Connect with us

NBA

NBA Daily: Two Interesting Lineup Trends To Watch

Early in the season, interesting lineup data is starting to emerge. While the sample size is small, these numbers could reveal some places to tinker with or simply monitor going forward. Quinn Davis dives in.

Quinn Davis

Published

on

The NBA season is only two weeks old, but there are already some interesting lineup trends that are worthy of a deeper look. While keeping in mind the obvious sample size concerns, some of these trends could foreshadow themes that will be present throughout the season.

Coaches will experiment with player combinations and minute staggering during these early stages in the hopes of unlocking the best rotation for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. These early-season test runs could reveal a hidden gem or the right buttons that may be pushed further down the line.

These test runs could also reveal a combination that needs more time to develop chemistry or something that should be avoided altogether when the games truly matter.

Let’s take a look at two teams who have been showing interesting trends early on and how it might look as the season goes on.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks were always going to be one of the more compelling teams to watch early in the season. They are still trying to acclimate a 7-foot-3 stretch center along with a few new key bench pieces, all while tailoring their team to a potential generational star in Luka Doncic.

The Mavericks have performed well to start the season, but there have been some concerns regarding the play of Kristaps Porzingis and his role within the offense. Here are the net rating numbers that have popped out regarding the Doncic-Porzingis combo, from Cleaning the Glass.

Doncic On, Porzingis On: -6.5 Net

Doncic On, Porzingis Off: +23.4 Net

Doncic Off, Porzingis On: -10.4 Net

Doncic Off, Porzingis Off: +28.8 Net

It’s important to reiterate that these don’t numbers don’t by any means spell doom for the Mavericks. Nor should anyone advocate for the permanent benching of Porzingis. What they do reveal is a duo that needs more time to learn each other’s tendencies and preferences.  They also show an opportunity for Carlisle to tinker a bit with the staggering of the two stars and see how to best surround each player while they are on the court solo.

That net rating number when both Doncic and Porzingis are off the court is particularly noisy, as the Mavericks have shot an unsustainable 50 percent from deep in the 80 possessions without the two stars.

The number worthy of the most concern would be the minus-6.5 net rating with the two stars together. The skill sets of each player bring exciting possibilities to the offensive playbook, but so far they seem to be just slightly out of sync. 

This could be due to the understandable nature of players to err on the side of unselfishness when first joining forces with another star player. Doncic and Porzingis both may find themselves playing less aggressive while sharing the court in an effort to not dominate the ball and take away from the other’s talents. This tepidness usually fades over the course of the season, with the help of coaching and each player finding the right balance.

The Mavericks could look to use Porzingis more as a screener to keep him involved while not taking away from Doncic. Porzingis’s outside shooting ability and length make him a dangerous roll man in the pick-and-roll game. So far this season, the Mavericks have scored 1.25 points per possession with Porzingis as the roll man, per NBA.com

Those plays have only accounted for 19 percent of the possessions with Porzingis on the court, so an uptick there could be forthcoming.

There have been some flashes of cohesion between the duo. Take this nifty over-the-head pass Doncic throws right on the money out of a quick pick-and-pop to Porzingis. 

Plays like this could become more numerous as the season goes on. When you factor in Doncic’s willingness as a passer and basketball intelligence, it’s easy to see the duo developing a synergy with more game time together.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs came into the season in the opposite situation as the Mavericks, bringing back most of the same roster as last season. The two teams have similar lineup trends though, as the Spurs have been blitzing opponents when their two stars are off the court. Here is the net rating data as it relates to DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, from Cleaning the Glass:

DeRozan On, Aldridge On: -0.8 Net

DeRozan On, Aldridge Off: -6.8 Net

DeRozan Off, Aldridge On: -30.8 Net

DeRozan Off, Aldridge Off: +31.9 Net

The concern here for the Spurs is that this trend is not totally the result of new players trying to acclimate. This roster was mostly together all of last season, and the team had the same success when both DeRozan and Aldridge were resting.

There is one new variable here — the return of Dejounte Murray. Murray has had a profound effect on the team’s defense since his return. With all three of DeRozan, Aldridge and Murray on the court, the Spurs are locking opponents up with a 97.1 defensive rating. When DeRozan and Aldridge play without Murray, that number rises to 108.1.

Murray’s lack of shooting does hurt the offense, however, as their offensive rating falls to a flat 100 when those three all play together. 

All of this data is, of course, subject to the normal small sample-size caveats, but the fact that the offense is exhibiting the same jump as last season when the bench takes the floor is something to monitor.

Last season, the offense succeeded on the back of the San Antonio bench’s three-point shooting. This season, the bench has actually shot worse than the starters from deep. The bench has, however, managed to generate easy looks at the rim. So far, the Spurs have finished 86.2 percent of their looks at the rim when both Aldridge and DeRozan are on the bench, per Cleaning the Glass.

The constant ball and player movement exhibited by the bench has been able to break down opponents in the paint. While the three-point shooting hasn’t been great, the spacing provided by the shooters in that lineup has still been tough to defend.

If this trend continues into the season, it will be interesting to see where coach Gregg Popovich takes this rotation. It seems unlikely that any of Murray, DeRozan or Aldridge would go to the bench. There could be some tweaks to the other two starting spots that currently feature Bryn Forbes and Trey Lyles.

Both of these teams will have ample time to tinker with their rotations and find the perfect grouping. In the Mavericks’ case, it may just take a few months of playing together for Doncic and Porzingis to truly mesh.

For the Spurs, it may require more lineup juggling to best figure out how to surround their best players and maximize their potential.

Both of these teams should be competing for a playoff spot in a tough Western Conference, so the decisions that both Carlisle and Popovich make will be interesting to watch.

Quinn Davis is a contributor for Basketball Insiders. He is a former collegiate track runner who currently resides in Philadelphia.

Advertisement




Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

NBA

NBA Daily: The Evolution of Championship Teams

Win or lose, reaching the NBA Finals is a monumental achievement for any team. Getting to the top of the mountain is great, but staying there is the real challenge. Chad Smith looks into why the championship window has gotten even tighter for these organizations.

Chad Smith

Published

on

The 2019-20 season is rounding into form as the final two months of the regular season begin to pan out. While the natural reaction is to pay attention to the contending teams at the top of the standings, it is important to recognize the teams at the very bottom of each conference. Those teams are the Cleveland Cavaliers (16-41) in the East and the Golden State Warriors (12-46) in the West.

It is no secret what has been going on with the Warriors this year. Injuries have decimated this group, as all three of their superstars from their championship runs have gone down or went elsewhere. Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson both had devastating injuries in back-to-back games in the NBA Finals. Durant ultimately left the Bay Area and traveled east to Brooklyn.

The Splash Brothers remain, but Stephen Curry hasn’t played since October and the team has stated that Thompson will not play at all this season as he continues his rehab. Curry is aiming to return to the floor after this weekend, but there isn’t anything to play for this late into the season.

Similar to the Warriors losing Durant, the Cavs were dealt a major blow when LeBron James left for the second time. His move to the Los Angeles Lakers was justified after he delivered on a championship for his home city. That trophy came with a cost though, as Cleveland has been in purgatory ever since his departure.

Scraping the bottom of the barrel is one thing, but the Cavs have truly hit rock bottom. It may have been doomed from the start, as they made a surprising move in hiring John Beilein. The 67-year old coach was given a five-year contract, though he had never coached a single game in the NBA. Naturally, the fit was less than ideal and after some serious bumps in the road, the two parted ways after just 54 games.

In the four years that LeBron spent during his second stint in Cleveland, they went to The Finals every single year. In their first season without him last year, they finished 19-63, which was the second-worst record in the league just ahead of the circus in New York.

The Warriors and Cavs met in the Finals in four consecutive years from 2015-18. The Warriors made a fifth consecutive trip last year, where they fell apart against the Toronto Raptors.

Toronto had been the punch line of playoff jokes for a number of years, and for good reason. They always came out of the gate stumbling, losing their first game of a series almost like clockwork. That ended last year when Masai Ujiri made the bold move to acquire Kawhi Leonard. They understood the risk of moving one of their most beloved and loyal players in DeMar DeRozan for what would ultimately be a one-year rental.

That one year is all the Raptors needed though, as they pushed all of their chips towards the middle of the table. These types of bold and risky moves are almost a necessity in today’s game, where you need top-tier talent more than ever. Player empowerment and the “business” of the league can coexist — in the right environment.

We saw a prime example of this even before the Golden State era. Pat Riley has always held this stance and proved it in Miami. After getting LeBron and Chris Bosh to team up with Dwyane Wade, the Miami HEAT were instantly labeled a super team. The players invoked their power, but they also understood the business side of things and made it work.

Riley has swung more deals since that dynasty ended, with Jimmy Butler as his primary focus for the immediate future. Their core looks promising, but Miami will not be patient and wait for everyone to develop. Even as one of the top teams in the East, they are not afraid of cashing in these resources in order to win now, because that is ultimately what this is all about. Winning. Not in a year or two, but now.

No one needs to tell Daryl Morey that, as he has drastically re-shaped his Rockets team seemingly every year. Forget about the future, he is dealing superstars left and right, making any move necessary to prepare his team to win this season.

That approach may be something that has held the Boston Celtics back in recent years. Danny Ainge has been hell-bent on trading away their future draft picks. While incredibly enticing at the time, those picks have now flattened as the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings have improved. The hesitation to deal those future picks for win-now players in their prime may come back to haunt him.

Boston still has an exceptional team loaded with talent, but it just feels as though they are missing something. Obviously, the move for Kyrie Irving didn’t pan out, nor did the acquisition of Al Horford, but their core five players are sensational, and Brad Stevens has shown that he is capable of leading a team to the top of the mountain.

Looking at the team with the best record in the league, the Milwaukee Bucks appear to be doing things right. They have arguably the best player in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is likely to have back-to-back MVP seasons in Milwaukee. They are clearly not a large-market team, but they have been operating like one. They understand the importance of all of the factors surrounding this team.

The number one item at the top of the list is to make Giannis feel like it is a place where he can win. As he enters free agency, the last thing they want him to think is that the grass might be greener someplace else. Mike Budenholzer is considered one of the five best coaches in the league. He has figured out how to use the Greek Freak to his maximum value. Jon Horst and the front office have done a marvelous job of surrounding him with the tools he needs.

The willingness to move on from such a promising young talent like Malcolm Brogdon is evidence that they understand the value of winning right now. If they can use the draft pick they acquired to land another top-level player on this roster, it will pay off in a big way. If anything else, it will show Giannis that they are committed to making any moves necessary to keep him there.

The main storyline heading into this season was the depth and the balance of the league. There were not one or two teams that would reign supreme for the entire season. The Western Conference is absolutely loaded, and things are just as competitive with the top six teams in the Eastern Conference. The area of separation is very slim. The trade deadline has come and gone, but buyout candidates and deals in the summer will be critical to the success of teams this season and next.

The win-now mentality has trickled down from front offices to the players. They each now have the power to drastically alter the landscape of the league.

No one is a safe bet anymore, not even the San Antonio Spurs and their 22-year playoff streak.

Continue Reading

NBA

NBA Daily: 76ers Should Look To Shake Milton For Point Guard Duties

With Ben Simmons out for an extended period, the Philadelphia 76ers will need to rely on a committee of potential ball-handlers to fill those minutes. Quinn Davis looks at one of those candidates and why he should get the bulk of that responsibility.

Quinn Davis

Published

on

During the Philadelphia 76ers’ first practice following the All-Star break, Ben Simmons felt some discomfort in his back. The team initially listed him as questionable for their game against the Brooklyn Nets before ruling him out after a pre-game warmup.

The official designation at the time was back tightness, a seemingly short-term nuisance. Concerns were further alleviated when Simmons was listed as probable for a showdown against the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday before starting that game.

Sixers fans’ halcyon lasted no more than five minutes, as Simmons was sent to the locker room early in the Bucks game. He was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the game and reports followed saying that Simmons would be given an MRI on Sunday.

On Tuesday, it was announced that Simmons had suffered a nerve impingement and would be re-evaluated in two weeks. The actual timeframe for his return to action will likely not be decided on until that re-evaluation.

With Simmons out for an extended period, the team will need contributions from an ensemble cast of ball-handlers. Brown was asked before the game about his decision on who will take the lion’s share of those duties. He answered that it will be “by committee,” citing Josh Richardson, Alec Burks, Shake Milton and Raul Neto as possible candidates.

Out of those four, Milton may be the best option. His combination of point guard skills and three-point shooting make him a good candidate to play with the starters as he did Monday against the Hawks.

Milton’s start was not the only surprise, as Al Horford was also moved back in the starting lineup after being relegated to the bench just before the All-Star break. The decision was prudent as that group got off to a hot start and powered the Sixers to a 41 point first quarter.

Milton was asked after the game about the conversation that preceded his starting nod.

“There was no conversation,” Milton said. “He just came in and slapped my name on the board, that’s how I found out.”

Milton was then asked whether there was any specific preparation for the role.

“No, but it’s my job to be ready for whatever the team needs me to do, I feel comfortable on the ball, I feel comfortable off the ball. When someone goes down, and you don’t want to see injuries, but it’s next man up.”

Milton looked prepared enough, albeit against one of the league’s worst defenses. In 26 minutes, he tallied 7 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists while tying for a team-high plus-21.

While Milton is a riskier play than veterans Burks and Neto, he has a clear advantage in upside. He has shown an improved ability to get to the rim this season and has flashed nice passing ability in tight spaces.

One of the keys to running the offense while Simmons is out will be the ability to get the ball to Joel Embiid on time and on target.  Here, the Sixers run one of their more frequently used plays with Richardson setting the screen for Embiid to roll to the rim. The Hawks get caught up on the screen, Milton recognizes that Embiid has sprung free and makes the pass. It’s a tad high, but Embiid hauls it in and gets the layup.

The Sixers also like to run dribble handoffs with their star center. None have perfected it as JJ Redick did in the previous two seasons, but Milton could be useful in this action. This was not on display Monday night, but they have run it with Milton earlier in this season. Here is an example from an earlier contest against the Hawks last month.

Damian Jones jumps out to contest the shot, so Milton finds the rolling Embiid for the dunk.

The obvious caveat here is that both of the above clips were from games against one of the league’s worst defenses. Milton will face more resistance against other teams who will not allow Embiid to get a wide-open role to the rim, leaving Milton with the task of either driving or hitting the pull-up jumper.

His proficiency in those plays will certainly be a factor in his playing time. His passing overall is solid and maybe the best out the Sixers’ backup guard contingent. He can read defenses well thanks to his experience as a point guard through college and in his time in the G League. If he begins to flash close to the pull-up scoring ability of Burks, he will quickly rise to the top of this group.

On the other side of the ball, Milton has held his own. He came into the season with defense being one of his most apparent weaknesses, but he has worked to improve on that end and was tested on Monday against some solid offensive players. While Milton isn’t close to the defender that Simmons and Richardson are, his length and effort level can make him serviceable on that end.

Milton was even tasked with guarding Trae Young for brief periods. Young can make any defender look silly, but Milton managed to play him tight. In this play, he does a good job of sticking with Young around the screen and recovering to block the floater.

Of course, things are a little easier when a player of Embiid’s caliber is patrolling the paint. The perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate has been upping his defensive intensity the last few games, and on the above play makes Trae Young think twice about going all the way to the basket or attempt the lob.

Basketball Insiders asked Brown after the Hawks game about the confidence he has in Milton’s defense.

“He comes in and plays as if he belongs,” Brown said. “He can guard better than I originally thought. He’s got some legit point guard thinking in his psyche and I think he can guard multiple positions.”

And, further, on his defensive improvement:

“Just having a year being around players who are as good as they are,” Milton stated. “When you’re going up against guys like these every day, it forces you to get better and it forces you to work harder.”

Given the success in Philadelphia’s first game, Milton will likely stay as the starter. With Simmons out for an extended period, Brown should stick with him in that spot to foster some chemistry between the young guard and Embiid.

If Milton continues to play well, he could carve out a role for when Simmons returns to the lineup. It’s certainly possible that a tightened playoff rotation leads to Richardson being the only guard on the floor when Simmons sits. If Brown feels more ball-handling is needed, though, it will likely come down to Milton and Burks for that spot.

Burks has the edge in experience, which is usually one of the biggest factors in rotation decisions come April. Burks also is a proven scorer out of the pick-and-roll, an area where the Sixers lack. With that said, Milton’s all-around play could be more valuable for a team with two stars that he will likely be sharing the court with.

There is time for those decisions, though. For now, the Sixers will need to find a way to go on a run and secure home-court without their star point guard.

Taking a chance on Milton’s upside may be their best shot.

Continue Reading

NBA

NBA Daily: Samanic, Johnson Impressing With Austin Spurs

David Yapkowitz speaks with two young San Antonio Spurs standouts, Luka Samanic and Keldon Johnson, about their time in Austin with the G League.

David Yapkowitz

Published

on

For rookies starting their NBA careers in today’s league, their journey is a little bit different than in the past.

In prior years, rookies who weren’t in the rotation immediately were often buried on the bench and relegated to garbage time minutes. It could be a frustrating and difficult situation for players used to being team focal points in college or high school.

What’s changed within the past decade is the way NBA teams have used the G League. The G League has grown tremendously to the point where almost every NBA team has its own affiliate. The New Orleans Pelicans became the 28th team to have an affiliate this season with the Erie Bayhawks, leaving only the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers without a G League team.

More and more NBA teams have begun using their G League affiliates to get their young players playing time and development that they wouldn’t receive by staying the entire season with their NBA parent club.

One team that has taken full advantage in recent years of having a G League affiliate is the San Antonio Spurs. When the Columbus Dragons of the then NBA D League relocated to Austin, Texas, they were purchased by the Spurs and renamed the Austin Toros. They’ve since changed their name to the Austin Spurs.

Throughout their team history, Austin has had several call-ups to the NBA, and San Antonio has used its affiliate to get young players seasoning and development. Within the past five years, Kyle Anderson, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Lonnie Walker, all Spurs first-round draft picks, saw extensive time in the G League as rookies.

Coming into this season, San Antonio had two first-round picks, Luka Samanic and Keldon Johnson, who didn’t figure to be in the rotation right away. To this point, Samanic has yet to suit up for San Antonio and Johnson has played in only four games. Both have spent the majority of their time in Austin.

Samanic was an intriguing prospect with a bit of a versatile skill set when the Spurs made him the 19th overall pick in last summer’s draft. He can score in the paint, handle the ball a bit and has improving range on his jump shot.

A native of Croatia, Samanic played professionally in Slovenia and Spain before declaring for the 2019 NBA draft. As a youth, he participated in the Adidas EuroCamp, an NBA pre-draft camp, and he had a few Division 1 schools monitoring him. He opted to play professionally while preparing for the NBA.

He’s spent the entirety of his rookie year thus far in Austin, where he’s been adjusting to the American pro game.

“It’s much different. I go from game-to-game and we practice a lot so that’s made it easier,” Samanic told Basketball Insiders. “Being with this group has helped me a lot, too. Just being more physical, coming here and adjusting to the physicality.”

In 31 games with Austin, Samanic is putting up 15.3 points per game on 43.6 percent shooting from the field to go with 7.6 rebounds. He’s had several double-doubles and after struggling a little bit early in the season, seems to have found a bit of a rhythm. He’s shooting only 31.9 percent from three-point range on the year, but in January, he was at 34 percent.

He credits the staff in Austin with helping his game and getting him adjusted to NBA style play. He knows that this season is mostly about development in Austin, but he does have the goal of making a difference for San Antonio by next year.

“I can bring the same things I bring to Austin. Whatever [Gregg Popovich] needs me to do, I’ll do,” Samanic told Basketball Insiders. “I just want to adjust as much and as quick as possible. Get experience and then next year, I’m trying to be in the rotation in San Antonio.”

In Johnson’s case, he’s been brought up to San Antonio for a few games here and there, but has also spent the majority of his rookie season with Austin. He was a highly-touted prospect at Oak Hill Academy and played only one season at Kentucky before declaring for the NBA draft.

Once projected to be a lottery pick, Johnson has the ability to be an impact player on the wing. He can put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. He has a strong inside game too and has the tools to be an effective perimeter defender. He’s shown flashes in the G League of why he was considered to be a steal when the San Antonio grabbed him with the 29th pick.

He, too, credits the G League with helping him adjust to the NBA level and is confident he can contribute to San Antonio’s rotation if needed.

“I think the main things are pace and just staying in shape. Getting up down, getting my body right and eating right,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “Just playing hard and playing defense. Everything else will come in time. As long as I can be myself and do what I know I can do, I’ll be fine.”

Johnson has been one of the top standouts for Austin this season. He’s started in 29 of the 30 games he’s played in the G League and put up 20 points per game while shooting 52.3 percent from the field, 5.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists. The one area he stands to improve upon is his outside shooting, as he’s only converting on 23.3 percent of his long-range attempts.

He was recently named to the Western Conference mid-season All-G-League team and if his performances are any indication, the Spurs could have another diamond in the rough on their hands. So far, he’s been impressed with the level of competition he’s faced up against in the G League. He knows that since he has an NBA contract, he’s getting everyone’s best shot night in and night out.

“I think it’s everything you can ask for. You’re playing against great players, night in and night out,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “You don’t get to take days off. Everybody is grinding, they’re hungry, we come in and they’re ready to play. You’ve got to be ready every night.”

The G League regular season ends next month, but Austin is one of the top teams in the league and could be playing into mid-April in the G League Finals. Johnson will likely be assigned to Austin for the duration of their playoff run, making next season his opportunity to get minutes in San Antonio.

For now, he’s continuing to work on his game and be ready for whenever his name should be called upon.

“I just want to get better and be the best Keldon Johnson I can be,” Johnson told Basketball Insiders. “Throughout my rookie season, just staying consistent is the main thing. Just get better honestly, that’s my main goal.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement
Online Betting Site Betway
Advertisement
American Casino Guide
NJ Casino
NJ Casino

NBA Team Salaries

Advertisement

CloseUp360

Insiders On Twitter

NBA On Twitter

Trending Now