The lottery reform voted in by the NBA’s Board of Governors last week won’t end tanking and could dramatically increase it. The reform targeted one specific form of tanking — the “race to the bottom,” where teams such as the Philadelphia 76ers positioned themselves to lose as many games as possible to maximize draft assets. The league reportedly characterized this round of changes as an “incremental” step in lottery reform. So what’s next? What further changes could or should be contemplated?
To answer this question, it should be noted that Basketball Insiders has previously dissected the motivations behind lottery reform. While the quest to end tanking gets all the headlines, the vastly more important — yet under-reported — issue is which teams have a chance to draft a generational talent capable of winning multiple championships. Since 1980, about 90 percent of NBA champions have had one of 11 superstars that were central contributors on multiple championship teams. Thus, to have a serious chance at contention, a team needs to acquire one of these generational talents that only come around about three times per decade. It’s through this prism of access to talent that we’ll examine other potential steps.
By looking at a comparison of the new lottery odds, which will take effect in the 2019 NBA Draft, it’s easy to understand why many are arguing that the latest lottery reform could increase tanking rather than decrease it.
Here is an ESPN graphic on how NBA Draft lottery odds change in 2019 pic.twitter.com/Jk8X7q0J3Z
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) September 28, 2017
Looking at the odds for a team to move into the top three in the draft, notice that the previous odds in parenthesis scaled dramatically upward the more a team lost. This created the “race to the bottom” incentive since losses could lead to increased odds of landing a franchise-altering player. The new odds are “flattened,” meaning the four worst teams have nearly identical odds while odds for teams in the middle of the lottery have dramatically increased. Teams eight through 11 had their odds of moving into the top three roughly doubled.
As a consequence, teams no longer need to plan their way into one of the league’s worst records to optimize lottery odds. Previously, the team with the fifth-worst record had less than half the chance of landing a top-three pick compared to the team with the worst record. Under the new system, the teams with the fifth- and sixth-worst records have odds that are about 75 percent as good as the worst team. If you’re the team with the 11th-worst record at the trade deadline, are you a buyer hoping to move up a few places and make the playoffs? Or do you trade away assets and possibly waive valuable players that are not in your team’s long-term plans to chase lottery odds that are more evenly distributed starting in 2019?
By flattening the odds, the NBA has distributed the chances for a team to luck into a top-three pick — and potentially a generational star — to be more favorable for a larger number of teams. And that’s why further steps at lottery reform will be extremely difficult to pass. As we take a look below at potential additional steps, a common theme will emerge. These steps could further dis-incentivize losing, but they’re all unlikely to pass because they would restrict access to high picks that could potentially land a superstar.
The “no repeater” rule
ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported after the league’s previous lottery reform proposal was voted down that many teams didn’t like it when the Cavaliers won the top overall pick in three out of four drafts. To avoid a repeat of the “insta-rebuild” the Cavaliers were able to execute, one change contemplated for the latest round of reform — but which did not make it into the proposal that was recently voted on and adopted — was a rule restricting teams from moving up in the draft in consecutive seasons. Such a rule would have prevented the Cavaliers from picking first in the draft more frequently than every other season.
While this rule would further discourage teams from bottoming out — since remaining bad for multiple years wouldn’t be rewarded with consecutive chances at the top pick in the draft — the reason the rule didn’t make it to a vote should be fairly obvious. NBA teams would love to restrict other teams from access to superstars, but they don’t want that access restricted for themselves if misfortune dooms them to multiple trips to the lottery. This could be why the Oklahoma City Thunder were the only organization to vote against the latest reform proposal. Thunder GM Sam Presti had so much success drafting high in the lottery — selecting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden in successive years — that the Thunder may have wished to avoid any restrictions on Presti repeating that success the next time it needs to rebuild.
The postseason consolation tournament
The surest way to ensure that draft position is not based solely on losing would be a postseason tournament for teams that miss the playoffs that provides an opportunity to move up by advancing. Basketball Insiders previously proposed a tournament involving a home-and-home series for each round with the winner advancing based on aggregate points. For each round a team won, it would move up one position in the draft. Thus, if a team was in position to select first prior to the tournament, it would have to win at least one round to ensure that another team didn’t move ahead of it.
This idea would drive massive interest and generate massive revenue for the NBA, two factors that would normally spur a profit-driven league to take notice. But a consolation tournament in any form is unlikely for the same reason as the “no repeater” rule. Teams can talk until they’re blue in the face about taking away the incentive to tank, but the moment you propose a rule that would take away some of the control teams have over their own draft position, the interest will wane.
Since the incentive to obtain superstar players is much greater than the incentive to prevent other teams from tanking, teams are likely to remain much more interested in improving their own odds than in making the system “fair.” A consolation tournament would drive new behaviors aimed at improving a team’s competitiveness at the end of the season. Players that are waived or bought out at the trade deadline would suddenly be in line for a financial windfall since teams would be motivated to lose for most of the season but become more competitive right at the end. That could create just as much of a PR nightmare for the league as tanking does currently.
A three-tiered lottery system
The only system that has been proposed that would eliminate any incentive to tank out of a low playoff seed is a three-tiered lottery system. Under this proposal, there would be a lottery tier composed of teams that have a chance to move up in the draft, a playoff tier composed of teams that are excluded from the lottery, and a randomly-sized middle tier that is also excluded. By randomizing the number of teams that are allowed to take part in the lottery, it would make it impossible for teams to plan their way into the lottery. If a team doesn’t know how far it has to drop in the standings to get into the lottery, it would be much less likely to tank out of a low playoff seed.
The flaw with this proposal is the same as the others. To implement a three-tiered system, teams would have to vote in favor of reducing the number of teams that get to participate in the lottery. This rule is the ultimate answer to tanking, but a team is unlikely to vote for any proposal that could hurt its own chances.
The NBA has said that the latest round of reforms is only an incremental step, but it’s hard to imagine further steps that would be attractive enough to lead to implementation. What’s far more likely is that the latest reform is how the lottery system will remain for years to come as teams assess its impact. The impetus for future change will likely result from unintended consequences of the latest lottery reform, which won’t be understood for years. While we wait for that understanding to develop, don’t expect much in the way of additional lottery reform.
High-Performance Mindfulness: The Missing Link To DeMarcus Cousins’ Recovery
Jake Rauchbach discusses DeMarcus Cousins and one of the under-explored, but more critical aspects of the injury recovery process.
Last week, DeMarcus Cousins sustained another career-threatening injury, tearing his ACL during a pickup game in Las Vegas.
Cousins, who battled back from a ruptured Achilles this past season, is now in jeopardy of missing a big chunk of the upcoming season for his third time in as many years.
He is expected to miss major time for a third straight season due to a lower leg injury. Before tearing his left Achilles on Jan. 26 2018, Cousins’ durability was never really in question. Before the initial injury, the big-man missed over 20 games just once in a season.
Virtually every year, we see stories similar to Cousins. A player who, at one time in his career had little to no history of injury, gradually becomes engulfed in a seemingly chronic and potentially career-ending pattern for injury – Derrick Rose being a prime example of this.
Common thought for chronic injury issues points back to the physical or structural aspect. Some of the most common theories as to why players experience these setbacks are generally due to pre-disposition, overcompensation and an over-ambitious goal for recovery.
With any injury type, there are obvious physical factors at play. However, a vital and under-explored aspect of the recovery process could be blocking these players’ recovery process.
The Mind-Body Factor
The mind and body are inextricably linked. A person cannot entertain a thought or emotion and, without effect, a chain-reaction in the body occurring. The same can be said for athletes that re-experience past traumatic injury by way of memory.
As humans, we tend to push overwhelming memories, such as traumatic injury, to the far reaches of our subconscious mind. This can be a problem, as these unresolved thoughts, emotions, feelings and psycho-somatic pain can get lodged within a player’s muscle memory.
When this happens, severe compensation, fear of injury and guarding patterns can arise in the body, which can have the effect of weakening the point of injury. This consequently causes structural weakness in other parts of the body. Rose and Cousins could be prime examples of this.
Subconscious mental and emotional blocks such as these, if left unaddressed, can create a nasty psycho-somatic injury loop, consequentially making players susceptible to further injury. Leaving imbalances unresolved at the unconscious level can jeopardize the physical health and well-being of an athlete. Finding a way to break this loop is paramount.
Mental And Emotional Blocks
The psycho-somatic memory of rupturing an Achilles or tearing an ACL can easily stay locked up within the deep mind or muscle memory of a player for years until fully processed.
In Rose’s case, his first major injury and psycho-somatic impediment may have occurred when he tore his ACL during the 2012-2013 season. Dr. Michael Casale, speaking about Rose, said:
“His injury must have caused so much mental trauma. The neuroscience part of me comes out and starts to think about, as far as the brain rewiring, it must be so unbelievably impactful to have that one moment change the way you think about yourself and your environment.”
Considering his past injury history – and the fact that some like Dr. Casale within the medical community believe that Rose’s injury may have caused psychological damage – it is not a stretch to think there has been a very real psycho-somatic element at play.
In Cousins’ case, he has sustained two major leg injuries in a relatively short period. It is generally challenging for big men with severe lower leg injuries to return to the court better than when they left it. Cousins could have his work cut out for him.
If Cousins or Rose are still carrying the deep mental and emotional discord from their past injuries, the chronic injury patterns that they have already experienced could likely persist.
Directly addressing unresolved psycho-somatic barriers with leading-edge High-Performance Mindfulness systems could help players like Rose and Cousins break the habitual injury loop that they have experienced.
The Missing Link – Streamlining The Injury Recovery Process
So what might be the next correct step in streamlining recovery?
High-Performance Mindfulness – Energy Psychology Programs that zero in on removing the mental and emotional baggage from past injuries, exactly what Cousins and Rose could require.
High-Performance Mindfulness can now identify which unconscious mental blocks are holding a player back wherein the subconscious mind-body they are being held. Through a systematic approach for removing and neutralize these impediments, players have been shown to physically improve once the emotional discord of the past experiences has been neutralized.
Frequently, the option of last resort, techniques such as these often have the effect of improving range of motion, eliminating fears of re-injury and eliminating those nasty guarding patterns.
Moreover, employing tools that interface directly with the subconscious mind have been shown to restore confidence, trust and rhythm for a player in regards to his or her own body.
For players like Cousins and Rose, there may be nothing more vital at this stage in their careers.
Getting to the root of these chronic injury patterns may be the key for Cousins, Rose and players like them challenged with similar injury patterns for unlocking, healing and preventing future injury.
Addressing the deeply held negatively charged thoughts, images, emotions and somatic feelings could be the way for doing so – and could be a game-changer for players coming back from injury.
Could Team USA’s Success Create More Future NBA Partnerships?
Past U.S. National Teams have foreshadowed future player movement. What possibilities could come from the 2019 FIBA World Cup roster? Douglas Farmer writes.
Since 2008’s “Redeem Team,” two themes have applied to every iteration of the U.S. Men’s National Basketball Team.
They are stocked with the current cream of the crop, and they lay a groundwork for future partnerships or rumored partnerships.
Injuries, workload management and personal decisions have invalidated the first of those themes as the U.S. prepares for the FIBA World Cup in two weeks, but the bonds made in China could still influence the NBA in years to come, just as such friendships led to the 2010-14 Miami Heat, the 2016-19 Kevin Durant-included Golden State Warriors and the brand new Brooklyn Nets.
LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh were all a part of that 2008 Gold Medal team. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson first got to know Durant up close and personal while winning gold in Brazil. Kyrie Irving and Durant played together then as well, and that goes without mentioning DeAndre Jordan. Let’s not forget that Irving also played with Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis in 2016, two others he has been linked with the last few seasons.
So what partnerships could come from the current team? Three possibilities stick out.
The 2022 Restricted Free Agents
Four members of Gregg Popovich’s U.S. roster will reach restricted free agency after the 2022 season. For Los Angeles Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma and San Antonio Spurs guard Derrick White, they may have the option to survey their options and force their current organizations’ respective hands, but Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell will almost assuredly sign five-year deals where they are now.
That will set up Tatum and Mitchell – and perhaps Kuzma and/or White – to reach unrestricted free agency simultaneously in 2027. Is it absurd to look eight years ahead? Perhaps, but in the current climate of player empowerment, those timelines can become truncated in unexpected ways. For now, using the 2027 offseason simply creates a predictable point of reference.
Tatum will be entering his age-29 season and Mitchell his age-31 season. If either or both has not yet won a title — by 2027 or, as alluded to, when forcing a franchise’s decisions even earlier — the competitive clock will be ticking at a rapid pace.
To put it bluntly, the Tatum-Mitchell duo could fit very well. For that matter, there is no genuine overlap even when considering Kuzma and White.
Though his 2018-19 was a slight step backward in many respects, Tatum remains a solid shooter and one that should only improve. Perhaps he is not quite the 43.4 percent three-point shooter that he was as a rookie, but he is also better than last season’s 37.3 percent. As his body continues to mature, his rebounding rate should continue to rise, already up to 6.0 from 5.0 in just two years.
Mitchell, meanwhile, improved his shooting from deep to 36.2 percent from 34 percent in his first two seasons and raised his assist-to-turnover rate to 1.48 from 1.35. On the surface, those may seem like incremental betterings, but considering Mitchell’s usage rate also jumped to 31.7 from 29.2, their impacts were crucial pieces of Utah finishing fifth in the West.
A pick-and-roll between the two of them would put any defense in a compromising position. Either could drive to the rim, either could crash for a lob, either could pop out for a three. Neither lags off the dribble or in a catch-and-shoot situation. And each comports himself well defensively, a trait that will presumably only strengthen with age.
Tatum and Mitchell would make for a solid combination, a rapport to be looked for when the U.S. faces the Czech Republic on Sept. 1.
Of course, if either appears to be fitting with Kuzma or White better than expected, one or the other could eventually lean on his current franchise to tender a better offer than the Lakers or Spurs are likely to match.
2020 Role Players on the Market
On this U.S. roster, only Nuggets forward Mason Plumlee and Nets guard Joe Harris will be free agents next summer. Neither will command massive contracts, though both would be leaving teams with distinct championship aspirations if they shopped around. There are, however, two contingents of players headed to China with equal title hopes who could begin sales pitches.
Tatum is just one of four Celtics on the roster, making them the loudest group. They could see Plumlee and recognize size not much abundant on their team in Boston. With Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward and Tatum, they have reasonable shooting, but finding a way to bang with the lengthy 76ers will undoubtedly be on Celtics president Danny Ainge’s to-do list.
Bucks guard Khris Middleton and big man Brook Lopez are the only other pair of NBA teammates representing the U.S., and in Harris they should see the ideal sharpshooter to stash around Giannis Antetokounmpo.
That version of player recruitment may not have the same headline value as the Gold Medal-winning efforts of the last decade, but that is appropriate for a roster devoid of MVP candidates. It could be the key to a title all the same.
Be it Harris to the Bucks, Plumlee to the Celtics or a Tatum-Mitchell partnership years from becoming a reality, such team-building could shape a postseason just as James-Wade-Bosh and Durant to the Warriors did, all spurred by time on a national team roster.
NBA Daily: Grading The Offseason – Toronto Raptors
Shane Rhodes examines the double-edged sword of the Toronto Raptors’ championship season and the loss of a franchise superstar.
The NBA is a fickle beast, success a fleeting one.
And, right now, no one may know that better than the Toronto Raptors.
After the first title in their team’s history, the Raptors are left without Kawhi Leonard, the former Spur, Raptor and now Clipper that carried the franchise to its greatest heights. Toronto and Masai Ujiri’s gamble from a year ago was worth it – with Leonard in place of DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors reached the pinnacle of the basketball world – but it has left the franchise ill-equipped to retain their heightened status.
Of course, and although he was a significant part of it, there was more to their team than Leonard. That being said, success could stay in the cards for the Raptors, if not to a lesser extent, next season.
But the shoes Leonard vacated were quite large. Ujiri and Co. did what they could to fill them, but it can be hard, nigh impossible, to replace a superstar. Did they do enough to keep the team at the top of the Eastern Conference or, at the very least, earn a passing grade?
The Raptors season was an interesting one.
After the DeRozan-Leonard blockbuster rocked the whole of the NBA, Toronto was projected to be one of the best in the Association. It didn’t quite go as planned, but the Raptors indeed found themselves near the top of the NBA ladder, second only to the Milwaukee Bucks (60-22) in terms of their record (58-24).
Toronto was mocked early on for their “load management” approach, but it’s hard to argue with the results: Leonard looked like himself rather than the hobbled doppelganger we saw in his last season with San Antonio.
Once again at the peak of his powers, Leonard elevated the play of everyone around him and made the Raptors true title contenders. When the postseason came around, Toronto – after a brief slip against the Orlando Magic – rolled through the first round.
In the second, they clashed in a back-and-forth seven-game series with the Philadelphia 76ers, which ended with a signature moment from Leonard.
From there, they went toe-to-toe with eventual Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Raptors didn’t flinch.
And, finally, they were face to face with the beast that has stalked the collective nightmares of the NBA over the last five seasons: the Golden State Warriors.
The Raptors were built for this moment: to take on (and topple) a giant. In trading DeRozan, the team had stripped themselves of what their franchise was – its former face. It was cold, but it was also calculated and methodical. Everything had led up to this moment for Toronto, and there was nothing that they were going to let stop them.
And nothing did.
Toronto was a team of destiny. There was an air about them, a sense of magic and an essence that can’t be coached from the whiteboard or broken down in the film room. They took the Warriors to their limit and beat them. And, injuries aside, nothing can take that away from the Raptors franchise, their fans and the city of Toronto.
Unfortunately, this is Basketball Insiders’ “Grading the Offseason” series and, while what the Raptors achieved during the regular and postseason is great, it doesn’t factor into what they have done since they brought the Larry O’Brien trophy to Toronto.
The Raptors had hoped a title could lure Leonard back to the frozen North. In the end, not even that was enough to keep Leonard from Los Angeles but, if given the choice, Toronto would almost certainly trade for him again – the proverbial “window” can close so quickly and the team had to seize their opportunity while there still was one.
6-foot-7 superstar forwards don’t grow on trees, however. Leonard’s departure left a superstar-sized hole on the roster and he wouldn’t be easily replaced.
Toronto went into the 2019 NBA Draft with just a second-round pick, its first owed to San Antonio as part of the deal for Leonard. With that, the team took Dewan Hernandez, a forward out of the University of Miami.
They retained Patrick McCaw, a wing, signed Terence Davis, Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Devin Robinson, all forwards.
Sensing a theme?
The Raptors, rather than trying to find one player, opted to replace Leonard with a committee. None of those players inspire much confidence, but bringing in a versatile group like that is at least a start.
From there, Toronto filled out the rest of the roster: with Danny Green, another integral piece, gone to the Los Angeles Lakers, the Raptors added Cameron Payne and Matt Thomas to serve as depth behind Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Norman Powell.
Short of something completely out-of-the-blue, ala the Leonard-DeRozan swap this time last year, there is little else the Raptors could do to improve their next-season outlook. After the flurry that was the start of free agency, there just isn’t much impact talent left out there.
On a lighter note, the Raptors didn’t lose much of anything outside of Leonard and Green that wasn’t addressed in those signings. Jeremy Lin, Jordan Loyd, Jodie Meeks and Eric Moreland were the other Raptors that walked into free agency.
Those players haven’t exactly knocked down the doors anywhere else. The Raptors, at the very least, should get similar production from their new guys.
PLAYERS IN: Terence Davis, Dewan Hernandez, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Stanley Johnson, Cameron Payne, Matt Thomas, Devin Robinson (Exhibit 10), Sagaba Konate (Exhibit 10), Oshae Brissett (Exhibit 10)
PLAYERS OUT: Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Jeremy Lin, Jordan Loyd, Jodie Meeks, Eric Moreland
Short of retaining Leonard, it was almost guaranteed to be a “bad” offseason for the Raptors, and their grade has reflected that.
Their roster is talented, but Toronto is built to house a superstar, not compete without one. Hollis-Jefferson, Johnson, Payne and the others could have proven perfect additions to a title contender but, to the Raptors, they serve as no more than mediocre depth, either journeymen or hopeful reclamation projects.
In an extremely top-heavy East, Toronto should have no problem floating somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack (if not near the top of the conference). But that “good-not-great” gray-area isn’t the goal for any squad, certainly not the defending champions.
Now, it is the NBA, and anything can happen in this league. Should another disgruntled opportunity ala Leonard present itself, and should the Raptors jump on it, that could all change.
But right now, the odds of that happening seem slim.
In Leonard’s departure, Toronto was dealt an unwinnable hand. Unfortunately, there is no sympathy in grading.
OFFSEASON GRADE: D