the fact that he scored 31 in an NBA game will be enough to get looks as an off-the-bench scorer. And it’s a narrative that can be supported by his past work, too. Remember, Burke is still just 27-years-old and he has a 42-point career-high. He’s also exploded for 30 four times and eclipsed the 20-point mark on 38 occasions in his 389 career games. So even if it’s just a reminder, it’s good to know that Burke can still get it done offensively – and teams are always looking for ways to manufacture offense.
Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz – UFA
Clarkson’s shot only 40 percent from the field since play resumed last Thursday, with an even worse 20 percent from three-point range. Still, scorers are as valuable as ever. It’s what made J.R. Smith so much money in this league, as well as Lou Williams and countless others – and rightfully so. Ultimately, it’s about putting the ball in the hoop. And with that being said, a franchise is going to pay Clarkson and they’ll end up paying more than they would have as of March.
Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers – UFA
Jackson has less to prove than most guys in this part of this list – but given his injury history, he does have to make a statement.
On the whole, Jackson has looked good – but not necessarily great. He averaged 12.5 points, seven rebounds and two assists in his first two contests, but he regressed in the Clippers’ most recent game against the Suns. But on a positive note, Jackson received only 23 minutes on Tuesday versus Phoenix and his 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals accumulated in just 20 minutes.
If Jackson continues to be a contributor to the contending Clippers, someone will overspend on him. After all, good point guards are few and far between.
Harry Giles III, Sacramento Kings – UFA
Giles III only played four minutes in the Kings’ first game back against the Spurs and he didn’t fare much better over 12:55 versus the Mavericks on Tuesday. But when you’re a fringe player that had injury concerns throughout your young career, any positive outings are good – especially those that come in a contract year. Giles tallied 23 points and eight rebounds in only 20 minutes against the Orlando Magic – a significant jump from his 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds averages this season. And that’s probably enough to generate interest amongst a number of teams.
The Kings curiously declined Giles’ fourth-year option, making him an unrestricted free agent as of the end of this season. That’s an interesting decision because the option was relatively cheap given that he was only the No. 20 overall pick (2017). Further confusing matters is the idea that by passing on the fourth-year option, they also lost matching rights – so Giles won’t even be restricted.
To make matters worse, the Kings can’t even bid more than $3.9 million to retain his services. So the Kings ultimately wasted a first-round draft pick on Giles for a grand total of 14.5 minutes per game across 99 games – and he’ll walk before they even know what they had in him.
But this all works out nicely for Giles, who will absolutely get an opportunity elsewhere – and he’ll be paid more than he would have received in Sacramento for it. How good is still an unknown, but he’s shown enough for a team to take a flyer on considering his size, skill set and versatility. He was the No. 1 overall recruit coming out of high school according to ESPN just four short years ago.
Free agency is going to be different than ever before and, up until very recently, that was assumed to be a bad thing. But with some of the above players changing the narratives around them, it could become even more exciting than it’s been in the recent past. Add in the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, Davis Bertans, Christian Wood – and we’re looking at an under-appreciated free-agent class.
NBA Daily: Breaking Down The Bubble’s Race For 8th
Ben Nadeau analyzes the race for the No. 8 and 9 spots in the Western Conference – who will make the cut?
As the NBA inched toward its inevitable rebirth, the instant drama surrounding the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed became a conversation wildfire.
Was the league rolling out the red carpet in hopes of a Zion Williamson-LeBron James showdown in the first round? Could the healthier Portland Trail Blazers make another historic run toward history? De’Aaron Fox, the Sacramento franchise cornerstone, took umbrage over a lack of Kings-related faith, while the Memphis Grizzlies had more than enough ground to protect their standing in the current hierarchy.
Three or so games in to our bubbled adventure, everything has changed – and fast.
The Pelicans, still worrisome over Williamson’s health and conditioning, played him about 15 minutes in each of their first two contests – coincidently, New Orleans went 0-2. With their backs against the wall and slowly losing traction in a muddied race, the Pelicans played the future superstar for 25 minutes, where he racked up 23 points, seven rebounds and used a personal 6-0 run to clinch a much-needed win. Not only did the victory signify an important swing in momentum for the veteran-laden squad, but it was another crushing defeat for Grizzlies, who fell to 0-3 and further loosened their once-gridlocked hold on the final playoff seed.
Long perceived to be a five-team fight for the right to face Memphis in the play-in game(s), the Grizzlies’ early struggles have now nearly opened both spots up. All the more interesting, the San Antonio Spurs have begun 2-1, alongside the Phoenix Suns’ 2-0 effort. Although invited without much media afterthought, both the Spurs and Suns – who boast two of the most reliable constants of the bunch, Gregg Popovich and Devin Booker, respectively – are within the four-game window needed to force a play-in too.
So then: Thanks to the Grizzlies’ scuffles, who’ll be the two franchises to reach that play-in showdown?
Let’s start with the Pelicans, a team that’ll be better the more Williamson is allowed on the floor, obviously. While that variable remains up in the air, New Orleans’ remaining schedule is not. They’ll finish with the Kings twice, plus winnable matchups against the Spurs, Wizards and Magic. Although that opening day loss versus Utah stings, there’s no shame in falling to the Clippers, so the opportunity is certainly still there for the Pelicans to reach Nos. 8 or 9 in the coming days.
The Spurs, following a hard-fought effort against Philadelphia on Monday, unfortunately, have a much harder path forward: Denver, Utah, New Orleans, Houston and Utah. No Magic, no Nets, no Kings, even. Just New Orleans and three teams currently fighting for ‘home court’ advantage in the first round. Of course, betting against Gregg Popovich is beyond stupid and that is a lesson some select few must re-learn every spring – but they still seem like the least likely of six to leapfrog into a spot.
Likewise, it isn’t much better for Phoenix. They’ll conclude with the Clippers, Indiana Pacers and T.J. Warren’s supernova act, Miami HEAT, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks. Thankfully, Mikal Bridges’ efforts in Orlando and Ricky Rubio’s trusty playmaking have served as great foils for Deandre Ayton and the aforementioned Booker. Overall, their offensive rating just cracks the top half (15th, 110.4) and their defense remains in the lower half – but stars win games and Booker fits the bill.
Even the Kings, losers to the Spurs and Magic to open their bubble campaign, get the Pelicans twice but also a downright bad Brooklyn Nets squad and a potentially-resting Los Angeles Lakers team in four of their final five games – so don’t count them out either. With their destiny firmly in hand, expect the Kings to make a run of their own. Fox put up 39 points against San Antonio before tallying just 13 versus Orlando – and, in the latter, Sacramento’s only scorer above 15 went to Harry Giles’ 23. Given the context and a very winnable schedule, the next week or so bodes well for the Kings’ hopes.
As for Portland, the squad with the most bankable 1-2 punch of the collection, have an impossibly-tough Rockets-Nuggets-Clippers-76ers run-in before ending with the Mavericks and Nets. Worse, that stretch of difficult opposition will come fast and furious – a classic three games in four days slog. But above all, their defense leaves too much to be desired, even with the return of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. Before the shutdown, Portland’s defense was only better than the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards at 113.6 in the ratings department.
In the two games back, well, it’s actually been even worse and their putrid 132.0 defensive rating is a whopping 7 points behind the Kings’ 29th-rated unit. It’s early and the sample size is certainly small – but with only six games left, they’ll need to figure it out in the against some of the league’s best. Still, Damian Lillard is a big-moment killer – he did, after all, break up the Thunder core on his own last April – and he’s capable of hot streaks that few others are.
Lillard and Nurkic put up 30 points apiece against Boston – plus 17 from CJ McCollum and 21 notched by Gary Trent Jr. – and totaled 124 as a team… yet it still wasn’t enough. The heroics of Portland’s stars will be relentless, but if they can’t stop the opposition – they’ll come up short.
In the end, even guessing at Nos. 8 and 9 is a fool’s errand. The Bubble has provided shock after shock already – and the added hurdle of rested players for locked-in seeds are soon to come – but six teams will be whittled down to two before long. Despite the slow start, Memphis remains in the driver’s seat – if they can pick up a win on Wednesday versus a seriously-slumping Jazz side, it’ll go a long way toward clinching their place.
And they’d better hope so: If they don’t, they’ll need to hope for some load management with the Thunder, Raptors, Celtics and Bucks to end the mini-campaign. It’s one of the tougher schedules left in the Western Conference, but their cushion, no matter how rapidly it is shrinking, is still reason to believe they’ll limp into the do-or-die scenario.
As for the second spot, it still feels like the Pelicans’ to lose. Between Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, JJ Redick, Brandon Ingram and, duh, Williamson, there’s too much firepower here to completely struggle through an easier-than-most schedule.
But, sure, bet against Gregg Popovich, Damian Lillard, De’Aaron Fox and Devin Booker at your own risk – conventional wisdom suggests that at least one of them will crash the party, no matter how unlikely it seems today.