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NBA Daily: Eastern Conference Second Round X-Factors

In the crushingly competitive Eastern Conference, there are four potential x-factors that could ultimately swing the series.

Ben Nadeau



By the end of the night, the NBA’s postseason second round will be officially set — first from 30 teams to 16 and soon just nine shall remain. Throughout the regular season — and for much of the last two years, actually — the biggest, most important question has been repeatedly asked ad nauseam: Can the Golden State Warriors be beaten? Thanks to Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and two other likely Hall of Famers, the Warriors have become basketball’s behemoth, with each playoff opponent desperately trying to hang on for one more game.

Well, most of the time.

The Houston Rockets found themselves a win away from dethroning the Warriors in last year’s Western Conference Finals and could’ve done so if not for Chris Paul’s pesky hamstring. Entering the second round, the Rockets will get their long-awaited chance at revenge — but for the entire Eastern Conference bracket, they’re just looking to get one step closer. In Milwaukee, Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia, this postseason offers the ability for a deep run without the constant threat of LeBron James lurking around every corner.

But in order to reach new heights, they’ll need an x-factor to tip the scales in their favor — both new and old — in the ever-closer conference battles.

Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks
Postseason: 12 PPG, 5.3 REB, 3.5 BLK, 1.5 3PG

When Lopez signed with Milwaukee on a one-year prove-it deal last offseason, it struck many as an absolute steal for the potential-laden Bucks. Lead by Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and a cast of superb supporting characters, Lopez was brought on to provide a steady veteran presence at a position the franchise had struggled to fill over the years. Instead, it turns out, Lopez was just what this team needed.

The 7-footer had dabbled from behind the arc in recent seasons, but his coming out party in Milwaukee has been borderline remarkable. With the Bucks, Lopez averaged 2.3 three-pointers per game at a 36.3 percent clip, all while seamlessly unclogging the paint for the transcendental Antetokounmpo.

By the season’s midway point, Lopez was nonchalantly dribbling into three-pointers and making it look easy too — but with the stakes higher than ever, can he make Boston suffer? The Raptors boast a scary defensive unit, one that held Indiana to just 33.6 percent from deep over their four-game series. Eric Bledsoe and the aforementioned Middleton will have their hands full defending Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum, so Lopez must be able to stretch the floor and drag the perennially-underrated Al Horford away from the rim.

Additionally, Horford will do the same exact thing to Lopez on the opposite end, making for the Eastern Conference’s most intriguing chess match headed into the second round. During the regular season, Horford tore Milwaukee up — 19.5 points, 11 rebounds and 6.5 assists over the two games — so the pressure is on Lopez to consistently defend well where he’s least comfortable

Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors
Postseason: 22.6 PPG, 8.4 REB, 1.6 3PG

Long story short: The likely frontrunner for Most Improved Player of the Year is a multi-faceted Swiss Army knife that will have his breakout campaign tested against the drive-dependant 76ers. But for as incredible as Siakam’s regular season was — 16.9 points and 6.9 rebounds per game — the 25-year-old quickly hit another gear against Orlando. Whether he’s showing off some calculated post moves or bombing away from deep, Siakam was simply unguardable in round one.

Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons provide an intriguing defensive hurdle for Siakam and Kawhi Leonard, a switch-laden challenge that’ll constantly test the budding superstar in a long, grueling series. On the flip side, however, the 76ers don’t have a clear answer to Siakam on the offensive side either — so he must keep his hot-streak going at all costs.

Should the Raptors do away with their Atlantic Division rivals, they’ll need some inspired efforts on both sides of the ball. Versatile as they come, the 76ers will throw a bunch of schemes at Siakam and how he adapts may be this series’ ultimate turning point.

Bonus: Although these teams haven’t played since the trade deadline — hello, Tobias Harris and Marc Gasol — Toronto went 3-1 against Philadelphia this season, a sterling record that includes a 26-point beauty from Siakam back in December.

Marcus Morris, Boston Celtics
Postseason: 12.3 PPG, 6.5 REB, 1.8 3PG

It’s no secret that the Celtics have existed as a complete enigma at times this season — a few days on, a few days off. Between Kyrie Irving’s effortless ability to control a game or Gordon Hayward’s potential to impact the series off the bench, Morris might seem like an odd selection for x-factor consideration. Hell, even Marcus Smart — currently recovering from a partial tear to his left oblique — and an unexpected boost might make sense here too. In any case, there’s something about an on-fire Morris that just makes Boston unmistakenly electric.

In Game 1 against Indiana, Morris’ 20-point scorcher single-handedly willed the Celtics through an anxious opener. A week later, Morris went plus-18 — a team- and game-high — during Boston’s series-ender, notching 18 points and eight rebounds over 30 minutes. When Morris gets going, so do the Celtics. Once even hailed as a LeBron-stopped, Morris always provides well-timed veteran savviness for the Celtics, a toughness and palpable energy that his teammates even seem to thrive off of. Additionally, Morris will be part of the team tasked with slowing down Antetokounmpo — a nearly-impossible feat. But if Morris can make life just slightly more irritating for the MVP-worthy candidate, the Celtics will like their chances to push this heavyweight series to the brink.

Furthermore, when Morris scored 19 points or more during the regular season, the Celtics recorded an outstanding 12-3 record. Unsurprisingly, Boston went just 6-9 in contests in which he was held to eight points or less. So, even on a team stacked to the gills with superstar-worthy talent, Morris looks like a potential x-factor worth paying attention to.

J.J. Redick, Philadelphia 76ers
Postseason: 13.6 PPG, 2.8 3PG, 42.4 3P%

This one is pretty simple: The 76ers need J.J. Redick to be elite again.

Philadelphia got away with a couple of poor shooting nights from Redick against the Nets simply because Embiid was too much for Jarrett Allen and company to handle — and yet, even tougher competition awaits. Still, much like Morris, this team relies on Redick to knock down the open shots with consistency — when he does, they’re difficult to beat.

As a stunning subplot in Brooklyn’s Game 1 victory, Redick shot just 2-for-7 in defeat. Games 2 and 3 saw Redick go 7-for-12 and 7-for-17, respectively, and the 76ers won those contests by 22 and 16 points apiece. Later on, during Game 4, Redick managed just 27.3 percent from the floor and Philadelphia barely hung on thanks to a go-ahead bucket from Mike Scott with 20 seconds left. Even during the regular season, the 76ers were 9-4 when Redick hit five or more three-pointers — so rocket science, this is not.

The 76ers may be elite perimeter defenders but their glaring weak spot certainly remains the three-point line on offense. Through the opening round, Philadelphia made just nine three-pointers per game — or, conversely, the 15th-worst mark this postseason. Just below them ranks San Antonio and above them, consecutively, are the seven already-eliminated franchises plus Denver.

It’s an Achilles heel that will absolutely catch up to the 76ers before long, if not by a Toronto team that made the fifth-most three-pointers per game in the regular season. So if Philadelphia wants to be considered a truly elite conference threat, they need to hit more three-pointers, a focus that starts and ends with Redick filling it up on a consistent basis.

Since the trade deadline brought in some serious reinforcements, this potential second round has always seemed like the most likely destination. Without elite defenses and superstar performances abound, all four teams have a strong case to make the Eastern Conference Finals. In a battle of heady wills and adapt head coaching, these two matchups could hinge on an unexpected x-factor making a crucial difference.

Whether that’s from behind the arc on the block, Milwaukee, Toronto, Boston and Philadelphia all need their supporting casts to step up and turn the tide — but who will do it?

Ben Nadeau is a Seattle-based writer in his third year with Basketball Insiders. For five seasons, he covered the Brooklyn Nets for The Brooklyn Game.


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Where Can Dallas Go From Here?

The Dallas Mavericks have had a bad season, what can they do to turn it around?

Zach Dupont



The Dallas Mavericks struck gold in 2018 when they secured Slovenian superstar Luka Doncic in the NBA Draft.

Fast forward to 2021 and Doncic has already emerged as one of the best players in the NBA and a borderline perennial MVP candidate. This season, Doncic is averaging 28.5 points, 9.0 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game and was just named as a starter in the All-Star Game for the second time in a row. But Doncic’s success isn’t leading the Mavericks to wins as Dallas holds a mediocre 17-16 record and currently sits 9th in the Western Conference.

Outside of Doncic, the Mavericks lack the scoring needed to push them over the top. Kristaps Porzingis is Dallas’ second-leading scorer, averaging 20.5 points per game, but he has had trouble staying healthy, playing in only 17 games. Porzingis hasn’t been shooting the ball consistently either, shooting only 35 percent from three-point range so far.

Dallas, as a team, needs help with their outside shooting. The Mavericks are 23rd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, hitting 35.3 percent of their outside shots on the season. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that Dallas shoots the ninth most three-pointer per game at 37.1 three-point attempts – wilder, ranking ninth in three-pointers attempted rate, 42.7 percent of Dallas’ shots come from beyond the arc.

The defense has also been a thorn in the Mavericks’ side this year. At one point, Porzingis was one of the more dynamic shot blockers and interior defenders in the league, but this season he has taken a step back. Dallas rocks the fifth-worst defensive rating in the NBA of 114.4, only beating out the Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trailblazers and Sacramento Kings. Having the fifth-worst defense isn’t good enough if the Mavericks are serious about competing this year.

One player that might help Dallas in both areas is a former player, current Sacramento Kings’ wing Harrison Barnes. Barnes has had a very productive season in Sacramento, averaging 16.1 points per game on 48.9 field goal percentage and 40 percent from three. At 6-foot-8 and 225 lbs, Barnes has the size to defend elite wing players, often doing a modest job for a very bad defensive. Barnes also is capable of operating as a secondary ball-handler with some limited playmaking abilities that could help diversify the Mavericks’ offense.   

Another player rumored to be on the market is Charlotte Hornets guard Terry Rozier. The Hornets have a log jam at the guard position between Rozier, LaMelo Ball and Devonte’ Graham, and Rozier could be a nice fit alongside Doncic in the backcourt. Rozier would immediately improve the Mavericks’ three-point shooting as Scary Terry is knocking down 44.5 percent of his deep hoists. Another benefit of bringing in Rozier is his ability to act as a primary ball-handler, alongside Doncic that would take the pressure off to create a basket every time down the floor. Rozier’s defense does leave a lot to be desired, but he works hard on that end and averages 1.3 steals per game.

Further, two big men known to be on the trade block are Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins and Cleveland Cavaliers center Andre Drummond. In his fourth season, Collins has taken another step forward on both ends of the court, averaging 17.4 points on an ultra-efficient 62.2 true shooting percentage. Collins has also improved as a defender since he first entered the league and is now making a much more positive impact on defense.

This improvement is evident by his defensive rating of 111.7, more than two whole points lower than the Hawks’ team defensive rating of 113.8, per Collins does have some drawbacks though, chief among them is that he’ll hit restricted free agency this offseason in time for a massive payday.

Drummond has sat out since the Cavaliers started looking for a partner, and Dallas presents an exciting option for the 27-year-old center. Drummond is a monster on the glass, averaging 13.5 rebounds per game this season – a number that is actually the lowest he’s put up since 2014-15. For Drummond to fit on this team and help them win games, he’d have to cut back his scoring attempts dramatically.

Drummond’s 17.5 points per game look nice, but when paired with a 50 percent true shooting, it’s much less appealing. However, the potential rim protection and rebounding may be worth the risk of his lackluster offensive numbers – best of all, the asking price should be low too.

A roadblock to acquiring anyone for Dallas is their lack of assets to give back in a trade. The Mavericks don’t own their 2021 or 2023 first-round draft picks, which leaves them only able to trade a first-round pick at the earliest for 2025. Dallas isn’t loaded with prospects to ship away either. Any of the 2020 draft picks would provide some value, but not enough to get a deal done for a significant difference-maker.

Dallas has their generational talent, but they need to build a roster around him if they expect to succeed and lock down a potential-laden future together.

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Anthony Edwards Showing Promising Progression

Anthony Edwards has been a highlight reel every single night but his poor shooting has gotten a lot of attention as well. Chad Smith details why there should be no cause for concern regarding the future of the top overall draft pick.

Chad Smith



There is a lot of pressure that comes with being selected number one overall in the NBA Draft. This is especially true in today’s game, where the top pick is expected to have an immediate impact. Often times when a player is the top pick, they are instantly the most talented player on their team, or at least have the most potential.

This was not the case for Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Karl-Anthony Towns is still the face of the franchise. And, as many highlight plays and rim-destroying dunks that Edwards provides, he is still a raw talent with a lot to learn. To his credit, Edwards not only is well aware of and acknowledges that fact, but has the work ethic and maturity needed to fulfill his potential.

The former Georgia Bulldog is still just 19-years-old, but he has the physical tools to do what a lot of players in the league cannot. He does an excellent job of leveraging his size, speed and quickness to get wherever he wants to on the floor. His rebounding and defense have already improved just 35 games into the season. The glaring weakness in his game is shooting efficiency, which every scouting report on him around the league has written in all caps with red ink.

Edwards is shooting 37 percent overall from the floor, 31 percent from beyond the arc and 80 percent from the free-throw line. The latter indicates that he has the touch but the accuracy just isn’t there from long range. On average, Edwards takes 14 shot attempts per game and six of them are of the three-point variety. Nearly half of his shot attempts come from the three-point line because he is typically wide open, which plays right into the hands of the defense.

Once Edwards gets a grasp of how the game is played and what the defense is trying to do to him, a light will go off in his head. The old saying goes “take what the defense gives you” but it is also important to recognize your own strengths and weaknesses. Based on his work ethic and desire to improve his game, it is only a matter of time before he figures it out.

The numbers show that Edwards is already evolving in other areas of the game. After blocking just two total shots in the month of January, the rookie recorded 12 blocks in February. His 3.2 rebounds per game in January rose to 5.1 last month and his assist average went from 1.9 to 3.3 per game.

Minnesota owns the worst record in the league, but help is on the way. The Timberwolves fired head coach Ryan Saunders after their 7-24 start to the season. Minutes after the news broke, the team already had their new man: Chris Finch, one of the NBA’s top assistant coaches for quite some time. More importantly, Finch has a long history with Gersson Rosas and a solid track record of molding talented young players.

Finch worked with a young Nikola Jokic when he was with the Denver Nuggets and helped develop Anthony Davis when he worked for the New Orleans Pelicans. He joined the Toronto Raptors coaching staff this season and molded Chris Boucher into one of the top candidates for the Most Improved Player Award; it wouldn’t be the first time he pushed a player into the award, either, as he helped Brandon Ingram win the award during the 2019-20 season.

One other notable thing that Finch did while in New Orleans is fix Lonzo Ball’s jump shot. He started with the mechanics. Instead of Ball bringing the ball up from the side of his hip, Finch was able to get him to bring it up in the middle of his body. He also worked with the young guard on his shot selection, both of which have paid large dividends this season.

There will be plenty of tools for Finch to incorporate into his plans to resurrect one of the league’s worst offenses. Along with Towns and Edwards, the Timberwolves have been getting fantastic production from Malik Beasley, who just received a 12-game suspension. Ricky Rubio has been filling in nicely as former All-Star D’Angelo Russell is out with a knee injury. Jarred Vanderbilt, Jarrett Culver, Josh Okogie and rookie Jaden McDaniels are all part of the young nucleus that Finch inherits as well.

Before the coaching change, the Timberwolves scored just 1.15 points per possession on cuts and 0.86 points per possession off of screen plays, per Cleaning The Glass. Both of these ranked bottom five in the league. Finch loves to incorporate off-ball screens and cuts to the basket so this should give them a nice boost, especially with excellent cutters like Edwards and Okogie.

Despite the typical rookie efficiency issues, Edwards has been contributing in other ways. Using his elite athleticism to get to the rim provides Minnesota a multitude of positive outcomes. Edwards can either finish at the rim, create space for others to get open shots, or get fouled and collect points at the free-throw line, being the excellent free-throw shooter that he is.

It is easy to see that Edwards has the desire to win; he cares about winning and the team’s success overall. After their game against the Raptors, all anyone wanted to talk about was his incredible dunk over Yuta Watanabe. Edwards didn’t miss a beat though. “I don’t care about the dunk,” he said. “I couldn’t make shots.” Edwards did not dwell on the moment either, leaving the podium and heading back out onto the court to get more shots up.

There is a long history of guys in this league that have struggled with efficiency, then became decent or above-average shooters. It’s all about hard work, dedication, and repetition. Edwards has all of the ingredients needed to improve that part of his game. That is just one piece of the puzzle in Minnesota but one that could finally steer this franchise in the right direction.

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NBA Most Valuable Player Watch – March 1

With the All-Star break on the horizon, Tristan Tucker updates the MVP ladder, with two former MVP winners picking up steam in recent weeks.

Tristan Tucker



In a typical year, it’s rare to see more than two players in serious contention for the MVP award midway through the season. But, as everyone knows all too well, this is no normal NBA season, with three players alternating between the top three spots on what seems like a daily basis.

With the All-Star break nearly here, it’s time to take a look at how the MVP race is shaping up at the halfway point of the season.

1. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (Previous: 1)

Embiid is at the top of his game right now, averaging 31.5 points, 13.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game in the time since Basketball Insiders’ last ladder update. In that span, Embiid is shooting 47.2 percent from downtown, with a 50-point performance against the Chicago Bulls and a 42-point performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Even more impressive, the 76ers are outscoring opponents by 18.8 points when Embiid is on the floor, which ranks in the 100th percentile of the NBA. That kind of production is literally unmatched, which should give Embiid a clear edge in the MVP race.

Philadelphia is a far more up-and-down team now than they were to begin the year, but Embiid’s continued growth has the 76ers with legitimate title hopes just five years removed from a 10-72 season.

2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (Previous: 3)

In the last two weeks, Jokic embarked on an amazing stretch, averaging 27.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 2.1 steals per game while shooting 56.7 percent from the floor and 55.2 percent from deep. While the Nuggets are still searching for answers to their season, Jokic is doing everything in his power to keep them in the playoff picture.

If Jokic’s play this year was combined with Denver’s 2019-20 record, there’s little doubt that he would be leading the MVP race. However, a lack of consistency (with some embarrassing losses to the Washington Wizards and the injury-riddled Atlanta Hawks) has kept Jokic from outright claiming the top spot.

3. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers (Previous: 2)

James’ case for MVP has stagnated over the last two weeks, with the Lakers losing four-straight in that span. It’s hurt his case, but that isn’t to say that his on-court production hasn’t been ridiculously impressive, averaging 25.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game in the last two weeks.

The Lakers are 14.5 points better when James is on the court and it’s evident to see that “The King” is keeping the Lakers afloat in spite of an injury to co-star Anthony Davis. That being said, James is going to need to cut back on games like those played during the team’s four-game losing streak; he committed eight turnovers against Washington and was a minus-20 against the Utah Jazz.

4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (Previous: 6)

Curry had an incredible February, especially closer to the beginning of the month. On the month, Curry averaged 32.1 points per game while shooting 41.9 percent on 12.8 attempts from three per game. That kind of production is reminiscent of his play in 2016, when he was unanimously awarded MVP.

Curry’s February numbers would have looked even more impressive if it weren’t for mediocre showings against the Miami HEAT, Indiana Pacers and Lakers. But the fact that Curry missed 30 threes combined in those games and still finished shooting better than nearly everyone else in the league is a testament to just how rare of a talent Curry is.

5. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (Previous: Not Ranked)

With injuries to CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, it seemed as if the already struggling Portland Trail Blazers were doomed to fade out of the playoff picture. Despite four straight losses, Lillard is carrying Portland with all of his might to a potential postseason berth, with the Blazers sitting at 18-14.

Over the span of two weeks, Lillard’s been on another planet, averaging 32.2 points and 10.8 assists per game while averaging 13 threes and making 37.2 percent of them. Take a second to think of the names that are starting next to Lillard: Gary Trent Jr., Enes Kanter, Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. Trent and Kanter are playing well, but it’s hard to believe that that lineup is currently the sixth seed in the Western Conference.

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Previous: NR)

The competition at the bottom of the ladder is getting tighter with each passing week, with Kawhi Leonard and Luka Doncic each making promising cases while the HEAT’s Jimmy Butler has been a triple-double machine. But the selection here, at least this week, is Giannis Antetokounmpo, fresh off a game against the Los Angeles Clippers in which he put up 36 points, 14 rebounds and 5 assists.

In the last six games, the Bucks have put together a five-game win streak, with Antetokounmpo averaging 33.6 points, 13 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. “The Greek Freak’s” per game numbers have soared as Milwaukee’s overall success has grown, with his numbers inching closer to that of his MVP seasons. His success was even recognized around the league, with Antetokounmpo most recently named Eastern Conference Player of the Week.

While Antetokounmpo has a lot of work to do to make up lost ground in the MVP race, the Bucks’ recent play should have him among the top vote-getters despite some likely voter fatigue.

The period after the All-Star break is when teams buckle down and commit to playoff runs, separating the pretenders from the contenders. The feeling here is that the same will happen with the MVP race and that one true leader of the pack will soon emerge. Be sure to stay tuned to Basketball Insiders for the next MVP ladder!

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