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Simmons and Mitchell Locked in a Heated NBA Rookie of the Year Battle

As the NBA hits the All-Star break, Ben Simmons and Donovan Mitchell are in a heated race for Rookie of the Year. So, who has the edge?

Dennis Chambers

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What a difference a year can make.

This time last year, the NBA was suffering from one of its most boring Rookie of the Year races seen in quite some time. Joel Embiid was finished for the season, playing just 31 games, despite putting up obscene numbers. Dario Saric was inconsistent and failed to string together a full season of competent play. Malcolm Brogdon wasn’t flashy by any means, but the second round pick was a key glue-guy for the playoff-bound Milwaukee Bucks. Eventually, that was enough to get Brogdon the nod over the two Philadelphia 76ers players.

None of that is the case this season, however, as two rookies are putting on a show for the ages and invigorating life and debate into an awards race that seemed all but locked up a month ago.

Ben Simmons or Donovan Mitchell?

It’s not a black-and-white question, and it certainly doesn’t have a black-and-white answer. But let’s attempt to clear up some of the gray area.

We’ll start with Mitchell.

Before the season, the likes of Simmons, Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum, and Dennis Smith Jr. were considered the leaders for the Rookie of the Year award. In fact, all of them were listed ahead of Mitchell at odds by Bovada. Scroll past those names, and a few others, and you would finally come across the Louisville product, with the ninth-best odds to win, at 20/1.

Following a forgettable first two weeks of the season for Mitchell, the 13th overall pick took off like a rocket, and hasn’t looked back since.

For the season, Mitchell is averaging a smooth 19.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists with a 54.4 true shooting percentage. Even more impressive, he’s doing so as the Utah Jazz’s first option.

When Gordon Hayward jumped ship for Boston, many assumed Rodney Hood would take a big leap forward offensively this season in Utah. Instead, the Jazz’s lottery pick took over so quickly and effectively that Hood now resides in Cleveland. Talk about life coming at you fast.

As Mitchell continued to pour in steady solid performances throughout this season, his candidacy for this award was always kept afloat. Even when Mitchell and the Jazz lost their star center, Rudy Gobert, to injury. In fact, without Gobert on the floor, Mitchell benefits from an ultra-green light on offense that correlates to his offensive rating spiking up to 108.9. That’s 2.3 points higher than his season average number and 6.7 points higher than when he shares the court with Gobert.

Because Mitchell has such an advanced repertoire on offense, he can keep Utah in games despite missing their defensive anchor. His individual defensive rating also jumps to 108.9 without Gobert, giving him a nearly even net rating mainly due to his ability to light up the scoreboard.

Coupled with his numbers, Mitchell has the Jazz smack dab in the middle of playoff contention. Amidst their current 11-game winning streak, Mitchell has led the team in scoring — the first rookie ever to accomplish such a feat during a stretch of that kind.

All of these statistics paint a pretty clear picture that Mitchell is without a doubt an impactful player in today’s NBA, despite being a rookie. In most other years, he’d likely run away with the Rookie of the Year award.

Unfortunately for him, and the player he’s jostling for the award, this isn’t one of those years.

Right off the bat, it’s clear offensively that Simmons doesn’t have the scoring prowess Mitchell benefits from. He’s taken just 35 shots this entire season between 15 and 24 feet on the court, making 13 of them. Simmons lives in the paint, and it’s no secret.

Despite refusing to take jump shots on most nights, with opponents very aware of his limitations, Simmons manages to average 16.5 points per game, and even more impressively, finishes his shots around the rim at a 73.5 percent clip. For reference, LeBron James wasn’t that effective inside the restricted area until his seventh year in the NBA.

Scoring isn’t what is going to win Simmons the award, though. Everything else he does on the court will. Like averaging 7.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists a night as the team’s point guard, while leading the league (not just rookies) in touches. At 21 years old, the Sixers handed the keys to the offense of a player who before this season never played point guard in his life.

For Philadelphia, that seems to be working out just fine. The Sixers are 30-25 heading into the All-Star break in large part because of the way Simmons orchestrates their offense.

Like Mitchell, though, Simmons benefits from a star big man on the block. With Embiid and Simmons on the court, the Sixers possess one of the league’s top defenses. In fact, the duo holds the lowest opponent field goal percentage in the league, at 40.9 percent.

When Embiid is off of the floor, Simmons’ impact shifts, pretty apparently too. That’s the main narrative that gives way to Mitchell placing himself so heavily in the conversation. Without his 7-foot-2 big man, Simmons’ offensive rating dips from his usual 106.5 to 100.9 (eight points lower than Mitchell without Gobert). Simmons’ defensive rating jumps a bit as well, as one would expect given his workload in the post increasing as Embiid sits. That number bumps up from 101.5 to 105.

As noted above, Mitchell’s ability to score at will keeps things close in the advanced metrics for the Jazz. Simmons doesn’t have that luxury, and it’s reflected in the numbers. But it’s key to point out that while Simmons dips below his usual numbers when Embiid is off of the floor, so does Mitchell when he misses Gobert.

Simmons’ defensive rating, with and without his big man, is still superior to Mitchell’s. Along with an array of other advanced statistics. Simmons leads Mitchell in Box Plus-Minus (3.4 to 0.8), Defensive Real Plus-Minus (1.91 to -0.33), and Real Plus-Minus Wins (6.32 to 4.23).

Those numbers account for an individual’s impact across an average of 100 possessions, taking into account the points their responsible for in reflection to their team’s success.

But if you don’t want to bored with nerdy advanced numbers, we can take it old school as well.

In NBA history just six players have finished a season averaging at least 16 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists per game while shooting 50 percent from the field: LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, and Wilt Chamberlain.

At his current pace, Simmons would become the seventh player to do so. That’s elite company.

With his triple-double Wednesday night against the Miami HEAT, in a game without Embiid that saw the Sixers come back from a 23-point halftime deficit, Simmons notched his sixth such game this season. Since 1980, only one other rookie has eclipsed that number. That was Johnson, who finished the season with seven triple-doubles. Simmons has 27 more chances to beat Johnson’s total.

Statistics are important. So are teammates. Basketball isn’t an individual sport. What Mitchell and Simmons have both been able to accomplish thus far this season cannot be understated. Their incredible performances are main reasons as to why their teams are in the playoff hunt.

It’s unclear which player will be better five years from now; honestly, it’s unclear at times which player is better right now. Mitchell can score in bunches, and his shots from beyond the arc are sexy. There’s no denying his ability.

But what Simmons is doing this season is historic and unprecedented, not only for his age or rookie status, but in general. That at the moment gives him the edge.

Dennis Chambers is an NBA writer in his first season with Basketball Insiders. Based out of Philadelphia he has previously covered NCAA basketball and high school recruiting.

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NBA

NBA Daily: Bought Out Players Faring Well With New Teams

The deadline for teams to send their unwanted players to the buyout market was March 1. Jordan Hicks takes a look at some of the key acquisitions since the deadline and how they are helping postseason pushes.

Jordan Hicks

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The buyout market seems to be gaining more and more popularity with each season. While rebuilding teams tend to forego more seasoned players in order to give their younger guys some run, veteran players often find themselves bought out or waived prior to the deadline.

Teams competing for a spot in the playoffs – so it seems – have increasingly taken advantage of this situation by signing guys that can definitely help them get enough wins. While you definitely will not find All-Stars in the pool of available players, oftentimes solid role players find themselves there due to a myriad of reasons.

It could be that their previous teams wanted to give more playing time to guys more in-line with their future plans. It could also be because their previous team was simply wanting to lose games in order to increase their draft position, which is also known as tanking. By waiving better players on your roster and keeping less talented ones, teams can essentially give themselves a better chance to lose games without totally making it look like they’re doing it on purpose.

This year had one of the stronger pools of players on the buyout/waived market as of March 1st in recent memory, so let’s take a look at some of the top players and how they’ve fared since joining their new team.

Wesley Matthews

Matthews was part of the marquee trade that sent Kristaps Porzingis to the Dallas Mavericks. He ended up with the Knicks, but after two short games, they realized they didn’t want his talent interfering with their draft position. They waived him prior to the deadline and he was picked up by the Indiana Pacers.

This has turned out to be an incredibly important acquisition for the Pacers – primarily due to the fact that they lost All-Star Victor Oladipo for the season.

Matthews brings grittiness on the defensive end and a diverse set of skills offensively. He is an above average shooter from the three-point line, averaging 38.8 percent on 6.1 attempts per game since joining Indiana. He has added much-needed scoring to the offense as well – currently at 12.5 points and 2.4 assists each night.

He’s very clearly a step below Oladipo, especially when considering what Vic brought to both ends of the floor, but the fact that the Pacers added him without having to give up any assets is pretty remarkable.

While he has yet to add any considerable value on defense, Matthews has ranked fifth on the team in offensive rating since joining them on February 7. If Oladipo was still on the roster, you could argue that they wouldn’t necessarily need Matthews. But in light of recent events, being able to add Matthews as easily as they did was certainly a win for the franchise.

Enes Kanter

Another player the Knicks decided to unload was Enes Kanter. He was sent to the player pool via buyout, and it is safe to assume that New York had to spend handsomely to send him there.

Kanter is an interesting player. He has always been able to get buckets around the rim, as well as grab rebounds, but he has always struggled defensively. This was not why the Knicks wanted to let him go, however. Tension had been growing between Kanter, the front office, and the coaching staff, as they wanted to limit his minutes in lieu of the younger players on the roster.

Enes just wanted to play, and, by being bought out and signing with the Portland Trail Blazers, he’s been able to do just that.

Since joining Portland, the team as gone 9-3. While he continues to have his struggles on defense, he is posting 10 points and 6.7 rebounds on only 18.2 minutes per night.

Since the acquisition, Meyers Leonard has seen a decreased role. Kanter has turned into the de-facto backup to starting center Jusuf Nurkic. While Kanter is a poor defender himself, Portland has enough solid defensive players in the frontcourt that they haven’t had too much of a problem hiding him on that end of the floor.

Jeremy Lin

Lin headed to the market after being bought out by the Atlanta Hawks. He was picked up by the Toronto Raptors, who have struggled to field consistent backcourt players off the bench due to injuries – which was made more difficult after dealing Delon Wright to the Grizzlies as part of the Marc Gasol trade.

In 13 games with the Raptors, Lin is averaging 8.4 points and 2.5 assists in 20.8 minutes per game. He has struggled to find any consistency with his shot, as he’s averaging just 39 percent from the field and a morbid 18.4 percent from three.

That shooting has every opportunity to increase. Lin is a 34.3 percent shooter from downtown over the course of his career.

The Raptors will need Lin to pull his shooting together as the season wraps up for a strong playoff campaign. The bench unit was a major part of their success last season and it is proving to be another key part this year. In order for Toronto to finally reach their goal of winning the Eastern Conference, they’ll need Lin to be at his best. He isn’t the only key to their success, but he’ll have a major impact on how the Raptors finish out the season.

There are still plenty of solid players on the market. Carmelo Anthony, Ben McLemore and Nick Young could provide instant offense off the bench. Greg Monroe, Marcin Gortat and Zach Randolph could help improve the frontcourt of any team in need. Whether or not teams decide they need their services, only time will tell.

While the season plays out, it will be interesting to see just what impact these players discussed – as well as those not mentioned – will have for their franchise in the postseason.

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NBA Daily: Justin Bibbs Gets First NBA Opportunity In L.A.

Justin Bibbs spoke to Basketball Insiders about joining an NBA team after going undrafted, playing in the G League, his developing skill set and more.

David Yapkowitz

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One of the best moments in the life of an aspiring pro basketball player is to receive the news that an NBA team wants to sign them.

For Justin Bibbs, that dream became a reality of his when the Los Angeles Clippers called him up to the team on a 10-day contract last week. The former Virginia Tech guard went undrafted last summer and was spending his first professional season in the G League with Maine Red Claws, the affiliate of the Boston Celtics.

This past Sunday against the Brooklyn Nets was actually his first day being around the team as they had immediately assigned him to the Agua Caliente Clippers after signing him.

“To be honest, I still don’t have words for it. It’s kind of indescribable,” Bibbs told Basketball Insiders. “I always wanted to be on this level, but now that I’m here I just trying to take in every second of it, just relax and let God do his thing.”

Bibbs had a decent showing with the Celtics in summer league, leading to him being added to their training camp roster. He was ultimately cut and joined the Maine Red Claws as an affiliate player. Each NBA team is allowed to assign up to four players to their G League affiliate, players who were in training camp and are guaranteed a G League roster spot.

Affiliate players, however, are still considered ‘free agents’ in that they can sign with any NBA team. Bibbs played in 44 games with the Red Claws and averaged 11.8 points per game, 3.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists.

At Virginia Tech, he was a knockdown outside shooter (42.4 percent) and a strong defender. He has good size for a guard at 6-foot-5 and 225-pounds. It’s those qualities that he’s hoping to bring to the Clippers should he get the chance on the court.

“I always bring energy defensively and I just play my game. On offense, I bring shooting,” Bibbs told Basketball Insiders. “But it’s whatever the coach tells me to do and basically just playing the right way.”

Although Bibbs has reached his goal of the NBA, he’s in a different situation than the rest of his Clippers teammates. They’re all secured with guaranteed contracts. Bibbs has ten days to prove himself to team brass, ten days to show he’s worth keeping around a bit longer.

“I’m happy that my play has been rewarded, that the organization believed in me enough to give me a 10-day. Its motivation for me to keep going,” Bibbs told Basketball Insiders. “I was called down from the G League team, and I’m just trying to get all the sets and plays and stuff, trying to make that adjustment. But it’s definitely a blessing.”

He’s played in three games for the Agua Caliente Clippers so far, logging 27.1 minutes per game off the bench. He’s put up 9.7 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting from the field, 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists during that stretch.

He’s yet to log any minutes for the Clippers, but he’s just thrilled to be a part of an NBA organization. Despite being undrafted, he always knew that he’d get to this level at some point.

“Yeah I did, for sure I did. I didn’t know when or how, but I always thought I would be here,” Bibbs told Basketball Insiders. “I had no idea what team, but being out in LA, I’ll take that as a blessing. But yeah I thought I would be here for sure.”

For players like Bibbs who are on 10-day contracts, nothing is guaranteed. But he’s soaking up the entire experience as long as he can. Whether the Clippers decide to retain him a little bit longer, or he moves on to another opportunity, he just wants to be able to play his game.

“My overall goal is just to actually play my game my way and not be restricted,” Bibbs told Basketball Insiders. “Kind of just play freely and right now that’s what I’ve shown, that’s what got me here. I’m just taking in the whole process, just taking it all in and getting the experience and knowledge.”

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Mock Drafts

NBA Daily: 60-Pick NBA Mock Draft – 3/19/19

With the field of teams set for the 2019 NCAA March Madness tournament, things should get noisy over the next few weeks on the NBA Draft front. Steve Kyler offers up another 60-pick Mock Draft before all the zaniness begins.

Steve Kyler

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Let the Madness begin.

The basketball world will shift its attention to college basketball’s biggest stage over the next few weeks, especially this weekend’s opening round of 64.

While the tournament doesn’t necessarily make or break a player’s draft stock, this will be the first time some notable draft prospects will face elite talent and, more importantly, the pressure of the big stage. You can check out march madness predictions 2019 here.

Expect things in the draft world to start to percolate, not just because of the magnitude of the games, but also because a lot of NBA scouts will be in the same places, which is where the draft chatter originates.

Equally, a lot of NBA teams will watch games together in the conference rooms this week, so more group discussion on players will happen inside NBA teams’ front offices, and that could lead to new preference information flowing into the NBA Draft information bubble.

Here is this week’s 60-Pick Mock Draft, based on NBA games played through 3/18/19:

Here are the first-round picks that are owed and how those picks landed where they are.

The Atlanta Hawks are to receive the Cleveland Cavaliers’ first-round pick as a result of the Kyle Korver trade in 2017, which is top-10 protected. But based on the standings, it will not be conveyed.

The Boston Celtics are to receive the Memphis Grizzlies first-round pick as a result of the three-team Jeff Green trade in 2015; the pick is top-eight protected and, based on the current standings, would not convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are to receive the Dallas Mavericks first-round pick as a result of the Luka Dončić – Trae Young swap on draft night in 2018. The pick is top-five protected and, based on the standings, would convey.

The Boston Celtics are to receive the more favorable of either the Sacramento Kings or Philadelphia 76ers first-round picks as part of the Markelle Fultz pre-draft trade in 2017. Based on the current standings, the Kings pick is the more favorable and would convey to Boston.

The Boston Celtics are to receive the LA Clippers first-round pick as a result of the Deyonta Davis draft day trade with Memphis in 2016. The Grizzlies got the pick in their Jeff Green/Lance Stephenson deal at the deadline in 2016. The pick is lottery protected and, based on the current standings, would not convey.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are to receive the Houston Rockets first-round pick as a result of the three-team deadline deal that sent out Brandon Knight and Marquese Chriss.

The Brooklyn Nets are to receive the Denver Nuggets first-round pick as a result of the Kenneth Faried – Darrell Arthur trade in July 2018. The pick is top-12 protected and, based on the current standings, would convey.

The San Antonio Spurs are to receive the Toronto Raptors first-round pick as a result of the Kawhi Leonard – DeMar DeRozan trade in July 2018. The pick is top-20 protected and, based on the current standings, would convey.

The Phoenix Suns are to receive the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as a result of the Eric Bledsoe trade in 2017. The pick has top 3 and 17-30 protections, designed to yield a lottery-level pick to Phoenix. Based on the current standings this pick would not convey. If the debt is not settled this year, the pick in 2020 would be top-7 protected.

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