If you follow any NBA-related content on any social media platform and you haven’t seen Trae Young putting up buckets in a summer workout, you must be living under a rock.
This isn’t to say that Young hasn’t been hooping. He most certainly has and he looks poised to have a very solid sophomore campaign. But he’s just that: a sophomore. Arguably the best player on the Atlanta Hawks – John Collins – is only entering his third season. The supporting cast is rounded out by Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter, both rookies, Kevin Huerter, another sophomore, and veterans Chandler Parsons, Jabari Parker and Evan Turner.
Does this team look promising on paper? It certainly does. Do they have plenty of compelling names that jump off the pages? With the likes of Parker, Parsons, Young, etc., it’s easy to say so. But at its core, this is a roster that still needs time. They have intriguing talent that – if they can play as a unit – will equate to wins. But is it sustainable for an entire 82-game season?
The Hawks opened up at Caesars Sportsbook with a relatively high 36 wins for their over-under but, per Matt Moore of the Action Network, as of Tuesday morning they’ve dropped to 33 wins.
Still, 33 would be a marginal improvement compared to last year where they notched just 29 wins and finished 12th in the Eastern Conference.
Internal growth will have certainly been enough for the roster to improve in the wins column. But, apart from that, the Hawks didn’t substantially improve, deciding instead to focus on the development of their young core. In an offseason trade, Atlanta even lost Kent Bazemore, who was an important piece to its offensive unit – moving him to Portland for the aforementioned Evan Turner.
The trade never really made any sense, apart from giving Bazemore – the longest-tenured Hawk at the time of the trade – a chance to compete for a championship. Turner has a unique set of skills, particularly in the playmaking realm, but he’s a sub-30 percent career three-point shooter and will, more than likely, be a drain on Atlanta’s offense.
The upstart franchise was most certainly looking for point guard depth in the trade, so expect Turner to come off the bench and soak up minutes while Trae is resting.
Another move that could end up hurting Atlanta – at least this season – was trading Taurean Prince to the Nets for Allen Crabbe and draft assets. The move was clearly made to bolster their draft picks for both 2019 and 2020, but getting Crabbe in return wasn’t bad. The Nets liked the trade because it helped free up cap space for their two big free agent signings. Crabbe is a solid player, but he won’t provide nearly the same impact that Prince did. Prince has shot above 38 percent from three in his last two seasons and averaged over 13 points in 2018-19.
His offensive production will be missed, but his efficiency was often called into question. Atlanta made the move with draft picks in mind, so obviously they wanted to move on from Prince’s game.
Parker and Parsons both have the ability to come in right away and contribute offensively, but they’ve each had their respective struggles on defense, something noteworthy that Young too suffered with during the 2018-19 season. Parker is absolutely a player that can get a bucket, but his efficiency has come into question before – and he’s never quite gotten back to his No. 2 overall-worthy form since tearing his ACL for a second time.
Parker did average 14.5 points and 6.6 rebounds with an effective field goal percentage of 53.3 while playing for the Bulls and Wizards last season. These were his highest marks since the 2016-17 season and, actually, the best eFG% of Jabari’s career. Although the defense is still a huge issue, his addition offensively should help make up for what Atlanta lost with the Bazemore-Turner trade.
Parsons is another player who has struggled mightily with injuries. He is turning 31 years old at the beginning of the season and hasn’t eclipsed 36 games since 2015-16, never completing a full season either. Still, the last time he did play a healthy amount of games was for Dallas in 2015-16, in which Parsons averaged 13.7 points, on 41.4 percent from three-point land.
If Chandler can somehow stay healthy, he’ll contribute in a big way on offense as well. But staying healthy is the key for Parsons. He’s proven throughout his career that he can hoop but, as they say, the best kind of ability is availability.
Moving on to Atlanta’s young core, Young had a solid rookie-year outing. He averaged 19.1 points and 8.1 assists, but his efficiency was definitely called into question. Young had an effective field goal percentage of just 48 percent. Worse, his defense was practically morbid at times and boasted the second-worst defensive rating on the team at 114.8.
Understandably, defensive rating is a team statistic and the Hawks weren’t a good team last season – so to be fair, that number isn’t completely Young’s fault. But the fact that he’s the starting point guard and the future of the franchise, it’s not the start most would’ve liked to see. To wit, Young’s development did come a long way during the season as he was a -6.3 net rating pre-All Star break but a -0.4 post-break.
Acclimating to the league is never an easy task, and the fact that Young is considerably undersized doesn’t help. The bright spot, by a country mile, is that his offensive skills have translated almost seamlessly to the NBA and that is 100 percent why the Hawks drafted him.
In this writer’s opinion, Collins is the best player on the roster and there’s little reason to think he won’t be once again in 2019-20. He nearly averaged a double-double last season with 19.5 points and 9.8 boards. Additionally, Collins stretched the floor by shooting over 34 percent from three-point range with about three attempts per night. He’s a rather strong presence under the rim as well and can guard multiple positions along the perimeter.
But he’s still just entering his third season.
Huerter had a compelling rookie season, but he still needs to get his body NBA-ready. He’s not quite strong enough to be a solid defender and still struggles to create his own shot against above-average defenders. Overall, he’s likely to feature strongly in the Hawks’ offense moving forward – a veritable one-two punch alongside Young from deep.
Look, it’s this simple: The Atlanta Hawks really do have an exciting roster. It’s littered with young guys that own pizzazz and veterans that are highly-intriguing at this point in their respective careers. And yet. . . it’s far from a sure thing.
It’s easy to see why oddsmakers are backing off a bit on their initial early-season win projections. But if the Hawks can keep the core together and optimize their development, they could conceivably make the playoffs next season.
Even then, that’s a pretty big stretch.
Kyle Collinsworth In Familiar Territory
Kyle Collinsworth has been making his mark for the Salt Lake City Stars, which shouldn’t feel too different to him since he’s dominated in Utah basketball before. Matt John writes.
For Kyle Collinsworth, playing basketball in Utah is nothing out of the ordinary.
The 28-year-old grew up in Provo and went on to become one of the most storied basketball players in the history of Brigham Young University. Since graduating from BYU in 2016, he’s bounced around a bit in the NBA. He’s had stints with the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers and the Toronto Raptors. When the Utah Jazz added him this season to play for their G League Affiliate, the SLC Stars, Collinsworth was excited for home aspect alone.
“It’s always good to be home,” Collinsworth told Basketball Insiders. “My family’s here. My wife’s here. We’ve got a house here, so it’s just nice to be able to be home and do what I love at the same time. It’s the best of both worlds.”
Even though Collinsworth grew up and played college basketball in the mountainous region, he surprisingly didn’t grow up a Jazz fan. In fact, the team he grew up rooting for happened to be the only one that has given him legitimate NBA minutes in his professional basketball career — the Mavericks.
Going from a Mavericks fan to a Mavericks player was an experience Collinsworth truly treasured, especially since he got to play with his boyhood idol.
“It was incredible,” Collinsworth said. “Growing up, (we were) huge Mavericks fans. (With) Dirk being my favorite player, being teammates with him was surreal.”
In 2016, Collinsworth was brought in to play for the Mavericks’ G League affiliate, the Texas Legends, before being called up at various points to play for Dallas. In the 2017-2018 season, Collinsworth played 34 games in Dallas. Collinsworth didn’t mince words when praising the organization and how they’ve been able to get to where they are now.
“It’s just another testament of consistency. Those guys, day in and day out, bring the work, and that’s why they are champions,” Collinsworth said.
Following his stint with the Mavericks, Collinsworth is now back where it all began for him. However, it’s not just the Utah climate that he’s used to. He’s also pretty used to filling up the box score when he’s on the court.
Back when he played for the Cougars, he was renowned for his all-around game. In his four years in college, Collinsworth’s total points scored (1,707) placed him 11th all-time among BYU men’s basketball players, while his total rebounds (1,047) and total assists (703) placed him first. In fact, his 12 triple-doubles are the most any player in NCAA history has recorded over his collegiate career.
His game has continued to shine through in the G League this season. In the three games he’s played for the Stars, Collinsworth’s all-around game has shined for the team, as he’s averaged 12.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. Stars head coach Martin Schiller praised Collinsworth for what he brings to the floor.
“His all-around game, offensively and defensively, as well as leadership-wise, his game impacts the team a lot,” Schiller told Basketball Insiders.
With Collinsworth being the oldest player on the roster at 28 years old, his experience has made him quite the influence in the locker room, which has served very well for his younger teammates.
“It stabilizes us,” Schiller said. “The guys listen to him. The guys believe in him. He played legit NBA minutes, so the guys respect him and therefore it’s very important to have him.”
When the Stars faced the Rio Grande Valley Vipers on Friday night, they found themselves down by double digits in the second quarter. The Stars rallied back and were able to come up victorious for their first win of the season. SLC was never deterred even when the odds were stacked against them, which is exactly what Collinsworth has emphasized in the example he sets for his team.
“Just (be) Steady Eddie,” Collinsworth said. “Always bring the energy and just stay steady (because) there’s a lot of games…You have to keep your head up and stay positive, through the good games and the bad.”
Previous BYU alumni have opted to go different routes in their professional basketball careers. After failing to find a place in the NBA, Jimmer Fredette has gone on to become an icon for various leagues overseas. His former college teammate Brandon Davies has also played in various foreign professional basketball leagues.
Others have gone back and forth between the NBA and overseas. Eric Mika has played in several foreign leagues before signing with the Stockton Kings this season. For Collinsworth, his path has steadfastly remained the same in order for him to achieve his one goal — to play in the NBA.
“Back in the NBA is the goal for sure,” Collinsworth said. “That’s why I’m back in the G League. I’m trying to make that happen.”
Everyone has to pay their dues to make their dreams come true. For Kyle Collinsworth, that means showing Utah what he’s got in the G League.
It may not be ideal — but for him, at least it’s familiar terrain.
NBA Daily: Five Stats To Keep An Eye On Revisited
Before the season, Basketball Insiders identified five statistics that could be worth watching in the 2019-20 season. Quinn Davis revisits those five to see how they have looked over the season’s first month.
Before the season, Basketball Insiders pinpointed five statistics that could be worth watching in the 2019-20 season. These statistics each helped tell the story of last season and could be vital in determining the standings of the current campaign.
A month into the season, here’s an update on how those five statistics, and the impact they’ve had thus far.
Philadelphia 76ers — Forced Turnover Percentage
After starting the season 5-0, the Philadelphia 76ers fell a bit back down to earth and are now sitting at 8-5. Some of the regression can be blamed on a Joel Embiid suspension and a Ben Simmons shoulder sprain, but there have been some legitimate areas of concern over the last eight games.
Their defense, which was operating at an elite level during the first five games, has fallen now to a good-not-great 11th in the league. Interestingly, their forced turnover percentage has not been the culprit for the decline.
The 76ers are up to 11th in the league in forcing turnovers this season after finishing 28th in that category in 2018-19, per Cleaning the Glass. The new additions Josh Richardson and Matisse Thybulle, along with an increase in aggressiveness on that end from Simmons, have been in key in forcing loose balls and errant passes.
While this is encouraging, the increased aggressiveness may be a direct factor in one of their biggest flaws over the first 13 games. The 76ers are currently 29th in the league in opponent free throw rate, giving up 25.1 free throws per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
A high foul rate can be seen as a necessary risk for this 76ers team. An increase in turnovers could lead to more transition opportunities, which could help an offensively-challenged team generate more easy baskets.
So far, though, the risk has not been worth the reward. Despite going from 28th to 11th in forced turnover percentage, the 76ers efficiency and frequency in transition have remained relatively the same. They’ve generated transition opportunities off of 68.4 percent of their steals, just one percentage point higher than last season, per Cleaning the Glass. These opportunities have netted them an additional 1.7 points per 100 possessions, only slightly better than last season’s number of 1.6.
For Philadelphia to get back on track, something will have to change. Going forward, it will be important to see if the 76ers can keep up their rate of forcing turnovers while simultaneously reducing their foul rate and generating more transition plans.
Los Angeles Lakers — Half Court Efficiency
The Los Angeles Lakers have jumped out to an 11-2 record and sport the best net rating in the league. They have done so with a very impressive defense that ranks second in the NBA through the first month.
Meanwhile, their offense hasn’t lagged too far behind, as they rank 7th in the league on that side of the ball. Last season, the Lakers struggled offensively, particularly in the half-court where they were unable to consistently generate open looks.
They were a particularly bad shooting team in 2018-19, finishing last season with an overall three-point percentage of only 34 percent. The Lakers were expected to improve in that department this season with multiple shooters being brought into the fold.
But, while the team has taken a step offensively, it hasn’t been because of their shooting.
While Danny Green has been a marksman, shooting 42.2 percent from three, the rest of the Lakers’ roster has not been up to snuff. Overall, they sit at exactly the same percentage as last season when it comes to three-point shooting, 34 percent.
Their offense has been humming thanks to some old-fashioned domination around the rim. The Lakers are shooting 40.4 percent of their total shots at the rim and finishing 69.1 percent of those attempts, per Cleaning the Glass.
That kind of efficiency around the basket will mitigate any shooting concerns. But, if some of the Lakers’ role players can begin to hit their outside shots, the Los Angeles offense could prove even more imposing.
Denver Nuggets — Opponents’ Effective Field Goal Percentage
One of the harder to project statistics in the NBA is the opponents’ field goal percentage. This number can vary from year-to-year for no reason other than luck.
Last season the Nuggets improved their defense greatly and went from one of the worst units in the league to an average one. But, when digging into some of their numbers, it became clear that some of this may have been due to a lucky streak of opponent shooting, as the Nuggets gave up very similar looks to those they gave up in 2017-18, but opponents simply shot a worse percentage on these attempts.
This season, the Nuggets’ defense has improved even further. They are currently holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 49 percent, third in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Nuggets give a few too many threes, particularly from the corner, but opponents haven’t punished them as they’ve shot just 32 percent overall from three against Denver.
So, looking at the tracking data on NBA.com, it would appear as if some of that luck has carried over from last season. The Nuggets are giving up about the same number of wide-open three-point attempts as last season. On these attempts, opponents are shooting 37.1 percent, which is slightly under the 37.6 percent they managed last season.
That number is not extremely lucky, as 11 NBA teams have had better luck than Denver on wide-open shots this season. Where the Nuggets have gotten particularly good bounces, however, is on open shots, classified as those attempts when a defender 4-6 feet away. On these attempts, opponents are shooting just 26.5 percent, good for the second-lowest number in the league.
The Denver defense has certainly improved this season, but it’s unlikely they maintain their current pace in terms of opponent shooting.
Milwaukee Bucks — Offensive Rating without Giannis
One of the big reasons for the Milwaukee Bucks’ success last season was the performance of their bench. While Giannis Antetokounmpo was certainly the conductor of the team’s attack, the team fared very well when he hit the bench.
But, with the departure of Malcolm Brogdon, there were some who questioned how the team would perform without their MVP on the court. And, so far, it appears as if those reservations were valid, to a point.
This season, the Bucks have felt the loss of Brogdon quite a bit, but not in an overly drastic way. When Antetokounmpo is on the floor, the Bucks boast about a 112 offensive rating, compared to a 107 rating when he sits, per Cleaning the Glass.
Last season, the difference dropped about three points, from 116 when Antetokounmpo was on to 113 when he was off.
Milwaukee’s offense stayed at an elite level last year when Antetokounmpo sat on the back of impressive three-point shooting. But, this season, the Bucks have been getting up a similar number of attempts when he sits, but the shots have just haven’t fallen. From 2018-19 to 2019-20, the bench’s three-point percentage has dropped from 37.4 percent to 32.1 percent, per Cleaning the Glass.
While this is partially attributed to the loss of a 40 percent three-point shooter in Brogdon, the Bucks still have a plethora of solid shooters who should be able to hit more shots as the reigning MVP rests. As the season goes on, it wouldn’t be a shock to see these numbers level out in their favor.
Houston Rockets — Second Half Net Rating
After starting the season in a bit of a rut, the Houston Rockets have ripped off eight straight wins and have played about as well as many expected them to coming into the season. Like last year their success could be attributed mostly to a dominant James Harden, who’s averaged 40 points per game in that stretch.
Last season, the Rockets would often get out to a hot start, but struggle thereon and occasionally give up leads in the second half. The culprit of the second half malaise was theorized to be a tired Harden, given his gargantuan workload, or perhaps a predictable style of play that opponents would catch on and adjust to after a couple of quarters.
Whatever the reason, the addition of Russell Westbrook was to serve as a potential antidote. Last season, Westbrook’s Thunder excelled in the second half of games, as his seemingly boundless energy had a way of wearing opponents down as games went on.
And, in fact, the Rockets have proven much more assertive in second halves. They are currently sporting a 2.2 net rating in the first half, a number that has improved to 3.6 in the second, per NBA.com.
While Harden has continued to take a lion’s share of the work, Westbrook has added a transition threat to the Houston offense and has certainly played a key role in its improvement. If the Rockets can maintain this energy and efficiency throughout entire games, they could prove a major threat come April and May.
Those five statistics are just a few of the interesting trends and storylines to follow across an 82-game season. So, be sure to check back with Basketball Insiders to follow them along.
NBA Daily: Biggest Disappointments — Central Division
Basketball Insiders’ Biggest Disappointments series continues as Drew Mays explores the struggles of the Central Division.
Basketball Insiders has looked at some of the biggest surprises and disappointments to start the new season. And, now, four weeks in, the shift in perception from “The sample size is too small” to “Maybe this is just who this team is” has begun. While there is plenty of time left to justify the former, the latter has looked far more truthful for much of the disappointments in the NBA’s Central Division.
Confused in Chicago
The Chicago Bulls’ postseason hopes were widely known. And it wasn’t just speculation – the Bulls themselves talked playoffs from media day until the beginning of the season. But, sitting at 4-9, each passing game bears a striking resemblance to last year’s 22-60 team, one that was talented but unable to sustain any consistency.
The numbers paint Chicago’s struggles in an even more confusing light. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Bulls take a slightly above-average number of threes and have the most rim attempts in the league. They’ve shied away from the mid-range, while they get to the free throw line and turn the ball over at standard — not great but not terrible — rates. The offense must be clicking, right?
Wrong. Chicago sits at 28th in points per 100 possessions (they’re 14th in points per 100 defensively). Their half-court offense has been stagnant, with a lot of side-to-side action but nothing much in the way of getting to the basket. The league-high rim attempt percentage is clouded by poor decision-making in the paint, where the Bulls often force shots or flat-out miss kick out opportunities.
Lauri Markkanen, arguably Chicago’s most important player, has yet to get going. He’s averaging 14.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, but he’s shot just 37.7 percent from the field and 28.2 from deep. He’s scored over 20 points only once, on opening night in Charlotte.
There is reason for optimism. Markkanen is getting good looks; he should start hitting them eventually. Wendell Carter has been excellent in the middle. The Bulls’ shot chart lends itself to success. Outside of Milwaukee, the rest of the division is vulnerable. Chicago held their own against the Bucks and even the league-leading Lakers, controlling much of the game versus the latter. If not for some fourth quarter collapses, the Bulls might have a winning record.
There’s still time to turn it around. But thus far, 2019-20 has been a disappointment in Chicago.
The Last Two for Cleveland
The Cleveland Cavaliers are frisky!
They’ve beaten two division foes in Chicago and the Indiana Pacers, and they’ve held their own in games against the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics over the last two weeks.
Kevin Love and Tristian Thompson are both averaging double-doubles. Collin Sexton has upped his scoring and lowered his turnovers this season. Darius Garland has shown some serious flashes as a young rookie.
Defense is the toughest thing to learn in the NBA. Younger teams are usually really bad on defense – especially teams with a starting backcourt made up of a sophomore and a rookie. However, Cleveland has managed to remain in the middle of the pack on defense, ranking 15th in points allowed per 100 despite being in the bottom third in effective field goal percentage allowed.
They’re even 16th in the league in Basketball Reference’s adjusted net rating, which estimates a team’s point differential every 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent. There is a lot to be excited about for the future.
However, after defeating the Knicks and losing by one to the aforementioned 76ers, Cleveland was steamrolled in both first halves against the HEAT and the 76ers at home. They were outscored by 48 in the two halves, looked utterly outclassed and outmatched and, ultimately, lost by 11 and 19, respectively.
Growing pains were expected, especially for the young backcourt. And even after an encouraging start, two straight blowouts where the Cavaliers never had a chance is still disappointing.
The bad news with Cleveland is the same as the good news: they still have a lot of growing to do.
Detroit’s Free Fall
After starting off the season 4-5 (about what we’d expect from the perennially middling team), the Detroit Pistons have gone cold.
Their most recent loss was on Friday – Blake Griffin needed 19 shots to get to 19 points, Derrick Rose turned the ball over six times, and the Pistons fell 109-106 to Charlotte, dropping them to 4-9 on the year.
The disappointing thing for the Pistons has surprisingly been their defense. Detroit’s usual pattern has been to plod on offense and use their top-10 defense to put them in a position to win. But the script has flipped this year – Detroit ranks 9th in points per 100 possessions and 3rd in team effective field goal percentage, but they’re just 26th and 28th in those respective categories on defense.
Their biggest offensive struggle has been turnovers. Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, and Derrick Rose are averaging almost 12 per game between the three of them, leading to Detroit’s 28th ranked turnover percentage.
The other problem for Detroit is that they’ve faced a relatively easy schedule thus far. That SOS is middle of the pack the rest of the way. If they plan on returning to the postseason in 2020, they’ll need to end this losing streak sooner rather than later.
Khris Middleton’s Left Leg
Khris Middleton is out for the next several weeks after suffering a left thigh contusion November 10 in Oklahoma City. He was averaging 18.5 points and 5.3 rebounds on a career-best 59.9 true shooting percentage before the injury.
Milwaukee cruised to a 2-0 record last week without their second banana, defeating both Chicago and Indiana. The Bucks will have to navigate at least the rest of November with Giannis and Eric Bledsoe as the only real playmakers on the roster.
Luckily, they’re built for this – questions continue to surround Milwaukee as to whether Khris Middleton as the complement to Giannis is even enough to win the East – the bench will be able to fill in around Giannis. All of the wings will see increased minutes, and Bledsoe will be tasked with a higher usage rate.
Any time your second-best player goes down, it’s disappointing. But Milwaukee has the system in place to continue winning, even without Middleton.
Again, it’s still early for all of these teams. They have played just 13, 12, 13 and 12 games each. But as 13 moves towards 20 and 25 games in the coming weeks, these disappointments are no longer early struggles – they are identities, and what the team may be left with for the rest of the season.
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