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The X-Factors: Miami

The Miami HEAT have been one of the East’s best teams this season, but certain factors can dictate whether they go deep in the playoffs or find themselves in a first-round exit. Matt John examines.

Matt John

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Over the past two weeks, Basketball Insiders has taken a look at the X-Factors that can shape the fate of those who will be in the playoff running when the NBA returns with its 22-team format. So far, we’ve taken a look at teams that are:

1. On the outside looking in: New Orleans and Portland
2. Basically in a gap year: Brooklyn
3. Getting their first taste of playoff action with their new squad: Memphis and Dallas
4. A gritty opponent that no one wants to face: Indiana and Oklahoma City
5. Possibly the most unpredictable playoff team ever: Houston

Today, we’re looking at the boys down in South Beach — the Miami HEAT.

With Jimmy Butler onboard — Miami’s best acquisition since LeBron James — it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the team’s had its best season since 2016. What is a surprise this season is that the results go beyond just what Jimmy Butler has done.

Miami’s success primarily starts with Butler, yes, but he’s not leading a bunch of scrubs to the playoffs. Far from it, in fact. Miami has gotten better as a whole because roles occupied by previous alumni have basically been upgraded with new faces.

  • Defensive Enforcer/Board-Getter: Previously occupied by Hassan Whiteside and now dominated by Bam Adebayo, and that only partially covers how magnificent Bam has been this year.
  • Three-Point Specialist: Previously occupied by Wayne Ellington and now taken over by sophomore surprise Duncan Robinson.
  • Designated Complementary Scorers: Previously occupied by Dion Waiters and Dwyane Wade and now replaced with younger, more reliable shooters like Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn.

Lest we forget, Goran Dragic has been awesome in his new role as the sixth man, Derrick Jones Jr. has continued to develop nicely, and because of the hiatus, Miami now has more time to integrate Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder. The HEAT are really good, and they could potentially get better, but not enough to be considered “great.”

The general consensus on them is that as impressive as they’ve been — in the sense that the team surrounding Butler has been noticeably better than we anticipated — they still need another elite player or two before they move up high enough to reach “contender” status. Could they prove those naysayers wrong with a fruitful playoff run? It depends on a few things.

First, let’s talk about their two top dogs, starting with Butler. This hasn’t been his best season shooting the three-ball. Butler’s never been a three-point marksman — he hasn’t relied on it nearly as much as other modern-day All-Star wings do — but as a career 33 percent shooter from downtown, seeing him shoot so badly from three — 24.8 percent this season — that he basically abandoned it all together is astounding.

Then, there’s Adebayo. Adebayo has been one of the best all-around bigs in the league. He hasn’t just been a menace on defense and on the boards. He’s also been one of the league’s best passing bigs as well. He can pretty much do everything on the court right now except one thing — shoot threes. In his defense, nobody in Miami is asking him to do that… yet.

Amazingly, Miami is tied for first in three-point shooting in spite of Butler’s woes and Adebayo’s lack of contribution in that department, shooting at a 38 percent clip as a group. It’s no doubt played a factor into why they have the sixth-best offensive rating at 112.7 points per 100 possessions — Robinson, Crowder, Herro, Dragic, Nunn, Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard all shoot between 36 to almost 45 percent from three. In the modern NBA, it’s honestly pretty impressive that the HEAT still have a top-10 offense in the league despite their two best players not being a floor-stretchers.

The real question is, can a team with a makeup like that go deep in the playoffs? We all know that the playoffs are a different game. Opponents will look to exploit weaknesses as frequently as possible. Having as much shooting as possible is a strong advantage. In Miami’s case, teams are going to leave as much space for Butler and Adebayo as possible. They’ll blanket their three-point shooters as best they can to keep the offense from humming. Butler is a playoff proven star but not a superstar, and Adebayo is a playoff rookie. Erik Spoelstra’s got a proven track record, but as good as this team is, they don’t have the overwhelming talent that the Heatles did back in the early 2010s, so his work will be cut out for him.

It will also depend on who Spoelstra trusts out there, which is another X-Factor. Miami has 11 players on it roster right now worthy of playing in the playoff rotation — Butler, Adebayo, Dragic, Nunn, Robinson, Herro, Crowder, Iguodala, Jones, Olynyk, Leonard — but another proven fact about the playoffs is rotations always shorten. Teams go with fewer guys than they normally do in the regular season as a means to tie up loose ends. The ones that go deeper in their rotation usually regret it. Spo definitely has some decisions to make there.

Miami is tied for the 11th-best defensive rating in the league, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions, which honestly is far from bad. Adebayo and Butler have a lot to do with why their efficiency on that end isn’t too far behind from their offense, but they haven’t had the most solid support behind them in the former department. Robinson, Herro and Nunn have all given Miami a layer they didn’t know they needed, but none of them are defensive stalwarts. That probably went into the decision-making process when they traded for Iguodala and Crowder.

Whether they did or didn’t, there’s no guarantee that those two are better options than Miami’s youthful crop of shooters. They definitely bring more versatility, IQ and toughness to the defensive end and they have a lot more playoff games under their belt, but how much Iggy has left in the tank is up in the air while Crowder is wildly inconsistent on the offensive end. The HEAT will have to do a lot of mixing and matching to do. Eight games might not be enough time to do it.

Finally, the last X-Factor is who Miami plays in the postseason. Playoffs always boil down to matchups. We’ve seen that year-to-year. The 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks were a good enough team to beat just about anybody… except for the eighth-seeded Golden State Warriors, who exploited every single advantage in their favor. That series upset overshadowed that Dirk Nowitzki and Co. were every bit as good as every contender in the league. They were just given the worst hand possible. Matchups can turn the tide no matter what seed you are.

These eight regular-season games can definitely have huge implications in Miami’s fate when they enter the playoffs. Adebayo’s elite defense against just about any frontcourt player along with Butler’s ability to get buckets would make life hell for Philadelphia, who Miami beat 3-1 in the season series. At the same time, Miami’s lack of two-way players could definitely be run over by Boston, who won their season series 2-0. Miami’s collection of talent gives them the luxury of adaptability compared to most teams, but that may not matter if the matchups aren’t in their favor.

How the playoffs shape up can have an impact on the HEAT in the long-term. With the moves they’ve made, they’ll have cap flexibility to make a run at a star free agent. You know how we said they are one or two more elite players away from being at the top? Well, a particular Greek superstar will be on the market in two years. If all goes right, he may be the answer to their prayers.

The odds of Miami winning a title are a longshot this season, but seeing where the bar was set this season, that may not have been the upfront goal to begin with. The goal was to put Miami back on the map this season, and no matter what happens, that’s exactly what the HEAT did.

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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NBA Daily: Examining Michael Porter Jr.’s Ascension

Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging over 25 points per game and looks like a future All-NBA player. Bobby Krivitsky examines Porter’s ascent and the questions that come with it.

Bobby Krivitsky

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Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to new heights.

In the wake of Murray’s ACL tear in mid-April, Porter’s playing time has gone from 30.6 minutes per contest to 35.7, while his shots per game have risen from 12.6 per game to 16.5. The increased responsibility has fueled his ascent. He’s knocking down 56.3 percent of those attempts. He’s taking 8.2 threes per game and making a blistering 50 percent of them. As a result, Porter’s gone from averaging 17.5 points per game to 25.1. He’s also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and blocking almost one shot per contest.

At the time of Murray’s injury, the Denver Nuggets were in fourth place in the Western Conference. They remain there now, 9-4 in his absence, and they boast the eighth-highest net rating in the NBA.

The only way for the Nuggets to fall from fourth would be if they lost their four remaining games and the Dallas Mavericks won their final five contests because the Mavericks have the tiebreaker since they won the season series. On the more realistic end of the spectrum, Denver sits just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Clippers, who occupy the third seed in the West. The Nuggets won their season series against the Clippers, meaning they’d finish in third if the two teams ended the regular season with the same record.

There’s a bevy of questions surrounding Porter’s recent play that need to be asked but cannot get answered at the moment. That starts with whether this is anything more than a hot streak. While it’s impossible to say definitively, it’s reasonable to believe Porter can consistently and efficiently produce about 25 points per game. He was the second-ranked high school prospect in 2017 and entered his freshman year at Missouri firmly in the mix for the top pick in the 2018 NBA draft. That was thanks in large part to his offensive prowess as a 6-10 wing with a smooth shot that’s nearly impossible to block because of the elevation he gets when he shoots. 

A back injury cost him all but 53 minutes of his collegiate career and caused him to fall to the 14th pick in the draft. He ended up in an ideal landing spot, going to a well-run organization that’s also well aware of its barren track record luring star players looking to change teams, making it vital for the Nuggets to hit on their draft picks. 

Porter’s first year in the NBA was exclusively dedicated to the rehab process and doing everything possible to ensure he can have a long, healthy and productive career. Last season, finally getting a chance to play, he showed off the tantalizing talent that made him a top prospect but only took seven shots per game while trying to fit in alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant.

More experience, including battling against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, an offseason, albeit a truncated one, to prepare for a more substantial role with Grant joining the Detroit Pistons and Millsap turning 36 this year, helped propel Porter. 

But for the Nuggets, before Murray’s injury, the perception was that even though they weren’t the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, they were a legitimate title contender. How far can they go if Porter’s consistently contributing about 25 points and over six rebounds per game while effectively playing the role of a second star alongside Jokic? 

It seems fair to cross Denver off the list of title contenders. But, if Porter continues to capably play the role of a second star alongside Jokic when doing so becomes more challenging in the postseason, the Nuggets can advance past a team like the Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers. And at a minimum, they’d have the ability to make life difficult for whoever they had to face in the second round of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the timing of Murray’s ACL tear, which happened in mid-April, means there’s a legitimate possibility he misses all of next season. Denver’s increased reliance on Porter is already allowing a young player with All-NBA potential to take on a role that’s closer to the one he’s assumed his whole life before making it to the sport’s highest level. If the Nuggets are counting on him to be the second-best player on a highly competitive team in the Western Conference next season, it’ll be fascinating to see what heights he reaches and how far they’re able to go as a team.

Theoretically, Porter’s growth could make it difficult for Denver to reacclimate Murray. But given Jokic’s unselfish style of play, there’s room for both of them to be satisfied by the volume of shots they’re getting. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have to wait, potentially another season, but Jokic is 26-years-old, Murray 24, Porter 22. When Denver has their Big Three back together, they could be far more potent while still being able to enjoy a lengthy run as legitimate title contenders.

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NBA Daily: D’Angelo Russell Back on Track

D’Angelo Russell lost much of the 2020-21 season to injury. Drew Maresca explains why his return will surprise people around the league.

Drew Maresca

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D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves last February, just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the entire season. But we’ve yet to see what Russell can really do in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves acquired Russell in late February in exchange for a future first-round pick – which transitions this season if they pick later than third – a 2021 second-round pick and Andrew Wiggins.

Sidenote: For those keeping score at home, the Timberwolves currently have the third-worst record in the league with five games remaining. It would behoove Minnesota to lose as many of their remaining games as possible to keep their 2021 pick. If the pick does not transition this season, it becomes unrestricted in 2020.

Trying to turn an owed pick into an unprotected future first is usually the wrong move; but in this instance, it’s better to keep the high first-rounder this year with an understanding that your 2022 pick will probably fall in or around the middle of the lottery.

The thinking around the deal was that Minnesota could qualify for the playoffs as soon as this season by swapping Wiggins’ contract for a young, talented lead guard in Russell. It has not played out as planned.

COVID resulted in a play stoppage shortly after the deal, robbing Russell of the opportunity to ramp up with his new team. When the NBA returned to finish the 2019-20 season, the Timberwolves failed to qualify for bubble play – and considering the US was still battling a global pandemic, Russell couldn’t easily practice with his new teammates and/or coaches.

The 2020-21 season began weirdly, too. The NBA proceeded with an abbreviated training camp and preseason. And while this impacted all teams, Russell was additionally hindered by the decision.

Ready or not, the season began. In 2020-21, Russell is averaging a near-career low in minutes per game (28.2) across just 36 games. He’s tallying 19.1 points per game on 43.6% shooting and a career-best 38.8% on three-point attempts. He’s also he’s posting a near career-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7 to 2.8).

Despite Russell’s contributions, the Timberwolves have failed to meet expectations. Far from the playoff squad they hoped to be, Minnesota is in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft. So what has gone wrong in Minneapolis?

Russell’s setbacks are fairly obvious. In addition to the lack of preparation with his teammates and coaches, Russell was diagnosed with a “loose body” in his knee, requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in February. As a result, he missed 27 consecutive games. Russell returned on April 5, but head coach Chris Finch revealed that he’d been on a minutes restriction until just recently.

Minnesota is clearly being cautious with Russell. Upon closer review, Russell has been restricted to under 30 minutes per game in all of his first 10 games back. Since then, Russell is averaging 31 minutes per game including an encouraging 37 minutes on May 5 in a four-point loss to Memphis.

Since returning from knee surgery, Russell is averaging 27 minutes per game across 16 games. Despite starting 19 of the team’s first 20 games, he hadn’t started in any game since returning – until Wednesday.

On the whole, Russell’s impact is about the same as it was prior to the injury, which should be encouraging to Timberwolves’ fans. He’s scoring slightly less (18.8 points since returning vs. 19.3 prior), shooting better from the field (44.9% since returning vs 42.6%% prior) and has been just slightly worse from three-point range (37.4% since vs. 39.9 prior). He’s dishing out more assists per game (6.5 since vs. 5.1 prior), too, and he posted three double-digit assist games in his last five contents – a feat achieved only once all season prior to his last five games.

Despite playing more and dropping more dimes, there’s still room to improve. Looking back to his career-bests, Russell averaged 23.1 points per game in 2019-20 in 33 games with Golden State (23.6) and 12 games with Minnesota (21.7).

But his most impactful season came in 2018-19 with the Brooklyn Nets. That season, Russell averaged 21.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, leading the Nets to the playoffs and earning his first trip to the All-Star game. He looked incredibly comfortable, playing with supreme confidence and flashing the ability to lead a playoff team.

At his best, Russell is a dynamic playmaker. The beauty of Russell is that he can also play off the ball. He has a quick release on his jumper and impressive range. His game is not predicated on athleticism, meaning he should stay at his peak for longer than guys like De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant.

And while he’s been in the league for what feels like ever (six seasons), Russell just turned 25 approximately two months ago. Granted, comparing anyone to Steph Curry is unwise, but Curry wasn’t Steph Curry yet at 25. Former MVP Steve Nash hadn’t yet averaged double-digits (points) at 25. Twenty-five is also an inflection point for Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. And the list goes on.

To be fair, Russell was drafted at 19 so he’s more acclimated to the league at this age than most, but his game will continue expanding nonetheless. He’ll develop trickier moves, become stronger and grow his shooting range. And a good deal of that growth should be evident as soon as next season since he’ll be fully healed from knee surgery and have a full offseason and training camp to finally work with teammates and coaches.

So while Minnesota’s 2020-21 season was incredibly bleak, their future is quite bright – and much of it has to do with the presence of Russell.

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NBA AM: Is This It for Indiana?

Following their major drop-off, Matt John explains why the Pacers trying to get back to where they were may not be the best decision.

Matt John

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Remember when, following the maligned trade of Paul George, the sky was the limit for the Indiana Pacers? The 2017-18 Pacers were one of the best stories in the NBA that season because they made their opponents work for their victories, and they put on a spectacle every night.

It’s hard to believe that all transpired three whole years ago. When Cleveland eliminated Indiana in a very tight first-round series, I asked if having the exciting season that they did – when many thought it would turn out the opposite – was going to benefit them in the long run. Three years later, this happens.

We were getting plenty of smoke about the Pacers’ drama behind-the-scenes beforehand, and now, we have seen the fire firsthand. More and more reports indicate that the crap has hit the fan. Indiana has seemingly already had enough of Nate Bjorkgren in only his first year as his coach. When you see the results they’ve had this season compared to the last three, it’s not hard to see why.

The Pacers have routinely found themselves in the 4-5 playoff matchup for the last three years. Sadly, despite their fight – and, to be fair, they had pretty awful injury luck the past two postseasons – they haven’t been able to get over the hump in the first round. They may not have been in the elite tier, but they weren’t slouches either. So, seeing them not only fail to take the next step but look more and more likely for the play-in is as discouraging as it gets. Especially after they started the season 6-2.

If these reports about the tensions between the players and Bjorkgren are real, then this has already become a lost season for the Pacers. It’s too late in the season to make any major personnel changes. At this point, their best route is just to cut their losses and wait until this summer to think over what the next move is.

In that case, let’s take a deep breath. This has been a weird season for everyone. Every aspect minus the playoffs has been shorter than usual since last October. Everything was shortened from the offseason to the regular season. Oh, and COVID-19 has played a role as the season has turned out, although COVID-19 has probably been the least of Indy’s problems. Let’s think about what next season would look like for Indiana.

TJ Warren comes back with a clean bill of health. Caris Levert gets more acquainted with the team and how they run. Who knows? Maybe they finally resolve the Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis situation once and for all. A new coach can come aboard to steady the ship, and it already looks like they have an idea for who that’s going to be

Should they run it back, there’s a solid chance they can get back to where they were before. But that’s sort of the problem to begin with. Even if this recent Pacers’ season turns out to be just a negative outlier, their ceiling isn’t all too high anyway. A team that consists of Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Caris Levert as their core four is a solid playoff team. Having Turner, Doug McDermott, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb, and the Holiday brothers rounds out a solid playoff team. Anyone who takes a good look at this roster knows that this roster is a good one. It’s not great though.

Just to be clear, Indiana has plenty of ingredients for a championship team. They just don’t have the main one: The franchise player. Once upon a time, it looked like that may have been Oladipo, but a cruel twist of fate took that all away. This isn’t a shot at any of the quality players they have on their roster, but think of it this way.

For the next couple of years, they’re going to go up against Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. All of whom are on the same team. For potentially even longer, they’ll be going up against the likes of Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum. With the roster they have, they could make a series interesting against any one of those teams. However, it’s a rule of thumb in the NBA that the team with the best player usually wins the series. Not to mention, they’d have to beat most of the teams those players play for to go on a substantial playoff run. That’s a pretty tall order.

There’s no joy in talking about the Pacers like this because they have built this overachieving underdog from nothing more than shrewd executive work. They turned a disgruntled and expiring Paul George into Oladipo and Sabonis. Both of whom have since become two-time all-stars (and counting). They then managed to turn an expiring and hobbled Oladipo – who had no plans to return to Indiana – into the electric Levert. They also pretty much stole Brogdon and Warren away while paying very little for either of them.

That is fantastic work. The only hangup is that, as of now, it just doesn’t seem like it will be enough. But, doubt and skepticism are things Indiana’s had thrown their way consistently since 2017. Many thought their approach to trading Paul George would blow up in their face, and since then, they’ve done everything in their power to make everyone eat their words.

Kevin Pritchard’s got his work cut out for him this summer. This season will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than performance ruined by both the wrong coaching hire and an unusual season that produced negatively skewed results. But at this point, Pritchard’s upcoming course of action this summer shouldn’t be about getting his team back to where they were, but deciding whether he can get them a step or two further than that by adding more to what they have or starting over completely.

Indiana’s had a rough go of it in this COVID-shortened season, but their disappointing play may have little to no bearing on where they go from here.

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