What a difference a year can make.
This time last year, the NBA was suffering from one of its most boring Rookie of the Year races seen in quite some time. Joel Embiid was finished for the season, playing just 31 games, despite putting up obscene numbers. Dario Saric was inconsistent and failed to string together a full season of competent play. Malcolm Brogdon wasn’t flashy by any means, but the second round pick was a key glue-guy for the playoff-bound Milwaukee Bucks. Eventually, that was enough to get Brogdon the nod over the two Philadelphia 76ers players.
None of that is the case this season, however, as two rookies are putting on a show for the ages and invigorating life and debate into an awards race that seemed all but locked up a month ago.
Ben Simmons or Donovan Mitchell?
It’s not a black-and-white question, and it certainly doesn’t have a black-and-white answer. But let’s attempt to clear up some of the gray area.
We’ll start with Mitchell.
Before the season, the likes of Simmons, Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum, and Dennis Smith Jr. were considered the leaders for the Rookie of the Year award. In fact, all of them were listed ahead of Mitchell at odds by Bovada. Scroll past those names, and a few others, and you would finally come across the Louisville product, with the ninth-best odds to win, at 20/1.
Following a forgettable first two weeks of the season for Mitchell, the 13th overall pick took off like a rocket, and hasn’t looked back since.
For the season, Mitchell is averaging a smooth 19.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists with a 54.4 true shooting percentage. Even more impressive, he’s doing so as the Utah Jazz’s first option.
When Gordon Hayward jumped ship for Boston, many assumed Rodney Hood would take a big leap forward offensively this season in Utah. Instead, the Jazz’s lottery pick took over so quickly and effectively that Hood now resides in Cleveland. Talk about life coming at you fast.
As Mitchell continued to pour in steady solid performances throughout this season, his candidacy for this award was always kept afloat. Even when Mitchell and the Jazz lost their star center, Rudy Gobert, to injury. In fact, without Gobert on the floor, Mitchell benefits from an ultra-green light on offense that correlates to his offensive rating spiking up to 108.9. That’s 2.3 points higher than his season average number and 6.7 points higher than when he shares the court with Gobert.
Because Mitchell has such an advanced repertoire on offense, he can keep Utah in games despite missing their defensive anchor. His individual defensive rating also jumps to 108.9 without Gobert, giving him a nearly even net rating mainly due to his ability to light up the scoreboard.
Coupled with his numbers, Mitchell has the Jazz smack dab in the middle of playoff contention. Amidst their current 11-game winning streak, Mitchell has led the team in scoring — the first rookie ever to accomplish such a feat during a stretch of that kind.
All of these statistics paint a pretty clear picture that Mitchell is without a doubt an impactful player in today’s NBA, despite being a rookie. In most other years, he’d likely run away with the Rookie of the Year award.
Unfortunately for him, and the player he’s jostling for the award, this isn’t one of those years.
Right off the bat, it’s clear offensively that Simmons doesn’t have the scoring prowess Mitchell benefits from. He’s taken just 35 shots this entire season between 15 and 24 feet on the court, making 13 of them. Simmons lives in the paint, and it’s no secret.
Despite refusing to take jump shots on most nights, with opponents very aware of his limitations, Simmons manages to average 16.5 points per game, and even more impressively, finishes his shots around the rim at a 73.5 percent clip. For reference, LeBron James wasn’t that effective inside the restricted area until his seventh year in the NBA.
Scoring isn’t what is going to win Simmons the award, though. Everything else he does on the court will. Like averaging 7.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists a night as the team’s point guard, while leading the league (not just rookies) in touches. At 21 years old, the Sixers handed the keys to the offense of a player who before this season never played point guard in his life.
For Philadelphia, that seems to be working out just fine. The Sixers are 30-25 heading into the All-Star break in large part because of the way Simmons orchestrates their offense.
Like Mitchell, though, Simmons benefits from a star big man on the block. With Embiid and Simmons on the court, the Sixers possess one of the league’s top defenses. In fact, the duo holds the lowest opponent field goal percentage in the league, at 40.9 percent.
When Embiid is off of the floor, Simmons’ impact shifts, pretty apparently too. That’s the main narrative that gives way to Mitchell placing himself so heavily in the conversation. Without his 7-foot-2 big man, Simmons’ offensive rating dips from his usual 106.5 to 100.9 (eight points lower than Mitchell without Gobert). Simmons’ defensive rating jumps a bit as well, as one would expect given his workload in the post increasing as Embiid sits. That number bumps up from 101.5 to 105.
As noted above, Mitchell’s ability to score at will keeps things close in the advanced metrics for the Jazz. Simmons doesn’t have that luxury, and it’s reflected in the numbers. But it’s key to point out that while Simmons dips below his usual numbers when Embiid is off of the floor, so does Mitchell when he misses Gobert.
Simmons’ defensive rating, with and without his big man, is still superior to Mitchell’s. Along with an array of other advanced statistics. Simmons leads Mitchell in Box Plus-Minus (3.4 to 0.8), Defensive Real Plus-Minus (1.91 to -0.33), and Real Plus-Minus Wins (6.32 to 4.23).
Those numbers account for an individual’s impact across an average of 100 possessions, taking into account the points their responsible for in reflection to their team’s success.
But if you don’t want to bored with nerdy advanced numbers, we can take it old school as well.
In NBA history just six players have finished a season averaging at least 16 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists per game while shooting 50 percent from the field: LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, and Wilt Chamberlain.
At his current pace, Simmons would become the seventh player to do so. That’s elite company.
With his triple-double Wednesday night against the Miami HEAT, in a game without Embiid that saw the Sixers come back from a 23-point halftime deficit, Simmons notched his sixth such game this season. Since 1980, only one other rookie has eclipsed that number. That was Johnson, who finished the season with seven triple-doubles. Simmons has 27 more chances to beat Johnson’s total.
Statistics are important. So are teammates. Basketball isn’t an individual sport. What Mitchell and Simmons have both been able to accomplish thus far this season cannot be understated. Their incredible performances are main reasons as to why their teams are in the playoff hunt.
It’s unclear which player will be better five years from now; honestly, it’s unclear at times which player is better right now. Mitchell can score in bunches, and his shots from beyond the arc are sexy. There’s no denying his ability.
But what Simmons is doing this season is historic and unprecedented, not only for his age or rookie status, but in general. That at the moment gives him the edge.
Bobby Portis’ Time to Shine
Bobby Portis talks to Basketball Insiders about his increased role on offense, the Bulls’ young core of talent and more.
When the Chicago Bulls acquired Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo in the summer of 2016, it was assumed that they were gearing up for another strong season and a playoff appearance. Fred Hoiberg had just finished up his first season as head coach and the team ended with a decent 42-40 record, albeit missing the playoffs.
They struggled the following season, however,but snuck into the postseason as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with a 41-41 record. They put a brief scare into the Boston Celtics in the first round, but Bulls management ultimately decided to move in another direction. They traded franchise cornerstone Jimmy Butler, bought out Wade’s contract and allowed Rondo to sign elsewhere.
The departure of their veteran players opened up minutes and opportunities for the younger guys on the team, in particular, Bobby Portis. Currently, in his third year with the Bulls, Portis was surrounded by veteran guys during his first couple of years in the league. It’s a different type of environment now in Chicago.
“We went from a veteran-led team, very experienced team, to now having guys on the team here who have never played in the playoffs,” Portis told Basketball Insiders. “It’s a different team, but at the same time we’re gonna grow together and get better together.”
A McDonald’s All-American coming out of Hall High School in Little Rock, Arkansas, Portis was one of the best college basketball players in the nation during the 2014-15 season. He was named the SEC Player of the Year and he declared for the NBA Draft after his sophomore season at the University of Arkansas.
He was selected with the 22nd overall pick in the 2015 draft but having joined a team that had serious playoff aspirations, he saw only sporadic playing time as a rookie. His second year in the NBA, he started seeing increased playing time, but he still had a string of DNP’s throughout the year. His role changed this season when the Bulls front office started heading down the rebuilding path.
“I’m just playing more minutes and actually having a defined role on the team. I don’t have to come in worried if I’m gonna play or not, I know I’m gonna play,” Portis told Basketball Insiders. “That’s the biggest thing for me. Also, the coaching staff having the utmost confidence in me to go out there every night and do what I do.”
This season, he’s emerged as one of the young Bulls most dependable reserves. He’s averaging a career-best 21.3 minutes per game while putting up 13 points on a career-high 10.7 field goal attempts and shooting 47.5 percent from the field. He’s also improved his outside shooting, connecting on 34.7 percent of his attempts from the three-point line.
With many of the Bulls top scoring options gone, Portis has had to take on a much bigger role in the Bulls’ offense. On Thursday night against the Philadelphia 76ers, he dropped a career-high 38 points on 57.7 percent shooting and 6-9 shooting from beyond the arc. In the Bulls’ 22 games since Jan. 1, he’s only failed to reach double-figures in scoring in seven of those games.
“I always say my role is to bring energy and toughness off the bench. Now I feel like my role has changed a little bit,” Portis told Basketball Insiders. “I have to be more aggressive on the offensive end, even more so than last year. Going out there and trying to make my teammates better, moving the basketball, sharing the basketball, trying to lead by example.”
Although he’s been playing better personally, he’s also seen a change in the team as a whole as the season has progressed. The Bulls dug themselves into a hole to begin the season, losing 17 of their first 20 games. They had a much better stretch during their next 20 games, winning 11 of them, including seven consecutively.
“We’re learning how to close games out, learning how to finish games. That’s something we didn’t do earlier in the season, we let other teams come back and win,” Portis told Basketball Insiders. “We’re learning some of each other’s tendencies with the basketball. Having chemistry on the court is always big.”
And as the Bulls move forward with their rebuilding project, they seem to have found at least one player in Portis who can be a part of that. He still has another year left on his contract before he can become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2019. He likes what he sees from the Bulls’ young core, and it’s something he’d like the continue to be a part of.
“Guys are going out there and getting minutes,” Portis told Basketball Insiders. “That’s the biggest thing in this league, you play more minutes you get more experience. It’s having an opportunity.”
NBA Daily: Jimmy Butler’s Potential Absence Could Doom Minnesota
Should Jimmy Butler miss an extended period of time, the Minnesota Timberwolves could lose footing quickly in the tight Western Conference playoff race.
Say it ain’t so, Basketball Gods.
In his first game back from the All-Star break, coincidentally after logging zero minutes in the glorified exhibition game, Jimmy Butler left Friday night’s game with an apparent knee injury.
If the worst comes to fruition — a season-ending injury — Butler would join a laundry list of players whose seasons have been cut short.
Butler’s Minnesota Timberwolves are in the midst of battling for position amongst their Western Conference peers for playoff spots. At the time of Butler’s injury, seeds three through nine are all separated by one game in the loss column.
Calling it a tight race out West would be a vast understatement. With a few more than 20 games to play, the seeding could land in a different order on basically a nightly basis. And for a team like Minnesota, losing their All-Star and veteran presence could be catastrophic.
But, not all hope is lost.
David Aldridge reported Friday night that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel.
MRI Saturday will give final word, but there is some optimism in @JimmyButler camp that he may have at least avoided the worst—an ACL tear—on Friday.
— David Aldridge (@daldridgetnt) February 24, 2018
Given how tight the race is amongst the conference, losing Butler for any extended period of time is going to be a big blow to the way Minnesota operates. Very literally, Butler produces a drastic improvement on both ends of the court his team.
On the surface, Butler’s averages are good. They don’t blow you away, but it’s clear that his presence is felt on a nightly basis. 22.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and five assists with a 59.3 true shooting percentage is more than worthy of an All-Star selection. But to the naked eye, it doesn’t scream that he’s the team’s most valuable player by a long shot.
So, let’s dig a little deeper.
When Butler is on the court, Minnesota benefits from a 116.3 offensive rating. Houston and Golden State have 115.7 and 115.4 offensive ratings for the season, respectively. The addition of Butler creates more free space for the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins to play with.
Speaking of those two, with the addition of an established superstar like Butler, they’ve been able to focus more on playing basketball than leading a locker room, allowing for growth in their games — Towns especially.
Truly coming into his own as one of the league’s best big men this season, arguably nobody on Minnesota’s roster benefits more from Butler’s performance on the wing than Towns does. On the court together, Towns sports a pretty 114.1 offensive rating, which produced a satisfying 9.3 net rating. That’s winning basketball.
Take Butler away, though, and things get ugly. Fast.
Because of his vast arsenal of offensive versatility, Towns’ offensive rating doesn’t suffer when Butler isn’t in the fold. But his defense? Well, it falls off of a cliff. Towns’ defensive rating balloons to 120.9, bringing that once impressive 9.3 net rating all the way down to -6.5. Butler alone accounts for a 15.8 point swing in Towns’ net rating. The levels of codependency from Towns to Butler in relation to effective basketball are incredibly concerning if the latter is lost for an extended period of time.
Basketball isn’t just a two-man game, though. So, while Minnesota’s younger All-Star benefits greatly from his elder counterpart, maybe the rest of the roster isn’t in such bad shape without him, right?
In fact, as you could probably assume, the production for the Timberwolves as a whole plummets when Butler grabs a seat on the bench. Shooting percentage, net rating, assist rate, rebound rate, finishing at the rim, defending and just about any other conceivable statistic you can find is worse for Minnesota when Butler isn’t on the floor.
Beyond all of the stats though, Butler represented more to the Timberwolves this season. He was the star to get the team over the hump. The veteran two-way impact player that could take just enough of the load off of the two budding studs in Towns and Wiggins to make Minnesota a threat night in and night out. Tom Thibodeau brought Butler over from Chicago because he knew the level of work ethic and leadership he would bring to a team that had talent, but needed guidance.
Up until Friday night, the pieces were falling into place.
The state of Minnesota will hold its collective breath while waiting for the results of Butler’s MRI. For the sake of Timberwolves fans, the organization and most importantly, Butler himself, hope for a clean scan.
Without it, and without Butler, the team could find itself in a free-fall amid this clustered Western Conference playoff race.
Otto Porter Jr., Washington Wizards Aiming For Consistency
Spencer Davies has a one-on-one talk with Otto Porter about the Wizards’ up-and-down season and why they’ve been clicking over the last few weeks.
When a team loses an All-Star point guard after dropping four out of five games while other teams continue to improve and climb up the standings, it’s usually a sign that things are headed south.
But the Washington Wizards have debunked that thanks to a commitment from literally every man on the roster to step up. Since John Wall went down with injury, they’ve won eight out of their last 10 games and are a half game back of the Cleveland Cavaliers for the number three seed in the Eastern Conference.
Why that is, is simple—there’s a balance.
“Everybody eats” is the mantra that Wall’s backcourt partner Bradley Beal came up with when the tide started to turn and the D.C. family has been living by it for weeks now.
The setback has definitely forced them to alter their style of play, but it hasn’t been a bad thing so far, according to Wizards head coach Scott Brooks.
“It’s definitely a challenge missing one of the best guards, one of the best players in the league,” Brooks said before Thursday’s game in Cleveland. “We’ve had to change definitely the way we play a little bit. We couldn’t expect our point guards to play like John. His speed you just don’t come by often.
“We have to play a little different. I think guys have stepped up defensively. We’ve played well. We definitely had some favorable games go our way with the scheduling, but the challenge is ahead of us now. We’ve got a lot of tough games coming up, but we just have to still keep playing and focus on each game.”
Otto Porter has been somebody who’s really kicked it into gear at a higher level and looks like himself again after a tough start to the New Year. Since January 30th, he’s averaging 18.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and over a steal per game. On nearly 14 attempts per game during the stretch, he’s shot above 52 percent from the field.
When asked how Washington can best fill the void of Wall while he’s on the sidelines, he said it’s not possible to. Rather than focusing on that specific facet, it’s a responsibility of the group collectively to keep trending in the right direction.
“You don’t,” Porter told Basketball Insiders. “I mean you just have to, next man up. You really can’t. X-Factor is everybody steppin’ up. With the guys that we have, it’s very simple. Just go out there and play for each other.
“Getting out in transition. Getting stops. Creating points. Threes. The ball going from side to side. That’s how we play. We goin’ through adversity, so we took the challenge.”
Mind you, this is a Wizards team that was once reportedly divided in the locker room. There were rumblings of disdain among certain players. Tweets, Instagram posts, and on-air interviews fueled the fire even more as the losses continued to pile up.
However, we all know the solution to any sort of rough patch is winning games. As soon as the victories started to come, the noise started to quiet down more and more.
“That’s with any sport for real,” Porter told Basketball Insiders after inquiring whether the negativity was overblown.
“I mean you gon’ have your ups and downs. You gon’ have that. But we’re gonna stick together no matter the wins or the losses. We’re gonna stick together. We’re not gonna let anything break us apart. That’s just how we feel.”
The All-Star break came at a good time for Porter, who admitted to Basketball Insiders that he was playing through with nagging injuries in the first half of the season and getting a week to see family and recuperate “was what I needed.”
In the meantime, he kept in contact with Beal, who was experiencing his first All-Star weekend in four years, except this time around he was selected by Team LeBron as a part of the big game.
“All-Star, he said he was mad busy,” Porter told Basketball Insiders of Beal’s hectic three days in Los Angeles. “That sucks ‘cause you know you really wanna—I mean All-Star is cool, but the guys all busy during All-Star. Seeing people, events, stuff like that, so you don’t really get a break. He enjoyed it though.”
Porter raved over the season Beal has had and what it’s meant to Washington. There hasn’t been a change in mentality at all, but the improvements are evident.
“He’s always been motivated,” Porter told Basketball Insiders. “Each year he’s adding bits and pieces to his game every year that make him a threat and it shows this year.”
Another teammate of Porter’s that has taken on the challenge is Kelly Oubre. This month hasn’t been kind to him so far as a shooter, but taking the season as a whole, the third year forward is hitting a career-high 36.9 percent of his threes and averaging close to 12 points per game.
Not only that, but Oubre is always locked in defensively with an in-your-face method of guarding his opponents. It’s a physical style that constantly bothers opponents and most of the time, it works.
“He’s been improving,” Porter told Basketball Insiders. “He’s been putting in a lot of work. I’ve seen him put in so much work this offseason on his shot improving his mechanics and it’s paying off.
“Aggressive defensively, getting his hands on a lot of balls, deflections, steals. That’s what we want from him every game.”
Brooks has rewarded Oubre and Porter’s efforts by giving them a ton of playing time, something that he doesn’t see changing anytime soon considering the job they’ve done with the extra load.
“They’re gonna have to keep playing a lot of major minutes and keep getting better along the way,” Brooks said. “Otto’s really steady, solid. He’s started to make some shots again.
“And Kelly, he hasn’t shot the ball well in February, but we need him to break out of that and start shooting the ball better. With Kelly to me, it’s always how he’s locked in and focused on the defensive end.”
In order for the Wizards to continue scaling the ranks in the East it’s going to come down to consistency, a hurdle that they’ve tried to clear in past years and have a goal of leaping this season.
“We have to,” Brooks said. “Firstly, just takes that consistent effort to win games. This is not an easy league. Nobody feels sorry for you. Nobody gives you wins. You’ve got to go out there and earn it.
“I like the spirit of our team. We’re willing to accept the challenges. We know it’s not gonna be easy, but I like how we’re playing.”
Porter’s personal goal is to make it through 82 games healthy, but he agrees with his head coach about Washington’s top priority as a team.
“Right now yeah, it’s consistency,” Porter told Basketball Insiders. “And just sticking to what we do, sticking to our character. We know what type of players we are. We know how to play the right way and play Wizards basketball, so that’s what we’re gonna focus on.”
So far, so good.
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