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NBA PM: The Next Steps For Lottery Reform

Buddy Grizzard analyzes the NBA’s recent lottery reform and potential ideas to improve on it.

Buddy Grizzard



The lottery reform voted in by the NBA’s Board of Governors last week won’t end tanking and could dramatically increase it. The reform targeted one specific form of tanking — the “race to the bottom,” where teams such as the Philadelphia 76ers positioned themselves to lose as many games as possible to maximize draft assets. The league reportedly characterized this round of changes as an “incremental” step in lottery reform. So what’s next? What further changes could or should be contemplated?

To answer this question, it should be noted that Basketball Insiders has previously dissected the motivations behind lottery reform. While the quest to end tanking gets all the headlines, the vastly more important — yet under-reported — issue is which teams have a chance to draft a generational talent capable of winning multiple championships. Since 1980, about 90 percent of NBA champions have had one of 11 superstars that were central contributors on multiple championship teams. Thus, to have a serious chance at contention, a team needs to acquire one of these generational talents that only come around about three times per decade. It’s through this prism of access to talent that we’ll examine other potential steps.

By looking at a comparison of the new lottery odds, which will take effect in the 2019 NBA Draft, it’s easy to understand why many are arguing that the latest lottery reform could increase tanking rather than decrease it.

Looking at the odds for a team to move into the top three in the draft, notice that the previous odds in parenthesis scaled dramatically upward the more a team lost. This created the “race to the bottom” incentive since losses could lead to increased odds of landing a franchise-altering player. The new odds are “flattened,” meaning the four worst teams have nearly identical odds while odds for teams in the middle of the lottery have dramatically increased. Teams eight through 11 had their odds of moving into the top three roughly doubled.

As a consequence, teams no longer need to plan their way into one of the league’s worst records to optimize lottery odds. Previously, the team with the fifth-worst record had less than half the chance of landing a top-three pick compared to the team with the worst record. Under the new system, the teams with the fifth- and sixth-worst records have odds that are about 75 percent as good as the worst team. If you’re the team with the 11th-worst record at the trade deadline, are you a buyer hoping to move up a few places and make the playoffs? Or do you trade away assets and possibly waive valuable players that are not in your team’s long-term plans to chase lottery odds that are more evenly distributed starting in 2019?

By flattening the odds, the NBA has distributed the chances for a team to luck into a top-three pick — and potentially a generational star — to be more favorable for a larger number of teams. And that’s why further steps at lottery reform will be extremely difficult to pass. As we take a look below at potential additional steps, a common theme will emerge. These steps could further dis-incentivize losing, but they’re all unlikely to pass because they would restrict access to high picks that could potentially land a superstar.

The “no repeater” rule

ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported after the league’s previous lottery reform proposal was voted down that many teams didn’t like it when the Cavaliers won the top overall pick in three out of four drafts. To avoid a repeat of the “insta-rebuild” the Cavaliers were able to execute, one change contemplated for the latest round of reform — but which did not make it into the proposal that was recently voted on and adopted — was a rule restricting teams from moving up in the draft in consecutive seasons. Such a rule would have prevented the Cavaliers from picking first in the draft more frequently than every other season.

While this rule would further discourage teams from bottoming out — since remaining bad for multiple years wouldn’t be rewarded with consecutive chances at the top pick in the draft — the reason the rule didn’t make it to a vote should be fairly obvious. NBA teams would love to restrict other teams from access to superstars, but they don’t want that access restricted for themselves if misfortune dooms them to multiple trips to the lottery. This could be why the Oklahoma City Thunder were the only organization to vote against the latest reform proposal. Thunder GM Sam Presti had so much success drafting high in the lottery — selecting Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden in successive years — that the Thunder may have wished to avoid any restrictions on Presti repeating that success the next time it needs to rebuild.

The postseason consolation tournament

The surest way to ensure that draft position is not based solely on losing would be a postseason tournament for teams that miss the playoffs that provides an opportunity to move up by advancing. Basketball Insiders previously proposed a tournament involving a home-and-home series for each round with the winner advancing based on aggregate points. For each round a team won, it would move up one position in the draft. Thus, if a team was in position to select first prior to the tournament, it would have to win at least one round to ensure that another team didn’t move ahead of it.

This idea would drive massive interest and generate massive revenue for the NBA, two factors that would normally spur a profit-driven league to take notice. But a consolation tournament in any form is unlikely for the same reason as the “no repeater” rule. Teams can talk until they’re blue in the face about taking away the incentive to tank, but the moment you propose a rule that would take away some of the control teams have over their own draft position, the interest will wane.

Since the incentive to obtain superstar players is much greater than the incentive to prevent other teams from tanking, teams are likely to remain much more interested in improving their own odds than in making the system “fair.” A consolation tournament would drive new behaviors aimed at improving a team’s competitiveness at the end of the season. Players that are waived or bought out at the trade deadline would suddenly be in line for a financial windfall since teams would be motivated to lose for most of the season but become more competitive right at the end. That could create just as much of a PR nightmare for the league as tanking does currently.

A three-tiered lottery system

The only system that has been proposed that would eliminate any incentive to tank out of a low playoff seed is a three-tiered lottery system. Under this proposal, there would be a lottery tier composed of teams that have a chance to move up in the draft, a playoff tier composed of teams that are excluded from the lottery, and a randomly-sized middle tier that is also excluded. By randomizing the number of teams that are allowed to take part in the lottery, it would make it impossible for teams to plan their way into the lottery. If a team doesn’t know how far it has to drop in the standings to get into the lottery, it would be much less likely to tank out of a low playoff seed.

The flaw with this proposal is the same as the others. To implement a three-tiered system, teams would have to vote in favor of reducing the number of teams that get to participate in the lottery. This rule is the ultimate answer to tanking, but a team is unlikely to vote for any proposal that could hurt its own chances.

The NBA has said that the latest round of reforms is only an incremental step, but it’s hard to imagine further steps that would be attractive enough to lead to implementation. What’s far more likely is that the latest reform is how the lottery system will remain for years to come as teams assess its impact. The impetus for future change will likely result from unintended consequences of the latest lottery reform, which won’t be understood for years. While we wait for that understanding to develop, don’t expect much in the way of additional lottery reform.

Buddy Grizzard has written for and BBallBreakdown and served as an editor for ESPN TrueHoop Network.


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Middleton, Bucks Aiming To ‘Lock In’ As Season Comes To Close

Spencer Davies catches up with Milwaukee Bucks swingman Khris Middleton in a Basketball Insiders exclusive.

Spencer Davies



Basketball Insiders had the chance to chat with Khris Middleton about the direction of the Milwaukee Bucks as the season comes to a close.

You guys won three out of four before you came into Cleveland. What was working during that stretch?

Just being us. Doing it with our defense, playing fast-paced offense. Just trying to keep teams off the three-point line. We haven’t done that. We didn’t do that [Monday] or two games ago, but it’s something we’ve just gotta get back to.

With the offense—it seems like it’s inconsistent. What do you think that’s got to do with mostly?

Just trying to do it by ourselves sometimes. Standing, keeping the ball on one side of the floor. We’re a better team when we play in a fast pace. And then also in the half court, when we move the ball from side-to-side it just opens the paint for everybody and there’s a lot more space.

For you, on both ends you’ve been ultra-aggressive here in the last couple weeks or so, does that have to do with you feeling better or is it just a mindset?

I’ve been healthy all year. Right now, it’s the end of the season. Gotta make a push. Everybody’s gotta lock in. Have to be confident, have to be aggressive. Have to do my job and that’s to shoot the ball well and to defend.

Have you changed anything with your jumper? Looking at the past couple months back-to-back, your perimeter shooting was below 32 percent. In March it’s above 45 percent.

I feel like I got a lot of great looks earlier this year. They just weren’t falling. Right now, they’re falling for me, so I have the same mindset that I had when I was missing and that’s to keep on shooting. At some point, they’re gonna go down for me.

Is knowing that every game at this point means more an extra motivator for you guys?

Definitely. We’re basically in the playoffs right now. We’re in a playoff series right now where we have to win games, we have to close out games, in order to get the seeding and to stay in the playoffs. Each game and each possession means something to us right now.

Is it disappointing to be in the position the team is in right now, or are you looking at it as, ‘If we get there, we’re going to be alright’?

I mean, we wish we were in a better position. But where we’re at right now, we’re fine with it. We want to make that last push to get higher in the seeding.

Lots of changes have gone on here. Eric Bledsoe came in two weeks into the season. You had the coaching change and lineup changes. Jabari Parker’s been getting situated before the postseason. How difficult does that make it for you guys to build consistency?

Yeah, it was tough at first. But I think early on we had to adjust on the fly. We didn’t have too many practices. There was a stretch where we were able to get in the film room, get on the court, and practice with each other more.

Now it’s just at a point where we’re adding a lot of new guys off the bench where we have to do the same things—learn on the fly, watch film. We’re not on the court as much now, but we just have to do a great job of buying in to our system, try to get to know each other.

Does this team feel like it has unfinished business based on what happened last year?

Definitely. Last year, we felt like we let one go. Toronto’s a great team. They’re having a hell of a season this year, but I feel like we let one go. This year’s a new year—a little add of extra motivation. We’ve been in the playoff position before, so hopefully, we learn from it when we go into it this year.

Would you welcome that rematch?

I mean, we welcome anybody man. We showed that we compete with any team out here. We can’t worry about other teams as much. We just have to be focused on us.

What has to happen for you guys to achieve your full potential?

Lock in. Just play as hard as we can, play unselfish, and do our job out there night-in, night-out.

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NBA Daily: Raptors Look To Fine-Tune The Defense

The Toronto Raptors’ defense had a letdown against the Cavaliers, but has been outstanding overall.

Buddy Grizzard



The Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors engaged in an offensive shootout on Wednesday that could be a playoff preview. The Cavs protected home court with a single-possession, 132-129 victory. Afterward, the Raptors spoke about the types of defensive adjustments the team needs to make as the postseason rapidly approaches.

“That’s how a playoff game would be,” said DeMar DeRozan, who missed a three at the buzzer that could have forced overtime. “This is a team we’ve been playing against the last two years in the postseason. Understanding how we can tighten up things defensively, how to make things tougher for them [is key].

“[It’s] little small things that go a long way, and not just with them … with every team.”

Raptors coach Dwane Casey concurred with DeRozan that fine-tuning of the defense is needed. He also pointed out that, with young contributors such as center Jakob Poeltl and power forward Pascal Siakam on the roster, defensive experience against the league’s best player, LeBron James, is something they will have to gain on the fly.

“I don’t think Jakob Poeltl played against him that much, and Siakam,” said Casey. “This is their first time seeing it. I thought Jak and Pascal did an excellent job, but there are certain situations where they’ve got to read and understand what the other team is trying to do to them.”

Poeltl was outstanding, leading the bench with 17 points and tying for the team lead in rebounds with eight. Casey praised the diversity of his contributions.

“I thought he did an excellent job of rolling, finishing, finding people,” said Casey. “I thought defensively, he did a good job of protecting the paint, going vertical. So I liked what he was giving us, especially his defense against Kevin Love.”

Basketball Insiders previously noted how the Raptors have performed vastly better as a team this season when starting point guard Kyle Lowry is out of the game. Much of that is due to Fred VanVleet’s emergence as one of the NBA’s best reserve point guards. VanVleet scored 16 points with five assists and no turnovers against Cleveland. It’s also a reflection of how good Toronto’s perimeter defense has been up and down the roster.

According to ESPN’s defensive Real Plus-Minus statistic, three of the NBA’s top 15 defensive point guards play for the Raptors. VanVleet ranks seventh while Lowry is 12th and Delon Wright is 14th. Starting small forward OG Anunoby ranks 16th at his position.

The Raptors also rank in the top five in offensive efficiency (third) and defensive efficiency (fifth). Having established an identity as a defensive team, especially on the perimeter, it’s perhaps understandable that Lowry was the one player in the visiting locker room who took the sub-standard defensive showing personally.

“It was a disgraceful display of defense by us and we’ve got to be better than that,” said Lowry. “We’ve got to be more physical. They picked us apart and made a lot of threes. We’ve got to find a way to be a better defensive team.”

Lowry continued the theme of fine-tuning as the regular season winds down.

“I think we’ve just got to make adjustments on the fly as a team,” said Lowry. “We can score with the best of them, but they outscored us tonight. We got what we wanted offensively. We’re one of the top teams in scoring in the league, but we’re also a good defensive team.”

Lowry was clearly bothered by Toronto’s defensive showing, but Casey downplayed the importance of a single regular-season game.

“We’ve got to take these games and learn from them, and again learn from the situations where we have to be disciplined,” said Casey. “It’s not a huge thing. It’s situations where we are that we’ve got to learn from and be disciplined and not maybe take this step and over-help here. Because a team like that and a passer like James will make you pay.”

While the Raptors continue to gain experience and dial in the fine defensive details, Casey was insistent that his players should not hang their heads over falling short against Cleveland.

“Hopefully our guys understand that we’re right there,” said Casey.

The Raptors host the Brooklyn Nets tonight to open a three-game home stand that includes visits from the Clippers Sunday and the Nuggets Tuesday. After that, Toronto visits the Celtics March 31 followed by a return to Cleveland April 3 and a home game against Boston the next night. With three games in a row against the other two top-three teams in the East, the schedule presents plenty of opportunities for the Raptors to add defensive polish before the playoffs begin.

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NBA Daily: Jaylen Brown Set To Return For Celtics

The Celtics finally got some good news on Thursday. Jaylen Brown’s return is imminent.

Moke Hamilton



Finally, some good news for the Boston Celtics.

Jaylen Brown is set to return to action.

Brown has been M.I.A. since sustaining a concussion during the team’s 117-109 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves back on March 8, but has traveled with the team to Portland and is expecting to return to the lineup on Sunday when the Celtics do battle with the Sacramento Kings.

As the Celts gear up for a playoff run, which they hope will result in them ending LeBron James’ reign atop the Eastern Conference, they’ve picked the wrong time to run into injury issues. Along with Brown, both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart have each been conspicuous by their absences, and the team could certainly use all of their pieces as they attempt to enter the postseason on a high note.

Fortunately for Boston, with the Toronto Raptors leading them by 4.5 games in the standings and the Celts ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers by a comfortable six games, Brad Stevens’ team is enjoying the rare situation of having a playoff seed that appears to be somewhat locked in.

Still, with the team only able to go as far as its young rotation will carry it, Brown addressed the media on Thursday.

“I’m feeling a lot better. I’m just trying to hurry up and get back,” Brown said, as quoted by

“I’m tired of not playing.”

Stevens is probably tired of him not playing, too.

As we head into the month of April, playoff-bound teams and conference contenders begin to think about playing into June, while the cellar-dwellers and pretenders begin to look toward the draft lottery and free agency.

What’s funny is that in the midst of the Raptors and their rise out East, the Celtics and their dominance has become a bit of a forgotten storyline. When Gordon Hayward went down on opening night, the neophytes from the Northeast were thought to be a decent team in the making whose ceiling probably wasn’t anywhere near that of the Cavs, the Raptors and perhaps even the Washington Wizards.

Yet through it all, with the impressive growth of Jaylen Brown, impressive rookie Jayson Tatum and the rise of Irving as a franchise’s lynchpin, the Celtics stormed out the games to the tune of a a 17-3 record. What made the strong start even more impressive was the fact that the team won 16 straight games after beginning the season 0-2.

Although they weren’t able to keep up that pace, they began the month of February having gone 37-15 and turned a great many into believers. With their spry legs, team-first playing style and capable leader in Irving, the Celtics, it was thought, were a true contender in the Eastern Conference — if not the favorite.

Since then, and after experiencing injuries to some of its key cogs, the team has gone just 11-8.

In the interim, it seems that many have forgotten about the team that tantalized the Eastern Conference in the early goings of the season.

Brown’s return, in one important respect, will signify a return to Boston’s prior self.

With Marcus Smart having recently undergone surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right thumb, he is expected to be out another five weeks or so, meaning that he’ll likely miss the beginning of the postseason.

As for Irving, although reports say that his ailing knee has no structural damage, everything the Celtics hope to accomplish begins and ends with him. FOX Sports 1’s Chris Broussard believes that it’s no slam dunk that Irving returns to action this season, but he’s in the minority. This team has simply come too far to not give themselves every opportunity to compete at the highest level, so long as doing so doesn’t jeopardize the long term health of any of the franchise’s cornerstones.

Make no mistake about it, the Celtics are far from a finished product. With their nucleus intact and flexibility preserved, they will have another offseason with which to tinker with their rotation pieces and plug away at building a champion.

But here and now, with what they’ve got, the Celtics are much closer than any of us thought they would be at this point.

And on Sunday, when Jaylen Brown rejoins his team in the lineup, to the delight of the Boston faithful, the Celtics will be that much closer.

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