With such a busy NBA offseason and basketball to watch during the Olympics, it sort of feels crazy that preseason games have already started and the 2016-17 campaign is weeks away. Beyond the reported $3.58 billion in guaranteed contracts that were doled out this summer or the Kevin Durant decision that resulted in bit of a ripple effect taking place around the league as teams scrambled to adjust, there were also organizations that decided to essentially press the proverbial “reset” button in order to take things in entirely new directions. The Lakers, Spurs and Timberwolves each saw longtime franchise legends walk away and are now adjusting to life with shifting responsibilities or new players stepping into roles of leadership – especially with San Antonio and L.A. Teams like the HEAT, Bulls, Hawks and Rockets each return with significant shifts to their core groups, not to mention the 12 teams with new head coaches since the start of last season. Needless to say, there are a ton of great storylines to pay attention to throughout the league, but here are a few to specifically keep an eye on as we head into the season:
The eventual fit in Oakland
Although much of the focus was on the fact that a team coming off a 73-9 season essentially swapped a role player (Harrison Barnes) for perhaps one of the game’s all-time scorers, we should probably take a moment to also acknowledge that a definite transition period should be expected after the Warriors also lost Andrew Bogut, Marreese Speights and Leandro Barbosa. Pairing Durant alongside Draymond Green is about as versatile a forward combo as we’ve seen since the 1980s Celtics, and they are about to put forth one of the most potent offensive units we’ve ever seen; the Stephen Curry/Durant/Klay Thompson trio might actually approach 1,000 threes between them. But they could also have to undergo adjustments to their defensive approach.
Can Zaza Pachulia replace what Bogut brought this team on the defensive end? Pachulia may look more productive on paper, but the Warriors will need him to be the rim-protecting presence Bogut was when healthy over the last four seasons. Guys like David West, James McAdoo and perhaps Kevon Looney can replace whatever was lost with Speights leaving town, but Bogut has been the team’s main source of rim protection for some time now, so Pachulia’s effectiveness on the defensive end could be a bigger deal than some may be considering.
Which Eastern Conference team emerges as Cleveland’s greatest competition?
The Toronto Raptors have held that position over the past couple seasons, but could face steep competition from the Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and a few other dark horses. Teams like the New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets have each undergone significant changes and remain as “wild cards” depending upon how well the parts wind up fitting and relative team health along the way.
Paul George looked phenomenal during his time with Team USA and should hit the ground running, equipped with an improved Pacers roster that has a nice blend of talented youth alongside veterans who can also still contribute. The Celtics added Al Horford, retained some key guys in Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko and drafted another athletic (yet raw) swingman in Jaylen Brown who appears to fit the mold of type of physical player Boston prefers.
The Knicks added a ton of vets to play alongside Carmelo Anthony, but the actual story for the present and future in New York will be the continued development of Kristaps Porzingis. Early predictions and expectations of a return to the Conference Finals discussion have since tempered, but it will at least be fun to see the Knicks playing some competitive ball as Porzingis’ game continues to unfold.
The Hawks are another team that underwent significant roster turnover and enter the year with a bit of an unknown feeling that is strangely refreshing. Will Dwight Howard jell with newly promoted Dennis Schröder, as the 23-year-old adjusts to the added responsibility of leading the team? Time will tell whether the new desire to shoot more jumpers will pan out for Howard, but the hope would be returning to a familiar hometown market will be just what the 30-year-old center needs to be at his best.
The Raptors still feature the All-Star duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but also return with a bit of depth with rookie big man Jakob Poeltl, free agent Jared Sullinger and perhaps even an energy guy in Pascal Siakam to keep an eye on. The rate at which the young guys develop could determine the depth of roster options, but a real key to Toronto’s chances this year could be whether Sullinger is finally able to put it all together on the court. He looks a bit better than he did at times in Boston from a physical standpoint, but the Raptors could really be in business if the 24-year-old Ohio State product can remain locked in this season.
Will the Clippers take the next step?
This could be the year the Clippers finally take the next step in the playoffs. The roster is as balanced as it’s ever been in Doc Rivers’ tenure as head coach and de facto front office head, and the clock is ticking on the contracts of multiple core pieces – namely Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Whether Coach Rivers actually believes there is “no gap” between the Clippers and the top teams in the league, this could be his best chance to prove that notion.
The Spurs will likely be just as formidable even in transition, but the Clippers will also have teams like the Trail Blazers, Grizzlies and Jazz each trying to take steps forward in competition for a top seed. Both OKC and Houston could be considered wild cards. Russell Westbrook will undoubtedly play out of his mind in the new role as unquestioned leader and the pairing alongside Victor Oladipo should be absolutely electric. There also seems to be a renewed sense of confidence with the roster shift and the hiring of head coach Mike D’Antoni in Houston. We saw what type of success a happy James Harden could have just a couple seasons back when he wound up second in the MVP race to Steph Curry. Plus, Harden, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon (health permitting) et al. are about to make a ton of threes in that D’Antoni offense this season.
Shifting back to Los Angeles, the main guys are still going to do what’s expected from them, although Griffin could have even more motivation to prove himself in his return. Where taking chances on guys like Josh Smith and Lance Stephenson led to issues last season, the front office went out and added some quality pieces to help balance out some of the workload throughout the season. Whether it ultimately winds up being a “now or never” situation or owner Steve Ballmer makes good on his reported vow to do whatever it takes to keep Griffin and Paul in Los Angeles, while there will be some serious competition, the Clippers appear to be in the prime position to finally live up to the “dark horse” title some have been so eager to give them over the past few years.
How will the rookies and youth movements around the league fare?
Aside from the terrible news Sixers fans recently received on the summer’s #1 pick Ben Simmons, this is also the best time of the year to remind yourselves of where each rookie wound up landing. Individual expectations aside, Minnesota leads what could be as many as a dozen current youth movements throughout the league that should each be fun to watch develop. Karl-Anthony Towns had a historically good rookie season and appears to already have a trajectory of some of the better bigs of late. Having seen Coach Tom Thibodeau take over and help galvanize a young group in Chicago within the last decade, the growing sense of optimism surrounding this team makes sense when you consider this group could wind up proving to have a considerable amount of talent.
The Lakers and Suns each have really interesting cores as well, as each organization heads into the year with multiple young pieces to be excited about. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker could wind up being one of the more exciting backcourts in the conference and Phoenix also brought in two promising bigs in Dragan Bender (versatile, can shoot and defend) and Marquese Chriss (one of the more athletic bigs in the draft) to develop alongside them. Tyler Ulis may have a bunch of players ahead of him on the depth chart heading in, but don’t be shocked to see him work himself into the rotation as well.
The Lakers are in one of the more unique positions of any team as they not only said goodbye to a franchise legend and the team’s leader last spring, but they also changed the head coach and overall basketball philosophy with the hire of Luke Walton and staff and now find themselves in a process of essentially rebranding with a bevy of talented, young players with no discernible leader for the first time in 20 years. They did a solid job of adding veteran presences both in the locker room and on Walton’s bench in order to assist with the transition, but it actually appears as though the franchise is fully prepared to allow this core group to learn and grow together in the same organic nature as they did following Magic Johnson’s initial departure from the game about 25 years ago. For longtime fans, while the uncertainty isn’t something they are accustomed to, there also has to be a certain level of excitement based directly upon the expectation and splendor of the unknown.
Still just 23 years old, Anthony Davis is also the leader of an intriguing team conversion in year two under Coach Alvin Gentry in New Orleans. The Pelicans have some veterans on that roster, but the principle characters are still relatively young. Could this be the roster that Lance Stephenson finally recaptures what worked so well for him for a time in Indiana? Adding a scorer like Buddy Hield into the mix will certainly help, but once again Stephenson is in a position where he could be a real difference maker if he winds up making the roster.
Don’t forget about those young groups in Denver, Orlando and Milwaukee as well, as each squad should give fans plenty to be excited over as we head into the season.
Again, these are just a few of the storylines to look for as there are literally dozens of great roster battles, teams attempting to transition from being “pretenders” to actual “contenders” and promising youth movements across the league. Regardless of whether the ultimate outcome is yet another epic (rubber match) showdown between the Cavs and Warriors, 2016-17 is already shaping up to be another one for the ages.
NBA Daily: Nothing’s Promised, Not Even For The Warriors
The Warriors are wounded, and with Chris Paul, the Rockets may be equipped to take advantage.
The Warriors are wounded, and for those that thought their waltzing into a four consecutive NBA Finals was a given, the Houston Rockets may have other ideas. Especially when one considers that the beloved Dubs are trying to buck history.
Steph Curry has ankle problems, Klay has a fractured thumb and Kevin Durant—the most recent of the team’s lynchpins to find himself on the disabled list—has a rib injury.
Sure, the Dubs might shake off their injuries and find themselves at or near 100 percent once the playoffs begin, but seldom do teams in the NBA get healthier as the year progresses.
Winning in the NBA is difficult. In order to take all the marbles, teams need a bunch of different ingredients, chief among them are good fortune and health. And in many ways, the two are entwined.
Simply put: the human body isn’t built to play as often and as hard as NBA players do. Those that we recognize as being among the greatest ever—Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James among them—had one thing in common. They were all exceptionally durable.
Over the years, we’ve seen attrition and fragility cost the likes of Anfernee Hardaway, Yao Ming and Derrick Rose what seemed to be careers full of accolades and accomplishments. And the simple truth is that you never know which player, players or teams will be next to be undercut by injuries and progressive fatigue.
Just to keep things in perspective, the Warriors are attempting to become just the fifth team since 1970 to win at least three NBA championships in a four-year span.
The Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA Finals in 1985, 1987 and 1988 before Michael Jordan and his Chicago Bulls completed their three-peat from 1991-93. The Bulls would again do the same between 1996 and 1998, and Shaquille O’Neal and his Los Angeles Lakers accomplished the same from 2000 to 2002.
There are reasons why so few teams have been able to win as frequently as the Lakers and Bulls have, and health is certainly one of them. That’s especially interesting to note considering the fact that the Warriors may have been champions in 2016 had they had their team at full strength. Mind you, both Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala were severely limited in their abilities, while Andrew Bogut missed the fateful and decisive Game 6 and Game 7 of those Finals with injuries to his left leg.
At the end of the day, injuries are a part of the game. The best teams are often able to overcome them, while the luckiest teams often don’t have to deal with them. To this point, the Warriors have been both the best and incredibly lucky, but at a certain point, the sheer volume of basketball games is likely to have an adverse effect on at least a few members of the team.
We may be seeing that now.
En route to winning the 2015 NBA Finals, the Warriors turned in a playoff record of 16-5. In 2016, they were 15-9 and in 2017, they were 16-1. In total, the 62 playoff games would have worn a bit of tread off of their collective tires, just as their 73-9 regular season record may have. In becoming a historically great team, the Warriors have expending the energy necessary of a team wishing to remain a contender, and that’s not easy.
As an aside, those that understand the difficulty in competing at a high level every single night are the ones who rightfully give LeBron James the respect he’s due for even having the opportunity to play into June eight consecutive years. Win or lose, in terms of consistent effort and constant production, James has shown as things we’ve never seen before.
Today, it’s fair to wonder whether the Warriors have that same capability.
We’ll find out in short order.
* * * * * *
As the Houston Rockets appear headed toward ending the Warriors’ regular season reign atop the Western Conference, there’s something awfully coincidental about the fact that the team seems to have taken the next step after the addition of Chris Paul.
Paul knows a thing or two about attrition and how unlucky bouts with injuries at inopportune times can cost a team everything. As much as anything else, it probably has something to do with why Paul continues to believe in the ability of the Rockets to achieve immortality.
On the first night of the regular season, mind you, in one horrific moment, Gordon Hayward and the Boston Celtics reminded us that on any given play, the outlook of an entire season—and perhaps, even a career—can change.
A twisted knee here, a sprained ankle there, and who knows?
With just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Warriors—the team that everyone knew would win the Western Conference again this season—has some concerns. Their primary weapons are hurting, their chances of securing home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs are all but nil and their road to the Finals may end up being more difficult than they could have possibly imagined.
If the season ended today and the seeds held, the Warriors would draw the San Antonio Spurs in the first round and the Portland Trail Blazers in the second round before squaring off against the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals.
Of all teams, the Spurs are probably the last team the Warriors would want to see in the playoffs, much less the first round. While the outcome of that series would be determined by the health of Kawhi Leonard, there’s no doubt that Gregg Popovich would at least be able to effectively game plan for Golden State.
While the Blazers might not provide incredible resistance to the Warriors, the Oklahoma City Thunder will enter play on March 18 just two games behind the Blazers for the third seed out West. With the two teams squaring off against one another on March 25, it’s possible for Russell Westbrook and his crew having the opportunity to square off against the Dubs in the playoffs.
For Golden State, their path to the Finals having to go through San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Houston would absolutely be a worst case scenario. The only thing that could make it even more terrible for Steve Kerr would be having to do it with a platoon that was less than 100 percent.
Funny. In yet another season where everyone thought that it was the Warriors and everyone else, there are quite a few questions facing the defending champs heading into the final few weeks of the regular season.
Indeed, the Warriors are wounded. And whether they can be nursed back up to full strength is perhaps the most interesting thing to watch as the calendar turns to April and playoff basketball draws nearer.
NBA Daily: The Golden State Warriors Need to Enter Rest Mode
With a bevy of injuries to their stars, the Golden State Warriors should rest up the remainder of the regular season to avoid any playoff letdowns.
After a three-year-long run of dominating the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are showing some cracks in their armor.
Granted, those cracks aren’t a result of a botched system or poor play, but rather the injury bug biting the team in full force as they come down the regular season stretch.
First, it was Steph Curry and the ankle that’s bothered him all season — and for most of his career — when he tweaked it yet again on March 8 against the San Antonio Spurs. Golden State announced he would miss at least four games. Then it was Klay Thompson, who fractured his thumb three days later against the Minnesota Timberwolves — he’ll miss at least two weeks.
Now it’s Kevin Durant. Last year’s Finals MVP suffered an incomplete rib cartilage fracture and was ruled out of Friday’s game against the Sacramento Kings. Durant is expected to be sidelined for at least two weeks. The Warriors would go on to lose that contest 95-93.
In about two weeks time, the Warriors went from having one of the most formidable offenses and scoring trios in the entire league, to having Quinn Cook and Nick Young logging starter minutes.
Luckily for the Warriors, they’ve built up a big enough lead in the standings to achieve a 52-17 record, good for second place in the Western Conference. But the issue for the remainder of the season now becomes how healthy will the Warriors be come playoff time?
Curry and Durant have injury histories. Curry particularly has been bothered by this ankle since he entered the league. Without either of them, the Warriors — while still incredibly talented — will be on a completely even playing field with the Houston Rockets, and possibly other teams in the gauntlet that will be the Western Conference playoffs.
The bigger issue on top of the pending injury concerns becomes whether the Warriors should just pack it in for the rest of the regular season, and regroup for another expected title run.
Steve Kerr doesn’t seem to be thinking that way, however.
“All these injuries seem to be temporary,” Kerr told reporters. “A couple weeks, a week, two weeks – whatever. We’re in good shape. We’ve just got to survive this next slate of games and hopefully, start getting guys back and get rolling again for the playoffs.”
That’s true. None of the aforementioned injuries seem to be anything more serious than a few weeks of rest and relaxation. But that’s assuming the best case scenario for these players.
Should we assume that the Warriors are without their scoring trio for the next couple of weeks as their health updates have indicated, that would put their return roughly around April 1. At that time, Golden State would have six games remaining on their schedule. Four coming against playoff teams (Oklahoma City, Indiana, New Orleans, and Utah) with the other two games against Phoenix.
After missing the last few weeks on the court, with injuries that most likely won’t be at 100 percent, tossing their most valuable contributors back into the fray against a slate of playoff teams probably isn’t the smartest idea.
At this point, the Warriors postseason position is locked up. They likely won’t take the top seed away from Houston, and their lead is big enough to keep their second seed intact regardless of who’s on the court. The only thing left now is the determining who Golden State will play in the first round. With the revolving carousel that is the playoff standings out West, that’s anybody’s guess right now.
The only thing that’s certain is whichever team coming into Oracle Arena for that first round will be battle tested and talented based off of the dogfight they had to survive just to make the playoffs. The last thing the Warriors need to be is a banged up in a postseason with their first opponent smelling blood in the water.
In all likelihood, the Warriors — should everything go according to plan — will play the Houston Rockets for a chance to return to their fourth straight NBA Finals. Only this time, a potential Game 7 won’t be at Oracle Arena. It will be in downtown Houston, at the Toyota Center.
An advantage as big as the Warriors’ homecourt can never be understated. Operating in a do-or-die situation away from home will be newfound territory for this bunch. Regardless of talent or team success, at that point, it’s anybody’s game.
It won’t be easy for the Golden State Warriors as they try to extend their dynasty’s reign. This might be their most difficult year yet.
Durant, in his own words, can’t even laugh right now without feeling pain. The league’s only unanimous MVP is operating on one and a half ankles, and the team’s second Splash Brother has an injury on his shooting hand.
Resting up the team’s stars should be the team’s top priority right now, at risk of entering the postseason hobbled. Track record means nothing if the Warriors don’t have their full arsenal at disposal when the games matter most.
Hey, a 16-seed finally won a first-round game in the NCAA Tournament. Anything is possible on a basketball court, and the Warriors should do everything possible to ensure they’re not the next major upset candidate in line.
Fixing The Detroit Pistons
David Yapkowitz looks at how the fading Pistons can turn things around moving forward.
We wrap this week up with another installment of our “Fixing” series here at Basketball Insiders. The next team up is the Detroit Pistons.
The Pistons came into this season with playoff aspirations after a disappointing 2016-17 campaign that saw them regress instead of building on their playoff appearance the season before. To begin the season, they looked like they were on their way to accomplishing that objective. Then Reggie Jackson got hurt and the season began spiraling out of control.
They tried to inject some life into the team by trading for Blake Griffin, but it hasn’t worked out as expected. The Pistons have gone 8-12 since acquiring Griffin and the postseason looks like a pipe dream at this point.
What Is Working
Not a whole lot. Despite trading for a superstar player, the Pistons have tumbled down to the point where playoffs are looking extremely unlikely.
If there’s one thing that’s a welcome sight, it’s the bounce back of Andre Drummond. After being named to his first All-Star team in 2015-16, Drummond had a bit of a let down the following season. This season, he was once again an All-Star while putting up career-highs in rebounds (15.7) and assists (3.2). Drummond is still only 24 years old and has his best basketball years ahead of him.
The Pistons have also received encouraging signs from rookie Luke Kennard. A lottery pick in last summer’s draft, Kennard he’s been one of the few bright spots at times for the Pistons. About a week ago, his playing time had diminished some and he racked up a few DNP’s, but Stan Van Gundy has since reinserted him into the rotation.
They’ve also gotten solid production out of Reggie Bullock. When Bullock came over to the Pistons in a trade with the Phoenix Suns almost three years ago, he was little more than a seldom-used wing with the potential to become a solid 3&D guy. This has been his year, however. He’s the best shooter on the team at 43.5 percent from the three-point line. His numbers, 10.8 points per game and 49.1 percent shooting from the field, are career-highs.
What Needs To Change
Quite a bit. Acquiring Griffin was a move the Pistons needed to make. On the verge of losing control of the season, they needed to make a move to try and turn things around. It’s been a disaster thus far, however. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and although they’re in ninth place, they’re falling farther and farther away from eighth.
Who the Pistons are really missing is Reggie Jackson. Ish Smith, who has proven himself beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is an NBA player, just isn’t Jackson. They desperately need Jackson’s playmaking abilities to help take the pressure off everyone else. Even if he returns this season, it’s already too late. The Pistons need to focus on getting him healthy and ready for next season.
The Pistons also need to improve their offense. They’re in the bottom half of the league in both points per game (25th) and offensive rating (24th). A big part of that is Jackson’s absence, but they could also benefit from additional outside shooting. Right now they have one long-range threat on the roster and that’s Bullock.
Focus Area: The Draft
To make matters worse, the Pistons will likely give up their draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of the Griffin trade. The only way the Clippers wouldn’t acquire the Pistons’ pick this year is if it falls in the top four, and that’s not going to happen.
The Pistons will have a second-round pick though. The draft is never 100 percent guaranteed, and the second round is even more of a crapshoot, but talented players can definitely be found. That’s what the Pistons’ main objective in the draft should be. It sounds silly, but they truly need to buckle down and do their homework in hopes of finding that one overlooked guy in the second round. That’s pretty much all they have to look forward to come draft night.
Focus Area: Free Agency
The Pistons are going to have a couple of minor decisions to make this summer regarding their free agents. Jameer Nelson, James Ennis, and Anthony Tolliver are all unrestricted free agents. Out of the three, Ennis has given the team the best on-court production, but it isn’t necessary that any of them are brought back.
Bullock and Dwight Buycks have non-guaranteed contracts, and those are the two guys that the Pistons should work towards bringing back in the fold. Both should have their contracts guaranteed for the following season. Bullock is their only three-point threat. Buycks began the season as a two-way contract player splitting time between the Pistons and the Grand Rapids Drive of the G-League. He’s since been converted to a standard NBA contract and has done enough to earn his spot on the team next year.
In terms of adding new players to the roster, as mentioned before, the Pistons need outside shooting. Marco Belinelli and Wayne Ellington are possible options that the Pistons might be able to afford. Joe Harris is another option, but it will be interesting to see what the market is for him after the strong season he’s been having in Brooklyn.
It’s tough to gauge the Pistons’ true potential without Jackson. If he returns before the season ends, it will be too small a sample size to accurately assess the team. There are only 14 games left. Although things look pretty bleak right now, it can’t be argued that injuries haven’t played a big role in the Pistons disappointing season.
The team deserves a shot at seeing how a healthy Jackson, Griffin, and Drummond trio looks on the court together. If they start off next season the same way despite all three being healthy and in the lineup, then it would be time for serious changes.