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Ranking The Free Agents – Point Guards

There aren’t that many elite point guards available this summer, but the cap crunch should still make the market for them quite fascinating.

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Well hoop freaks, the NBA season is officially over. With the NBA Finals concluded and the draft coming up, there’s no hurt in taking an early look into the free agency period happening less than a month from now. Especially since this one is going to be a change of pace compared to the last two.

The new TV deal between the NBA and ABC led to an exponential rise in the league’s salary cap, as it went from $70.1 million to $94 million in the summer of 2016, then from $94 million to $99 million in 2017, which led to a whole lot of excess spending over the last two summers.

This summer, however, will not be the same. The salary cap rose to $101 million, which, combined with the amount of salary that teams already owe to their current rosters, means there’s not going to be many nine-figure salaries being tossed around willy-nilly this time.

Because of that, expect this free agency period to be the equivalent of a whiplash effect. There are going to be plenty of players who aren’t going to see the luxurious contract offers that they deserve. Not necessarily because they didn’t earn said contract, but because money is so tight that no one can offer the contract they want.

With money being so tight this summer, there’s going to be a lot of uncertainty surrounding the available free agents this summer, particularly with our first installment: Point guards.

This isn’t the strongest class of points guard available on the open market, but with the NBA’s current financial climate, no one can firmly grasp what kind of money these guards are going to make, with the exception being one particular guard from Houston, which makes it all the more fascinating.

A fair amount of these guys deserve more than the Mid-Level Exception, but they might have to settle for it. So, without further ado, here’s what the market looks like for point guards that will be available this summer.

Based on the $101 million projected salary cap, maximum salary amounts are expected to fall in these ranges:

$25,250,000 for players with 0-6 years of experience

$30,300,000 for players with 7-9 years of experience

$35,350,000 for players with 10+ years of experience

Max Guys/Near Max Guys

Chris Paul – Houston Rockets – Last Year’s Salary: $24,599,495

The Chris Paul experiment was a monumental success in Houston. Paul may have played just 58 games as a Rocket, but of those 58 games, the Rockets lost only eight of them. Paul’s role in the Rockets having their most successful playoff run since the days of Hakeem the Dream would make giving him the max a no-brainer.

Unfortunately, it’s precisely the injuries, along with his age, that makes Paul’s contract situation a little open to question. Even at 33, Paul still is one of the best floor generals in the game, but his persistent injuries at this point in his career make investing in him a risk.

Reportedly, Paul will not take a penny less than a max contract, which may make contract negotiations a little tough for the Rockets. General Manager Daryl Morey could meet Paul’s demands, but Paul’s health and age concerns could lead to a compromise between the two sides.

Houston is going for the hail mary this summer, as they hope to keep Paul and Clint Capela as well as bring in LeBron to form their own super team. No matter what the details of his next contract will be, it would be in the Rockets’ best interest to keep Paul, even if it means throwing caution to the wind.

Mid-Level Guys

Rajon Rondo – New Orleans Pelicans – Last Year’s Salary: $3,300,000

After bouncing around the league for the last four years, Rondo may have finally found a new home in New Orleans. Rondo’s comeback season, along with his reputation for stepping up in the playoffs, contributed to one of the NBA’s most pleasant surprises with the Pelicans.

Rondo should also expect a significant pay raise, as he was one of the NBA’s best bargains, but the drought in cap room makes it hard to envision eight figures in his next contract.

It’s hard to see New Orleans letting Rondo go after all he did for them, but their hands will already be tied with DeMarcus Cousins. Rondo may go to the highest bidder, but his best bet might be to stay with the Pelicans and roll the dice next summer.

Isaiah Thomas – Los Angeles Lakers – Last Year’s Salary: $6,261,395

This time last year, Thomas was advocating for a Brinks truck, but for now, he’ll have to settle for a compact pickup instead.

All that could have gone wrong for Thomas has gone wrong since being traded last summer. After flopping badly in Cleveland, Thomas revived himself a bit mid-season in Los Angeles only to opt for season-ending hip surgery.

Because Thomas’ value has cratered to where it is now, he won’t see any large long-term offers, so his best option would probably be to take a one- or two-year prove-it type deal.

Dante Exum* – Utah Jazz – Last Year’s Salary: $4,992,385

No one will be victimized in restricted free agency more than Exum. Since his very raw rookie season, Exum missed his second season because of an ACL tear, was put in the doghouse in his third season, then missed most of his fourth season with a shoulder injury.

Despite all that, Exum showed more and more flashes of the terrific and unique player many pegged him to be coming out of the 2014 draft since returning from his shoulder injury. He has a very limited sample size, but Exum is a versatile 6-foot-6 point guard who plays exceptional defense.

Something to keep in mind with Exum, along with some of his other fellow 2014 NBA draftees, is that because of the cap crunch, his best option might be to take the Qualifying Offer, then wait until next summer where he will be Unrestricted and there should be more available money.

Marcus Smart* – Boston Celtics – Last Year’s Salary: $4,538,020

Avery Bradley – Los Angeles Clippers – Last Year’s Salary: $8,808,989

Milos Teodosic – Los Angeles Clippers – Last Year’s Salary: $6,000,000

Darren Collison** – Indiana Pacers – Last Year’s Salary: $10,000,000

Austin Rivers – Los Angeles Clippers – Last Year’s Salary: $11,825,000

Elfrid Payton* – Phoenix Suns – Last Year’s Salary: $3,332,340

Patrick Beverley** – Los Angeles Clippers – Last Year’s Salary: $5,000,000

Fred VanVleet* – Toronto Raptors – Last Year’s Salary: $1,312,611

Mid-Level or Below Guys

Spencer Dinwiddie** – Brooklyn Nets – Last Year’s Salary: $1,524,305

Tony Parker – San Antonio Spurs – Last Year’s Salary: $15,453,126

Shabazz Napier* – Portland Trail Blazers – Last Year’s Salary: $2,361,360

Devin Harris – Denver Nuggets – Last Year’s Salary: $4,402,546

T.J. McConnell – Philadelphia 76ers – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Shelvin Mack** – Orlando Magic – Last Year’s Salary: $6,000,000

Seth Curry – Dallas Mavericks – Last Year’s Salary: $3,028,410

Derrick Rose – Minnesota Timberwolves – Last Year’s Salary: $290,951

Marquis Teague – Memphis Grizzlies – Last Year’s Salary: $83,129

Ty Lawson – Washington Wizards – Last Year’s Salary: $8,313

Mario Chalmers – Memphis Grizzlies – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Julyan Stone** – Charlotte Hornets – Last Year’s Salary $1,524,305

Trey Burke** – New York Knicks – Last Year’s Salary: $784,160

Raymond Felton – Oklahoma City Thunder – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Yogi Ferrell* – Dallas Mavericks – Last Year’s Salary: $1,312,611

Jarrett Jack – New York Knicks – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Brandon Jennings** – Milwaukee Bucks – Last Year’s Salary: $130,911

Jameer Nelson – Detroit Pistons – Last year’s Salary: $1,429,818

Jose Calderon – Cleveland Cavaliers – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Shane Larkin – Boston Celtics – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Michael Carter-Williams – Charlotte Hornets – Last Year’s Salary: $2,700,000

Dwight Buycks – Detroit Pistons – Last Year’s Salary: $748,160

Isaiah Canaan – Phoenix Suns – Last Year’s Salary: $997,547

Larry Drew II – New Orleans Pelicans – Last Year’s Salary: $74,159

Lorenzo Brown – Toronto Raptors – Last Year’s Salary: $16,626

Tyler Ennis – Los Angeles Lakers – Last Year’s Salary: $1,524,305

Tim Frazier – Washington Wizards – Last Year’s Salary: $2,000,000

David Stockton – Utah Jazz – Last Year’s Salary: $44,495

Joseph Young – Indiana Pacers – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Raul Neto – Utah Jazz – Last Year’s Salary: $1,471,382

Briante Weber – Memphis Grizzlies – Last Year’s Salary: $83,129

Malcolm Delaney* – Atlanta Hawks – Last year’s Salary: $2,500,000

Jonathan Gibson* – Boston Celtics – Last year’s Salary: $44,495

Isaiah Taylor** – Atlanta Hawks – Last Year’s Salary: $1,312,611

Andrew Harrison** – Memphis Grizzlies – Last Year’s Salary: $1,312,611

Wade Baldwin** – Portland Trail Blazers – Last Year’s Salary: $229,892

Tyler Ulis** – Phoenix Suns – Last Year’s Salary: $1,312,611

Kyle Collinsworth** – Dallas Mavericks – Last Year’s Salary: $290,304

Shaquille Harrison** – Phoenix Suns – Last Year’s Salary: $175,000

Josh Gray – Phoenix Suns – Last Year’s Salary: $46,080

Walter Lemon Jr. – New Orleans Pelicans – Last year’s Salary: $46,080

*Qualifying Offer (If made, player becomes restricted free agent)
**Non-Guaranteed Contract (If player is waived by current team before contract becomes fully guaranteed, becomes unrestricted free agent)

It is true that outside of Paul, there aren’t that many golden options out there as far as point guards go. However, the cap crunch has made it so that impactful players such as Rondo and Thomas could be had for much less than what they are worth.

Gentlemen, start your engines!

Matt John is a staff writer for Basketball Insiders. He is currently a Utah resident, but a Massachusetts native.

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