Who Is Selling?
With the NBA regular season schedule set to drop this week, we have started to look forward a little here at Basketball Insiders, taking aim at potential free agents and the players that could be on the move as basketball ramps back up in the coming weeks.
With that in mind, how are some of the teams that are likely sellers this season:
The Orlando Magic’s new front office was disciplined this off-season, they did not spend lavishly or make a bold franchise changing trades, much to the chagrin of their fans. The mindset in Orlando was that last year was so chaotic that seeing first-hand what they really had was more valuable than reacting to what Orlando’s new executives saw from afar.
New leadership has leaned heavily on head coach Frank Vogel in understanding the potential of the roster, and it seems leadership is giving everyone a fairly clean slate to come in and earn their roles and their potential future.
The outcome of all of that is some players are going to play themselves into a future in Orlando and some (likely many) will not, making Orlando an absolute seller this season. The Magic are a team with real roster parts to pawn off as decisions get made on certain players, meaning they are the team to watch as the season unfolds.
Relatively speaking, the Magic have some value-priced contributors: Nikola Vucevic ($12.25 million), Evan Fournier ($17 million), Terrence Ross ($10.50 million) and D.J. Augustin ($7.25 million). None of them are likely franchise changing players, but all have proven to be productive.
The Magic also face some decisions with rookie scale guys like Aaron Gordon and Elfird Payton, who are each eligible for contract extensions this summer. Former fifth overall pick Mario Hezonja has never lived up to his draft hype and may or may not have a role this season.
The Magic have options if they want to explore them. The question becomes when will they pull the trigger on things, not if they pull the trigger.
The Phoenix Suns have re-committed to their front office, giving them the assurances that ownership will follow through with their longer-term vision. The Suns have, over the years, been collecting quite the treasure trove of young players and may actually have too much youth to really start to break out of the bottom tier in the West.
The Suns are one of the teams linked to Cavaliers’ guard Kyrie Irving, and while many in NBA circles peg them as the team with the assets to win over the Cavs, it does not appear that the Suns are willing to go all-in on Irving just yet. We’ll see as the clock ticks closer to training camp if either side budges on what they would do in a deal.
That does not mean the Suns won’t be active. The Suns explored trades around the NBA Draft, having been involved in talks to acquire Kevin Love from Cleveland. They were approached about being part of Houston’s four-team pitch for Carmelo Anthony.
With so many options, the idea of the Suns being sellers is not only real, it’s very likely, especially if the Suns can find a way to offload Tyson Chandler’s $13 million salary.
The Suns have been linked to rumors on guard Eric Bledsoe for months, and there is no question they have young guys to sweeten a deal, especially if it returns real talent.
That’s going to be the driver for the Suns – they want real talent in return. The Suns technically still have cap space if they opt to renounce the $12.059 million cap hold on Alex Len, so Phoenix has a lot of options if they wanted to explore them.
The Atlanta Hawks are in full rebuild mode. While no-one in Atlanta is going to admit to tanking, there is little doubt that the Hawks this year were constructed to hit bottom. It’s possible that Kent Bazemore can rebound to the form that landed him his four-year $70 million payday in 2016, but can a team anchored by Bazemore and guard Dennis Schroder really compete, even in the East?
The good news for the Hawks is they do not have a lot of long-term cap cash to shed beyond Bazemore and Schroder. The Miles Plumlee deal looks a little ugly in the context of a rebuild, but he was the price to dump off the $47 million remaining on Dwight Howard’s deal.
While the Hawks look like a team open for business, they don’t have much by way of assets others would covet. It’s possible one of the Hawks younger guys blossoms into something worth talking about in trade, but as things stand, the Hawks are a team to watch mainly because they are bottoming out, not so much because they have assets you could easily rationalize taking on in trade.
Like the Phoenix Suns, the Denver Nuggets have been amassing a pretty impressive cast of young players. They too have been linked to Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving, and much like Phoenix, they do possess an interesting combination of older win-now players to combine with significant youth.
The Nuggets were the team that was able to poach Paul Millsap, with the idea that Denver was ready to be more than a middling western conference team. The Nuggets, though, become a team to watch as some teams decide to part with veteran players.
It’s hard to win in the NBA with an average roster age under 26 years old, and with Denver having so much youth—especially youth that plays big minutes—moving off some of it for proven players makes a lot of sense.
The Nuggets had explored the trade value of players like Kenneth Faried ($12.921 million), Wilson Chandler ($12.016 million), Emmanuel Mudiay ($3.381 million) and Darrell Arthur ($7.464 million).
The Nuggets have ending contracts on Wilson (Player Option), Arthur (Player Option), Will Barton (Unrestricted) and Jameer Nelson (Unrestricted).
Unlike a team like the Magic, who will inevitably make moves, the Nuggets don’t necessarily need to make changes. If, however, they are going to be the team they sold Millsap on, it’s hard to imagine the Nuggets not being aggressive, especially when real players hit the market.
Like the Hawks, the Bulls are tearing down and starting over. The Bulls are not in a bad way salary cap wise as Dwyane Wade’s $23.8 million salary comes off the books in July. The question becomes, is there a trade the Bulls can construct to get value out of Wade before the February 8th trade deadline?
The Bulls roster is littered with underachieving young guys who will get a real chance this season to show if they are what the Bulls hoped they’d be when they invested in them.
With this season being about the draft lottery and the future, the Bulls are a team to watch in terms of moving off veterans or young guys the Bulls lose faith in. They did something similar with Tony Snell, who blossomed in Milwaukee. The question is whether they do the same with forward Bobby Portis, second-year swingman Denzel Valentine or Cameron Payne.
The Bulls do have Robin Lopez, whose $13.78 million salary this year isn’t crazy, however, the $14.357 million owed next year does clog up the cap a little.
Like the Hawks, the Bulls don’t have much to sell, but with the bottom clearly in their sights for this season, they are a team to watch.
The LA Lakers are going to be sellers. As much as the team wants to talk about a playoff berth this season, there is a bigger picture plan that is going to require the Lakers to dump salary.
It is no big secret that the Lakers want to enter the 2018 offseason with two full max salary slots available to them. To do that, they are going to have to shed some of what’s likely to be $59.479 million in salary commitments.
The latest NBA projection pegs the 2018-19 salary cap at $103 million. Those numbers always fluctuate, but for planning purposes, $103 million cap means two max slots at 35% of the cap is going to cost $36.05 million each or $72.1 million. The quick math says the Lakers have to dump all but $30.9 million in cap dollars committed.
To achieve that, Luol Deng ($17.19 million), Jordan Clarkson ($11.562 million), Corey Brewer ($7.579 million) and perhaps Julius Randle ($4.149 million) are going to have to come off the books.
The good news is Brewer is a free agent in July, so his number falls off, much like the $22.642 million owed to Brook Lopez and the one-year $17.745 million owed to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Randle is a future free agent, so the Lakers could simply renounce him if they need his space and don’t have to make that decision before the deadline. However, Randle may be the piece the Lakers have to include to get anyone to consider the $54 million still owed to Deng.
As much as the Lakers want to talk about them being a potential playoff team this year, they almost have to sell off pieces in season, if they want any shot at the two max salary slots they would need to have to pursue the free agent targets (LeBron James and Paul George) they have been linked to.
All week, we have been looking at future free agents, players on the move and teams to watch as a primer for our upcoming NBA Season Previews that will drop the first week of September. Keep your eye out for new items dropping all week as we try and get you through the doldrums of the NBA’s dormant period.
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NBA AM: Defensive Player Of The Year Watch
Rudy Gobert would appear to be the front runner for Defensive Player of the Year. But should he be? A few players have made it quite the interesting race — and Dylan Thayer lays out exactly who.
The postseason is almost here as the NBA regular season winds down to its last couple of weeks. At this point, it is obvious to tell whether a team is going to make the playoffs or head for an appearance in the NBA draft lottery. What hasn’t been obvious thus far though is who is going to win the MVP award, but it looks to be between Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard and Joel Embiid. The DPotY award has been one that most could agree belongs to Rudy Gobert for the season he is having. The official site of the NBA however does not agree with this notion. Anyways, let’s jump right into our eighth edition of the Defensive Player of the Year Watch for Basketball Insiders!
1. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (Previous: 1)
It’s too late to displace Rudy Gobert from this position in these rankings because his season has been that good. While the Utah Jazz are destined to finish amongst the top of the Western Conference, Gobert will also finish at the top of this award’s final tally, even if he somehow isn’t the winner. Without the center from France, the Jazz defense would be out of sorts, as just his presence around the rim is enough to ward off the opposing offense. Just ask the Spurs.
This is why Rudy Gobert is the DPOY. pic.twitter.com/5A6omPhAwV
— Slam Studios (@SlamStudios) May 4, 2021
And while he did get completely crossed out of his shoes by Devin Booker recently, it is a season-long award, so don’t hold that against him. For the majority of the season, he has held firm in key defensive stats such as defensive rating, defensive win shares and blocks per game. He ranks second in all three categories, per NBA Advanced Stats 𑁋 101.4 defensive rating, 0.181 defensive win shares and 2.8 blocks per game. These are key indicators that he has been having a monster season, along with the Jazz being one of the best teams in the league. As things continue to unfold, expect Gobert to come out of the season as the DPotY.
2. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (Previous: 2)
The seven-foot-three center for the Philadelphia 76ers has had a memorable season under Doc Rivers. The hiring of the new coach made a big impact on the Sixers’ future and helped Embiid take his game to even higher levels. The Sixers have looked like a title contender throughout the season, thanks to great defense from their two stars. Embiid holding down the paint and Simmons being a pest on and off the ball around the perimeter. His defensive rating is fifth among qualified starters with a rating of 105.6, to go along with 1.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. Averaging more than a block and steal per game puts Embiid in elite company defensively, as P.J. Washington and Bam Adebayo are the only other centers putting up similar numbers. Embiid should be a finalist for this award for the impact and effect he leaves on the defensive end of the floor for the Sixers every game.
3. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers (Previous: N/A)
Simmons has been severely disrespected on this list many times, so now is the time to give him the recognition he deserves. As the number two offensive option for the Sixers, the defensive end is a different story, as Simmons brings a lot of energy to the defensive unit. Statistics aside, he has been a complete machine on defense wreaking havoc on his opponents. Whether it’s sending a Charlie Brown three flying into the stands or picking off an inbound pass intended for Coby White and taking it to the basket to ice the game, he has been having one of the best defensive seasons across the NBA. The advanced stats back up the claim as he ranks fifth in defensive win shares with 0.142. He’s also third in the league in steals per game with 1.7 per game to go along with 0.6 blocks per game. His play on defense has raised eyebrows everywhere, and he should be in the running for the DPotY award.
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) April 27, 2021
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Previous: 5)
The Greek Freak has been having another historical season, even though he hasn’t gotten the credit he truly deserves. This happens when you have insane statistical seasons the past few years though, some people stop paying attention. Antetokounmpo should be recognized for the impact he has on winning for the Milwaukee Bucks, especially on the defensive end. Antetokounmpo averages 1.3 blocks and 1.2 steals per game at the power forward position and is always someone opposing players have to think about when they’re on offense. He also ranks seventh in defensive win shares (0.139) and eighth in defensive rating (106.3), so the advanced metrics also show just how valuable he is to have. While he may not win the award this year, even though he is the reigning DPotY, he should still be in the conversation as one of the game’s elite defenders.
5. Jimmy Butler, Miami HEAT (Previous: Honorable Mention)
The leader of the Miami HEAT has been having another phenomenal season on defense as the HEAT gear up for the playoff run. He has been a thief on defense as he leads the league in steals with 2.1 per game. Butler is so quick to display his elite defensive IQ as he is always there to jump the passing lane or attack a ballhandler at his vulnerable dribbling moments. Butler also ranks in the top 10 in defensive win shares with 0.138. It is clear that with him, Bam Adebayo, and the newly-acquired Victor Oladipo, that the HEAT are going to be a defensive nightmare for opposing teams this postseason.
Honorable Mention: Mike Conley, Utah Jazz (Previous: 4)
The game tape doesn’t jump off the screen to represent Conley’s case for the award, but as the season comes to an end, it is clear that Conley has played a huge role on the Jazz defense. Opposing teams not only have to worry about the Stifle Tower in the middle of the Jazz defense, but they also have to worry about the pesky point guard looking to steal the ball at any moment. Conley’s season has been remarkable as his improved play has been a catalyst of the improved play out of Utah. The advanced statistics give Conley a big lift and vaulted him into these rankings, as they are just too hard to ignore when he’s been at the top all season. Conley leads the league in both defensive rating (99.9) and defensive win shares (0.181), as well as the 1.4 steals per game he posts for the season.
The running for the DPotY is coming to an end. It looks like the center for the Utah Jazz, Gobert, is going to be the winner, but anything is possible. The Simmons for DPotY movement has begun to make waves on Twitter, so maybe he comes up and wins the award. It is the NBA and nothing is completely assured, so don’t be surprised if the winner isn’t who you thought it would be. Here’s to another great NBA regular season despite all of the obstacles that were faced during the pandemic. Stay tuned for the next edition of the rankings!
NBA Most Valuable Player Watch – May 4
With under 10 games to go in the regular season, Tristan Tucker breaks down the latest iteration of Basketball Insiders’ MVP ladder.
With just a couple of weeks until the end of the 2020-21 regular season, the NBA’s award races are getting closer to being complete. Though several contenders emerged across the year, one is beginning to set himself apart from the rest. Let’s take a look at how the race is shaking out toward the end of the year.
1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (Previous: 1)
With under 10 games left in the regular season, it appears the MVP award is Jokic’s to lose. Much can happen in the last few weeks of the season, but Jokic has been phenomenal all year long. On the year, Jokic is averaging 26.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 1.4 steals per game and has the Nuggets on a five-game win streak and third in the west.
Jokic’s shooting splits are also the best of his career by far. “The Joker” is connecting at a 41.2 percent clip from deep and is shooting 86 percent from the charity stripe.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Previous: Honorable Mention)
Though Antetokounmpo missed more time soon after missing six straight, “The Greek Freak” would be a solid runner-up as MVP. Even though he played under a minute in one of the contests, Antetokounmpo is still averaging 26.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.6 steals and 1 block per game in his last nine outings.
However, no game is more impressive than his 49-point showing against the daunting Brooklyn Nets. With the massive playoff implications on the line, Antetokounmpo added 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and a steal in a win over Brooklyn.
3. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (Previous: 3)
Though Embiid might not win the award, he deserves immense credit for being this close in the race despite missing significant time due to injury. On the year, Embiid is averaging a career-high 29.3 points per game. Even more impressive is his career-best shooting numbers: 51.2 percent from the floor, 37.6 percent from three and 85.4 percent from the line.
At full health, the 76ers are a scary unit and are on the brink of clinching the top seed in the Eastern Conference. With its entire starting unit healthy, the team is 21-4.
4. Chris Paul/Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (Previous: 4)
As mentioned in the last ladder, Chris Paul and Devin Booker are equally responsible for the phenomenal success of the Suns. Phoenix has a legitimate chance to finish as the No. 1 seed in the west, a remarkable feat and quick turnaround for the franchise.
In the last few weeks, Paul is averaging 17.1 points and 9 assists per game while shooting 52.1 percent from the floor and 44.9 percent from deep. Success follows Paul wherever he goes. The worst a Paul-led team has performed is 37-45 in 2009-10, when he played just 45 games. Just last season, Paul took an Oklahoma City Thunder team with no stars to a 44-28 record.
However, this stint with the Suns might be his most impressive work yet. Phoenix, who finished outside of the playoffs last season, is 24-9 against teams with a .500 record or better.
Then there’s Booker, who’s averaging 25.6 points per game as the team’s leading scorer. Others are certainly contributing, but the tandem of Booker and Paul is one of the most exciting in the league.
5. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (Previous: 5)
The Mavericks are just 6-4 in their last 10 games with Doncic, but the team is close to clinching the Southwest Division. Winning the division would give the Mavericks a tiebreaker over the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Lakers, who are both tied with Dallas for the fifth seed.
Who says division titles don’t matter in the NBA?
Blazers, Mavericks and Lakers are all 36-28 … but if the season ended that way Dallas would claim the No. 5 seed as the Southwest Division champs. That’s the first tiebreaker in a three-way tie.
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) May 3, 2021
Even though the Mavericks haven’t jumped off the page in recent weeks, Doncic is continuing to be impressive. Since the last MVP ladder, Doncic is averaging 29 points, 10.4 assists, 8 rebounds and 1.2 steals while connecting at a 48.8 percent clip from the floor.
6. Julius Randle, New York Knicks (Previous: Not Ranked)
In what would’ve been an unthinkable turn of events mere months ago, the Knicks are 36-28, fourth in the Eastern Conference. Randle has been great all season but has played like a true superstar in the last few weeks.
Since April 13, Randle is averaging 31 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Even more mindblowing is the fact that Randle is shooting 51.4 percent from deep on 7.8 attempts per night across that span of time.
The Knicks are winners of 11 of their last 12 games and have clinched a postseason appearance for the first time since the 2012-13 season.
Honorable Mention: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (Previous: NR)
He won’t win the award due to team success but it would be amiss to not mention Stephen Curry in the race for MVP. There’s an argument to be made that no team would be worse off without its best player than the Warriors. Look no further than last season’s team that boasted the worst record in the league.
Over the last few weeks, Curry’s play has kept the Warriors in the playoff picture despite several injuries in the team’s frontcourt. Now, Curry is the leading scorer in the NBA, averaging 31.3 points per game while shooting 42.6 percent from three on 12.2 attempts per contest.
NBA Daily: Center Position Key to Celtics’ Fate
The Boston Celtics are walking the tight rope as they fight for their playoff position in the Eastern Conference. Brad Stevens must solve the riddle at the Center position if Boston wants to avoid being part of the Play-In Tournament.
After a disappointing and confusing start to the season, the Boston Celtics have seemingly turned things around. Boston went 11-5 in April but is still a full game out of the coveted sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. The ultimate goal is to avoid the new Play-In Tournament. To do that, they will need to play excellent basketball in these last seven regular-season games.
It was a wild weekend of basketball for the Celtics at TD Garden. On Friday, Jayson Tatum scored a career-high 60 points to cap a 32-point comeback win over the San Antonio Spurs in overtime. Tatum joined Larry Bird as the only Celtics player to reach that scoring mark and became the first player in team history to have multiple 50-point games in a season.
Following that victory, Boston was unable to stop the Portland Trail Blazers at home. Making matters worse, both Tatum and Jaylen Brown were injured after colliding with one another with just 40 seconds remaining in the game. The good news is that it appears both of Boston’s All-Stars are going to be okay.
Evan Fournier said Brown and Tatum didn’t seem particularly concerned with their injuries. Said he’s guessing they’re going to be good.
— Jay King (@ByJayKing) May 3, 2021
Boston has road trips to Orlando, Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota and New York. Those are games they should win but their two remaining home games will be pivotal. Both are against the Miami HEAT, who sit directly ahead of them in the standings. These two games could ultimately decide which team goes to the Play-In Tournament and which one will get a much-needed week of rest before the playoffs.
Brad Stevens has proven to be one of the elite coaches in this league, but even he has found this puzzle difficult to solve. On paper, the Celtics have all of the talent needed to content for one of the top teams in the East. Stevens has had to experiment with different lineups throughout the season as they have dealt with many of their players missing time for various reasons.
While Boston’s depth chart is fairly solidified, the one spot that has plagued them most this season has been the center position. With the playoffs right around the corner, it is a riddle they are still trying to solve.
When the Celtics traded Enes Kanter before the start of the season, it opened the door for free agent Tristan Thompson to join the fray. The two-year, $19 million contract that Thompson signed seemed to solidify him as the starting center going forward. His lack of production and versatility was part of the reason why Boston struggled coming out of the gates. Daniel Theis was a much better fit around the rest of the guys on the floor.
When Boston decided that the 30-year old Thompson was not the answer, the window of opportunity opened for Robert Williams. The 23-year old is in his third season and has been highly productive with his increased minutes. When Boston traded Theis to the Chicago Bulls at the trade deadline, part of that was proof of their confidence in Williams.
Looking at Boston’s other options, none of them have the upside that Williams possesses. Grant Williams has improved slightly but has not become a difference-maker. Mo Wagner was acquired at the trade deadline but has since been cut. Luke Kornet has stuck around since the trade but adds little value. Tacko Fall provides tremendous length but little to nothing else at this stage of his development.
The trio of Tatum, Brown and Kemba Walker account for about 60 percent of Boston’s scoring this season. While these three have shouldered the load on most nights, it has been the hustle, rebounding, and rim protection that Williams provides that has been vital to their success.
Robert Williams with the chasedown obliteration ❌pic.twitter.com/dVrG9EajqU
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) April 29, 2021
The raw numbers also point to Williams as the better option for Boston against most teams.
Williams currently ranks inside the top ten in PER (Player Efficiency Rating) this season. By comparison, the only other Celtics players are Tatum in 31st and Brown in 50th. Williams also ranks inside the top ten in offensive rebounding rate and ranks third in the league in terms of true shooting percentage. One other notable ranking lists Williams 14th overall in Value Added. Thompson, meanwhile, ranks 49th in the league in that same category.
Williams and Thompson are neck-and-neck in many of these other statistical categories but Williams has the slight edge in all of them. Overall he has been much more efficient despite playing fewer minutes on average. His versatility and athleticism are valuable skillsets that Thompson simply cannot match at this stage of his career.
In a starting role, Williams has produced some impressive numbers. As a member of the starting rotation, Williams averages 10.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists and two blocks per game while shooting 69 percent from the floor. Most importantly, the Celtics have a 9-1 record when Williams starts.
Williams nearly averaged a double-double in March and started April on a tear as well. He posted 20 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists against the Houston Rockets, followed by a solid performance of 16 points and 8 rebounds versus the Charlotte Hornets. He missed a handful of games with soreness in his left knee but has since returned to the lineup.
#Celtics are 3-3 after losing Robert Williams. They went 8-2 in his 10 starts.
— Bobby Manning (@RealBobManning) April 25, 2021
The brief absence of Williams opened the door back up for Thompson, who has played better over the past two weeks. His movement on the floor and his production on it have improved, but his real value for Boston is his size. The Celtics will need his interior defense to match up with MVP candidate Joel Embiid in a potential playoff matchup. Williams is the better option against most teams but he has not shown the ability to slow down the Philadelphia 76ers’ star big man.
Another important attribute that Thompson brings to the table for this team is championship pedigree. Winning a title with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Thompson adds some valuable championship experience to a young team that sorely lacks it. He is the only player on Boston’s roster that has even played in the NBA Finals.
The fact is that while Williams and Thompson share some similarities, these are two vastly different players on the court. That should bode well for Stevens, as he can throw another wrinkle into the opponent’s game plan. He can also play to his strengths, which is something that is often overlooked in coaching.
While there may not be a clear and obvious choice to their center position right now, they don’t necessarily need to have one. What they have been doing is working, and appears to finally have them headed in the right direction. They are far from the top tier in the East, but then again so too are the other 11 teams.