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Which Teams Need to Upgrade Their Rotation?

Which teams are being dragged down by dead weight? Nate Duncan examines some teams that need a change.

Nate Duncan

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When evaluating the prospects of NBA teams, the focus is so often on their top-end talent. Rightly so, considering the impossibility of winning without it. But another often overlooked variable is the number of actively bad players getting rotation minutes.

With the rise of plus/minus based metrics, we can see more than ever the impact of subpar players on good teams’ bottom lines. For squads with rotational black holes like these, the addition of even a competent NBA rotation player can have an enormous stabilizing effect.

Keep in mind that you won’t see a team like, say, Cleveland on this list. They really need a starting big who can protect the rim, and that’s a much bigger piece than we are talking about here. The idea here is teams that could make a minor deal and improve by adding a competent cog to keep replacement-level players out of the lineup.

Chicago Bulls Wing

Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau has taken his share of heat for extending his players for too many regular season minutes. The last two years’ poster child for the Thibs meat grinder is Jimmy Butler, who leads the league in minutes per game at 40.1 and routinely logs 43 minutes or more in the course of playing entire second halves. The criticisms of Butler’s minutes have merit, both in the short-term (he can look exhausted in the fourth quarter) and the long-term, as he may get worn down by the end of the season.*

*It should be noted that no study that I am aware of in the public domain has truly shown that players’ performance declines with more minutes. The theory makes intuitive sense, and it may well be true, but we should be wary of treating it as gospel until it is actually proven.

However, Thibodeau would feel much better about sitting Butler if the Bulls could find a competent third wing. Tony Snell has failed in that role and is now all but out of the rotation after failing to score a point in December. Kirk Hinrich is a player beloved by his coaches, and the little things he does like ball denials, defensive execution and running the offense have value. However, his 47.8 True Shooting Percentage and 35 percent field goal shooting on twos have a lot more negative value. He is barely a rotation player at this point, especially not at shooting guard where his inability to create leads to precious time bleeding off the shot clock whenever he receives the ball in the clutch. The Bulls have taken to playing E’Twaun Moore in Hinrich’s absence with a hamstring injury, and while he is a bit more confident creating off the dribble, his numbers overall are as ugly as Hinrich’s.

Miami HEAT Big

Despite the fact it did not impress LeBron James, the signing of Josh McRoberts in the offseason was an excellent value since they landed him on a four-year contract worth $22.6 million. And when McRoberts has played, he has been exactly what the HEAT need. Sadly for Miami, he effectively missed the first couple weeks with toe issues and is now out for the season after a meniscus repair. That leaves the big rotation behind Chris Bosh as Shawne Williams, Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen, Hassan Whiteside and Justin Hamilton. Andersen is effective, but can only reliably play about 20 minutes per game at age 36. Haslem still executes on D, but can’t protect the rim and Miami couldn’t score with him on the floor even when it had James. Williams has a surprising 61.1 True Shooting Percentage, but the HEAT can’t really hope to stop anyone with both he and Bosh on the floor. Whiteside is unproven, while Hamilton has proven himself as more of an end-of-the-bench quality player. If Miami is to maintain a playoff spot, it will need a better performance out of the non-Bosh bigs, especially on defense.

Clippers Backup Point Guard

Oh, you thought it was going to be a wing? Yes, they absolutely could use another one. Maybe they can trade another first-round pick to get back Jared Dudley, who has been excellent as a bench wing and small-ball four for Milwaukee. Snark aside, it must be noted that Los Angeles’ righting of the ship after an early-season swoon has coincided with the revival of Matt Barnes, who now has a 59.9 True Shooting Percentage while taking 56 percent of his shots from downtown.*

*It’s amazing how much a good or bad few weeks at the start of the season can skew our perception of players. So often we assume when a player starts a season hot or cold that the intervening offseason has caused this “new” level of performance. So it was with Barnes, who started the year cold and torpedoed the Clips’ offense as teams helped off him with impunity. That has not been the case since the first few weeks of the year.

Instead, the bigger problem has been backup point guard. While Doc Rivers surely hopes to reduce 29-year-old Chris Paul’s minutes, the Clippers have been outscored by 8.2 points per 100 possessions with him off the floor. Jordan Farmar, who was signed to replace Darren Collison with the Bi-Annual Exception, has been a disappointment. While he has made standstill threes at a decent rate, he has been completely unable to create for others. Overall, he has managed a mere 8.4 PER. Farmar has missed significant time with hamstring issues that have plagued him much of his career, and is a good bet to miss more time this year given his history. Behind him, unproven Jared Cunningham has a 5.6 PER and 42.0 True Shooting Percentage in limited minutes. He has not shown he is much of a distributor even if he can get his own offense going.

With the Clippers precariously near the apron, few expendable trade assets on the roster and major problems trading future first-rounders (they already owe one to the Celtics for Doc Rivers and one to the Bucks for dumping Dudley over the summer), they may just have to hope Farmar returns to the form he flashed last year for the Lakers.

Mavs Backup Big

The Mavericks’ loss of Brandan Wright in the Rajon Rondo deal was a major one. Sans Wright, the Mavs are relying on Greg Smith and Charlie Villanueva behind Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler. Dallas has been totally unable to score with Smith on the floor. His floor-bound game as a beefy, undersized center has not provided the same threat as Wright’s alley-oop finishing for the second unit. All told, the Mavs have been outscored by 4.3 points/100 in his court time, which is telling for a team with a positive 7.3 net rating. Villanueva has shot well, but provides little resistance on defense even at his natural power forward slot.

Incidentally, for those who have blamed Rondo for the Mavs’ perceived poor performance since the trade, note that the Mavs are outscoring teams by 10.7 points/100 with him on the court. The loss of Wright has hurt, but that isn’t Rondo’s fault. While the tables may turn, to this point it’s hard to say the team is performing poorly because of Rondo. Dallas has been linked to some free agent centers, such as Jermaine O’Neal, who may be able to help.

New Orleans Pelicans Smalls

Pelicans smalls might be the worst position group in the entire league among potential playoff contenders. Check out this list of luminaries: John Salmons, Luke Babbitt, Jimmer Fredette, Dante Cunningham and Austin Rivers. The Pelicans are now playing Cunningham the most of that group at the three; although he is a natural power forward, he is still better on the wing than the rest. Even if Eric Gordon comes back in relatively short order, there will still be a massive need on the wing and at backup point guard.

Like the Clippers, New Orleans has few tradeable assets after trading away what will likely be three consecutive first-rounders (two for Jrue Holiday and one for Omer Asik). With wings in short supply around the league, they likely do not have the assets to pick up a starter-level player at the three. But with the Knicks’ season continuing its descent into the maelstrom, Jose Calderon might be available as Phil Jackson turns to using his 2015 cap space and (potentially) maximizing his 2015 draft pick. Calderon would be a great fit for the Pelicans as a competent backup point guard who shoots the lights out and can pass (a skill in short supply in New Orleans). Calderon can also play with Jrue Holiday, who would guard twos and help alleviate the lack of decent wings. The downside of Calderon is his contract, which runs for another two seasons after this one at an average of $7.5 million per year. However, New Orleans has little chance of cap space in those years and his deal would not be immovable if needed as it nears its conclusion.

Would the Knicks be willing to offload Calderon for, say, a second-round pick, Rivers, Salmons and any other flotsam totaling only the minimum 66.7 percent of Calderon’s salary (and whomever else New York might want to trade), reducing their luxury tax bill in the process? It is difficult to imagine another team topping that offer, since Calderon’s contract and age probably make him a slightly negative asset. But for a front office under pressure with little way to improve, taking on Calderon makes sense.

Teams can sign free agents until the end of the regular season and make trades until the deadline on Feb. 19.

Nate Duncan is an NBA analyst and attorney. He writes regular features for Basketball Insiders and chats weekly at 11 Eastern on Tuesdays.

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A Few Good Free Agents Left

David Yapkowitz looks at several free agents still remaining on the market ahead of the season.

David Yapkowitz

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The start of the 2017-2018 NBA season is finally here, and teams are required to have their 15-man roster (plus two possible two-way contacts) finalized. Every year there are players that are left off a roster. Some are younger guys who maybe haven’t proven they belong in the league just yet. Some are older veterans looking for that one final hurrah.

A few of these players might take open gigs in the G-League or overseas in hopes of attracting the attention of NBA front offices as the year goes on. Others remain at home, working out and waiting for that call that might never come. And sometimes, the waiting and anticipating pays off as playoff teams come looking for veteran help and tanking teams are on the hunt for unrealized potential.

For most of the veteran guys, their opportunities will likely come later in the season when teams gear up for the playoffs. Here’s a look at a few of the top veteran free agents left that could certainly help a team at some point during this season.

David Lee

Since being traded from the Golden State Warriors to the Boston Celtics three year ago, Lee has adapted to his new role as a veteran big man helping to anchor second units. He is no longer the automatic double-double machine and borderline All-Star he once was, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have anything left in the tank.

He didn’t really fit quite right in Boston, but in his stops with the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, he still showed he can be a solid contributor off the bench. In 25 games with Mavericks in the 2015-2016 season, Lee put up 8.5 points per game on 63.6 percent shooting while pulling down seven rebounds per. With the Spurs last year, he averaged 7.3 points on 59 percent shooting to go along with 5.6 rebounds. For a playoff team that needs a little big man depth, he is a solid option.

Deron Williams

Much was made about Williams’ disappearing act in the Finals last year, and rightfully so, but lost in all the chatter was the actual solid job he did with the Cleveland Cavaliers leading up to that point. Once in the conversation for best point guard in the league, injuries and poor play in Brooklyn sort of made Williams a forgotten man. The Nets bought out his contract and he joined his hometown Dallas Mavericks.

After a so-so first year in Dallas, Williams looked rejuvenated last year to the point that he actually drew some interest around the trade deadline. With the Mavericks looking to get younger and head closer to that rebuilding path, they cut Williams and allowed him to join a contending team. Over the final 24 games of last season, including four starts, he averaged 7.5 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting, 41.5 percent from the three-point line, and 3.6 assists. Of course, his Finals performance is all anyone cares to remember, but if a team needs a veteran backup point guard, they could do a lot worse.

Monta Ellis

Last season in Indiana, Ellis posted some of the lowest numbers of his career since his rookie season. Heading into a rebuilding year, the Pacers waived Ellis and his name barely came up in free agent rumors during the summer. At his best, Ellis was a borderline All-Star talent who could put up points in a hurry. Despite his reputation as a gunner, Ellis was a bit of an underrated playmaker and was never as bad defensively as most made him out to be.

He never really seemed to find his groove in Indiana. In his first year with the Pacers during the 2015-2016 season, he posted 13.8 points per game, down from 18.9 the previous year in Dallas, and his shooting dropped from 44.5 percent from the field to 42.7 percent. His playoff numbers with the Pacers were down even more than his regular season numbers, despite exploding in the postseason a few years before with Dallas. His starting days are almost assuredly behind him, but as a sixth man type scorer bringing energy off the bench, he’s probably better than a lot of the players currently in that role.

Leandro Barbosa

The Brazilian Blur’s best days are behind him, but similar to Ellis, he can still help a team in need of additional scoring punch off the bench. It was only two years ago that he was a key contributor off the Warriors bench. Firmly on the rebuilding track, the Suns waived Barbosa during the summer. Despite still being a capable player, his name also rarely came up in the free agent rumor mill.

He didn’t play all that much last season for a Phoenix Suns team that is clearly rebuilding, but he still was able to average 6.3 points per game in only 14.4 minutes per. His role on a rebuilding team would be a veteran mentor, but for a playoff team, he’s not a bad option. He showed that he can still play at the NBA level despite losing a step or two. Perhaps later on in the season when teams start looking for playoff help is when he may find his phone starting to ring.

Derrick Williams

The former No. 2 overall pick in the 2011 draft hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations that come with being drafted that high. He’s only averaged double figures (12.0) in scoring once in his career and that was during the 2012-2013 season. When he came into the league, he didn’t really have much of a set position. He was a tweener, somewhere in between small forward and power forward. That was prior to the changes occurring in today’s NBA with more of a premium on stretch big men.

During Williams’ time in Cleveland last season, he played in 25 games and averaged 6.2 points per game. What stood out most, however, was his shooting. He shot 50.5 percent from the field, including 40.4 percent from the three-point line, both career-highs. Shooting from long range was always a bit of a weakness for him and prior to last season, he had never shot higher than 33.2 percent from downtown. He also didn’t register much chatter by way of free agent rumors, but if he can reproduce shooting percentages like that, he fits right in with the direction of the league.

With league rosters pretty much set, there likely won’t be much roster movement, if any at all, for the next few months. Teams are looking to see how their new summer acquisitions work out. But after a few months of real game action, other roster needs start to become more apparent. Don’t be surprised if come the new year, teams start knocking on a few of these player’s doorsteps.

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NBA PM: The Wizards Are “More Than Ready” For A Big Year

Washington Wizards shooting guard Bradley Beal says his team is “more than ready” for the start of the NBA season.

Buddy Grizzard

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With several teams in the Eastern Conference taking a step back, the Washington Wizards will be one of the beneficiaries due to roster continuity. Shooting guard Bradley Beal, one of several key Wizards signed to a long-term contract, said the team is “more than ready” for the season and has large expectations.

“This is going to be a big year for us,” said Beal after a Monday practice. “We’re healthy. There’s no excuse for us [not to] get off to a good start.”

Beal added that, while health is a key for the entire roster, it’s especially important for him after struggling with injuries in the past.

“It’s really a confidence booster, realizing my potential, what I can be, the type of player I can be when I had a healthy season,” said Beal of last year’s campaign. “That’s probably what I was more proud of than anything, playing 70-plus games and then playing in the playoffs every game.”

In Basketball Insiders’ season preview for the Wizards, we noted that Beal was Washington’s most efficient ball handler in the pick and roll last season. Beal said that creating for teammates is something he’s worked on in the offseason and will continue to be a point of emphasis.

“That was great for me and the strides I made throughout the year, working on my ball handling, working on creating for other guys and getting my own shot,” said Beal. “Those are the primary things I’m focused on … being able to create better, getting guys easier shots than before, getting more assists and improve everywhere.”

Wizards coach Scott Brooks said after Friday’s preseason finale in New York that he’s been encouraged by the ball movement he has seen since the start of camp.

“I thought a lot of good things happened in training camp,” said Brooks. “The ball movement was outstanding. Guys were sacrificing for one another on the offensive end.”

One thing that should help the ball movement of the second unit is the arrival of backup point guard Tim Frazier, who missed most of the preseason due to a strained groin. Frazier had nine assists and no turnovers in his preseason debut against the Miami HEAT.

“I feel very comfortable with Tim,” said Brooks. “He finds corner threes, which we like.”

Beal added that one area he hopes to improve, both individually and as a team, is rebounding.

“I think I only had like three rebounds [per game] last year,” said Beal. “I obviously love scoring the ball. That’s something I never worry about. I want to continue to fill up the stat sheet a little bit more and contribute to the game in different areas. I think rebounding was something that hurt us a little bit last year.”

The Wizards host the Philadelphia 76ers to open the season Wednesday, and Brooks said it will take a team effort to defend emerging star Joel Embiid.

“He’s a problem,” said Brooks after Sunday’s practice. “His athleticism is off the charts. We’re going to have to do a good job of staying in front of him. You’re talking about a guy that can put the ball on the floor, that can get to spaces and spots that normally a 6-10 guy doesn’t.”

With a revamped bench, roster continuity and good health entering the season, the Wizards look like a team that could challenge the Cavaliers, Celtics and Raptors for supremacy in the East. Beal certainly seems to think so.

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NBA Opening Night Storylines

Hours before the 2017-18 season gets set to tip off, here are some storylines to follow for Tuesday’s games.

Dennis Chambers

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The long summer is over. We finally made it. NBA opening night is upon us.

Rejoice, hoop heads.

Because the NBA is a perfect concoction of chaos at all times, Tuesday’s opening night slate has some can’t-miss built in headlines that the entire league is going to be glued to.

With a new year set to begin, everyone is on the same page. Whether that page includes the likes of Kevin Durant and Steph Curry or Doug McDermott and Tim Hardaway Jr. is a different story. But still, Tuesday marks day one for all teams and as it stands they’re all equal.

As we get set to sit down and dissect these opening game matchups on Tuesday, let’s highlight the most intriguing storylines that will be followed for the rest of the season. There’s nothing like watching a story grown in the NBA from its inception, right?

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers — 8 p.m. ET (TNT)

This is the game we’ve all been waiting for since late June, when Kyrie Irving let it be known to Cavs owner Dan Gilbert that he wanted out from under LeBron’s shadow.

Three years of NBA Finals appearances, the greatest comeback in basketball history, and a ring to show for was all Irving wanted to walk away from. For him, he felt it was his time to shine.

And because the NBA is the perfect mix of beautiful insanity, it would only make sense that Irving would get dealt to the very team that is jostling for position to unseat the Cavs and King James.

The Irving-led Boston Celtics will have to wait a grand total of one second in the new NBA season to begin their matchup with their point guards old teammates and the team that stands in between them a Finals appearance. With Gordon Hayward and Irving together for the first time against meaningful competition, there’s no better way than to check their fit from the jump than by challenging the conference champions in their building.

But Irving’s homecoming isn’t the only storyline heading into the first game of the season. There are some changes on Cleveland’s end as well.

While the main return for Irving — Isaiah Thomas — won’t be suiting up for the Cavs anytime soon due to injury, there are still plenty of new faces to keep an eye on Tuesday night. First and foremost, Flash is in town. After having his contract bought out by the Chicago Bulls, Dwyane Wade joined forces with his buddy in The Land in hopes of recapturing some of the magic that led them to two championships in South Beach.

By teaming up once again, James and Wade provide some of the best chemistry in the league. Yes, Wade isn’t the player he once was when he and James were winning rings. But something is to be said for knowing exactly where someone will be on the court at all times, and that’s the trait exactly that Wade and James share.

Along with Wade, James and the Cavs are hoping to get some type of resurgence from Derrick Rose and Jeff Green off of the bench. Once Thomas returns to the court for Cleveland, this is arguably the deepest team James has ever been around in Cleveland.

Even with Irving and Hayward on board, Boston will be relying on some role players of their own — namely Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The back-to-back third overall picks will occupy most of the time at the forward spots opposite of Hayward. As the season moves on, the development of both of these wings will be crucial to how dangerous the Celtics can be past their two star players.

Tuesday night will be must-see television at Quicken Loans Arena. New eras for the Eastern Conference heavyweights are about to begin.

And as James told ESPN’s Rachel Nichols, “The Kid” will be just fine.

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors — 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

On the Western side of the basketball landscape Tuesday night, the potential conference finals matchup will see its first act when the revamped Rockets head to the Bay Area.

Last season at this time, the basketball world was bracing for what the Warriors would look like after adding Kevin Durant to a 73-win team. And as expected, they dominated. Not even LeBron James could put a stop to them, managing just one win in their finals bout.

This year brings in more of the same questions. Can anyone stop the Warriors? Will Golden State just steamroll their way to another championship, effectively sucking the fun of competition out of the entire league?

Well, a few teams this offseason did their best to try and combat that narrative. One of them being the Rockets, who they added perennial all-star point guard Chris Paul to their backcourt.

Putting Paul in the same backcourt as superstar James Harden has the potential to create some of the biggest headaches for opposing teams. The constant ball movement and open looks the two star guards can provide are nearly endless.

While the league swoons over the Warriors’ ability to hit shots from well beyond the arc, it should be noted that it was Houston last year that led the NBA in three-point shooting, not Golden State. It’s certainly not wise to try and go toe-to-toe with the Warriors at their own game, but if there’s ever a team equipped to do it, it’s Houston. Tuesday night will provide a nice preview look at how things in the Western Conference could shake out in the coming months.

Aside from the barrage of scoring that will take place in this matchup, what would a big game be for the Warriors without a little Draymond Green trash talk?

After Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni told ESPN that, “You’re not gonna stop them. It’s just not gonna happen. They’re not gonna stop us, either,” Green clapped back with a comment of his own, as he always does.

“I don’t know how serious they take defense with that comment,” Green said. “But they added some good defensive players.”

It’s true, the Rockets aren’t considered a defensive stalwart by any means. Last season, Houston was 26th in points allowed, compared to second in points scored. Green may be onto something when it comes to questioning how serious his opponents take defense.

That being said, last year’s Rockets didn’t feature Paul. Even at the age of 32, Paul is still one of the league’s best on-ball defenders. And no matter his age, he’ll always possess that competitive fire he’s been known for over the last 12 years.

Going up against the Warriors at Oracle is usually nothing short of impossible, but if there’s going to be a team to challenge their supremacy this season, we’ll get a good look at how they stack up on night one.

With all of this in mind, let’s not forget that the world’s best league is finally back in action. Give yourself a pat on the back, you made it. Now, go enjoy some basketball.

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