So, this is what the wasteland is like, huh?
During 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road, the titular character – aimlessly stuck in the barren desert sands and forever shooing his inner-demons – makes the best of a terrible situation. In short, Max helps others in need, survives a horrific storm and then releases the floodgates, thus giving the people what they want: Conten…err, water. Our hero gives them water. Yep, definitely water.
It’s been 13 days since the last NBA game. That’s the type of non-action that onlookers have bitterly accepted to be the case in mid-August’s post-free agent landscape and pre-training camp lull. And although the world is dealing with a much more serious issue at hand, it’s been even harder to do so without everybody’s favorite distraction. Hell, without the daily action and locker room availability, Basketball Insiders’ Trending Now column is conspicuously empty and the Slack channel has ground to a halt.
But with no clear end date in sight, a portion of our small team has decided to blow the dust from our bones and resurrect the fountain of professional basketball content. In doing so, we’ll simply do our best. We’ll do our April content plan in March and schedule our May series pieces for April. We’ll tackle draft content whenever a draft happens – whether that’s in June or July or, like, 2021. We’ll throw out all the rules in hopes of providing that slight at-home itch-scratcher, something to satiate you while trying not to click over to Twitter.com again and read more debilitatingly upsetting updates for the 954th time before noon.
We’re no Max Rockatansky; nor are we Furiosa, either. All of us, whether we realize it or not, are just different versions of Nux. Chasing our next high of basketball euphoria – a silly article, narrating your own mixtape, taking to Instagram Live with a beloved teammate, rapping because there are no games to cover, whatever it may take – just to get through another day without the real thing.
So, with all that said: Hello, let’s get to that thinly-veined metaphor of content as water and wade through this oasis side-by-side.
Over the following week, Basketball Insiders will go toe-to-toe with 2020’s free-agent class. While there’s no guarantee that the season will resume soon, once it does, there will be chatter almost immediately. By division, we’ll check out presumed free agents of all varieties – restricted, unrestricted, with options, etc. – and wonder just how the dominos might fall. These may not even become definitive Top 8 lists by skill alone, but instead sorted by those with the most interesting situations.
For the Northwest Division, three of the four franchises are in the thick of the home-court advantage chase, while those pesky Portland Trail Blazers just won’t go away. Karl-Anthony Towns finally got his wish in D’Angelo Russell, but the Minnesota Timberwolves are closer to the conference-worst Warriors than the final postseason seed, so that’s not exactly optimistic-adjacent, either.
Their upcoming class of free agents is not spectacularly insane by any means – nor is there a showstopper or hotshot offer sheet to be made. Truly, the biggest decision money-wise will be made by a player that many have already left behind, a fringe Hall-of-Fame candidate that was supposed to push his team up and over the top…
The Classy Veterans
Mike Conley Jr., Utah Jazz – Early Termination Option – $32,511,624
Given Utah’s rollercoaster ride of a campaign, Conley has taken the brunt of that criticism and it’s not difficult to see why. It’s the 32-year-old’s first season outside of Memphis and his numbers are down across the board and dealt with a lingering injury to make matters even worse. But for Conley to rip up the richest final season of a contract that once made him the highest-paid player in the NBA back in 2016, he’d need millions upon millions of reasons why.
(Al Horford just made a similar decision, you’d scream from the rooftops; worse: you’re right!)
On the open market – and without a wildly-prohibitive contract, importantly – there’s no reason to believe that Conley is done just yet. If the Jazz want to remain in that dark horse Western Conference race, they’ll need the point guard to be himself – and, in all likelihood, this is a relationship that’ll last on until 2022.
Paul Millsap, Denver Nuggets – Unrestricted – $32,511,624
Also falling into the stalwart-veteran-turned-cap-space-sponge-but-intriguing-on-the-open-market category is Millsap, the Nuggets’ starting power forward that hasn’t stopped doing the little things right. At 35, the best days are behind Millsap, but he’s still contributing in ways that have helped Denver stay within reach of a top postseason seed. Still, at just 12 points per game — his lowest tally since 2009-10 — coupled with the franchise’s need to add another star to the mix, he’s not a must-sign anymore. With Nikola Jokic developing into one of the league’s best centers and Michael Porter Jr. finally looking for more consistent minutes, paying Millsap will be far from an offseason priority.
He’s undeniably well-loved within the locker room, so a team-friendly deal would benefit both sides – but seeing Millsap as a deep bench piece on a bonafide contender sounds like captivating television as well.
The… “Uh, What Are We Calling You?” Category
Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trail Blazers – Unrestricted – $2,159,029
So, you’ve probably heard by now, but Anthony is back…and honestly, he’s held his own. After being unceremoniously ousted from the NBA for over a year, the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer has provided a serious punch to Portland’s attack. At 15.3 points per game, it’s not Anthony’s most prolific performance – again, this is a man that won a scoring title and rocks All-Star appearances in the double-digits – but it should be enough to secure him another gig in 2020-21. Anthony, 35, won’t win you a ring, nor is he anywhere close to being “the missing piece” or third wheel as many that are stuck in 2005 would like to believe.
And yet, why not? Why not put Carmelo Anthony on your squad for a minimum if it’s a fringe franchise case-by-case? Sacramento Kings? Sign him up. Orlando Magic? Let’s get to work. A retirement tour for Anthony, who grew up in Baltimore, would be a dose of fresh air for a Washington Wizards team that needs any sort of silver lining these days. At worst, this lightning-in-a-bottle fizzes out and any hit on the cap will be easily navigated. At best, he’ll end up as the second-best player on the roster behind RJ Barrett.
What’s to truly lose?
Hassan Whiteside, Portland Trail Blazers – Unrestricted – $27,093,018
Undeniably, his origin story remains great as a second-rounder turned G League graduate turned multi-year millionaire – however, somewhere along the way, the narrative turned sour. Between the poor free throwing shooting and suspect effort, Whiteside, in spite of his stat-packing performances, became this weird entity of box score bliss. Even today, the 7-foot center is enjoying averages of 16.3 points (second-highest of his career), 14.2 rebounds (career-high) and 3.1 blocks (shockingly not a career-high but is today’s league leader) per game and there’s zero buzz about his impending free agency.
With the center, it’s always been about finding the right fit or coach and, at 30, his best days are likely behind him. Given the Trail Blazers’ unexpected woes, we’ve not heard about Whiteside much outside of recent comments asking for consideration in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. When the season kicks back up, the talented Whiteside will likely cede minutes to Jusuf Nurkic, a big man that is signed to a long-term deal. For Whiteside, much of his future depends on how the remainder of 2020 shakes out – but has he done enough to change the tides?
The Serviceable Section
Mason Plumlee, Denver Nuggets – Unrestricted – $14,041,096
Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz – Unrestricted – $13,437,500
Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder – Unrestricted – $10,740,740
All three have proven to be worthy-rotation pieces in the past: Plumlee as a capable passer and rim-runner, Clarkson as a microwave scorer and Roberson as the potential-laden defensive stalwart. All three, too, might be paid less as free agents this offseason.
Plumlee, 30, was tossed behind an emerging Jokic in 2016-17 and has since struggled to break out from that role – but he’s still shooting 61.7 percent from the floor this season and knows his limits. As an energy guy, he could remain in Denver and his average status across the board makes him an adequate, affordable solution for franchises filling out a depth chart.
Clarkson, 27, hasn’t always been on top, but he certainly helped resurrect Utah’s half-sunken ship earlier this season. Since the red-hot shooter arrived from Cleveland in December, he’s single-handedly saved the Jazz on multiple occasions. As a fine enough three-point shooter and consistent scorer, Clarkson is somebody that Utah would like to keep, but that might prove difficult given roster hurdles. But for a bench unit that has desperately needed the 6-foot-4 guard’s scoring punch, the conference contender ultimately may not have much choice.
The road for Roberson has been the most challenging of all, but not without plenty of promise. In Jan. 2018, the standout defensive player ruptured his left patellar tendon and missed the remainder of the year. Following setback after setback, Roberson still has yet to feature in another NBA game. Unbelievably, that makes him one of the most intriguing free agents in the entire class.
During an incredible breakout campaign, Roberson reached the NBA All-Defensive Second Team, mentioned alongside names like Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Throughout that 2016-17 season, Roberson was one of 11 players to finish with at least a block and steal per game. So if the 28-year-old is half the defender he used to be, he’ll be a steal in free agency – whether that’s in Oklahoma City again or elsewhere.
The Danilo Gallinari Category
Danilo Gallinari, Oklahoma City Thunder – Unrestricted – $22,615,559
The esteemed Danilo Gallinari Category only features Danilo Gallinari – go figure, right?
After entering the 2019-20 season as for-sure trade bait on a likely-to-be-bad Thunder roster that had just lost Paul George and Russell Westbrook, Gallinari has strongly spotlighted on the league’s biggest surprise team. In fact, despite his status as an unrestricted free agent barrelling down the pipeline, Oklahoma City decided to hold onto the Italian-born veteran to keep their dazzling postseason chase alive.
At the time of the season’s suspension, the Thunder were 40-24, a league-best 8-2 in their last 10 games and proud owners of the No. 5 postseason seed. Without question, Gallinari is a major reason why, and keeping him was worth the risk – even if he ends up leaving for nothing.
He’ll be 32 whenever the next campaign begins, and although he’s a talented scorer, a spotted injury history doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Since he was drafted in 2008, Gallinari has played 70 or more games just twice (2009-10, 2012-13) and struggles to get back on the court once he’s initially hurt. In any case, after all these years, he’s posted back-to-back career seasons – one with the Los Angeles Clippers, then this campaign for Oklahoma City.
At 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.1 three-pointers on 41 percent from deep, he’s been an excellent fit with Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schröder and Steven Adams – and that very five-man lineup sports the best offensive rating by a considerable amount.
It’s hard to tell what will become of this once-makeshift Thunder roster when the offseason finally commences: Will they let Gallinari walk? Will Oklahoma City try to trade Paul again? What about Adams? For a franchise that was ready to reach the bottom of the barrel in their first-ever rebuild following that long-ago move from Seattle, this is uncharted territory.
If a return to the Thunder doesn’t pan out, Gallinari will have suitors – at the trade deadline the Miami HEAT aggressively pursued him, reportedly. And even if he doesn’t pull down another whopping $22.6 million per year deal again, Gallinari’s ability to space the floor and work as a secondary playmaker makes sense for most, if not all, of the usual suspects.
With basketball nowhere closer to resuming, and much of the collective public close to losing their minds, try to use Basketball Insiders’ coverage to your advantage. Whether as a simple distraction, a way to supply staff-meeting-at-the-virtual-water-cooler fodder or just as another reminder to go watch Mad Max: Fury Road again, we’ve got you covered.
We are all but hopelessly-optimistic Nuxs and this sand-filled, dunk-absent landscape feels a little less empty with some content — so, please, dig in.
The X-Factors: Portland
Spencer Davies continues Basketball Insiders’ “X-Factor” series by looking at potential game-changers for the Portland Trail Blazers when the NBA returns.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
That’s probably an appropriate way to characterize the steam that’s been picking up over the last week regarding the eventual return of the NBA. What the plan exactly will be is yet to be determined, but there are potential scenarios surfacing left and right. And with the NHL officially having a resumption blueprint set in stone, we’re probably not too far away from learning The Association’s fate.
In an effort to prepare ourselves for that day, Basketball Insiders has begun an x-factor series for each team around the current playoff picture. Basically, “if this happens…” or “what if this player is healthy?” type of scenarios are what we’re looking at. Ben Nadeau kicked us off Tuesday with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans. Today, we’re going to look at the Portland Trail Blazers, who are in a similar situation out in the Western Conference.
Scratching and clawing for that final seed to make the postseason for the seventh straight season, the Blazers have work to do at 29-37. They’re going to need help in the standings race with several other squads surrounding them chasing after the same thing. Along with the Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, Portland is 3.5 games back of the West’s eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Even the San Antonio Spurs are hanging by a thread with their playoff streak in jeopardy with a four-game hole in the standings.
We can technically call this our first dependent situation. There is going to be a ton of schedule watching around these five teams. It’s all contingent on the NBA’s decision about how to go about a return — a 72-game benchmark, a play-in tournament, straight to the postseason, etc. Who’s going to have an easier schedule? Who’s going to have more games to play and increase their chances?
For example, the Blazers could have six games left to play to make up that gap on the Grizzlies, a team that was next up on their list in a pivotal head-to-head scenario. The Spurs, however, would have nine games to try and right the ship — by far the highest amount of contests in comparison to the four others they’re fighting against. None of this is concrete because we don’t know what solution the league is going to agree upon; that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t come to mind as a hypothetical.
Then, there’s that Damian Lillard guy. You know, the dude that is Portland’s franchise. The man that went on a mid-January to early February eight-game run where he absurdly averaged over 45 points, 9.6 assists and 5.5 rebounds, while nailing 53 percent of both his field goals and three-balls. He averaged 40 minutes in this stretch, quite literally putting the team on his back to keep pace with the surging Grizzlies.
Lillard’s publicly come out and said flat-out that if the league elects to go with the benchmark idea, he wouldn’t participate. He’d gladly support his teammates and join them, just not on the court for games. Speaking with Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, the All-Star point guard expressed his desire for a tournament-style setup where there are playoff implications on the line. Suiting up to satisfy certain criteria with no incentive isn’t his preferred method of return. He wants to compete and, considering the effect of rustiness and other unknowns that could play a factor in these hypothetical matchups, Lillard would love for Portland to be the group that knocks others out unexpectedly.
Let’s not forget that the Blazers could have two starting-caliber players back that would’ve made their return from injury at some point this past March, either. Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins have their own specific capabilities that can dramatically improve what the team’s been missing since the beginning of the year.
Nurkic is an outstanding interior presence that brings physicality and finishing ability, as well as a big body to secure rebounds and dare opponents to come into the paint. This is no knock on Hassan Whiteside, who has arguably had the best season of his career as a blocking and boarding machine. It’s more about the lack of depth behind him, which is where Nurkic can step right in without Portland losing its reliability at the five. It’s been a revolving door at backup center for the Blazers, which has allowed the opposition to attack at will and get easy buckets. Nurkic’s return will shut that right off, as well as give the second unit a reliable scoring option.
Collins, his frontcourt partner, was supposed to have a breakout campaign in store for the league. Instead, the athletic third-year big man suffered a dislocated left shoulder just three games into the season. While it has sidelined him since then, he was targeting March as a return target. Obviously, with the league suspending operations, that didn’t happen as planned. But with the calendar turning to June in less than a week, and with his optimism shining through his rehab, it’s probably OK to assume Collins is close to being in the clear for a comeback.
Collins brings things to the table that neither Nurkic nor Whiteside does — an ability to stretch the floor being the most obvious skill that stands out. He can knock down triples at a decent rate and, more importantly, create space for Lillard and CJ McCollum to operate. The 6-foot-11 power forward has quicker foot speed than the other bigs Portland has, too.
Though the Blazers should be plenty excited about Nurkic and Collins’ impending return, they also have to be realistic about how much those two will play. We already mentioned Collins’ shoulder dislocation, but Nurkic hasn’t been on the floor since Mar. 25 of last year. Terry Stotts and his coaching staff will have to pay close attention to each of their minutes. How that whole situation is handled will be crucial to ensure there’s no long-term damage done for any party.
Just like the rest of their competition, the Blazers will have to also monitor how their older veterans handle ramping things back up again. Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza are both in their mid-30s and have taken on a heavy minute load. They are starters who average over 30 minutes per game that just abruptly stopped playing for months. It isn’t going to be easy on anybody, but the younger players can probably recover and restart easier than those seasoned vets.
Gary Trent Jr. and Anfernee Simons are likely to come out of this hiatus with the most energy out of anybody simply because they’re the youngest guys on the team. We all know how hungry the dynamic duo of Lillard and McCollum is going to be. It’s exciting to think about.
All we can do now is wait to find out what the next steps are toward a restart.
Luckily for us, that news might not be too far away.
The X-Factors: New Orleans
Ben Nadeau kicks off a new Basketball Insiders series by examining potential game-changers for when the NBA resumes play.
Basketball is back, baby.
Well, sorta. OK, actually, not really. But they’re talking about it. Finally.
Beyond that, they’re apparently making true, meaningful progress. And although the NBA is circling through potential scenarios — bubble games, re-seeding, ignoring conferences, etc. — there’s a very real chance that this shindig gets underway by mid-July.
To celebrate the re-arrival of actual talk and analysis, Basketball Insiders is kicking off its newest series — this time, one that focuses on a real-life hypothetical. The idea of an x-factor is inherently goofy, typically leading to sentences like: “Well, if Player Z hits 43 percent of his three-pointers, they’ll be tough to beat.” And, yeah, duh.
Given the sport-wide break, there are some perfectly valid questions to be asked. For example, with an extra two months off, where does Victor Oladipo’s health stand? If he’s fully healthy, the Indiana Pacers are going to be a whirlwind of a problem for their higher-seeded first-round matchup. Could the return of Jonathan Isaac to the Orlando Magic ensure their postseason place? And, finally, Kevin Durant – a decision that looms large over every other potential proceeding.
But that’s not why we’ve gathered at this particular URL right now – that would be to discuss the New Orleans Pelicans, a franchise that currently finds itself 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot. Naturally, any chance for success depends on the NBA ratifying a plan that behooves the Pelicans’ hopes. Whether that’s a return to the regular season or a totally-invented play-in series, it doesn’t matter as New Orleans needs some help outside of their own good fortunes.
Should they get the opportunity to control their own fate, there’d be plenty to research and anoint as a Holier Than Thou X-Factor. We could talk about J.J. Redick’s 45.2 percent mark from three-point range or how his 110 postseason games are 28 more than the rest of the roster combined.
Maybe there’d be a paragraph or two on Brandon Ingram’s steady ascent to stardom. Ingram’s post-Los Angeles quest to become a sure-fire No. 1 option has been a compelling narrative, but can he do it when the games matter most? Lonzo Ball, the playmaking point guard, knocked down 21 of his 36 attempts from deep over the final four Pelicans games — if that were a permanent level of consistency for the pass-first general, then that would change everything, too.
And Jrue Holiday, the remaining cornerstone following the departure of Anthony Davis, would get his first chance to anoint himself as a hero in the football-heavy city. Surely, if the Pelicans are to sneak into the altered postseason — and, dare we say it, make some noise — those would be important conditions to quantify.
Still, for all the positives, negatives and worthy storylines out there for New Orleans, not a single one matters as much as Zion Williamson does.
Since the 19-year-old phenom debuted on Jan. 22, the Pelicans went 11-9. It’s not a spectacular showing, but one dragged down by losses to the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers twice. Generally speaking, however, Williamson wasted no time acclimating to the NBA and the numbers speak for themselves: 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 56.9 percent shooting.
The highlights include the 35 points he hung on the Lakers and six other occasions of 25 or more in just 19 games. Moreover, Williamson has only scored under 20 points on three occasions and shot worse than 50 percent twice — once 8-for-18 (44) in the other showing versus Los Angeles and a tough 5-for-19 effort (26.3) against the league-leading Bucks. Of course, if they hobbled into the postseason, they’d have to play those very same Lakers over and over again.
Alas, the so-called chosen one will have his fair share of questions when the season resumes. Remember that 4-for-4 explosion against the San Antonio Spurs in his career debut? Well, he’s just 2-for-9 otherwise, often going entire games without even hoisting from long range. Williamson wasn’t supposed to enter professional basketball as a three-point marksman, but that epic – and believe us, we don’t use that word lightly – introduction might have skewed the outlook.
At Duke, Williamson went just 24-for-71 (33.8 percent) from deep and it’ll be a weak link that follows him – just as it does Ben Simmons – for the time being. Free throws weren’t expected to be a major, glaring issue either as he hit on 64 percent in college and, well, he’s right around the same mark currently. If you ignore 1-for-6 and 3-for-8 showings during a couple of double-digit victories versus the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, that number looks even better too.
But enough about the few cons – of which Williamson has certainly made a focus during his quarantine workouts – what’s the ceiling? And how much should we be pulling for a postseason debut here? In a crazy campaign like this, the added bonus of Williamson-made magic might be a thread worth pulling for – even at the rejection of a Ja Morant-led foray instead.
Needless to say, if the resumed regular scenario arrives and the Pelicans have just five or so attempts to make up a 3.5 game deficit in the standings, Williamson probably wouldn’t play at all. It’s also certainly possible that the rookie was just shaking off the rust before — just ask the aforementioned Oladipo. After taking an entire year to recover from a brutal ruptured tendon, the former All-Star only averaged 13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 39.1 percent shooting, all would-be career-lows.
Bet your bottom dollar, however, that with an extra 60 days of training at full speed under his belt, Oladipo will be closer to 100 percent than ever – a much-needed boost to an already well-rounded Pacers side. Could a trained-up Williamson provide the same type of edge? Upon his debut, one of the few worries that lingered – aside from re-injury – was about his perceived stamina and fatigue. Getting dropped into high-intensity workouts against adults twice your age is no joke, but try it after three months of rehab following a preseason meniscus tear.
With that context, the fact that Williams averaged 20-plus points on nearly 30 minutes per game is a superhero-level accomplishment.
At 37.2 percent, the Pelicans are the NBA’s fourth-best three-point shooting franchise – so even if Williamson doesn’t come back ready to unleash from deep, his team will be. On top of that, New Orleans’ 116.2 points per game are tied for fourth-best, too. Between Williamson, Holiday, Ball, Ingram and Redick, scoring appears to be the least of their issues headed into a restarted season.
But the defensive rating of 111.6 is a cause for concern, the second-worst standing of any team still within arm’s reach of the postseason (Portland, 113.6). Williamson has posted an encouraging mark of 103.1 on that end through 19 games, which also happens to be the highest mark of anybody employed by New Orleans right now.
In fact, Williamson’s multi-position defense and overall athleticism have already left quite the footprint. Since his debut in January, the Pelicans have posted a defensive rating of 109.2 – good enough for the No. 8 spot across the entire league. The Williamson Effect is here to stay and it’ll only improve as the roster meshes and the rookie acclimates even further – that seems to be a foregone conclusion.
If you thought Williamson was impressive coming off a serious injury with no stamina, his elevated play – whether in assumed individual efficiencies or overall team impact – could push the Pelicans into new territory. Elsewhere, there are aspects of New Orleans that deserve attention but none are as postseason-transforming as the second return of Williamson – let us just hope that the NBA provides a stage for the show.
Looking Back At The Draft: The No. 12 Picks
David Yapkowitz assesses the 12th picks made in recent NBA Drafts and identifies the hits, misses and everything in-between.
The further you get into the NBA draft, the harder it is to categorize hits and misses. There aren’t many expectations with later draft picks, especially in the second round. If a player ends up panning out, then great. If they don’t, it’s no big financial loss for the team and they can easily cut ties. When you’re still in the lottery, however, you probably expect a little more than just an average player. Superstars are never guaranteed, especially with late lottery selections. But you probably would expect to have a quality rotation player if not probable starter with a late lottery pick.
Here at Basketball Insiders, we’re continuing our look back at the draft, pick by pick, with each of the No. 12 picks going back the last 10 drafts. Let’s see how those picks have panned out.
Steven Adams – Oklahoma City Thunder – 2013
The OKC Thunder didn’t have a lottery pick in the 2013 draft, but they acquired it from the Houston Rockets as part of the James Harden trade. With Adams, the Thunder certainly hit the mark. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo (who 13 other teams in addition to the Thunder passed on) and Rudy Gobert are players picked after Adams who have fared better.
Adams has become one of the best defensive players and rebounders in the league as well as a great screen setter and roll man in the pick and roll. He plays his role to perfection and is a starting-caliber center. He may not have hit All-Star status, but he is a legit starter and with a lottery pick, that’s probably what you would expect.
Gerald Henderson – Charlotte Bobcats – 2009
I’m going with a hit on this one. Henderson played nearly all of his eight-year career with the Bobcats with the exception of his final two years with the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers respectively. He was unfortunately forced into early retirement due to nagging injury issues.
But for the eight years he was in the NBA, he was a capable scorer and mostly a starting-caliber wing player. As mentioned, with a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you should expect. Henderson averaged double-digits in scoring for most of his career and he shot in the mid-’40s from the field. If not for injuries, he probably would have played in the NBA for a few more years.
Xavier Henry – Memphis Grizzlies – 2010
Going back to the last ten drafts, Henry is the only player picked No. 12 that I would consider to be a miss thus far. He had some hype coming out of Kansas and was expected to be a first-round pick and NBA contributor. He didn’t play much as a rookie with the Grizzlies and was traded to the New Orleans Hornets.
He showed some brief flashes with the Hornets but never really was able to sustain any sort of consistent success. He got hurt during his stint with the Los Angeles Lakers and that pretty much ended his NBA career after five years. He’s had a couple of G League appearances since then but didn’t really show that he was ready for an NBA return.
The Middle of the Road
Taurean Prince – Atlanta Hawks – 2016
Again, for a late lottery pick, a starting-caliber player is what you expect your selection to develop into. Prince is here under the middle of the road rather than hits because it’s still too early in his career to determine if he is truly a full-time starter.
With the Hawks, he certainly looked the part. After a so-so rookie year, he stepped up in a big way, becoming a scorer and deadly three-point shooter with solid defensive capabilities. When he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets last summer, he was considered to be a big pick up. This season, although he started in 61 of the 64 games he suited up in Brooklyn, his shooting suffered and he wasn’t as effective as he had been in Atlanta. There is still time for him to be considered a hit though.
Jeremy Lamb – Houston Rockets – 2012
Lamb is another player who had some high expectations coming out of college but got off to a rocky start in the NBA. He showed some flashes in Oklahoma City but was wildly inconsistent. But like many players, a change of scenery seemed to be all he needed.
He broke out when he arrived in Charlotte, becoming a solid bench scoring threat and becoming more of a regular in the starting lineup as the years went on.
He rightfully earned himself a solid payday from the Indiana Pacers and he started 42 of the 46 games he played in. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a season-ending injury in February. The Pacers are hoping he can bounce back from that.
Luke Kennard – Detroit Pistons – 2017
Another player that is still a little early to categorize. For now, he appears to be a middle of the ground type player. This is only his third year in the NBA, and he’s shown improvement each year. This season was a breakout year for him.
Since coming to the league, he’s been a very good three-point shooter. This season he was knocking down 39.9 percent of his attempts. His scoring has gone up every season and this year he had broken through to double-digits. He has some injury concerns, and he was actually out when the NBA suspended the season. But if he can bounce back healthy, then he certainly looks like a solid pick at No. 12.
The Role Players
Trey Lyles – Utah Jazz – 2015
In a league where the game is changing and traditional big men aren’t as common as they used to be, Lyles fits right in. Lyles seemingly was another case of a player who needed a change of scenery to find his niche. He wasn’t able to stick in either Utah or Denver, and it wasn’t until this season, his first in San Antonio, that he looked like a capable role player.
Lyles became a regular starter for the Spurs, and again, that’s what you want from a lottery pick. He isn’t included in the hits yet because this is the first season out of his five that he’s shown this. He doesn’t have a big enough sample size. He shot a career-best 38.7 percent from three and if he keeps this up, he’ll be a good pick albeit a late bloomer.
Alec Burks – Utah Jazz – 2011
Burks once looked like he was going to become more than just a solid NBA player. He might have had borderline All-Star potential. At least a starting-caliber shooting guard. But unfortunately for him, his career was seemingly derailed by early injuries.
He has since bounced back though. He’s reinvented himself as a scoring threat off the bench. He put up a career-high 16.1 points per game with the Golden State Warriors in the first half of the season. On a playoff team though, he’s a second unit player and that’s exactly what the 76ers were hoping for when they traded for him. He only had 11 games in Philly before the season was halted, but he’s done well to change his game and be effective despite major injuries.
Too Early to Tell
Dario Saric – Orlando Magic – 2014
I’m introducing a new category here, the too early to tell group. These players either don’t have a big enough sample size, or they have had circumstances that may have hindered their abilities. Saric falls into the latter part of that. He’s been a solid starting stretch-four when he’s gotten consistent playing time. But he struggled to adapt to being thrown around in different roles and inconsistent minutes with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns. He’s a pending restricted free agent who might not figure to be in the Suns future plans. Quite a few teams should consider throwing an offer his way.
Miles Bridges – Charlotte Bobcats – 2018
It’s a bit too early to make any major assessments on Bridges. This is only his second year in the NBA, a season that has been cut short. He mostly came off the bench as a rookie and had a pretty solid year with some aspects he could certainly improve upon. He looked much improved this season albeit some areas he could still work on.
He became a regular starting small forward for the Bobcats this season. He upped his scoring and rebounding and he’s often asked to guard multiple positions. He’s young and has a lot of room to improve. I don’t quite feel comfortable yet placing him in one of the above categories so that’s why he’s too early to tell. The future does look good for him though.
The later you go in the draft, the fewer expectations you put on the player you drafted. Franchise level players are not common, there are only a handful in the league. But at least with first-rounders, and especially a lottery pick, you’d expect to get at least a quality rotation player.
Judging by the production of the all the No. 12 picks for the past ten years, it’s safe to say that they all have, or look like they will pan out in some capacity. Only one of them is a sure-fire miss.