NCAAB

College Basketball: #22 Virginia At #23 Memphis Odds, Predictions, And Best Bets

Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Updated18 hours ago on May 01, 2024

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Our last college hoop picks went 2-0, let’s get another one tonight!

They say that styles make fights and we have two contrasting styles in this top-25 matchup tonight. UVA loves to defend and loves to make teams work on the offensive end. They can also shoot it from deep. Memphis wants to get the ball in the hands of their PG Javon Quinerly and run. They like to keep the pace high as they rank 19th in pace nationally. So who gets to play their style of basketball tonight? The team that controls the pace will win this game.

#22 Virginia (9-1) @ #25 Memphis (8-2) | ESPN2 | 7:00 pm |

The Virginia Cavaliers (9-1; 6-4-0 ATS) are set to face the Memphis Tigers (8-2; 5-5-0 ATS) on the court for the first time since 2014. Unlike their last encounter in Virginia, this time, the game takes place at Memphis’ FedEx Forum. Despite an unexpectedly close call with a 56-54 win over Northeastern, Virginia is prepared for their first away game of the season, buoyed by Reece Beekman’s impressive 21-point performance, including the game-winning shot with just 5.1 seconds remaining.

Virginia’s defensive prowess has been the cornerstone of their success, allowing the second-fewest points per game nationally at 53.3. KenPom ranks the Cavaliers’ defense as the second-best in the country, trailing only Houston. Notably, they limit opponents to 35.9% shooting (3rd in the nation) and 26.1% on three-pointers (7th), showcasing their defensive fortitude. Despite their deliberate pace, Virginia manages to force an impressive 14.4 turnovers per game. The turnover area is one where UVA really flexes over Memphis who struggled to force turnovers, even for a team that likes to play at a hectic pace.

On the other side, Memphis enters the game with an unblemished home record, securing a 79-77 victory over the then #13 Clemson Tigers on Saturday. David Jones, who scored 22 points in that game, has been a key contributor, averaging 23.8 points per game at FedExForum this season. Guiding an offense that operates at the nation’s 19th-fastest tempo, Memphis scores an average of 79.6 points per game, aided by a 45.5% shooting accuracy and a 73.1% free throw success rate on 22.7 attempts. They love to get the ball in the trusted hands of Javon Quinerly and let him run. And so far this season he’s been an excellent decision maker averaging 4.5 assists to just 1.5 turnovers per game.

Which Style Wins Out?

Not only does this come down to contrasting styles, but this is also a spot play tonight. Memphis comes in off one of their biggest non-conference regular season wins in the last few years after beating #13 Clemson. Virginia comes in off a forgetful performance at home where they narrowly escaped Northeastern with a 2-point victory.

I think UVA does a great job of controlling the pace. I also think Memphis will struggle a bit in the half-court as the majority of their offense is generated through iso ball, pick and rolls, and pick and pops. UVA just knows how to defend teams that don’t get into a ton of sets and love to create via one-on-one. I look at this total and just can’t help but think it screams a slowed-down UVA pace. Gimme the Whoos.