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2014 NBA Draft: Vasa Micic and Dario Saric Scouting Reports

Nate Duncan continues his breakdown of 2014 NBA Draft prospects with Vasilije Micic and Dario Saric after seeing them recently overseas.

Nate Duncan

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Today we look at two European 2014 draft prospects I saw during my recent European trip, Vasilije Micic and Dario Saric.  This continues a series of scouting reports that began with Noah Vonleh and will continue with some other select prospects leading up to the draft.  Although there will not be time to go in-depth on every prospect, the goal will be to assemble a top-10 “big board” of the best prospects, plus other potential sleepers and busts.

Vasilije Micic

The 6’6 Serbian point guard’s game starts with his passing.  If he is drafted and plays in the NBA next year, Micic will be one of the 15 most creative passers in the league immediately.  Micic is a master on the pick-and-roll and in transition.  He has a rare talent for getting his own players open with pass fakes that bend the defense away from his intended target.  Another strong point is his ability to pass off the dribble with both hands. The righty even throws Diaw/Ginobili style hook passes with his left out of the post or along the baseline on occasion.  At 6’6, he can see over the defense and could develop a reliable post game in time, as he already weighs a solid 202 pounds.

Equally noteworthy is Micic’s handle.  Although he struggled on occasion with the overinflated balls at the adidas Eurocamp, the speed of his dribble is nearly unique for a European player.  His dribbling style evokes a younger Deron Williams (he of course lacks that kind of athleticism) with his yo-yo in-and-out dribble, crossover and spin moves.  The speed with which he dribbles helps his passing too; if he recognizes an open man off the bounce he can react faster because the ball returns to his hand so quickly.

Shooting isn’t a strength at the moment, but it looks like it could become so in time. His form is solid, and he has the athleticism to stop his momentum and rise up off the dribble when the opposition goes under the pick-and-roll. His shot looked just fine in Treviso, as he showed the ability to isolate against smaller defenders and spin back for 15 footers over his right shoulder or get to the basket.  And he managed 4-6 on NBA threes against the overwhelmed USA high schoolers on Day 2, although that shooting performance was nearly akin to shooting in an empty gym as that group hadn’t a prayer on defense.* He started the season with his Serbian club team Mega Vizura on fire from the three-point line, but cratered to under 30 percent as the season went on.

*Micic lit up the US U-19 team in Prague last summer. It was no surprise to see him decimate this U-18 US squad with him a year older and the opposition a year or two younger.

The decline in shooting as the year went on illustrated a potential weakness: his stamina.  After dominating early on the first day at the Eurocamp, Micic really struggled as the day went on. He looked exhausted at times, turning the ball over and getting lit up on D as his spirit seemed to wane.  That dovetailed with occasional frustration with some teammates who did not share his basketball IQ to produce a mediocre performance the first day.*

*He did not play on Day 3.

Micic’s health is also a worry. He tore his ACL in 2011, and has also missed time with various ailments such as a recent broken hand.  His defense at the point guard position is also going to be a concern.  He is 6’6 and has decent quickness, although that is more in a straight line than in the short, choppy side to side steps needed defensively.  Micic possesses a relatively well-muscled body by the standards of a 20 year old European, but could certainly benefit from getting stronger.  He also is not the most explosive finisher at the rim, although he did shoot a very encouraging 54 percent on twos this year. When he gets to the rim the defense is often in a compromised position as a result of one of his fakes, allowing him finish at a high rate. But available statistical translations peg him about where he is projected, as an early-to-mid second rounder.

I think he is considerably better than his projected range. Micic’s passing is superior to any other point guard prospect in this draft.  Although it is possible he may not quite be able to hack it athletically, he is no slower than someone like Jose Calderon or Steve Blake.  If he can get by on D, his skill level could make him an average starting point guard.  Indeed, the more open NBA game and athletic finishers at his disposal could really facilitate his game.

The health and athleticism risks are certainly there for Micic, but I think he has the third-highest upside of any point guard in this draft behind Marcus Smart and Dante Exum.  That would at least merit a pick in the first round.

Dario Saric

This year’s scouting field trip from the adidas Eurocamp was to the Croatian capital of Zagreb, about four hours from Treviso.*  A gaggle of NBA scouts and a few intrepid journalists made the trip for Game 2 of the Croatian league finals, a Zagreb derby between Jusuf Nurkic’s Cedevita and Dario Saric’s homestanding Cibona.  Cibona is Drazen Petrovic’s former squad, and the game took place on the 21st anniversary of the sharpshooter’s death.

*By the way, if you’re ever driving on a Slovenian highway, make sure you stop at a gas station and pick up a 15 Euro vignete toll tag.  Yes, there is no sign for it. Just trust me.

The game was also played two nights after the air conditioner went out in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and it was immediately clear why the Spurs’ European players professed to have no problem with the heat in San Antonio.  The conditions the players’ association decried as “unacceptable” are standard in Europe, as the temperature inside Petrovic Basketball Hall was at least 30 Celsius (86 Fahrenheit).  Cedevita and Nurkic managed to pull away down the stretch for a 69-61 victory that all but clinched the series for them, quite an accomplishment over a Cibona team that had won the Adriatic league behind the Saric’s heroics.

Saric had wowed this year as MVP of the Adriatic league at age 20. Unfortunately, this was not Saric’s best game. Foul trouble, overall fatigue, and the oppressive heat limited him to 17 points on 3-14 shooting, 10-15 from the line.  While it is unfair to judge Saric on his worst game in a while, his performance reinforced many of the doubts I have about him at the NBA level.

At 6’10, 223 lbs, Saric does it all for Cibona from the four position.  He loves to grab and go and is a terror at the Adriatic league level* in transition with his excellent Eurostep and passing vision.  He runs pick-and-roll and also posts up smaller defenders on the box.  He finds the open man well when the defense rotates, although his passes generally do not wow.  Saric also deserves credit for his toughness; the game saw a cheap shot each time down the court, and Saric did not back down and even went on the offensive at times.

*Cedevita are no slouches, featuring former NBA player Nolan Smith, NBA draftee Tomas Zubcic, former Michigan State Spartan and NBA draftee Goran Suton, and Nurkic.

The problem with Saric is what exactly he will do at the NBA level?  The issues start with his physical profile, which compares to Hedo Turkoglu. He is 6’10, but has a small 6’10 wingspan for his height.  Despite playing inside defensively, he blocked only 0.6 shots per game against less athletic opponents than he will face in the NBA.  Although he rebounds well at the Adriatic League level while playing inside, he likely will be below average for the four due to his below average two-foot jump and skinny frame. Even if he bulks up a little it is hard to imagine him being anything better than a bad help defender, rebounder and post defender at the NBA level if asked to play inside.  He might be hideable on the wing against lesser options, but playing him at the three mutes his effect on offense.

So Saric already comes with defensive demerits.  What is the offensive upside? With a mediocre (though not bad) shot that takes him an hour to get off, he really needs the ball in his hands to be effective unless he can significantly improve his J. In the Adriatic league he has the quickness advantage playing the four, although he was effectively limited when guarded by Cedevita’s relatively mobile bigs. Any quickness advantage disappears if he plays on the wing in the NBA. Although he could potentially be effective posting up some threes, that would require a commitment to getting him the ball regularly.  With many teams playing two other post players and other offensive mouths that need to be fed, expecting Saric to get a steady diet of postups is unrealistic.  Similarly, most teams are going to have better pick-and-roll options than him, although if he improves his shooting enough he might have value as a weakside player who can also put the ball on the floor and run a secondary pick-and-roll.

Available statistical translations are not particularly high on Saric, putting him in the mid-first round at best. If those models were more optimistic that his great Adriatic league performance would better translate, then it would be easier to dismiss the concerns raised by the eye test. Turkoglu represents Saric’s upside, and only if he can develop the Turk’s ability to shoot from NBA range off the pick-and-roll.  Otherwise, his NBA role is unclear due to his weaknesses off the ball.  As we get into the mid-to-late teens Saric may start to make sense, but he is not worthy of a top-10 pick to these eyes despite his great success in the Adriatic league.

Nate Duncan is an NBA analyst and attorney. He writes regular features for Basketball Insiders and chats weekly at 11 Eastern on Tuesdays.

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Mock Drafts

NBA Daily: The Top of The 2018 Draft Is Getting Crowded

The top of the projected 2018 NBA Draft is starting to get interesting, mainly because so many potential draft prospects are having incredibly dominant seasons.

Steve Kyler

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Things Are Getting Interesting

While the projected 2018 NBA Draft class doesn’t seem to have a future superstar sitting at the top of the board, there are potentially four players that are really looking the part of future NBA All-Stars and it’s making the top of the class very interesting.

Say what you want about stats, but there is little doubt that the numbers some of the top prospects are posting so far this season are pretty compelling.

Duke’s Marvin Bagley III is averaging 21.1 points per game to go with 10.9 rebounds. His 61.7 percent field goal average is impressive, especially when you consider he’s knocking in 34.6% of his three (9-26 on the season). Bagley has a 32.2 PER with a 64.6 True Shooting percentage and a 26.7 usage rate. In short, highly productive almost everywhere without having to own the basketball.

Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton is posting similarly ridiculous numbers, 19.5 points per game with 11.4 rebounds. His 61.7 percent from the field also comes with an impressive 30.4 percent three-point average (7-23 on the season). Ayton’s 32.3 PER is a nose higher than Bagley. He is also posting a whopping 65.6 True Shooting percentage with a 26.7 percentage usage rate. Again, highly productive in every way without being so ball-dominant to skew the numbers. Ayton hit the ground running at Arizona and really hasn’t had a bad game yet.

Oklahoma’s Trae Young has burst into the top-five discussion in a huge way. His 6’2 180-pound frame looks small on the court, but his game has been tremendous. Young is posting 28.7 points per game with a monster 10.4 assists per contest. He is grabbing 3.5 rebounds while shooting 48.5 percent from the field, 57.1 percent from two-point range and a scorching 41.1 percent from three (44 of 107 on the season). Young’s 38 PER is tops in all of college basketball. He has a 65.2 True Shooting percentage and a 36.1 usage rate. Unlike Bagley and Ayton, Young does control the ball, but that’s typical for an impact scoring point guard. He offsets the ball dominance with incredible assist numbers. He is also pretty spectacular to watch.

International phenom Luka Dončić is having a solid season in his own right, although his averages are lower because he doesn’t play the same volume of minutes as the NCAA collegiate prospects. In 26 games in both the Euroleague and the ACB, Dončić is posting 16.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per contest. He is shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from international three (48 of 135 on the season). Dončić is posting a 28.2 PER in Euroleague play and a 23.7 PER in ACB play. Dončić’s True Shooting numbers in Euroleague play are impressive at 66.2 percent. In ACB play his number drop a bit to 58.1 percent. His usage numbers illustrate the same slip. In Euroleague play, he posts a 30 percent usage rate while posting a 26.6 percent usage rate in ACB. Dončić typically plays more minutes and a larger role in Euroleague play. Hence the stat shift. If you haven’t seen him play, he’s so instinctual and gifted it easy to see why many see him as the top pick.

There are some compelling storylines to watch towards the top of the NBA draft board, which is likely why so many NBA executives seem split on who they would peg as the top talent in the projected 2018 Draft class.

So, with that out the way, lets jump into the latest first-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft:

Here are some of the pick swaps and how they landed where they are currently projected:

The Philadelphia 76ers are owed the LA Lakers’ 2018 Draft pick, unprotected, as a result of the 2012 Steve Nash trade with the Suns. The Suns traded that pick to the 76ers as part of the Michael Carter-Williams three-team trade with the Milwaukee in 2015. The 76ers traded that pick to the Boston Celtics as part of the draft pick trade that became Markelle Fultz before the draft; it has 2 through 5 protections and based on the standings today would convey to Boston.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets’ first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this past summer. The Brooklyn Nets traded several unprotected picks to Boston as part of the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce trades in 2015.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would not convey.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Jazz/Wolves Ricky Rubio trade this past summer. The Jazz acquired the pick as part of the Thunder’s deal to obtain Enes Kanter in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves’ first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors’ first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets’ first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out the Basketball Insiders’ Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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Mock Drafts

NBA Daily: Another 2018 NBA Mock Draft – 12/13/17

Basketball Insiders’ publisher Steve Kyler drops his latest 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Steve Kyler

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A little less than a month ago we dropped the first 2018 NBA Mock Draft, which was met with a lot of disdain. Which is often a good thing because it sparks the discussion in NBA circles.

Since that Mock dropped, we’ve seen a bit more play out of some of the top prospects and many of the assumptions made almost a month ago are starting to settle into place a little more clearly.

The prevailing thought from NBA scouts and executives is that the possible 2018 NBA Draft class has a lot more questions than answers. The common view is that outside of the top 3 or 4 players there could be a very wide range on who the next 10-12 players will be; so expect for the second tier to evolve a lot over the course of the college basketball season.

A couple of things have started to surface among NBA scouts and executives, there seem to be three camps emerging around the top overall player – Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and international phenom Luka Dončić, seem to be the leading names mentioned most, with Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton making a strong push into the discussion. We can safely call this a three-horse race at this point.

The prevailing belief is that none of the three is far and away better than the other as a professional prospect, making it more likely than not that the top player selected will have a lot more to do with which team ultimately lands the pick, more so than the player themselves.

This class also seems to be brimming with promising athletic point guards, which unlike last year’s draft, could provide a lot of options for teams still trying to find that impact point guard.

There also looks to be 27 players in the projected top 100 that are 6’10 or bigger, eight of which project in the top 30. To put that into perspective, there were 11 players 6’10 or bigger drafted in the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft, and 17 total in the 60 2017 NBA Draft selections.

As we get into the 2018 calendar year, we’ll start to do deeper dives into the tiers of players and their possible NBA strengths and weakness.

So, with all of that in mind, here is the second 2018 first-round NBA Mock Draft.

Here are some of the pick swaps and how they landed where they are currently projected:

The Philadelphia 76ers are owed the LA Lakers 2018 Draft pick, unprotected, as a result of the 2012 Steve Nash trade with the Suns. The Suns traded that pick to the 76ers as part of the Michael Carter-Williams three-team trade with the Milwaukee in 2015.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this past summer.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Ricky Rubio trade this summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would not convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would not convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out the Basketball Insiders’ Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

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Mock Drafts

NBA AM: The First 2018 NBA Mock Draft

With College Basketball getting underway and things starting to get interesting in the standings of the NBA, what better time to drop a 2018 Mock Draft than on Thanksgiving.

Steve Kyler

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The Thanksgiving 2018 NBA Mock Draft

With College Basketball getting underway and things starting to get interesting in the standings of the NBA, what better time to drop a 2018 Mock Draft than on Thanksgiving.

So with that in mind here is my first Mock Draft of the 2018 Season, look for more of these are we march on (and hopefully you like the new Mock Draft table design.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are owed the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as a result of the Kyrie Irving trade this summer.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Miami HEAT’s first-round pick as part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, it is top-seven protected and would convey to Phoenix based on the current standings.

The Phoenix Suns are owed the Milwaukee Bucks first-round pick as part of the Eric Bledsoe trade. The pick only conveys if the Bucks pick lands between the 11th and 16th pick, which based on the standings today would convey.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are owed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s first-round pick as part of the Ricky Rubio trade this summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick as part of the Adreian Payne trade in 2015. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Brooklyn Nets are owed the Toronto Raptors first round pick as part of the DeMarre Carroll salary dump trade this past summer. The pick is lottery protected and based on the current standings would convey.

The Atlanta Hawks are owed the Houston Rockets first round pick as part of a three-team deal with the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets involving Danilo Gallinari and taking back Jamal Crawford and Diamond Stone. The pick is top-three protected and based on the current standings would convey.

Check out our Top 100 NBA Draft Prospects http://www.basketballinsiders.com/top-100-nba-draft-prospects/

More Twitter: Make sure you are following all of our guys on Twitter to ensure you are getting the very latest from our team: @stevekylerNBA, @MikeAScotto, @LangGreene, @EricPincus, @joelbrigham, @TommyBeer, @MokeHamilton , @jblancartenba, @Ben_Dowsett, @SpinDavies, @BuddyGrizzard, @JamesB_NBA, @DennisChambers_, and @Ben__Nadeau .

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