Analyzing the Terry Rozier trade for the Miami Heat

Key Highlights:

• When analyzing a trade, you need to look at it from an on-court and asset perspective
• Terry Rozier is a great on-court fit for what the Miami Heat need
• The Heat may have paid less than they needed to here (depending on when the pick ends up conveying)

Terry Rozier is now a member of the Miami Heat. But did the Heat give the Charlotte Hornets too much to get him? With yet another 2023-24 trade in the books, we figured we would build on last week’s article and see if the Rozier acquisition was the right move from an asset standpoint.

A Good On-Court Fit

Before we start talking about how “valuable” players are from an asset standpoint, we want to be mindful that we don’t miss the forest for the trees.

From a purely on-court standpoint, this was a great move for Miami. And at the end of the day, in a league where the main goal is to win the NBA title, that is what’s most important.

Before this trade, Miami’s two biggest weaknesses were that they needed more spacing and three-level scoring without bleeding any defensive value. Rozier doesn’t completely remedy these problems, but he does offer some assistance.

On the year, Rozier is shooting just 35.8% from downtown. That appears to be, at least on the surface, pretty mediocre. But that’s because the Hornets were an injury-riddled and relatively talented-deprived bunch. So, Rozier had to resort to a lot of contested, high degree of difficulty jumpers.

When you look at his wide-open 3-point attempts (the kind of shots he’ll get more of playing next to Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo), you get a completely different picture. In the last three years, Rozier is converting on 44% of his wide open threes (86th percentile, per Thinking Basketball Database). So, he’ll be a wonderful spacer for the Heat.

As for three-level scoring, prior to this trade, Rozier was in the 86th percentile in scoring volume with a true shooting percentage near the league average (43rd percentile). You don’t post those numbers on a weak team if you are a one or two-dimensional scorer. Rozier also ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in rim attempts, midrange jumpers, and threes per 75 possessions (per Dunks & Threes). Simply put, he can get bucks from every part of the floor.

Defensively, Rozier is no Derrick White (hence why he was included in our combo guard study). But he showed us during his time with the Boston Celtics that he can fit into a strong defensive infrastructure (something the Heat are known for having). Overall, he boosts this team’s offense without hurting their defense.

How Much Is Rozier “Worth?”

Okay, now that we know Rozier is a really nice fit for Miami on the court, we can look at how savvy (or silly) of a deal this was for them.

In our NBA study on trades, we said that a solid starting player was worth an average first round pick (yes, we know all picks are not created equal, but you get the point). However, Rozier is a little better than a solid starting player.

For instance, Rozier’s Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (OFF EPM) currently ranks 29th in the entire NBA (2.9, 93rd percentile). His overall EPM (0.8, 76th percentile) is only 105th in the league. But that is mainly because being on such a poor team has killed his Defensive EPM (-2.2, 5th percentile).

When you account for all that, you could argue that Rozier is playing like a borderline top-75 player. That’s not as good as 2021-22 Ben Simmons (who we said was worth more like two first round picks). He was more like a top-50 player at the time he was traded. But it does make Rozier more than just a solid starter. So, we can assume that Rozier is worth a first round pick and another semi-valuable asset (like a second round pick).

Here, Miami got Rozier for a 2027 lottery-protected first round pick (that conveys in 2028 if it ends up in the lottery in 2027) and Kyle Lowry. Lowry has done a nice job of contributing to Miami’s last two postseason runs despite his body failing him. But with his age and contract (he’s making 29.7 million dollars this year), he’s nothing more than a salary matcher at this point in time. That means the only real asset Miami parted ways with here was the first round pick.

So, basically, the Heat got a great on-court fit for a little less than what it should have cost them. That’s what you call doing good business.

(Sidebar: The pick the Heat parted ways with in this trade could end up being pretty valuable if it doesn’t get conveyed in 2027, and they end up being bad in 2028. But that’s a different conversation for a different article. And let’s face it, as long as they have Erik Spoelstra and Pat Riley pulling the strings, they will always be competitive).