The 2016-17 NBA Champions were unquestionably dominant throughout the regular season and the playoffs. The Golden State Warriors built up to this point with shrewd signings and excellent draft selections over the last few years. The unprecedented salary cap spike, which occurred before the 2016-17 season, that allowed the Warriors to sign forward Kevin Durant while retaining all of their star players was the pinnacle of good timing and good fortune.
Recently, the NBA announced that the salary cap spike would raise the 2017-2018 salary cap to $99 million instead of the most recent projections of around $102 million (and much earlier projections around $108 million). Unlike the former, this current cap spike is lower than expected and has placed increased pressure on teams looking to compete for a championship next season.
Surprisingly, a number of teams have passed on the opportunity to wait out this projected period of dominance for the Warriors and have been positioning themselves to be as competitive as possible despite long odds and long term risks. Perhaps no team is loading up to challenge the Warriors as much as the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets have been extremely aggressive in their attempts to not only improve, but be legitimately competitive with the Warriors. These moves confirm general manager Daryl Morey’s earlier statements with ESPN’s Zach Lowe about staying competitive and bridging with gap with Golden State.
“We are used to long odds,” Morey said. “If Golden State makes the odds longer, we might up our risk profile and get even more aggressive. We have something up our sleeve.”
The Rockets quickly proved to have something up their sleeve with the stunning acquisition of Los Angeles Clippers superstar point guard Chris Paul. The Rockets’ own superstar guard had just completed a season in which he had shifted from shooting guard to point guard, nearly resulting in Harden’s first MVP award. This new acquisition is both stunning and a bit risky as both Paul and Harden are ball dominant guards, leaving some to wonder how well these two will coexist. Per basketball-reference.com, Paul and Harden tallied usage rates of 24.4 and 34.2 percent, respectively. One or both of them will have to move off the ball somewhat to make this work.
Regardless of fit, the Rockets landed Paul at the cost of defensive hound Patrick Beverly, a developing young talent in forward Sam Dekker, a future first-round draft pick and an interesting prospect in Montrezl Harrell, who spoke to Basketball Insiders recently about how he is excited to have a fresh start with the Los Angeles Clippers. How much better the Rockets will be as a result of this trade depends on how these two stars adjust. However, the Rockets should be examined as a whole with the subsequent moves that have since been made.
In addition to the Paul trade, the Rockets have added forward P.J. Tucker on a four-year, $32 million contract. The Rockets are adding Tucker for the same reason the Toronto Raptors acquired him last season — to guard elite forwards, especially the ones the team might face in the playoffs. Tucker should fit in well alongside current defensive wing stopper forward Trevor Ariza, giving the Rockets a second small forward with above average defensive abilities who can help guard the likes of Durant and other elite forwards.
The Rockets have also re-signed veteran center Nene on a three-year, $11 million contract. This three-year deal comes on the heels of an earlier four-year, $15 million offer, which the Rockets and Nene had already agreed upon. However, it was quickly pointed out that due to Nene’s age, he is barred from signing such a contract due to the over-38 rule. Unfortunately for Nene, after being frustrated by the nullification of his original deal, he seems to have not found a strong market outside the Rockets and quickly agreed to a smaller three-year deal. With Nene coming back, the Rockets have a capable scoring option in the post who has proven to be effective in Mike D’Antoni’s efficient offensive system.
The above deals have the Rockets positioned to again be very competitive. They took the San Antonio Spurs to a Game 6 where, under the pressure to constantly generate offense, Harden seemed to run out of gas. Nene had already gone down for the playoffs with a muscle tear of his left thigh. With Harden rendered ineffective and the Rockets already being shorthanded, they were blown out in a close-out Game 6 by a Spurs team that had lost superstar forward Kawhi Leonard to injury the previous game. Now with Paul available to share the offensive burden with Harden, the Rockets are poised to be the top contender to challenge the Warriors depending on how the Spurs manage their offseason.
But who says the Rockets are stopping here? After the recent firing of former New York Knicks President Phil Jackson, Knicks star forward Carmelo Anthony finally appears to be willing to waive his no-trade clause. Jackson has spent a great deal of time trying to convince Anthony to waive the clause, which would pave the way for a trade to rid the Knicks of Anthony. Now that Jackson is gone, Anthony appears to have changed his attitude regarding this sticking point. Anthony has appeared to have given an indication that he would welcome a trade to either Cleveland or Houston, as reported by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
Houston must first overcome the hurdle of convincing New York, or possibly a third team, to accept the remainder of Ryan Anderson’s three-year, $61.3 million contract. With Anthony, the Rockets will fully transform into a new look, star driven team. Anthony, Harden and Nene may not be renowned for their individual defense but Ariza, Paul and Tucker can help pick up the slack and perhaps ensure team defensive concepts are adhered to.
Obviously, the Rockets are looking to be as competitive as possible, so what’s the risk? Paul comes to the Rockets after choosing to opt in on the last year of his current contract. At the end of this upcoming season, Paul will be a free agent. If Paul and Harden fail to mesh and create winning synergy, the Rockets may be forced to trade Paul or risk losing him (and the assets that were used to acquire him) for a one-year rental.
Adding to risk/reward quotient is the potential addition of Anthony. The risk is fairly clear — Anthony would be another ball dominant player (29.1 percent usage) who has rarely found himself being the driving force behind a winning situation in the NBA. Adding to the volatility is his reputation being an inconsistent defender. Finally, don’t forget that D’Antoni and Anthony famously clashed leading to D’Anonti’s departure from New York. These are significant issues that Morey and his staff have considered and seem to think are worth the risk.
There is risk in acquiring Anthony and significant upside as well. Being surrounded by so much talent, Anthony may transform into three-time Olympics gold medalist who in international competition plays off the ball, executes defensive concepts and sacrifices to ensure victory. Anthony and Paul have been playing basketball at a high level for a number of years and should they team up in Houston, the hope for them is they might create a dynamic powerful enough to pose a real threat to the Warriors. Both players have demonstrated that they are among the best in the league in talent and individual output but both are on the tail ends of their primes and will not lack the motivation to win at the cost of individual success. At least, the Rockets must hope so.
Payton Blocking Out Trade Talk, Believes Magic Will Turn It Around
Spencer Davies sits down with Elfrid Payton to discuss his fourth year, trade rumors and a trying season for Orlando in a Basketball Insiders exclusive.
It’s hard for a team to look for positives when it’s living in the basement.
The Orlando Magic have had a rough go of it this year. They’re 13-32 at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, they’ve have had a ton of setbacks, and they currently rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rating.
There is a bright spot hidden in there, though, and head coach Frank Vogel sees it growing as the season progresses.
“We’re frustrated with our record, but we’re encouraged with the development we’ve had with our young players,” Vogel said before Thursday’s game in Cleveland. “Aaron Gordon, Mario [Hezonja], and [Elfrid Payton] have all had strong individual seasons and continue to get better. All those guys are improving individually and at some point, it’s gonna lead to more Ws.”
While Gordon stands out more to some than the others because of his star appeal, Payton is right up there with him as far as making the next step goes.
“Elfrid’s shooting the ball better from the perimeter and at the rim,” Vogel said. “He’s worked on his left hand. He’s worked on his floaters. Shooting 52 percent from the field and that’s pretty darn good for a point guard, and the 39 percent from the three as well.”
Those are your more traditional statistics that don’t address the leap he’s taken in efficiency. Sure, Payton’s scoring the same amount of points per game, but it’s the way he’s been getting that’s been most noticeable.
According to Basketball-Reference and NBA.com, he’s making nearly 70 percent of his tries between 0-3 feet and ranks third among point guards in restricted field goal percentage (min. four attempts).
But Payton doesn’t like to evaluate himself using numbers, so he doesn’t know how to feel about how he’s played for Orlando this year.
“It’s tough to say because I like to measure my success by winning and we haven’t been doing that,” Payton told Basketball Insiders. “So tough to say.”
He’s not kidding. Since starting out the season 8-4, the Magic have taken a hard fall, only winning five games since November 10. In this stretch, there have been three hefty losing streaks—two 9-game slides and most recently a 7-game skid.
“Not to make excuses—we had a lot of injuries,” Payton told Basketball Insiders of what happened. “Haven’t really been playing with the group of guys that we started the season with, so kinda derailed us a little bit.”
As the losses pile up, so does the chatter. Indicated by multiple recent reports, Orlando has made it clear that many players on the roster are available on the trade block. Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja, and Payton were recently brought up as names who could possibly on the move if the right deal presents itself.
When asked about the rumblings, Vogel claimed he doesn’t have a message for his guys.
“They understand it’s part of the business,” he said. “Just focus on playing the game.”
Like his coach, Payton doesn’t have a reaction to the noise.
“I don’t get caught up into the things like that,” Payton told Basketball Insiders. “Today I’m an Orlando Magic. I play for the Orlando Magic and I’m gonna give them 100 percent of me. I’m somebody that likes to finish what I started, so I definitely would like to see this through and try to turn this organization around.”
So who does he see on this team that can help jump-start the process in flipping the script?
“Everybody,” Payton told Basketball Insiders. “I like Vuc. I like AG. Evan [Fournier] is somebody who can fill it up. T Ross is somebody who can fill it up when healthy. I think we have a lot of talent on this team. Even the rookies—Wes [Iwundu] plays well for us in stretches. Jon [Isaac] when he was playing he’d do well.
“You could see the potential there. So I think we have a lot of weapons on this team. I’m very confident in the group we have here. I think we have a lot of talent, we just have to do it.”
Saying you’re going to right the ship is one thing. Actually doing it is a whole other challenge. With where the Magic sit in the standings currently, their work is cut out for them. That being said, Payton isn’t giving up.
In fact, he’s still got his eyes on making it to the postseason, and it starts with him.
“Definitely trying to get a run going,” Payton told Basketball Insiders. “Make a playoff push. It’s definitely not out of sight right now, especially with the way the East is. We win a few games and we right back in the thick of things.
“Do whatever I can to help us to get more wins, man. I think that’s what it all boils down to. I figure if I’m playing well, that means we’re winning for the most part.”
Defense matters the most, and it’s something Payton and his group know they need to get better at if they have a chance to play past mid-April.
“Just be tied in together a little bit more,” Payton told Basketball Insiders. “I think sometimes we have too many breakdowns on the backside. So just being more in-tune with each other.”
One thing is for sure—Orlando is going through this difficult time as a team, but refuses to fold. Payton says Vogel has constantly stayed in their ears with uplifting advice.
“Keep fighting,” Payton told Basketball Insiders of his words. “Don’t feel sorry for yourself. No one’s gonna feel sorry for you, so just keep fighting.”
NBA Daily: Three Teams Treading Water In The West
While the Clippers have surged into the playoff picture, the Blazers, Nuggets and Pelicans are barely staying afloat out West.
While the L.A. Clippers have surged into the Western Conference playoff picture on the crest of a six-game win streak, the Trail Blazers, Nuggets and Pelicans are stumbling toward the All-Star break with records around .500 over their last 10 games.
All four teams are within a game of each other and hovering around the playoff cut line. For teams that are treading water, the second half of the season will be a struggle for consistency in a brutal playoff race that promises to leave a good team on the outside looking in.
Although Richard Jefferson is winding down a storied career and barely playing for the Nuggets, he often takes the role of elder statesman in media scrums. After the Nuggets became the latest victim of the red-hot Clippers Wednesday, Jefferson said they should not be underestimated.
“They’ve been a playoff team for many, many years,” said Jefferson. “They’ve dealt with some injuries but, for the most part, I think they’re going to be in the hunt for the playoffs just like we are.”
Jefferson was also asked about the Nuggets’ late-game execution and pointed to the team’s overall youth with major addition Paul Millsap missing extended time due to injury.
“We’re getting to a spot of being a little bit more consistent in those moments,” said Jefferson. “But ultimately, I think guys are still learning. Most of the guys that are in these positions are in these positions for the first time. I think we’ll continue getting better as the season goes on.”
Meanwhile, the Pelicans experienced its own setback Wednesday in a loss to an Atlanta Hawks team that’s tied for the second-worst record in the league. For now, the Pelicans hold the seventh seed. It will be up to the continuing evolution of the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins pairing to keep New Orleans trending in the right direction.
“For us, we’re two guys who can shoot the ball, handle it, pass,” said Davis after the loss in Atlanta. “We’ve got a lot of guys around us who are capable of making plays. I think we compliment each other. There’s still some stuff we still want to get better at as a unit.”
Davis went into further detail about what makes the rare pairing of two elite big men work.
“Cuz is always spacing the floor,” said Davis. “One guy’s inside, the other one’s outside. We set screens for each other, throw lobs for each other. So it’s tough for bigs to try to play that. When we set a pin-down for myself or DeMarcus, most four or fives are not used to that.”
Davis came into the game with 30 or more points in three straight games and seven of the previous 10—he’s been on a massive roll. However, that streak came to an end as Davis hit only two of eight shots for eight points. Hawks rookie John Collins scored 18 while dealing with the issues Davis described.
“You’ve got A.D. on the one hand and then you’ve got Boogie on the other hand,” said Collins. “[They’re] some of the best bigs in the league, very skilled guys, obviously a handful to deal with.”
Hawks shooting guard Kent Bazemore led Atlanta with 20 points and hit the final shot in the waning moments to secure the victory. Bazemore is a player the Pelicans could conceivably pursue at the trade deadline to address wing issues.
Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are dealing with questions of whether a team built around Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum can become competitive with the West’s upper echelon. Marc Stein of the New York Times went so far as to predict that Portland’s backcourt could be broken up this year.
“No one’s suggesting it’ll happen before the Feb. 8 trade deadline,” Stein wrote. “But Portland’s latest so-so season threatens to be the impetus that finally pushes the longtime Blazers owner Paul Allen in a new direction.”
This is the time of year when NBA teams take stock and have to decide if they are properly constructed or need to look at changes. With the Pelicans, Trail Blazers and Nuggets barely keeping pace in the playoff race, few other teams will be more heavily scrutinized — internally as well as externally — as the trade deadline approaches.
NBA Daily: Things To Watch Heading Into Trade Season
Two of our experts identify four teams and four players to keep an eye on during trade season.
With memories of DeMarcus Cousins being told that he was traded to the New Orleans Pelicans during his postgame availability at last season’s All-Star game, the NBA moved the trade deadline up.
This season, the deadline falls on February 8, and all there has been a lot of discussion leading into next month’s deadline.
We asked Moke Hamilton and Lang Greene to weigh in on some items to keep an eye on over the next three weeks.
Nikola Mirotic and Derrick Favors
This year’s trade deadline will probably lack big names getting moved, but teams such as the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets are within sniffing distance of a playoff berth for the first time in years. It will be interesting to see if their respective front offices swing for the fences to achieve the goal.
There are three ways to improve a roster or prepare for the future in the NBA. The methods are free agency, trade and the annual draft. Trade deadline deals are risky. There are a lot of deals each season which involve players on the verge of hitting the free agent market. Teams acquiring these take the risk that they’re only “renting” those guys until the season concludes.
At the end of the day, though, the two biggest names we may see moved are Nikola Mirotic and Derrick Favors.
Mirotic has been plagued by inconsistency throughout his career, but the fourth-year forward is by far having his best season as a professional despite his minutes remaining flat. On a per 36 minute basis, Mirotic is averaging 25.1 points and 9.9 rebounds.
Mirotic and teammate Bobby Portis made headlines before the season for their fight, which led plenty of missed time for the forward. Mirotic’s name has been mentioned on the block ever since this incident, but it’s clear the Bulls have integrated him back into their rotation fully. Still, the team is believed to simply be waiting for the right time and trade partner and that Mirotic’s days in Chicago are numbered.
According to the Chicago Tribune, the Bulls plan to be patient in fielding calls for Mirotic, while the player has deflected all talks to his representatives.
“I didn’t talk to [the Bulls’ front office recently],” he said. “Probably my agents are talking, so I don’t know so far what’s going on, but I know my name is going to be out there. I’m doing my job, and I’m sure they’re doing their job, and we’re both going to do what’s best for the team.”
Mirotic has a no-trade clause built into his contract and would have to waive it prior to completing any deal, unless the Bulls were to guarantee the team option on the final year of his contract for 2018-19. Don’t count on that, though.
With respect to Favors, he battled injuries the past two seasons but has remained relatively healthy to begin this campaign. The forward is shooting a career high from the field, but according to the Salt Lake Tribune, the Utah Jazz have dangled him in trade talks since the beginning of the season.
Favors was one of the central parts of the Deron Williams trade years ago, but could be expendable because of the emergence of center Rudy Gobert in the Jazz’s frontcourt. The forward is on the books for $12.5 million this season and was most recently linked to the aforementioned Mirotic in trade talks between Utah and Chicago.
– Lang Greene
DeAndre Jordan and Paul George
Heading into deadline season, there’s not much out there to suggest that we’ll see any superstar-caliber players moved. With the likes of Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul and Kyrie Irving among the players that switched teams over the summer, it seems that most NBA teams that have difference-makers on their rosters are in construction mode—they’re trying to compete with the Cavs or the Warriors.
The two superstar players who merit some discussion, though, are DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan.
With respect to Jordan, the Clippers find themselves in a very peculiar situation. With Chris Paul having defected to the Houston Rockets, it’s easy to conclude that the Clippers are no longer a true contender. Still, they’ve played so well over the past few weeks (including scoring a victory over Paul and his Rockets) that it seems a difficult proposition to proactively pull the plug.
Still, though, as written in this past Sunday’s column, it’s time for the Clippers to trade Jordan, mainly because a team that is heading toward a rebuild can’t afford to lose a player of his caliber for nothing, and that’s quite possible unless the Clippers fork over a max contract to Jordan this summer. The proposition wouldn’t be wise, particularly because it could cost the Clippers a first round pick in one of the upcoming drafts.
He’s definitely a player that should be watched.
Paul George, on the other hand, doesn’t appear likely to be headed out of Oklahoma City. The team is reportedly committed to keeping him for the duration of the season, with the hope being that the Thunder will get their act together and win a round or two in the playoffs. With the team still hovering around .500, it seems a long shot.
There are some, however, that believe that the Thunder should at least see what might be available to them in exchange for George, especially with the team trading Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis for him. That’s especially true with Oladipo closing in on what certainly appears to be his first All-Star selection.
– Moke Hamilton
Dallas Mavericks Are Open For Business
The Dallas Mavericks are in a clear rebuild and the prospect of making the playoffs is more dream than reality this season, but the team does have some things going for it.
The Mavs have roughly $13 million in cap space, which puts them in a prime spot to acquire talent at the deadline without giving up any of their players in return. In fact, Mark Cuban went on the record and said exactly that.
“I would say we are looking to use our cap space actively,” Cuban told the Dallas Morning News earlier this week. “We will take back salary to get picks or guys we think can play.”
The Mavericks have the second-lowest payroll in the league, but Cuban has been known to spend money to acquire relevant talent. The team hasn’t had much success in in attracting free agents in recent years, and with the Hall of Fame career of Dirk Nowitzki coming to an end, the team is undoubtedly looking to retool.
– Lang Greene
Cavs and Lakers Each Likely To Do Something
It’s a poorly kept secret that the Los Angeles Lakers have had their sights set on acquiring a superstar or two this coming summer. With Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins and LeBron James among those who could hit the market in July, the Lakers have quite a bit of incentive to try to rid themselves of the contracts of Luol Deng and Jordan Clarkson.
Where things get interesting for the Lakers is with the emergence of several of their young players this season. Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma and to a lesser extent Josh Hart have each given the team impressive minutes this season. If the Lakers feel they have a real shot at signing James and, say, DeMarcus Cousins, it may be enough for them to package Deng and/or Clarkson with one of their promising young players and perhaps a future draft pick.
It’s certainly something I’d keep my eyes on.
And speaking of future draft picks, with the Cavs not taking their standing in the Eastern Conference for granted, one can only wonder the extent to which the Nets’ first round pick this coming season is burning a hole in their pockets. Aside from the Nets pick, though, the Cavs do own their own first round pick, which could be enough for them to pry the likes of a player like Mirotic or Favors from their current team.
There has also been some conjecture revolving around the availability of Tristan Thompson, with one interesting scenario having the Cavs and Clippers at least contemplating a trade involving Thompson and Jordan.
The Cavs and Lakers each have too much at stake to not do something.
– Moke Hamilton
Only 21 Days To Go…
With the trade deadline exactly three weeks from today, talks will certainly heat up.
For now, though, the Mavs, Cavs and Lakers appear to be the teams most involved in conversations, with Nikola Mirotic, Derrick Favors and DeAndre Jordan among those most likely to be dealt.