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NBA Daily: Trade Watch – Atlantic Division

Drew Maresca continues Basketball Insiders’ “NBA Trade Watch” series by covering the Atlantic Division.

Drew Maresca

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The NBA Trade Deadline is rapidly approaching and the number of teams looking to add talent grows with every day and new injury.  Chatter is beginning to heat up with rumors and speculation picking up in the last few days.

We kicked off a new series this week at Basketball Insiders, examining each division across the league and what possible moves, or lack thereof, each team might be looking to make. We’ll continue that with the Atlantic Division.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics’ front office must be at least mildly confused. We took a look at Boston’s talent overload in August and how it might disturb lineups and effectiveness.  To a degree, it’s done just that.

They’re still too talented to not produce results, regardless of distractions and egos. The Celtics clearly turned a corner from their early season struggles, but there is still lots of redundancy on their roster. There are two or three positions on the court for seven players, all of whom deserve significant playing time: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier and Kyrie Irving.

The Celtics would be best served by consolidating talent. They might want to dig into their bag of assets – after all, in this draft alone, they could realistically wind up with their own first round pick, as well as the Clippers, Grizzlies and 76ers or Kings’ first rounders. They don’t need to ship out all of their 2019 first-rounders to score a difference maker, but a combination of a few of them, Rozier and/or Brown could feasibly net Bradley Beal, right?

The Celtics already missed out on Paul George and Jimmy Butler because they were unwilling to entertain shipping out prized assets. At what point does their prudence turn into ignorance?

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are in the unusual situation of being neither buyers nor sellers. On the one hand, their lineups are working, and they have limited expendable players barring a blockbuster deal. And even then, it seems that Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert and Jarret Allen are mostly off limits, unless it’s for Anthony Davis – and even then, they probably wouldn’t part with all three (although a Davis and D’Angelo Russell foundation sounds pretty good).  But on the other hand, they should look to clear as much cap space as possible prior to the Summer of 2019.

Speaking of Russell, he is in the precarious situation of becoming a free agent at the end of a season when the Nets hoped to chase bigger star free agents. He has been one of the very best Nets thus far, but he will likely command a near-max deal. And while the Nets seem happy with his production, they might prefer to spend that money differently or at least see who else might be interested in relocating to Brooklyn – which could potentially rub Russell the wrong way and send him out to explore the world of restricted free agency. At the very least, the Nets need to finalize plans to either sign Russell in the offseason or move him for assets because one (presumably short) playoff run wouldn’t justify losing such a valuable asset for nothing.

And then there’s Allen Crabbe, who the Nets signed to an offer sheet in the summer of 2016. The Trail Blazers matched the contract, but dealt him to the Nets shortly thereafter in July 2017. Fast forward to the present and Crabbe is shooting a career-low 34.3 percent from the field. Plus, he’s missed the past 20 games with a knee injury.

Crabbe is a fine, albeit somewhat disappointing, player; however, the real downside to Crabbe is that he has a player option for $18.5 million next season. If the team can move Crabbe, they will free up additional cap space this coming offseason. But moving Crabbe could mean attaching additional assets, which seems to go directly against the philosophy of the Nets’ regime. However, doing so would make them major players come this offseason with as much as $67 million in cap space.

New York Knicks

The Knicks have collected more than their share of assets. Noah Vonleh, Emmanuel Mudiay and Trey Burke could all help various contenders in a number of ways. All are on expiring deals, so that probably limits the return the Knicks can expect to receive in exchange for them. Teams have allegedly reached out about Frank Ntilikina, but the Knicks have resisted engaging in talks around him so far. Similarly, the Knicks aren’t motivated to help contenders improve without getting either salary cap relief or an asset, which leaves them at a bit of an impasse.

New York would prefer to move Courtney Lee or Tim Hardaway Jr. considering the money they’re owed beyond this season; however, Lee has fallen out of the rotation, thus hurting his trade value, and Hardaway is owed more than $18 million next season with a player option for the following year.

The Knicks will continue to explore moving Lee and Hardaway and cashing in their young, expiring assets for ones they can use in the future, but don’t hold your breath waiting for a deal to be made. They’re allegedly refusing to include future assets in any deal, which mostly prohibits moving future money off the books.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are also interested in adding depth to their rotation – and, frankly, need it more than the Raptors do. They have mostly met expectations, and they were the recipient of the biggest prize of the trade market thus far this season – Jimmy Butler. The 76ers must be patient with their new star and give their team time before jumping to conclusions, be it positive or negative.

However, if a trade presents itself that results in an upgrade in talent or added depth, the 76ers possess a number of assets that would be desirable to teams in the process of rebuilding. Their most desirable asset is probably the Miami HEAT’s 2021 unprotected 1st round pick – a draft expected to feature more talent than usual because it will be the first draft following the elimination of the draft’s current age restriction, meaning it should feature not only the regular crop of college prospects, but also the best of the graduating high school seniors.

Philadelphia is owed seven second-round draft picks from various teams over the next two drafts. The team would also probably be willing to deal Wilson Chandler and Markelle Fultz, who combine to make approximately $20 million, if they return the right piece.

The 76ers should at least get a sense of what it would take to pry Bradley Beal from Washington. If the cost is too high, they should do their due diligence on other wings who could be had for less.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have exceeded their already high pre-season expectations so far, boasting the second-best record in the entire league through 50 games. They are are rumored to be interested in bolstering their already impressive rotation, but haven’t been connected to many players or teams other than a few rumblings about their interest in Bradley Beat (which has all but flamed out).

Of all the teams in the Atlantic Division, the Raptors can be happy with their roster and how their players are working together. They should focus on getting Kyle Lowry back to the player he was last season. Beyond that, their focus should be on continuing to build camaraderie and keeping everyone healthy for the playoffs.

Rumors always ramp up as the trade deadline grows nearer. With only 14 days until the deadline, juicy gossip about players’ availability and where they might end up is almost inevitable. While it is entirely possible that few to no meaningful trades come to fruition before February 7, we are almost guaranteed at least a few moves to hold us over for the summer of 2019.

And with such close competition, the balance of power in the Atlantic could very well be at stake.

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NBA Daily: Examining Michael Porter Jr.’s Ascension

Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging over 25 points per game and looks like a future All-NBA player. Bobby Krivitsky examines Porter’s ascent and the questions that come with it.

Bobby Krivitsky

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Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to new heights.

In the wake of Murray’s ACL tear in mid-April, Porter’s playing time has gone from 30.6 minutes per contest to 35.7, while his shots per game have risen from 12.6 per game to 16.5. The increased responsibility has fueled his ascent. He’s knocking down 56.3 percent of those attempts. He’s taking 8.2 threes per game and making a blistering 50 percent of them. As a result, Porter’s gone from averaging 17.5 points per game to 25.1. He’s also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and blocking almost one shot per contest.

At the time of Murray’s injury, the Denver Nuggets were in fourth place in the Western Conference. They remain there now, 9-4 in his absence, and they boast the eighth-highest net rating in the NBA.

The only way for the Nuggets to fall from fourth would be if they lost their four remaining games and the Dallas Mavericks won their final five contests because the Mavericks have the tiebreaker since they won the season series. On the more realistic end of the spectrum, Denver sits just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Clippers, who occupy the third seed in the West. The Nuggets won their season series against the Clippers, meaning they’d finish in third if the two teams ended the regular season with the same record.

There’s a bevy of questions surrounding Porter’s recent play that need to be asked but cannot get answered at the moment. That starts with whether this is anything more than a hot streak. While it’s impossible to say definitively, it’s reasonable to believe Porter can consistently and efficiently produce about 25 points per game. He was the second-ranked high school prospect in 2017 and entered his freshman year at Missouri firmly in the mix for the top pick in the 2018 NBA draft. That was thanks in large part to his offensive prowess as a 6-10 wing with a smooth shot that’s nearly impossible to block because of the elevation he gets when he shoots. 

A back injury cost him all but 53 minutes of his collegiate career and caused him to fall to the 14th pick in the draft. He ended up in an ideal landing spot, going to a well-run organization that’s also well aware of its barren track record luring star players looking to change teams, making it vital for the Nuggets to hit on their draft picks. 

Porter’s first year in the NBA was exclusively dedicated to the rehab process and doing everything possible to ensure he can have a long, healthy and productive career. Last season, finally getting a chance to play, he showed off the tantalizing talent that made him a top prospect but only took seven shots per game while trying to fit in alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant.

More experience, including battling against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, an offseason, albeit a truncated one, to prepare for a more substantial role with Grant joining the Detroit Pistons and Millsap turning 36 this year, helped propel Porter. 

But for the Nuggets, before Murray’s injury, the perception was that even though they weren’t the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, they were a legitimate title contender. How far can they go if Porter’s consistently contributing about 25 points and over six rebounds per game while effectively playing the role of a second star alongside Jokic? 

It seems fair to cross Denver off the list of title contenders. But, if Porter continues to capably play the role of a second star alongside Jokic when doing so becomes more challenging in the postseason, the Nuggets can advance past a team like the Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers. And at a minimum, they’d have the ability to make life difficult for whoever they had to face in the second round of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the timing of Murray’s ACL tear, which happened in mid-April, means there’s a legitimate possibility he misses all of next season. Denver’s increased reliance on Porter is already allowing a young player with All-NBA potential to take on a role that’s closer to the one he’s assumed his whole life before making it to the sport’s highest level. If the Nuggets are counting on him to be the second-best player on a highly competitive team in the Western Conference next season, it’ll be fascinating to see what heights he reaches and how far they’re able to go as a team.

Theoretically, Porter’s growth could make it difficult for Denver to reacclimate Murray. But given Jokic’s unselfish style of play, there’s room for both of them to be satisfied by the volume of shots they’re getting. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have to wait, potentially another season, but Jokic is 26-years-old, Murray 24, Porter 22. When Denver has their Big Three back together, they could be far more potent while still being able to enjoy a lengthy run as legitimate title contenders.

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NBA Daily: D’Angelo Russell Back on Track

D’Angelo Russell lost much of the 2020-21 season to injury. Drew Maresca explains why his return will surprise people around the league.

Drew Maresca

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D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves last February, just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the entire season. But we’ve yet to see what Russell can really do in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves acquired Russell in late February in exchange for a future first-round pick – which transitions this season if they pick later than third – a 2021 second-round pick and Andrew Wiggins.

Sidenote: For those keeping score at home, the Timberwolves currently have the third-worst record in the league with five games remaining. It would behoove Minnesota to lose as many of their remaining games as possible to keep their 2021 pick. If the pick does not transition this season, it becomes unrestricted in 2020.

Trying to turn an owed pick into an unprotected future first is usually the wrong move; but in this instance, it’s better to keep the high first-rounder this year with an understanding that your 2022 pick will probably fall in or around the middle of the lottery.

The thinking around the deal was that Minnesota could qualify for the playoffs as soon as this season by swapping Wiggins’ contract for a young, talented lead guard in Russell. It has not played out as planned.

COVID resulted in a play stoppage shortly after the deal, robbing Russell of the opportunity to ramp up with his new team. When the NBA returned to finish the 2019-20 season, the Timberwolves failed to qualify for bubble play – and considering the US was still battling a global pandemic, Russell couldn’t easily practice with his new teammates and/or coaches.

The 2020-21 season began weirdly, too. The NBA proceeded with an abbreviated training camp and preseason. And while this impacted all teams, Russell was additionally hindered by the decision.

Ready or not, the season began. In 2020-21, Russell is averaging a near-career low in minutes per game (28.2) across just 36 games. He’s tallying 19.1 points per game on 43.6% shooting and a career-best 38.8% on three-point attempts. He’s also he’s posting a near career-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7 to 2.8).

Despite Russell’s contributions, the Timberwolves have failed to meet expectations. Far from the playoff squad they hoped to be, Minnesota is in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft. So what has gone wrong in Minneapolis?

Russell’s setbacks are fairly obvious. In addition to the lack of preparation with his teammates and coaches, Russell was diagnosed with a “loose body” in his knee, requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in February. As a result, he missed 27 consecutive games. Russell returned on April 5, but head coach Chris Finch revealed that he’d been on a minutes restriction until just recently.

Minnesota is clearly being cautious with Russell. Upon closer review, Russell has been restricted to under 30 minutes per game in all of his first 10 games back. Since then, Russell is averaging 31 minutes per game including an encouraging 37 minutes on May 5 in a four-point loss to Memphis.

Since returning from knee surgery, Russell is averaging 27 minutes per game across 16 games. Despite starting 19 of the team’s first 20 games, he hadn’t started in any game since returning – until Wednesday.

On the whole, Russell’s impact is about the same as it was prior to the injury, which should be encouraging to Timberwolves’ fans. He’s scoring slightly less (18.8 points since returning vs. 19.3 prior), shooting better from the field (44.9% since returning vs 42.6%% prior) and has been just slightly worse from three-point range (37.4% since vs. 39.9 prior). He’s dishing out more assists per game (6.5 since vs. 5.1 prior), too, and he posted three double-digit assist games in his last five contents – a feat achieved only once all season prior to his last five games.

Despite playing more and dropping more dimes, there’s still room to improve. Looking back to his career-bests, Russell averaged 23.1 points per game in 2019-20 in 33 games with Golden State (23.6) and 12 games with Minnesota (21.7).

But his most impactful season came in 2018-19 with the Brooklyn Nets. That season, Russell averaged 21.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, leading the Nets to the playoffs and earning his first trip to the All-Star game. He looked incredibly comfortable, playing with supreme confidence and flashing the ability to lead a playoff team.

At his best, Russell is a dynamic playmaker. The beauty of Russell is that he can also play off the ball. He has a quick release on his jumper and impressive range. His game is not predicated on athleticism, meaning he should stay at his peak for longer than guys like De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant.

And while he’s been in the league for what feels like ever (six seasons), Russell just turned 25 approximately two months ago. Granted, comparing anyone to Steph Curry is unwise, but Curry wasn’t Steph Curry yet at 25. Former MVP Steve Nash hadn’t yet averaged double-digits (points) at 25. Twenty-five is also an inflection point for Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. And the list goes on.

To be fair, Russell was drafted at 19 so he’s more acclimated to the league at this age than most, but his game will continue expanding nonetheless. He’ll develop trickier moves, become stronger and grow his shooting range. And a good deal of that growth should be evident as soon as next season since he’ll be fully healed from knee surgery and have a full offseason and training camp to finally work with teammates and coaches.

So while Minnesota’s 2020-21 season was incredibly bleak, their future is quite bright – and much of it has to do with the presence of Russell.

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NBA AM: Is This It for Indiana?

Following their major drop-off, Matt John explains why the Pacers trying to get back to where they were may not be the best decision.

Matt John

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Remember when, following the maligned trade of Paul George, the sky was the limit for the Indiana Pacers? The 2017-18 Pacers were one of the best stories in the NBA that season because they made their opponents work for their victories, and they put on a spectacle every night.

It’s hard to believe that all transpired three whole years ago. When Cleveland eliminated Indiana in a very tight first-round series, I asked if having the exciting season that they did – when many thought it would turn out the opposite – was going to benefit them in the long run. Three years later, this happens.

We were getting plenty of smoke about the Pacers’ drama behind-the-scenes beforehand, and now, we have seen the fire firsthand. More and more reports indicate that the crap has hit the fan. Indiana has seemingly already had enough of Nate Bjorkgren in only his first year as his coach. When you see the results they’ve had this season compared to the last three, it’s not hard to see why.

The Pacers have routinely found themselves in the 4-5 playoff matchup for the last three years. Sadly, despite their fight – and, to be fair, they had pretty awful injury luck the past two postseasons – they haven’t been able to get over the hump in the first round. They may not have been in the elite tier, but they weren’t slouches either. So, seeing them not only fail to take the next step but look more and more likely for the play-in is as discouraging as it gets. Especially after they started the season 6-2.

If these reports about the tensions between the players and Bjorkgren are real, then this has already become a lost season for the Pacers. It’s too late in the season to make any major personnel changes. At this point, their best route is just to cut their losses and wait until this summer to think over what the next move is.

In that case, let’s take a deep breath. This has been a weird season for everyone. Every aspect minus the playoffs has been shorter than usual since last October. Everything was shortened from the offseason to the regular season. Oh, and COVID-19 has played a role as the season has turned out, although COVID-19 has probably been the least of Indy’s problems. Let’s think about what next season would look like for Indiana.

TJ Warren comes back with a clean bill of health. Caris Levert gets more acquainted with the team and how they run. Who knows? Maybe they finally resolve the Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis situation once and for all. A new coach can come aboard to steady the ship, and it already looks like they have an idea for who that’s going to be

Should they run it back, there’s a solid chance they can get back to where they were before. But that’s sort of the problem to begin with. Even if this recent Pacers’ season turns out to be just a negative outlier, their ceiling isn’t all too high anyway. A team that consists of Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Caris Levert as their core four is a solid playoff team. Having Turner, Doug McDermott, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb, and the Holiday brothers rounds out a solid playoff team. Anyone who takes a good look at this roster knows that this roster is a good one. It’s not great though.

Just to be clear, Indiana has plenty of ingredients for a championship team. They just don’t have the main one: The franchise player. Once upon a time, it looked like that may have been Oladipo, but a cruel twist of fate took that all away. This isn’t a shot at any of the quality players they have on their roster, but think of it this way.

For the next couple of years, they’re going to go up against Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. All of whom are on the same team. For potentially even longer, they’ll be going up against the likes of Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum. With the roster they have, they could make a series interesting against any one of those teams. However, it’s a rule of thumb in the NBA that the team with the best player usually wins the series. Not to mention, they’d have to beat most of the teams those players play for to go on a substantial playoff run. That’s a pretty tall order.

There’s no joy in talking about the Pacers like this because they have built this overachieving underdog from nothing more than shrewd executive work. They turned a disgruntled and expiring Paul George into Oladipo and Sabonis. Both of whom have since become two-time all-stars (and counting). They then managed to turn an expiring and hobbled Oladipo – who had no plans to return to Indiana – into the electric Levert. They also pretty much stole Brogdon and Warren away while paying very little for either of them.

That is fantastic work. The only hangup is that, as of now, it just doesn’t seem like it will be enough. But, doubt and skepticism are things Indiana’s had thrown their way consistently since 2017. Many thought their approach to trading Paul George would blow up in their face, and since then, they’ve done everything in their power to make everyone eat their words.

Kevin Pritchard’s got his work cut out for him this summer. This season will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than performance ruined by both the wrong coaching hire and an unusual season that produced negatively skewed results. But at this point, Pritchard’s upcoming course of action this summer shouldn’t be about getting his team back to where they were, but deciding whether he can get them a step or two further than that by adding more to what they have or starting over completely.

Indiana’s had a rough go of it in this COVID-shortened season, but their disappointing play may have little to no bearing on where they go from here.

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