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NBA Daily: Analyzing First Returns Of All-Star Voting

This week, the NBA released the first returns for All-Star Game voting and, surprises aside, there are plenty of intriguing narratives to watch moving forward, writes Ben Nadeau.

Ben Nadeau

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On Thursday, the NBA released the first returns of voting for next month’s All-Star Game. Within the hour, people everywhere — both fans and media members alike — were sharing their thoughts. Of course, this is hardly a new phenomenon and, more often than not, the shakier results end up smoothing out by the final count. Still, there are some extremely interesting storylines and narratives to dig into, even if most of them won’t come to fruition come February. It’s early, no doubt — but that’s half the fun in revealing these numbers so far ahead of time.

If you need a refresher, through a combination of fan, player and media voting, five players from each conference will be chosen as starters. The remaining roster spots are then voted upon by the league’s head coaches. Ultimately, these fan votes will only account for 50 percent of a potential starter’s resume — so it’s pointless to get too wound up just yet. In any case, the early results give onlookers a healthy indication of where the pulse and lifeblood of the sport currently lies. So with that in mind, here’s what to watch out for as the voting steamrolls on toward the Jan. 21 deadline.

The Current Captains:

Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James

Last year, the NBA shook All-Star Weekend up by adopting a draft system — led during its inaugural attempt by Stephen Curry and LeBron James, two of the league’s most charismatic stars. The only problem? The league held that draft behind closed doors. This time around, however, everybody will get to see and react to the captain’s picks live. Beyond the potential for perfect television, it’ll offer a unique glance into the mind of two unarguable superstars as they mold their own versions of a juggernaut. When voting closes, the highest vote-getters from each conference will take the drafting reins and, as of now, those two captains would be James and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

While many will hope to see the Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid — the wise-cracking, social media superstar — making the choices on-air, it’d be difficult to find fault in putting these two in charge. James, who made waves this week by potentially declaring himself the greatest of all-time, crafted a salivating squad in Los Angeles in the draft debut that featured DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. As he looks to tie Bob Pettit and Kobe Bryant as the only players in NBA history with four All-Star MVPs, how could James possibly follow that success as a captain in year two?

Elsewhere, Antetokounmpo is clearly loved across the board — both domestically and internationally — and seeing the NBA’s next torchbearer in such a prominent position would only further his growing stature. Players like James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Irving could make a run at the respective crowns in remaining weeks, but it’d be a safe bet to start preparing for James and Antetokounmpo as the captains. In the end, those are win-win pair however you choose to slice it.

The Retirement Tour Stays Winning:

Dwyane Wade, Vince Carter

Heading into their twilight seasons — or what is assumed to be for Carter — it originally seemed unlikely that either of these former superstars would be notably involved in the proceedings. No matter what happens in the coming weeks, both Dwyane Wade and Vince Carter will appreciate the love from supporters nonetheless.

Although Wade has been a mid-season staple since he was drafted back in 2003, the last time Vince Carter finished in the top ten for his conference was 2010-11, when he was traded from Orlando to Pheonix in December. Carter has been chosen for the contest eight times in his illustrious career but not since 2007, so it’d be a fantastic send-off for the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. But at just 76,022 votes, Carter’s status here is a mere footnote as he’s already behind Kawhi Leonard by 700k and Giannis Antetokounmpo by nearly one million. Beyond that, the necessary player, media and or coach votes won’t be there for Carter either.

Wade, on the other hand, has a serious chance of turning his retirement tour into an instant classic. The Miami HEAT legend trails Kyrie Irving by about 500k votes but remains up on the Hornets’ Kemba Walker by a decent margin for backcourt votes in the conference. It’s hard to predict whether the other avenues of voting will reward Wade with the curtain call opportunity, but the 36-year-old is well-liked across the league. Wade is a 12-time All-Star selectee, but he hasn’t played in the exhibition classic in three years — so the magic of one final ride in Charlotte may too much for all parties involved to pass up.

The Warrior Fatigue Sets In:

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant

Nobody truly expects the back-to-back champions to slump through the Western Conference much longer, but the quartet of dominant Warriors isn’t leading the pack in votes as usual. Obviously, some of this can be chalked up to Curry’s time on the injured list and Draymond Green and Klay Thompson’s unexpected struggles, but perhaps some Warrior-related fatigue has finally set in for voters. Green finished as the conference’s second-best vote-getter in the frontcourt for 2017-18, only trailing Durant but beating out Paul George, Davis and Cousins. After the first round of results, Green is holding onto the top ten at all by a slim margin.

Thompson’s 247,618 votes are well off his 1.23 million total from last season as well. Durant and Curry are nearly impeachable in these popularity contests and both will end up as starters again anyway — but it’s worth noting that they may not reach voting highs from before either. Unfortunately for Green and Thompson competition for the reserve spots remains fierce and the Warriors’ non-historic rate of winning won’t be there to save them a spot this time around. Green and Thompson have both made the All-Star game in consecutive seasons and in three of the last four years — but those streaks are most certainly in jeopardy as things stand now.

The International Votes Remain Key:

Jeremy Lin, Derrick Rose, Luka Dončić

Over the years, some fairly consistent patterns have revealed themselves in All-Star Game voting. Superstars will always garner votes, even if they’re hurt — James, Curry, Harden. Then there are the fringe stars that will always dot the periphery, sometimes with an outside chance at snagging a coveted starting spot — for example, Damian Lillard, Cousins, Walker. After that, the list generally consists of exciting, potential-laden players that have little chance of making the cut, but their national recognition is often a step in the right direction — a group that includes Jayson Tatum, Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Devin Booker this season.

But every year, there are a few extra names that spark conversation and this campaign is no different. Entering the ring, last but not least, are your 2018-19 international favorites.

Jeremy Lin, the first American of Chinese or Taiwanese descent to play in the NBA, has always fared well in All-Star Game voting. Lin’s passionate fanbase, both in the states and abroad, have consistently kept the guard in the top ten for backcourt voting, no matter what conference he found himself in. After his popularity erupted in 2012, Lin has stayed in the top ten voting at his position — topping out at 883,809 in 2012-13, the third-highest mark for a guard in the West that season — in every season but last year. Traded to Atlanta during the offseason, Lin has played in a career-low 18.6 minutes per game over 33 games for the Hawks, but his return to the top ten backcourt vote-getters in the East also coincides with his comeback following 81 missed games with the Nets in 2017-18.

Next, there’s the complicated case of Derrick Rose, who appears as a man reborn in Minnesota. His off-the-court issues have raised some deserved red flags recently — but Rose may ride his fan- and media-given redemption arc to his first All-Star appearance since 2012. Naturally, Rose reaching the exhibition classic would be an undoubted success for his once all-but-dead basketball career. But it would also go down as another disappointing case study in rewarding an athlete with a spotty-at-best legal past. Of course, Rose’s current standing in the voting process absolutely has to do with his statistical resurgence (18.9 points, 4.8 assists), that’s without question, but the point guard also still remains massively popular in China.

In an offseason article by ESPN’s Nick DePaula from August, 70 percent of sales from Rose’s Adidas line of gear come from China. Despite the nearly career-ending lows, Rose’s jersey still frequently reached the top ten in sales there as well. That overseas love combined with the redemption narrative and his highest points per game average since 2011-12 has Rose in a surprising position for now. From here on out, Rose will have his hands full holding off Harden and Westbrook, but he’d still need a strong showing from the player and media voting to lock down a starting role. If he doesn’t, it’s tough to envision the coaches keeping him in the mix given the competitive, overfilled nature of the Western Conference player pool.

Finally, the league has been blessed with the breath of the fresh air that is Luka Dončić — everybody’s favorite rookie. Dončić, the super-refined 19-year-old, has taken the NBA by storm so far and the votes have quickly followed suit. After the first returns, Dončić is the Western Conference’s fourth-leading vote-getter, only trailing James, Curry and Rose. Dončić, Slovenian-born but loved in Spain (and all over the rest of Europe), was expected to do well in voting — but could anybody have reasonably seen this coming? There will be stiff competition for Dončić’s high-ranking spot in the coming weeks — notably Durant, Davis and George in particular — but it’s an incredible honor after just three months in the league.

Even with the ballooning number of fans behind him, the player and media votes might leave him out — if he misses out there, Dončić will need to hope that the coaches take him over plenty of more veteran-established options. In the event that Dončić misses out on the festivities as a rookie, he’s still averaging a stellar 19.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, five assists and 1.1 steals over 32 minutes per game.

He might not make the All-Star Game in 2018-19, but his potential here as a shoo-in for the next decade-plus seems almost certain.

Nevertheless, it remains incredibly early in All-Star Game voting and most of these narratives could be flipped on their head by the next time the returns are revealed. Still, it’s always interesting to see how things have panned out over the few months of the season. Whether that’s future Hall of Famers getting some well-deserved shine or impressive youngsters making their mid-season cases, the popularity contest always brings some exciting surprises along the way. But knowing the NBA, there’s still plenty of drama left to be had here before voting ends on Jan. 21 — so get to it!

Ben Nadeau is a Seattle-based writer in his third year with Basketball Insiders. For five seasons, he covered the Brooklyn Nets for The Brooklyn Game.

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NBA Daily: Ivica Zubac Rounding Into Form For Clippers

David Yapkowitz writes about Ivica Zubac and his strong bubble performances for the Los Angeles Clippers – is he the key for a deep postseason run?

David Yapkowitz

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The Los Angeles Clippers have no shortage of star power. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George form one of the most dangerous duos in the NBA, and both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are averaging close to 20 points a game each while coming off the bench.

But there is one player on the roster who might be the team’s X-Factor, one player who could hold the key to being able to withstand the imposing frontline of the Los Angeles Lakers – and that’s Ivica Zubac.

Zubac was once a Laker before he was casually tossed aside to the Clippers at last season’s trade deadline. He had shown flashes of his capabilities with the Lakers but spent most of his first couple of seasons in the league with the Lakers’ G League affiliate. Upon his arrival to the Clippers, he immediately became a key player and has since settled into the starting center role.

His arrival to the NBA’s restart bubble in Orlando was initially held up as he had tested positive for COVID-19. He has since joined the team after a mandatory quarantine period and is looking ready to help the team as they gear up for a playoff run.

He admitted that although he only experienced mild symptoms from the virus, he still felt winded and not quite up to speed as he tried to ease himself back into regular game flow.

“It’s much better, it’s much better than when I got here. I can feel it getting better with each practice, each game,” Zubac said on a recent conference call with media.

“After I first started getting back in shape, after I was cleared, I felt like I was out of shape. My chest was a little tighter when I would do some stuff. But I feel great right now. I don’t feel anything. I’m getting back into shape, I’m almost there. It’s going to take some more time.”

Zubac feeling like his old self again has been evident with each passing game. He started slow, only finishing with two points and three rebounds against the Lakers while being outworked by Anthony Davis. Against the New Orleans Pelicans, he looked a bit better, especially with his effort on the glass.

In the Clippers’ third game of the restart against the Phoenix Suns, Zubac put up 18 points and 12 rebounds while shooting 77 percent from the field. He followed that up with his best bubble game to date with 21 points on a perfect 10-for-10 shooting and 15 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks.

Zubac equated his increased production with gradually regaining his conditioning and mobility and getting the feel again for regular game speed.

“I’m getting the feel, I’m starting to remember what guys like, what are the best spots on the court for me. My conditioning is getting better each practice, each game,” Zubac told media after the Mavericks game. “I’m feeling like I can stay on the floor for a while, I can run the floor, I can fight in the post with guys, I can rebound. Everything with my conditioning getting back, I can get on another level in every aspect of my game.”

Before his performance against the Mavericks, Zubac had a pretty solid game against the Suns – but the center was obviously still readjusting to his teammates and being able to make the right reads and be in the correct spots on the floor. He played solid defense on Deandre Ayton, but he also ended up having a costly turnover late in the game that set up Devin Booker’s eventual game-winner.

Following the Suns game, Clippers head coach Doc Rivers had mentioned there were a few areas that Zubac could use improvement in, and he was much more effusive in his praise after his performance against the Mavericks.

“He was phenomenal. We talked about it, he did all the things we needed, he really ran the floor, that didn’t show up statistically, but what it did, it created space, it created mismatches,” Rivers told media after the game.

“I loved that our guys were looking for him. I thought his rebounding was fantastic. Really coming off the way we ended the game the other day with Zu, then coming back, playing like that, that was fantastic for his confidence.”

Throughout the season, Zubac has been a player that doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. He does have a soft touch around the rim and can establish a strong position in the post, but he does a lot of damage when he’s rolling to the rim, cutting and moving without the ball and catching lobs from his teammates.

He’s also a good rebounder who gets points off of offensive putbacks, and he’s a solid defender who acts as the team’s interior defensive anchor. He’s also usually on the bench at the end of games when Harrell is in with the starters. But depending on potential matchups, perhaps against the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic, or even the Lakers and Davis, Zubac could find himself finishing some games.

What is certain though, is he’s proving his importance to the team and he’s showing that come playoff time, he could end up being the X-factor. He knows that his teammates are going to look for him and he’s ready for that.

“It’s just communication on the floor, knowing what Kawhi and P.G like, knowing how to get a better angle on a screen, just the plays we run, got to have a better understanding what’s good at the time. It’s mostly communication on the floor,” Zubac said. “It feels great to get rewarded by my teammates after doing all the hard work.”

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Free Agency Update: Changes In The Bubble

Drew Maresca explores the free agency implications of the first week of play in the bubble as the NBA continues its return to post COVID-19 play.

Drew Maresca

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Free agency is always a fun time for the NBA and its fans, but particularly so in 2020. Most free agents have usually earned their next deal by the 65th game of any given season – but this year is far from typical. Instead, the NBA has returned, sans its eight worst teams, meaning that competition is consistently better. And with limited competition for our attention, every game is a major event that draws more eyes and has a greater effect on the paydays of to-be free agents.

We’re still only three or four games into the official return of the NBA, but there have already been some changes to how we perceive some players. Take T.J. Warren, for example, who’s averaging over 39.7 points per game through three contests. Or Michael Porter Jr., who looks more like the focal point of a team than a player in his first year of professional action.

This article will focus explicitly on the changes in perception of free agents to-be as a result of their play in the bubble in Orlando.  We understand that the players listed below can still hurt their standings and that teams rate free agents differently. While the sample size is small, we’ve seen deals made based on an equally small body of work (e.g., Jerome James to the New York Knicks).

One caveat to keep in mind is the unprecedented fiscal challenges facing the NBA and its club in 2020. Not only will the COVID-19 pandemic inevitably hurt the 2020-21 salary cap, but there’s also still a conclusion to be had with the preseason China situation.

With all of that in mind, let’s explore the players that have made the loudest cases for a payday come this offseason.

The Stars

Mike Conley Jr., Utah Jazz – Player Option

Conley Jr. has a player option for 2020-21 – but he played poorly enough through March, relative to what we’ve come to expect from him, that it was more than reasonable to assume he would opt-in at $34.5 million.

But wait, there’s a chance that Conley does us all a favor and makes free agency 2020 more interesting. Conley’s averaged 19.8 points and 5.8 assists per game, way, way up from 13.8 points and 4.3 assists per game prior to the stoppage in March. If Conley keeps this going – and especially if he performs well in the playoffs – he might want to test the market considering the lack of elite talent that’s anticipated to hit it – assuming he’s unhappy in Utah, that is.

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans – RFA

Ingram’s looked similar to the guy we saw in 2019-20 before the play stoppage – he’s averaging 23.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game when playing 30 or more minutes. While he was less effective in a loss against the Clippers (14 points and two rebounds in 24 minutes), he’s demonstrated growth in how decisively he makes his move and how seamlessly he then scores on the move.

Ingram was probably going to get max offer as of the All-Star break – especially after reaching his first All-Star team at 22 – but COVID-19 probably altered the ability for teams to dole out lucrative deals. But then play resumed and Ingram picked up right where he left off – and with a confidence to use it liberally. Ingram is nearly a lock for a max deal now.

Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors – UFA

VanVleet started off his time in the bubble with a solid performance (13 points and 11 assists), but he really showed out in his second game against the Miami HEAT. VanVleet led the Raptors to a win against Miami with a career-high 36 points. And then he got right back to being Mr. Consistent for Toronto by posting 21 points and 10 assists in a win against Orlando.

So ultimately, VanVleet has led the Raptors to a 3-0 (re)start, and he’s either scored a career-high or dropped 10-plus assists. James Dolan and Leon Rose are somewhere together – albeit socially distanced, we’re sure – drooling – as are all of the teams in need of a lead guard, like Detroit. VanVleet can only increase his value from here. He’s not assumed to be a max-level player, but if he plays well enough through the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see just how high he can reach.

 DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs – Player Option

It’s hard to imagine DeRozan’s value increasing much at this point in his career. After all, he’s an 11-year veteran that has been named to the All-Star Game four times and an All-NBA team twice.

But still, there’s always been presumed limitations to his game, namely his inability to shoot three-pointers. Since being traded to San Antonio, he’s fallen out of the national spotlight a bit. As a 31-year-old capable of reaching unrestricted free agency, DeRozan is at a major inflection point in his career. He could attempt to a final big deal or snag a smaller one if the market for his services doesn’t meet expectations. Or he could just opt-in.

But DeRozan has done his part to remind everyone that he has loads of high-quality basketball left in him. He tallied 30 points on 11-for-20 shooting on Tuesday in a close loss to the 76ers and he’s averaged 22.3 points, 7.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game since the Spurs resumed play last Friday. While those averaged mostly coincide with what he did this season, it also represents a decent boost in assists. But more importantly, it solidifies that DeRozan should still receive a serious look as a lead star. And he’ll probably get interest from a number of teams.

The Known Commodities

Marcus Morris Sr., Los Angeles Clippers – UFA

While Morris Sr. is a known commodity, teams could use additional poor performances against him in negotiations. He’ll probably still have the option to sign for a veterans minimum or mid-level exception with a contender like the Clippers or Lakers. But if he’s eyeing another payday that pays him an annual salary equal to what he made in 2019-20, it would behoove him to make his mark on the stat book. 

Making A Case

Trey Burke, Dallas Mavericks – UFA

Burke hasn’t been overly consistent since NBA play resumed last week. But he did have a huge breakout game against the Rockets, scoring 31 points on 8-for-10 for three-pointers in only 30 minutes, while also dishing six assists.

Yes, Burke is averaging just 5.5 points in 18 minutes in the two games since, but the fact that he scored 31 in an NBA game will be enough to get looks as an off-the-bench scorer. And it’s a narrative that can be supported by his past work, too. Remember, Burke is still just 27-years-old  and he has a 42-point career-high. He’s also exploded for 30 four times and eclipsed the 20-point mark on 38 occasions in his 389 career games. So even if it’s just a reminder, it’s good to know that Burke can still get it done offensively – and teams are always looking for ways to manufacture offense.

Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz – UFA

Clarkson’s shot only 40 percent from the field since play resumed last Thursday, with an even worse 20 percent from three-point range. Still, scorers are as valuable as ever. It’s what made J.R. Smith so much money in this league, as well as Lou Williams and countless others – and rightfully so. Ultimately, it’s about putting the ball in the hoop. And with that being said, a franchise is going to pay Clarkson and they’ll end up paying more than they would have as of March.

Reggie Jackson, Los Angeles Clippers – UFA

Jackson has less to prove than most guys in this part of this list – but given his injury history, he does have to make a statement.

On the whole, Jackson has looked good – but not necessarily great. He averaged 12.5 points, seven rebounds and two assists in his first two contests, but he regressed in the Clippers’ most recent game against the Suns. But on a positive note, Jackson received only 23 minutes on Tuesday versus Phoenix and his 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals accumulated in just 20 minutes.

If Jackson continues to be a contributor to the contending Clippers, someone will overspend on him. After all, good point guards are few and far between.

The Unknowns

Harry Giles III, Sacramento Kings – UFA

Giles III only played four minutes in the Kings’ first game back against the Spurs and he didn’t fare much better over 12:55 versus the Mavericks on Tuesday. But when you’re a fringe player that had injury concerns throughout your young career, any positive outings are good – especially those that come in a contract year. Giles tallied 23 points and eight rebounds in only 20 minutes against the Orlando Magic – a significant jump from his 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds averages this season.  And that’s probably enough to generate interest amongst a number of teams.

The Kings curiously declined Giles’ fourth-year option, making him an unrestricted free agent as of the end of this season. That’s an interesting decision because the option was relatively cheap given that he was only the No. 20 overall pick (2017). Further confusing matters is the idea that by passing on the fourth-year option, they also lost matching rights – so Giles won’t even be restricted.

To make matters worse, the Kings can’t even bid more than $3.9 million to retain his services. So the Kings ultimately wasted a first-round draft pick on Giles for a grand total of 14.5 minutes per game across 99 games – and he’ll walk before they even know what they had in him.

But this all works out nicely for Giles, who will absolutely get an opportunity elsewhere – and he’ll be paid more than he would have received in Sacramento for it. How good is still an unknown, but he’s shown enough for a team to take a flyer on considering his size, skill set and versatility. He was the No. 1 overall recruit coming out of high school according to ESPN just four short years ago.

Free agency is going to be different than ever before and, up until very recently, that was assumed to be a bad thing. But with some of the above players changing the narratives around them, it could become even more exciting than it’s been in the recent past. Add in the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, Davis Bertans, Christian Wood – and we’re looking at an under-appreciated free-agent class.

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NBA

NBA Daily: Breaking Down The Bubble’s Race For 8th

Ben Nadeau analyzes the race for the No. 8 and 9 spots in the Western Conference – who will make the cut?

Ben Nadeau

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As the NBA inched toward its inevitable rebirth, the instant drama surrounding the Western Conference’s No. 8 seed became a conversation wildfire.

Was the league rolling out the red carpet in hopes of a Zion Williamson-LeBron James showdown in the first round? Could the healthier Portland Trail Blazers make another historic run toward history? De’Aaron Fox, the Sacramento franchise cornerstone, took umbrage over a lack of Kings-related faith, while the Memphis Grizzlies had more than enough ground to protect their standing in the current hierarchy.

Three or so games in to our bubbled adventure, everything has changed – and fast.

The Pelicans, still worrisome over Williamson’s health and conditioning, played him about 15 minutes in each of their first two contests – coincidently, New Orleans went 0-2. With their backs against the wall and slowly losing traction in a muddied race, the Pelicans played the future superstar for 25 minutes, where he racked up 23 points, seven rebounds and used a personal 6-0 run to clinch a much-needed win. Not only did the victory signify an important swing in momentum for the veteran-laden squad, but it was another crushing defeat for Grizzlies, who fell to 0-3 and further loosened their once-gridlocked hold on the final playoff seed.

Long perceived to be a five-team fight for the right to face Memphis in the play-in game(s), the Grizzlies’ early struggles have now nearly opened both spots up. All the more interesting, the San Antonio Spurs have begun 2-1, alongside the Phoenix Suns’ 2-0 effort. Although invited without much media afterthought, both the Spurs and Suns – who boast two of the most reliable constants of the bunch, Gregg Popovich and Devin Booker, respectively – are within the four-game window needed to force a play-in too.

So then: Thanks to the Grizzlies’ scuffles, who’ll be the two franchises to reach that play-in showdown?

Let’s start with the Pelicans, a team that’ll be better the more Williamson is allowed on the floor, obviously. While that variable remains up in the air, New Orleans’ remaining schedule is not. They’ll finish with the Kings twice, plus winnable matchups against the Spurs, Wizards and Magic. Although that opening day loss versus Utah stings, there’s no shame in falling to the Clippers, so the opportunity is certainly still there for the Pelicans to reach Nos. 8 or 9 in the coming days.

The Spurs, following a hard-fought effort against Philadelphia on Monday, unfortunately, have a much harder path forward: Denver, Utah, New Orleans, Houston and Utah. No Magic, no Nets, no Kings, even. Just New Orleans and three teams currently fighting for ‘home court’ advantage in the first round. Of course, betting against Gregg Popovich is beyond stupid and that is a lesson some select few must re-learn every spring – but they still seem like the least likely of six to leapfrog into a spot.

Likewise, it isn’t much better for Phoenix. They’ll conclude with the Clippers, Indiana Pacers and T.J. Warren’s supernova act, Miami HEAT, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks. Thankfully, Mikal Bridges’ efforts in Orlando and Ricky Rubio’s trusty playmaking have served as great foils for Deandre Ayton and the aforementioned Booker. Overall, their offensive rating just cracks the top half (15th, 110.4) and their defense remains in the lower half – but stars win games and Booker fits the bill.

Even the Kings, losers to the Spurs and Magic to open their bubble campaign, get the Pelicans twice but also a downright bad Brooklyn Nets squad and a potentially-resting Los Angeles Lakers team in four of their final five games – so don’t count them out either. With their destiny firmly in hand, expect the Kings to make a run of their own. Fox put up 39 points against San Antonio before tallying just 13 versus Orlando – and, in the latter, Sacramento’s only scorer above 15 went to Harry Giles’ 23. Given the context and a very winnable schedule, the next week or so bodes well for the Kings’ hopes.

As for Portland, the squad with the most bankable 1-2 punch of the collection, have an impossibly-tough Rockets-Nuggets-Clippers-76ers run-in before ending with the Mavericks and Nets. Worse, that stretch of difficult opposition will come fast and furious – a classic three games in four days slog. But above all, their defense leaves too much to be desired, even with the return of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. Before the shutdown, Portland’s defense was only better than the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards at 113.6 in the ratings department.

In the two games back, well, it’s actually been even worse and their putrid 132.0 defensive rating is a whopping 7 points behind the Kings’ 29th-rated unit. It’s early and the sample size is certainly small – but with only six games left, they’ll need to figure it out in the against some of the league’s best. Still, Damian Lillard is a big-moment killer – he did, after all, break up the Thunder core on his own last April – and he’s capable of hot streaks that few others are.

Lillard and Nurkic put up 30 points apiece against Boston – plus 17 from CJ McCollum and 21 notched by Gary Trent Jr. – and totaled 124 as a team… yet it still wasn’t enough. The heroics of Portland’s stars will be relentless, but if they can’t stop the opposition – they’ll come up short.

In the end, even guessing at Nos. 8 and 9 is a fool’s errand. The Bubble has provided shock after shock already – and the added hurdle of rested players for locked-in seeds are soon to come – but six teams will be whittled down to two before long. Despite the slow start, Memphis remains in the driver’s seat – if they can pick up a win on Wednesday versus a seriously-slumping Jazz side, it’ll go a long way toward clinching their place.

And they’d better hope so: If they don’t, they’ll need to hope for some load management with the Thunder, Raptors, Celtics and Bucks to end the mini-campaign. It’s one of the tougher schedules left in the Western Conference, but their cushion, no matter how rapidly it is shrinking, is still reason to believe they’ll limp into the do-or-die scenario.

As for the second spot, it still feels like the Pelicans’ to lose. Between Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, JJ Redick, Brandon Ingram and, duh, Williamson, there’s too much firepower here to completely struggle through an easier-than-most schedule.

But, sure, bet against Gregg Popovich, Damian Lillard, De’Aaron Fox and Devin Booker at your own risk – conventional wisdom suggests that at least one of them will crash the party, no matter how unlikely it seems today.

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