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Top Storylines Entering the 2016-17 NBA Season

Jabari Davis takes a look at some of the top preseason storylines as the 2016-17 NBA season draws near.

Jabari Davis

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With such a busy NBA offseason and basketball to watch during the Olympics, it sort of feels crazy that preseason games have already started and the 2016-17 campaign is weeks away. Beyond the reported $3.58 billion in guaranteed contracts that were doled out this summer or the Kevin Durant decision that resulted in bit of a ripple effect taking place around the league as teams scrambled to adjust, there were also organizations that decided to essentially press the proverbial “reset” button in order to take things in entirely new directions. The Lakers, Spurs and Timberwolves each saw longtime franchise legends walk away and are now adjusting to life with shifting responsibilities or new players stepping into roles of leadership – especially with San Antonio and L.A. Teams like the HEAT, Bulls, Hawks and Rockets each return with significant shifts to their core groups, not to mention the 12 teams with new head coaches since the start of last season. Needless to say, there are a ton of great storylines to pay attention to throughout the league, but here are a few to specifically keep an eye on as we head into the season:

The eventual fit in Oakland

Although much of the focus was on the fact that a team coming off a 73-9 season essentially swapped a role player (Harrison Barnes) for perhaps one of the game’s all-time scorers, we should probably take a moment to also acknowledge that a definite transition period should be expected after the Warriors also lost Andrew Bogut, Marreese Speights and Leandro Barbosa. Pairing Durant alongside Draymond Green is about as versatile a forward combo as we’ve seen since the 1980s Celtics, and they are about to put forth one of the most potent offensive units we’ve ever seen; the Stephen Curry/Durant/Klay Thompson trio might actually approach 1,000 threes between them. But they could also have to undergo adjustments to their defensive approach.

Can Zaza Pachulia replace what Bogut brought this team on the defensive end? Pachulia may look more productive on paper, but the Warriors will need him to be the rim-protecting presence Bogut was when healthy over the last four seasons. Guys like David West, James McAdoo and perhaps Kevon Looney can replace whatever was lost with Speights leaving town, but Bogut has been the team’s main source of rim protection for some time now, so Pachulia’s effectiveness on the defensive end could be a bigger deal than some may be considering. 

Which Eastern Conference team emerges as Cleveland’s greatest competition?

The Toronto Raptors have held that position over the past couple seasons, but could face steep competition from the Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and a few other dark horses. Teams like the New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets have each undergone significant changes and remain as “wild cards” depending upon how well the parts wind up fitting and relative team health along the way.

Paul George looked phenomenal during his time with Team USA and should hit the ground running, equipped with an improved Pacers roster that has a nice blend of talented youth alongside veterans who can also still contribute. The Celtics added Al Horford, retained some key guys in Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko and drafted another athletic (yet raw) swingman in Jaylen Brown who appears to fit the mold of type of physical player Boston prefers.

The Knicks added a ton of vets to play alongside Carmelo Anthony, but the actual story for the present and future in New York will be the continued development of Kristaps Porzingis. Early predictions and expectations of a return to the Conference Finals discussion have since tempered, but it will at least be fun to see the Knicks playing some competitive ball as Porzingis’ game continues to unfold.

The Hawks are another team that underwent significant roster turnover and enter the year with a bit of an unknown feeling that is strangely refreshing. Will Dwight Howard jell with newly promoted Dennis Schröder, as the 23-year-old adjusts to the added responsibility of leading the team? Time will tell whether the new desire to shoot more jumpers will pan out for Howard, but the hope would be returning to a familiar hometown market will be just what the 30-year-old center needs to be at his best.

The Raptors still feature the All-Star duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but also return with a bit of depth with rookie big man Jakob Poeltl, free agent Jared Sullinger and perhaps even an energy guy in Pascal Siakam to keep an eye on. The rate at which the young guys develop could determine the depth of roster options, but a real key to Toronto’s chances this year could be whether Sullinger is finally able to put it all together on the court. He looks a bit better than he did at times in Boston from a physical standpoint, but the Raptors could really be in business if the 24-year-old Ohio State product can remain locked in this season.

Will the Clippers take the next step?

This could be the year the Clippers finally take the next step in the playoffs. The roster is as balanced as it’s ever been in Doc Rivers’ tenure as head coach and de facto front office head, and the clock is ticking on the contracts of multiple core pieces – namely Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Whether Coach Rivers actually believes there is “no gap” between the Clippers and the top teams in the league, this could be his best chance to prove that notion.

The Spurs will likely be just as formidable even in transition, but the Clippers will also have teams like the Trail Blazers, Grizzlies and Jazz each trying to take steps forward in competition for a top seed. Both OKC  and Houston could be considered wild cards. Russell Westbrook will undoubtedly play out of his mind in the new role as unquestioned leader and the pairing alongside Victor Oladipo should be absolutely electric. There also seems to be a renewed sense of confidence with the roster shift and the hiring of head coach Mike D’Antoni in Houston. We saw what type of success a happy James Harden could have just a couple seasons back when he wound up second in the MVP race to Steph Curry. Plus, Harden, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon (health permitting) et al. are about to make a ton of threes in that D’Antoni offense this season.

Shifting back to Los Angeles, the main guys are still going to do what’s expected from them, although Griffin could have even more motivation to prove himself in his return. Where taking chances on guys like Josh Smith and Lance Stephenson led to issues last season, the front office went out and added some quality pieces to help balance out some of the workload throughout the season. Whether it ultimately winds up being a “now or never” situation or owner Steve Ballmer makes good on his reported vow to do whatever it takes to keep Griffin and Paul in Los Angeles, while there will be some serious competition, the Clippers appear to be in the prime position to finally live up to the “dark horse” title some have been so eager to give them over the past few years.

How will the rookies and youth movements around the league fare?

Aside from the terrible news Sixers fans recently received on the summer’s #1 pick Ben Simmons, this is also the best time of the year to remind yourselves of where each rookie wound up landing. Individual expectations aside, Minnesota leads what could be as many as a dozen current youth movements throughout the league that should each be fun to watch develop. Karl-Anthony Towns had a historically good rookie season and appears to already have a trajectory of some of the better bigs of late. Having seen Coach Tom Thibodeau take over and help galvanize a young group in Chicago within the last decade, the growing sense of optimism surrounding this team makes sense when you consider this group could wind up proving to have a considerable amount of talent.

The Lakers and Suns each have really interesting cores as well, as each organization heads into the year with multiple young pieces to be excited about. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker could wind up being one of the more exciting backcourts in the conference and Phoenix also brought in two promising bigs in Dragan Bender (versatile, can shoot and defend) and Marquese Chriss (one of the more athletic bigs in the draft) to develop alongside them. Tyler Ulis may have a bunch of players ahead of him on the depth chart heading in, but don’t be shocked to see him work himself into the rotation as well.

The Lakers are in one of the more unique positions of any team as they not only said goodbye to a franchise legend and the team’s leader last spring, but they also changed the head coach and overall basketball philosophy with the hire of Luke Walton and staff and now find themselves in a process of essentially rebranding with a bevy of talented, young players with no discernible leader for the first time in 20 years. They did a solid job of adding veteran presences both in the locker room and on Walton’s bench in order to assist with the transition, but it actually appears as though the franchise is fully prepared to allow this core group to learn and grow together in the same organic nature as they did following Magic Johnson’s initial departure from the game about 25 years ago. For longtime fans, while the uncertainty isn’t something they are accustomed to, there also has to be a certain level of excitement based directly upon the expectation and splendor of the unknown.

Still just 23 years old, Anthony Davis is also the leader of an intriguing team conversion in year two under Coach Alvin Gentry in New Orleans. The Pelicans have some veterans on that roster, but the principle characters are still relatively young. Could this be the roster that Lance Stephenson finally recaptures what worked so well for him for a time in Indiana? Adding a scorer like Buddy Hield into the mix will certainly help, but once again Stephenson is in a position where he could be a real difference maker if he winds up making the roster.

Don’t forget about those young groups in Denver, Orlando and Milwaukee as well, as each squad should give fans plenty to be excited over as we head into the season.

Again, these are just a few of the storylines to look for as there are literally dozens of great roster battles, teams attempting to transition from being “pretenders” to actual “contenders” and promising youth movements across the league. Regardless of whether the ultimate outcome is yet another epic (rubber match) showdown between the Cavs and Warriors, 2016-17 is already shaping up to be another one for the ages.

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Where Can Dallas Go From Here?

The Dallas Mavericks have had a bad season, what can they do to turn it around?

Zach Dupont

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The Dallas Mavericks struck gold in 2018 when they secured Slovenian superstar Luka Doncic in the NBA Draft.

Fast forward to 2021 and Doncic has already emerged as one of the best players in the NBA and a borderline perennial MVP candidate. This season, Doncic is averaging 28.5 points, 9.0 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game and was just named as a starter in the All-Star Game for the second time in a row. But Doncic’s success isn’t leading the Mavericks to wins as Dallas holds a mediocre 17-16 record and currently sits 9th in the Western Conference.

Outside of Doncic, the Mavericks lack the scoring needed to push them over the top. Kristaps Porzingis is Dallas’ second-leading scorer, averaging 20.5 points per game, but he has had trouble staying healthy, playing in only 17 games. Porzingis hasn’t been shooting the ball consistently either, shooting only 35 percent from three-point range so far.

Dallas, as a team, needs help with their outside shooting. The Mavericks are 23rd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, hitting 35.3 percent of their outside shots on the season. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that Dallas shoots the ninth most three-pointer per game at 37.1 three-point attempts – wilder, ranking ninth in three-pointers attempted rate, 42.7 percent of Dallas’ shots come from beyond the arc.

The defense has also been a thorn in the Mavericks’ side this year. At one point, Porzingis was one of the more dynamic shot blockers and interior defenders in the league, but this season he has taken a step back. Dallas rocks the fifth-worst defensive rating in the NBA of 114.4, only beating out the Washington Wizards, New Orleans Pelicans, Portland Trailblazers and Sacramento Kings. Having the fifth-worst defense isn’t good enough if the Mavericks are serious about competing this year.

One player that might help Dallas in both areas is a former player, current Sacramento Kings’ wing Harrison Barnes. Barnes has had a very productive season in Sacramento, averaging 16.1 points per game on 48.9 field goal percentage and 40 percent from three. At 6-foot-8 and 225 lbs, Barnes has the size to defend elite wing players, often doing a modest job for a very bad defensive. Barnes also is capable of operating as a secondary ball-handler with some limited playmaking abilities that could help diversify the Mavericks’ offense.   

Another player rumored to be on the market is Charlotte Hornets guard Terry Rozier. The Hornets have a log jam at the guard position between Rozier, LaMelo Ball and Devonte’ Graham, and Rozier could be a nice fit alongside Doncic in the backcourt. Rozier would immediately improve the Mavericks’ three-point shooting as Scary Terry is knocking down 44.5 percent of his deep hoists. Another benefit of bringing in Rozier is his ability to act as a primary ball-handler, alongside Doncic that would take the pressure off to create a basket every time down the floor. Rozier’s defense does leave a lot to be desired, but he works hard on that end and averages 1.3 steals per game.

Further, two big men known to be on the trade block are Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins and Cleveland Cavaliers center Andre Drummond. In his fourth season, Collins has taken another step forward on both ends of the court, averaging 17.4 points on an ultra-efficient 62.2 true shooting percentage. Collins has also improved as a defender since he first entered the league and is now making a much more positive impact on defense.

This improvement is evident by his defensive rating of 111.7, more than two whole points lower than the Hawks’ team defensive rating of 113.8, per NBA.com. Collins does have some drawbacks though, chief among them is that he’ll hit restricted free agency this offseason in time for a massive payday.

Drummond has sat out since the Cavaliers started looking for a partner, and Dallas presents an exciting option for the 27-year-old center. Drummond is a monster on the glass, averaging 13.5 rebounds per game this season – a number that is actually the lowest he’s put up since 2014-15. For Drummond to fit on this team and help them win games, he’d have to cut back his scoring attempts dramatically.

Drummond’s 17.5 points per game look nice, but when paired with a 50 percent true shooting, it’s much less appealing. However, the potential rim protection and rebounding may be worth the risk of his lackluster offensive numbers – best of all, the asking price should be low too.

A roadblock to acquiring anyone for Dallas is their lack of assets to give back in a trade. The Mavericks don’t own their 2021 or 2023 first-round draft picks, which leaves them only able to trade a first-round pick at the earliest for 2025. Dallas isn’t loaded with prospects to ship away either. Any of the 2020 draft picks would provide some value, but not enough to get a deal done for a significant difference-maker.

Dallas has their generational talent, but they need to build a roster around him if they expect to succeed and lock down a potential-laden future together.

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Anthony Edwards Showing Promising Progression

Anthony Edwards has been a highlight reel every single night but his poor shooting has gotten a lot of attention as well. Chad Smith details why there should be no cause for concern regarding the future of the top overall draft pick.

Chad Smith

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There is a lot of pressure that comes with being selected number one overall in the NBA Draft. This is especially true in today’s game, where the top pick is expected to have an immediate impact. Often times when a player is the top pick, they are instantly the most talented player on their team, or at least have the most potential.

This was not the case for Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Karl-Anthony Towns is still the face of the franchise. And, as many highlight plays and rim-destroying dunks that Edwards provides, he is still a raw talent with a lot to learn. To his credit, Edwards not only is well aware of and acknowledges that fact, but has the work ethic and maturity needed to fulfill his potential.

The former Georgia Bulldog is still just 19-years-old, but he has the physical tools to do what a lot of players in the league cannot. He does an excellent job of leveraging his size, speed and quickness to get wherever he wants to on the floor. His rebounding and defense have already improved just 35 games into the season. The glaring weakness in his game is shooting efficiency, which every scouting report on him around the league has written in all caps with red ink.

Edwards is shooting 37 percent overall from the floor, 31 percent from beyond the arc and 80 percent from the free-throw line. The latter indicates that he has the touch but the accuracy just isn’t there from long range. On average, Edwards takes 14 shot attempts per game and six of them are of the three-point variety. Nearly half of his shot attempts come from the three-point line because he is typically wide open, which plays right into the hands of the defense.

Once Edwards gets a grasp of how the game is played and what the defense is trying to do to him, a light will go off in his head. The old saying goes “take what the defense gives you” but it is also important to recognize your own strengths and weaknesses. Based on his work ethic and desire to improve his game, it is only a matter of time before he figures it out.

The numbers show that Edwards is already evolving in other areas of the game. After blocking just two total shots in the month of January, the rookie recorded 12 blocks in February. His 3.2 rebounds per game in January rose to 5.1 last month and his assist average went from 1.9 to 3.3 per game.

Minnesota owns the worst record in the league, but help is on the way. The Timberwolves fired head coach Ryan Saunders after their 7-24 start to the season. Minutes after the news broke, the team already had their new man: Chris Finch, one of the NBA’s top assistant coaches for quite some time. More importantly, Finch has a long history with Gersson Rosas and a solid track record of molding talented young players.

Finch worked with a young Nikola Jokic when he was with the Denver Nuggets and helped develop Anthony Davis when he worked for the New Orleans Pelicans. He joined the Toronto Raptors coaching staff this season and molded Chris Boucher into one of the top candidates for the Most Improved Player Award; it wouldn’t be the first time he pushed a player into the award, either, as he helped Brandon Ingram win the award during the 2019-20 season.

One other notable thing that Finch did while in New Orleans is fix Lonzo Ball’s jump shot. He started with the mechanics. Instead of Ball bringing the ball up from the side of his hip, Finch was able to get him to bring it up in the middle of his body. He also worked with the young guard on his shot selection, both of which have paid large dividends this season.

There will be plenty of tools for Finch to incorporate into his plans to resurrect one of the league’s worst offenses. Along with Towns and Edwards, the Timberwolves have been getting fantastic production from Malik Beasley, who just received a 12-game suspension. Ricky Rubio has been filling in nicely as former All-Star D’Angelo Russell is out with a knee injury. Jarred Vanderbilt, Jarrett Culver, Josh Okogie and rookie Jaden McDaniels are all part of the young nucleus that Finch inherits as well.

Before the coaching change, the Timberwolves scored just 1.15 points per possession on cuts and 0.86 points per possession off of screen plays, per Cleaning The Glass. Both of these ranked bottom five in the league. Finch loves to incorporate off-ball screens and cuts to the basket so this should give them a nice boost, especially with excellent cutters like Edwards and Okogie.

Despite the typical rookie efficiency issues, Edwards has been contributing in other ways. Using his elite athleticism to get to the rim provides Minnesota a multitude of positive outcomes. Edwards can either finish at the rim, create space for others to get open shots, or get fouled and collect points at the free-throw line, being the excellent free-throw shooter that he is.

It is easy to see that Edwards has the desire to win; he cares about winning and the team’s success overall. After their game against the Raptors, all anyone wanted to talk about was his incredible dunk over Yuta Watanabe. Edwards didn’t miss a beat though. “I don’t care about the dunk,” he said. “I couldn’t make shots.” Edwards did not dwell on the moment either, leaving the podium and heading back out onto the court to get more shots up.

There is a long history of guys in this league that have struggled with efficiency, then became decent or above-average shooters. It’s all about hard work, dedication, and repetition. Edwards has all of the ingredients needed to improve that part of his game. That is just one piece of the puzzle in Minnesota but one that could finally steer this franchise in the right direction.

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NBA Most Valuable Player Watch – March 1

With the All-Star break on the horizon, Tristan Tucker updates the MVP ladder, with two former MVP winners picking up steam in recent weeks.

Tristan Tucker

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In a typical year, it’s rare to see more than two players in serious contention for the MVP award midway through the season. But, as everyone knows all too well, this is no normal NBA season, with three players alternating between the top three spots on what seems like a daily basis.

With the All-Star break nearly here, it’s time to take a look at how the MVP race is shaping up at the halfway point of the season.

1. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (Previous: 1)

Embiid is at the top of his game right now, averaging 31.5 points, 13.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game in the time since Basketball Insiders’ last ladder update. In that span, Embiid is shooting 47.2 percent from downtown, with a 50-point performance against the Chicago Bulls and a 42-point performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Even more impressive, the 76ers are outscoring opponents by 18.8 points when Embiid is on the floor, which ranks in the 100th percentile of the NBA. That kind of production is literally unmatched, which should give Embiid a clear edge in the MVP race.

Philadelphia is a far more up-and-down team now than they were to begin the year, but Embiid’s continued growth has the 76ers with legitimate title hopes just five years removed from a 10-72 season.

2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (Previous: 3)

In the last two weeks, Jokic embarked on an amazing stretch, averaging 27.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 2.1 steals per game while shooting 56.7 percent from the floor and 55.2 percent from deep. While the Nuggets are still searching for answers to their season, Jokic is doing everything in his power to keep them in the playoff picture.

If Jokic’s play this year was combined with Denver’s 2019-20 record, there’s little doubt that he would be leading the MVP race. However, a lack of consistency (with some embarrassing losses to the Washington Wizards and the injury-riddled Atlanta Hawks) has kept Jokic from outright claiming the top spot.

3. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers (Previous: 2)

James’ case for MVP has stagnated over the last two weeks, with the Lakers losing four-straight in that span. It’s hurt his case, but that isn’t to say that his on-court production hasn’t been ridiculously impressive, averaging 25.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game in the last two weeks.

The Lakers are 14.5 points better when James is on the court and it’s evident to see that “The King” is keeping the Lakers afloat in spite of an injury to co-star Anthony Davis. That being said, James is going to need to cut back on games like those played during the team’s four-game losing streak; he committed eight turnovers against Washington and was a minus-20 against the Utah Jazz.

4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (Previous: 6)

Curry had an incredible February, especially closer to the beginning of the month. On the month, Curry averaged 32.1 points per game while shooting 41.9 percent on 12.8 attempts from three per game. That kind of production is reminiscent of his play in 2016, when he was unanimously awarded MVP.

Curry’s February numbers would have looked even more impressive if it weren’t for mediocre showings against the Miami HEAT, Indiana Pacers and Lakers. But the fact that Curry missed 30 threes combined in those games and still finished shooting better than nearly everyone else in the league is a testament to just how rare of a talent Curry is.

5. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (Previous: Not Ranked)

With injuries to CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, it seemed as if the already struggling Portland Trail Blazers were doomed to fade out of the playoff picture. Despite four straight losses, Lillard is carrying Portland with all of his might to a potential postseason berth, with the Blazers sitting at 18-14.

Over the span of two weeks, Lillard’s been on another planet, averaging 32.2 points and 10.8 assists per game while averaging 13 threes and making 37.2 percent of them. Take a second to think of the names that are starting next to Lillard: Gary Trent Jr., Enes Kanter, Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. Trent and Kanter are playing well, but it’s hard to believe that that lineup is currently the sixth seed in the Western Conference.

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Previous: NR)

The competition at the bottom of the ladder is getting tighter with each passing week, with Kawhi Leonard and Luka Doncic each making promising cases while the HEAT’s Jimmy Butler has been a triple-double machine. But the selection here, at least this week, is Giannis Antetokounmpo, fresh off a game against the Los Angeles Clippers in which he put up 36 points, 14 rebounds and 5 assists.

In the last six games, the Bucks have put together a five-game win streak, with Antetokounmpo averaging 33.6 points, 13 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. “The Greek Freak’s” per game numbers have soared as Milwaukee’s overall success has grown, with his numbers inching closer to that of his MVP seasons. His success was even recognized around the league, with Antetokounmpo most recently named Eastern Conference Player of the Week.

While Antetokounmpo has a lot of work to do to make up lost ground in the MVP race, the Bucks’ recent play should have him among the top vote-getters despite some likely voter fatigue.

The period after the All-Star break is when teams buckle down and commit to playoff runs, separating the pretenders from the contenders. The feeling here is that the same will happen with the MVP race and that one true leader of the pack will soon emerge. Be sure to stay tuned to Basketball Insiders for the next MVP ladder!

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