This week at Basketball Insiders, we’ve taken a trip back in time together. Since we haven’t seen any NBA action since mid-March, we’ve gone ahead to take a look at how drafts of the past have worked out.
The 2016 NBA Draft can be classified as “studs and duds,” with the duds almost outweighing the studs. It says something that its undrafted free agents — Fred VanVleet, Danuel House, Dorian Finney-Smith, Derrick Jones Jr. — have been more successful than most of the first-round crop. It’s also notable that some of these players have had success outside of the organization that originally drafted them. That’s why it’s hard to evaluate whether picks are good or bad. Is it due to the players themselves or the franchises who took them there? It’s a fine line to toe, so we’ve broken it down into four categories.
A. The Hits
B. The Misses
C. The Sleepers
D. Jury Is Out
So without further ado, a look at the class of 2016!
Ben Simmons, No. 1
Well, not exactly right away. Simmons, as per Philadelphia 76ers first-round pick luck, had to miss the entirety of the 2016-17 campaign with a foot injury. He returned with a vengeance in his “rookie” second season — take that up with Donovan Mitchell and Utah Jazz faithful — and made an enormous impact as the Sixers finally got to see what waiting “The Process” out could look like when their pieces were healthy. Nobody expected Simmons to be a shooter, but the expectations placed on the 6-foot-10 Aussie have been tough to meet.
Once marveled over by his innate vision, poise in transition and size as a ball-handler, Simmons is no longer treated like the All-Star he truly is. It’s just easier to make jokes about his lack of threes, apparently. The debate over whether he and Joel Embiid can take that next step as championship-caliber teammates, however, is a question we’d all like the answer to.
Brandon Ingram, No. 2
Ingram is a good case study for staying patient with young prospects. At 22 years old and in his fourth season, he was just selected to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career. Would you have believed that if you were provided his statistics as a rookie? They’re not exactly pretty, nor was the situation in Los Angeles. Structure and player development can have a symbiotic relationship. Clearly, the environment was not conducive to growth back then. That doesn’t mean Ingram was completely faultless, though, and the following seasons were a major bounceback in shaping who he became elsewhere.
His length is quite problematic on both ends. He’s been letting it fly from deep at a career rate and is converting 38 percent of those, forcing the opposition to close out. Now a primary option with the New Orleans Pelicans, we’ll find out what he and the other promising youngsters are made of as this franchise moves forward
Domantas Sabonis, No. 11
Little did the Oklahoma City Thunder know that they had a future double-double machine just camping out on the perimeter as a spot-up guy. That’s why the general public was up in arms when Sabonis and Victor Oladipo were the pieces going back to the Indiana Pacers for superstar Paul George. Funny how we grade that trade in the present day now, isn’t it? Nate McMillan has utilized Sabonis as an elite, physical screen-and-roller that can rebound the heck out of the ball. The son of Arvydas earned his first All-Star honors this season, too, so Domantas’ best is likely still ahead of him.
Jaylen Brown, No. 3
It’s not normal for a team that was in the playoffs to have the third overall pick, but the Boston Celtics had this luxury for two straight seasons thanks to the Brooklyn Nets. It allowed the C’s to establish their cornerstone pieces moving forward, starting with Brown and then with Jayson Tatum the following year. While Brown received playing time in his rookie season, the focus was on learning behind the team’s young mainstays. Despite a surge in his second season alongside a first-year Tatum, both players hit a bump in the road during 2018-19. Fortunately for Boston, this current version of Brown is exactly what they’ve envisioned — aggressive, unafraid and gritty. As Tatum’s star begins to shine, his partner shouldn’t be too far behind. Danny Ainge oughta send a thank you card to Billy King for Boston’s two franchise faces.
Buddy Hield, No. 6
Jamal Murray, No. 7
Both of these guards are hits in the sense of producing big numbers and taking their games to new heights with each season. They should be considered solid picks at these positions, albeit not home runs. Hield was traded in the middle of his rookie season to the Sacramento Kings, where he’s blossomed as a top-tier volume scorer just getting into his prime. Murray has hovered around the same level player as he’s been the last few years, forever waiting for fewer passive nights and more attack-heavy outings in which the Blue Arrow can shine.
Dragan Bender, No. 4
Often (incorrectly) compared to Kristaps Porzingis coming into the draft, Bender was ironically selected in the same slot as he was. The seven-foot Croatian big man was highly touted as the best prospect coming from overseas. In reality, he wasn’t even close to ready. He was too slow on his feet to keep up with faster wings and too small to guard players in the post. The shooting touch was supposed to be his most consistent quality, and even that portion of his game didn’t come through aside from a decent effort in year two. Sure, it didn’t help that the Phoenix Suns were a bottom-dweller – but that doesn’t mean Bender did himself any favors. He’s got one silver lining going for him — he’s 22 years old and there’s nowhere to go but up, as evidenced by a 23-point night for the Golden State Warriors before the league shut down.
Kris Dunn, No. 5
It’s really difficult to include Dunn on this list because he is a legitimate individual defender that can lock up a lot of talented guards and change momentum with just a few plays. In fact, he could be a real steal for a team looking for a specialist this offseason. His road is far from ending. That said, you can’t justify a top-five pick being a specialist — even if it was in a class scarce of upside.
Marquese Chriss, No. 8
The majority of what we’ve seen with Chriss is a well-below-average shooter that has a ton of athleticism… without the skills necessary to succeed consistently. However, an opportunity with the Warriors has given Chriss the stage to showcase what some hands-on learning and hard work can accomplish. We’ll see if his name gets removed off the “miss” list in the future. That’s a long way away though for the former eighth overall pick.
Thon Maker, No. 10
When the Milwaukee Bucks decided to select Maker with the 10th overall pick, most agreed that the South Sudanese center would be a raw prospect in need of major polishing. Those concerns were valid to this day, as he has yet to average 20 minutes per game. He just isn’t consistent enough to warrant valuable playing time. When you can’t stretch the floor and struggle with players that overpower you, it doesn’t help your case. Similar to Bender, he’s got age on his side. The Detroit Pistons have taken a less is more approach with Maker, leading to an uptick in efficiency as a decent backup big — not at all worthy of a top 10 selection.
Georgios Papagiannis, No. 13
Considering the slew of disappointments in this draft class, Papagiannis actually put up respectable production as a rookie with the Sacramento Kings… in 22 games… after the season was given up on. He played 16 more games with them afterward — never more than 16 minutes — before being waived at the 2018 trade deadline. Papagiannis would appear in exactly one NBA game for the Portland Trail Blazers following that. Currently, he is playing for Panathinaikos back home in Greece. So, in other words, thumbs *down* for a lottery pick.
Guerschon Yabusele, No. 16
Wade Baldwin, No. 17
Just because they were mid-round picks doesn’t exclude the Celtics and Grizzlies from their swings and misses on these two. Yabusele and Baldwin had made their fair share of noise in the G League, but that’s not enough. The former is in year four with no role and the clock ticking, while the latter is playing for Olympiacos in the Euroleague.
Malik Beasley, No. 19
DeAndre’ Bembry, No. 21
Furkan Korkmaz, No. 26
Ivica Zubac, No. 32
Patrick McCaw, No. 38
Jake Layman, No. 47
Georges Niang, No. 50
Pascal Siakam, No. 27
The year-to-year rise of Siakam has been astounding. It’s the beauty of what can happen with a little time and a plan. He waited his turn, observed the players ahead of him and starred in his role off the bench. Eventually, that turned into a promotion to starter and the man they call Spicy P just took off from there. His determination to expand his game manifested itself into becoming Kawhi Leonard’s right-hand man en route to a Toronto Raptors championship. Now, he’s an All-Star, one of the top point forwards in the Eastern Conference and very well could be its best player in the near future. Shame on me for thinking he’d struggle to handle alpha status.
Malcolm Brogdon, No. 36
It’s not often that the class Rookie of the Year is considered a sleeper. A second-rounder had never won the prestigious award until Brogdon came along. As he did so well under Tony Bennett at Virginia, the upperclassman point guard proved to be a true floor general with an advanced feel for the game right from the jump in Milwaukee. He alternated backcourt roles in his first three seasons with the Bucks, punishing the opposition from deep and on the defensive end. He’s fought some injury issues here and there as well. In his debut season with the Indiana Pacers, we’ve seen more pick-and-roll wizardry from the talented guard with Sabonis. And though his shooting numbers have dipped noticeably, that’s probably an outlier. Indiana’s got a solid future with Brogdon running the show alongside a pair of All-Stars.
Jury Is Still Out
Caris LeVert, No. 20
Injury issues plummeted LeVert down to No. 20. He’s been plagued by a few of them here and there in the NBA, but none have stopped him from putting on the show he’s capable of. He’s one of those players that when he sees one shot go in, there’s no telling how far his hot hand will go. All you have to do is go back to his 51-point outburst in a comeback win back in early March. LeVert’s 6-foot-6 frame with a wide wingspan is perfect for the modern NBA. If he puts on a little more weight, the Nets could see him taking a giant step forward with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant leading the charge.
DeJounte Murray, No. 29
The San Antonio Spurs know how to draft. Murray was the first of two 29th overall picks that they’ve seen promise from, the other being Derrick White. Murray’s a stat-sheet stuffing, athletic, long pest of a player on both ends. Defensively, he doesn’t give you an inch to get by, nor does he make it easy for a clean pass anywhere. His hands are among the quickest in the league. The offensive portion of his game is slowly but surely coming back to him after a devastating ACL injury last season caused him to miss all of 2018-19, but there’s been no sense of fear whatsoever. He’s driving and dishing and knocking down his triples. Let’s just hope those injuries are behind Murray for good and he can continue to ascend the way he has.
Jakob Poeltl, No. 9
You know the saying “the best ability is availability?” That’s been Poeltl’s MO since he entered the league. Unfortunately, there’s little a traditional big man can offer if he doesn’t excel in more than one area. The former Ute is adept at protecting the rim and snagging rebounds and… that’s pretty much it. Even so, his advanced statistics point to a big improvement since his move to the Spurs. Not enough to be declared a hit, but surely not enough to be called a miss either. He’s in the middle for now.
The 2016 class is, for lack of a better word, a weird one to look back at. There’s plenty of first-round names that have succeeded, while others have flamed out of the league. Even the second-round picks were slim pickings if you want to go that far. But still, there are stars in the room and those are the standouts we love to watch play the game — and we could see more pan out if we’re lucky.
The X-Factors: Portland
Spencer Davies continues Basketball Insiders’ “X-Factor” series by looking at potential game-changers for the Portland Trail Blazers when the NBA returns.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
That’s probably an appropriate way to characterize the steam that’s been picking up over the last week regarding the eventual return of the NBA. What the plan exactly will be is yet to be determined, but there are potential scenarios surfacing left and right. And with the NHL officially having a resumption blueprint set in stone, we’re probably not too far away from learning The Association’s fate.
In an effort to prepare ourselves for that day, Basketball Insiders has begun an x-factor series for each team around the current playoff picture. Basically, “if this happens…” or “what if this player is healthy?” type of scenarios are what we’re looking at. Ben Nadeau kicked us off Tuesday with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. Today, we’re going to look at the Portland Trail Blazers, who are in a similar situation out in the Western Conference.
Scratching and clawing for that final seed to make the postseason for the seventh straight season, the Blazers have work to do at 29-37. They’re going to need help in the standings race with several other squads surrounding them chasing after the same thing. Along with the Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, Portland is 3.5 games back of the West’s eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Even the San Antonio Spurs are hanging by a thread with their playoff streak in jeopardy with a four-game hole in the standings.
We can technically call this our first dependent situation. There is going to be a ton of schedule watching around these five teams. It’s all contingent on the NBA’s decision about how to go about a return — a 72-game benchmark, a play-in tournament, straight to the postseason, etc. Who’s going to have an easier schedule? Who’s going to have more games to play and increase their chances?
For example, the Blazers could have six games left to play to make up that gap on the Grizzlies, a team that was next up on their list in a pivotal head-to-head scenario. The Spurs, however, would have nine games to try and right the ship — by far the highest amount of contests in comparison to the four others they’re fighting against. None of this is concrete because we don’t know what solution the league is going to agree upon; that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t come to mind as a hypothetical.
Then, there’s that Damian Lillard guy. You know, the dude that is Portland’s franchise. The man that went on a mid-January to early February eight-game run where he absurdly averaged over 45 points, 9.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds, while nailing 53 percent of both his field goals and three-balls. He averaged 40 minutes in this stretch, quite literally putting the team on his back to keep pace with the surging Grizzlies.
Lillard’s publicly come out and said flat-out that if the league elects to go with the benchmark idea, he wouldn’t participate. He’d gladly support his teammates and join them, just not on the court for games. Speaking with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, the All-Star point guard expressed his desire for a tournament-style setup where there are playoff implications on the line. Suiting up to satisfy certain criteria with no incentive isn’t his preferred method of return. He wants to compete and, considering the effect of rustiness and other unknowns that could play a factor in these hypothetical matchups, Lillard would love for Portland to be the group that knocks others out unexpectedly.
Let’s not forget that the Blazers could have two starting-caliber players back that would’ve made their return from injury at some point this past March, either. Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins have their own specific capabilities that can dramatically improve what the team’s been missing since the beginning of the year.
Nurkic is an outstanding interior presence that brings physicality and finishing ability, as well as a big body to secure rebounds and dare opponents to come into the paint. This is no knock on Hassan Whiteside, who has arguably had the best season of his career as a blocking and boarding machine. It’s more about the lack of depth behind him, which is where Nurkic can step right in without Portland losing its reliability at the five. It’s been a revolving door at backup center for the Blazers, which has allowed the opposition to attack at will and get easy buckets. Nurkic’s return will shut that right off, as well as give the second unit a reliable scoring option.
Collins, his frontcourt partner, was supposed to have a breakout campaign in store for the league. Instead, the athletic third-year big man suffered a dislocated left shoulder just three games into the season. While it has sidelined him since then, he was targeting March as a return target. Obviously, with the league suspending operations, that didn’t happen as planned. But with the calendar turning to June in less than a week, and with his optimism shining through his rehab, it’s probably OK to assume Collins is close to being in the clear for a comeback.
Collins brings things to the table that neither Nurkic nor Whiteside does — an ability to stretch the floor being the most obvious skill that stands out. He can knock down triples at a decent rate and, more importantly, create space for Lillard and CJ McCollum to operate. The 6-foot-11 power forward has quicker foot speed than the other bigs Portland has, too.
Though the Blazers should be plenty excited about Nurkic and Collins’ impending return, they also have to be realistic about how much those two will play. We already mentioned Collins’ shoulder dislocation, but Nurkic hasn’t been on the floor since Mar. 25 of last year. Terry Stotts and his coaching staff will have to pay close attention to each of their minutes. How that whole situation is handled will be crucial to ensure there’s no long-term damage done for any party.
Just like the rest of their competition, the Blazers will have to also monitor how their older veterans handle ramping things back up again. Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza are both in their mid-30s and have taken on a heavy minute load. They are starters who average over 30 minutes per game that just abruptly stopped playing for months. It isn’t going to be easy on anybody, but the younger players can probably recover and restart easier than those seasoned vets.
Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons are likely to come out of this hiatus with the most energy out of anybody simply because they’re the youngest guys on the team. We all know how hungry the dynamic duo of Lillard and McCollum is going to be. It’s exciting to think about.
All we can do now is wait to find out what the next steps are toward a restart.
Luckily for us, that news might not be too far away.
The X-Factors: New Orleans
Ben Nadeau kicks off a new Basketball Insiders series by examining potential game-changers for when the NBA resumes play.
Basketball is back, baby.
Well, sorta. OK, actually, not really. But they’re talking about it. Finally.
Beyond that, they’re apparently making true, meaningful progress. And although the NBA is circling through potential scenarios — bubble games, re-seeding, ignoring conferences, etc. — there’s a very real chance that this shindig gets underway by mid-July.
To celebrate the re-arrival of actual talk and analysis, Basketball Insiders is kicking off its newest series — this time, one that focuses on a real-life hypothetical. The idea of an x-factor is inherently goofy, typically leading to sentences like: “Well, if Player Z hits 43 percent of his three-pointers, they’ll be tough to beat.” And, yeah, duh.
Given the sport-wide break, there are some perfectly valid questions to be asked. For example, with an extra two months off, where does Victor Oladipo’s health stand? If he’s fully healthy, the Indiana Pacers are going to be a whirlwind of a problem for their higher-seeded first-round matchup. Could the return of Jonathan Isaac to the Orlando Magic ensure their postseason place? And, finally, Kevin Durant – a decision that looms large over every other potential proceeding.
But that’s not why we’ve gathered at this particular URL right now – that would be to discuss the New Orleans Pelicans, a franchise that currently finds itself 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Naturally, any chance for success depends on the NBA ratifying a plan that behooves the Pelicans’ hopes. Whether that’s a return to the regular season or a totally-invented play-in series, it doesn’t matter as New Orleans needs some help outside of their own good fortunes.
Should they get the opportunity to control their own fate, there’d be plenty to research and anoint as a Holier Than Thou X-Factor. We could talk about J.J. Redick’s 45.2 percent mark from three-point range or how his 110 postseason games are 28 more than the rest of the roster combined.
Maybe there’d be a paragraph or two on Brandon Ingram’s steady ascent to stardom. Ingram’s post-Los Angeles quest to become a sure-fire No. 1 option has been a compelling narrative, but can he do it when the games matter most? Lonzo Ball, the playmaking point guard, knocked down 21 of his 36 attempts from deep over the final four Pelicans games — if that were a permanent level of consistency for the pass-first general, then that would change everything, too.
And Jrue Holiday, the remaining cornerstone following the departure of Anthony Davis, would get his first chance to anoint himself as a hero in the football-heavy city. Surely, if the Pelicans are to sneak into the altered postseason — and, dare we say it, make some noise — those would be important conditions to quantify.
Still, for all the positives, negatives and worthy storylines out there for New Orleans, not a single one matters as much as Zion Williamson does.
Since the 19-year-old phenom debuted on Jan. 22, the Pelicans went 11-9. It’s not a spectacular showing, but one dragged down by losses to the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers twice. Generally speaking, however, Williamson wasted no time acclimating to the NBA and the numbers speak for themselves: 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 56.9 percent shooting.
The highlights include the 35 points he hung on the Lakers and six other occasions of 25 or more in just 19 games. Moreover, Williamson has only scored under 20 points on three occasions and shot worse than 50 percent twice — once 8-for-18 (44) in the other showing versus Los Angeles and a tough 5-for-19 effort (26.3) against the league-leading Bucks. Of course, if they hobbled into the postseason, they’d have to play those very same Lakers over and over again.
Alas, the so-called chosen one will have his fair share of questions when the season resumes. Remember that 4-for-4 explosion against the San Antonio Spurs in his career debut? Well, he’s just 2-for-9 otherwise, often going entire games without even hoisting from long range. Williamson wasn’t supposed to enter professional basketball as a three-point marksman, but that epic – and believe us, we don’t use that word lightly – introduction might have skewed the outlook.
At Duke, Williamson went just 24-for-71 (33.8 percent) from deep and it’ll be a weak link that follows him – just as it does Ben Simmons – for the time being. Free throws weren’t expected to be a major, glaring issue either as he hit on 64 percent in college and, well, he’s right around the same mark currently. If you ignore 1-for-6 and 3-for-8 showings during a couple of double-digit victories versus the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, that number looks even better too.
But enough about the few cons – of which Williamson has certainly made a focus during his quarantine workouts – what’s the ceiling? And how much should we be pulling for a postseason debut here? In a crazy campaign like this, the added bonus of Williamson-made magic might be a thread worth pulling for – even at the rejection of a Ja Morant-led foray instead.
Needless to say, if the resumed regular scenario arrives and the Pelicans have just five or so attempts to make up a 3.5 game deficit in the standings, Williamson probably wouldn’t play at all. It’s also certainly possible that the rookie was just shaking off the rust before — just ask the aforementioned Oladipo. After taking an entire year to recover from a brutal ruptured tendon, the former All-Star only averaged 13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 39.1 percent shooting, all would-be career-lows.
Bet your bottom dollar, however, that with an extra 60 days of training at full speed under his belt, Oladipo will be closer to 100 percent than ever – a much-needed boost to an already well-rounded Pacers side. Could a trained-up Williamson provide the same type of edge? Upon his debut, one of the few worries that lingered – aside from re-injury – was about his perceived stamina and fatigue. Getting dropped into high-intensity workouts against adults twice your age is no joke, but try it after three months of rehab following a preseason meniscus tear.
With that context, the fact that Williams averaged 20-plus points on nearly 30 minutes per game is a superhero-level accomplishment.
At 37.2 percent, the Pelicans are the NBA’s fourth-best three-point shooting franchise – so even if Williamson doesn’t come back ready to unleash from deep, his team will be. On top of that, New Orleans’ 116.2 points per game are tied for fourth-best, too. Between Williamson, Holiday, Ball, Ingram and Redick, scoring appears to be the least of their issues headed into a restarted season.
But the defensive rating of 111.6 is a cause for concern, the second-worst standing of any team still within arm’s reach of the postseason (Portland, 113.6). Williamson has posted an encouraging mark of 103.1 on that end through 19 games, which also happens to be the highest mark of anybody employed by New Orleans right now.
In fact, Williamson’s multi-position defense and overall athleticism have already left quite the footprint. Since his debut in January, the Pelicans have posted a defensive rating of 109.2 – good enough for the No. 8 spot across the entire league. The Williamson Effect is here to stay and it’ll only improve as the roster meshes and the rookie acclimates even further – that seems to be a foregone conclusion.
If you thought Williamson was impressive coming off a serious injury with no stamina, his elevated play – whether in assumed individual efficiencies or overall team impact – could push the Pelicans into new territory. Elsewhere, there are aspects of New Orleans that deserve attention but none are as postseason-transforming as the second return of Williamson – let us just hope that the NBA provides a stage for the show.
Looking Back At The Draft: The No. 12 Picks
David Yapkowitz assesses the 12th picks made in recent NBA Drafts and identifies the hits, misses and everything in-between.
The further you get into the NBA draft, the harder it is to categorize hits and misses. There aren’t many expectations with later draft picks, especially in the second round. If a player ends up panning out, then great. If they don’t, it’s no big financial loss for the team and they can easily cut ties. When you’re still in the lottery, however, you probably expect a little more than just an average player. Superstars are never guaranteed, especially with late lottery selections. But you probably would expect to have a quality rotation player if not probable starter with a late lottery pick.
Here at Basketball Insiders, we’re continuing our look back at the draft, pick by pick, with each of the No. 12 picks going back the last 10 drafts. Let’s see how those picks have panned out.
Steven Adams – Oklahoma City Thunder – 2013
The OKC Thunder didn’t have a lottery pick in the 2013 draft, but they acquired it from the Houston Rockets as part of the James Harden trade. With Adams, the Thunder certainly hit the mark. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo (who 13 other teams in addition to the Thunder passed on) and Rudy Gobert are players picked after Adams who have fared better.
Adams has become one of the best defensive players and rebounders in the league as well as a great screen setter and roll man in the pick and roll. He plays his role to perfection and is a starting-caliber center. He may not have hit All-Star status, but he is a legit starter and with a lottery pick, that’s probably what you would expect.
Gerald Henderson – Charlotte Bobcats – 2009
I’m going with a hit on this one. Henderson played nearly all of his eight-year career with the Bobcats with the exception of his final two years with the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers respectively. He was unfortunately forced into early retirement due to nagging injury issues.
But for the eight years he was in the NBA, he was a capable scorer and mostly a starting-caliber wing player. As mentioned, with a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you should expect. Henderson averaged double-digits in scoring for most of his career and he shot in the mid-’40s from the field. If not for injuries, he probably would have played in the NBA for a few more years.
Xavier Henry – Memphis Grizzlies – 2010
Going back to the last ten drafts, Henry is the only player picked No. 12 that I would consider to be a miss thus far. He had some hype coming out of Kansas and was expected to be a first-round pick and NBA contributor. He didn’t play much as a rookie with the Grizzlies and was traded to the New Orleans Hornets.
He showed some brief flashes with the Hornets but never really was able to sustain any sort of consistent success. He got hurt during his stint with the Los Angeles Lakers and that pretty much ended his NBA career after five years. He’s had a couple of G League appearances since then but didn’t really show that he was ready for an NBA return.
The Middle of the Road
Taurean Prince – Atlanta Hawks – 2016
Again, for a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you expect your selection to develop into. Prince is here under the middle of the road rather than hits because it’s still too early in his career to determine if he is truly a full-time starter.
With the Hawks, he certainly looked the part. After a so-so rookie year, he stepped up in a big way, becoming a scorer and deadly three-point shooter with solid defensive capabilities. When he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last summer, he was considered to be a big pick up. This season, although he started in 61 of the 64 games he suited up in Brooklyn, his shooting suffered and he wasn’t as effective as he had been in Atlanta. There is still time for him to be considered a hit though.
Jeremy Lamb – Houston Rockets – 2012
Lamb is another player who had some high expectations coming out of college but got off to a rocky start in the NBA. He showed some flashes in Oklahoma City but was wildly inconsistent. But like many players, a change of scenery seemed to be all he needed.
He broke out when he arrived in Charlotte, becoming a solid bench scoring threat and becoming more of a regular in the starting lineup as the years went on.
He rightfully earned himself a solid payday from the Indiana Pacers and he started 42 of the 46 games he played in. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a season-ending injury in February. The Pacers are hoping he can bounce back from that.
Luke Kennard – Detroit Pistons – 2017
Another player that is still a little early to categorize. For now, he appears to be a middle of the ground type player. This is only his third year in the NBA, and he’s shown improvement each year. This season was a breakout year for him.
Since coming to the league, he’s been a very good three-point shooter. This season he was knocking down 39.9 percent of his attempts. His scoring has gone up every season and this year he had broken through to double-digits. He has some injury concerns, and he was actually out when the NBA suspended the season. But if he can bounce back healthy, then he certainly looks like a solid pick at No. 12.
The Role Players
Trey Lyles – Utah Jazz – 2015
In a league where the game is changing and traditional big men aren’t as common as they used to be, Lyles fits right in. Lyles seemingly was another case of a player who needed a change of scenery to find his niche. He wasn’t able to stick in either Utah or Denver, and it wasn’t until this season, his first in San Antonio, that he looked like a capable role player.
Lyles became a regular starter for the Spurs, and again, that’s what you want from a lottery pick. He isn’t included in the hits yet because this is the first season out of his five that he’s shown this. He doesn’t have a big enough sample size. He shot a career-best 38.7 percent from three and if he keeps this up, he’ll be a good pick albeit a late bloomer.
Alec Burks – Utah Jazz – 2011
Burks once looked like he was going to become more than just a solid NBA player. He might have had borderline All-Star potential. At least a starting-caliber shooting guard. But unfortunately for him, his career was seemingly derailed by early injuries.
He has since bounced back though. He’s reinvented himself as a scoring threat off the bench. He put up a career-high 16.1 points per game with the Golden State Warriors in the first half of the season. On a playoff team though, he’s a second unit player and that’s exactly what the 76ers were hoping for when they traded for him. He only had 11 games in Philly before the season was halted, but he’s done well to change his game and be effective despite major injuries.
Too Early to Tell
Dario Saric – Orlando Magic – 2014
I’m introducing a new category here, the too early to tell group. These players either don’t have a big enough sample size, or they have had circumstances that may have hindered their abilities. Saric falls into the latter part of that. He’s been a solid starting stretch-four when he’s gotten consistent playing time. But he struggled to adapt to being thrown around in different roles and inconsistent minutes with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns. He’s a pending restricted free agent who might not figure to be in the Suns future plans. Quite a few teams should consider throwing an offer his way.
Miles Bridges – Charlotte Bobcats – 2018
It’s a bit too early to make any major assessments on Bridges. This is only his second year in the NBA, a season that has been cut short. He mostly came off the bench as a rookie and had a pretty solid year with some aspects he could certainly improve upon. He looked much improved this season albeit some areas he could still work on.
He became a regular starting small forward for the Bobcats this season. He upped his scoring and rebounding and he’s often asked to guard multiple positions. He’s young and has a lot of room to improve. I don’t quite feel comfortable yet placing him in one of the above categories so that’s why he’s too early to tell. The future does look good for him though.
The later you go in the draft, the fewer expectations you put on the player you drafted. Franchise level players are not common, there are only a handful in the league. But at least with first-rounders, and especially a lottery pick, you’d expect to get at least a quality rotation player.
Judging by the production of the all the No. 12 picks for the past ten years, it’s safe to say that they all have, or look like they will pan out in some capacity. Only one of them is a sure-fire miss.