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NBA AM: New York May Exceed Expectations

The Knicks look good out of the gate. Can they keep this up and exceed expectations this year?

Alex Kennedy

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New York Knicks May Exceed Expectations

The New York Knicks are currently 2-1, with wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and Washington Wizards – two teams that were expected to contend in the Eastern Conference. After an offseason in which many people laughed at the Knicks and criticized the organization for missing on marquee free agents, New York has stormed out of the gate and looks much better than last year’s squad that won an Eastern-Conference-worst 17 games.

After New York’s win over Washington on Saturday, All-Star point guard John Wall pointed out that the 2015-16 Knicks are playing much better this year in large part thanks to their new-look offense.

“They are not running the same offense as last year,” Wall said of the Knicks. “They added some more pace to their game, they run a lot more pick-and-rolls and put us in tough situations where we had to rotate and they were getting offensive rebounds and put-backs.”

CarmeloAnthonyInsideOnlyKnicks1Another big difference is the play of Carmelo Anthony, who’s back to full strength after spending much of last year banged up before a season-ending knee surgery ended his campaign after 40 games. However, this year, Anthony looks like himself and has been effective scoring the ball.

In the win over Washington, Anthony had an incredibly efficient 37 points (on 11-18 shooting from the field, 4-5 shooting from three-point range and 11-12 shooting from the free throw line) along with seven rebounds, four assists and one block.

On the season, the 31-year-old forward has averaged 24.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, four assists and 1.3 steals. While his shooting percentages could use a boost, his percentages against the Wizards suggest that Anthony is getting more comfortable, forcing fewer shots and making a conscious effort to score within the flow of the Knicks’ offense.

Head coach Derek Fisher raved about Anthony’s recent scoring outburst as well as his ability to make his teammates better.

“He was really good,” Fisher said of Anthony. “There was a composure and a poise to everything that he did. He got the shots that he wanted when he wanted them. He also made plays to make other people better. I thought his effort on the defensive end was really great. He led us in a lot of areas tonight.”

“I felt good,” Anthony said. “It’s just one of those days where even this morning at shootaround, I was feeling good. I worked out a little bit after shootaround. Things felt good before the game, things felt good. It’s just one of those days, and I’m just trying to take it day by day. Today was a day that I had that bounce. … I’m never surprised, but I’ll take it. I’ve been putting in the work for a long time so it was just a matter [of time until it came]. It came right now and hopefully I can keep it up.”

If Anthony can keep this up or even remain close to this level of production – mimicking his success from the 2012-13 season, when he was the NBA’s scoring champion (averaging 27.8 points) and led the Knicks to 54 wins – New York could be a team that surprises people in the wide open Eastern Conference.

After Anthony’s 37-point performance, the reaction from various Wizards players seemed to be, “What could we do when a superstar like ‘Melo is knocking down shots like that?” After all, Washington played solid defense for much of the night and tried to throw different looks at Anthony, but everything they tried against the eight-time All-Star failed to contain him.

“Once he gets in a rhythm, he is hard to defend,” Otto Porter Jr. said of Anthony. “We were trying to get different guys on him and get him off the spot. What more can you do but contest? We tried to make somebody else make a play, [but it didn’t work].”

“We were just trying to make him uncomfortable as much as possible,” Bradley Beal said of Anthony. “We made him force shots, made him take some tough ones, but he was 11-for-18, which is still a pretty good percentage. He was just too comfortable.”

“We had one guy that made tough shots,” Wall said of Anthony. “I think we could have done a better job of not giving up too many second-chance points, but we were doing our job. When he got hot, he got hot. When he gets hot, he makes tough shots. I think we were competing, but he just made some tough shots and some good shots. These guys are professional athletes just like we are; they work on their game to make shots down the stretch.”

If Anthony can return to form as one of the league’s elite scorers, that would obviously be huge for New York.

However, he can’t carry the Knicks by himself. He’ll need help, and that’s where newly-acquired veterans like Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo, Derrick Williams and Kyle O’Quinn will have to step up, along with first-round picks Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant. That supporting cast has played well early, which is why there is some optimism surrounding this Knicks squad.

DerrickWilliamsKnicksInsideOnly1So far, the play of Williams has been the most pleasant surprise for the Knicks. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2011 NBA Draft is on his third team in five years and many had written him off as a bust who failed to live up to his hype.

However, New York liked the 24-year-old’s game and upside, inking him to a two-year deal worth $10 million last summer. Early on, he has rewarded their faith in him by playing some of the best basketball of his career and seems to be rejuvenated in the Big Apple.

Williams was terrific during the preseason and then picked up right where he left off during the Knicks’ season opener against Milwaukee, contributing 24 points in 21 minutes (on 8-17 shooting from the field) as well as seven rebounds. Not to mention, New York was a +20 when he was on the court. He came back down to earth a bit in the Knicks’ last two games, but he has continued to provide energy, put up respectable numbers (totaling 16 points, three rebounds and two steals) and make positive plays that don’t show up on the stat sheet.

The fact that the Knicks are winning has helped Williams with his transition to New York. After all, he is used to losing many games, having spent the early parts of his career with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings. New York winning their first four preseason games and opening the regular season with two victories in three games has Williams and his teammates excited.

“It builds a lot of confidence and chemistry – that’s what you need,” Williams said. “You need wins. We’ve had some bad moments, but we [bring] it together. That’s what builds chemistry, getting out of holes and out of bad situations. Overall, we’ve played pretty well as a team.”

Williams has viewed his move to the Knicks as a positive change of scenery – a chance to prove that he’s not the draft bust he has been labeled throughout his first several years in the league. He knows that if he’s able to play well on this enormous stage, his critics will be silenced and his career will be just fine. When asked if this is a fresh start, Williams doesn’t hesitate to respond.

“Definitely,” Williams said. “When I met with Phil [Jackson], that’s all I needed, just that one meeting with him. He told me he wanted me on his team. That gives me a lot of confidence right there, when you have a team that really wants you and not necessarily just picks you.”

Williams is still getting acclimated to his new teammates, coaches, system and city among other things, but he says the adjustment hasn’t been too tough on him and he’s doing everything in his power to learn quickly and play to his full potential.

“It’s not difficult,” Williams said. “It’s just learning all the spots, just being out there on the court. Playing two to three different spots, that can take a toll on you. [I’m] just learning it, watching film. I think that’s the best way to learn.”

Coach Fisher has tried to get all of his new players on the same page in the early goings of the season. Looking back on last year’s dismal campaign – his first as an NBA head coach – Fisher believes a lot of the struggles and suffering that the team endured actually helped them prepare for this year.

“I think as difficult as last year was for us, a lot of what we are seeing this year still has to do with the foundation that was built during those difficulties last year,” Coach Fisher said. “The fact that we didn’t want to practice losing intentionally down the stretch of last season, and [instead we were] actually building a mindset that every time we step on the court and you wear a Knicks uniform, there is a certain way you are supposed to play.”

Slowly, that “Knicks way” has been put on display.

Their offense is almost unrecognizable. Last year, their offense ranked 29th in the NBA (scoring just 97.1 points per 100 possessions, behind only the dreadful Philadelphia 76ers) whereas this year they are ranked third in the NBA (scoring 107.4 points per 100 possessions, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors).

The team’s pace has also improved – from 28th in the NBA last year (93.7 points per 100 possessions) to 13th in the NBA this year (102.7 points per 100 possessions) – as Wall noted. The team’s defense still leaves a bit to be desired, but they’ve become a league-average team on that end of the floor, which is fine considering how well they’re scoring the ball.

Meanwhile, the players have noticed little things that have led to New York’s improvement.

Lopez praises the team for communicating much more on defense lately and holding each other accountable when mistakes are made. Anthony is trying to be more efficient and play within the flow of the offense as he scores the ball. Meanwhile, newcomers like Lopez, Williams, Grant, Porzingis and O’Quinn have made a big difference as well. Soon, Afflalo will make his presence felt as well once he returns from a hamstring injury.

The Knicks may not be able to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, which is actually pretty competitive (although nowhere near as brutal as the West).

Still, New York has made some solid improvements, added key contributors and put themselves in a position where they could exceed expectations this year. That’s progress and something Knicks fans should be pleased to see.

Alex Kennedy is the Managing Editor of Basketball Insiders and this is his 10th season covering the NBA. He is a member of the Professional Basketball Writers Association.

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NBA

NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong

Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.

Matt John

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It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.

Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.

Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.

1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.

A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.

Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part.  Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.

Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.

Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.

Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.

Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.

Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.

The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.

The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.

To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.

For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.

To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.

Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.

On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.

Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?

Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.

Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.

In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.

For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.

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NBA

Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards

Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.

David Yapkowitz

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We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.

With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.

The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.

Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old

Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.

He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.

Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.

Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old

Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.

He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.

Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.

Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old

Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.

He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.

One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.

Honorable Mentions:
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old

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NBA

Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards

Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.

Drew Maresca

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It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.

Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.

The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.

But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.

Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old

Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.

But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.

Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.

Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old

Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.

And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.

While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.

If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.

Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old

Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).

Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.

Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.

Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old

Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.

Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.

But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.

Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.

Honorable Mentions:

Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old

Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old

Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old

With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.

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