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Big Summer Ahead for the Miami HEAT

The Miami HEAT’s season is over. Now, they enter one of the most important offseasons in franchise history.

Alex Kennedy



Basketball Insiders caught up with center Jakob Poeltl, who’s projected to be a lottery pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.

Big Summer Ahead for the Miami HEAT

The Miami HEAT’s season came to an end on Sunday when they were eliminated by the Toronto Raptors in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

All things considered, it was a successful campaign for the HEAT, who were without Chris Bosh (blood clot) for the second half of the season and Hassan Whiteside (knee) for the end of their second-round series. Miami finished the regular season with 48 wins and secured the third seed in the East. They had the NBA’s seventh-ranked defense (allowing just 101.6 points per 100 possessions) and 12th-ranked offense (scoring 104.2 points per 100 possessions).

Now, Miami’s focus will shift to one of the most important offseasons in franchise history. Depending on what happens this summer, the HEAT could have a drastically different roster when next season begins.

As of right now, Chris Bosh ($23,741,060), Goran Dragic ($15,891,725), Josh McRoberts ($5,782,450) and Justise Winslow ($2,593,440) are the only HEAT players with guaranteed contracts for next season. Josh Richardson and Briante Weber will likely be back as well since both players are on bargain deals under $1 million, but each player has a non-guaranteed salary for the next two seasons.

Everyone else currently on Miami’s roster will be a free agent on July 1. Dwyane Wade, Hassan Whiteside, Luol Deng, Joe Johnson, Udonis Haslem, Gerald Green, Amar’e Stoudemire and Dorell Wright will be unrestricted free agents. Tyler Johnson will be a restricted free agent once Miami issues a $1,180,431 qualifying offer.

Assuming Richardson and Weber are back as expected, Miami will have $50,938,378 on the books for next season. With the NBA’s salary cap rising to $92 million, the HEAT could have a lot of flexibility this summer. However, if they do have significant money to spend, that would mean that they didn’t retain some of their key free agents and they’ll have to replace that production. It will be very difficult for Miami to keep their own players and add a marquee free agent (such as Kevin Durant, whom they’ve been rumored to pursue), although Pat Riley and his staff are very good at maneuvering under the cap and will try to get creative.

Entering the offseason, some of Miami’s best players have uncertain futures.

Bosh’s availability has been up in the air since February, when he experienced a second blood clot. He tried to make a comeback in the postseason, but the HEAT ruled him out. Everyone around the organization is hoping the 11-time All-Star can play as soon as possible, but no timetable has been given for Bosh’s return. This is a serious and complex health issue, so it’s unclear when (or if) Bosh will be able to take the court again (especially if he remains on blood thinners, as I wrote about here). Bosh is one of the best bigs in the game, and his status will greatly impact the HEAT’s future. He has three guaranteed years remaining on his contract. In the event of a medical retirement, Bosh’s contract would come off of Miami’s books on February 9, 2017 (one year from the date of his last game). However, we hope that Bosh’s terrific career doesn’t end in that fashion.

Whiteside is the most interesting free agent for Miami, since they don’t have his full Bird rights. That means they have to use their cap space to sign him (rather than going over the cap to re-sign him, as teams can typically do with their own players). The 26-year-old averaged 14.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 3.7 blocks in 29.1 minutes per game, emerging as one of the best centers in the NBA. In fact, he led all centers in Player Efficiency Rating (25.7) and Win Shares (10.3) this season. Now, Whiteside seems poised to sign a maximum contract – either with the HEAT or a new team. A number of teams are reportedly preparing to pursue Whiteside such as the Los Angeles Lakers, Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets among others. As previously mentioned, it would be difficult for Miami to keep the big man and add a new star since they must re-sign Whiteside using cap space. Riley could have a tough decision on his hands if a marquee player wants to join the HEAT.

Wade inked a one-year deal worth $20 million to stay in Miami last summer. That worked out perfectly for him since the cap is rising drastically and he’s coming off of a strong campaign in which he was healthy enough to play in 88 of 96 games. Wade is beloved in Miami and has played there for all 13 years of his NBA career. It seems likely that he’ll stay with the HEAT, especially considering he was talking about next season after the Game 7 loss. However, crazier things have happened. If Miami is hesitant to commit to Wade long-term since he’s 34 years old and has a history of injuries, there will be plenty of teams lining up to meet with Wade. The three-time champion averaged 19 points, 4.6 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals during the regular season, and 21.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and a block in the playoffs. Wade silenced the critics who said he could no longer play at a high level, and now he’ll get a significant pay day.

Deng is also coming off of a strong postseason, but it’s unclear if the HEAT intend to re-sign the 31-year-old. The team drafted Winslow with the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft and the 20-year-old is poised to move into the starting lineup at some point. If Deng’s price becomes too expensive, it’s possible that Miami will let him walk and hope Winslow and others can replace his production.

Joe Johnson, Green, Stoudemire and Wright all joined Miami at some point over the last year on bargain contracts (with none making over $947,276) in hopes of making a title run. It’s unclear which of the veteran contributors (if any) will re-sign with the HEAT. Of this group, Johnson (24 starts) and Stoudemire (36 starts) would likely be the toughest to replace (although Johnson is 34 years old and entering his 16th season, and Stoudemire is 33 years old and entering his 15th season).

Haslem, like Wade, has spent his entire 12-year career with Miami. After the Game 7 loss, the 35-year-old made it clear that he hopes to re-sign with the HEAT and wants to retire in Miami (which is also where he was born). Riley will surely welcome him back, but it’s hard to imagine him getting anything more than a minimum deal since he played in just 37 games this season and averaged seven minutes per contest. He’s a three-time champion and a great guy to have in the locker room, but it’s clear that his playing days are nearing an end.

Tyler Johnson is the team’s lone restricted free agent and he has said he wants to return. Last season, he was called up from the D-League on a 10-day contract and played well enough to stick around. This year, Johnson played in 36 games and averaged 24 minutes per night. He would’ve played more, but he was forced to miss three months due to shoulder surgery. When healthy, the 24-year-old put up a solid 8.7 points, three rebounds and 2.2 assists while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 38 percent from three-point range. It’s unlikely Miami will overpay for Johnson since it’s not too difficult to find a back-up point guard in today’s NBA, but they’ll likely retain Johnson if his price tag is reasonable since he’s comfortable with Erik Spoelstra’s system and has produced when given a chance to play.

At the moment, Miami doesn’t have a selection in the 2016 NBA Draft. Their first-round pick (No. 24) is owed to the Philadelphia 76ers and their second-round pick (No. 51) is owed to the Boston Celtics. It’s typically not too hard for teams to acquire a pick if they desire, but that may be more difficult than usual with the salary cap rising to $92 million (especially in the case of first-round picks). Rookie-scale contracts won’t increase with the rising salary cap since those numbers were locked in during the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations in 2011, so talented rookies are huge bargains and the best bang for a team’s buck.

With no picks in the upcoming draft and so few players under contract, it seems unlikely that Miami can go the “splashy trade” route to improve their squad. Sure, they could move someone to free up additional cap space, but any kind of blockbuster deal seems very unlikely.

Free agency is where the franchise will have to do really well in order to remain one of the top teams in the East. When the calendar flips to July 1, keep an eye on the HEAT because Riley and his staff have plenty of important decisions to make this offseason.

Alex Kennedy is the Managing Editor of Basketball Insiders and this is his 10th season covering the NBA. He is a member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association.


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NBA Daily: The Golden State Warriors Need to Enter Rest Mode

With a bevy of injuries to their stars, the Golden State Warriors should rest up the remainder of the regular season to avoid any playoff letdowns.

Dennis Chambers



After a three-year-long run of dominating the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are showing some cracks in their armor.

Granted, those cracks aren’t a result of a botched system or poor play, but rather the injury bug biting the team in full force as they come down the regular season stretch.

First, it was Steph Curry and the ankle that’s bothered him all season — and for most of his career — when he tweaked it yet again on March 8 against the San Antonio Spurs. Golden State announced he would miss at least four games. Then it was Klay Thompson, who fractured his thumb three days later against the Minnesota Timberwolves — he’ll miss at least two weeks.

Now it’s Kevin Durant. Last year’s Finals MVP suffered an incomplete rib cartilage fracture and was ruled out of Friday’s game against the Sacramento Kings. Durant is expected to be sidelined for at least two weeks. The Warriors would go on to lose that contest 95-93.

In about two weeks time, the Warriors went from having one of the most formidable offenses and scoring trios in the entire league, to having  Quinn Cook and Nick Young logging starter minutes.

Luckily for the Warriors, they’ve built up a big enough lead in the standings to achieve a 52-17 record, good for second place in the Western Conference. But the issue for the remainder of the season now becomes how healthy will the Warriors be come playoff time?

Curry and Durant have injury histories. Curry particularly has been bothered by this ankle since he entered the league. Without either of them, the Warriors — while still incredibly talented — will be on a completely even playing field with the Houston Rockets, and possibly other teams in the gauntlet that will be the Western Conference playoffs.

The bigger issue on top of the pending injury concerns becomes whether the Warriors should just pack it in for the rest of the regular season, and regroup for another expected title run.

Steve Kerr doesn’t seem to be thinking that way, however.

“All these injuries seem to be temporary,” Kerr told reporters. “A couple weeks, a week, two weeks – whatever. We’re in good shape. We’ve just got to survive this next slate of games and hopefully, start getting guys back and get rolling again for the playoffs.”

That’s true. None of the aforementioned injuries seem to be anything more serious than a few weeks of rest and relaxation. But that’s assuming the best case scenario for these players.

Should we assume that the Warriors are without their scoring trio for the next couple of weeks as their health updates have indicated, that would put their return roughly around April 1. At that time, Golden State would have six games remaining on their schedule. Four coming against playoff teams (Oklahoma City, Indiana, New Orleans, and Utah) with the other two games against Phoenix.

After missing the last few weeks on the court, with injuries that most likely won’t be at 100 percent, tossing their most valuable contributors back into the fray against a slate of playoff teams probably isn’t the smartest idea.

At this point, the Warriors postseason position is locked up. They likely won’t take the top seed away from Houston, and their lead is big enough to keep their second seed intact regardless of who’s on the court. The only thing left now is the determining who Golden State will play in the first round. With the revolving carousel that is the playoff standings out West, that’s anybody’s guess right now.

The only thing that’s certain is whichever team coming into Oracle Arena for that first round will be battle tested and talented based off of the dogfight they had to survive just to make the playoffs. The last thing the Warriors need to be is a banged up in a postseason with their first opponent smelling blood in the water.

In all likelihood, the Warriors — should everything go according to plan — will play the Houston Rockets for a chance to return to their fourth straight NBA Finals. Only this time, a potential Game 7 won’t be at Oracle Arena. It will be in downtown Houston, at the Toyota Center.

An advantage as big as the Warriors’ homecourt can never be understated. Operating in a do-or-die situation away from home will be newfound territory for this bunch. Regardless of talent or team success, at that point, it’s anybody’s game.

It won’t be easy for the Golden State Warriors as they try to extend their dynasty’s reign. This might be their most difficult year yet.

Durant, in his own words, can’t even laugh right now without feeling pain. The league’s only unanimous MVP is operating on one and a half ankles, and the team’s second Splash Brother has an injury on his shooting hand.

Resting up the team’s stars should be the team’s top priority right now, at risk of entering the postseason hobbled. Track record means nothing if the Warriors don’t have their full arsenal at disposal when the games matter most.

Hey, a 16-seed finally won a first-round game in the NCAA Tournament. Anything is possible on a basketball court, and the Warriors should do everything possible to ensure they’re not the next major upset candidate in line.

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Fixing The Detroit Pistons

David Yapkowitz looks at how the fading Pistons can turn things around moving forward.

David Yapkowitz



We wrap this week up with another installment of our “Fixing” series here at Basketball Insiders. The next team up is the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons came into this season with playoff aspirations after a disappointing 2016-17 campaign that saw them regress instead of building on their playoff appearance the season before. To begin the season, they looked like they were on their way to accomplishing that objective. Then Reggie Jackson got hurt and the season began spiraling out of control.

They tried to inject some life into the team by trading for Blake Griffin, but it hasn’t worked out as expected. The Pistons have gone 8-12 since acquiring Griffin and the postseason looks like a pipe dream at this point.

What Is Working

Not a whole lot. Despite trading for a superstar player, the Pistons have tumbled down to the point where playoffs are looking extremely unlikely.

If there’s one thing that’s a welcome sight, it’s the bounce back of Andre Drummond. After being named to his first All-Star team in 2015-16, Drummond had a bit of a let down the following season. This season, he was once again an All-Star while putting up career-highs in rebounds (15.7) and assists (3.2). Drummond is still only 24 years old and has his best basketball years ahead of him.

The Pistons have also received encouraging signs from rookie Luke Kennard. A lottery pick in last summer’s draft, Kennard he’s been one of the few bright spots at times for the Pistons. About a week ago, his playing time had diminished some and he racked up a few DNP’s, but Stan Van Gundy has since reinserted him into the rotation.

They’ve also gotten solid production out of Reggie Bullock. When Bullock came over to the Pistons in a trade with the Phoenix Suns almost three years ago, he was little more than a seldom-used wing with the potential to become a solid 3&D guy. This has been his year, however. He’s the best shooter on the team at 43.5 percent from the three-point line. His numbers, 10.8 points per game and 49.1 percent shooting from the field, are career-highs.

What Needs To Change

Quite a bit. Acquiring Griffin was a move the Pistons needed to make. On the verge of losing control of the season, they needed to make a move to try and turn things around. It’s been a disaster thus far, however. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and although they’re in ninth place, they’re falling farther and farther away from eighth.

Who the Pistons are really missing is Reggie Jackson. Ish Smith, who has proven himself beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is an NBA player, just isn’t Jackson. They desperately need Jackson’s playmaking abilities to help take the pressure off everyone else. Even if he returns this season, it’s already too late. The Pistons need to focus on getting him healthy and ready for next season.

The Pistons also need to improve their offense. They’re in the bottom half of the league in both points per game (25th) and offensive rating (24th). A big part of that is Jackson’s absence, but they could also benefit from additional outside shooting. Right now they have one long-range threat on the roster and that’s Bullock.

Focus Area: The Draft

To make matters worse, the Pistons will likely give up their draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of the Griffin trade. The only way the Clippers wouldn’t acquire the Pistons’ pick this year is if it falls in the top four, and that’s not going to happen.

The Pistons will have a second-round pick though. The draft is never 100 percent guaranteed, and the second round is even more of a crapshoot, but talented players can definitely be found. That’s what the Pistons’ main objective in the draft should be. It sounds silly, but they truly need to buckle down and do their homework in hopes of finding that one overlooked guy in the second round. That’s pretty much all they have to look forward to come draft night.

Focus Area: Free Agency

The Pistons are going to have a couple of minor decisions to make this summer regarding their free agents. Jameer Nelson, James Ennis, and Anthony Tolliver are all unrestricted free agents. Out of the three, Ennis has given the team the best on-court production, but it isn’t necessary that any of them are brought back.

Bullock and Dwight Buycks have non-guaranteed contracts, and those are the two guys that the Pistons should work towards bringing back in the fold. Both should have their contracts guaranteed for the following season. Bullock is their only three-point threat. Buycks began the season as a two-way contract player splitting time between the Pistons and the Grand Rapids Drive of the G-League. He’s since been converted to a standard NBA contract and has done enough to earn his spot on the team next year.

In terms of adding new players to the roster, as mentioned before, the Pistons need outside shooting. Marco Belinelli and Wayne Ellington are possible options that the Pistons might be able to afford. Joe Harris is another option, but it will be interesting to see what the market is for him after the strong season he’s been having in Brooklyn.

It’s tough to gauge the Pistons’ true potential without Jackson. If he returns before the season ends, it will be too small a sample size to accurately assess the team. There are only 14 games left. Although things look pretty bleak right now, it can’t be argued that injuries haven’t played a big role in the Pistons disappointing season.

The team deserves a shot at seeing how a healthy Jackson, Griffin, and Drummond trio looks on the court together. If they start off next season the same way despite all three being healthy and in the lineup, then it would be time for serious changes.

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Fixing The Chicago Bulls

Spencer Davies says the Bulls have a long way to go, but they’re taking steps forward. In year one without the former face of the franchise, that’s about all they can ask for.

Spencer Davies



Next up on Basketball Insiders’ “fixing” series is a stop in the Windy City.

In spite of the criticisms over last summer’s Jimmy Butler trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves, it feels like the Chicago Bulls at least have a sense of direction. Many members of the media—including this one—expected them to finish dead last in the NBA, yet they have 23 wins, with seven other teams worse off.

Obviously, the goal for the organization this season was to establish an identity and see what they had with their new cornerstone pieces. To a good extent, there’s optimism regarding those players because of the potential they’ve shown.

There’s still a good chunk of the year left, but the Bulls are 12th in the Eastern Conference standings with 15 games to go.

What Is Working

If it weren’t for the spectacular seasons by Donovan Mitchell and Ben Simmons, Chicago stretch big man Lauri Markkanen might be the Rookie of the Year. Even with some second-half struggles, the entire body of work is impressive.

The 7-foot Finnish forward continues to stay aggressive with a high usage and great mentality in snatching up those boards. It’s normal for a first-year player to go through those ups and downs. Add in a back injury that’s been bothering him as of late and the slump make a little more sense. Markkanen has shown the skill and consistent effort that it takes to be a mainstay in this league.

Bobby Portis is another member of the frontcourt who’s made a noticeable impact off the Bulls’ bench. In his third year, you can see the confidence continue to grow as a versatile offensive threat with a ton of touches. He’s taken a responsibility upon himself to lead the second unit and the proof is in the pudding. According to Cleaning The Glass, the team is a net plus-11.5 per 100 possessions with him on the court.

Second-year swingman Denzel Valentine has filled the stat sheet in multiple games as one of the most unselfish players on the roster. David Nwaba’s role from the beginning was to be a defensive menace and he’s come through for the majority of the year. Even two-way contract rookie Antonio Blakeney has shown flashes as a volume scorer in stretches.

Recently, Chicago has given a couple of cast-offs opportunities to display their skills. In 10 games, Cameron Payne looks as comfortable as he has in quite some time coming off a major foot injury. Noah Vonleh has been an effective late addition playing next to Portis and filling in for Markkanen. Let’s not forget that these two were lottery picks and are still in their early 20s.

What Needs To Change

Looking at what Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine have done, it’s been a mixed bag. With that being said, there’s clearly untapped potential between the both of them.

Dunn proved in very little time that the narrative of him being a lost cause was far from the truth. Hoiberg’s trust in him to be Chicago’s floor general has gone a long way. He’s been in attack mode with the ball in his hands, has seen his outside game get better and has been bothersome with his length defensively. It hasn’t resulted in wins, but remember—it’s this group’s first season together.

As for LaVine, it’s difficult to judge where a player is using a 23-game sample size. Yes, it’s a good amount of playing time, but let’s not forget he’s coming off a devastating left ACL tear. His defense has been subpar, but the bounce seems to still be there. The jumper is on and off, but he hasn’t been bashful at all. Starting the year off fresh in 2018-19 will benefit him.

Speaking of next season, the goal for the front office of Gar Forman and John Paxson should be simple—get younger. Currently, Robin Lopez is the highest paid player on the Bulls and he’ll have one year left on his deal going into the summer. The same applies to Justin Holiday. These are two veterans who could contribute on teams ready to win now, and it would be logical to part ways considering the direction the franchise is going.

Focus Area: The Draft

Due to the Nikola Mirotic trade on February 1st, Chicago acquired a first-round draft pick from the New Orleans Pelicans. That gives them two chances to add to their young talent pool in the upcoming 2018 NBA Draft.

Typically you’d go with the best player available when you’re slotted in the top ten, but the Bulls should feel good about their backcourt and the power forward position. What they really are lacking are reliable shooters and perimeter defenders, as well as a player with a bulldog mentality.

Chicago doesn’t get to the free throw nearly enough and they don’t convert looks that they should. Considering a true wing is amiss, it’d be the ideal scenario for Michael Porter Jr. to fall right into their lap. The Missouri freshman just returned after missing basically the entire season with a back injury. He was a top name coming into the class because of his size and could be a steal with the eighth selection.

If Porter Jr. doesn’t make it to them, Miles Bridges would make for a heck of a consolation prize. Unlike Porter, he has a more muscular frame at 6-foot-7, 230 pounds that allows him to bully the opposition. There’s a relentless nature and fearlessness about him that will translate to the next level.

Using that Pelicans pick, the Bulls would be happy to see Duke sharpshooter Gary Trent Jr. fall to them in the early-to-mid 20s, but that seems more unlikely with Anthony Davis continuing to carry New Orleans to new heights. If they end up selecting towards to the back end of the first round, Arizona junior guard Allonzo Trier could end up being a good fit as well.

Focus Area: Free Agency

Entering the summer, Chicago doesn’t have too many decisions to make on the contract front.

The trade exception from the Butler deal expires on June 22nd. If it’s not used by then, the amount will be renounced if the team goes under the salary cap. The deadline to present Noah Vonleh and David Nwaba a qualifying offer is June 29th.

Everybody’s going to keep an eye on LaVine because of restricted free agency, but the Bulls have indicated they prefer him to be a part of their core. They’ll in all likelihood look to bring him back on a long-term contract. If he doesn’t approve of the terms, he can always choose to play on his qualifying offer and bet on himself.

Chicago has to decide whether or not to guarantee Paul Zipser’s $1.5 million salary for next season by July 18th. The extension deadline for Payne, Portis, and Grant is the day before the first day of the 2018 campaign and team option deadlines for Dunn and Markannen come on Halloween.

There probably won’t be too much activity on the Bulls’ part regarding free agency. The focus will lay on improving their young core and getting guys who are just getting on the upswing in the pros. There are talents out there who fit the bill. It just all depends on what comes from the draft.

All in all, Chicago has a long way to go to get back into the postseason conversation, but they’re taking steps forward. In year one without the former face of the franchise, that’s about all you can ask for.

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