Well, it’s been about two weeks and, when play opens up on November 11, most NBA teams will have played somewhere between seven and nine games. Already, surprises abound—who had the New Orleans Pelicans being the last team in the Western Conference to win a game? And who in the world thought that the Detroit Pistons would be inside of the playoff picture while the Washington Wizards find themselves on the outside?
On the individual front, there have been an equal number of surprises, both on the good side and the not-so-good. Each week, we’ll be taking a look at the top candidates for each of the NBA’s awards. Here’s how the races look thus far.
Defensive Player of the Year
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs – The only thing that’s more impressive than the way that Kawhi Leonard battles over screens and utilizes his good hands to strip opposing offensive players is the fact that he is doing that this season while scoring almost six more points per game than he did last year (16.5 points per game last season versus 22.1 points per game this season). Oh, and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year happens to be blocking 1.4 shots per game in the early part of the season.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami HEAT – By now, it’s safe to say that Hassan Whiteside is no fluke. Like DeAndre Jordan and Rudy Gobert, offensive players usually see Whiteside and head the other way. In the rare event that he is challenged, he routinely throws shots back in people’s faces. What’s most impressive about Whiteside is not that he is blocking four shots per game, it’s that he is doing it in just 29.7 minutes a night. That gives him an unreal 4.8 blocks per 36 minutes average. For perspective, it has been 20 years since any NBA player averaged four blocks per game. The accomplishment belonged to Dikembe Mutombo back in the 1995-96 season, and we’re sure that even he is impressed with Whiteside.
John Wall, Washington Wizards – John Wall has long been one of our favorites here. With his feline quickness, he has always been a sight to behold on the court. Although not necessarily renowned as a plus-defender, Wall is pesky and plays passing lanes exceptionally well. If we’re to be totally honest, though, we would admit to being swayed by the statistics here. Rarely in the NBA do you find a player who averages 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game, much less a player who gives you two of each. Although it’s early, Wall has done exactly that: 2.5 steals per game and 2.2 blocks per game. For perspective, only Gerald Wallace and Hakeem Olajuwon have averaged 2.5 steals and two blocks per game over the course of an entire season.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers – DeAndre Jordan is simply a beast on the defensive side of the ball. Although his per-36 minute numbers aren’t as impressive as Hassan Whiteside’s, we think it fair to say that it is more difficult to exert oneself as fully with an increase in minutes. In other words, 3.9 blocks per game in 32 minutes is almost as good as four blocks per game in 29.7 minutes. Jordan is a true difference maker for the Los Angeles Clippers, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Most Valuable Player
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors – The league’s reigning MVP is leading the league with 32.4 points per game and is also chipping in a tidy 5.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists. His undefeated Golden State Warriors are the last team in the league to lose a game and Curry already has a 50-point effort to his credit. After eight games, he is on pace to convert 410 three-pointers on the season, and although we can’t imagine him keeping that up, it is something to marvel at.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder – When Kevin Durant calls you the best player on the Oklahoma City Thunder, that’s saying something. After effortlessly amassing triple-doubles last season, Westbrook is showing the same floor vision and willingness to distribute that we think was indicative of tremendous growth last season. The 10.9 assists per game he is averaging in the early going is evidence of the fact, while the 47.6 percent he is currently converting from the field represents a career-best. Clocking in at 26.3 points, seven rebounds, 10.9 assists and 2.1 steals, Westbrook has certainly picked up where he left off last season. That spells trouble for the rest of the league, but may spell “MVP” for Westbrook, who finished fourth in last’s season’s voting.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons – Most people began the season not knowing who Andre Drummond is, but we think it’s safe to assume that they have heard his name by now. And if you haven’t, what rock have you been living under? The Detroit Pistons are one of the surprise teams in the early going of the season, and after winning five of their first seven games, they certainly look like the team that was streaking in the aftermath of Josh Smith’s departure last season before Brandon Jennings ruptured his Achilles tendon. Playing without Greg Monroe, Drummond has had the paint all to himself and has simply been a one-man wrecking crew. The Eastern Conference’s reigning Player of the Week for two straight weeks wins the award by virtue of his 19.4 points and 19.6 rebounds per game averages. Drummond already has three 20-20 games this season, is shooting 53 percent from the field and is also giving Stan Van Gundy’s team 1.9 blocks and 1.9 steals per game. We have nothing to complain about.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers – In many ways, life as LeBron James is unfair. His greatness has spoiled us to the point where he is attempting to live up to his own unattainable standard. James isn’t really doing anything we haven’t seen before, and he’s not even doing it up to the level that many of us expect from him. After seven games, James and his 24.4 points per game is his lowest output since his rookie year. That can be partially explained by his 34 minutes per game (again, the lowest since his rookie year), and his poor three-point shooting thus far this season gives us cause for concern. Still, 24 points along with 6.6 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 2.1 steals per game is more than “good,” it’s “MVP caliber” for any player not named LeBron. As he quietly approaches 31 years old and seeks to make his sixth straight NBA Finals appearance, though, don’t be surprised to see James’ numbers begin to regress a little.
Rookie of the Year
Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers – Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers may still be searching for their first win of the young season, but it isn’t because of Jahlil Okafor. For the most part, we knew that Okafor was a pro-ready big man, and from day one, he hasn’t disappointed—not much, anyway. His shooting has been somewhat inconsistent thus far, and he certainly isn’t making a name for himself by distributing the basketball, but he has already shown considerable flashes as a post player. Although coming in a loss, his 21-point, 15-rebound effort against the Bulls on Monday night gave him his first career double-double and he entered play on November 10 with a clean 19.9 points per game. More wins would be nice, but Okafor has seemingly separated himself as the league’s top rookie over two weeks.
Karl Anthony-Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves – After his first six games, Towns clocks in at 10 rebounds per game and a fairly impressive three blocks per game. He was renowned as a defensive stalwart during his time at Kentucky, but his offensive repertoire has appeared fairly developed as well. What surprises us most about Towns is that, through November 10, he was converting 38 percent of his shots from beyond 16 feet from the basket. There is a lot to like about the number one overall pick, including the fact that in Minneapolis, he is surrounded by other guys who can play. During the 2014-15 season, the Timberwolves didn’t win their fourth game until their 14th. This year? They began the season by winning four of their first six. Towns is a major reason why.
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks – For a young European who was deemed to be a “project,” Kristaps Porzingis has certainly come into the league ready to contribute. Installed as the starting power forward for the New York Knicks, Porzingis enters play on November 10 leading the team with 8.6 rebounds per game and has already shown impeccable timing. He has four highlight-reel worthy putbacks in the early goings of the season and has already given Knicks fans something to be happy about. In Sunday’s victory over the Los Angeles Lakers, Kobe Bryant had some positive feedback for the rookie while Magic Johnson tweeted that he was “the steal of the draft.”
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets – If you ask D’Angelo Russell or fans of the Los Angeles Lakers, they would probably remind you that it takes rookie point guards a little while to learn the NBA game. With Russell, playing under the bright lights of Los Angeles and with the distractions surrounding Kobe Bryant may have an effect. In that light, it’s easy to figure out why Mudiay might not be having such issues. Mudiay has been given the keys in Denver, as evidenced by his 30.1 minutes per game, which is second among all rookies, trailing only Okafor. He happens to be second among rookies in assists, trailing Okafor’s teammate, T.J. McConnell. Still, since turning the ball over 11 times in his debut, Mudiay slowly seems to be figuring the game out and has shown good, reliable point guard instincts thus far. Even if his numbers aren’t the best, we see flashes of potential.
NBA Daily: They Guessed Wrong
Matt John reflects on some of the key decisions that were made last summer, and how their disappointing results hurt both team outlooks and players’ legacies.
It doesn’t sound possible, but did you know that the crazy NBA summer of 2019 was, in fact, over a year ago? Wildly, in any normal, non-pandemic season, it all would have been over three months ago and, usually, media days would be right around the corner, but not this time. The 2019-20 NBA season is slated to end sometime in early to mid-October, so the fact that the last NBA off-season was over a year ago hasn’t really dawned on anyone yet. Craziest of all, even though there will still be an offseason, there technically won’t be any summer.
Coronavirus has really messed up the NBA’s order. Of course, there are much worse horrors that COVID-19 has inflicted upon the world – but because of what it’s done to the NBA, let’s focus on that and go back to the summer of 2019. It felt like an eternity, but the Golden State Warriors’ three-year reign had finally reached its end. The Toronto Raptors’ victory over the tyranny that was the Hamptons Five – as battered as they were – made it feel like order had been restored to the NBA. There was more to it than that though.
Klay Thompson’s and Kevin Durant’s season-ending injuries, along with the latter skipping town to join Kyrie Irving in Brooklyn meant two things.
1. Golden State was down for the count
2. Brooklyn’s time wasn’t coming until next year.
A one-year window was open. Even if neither Golden State nor Brooklyn posed the same threat that the former did when it had Kevin Durant, those were two contenders out of commission. If there was a time to go all in, it was in 2019.
Milwaukee certainly seemed to go all in. For the most part. Malcolm Brogdon’s departure seemed a little odd since he was arguably their best non-Giannis playmaker when they were in crunch time. Not to mention there was nothing really stopping the Bucks from keeping him except for money. Detractors will call out Milwaukee for electing to cheap out by not keeping Brogdon and hence, avoiding the luxury tax. However, there’s more to it than that.
Milwaukee thought it had enough with the core it had on its roster. Coming off the best season they had put up since the eighties, they believed the franchise built the right team to contend. There was an argument that keeping Brogdon may have been overkill with their guard depth – let’s not forget that Donte DiVincenzo did a solid job in Brogdon’s role as the backup facilitator. This would have been more defensible had it not been for Milwaukee picking the wrong guy to let go. That was the indefensible part- electing to keep Eric Bledsoe over Brogdon.
Bledsoe wasn’t necessarily a bad investment. No one’s complaining about an almost 15 point average on 47/34/79 splits or playing individual defense tight enough to get named on the All-Defensive second team. By all accounts, Bledsoe earns his keep. That is until the playoffs. Bledsoe’s postseason woes have been a weight ever since he first entered Milwaukee, and this postseason was more of the same.
Bledsoe’s numbers dwindled to just 11.7 points on 39/25/81 splits, and Milwaukee getting ousted in five games at the hands of Miami made his struggles stand out even more than it had ever been. Bledsoe may be the better athlete and the better defender, but Brogdon’s all-around offensive savvy and his only slight dropoff defensively from Brogdon would have made him a bit more reliable.
Milwaukee guessed wrong when they opted to extend Bledsoe before the postseason last year when they could have waited until that very time to evaluate who to keep around. Now they face a hell of a lot more questions than they did at the end of last season – questions that may have been avoided had they made the right choice.
Now they could have kept both of them, yes, but it’s not totally unreasonable to think that maybe their approach with the luxury tax would have worked and maybe they would still be in the postseason right now had they gone with the homegrown talent. And just maybe, there wouldn’t be nearly as much of this Greek Freak uncertainty.
The Houston Rockets can relate. They got bruised up by a team that everyone thought Houston had the edge on going into the series and then crushed by the Lakers. Now, Mike D’Antoni is gone. The full-time small ball experiment likely did not work out. Since the Rockets emptied most of their assets to bring in Russell Westbrook and Robert Covington, there may not be a route in which they can become better than they presently are.
The mistake wasn’t trading for Russell Westbrook. The mistake was trading Chris Paul.
To be fair, most everybody severely overestimated Chris Paul’s decline. He’s not among the best of the best anymore, but he’s still pretty darn close. He deserved his All-NBA second team selection as well as finishing No. 7 overall in MVP voting. OKC had no business being as good as they were this season, and Paul was the driving force as to why.
For all we know, the previously-assumed tension between Chris Paul and James Harden would have made its way onto the court no matter what. Even so, Houston’s biggest obstacle in the Bay Area had crumbled. If they had just stayed the course, maybe they’re still in the postseason too.
To their credit, none of this may have happened had it not been for the Kawhi Leonard decision. Had he chosen differently, the Thunder never blow it up, and Houston might have very well been the favorite in the Western Conference. Instead, the Rockets took a step back from being in the title discussion to dark horse. But at least they can take pride knowing that they weren’t expected to win it all – the Clippers can’t.
Seeing the Clippers fall well short expectations begs the question if they too got it wrong. The answer is, naturally: of course not. They may have paid a hefty price for Paul George, but the only way they were getting Kawhi Leonard – one of the best players of his generation – was if PG-13 came in the package. As lofty as it was, anyone would have done the same thing if they were in their shoes. They didn’t get it wrong. Kawhi did.
On paper, the Clippers had the most talented roster in the entire league. It seemed like they had every hole filled imaginable. Surrounding Leonard and George was three-point shooting, versatility, a productive second unit, an experienced coach – you name it. There was nothing stopping them from breaking the franchise’s long-lasting curse. Except themselves.
Something felt off about them. They alienated opponents. They alienated each other. At times, they played rather lackadaisically, like the title had already been signed, sealed, and delivered to them. The media all assumed they’d cut the malarkey and get their act together – but that moment never really came. They had their chances to put Denver away, but even if they had, after seeing their struggles to beat them – and to be fair Dallas too – would their day of destiny with the Lakers have really lived up to the hype?
Even if it was never in the cards, one can’t help but wonder what could have happened had Kawhi chosen to stay with the team he won his second title with.
Toronto was the most impressive team in this league this season. They still managed to stay at the top of the east in spite of losing an all-timer like Leonard. That team had every component of a winner except a superstar. They had the right culture for a championship team. Just not the right talent. The Clippers were the exact opposite. They had the right talent for a championship team but not the right culture. That’s why the Raptors walked away from the postseason feeling proud of themselves for playing to their full potential while the Clippers writhed in disappointment and angst over their future.
In the end, everyone mentioned here may ultimately blame what happened to their season on the extenuating circumstances from the pandemic. The Bucks’ chemistry never fully returned when the Bubble started. Contracting COVID and dealing with quad problems prevented Westbrook from reviving the MVP-type player he was before the hiatus. As troubling as the Clippers had played, the extra time they would have had to work things out in a normal season was taken away from them.
For all we know, next year will be a completely different story. The Rockets, Bucks, and Kawhi may ultimately have their faith rewarded for what they did in the summer of 2019 – but that will only be mere speculation until the trio can change the story.
Looking Toward The Draft: Power Forwards
Basketball Insiders continues their NBA Draft watch, this time with the power forwards.
We got some updated NBA draft news this week when the league announced that several key dates have been pushed back including the draft, the start of free agency and the beginning of the 2020-21 season.
The 2020 draft was originally scheduled for Oct. 16, but it will now likely occur sometime in November. Obviously, with the COVID-19 pandemic still wildly out of control in the United States, all of these potential deadlines are fluid and subject to change.
With that said, we’re continuing our position by position breakdown here at Basketball Insiders of some of the top 2020 draft prospects. We looked at the point guards and shooting guards last week, and this week we’re covering the small forwards and power forwards.
The power forward crop, like the draft overall, doesn’t appear to be as strong as recent years, that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential contributors and high-level NBA players available, as well as one who might just turn out to be a star-caliber player.
Onyeka Okongwu, USC – 19 years old
Okongwu is the player who just might develop into a star on some level. He was actually underrated in high school and was snubbed for a McDonald’s All-American selection his senior year. He established himself early on at USC as the team’s best player as a freshman and now appears to have turned some heads.
He’s been mentioned as a lottery pick and in some mock drafts, he’s top 4-5. He possesses a great all-around skill-set; he can score in the post, he can put the ball on the floor and attack and he can shoot. But perhaps his biggest attribute is his versatility on the defensive end. He’s got quick feet and mobility and can guard multiple positions.
Okongwu might actually play center in the NBA, especially in small-ball lineups, but he’s mostly played power forward and so he’ll probably see time there in the league. His skill-set fits perfectly with today’s game.
Obi Toppin, Dayton – 22 years old
Toppin is one of the older players in the draft, and in recent history, players that age tend to slip on draft boards. In Toppin’s case, it looks like the reverse might actually be true. He’s been projected as a lottery pick, and even going in the top 3.
He’s an incredibly athletic player who thrives in the open court. He looks like he’ll do well in an up-tempo offensive system that has capable playmakers who can find him in transition. He’s extremely active around the rim and he can finish strong. A decent shooter too, something he’ll need at the next level.
Toppin has the physical tools to be an effective defensive player, but that’s where the questions marks on him have been. In the NBA, he’s likely going to have to play and guard multiple positions. Whether or not he can adapt to that likely will answer the question as to what his ceiling can be.
Precious Achiuwa, Memphis – 20 years old
Achiuwa is another intriguing prospect. this writer actually got to watch him play in person while he was in high school and he was very impressive. He looked like a man among boys. He’s projected to be a late lottery pick.
He has an NBA-ready body and he’s got some toughness around the rim and in the paint. He was a double-double threat during his one season at Memphis and his knack for rebounding is something that should translate to the NBA. He’s a very good defender too, in particular, as a rim protector. He’s very quick and has the ability to guard multiple positions.
One of the main knocks on Achiuwa is his shooting ability. He didn’t shoot that well in college and power forwards being able to space the floor is almost a requirement in today’s NBA game. It’s something he can certainly work on and improve on though.
Paul Reed, DePaul – 21 years old
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State – 21 years old
Killian Tillie, Gonzaga – 22 years old
Looking Toward the Draft: Small Forwards
Basketball Insiders’ examination of the 2020 draft class continues with a look at the small forwards.
It was announced on Wednesday that the NBA Draft would be delayed from Oct. 16 to Nov. 18. The rationale is that the extra month gives the league and its players association more time to negotiate changes to the CBA. It also grants teams additional time to procure information on prospects and allows the NBA to establish regional virtual combines. But nothing is set in stone.
Still, draft prep must continue. This year’s draft class has more question marks than usual – which was complicated by the cancellation of the NCAA tournament (along with the NIT and a number of conference tournaments). There are incredibly skilled offensive players with limited offensive upside and jaw-droppingly talented defenders with incomplete offensive packages. But if (recent) history serves as a guide, there will be a few guys who make an immediate impact – and some of them very well could be small forwards.
The small forward position is key for the modern NBA. Want proof? Survey the league and you’ll find that most – if not all – contenders have an elite small forward – Milwaukee, Los Angeles (both), Boston, Miami, Toronto.
But the list of can’t miss small forward prospects feels smaller than usual. Scanning the numerous legitimate mock drafts (including our own by Steve Kyler), it becomes apparent that we lack a consensus on which small forwards will be selected (and in what order) after the top 3 or 4. Can any of them grow into a star? Maybe. Maybe not. But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s identify what the top few bring to the table.
Deni Avdija, Israel – 19 years old
Avdija is a relatively well-rounded prospect who’s played professionally since he was 16. He boasts good height (6-foot-9) and uses it effectively to shoot over and pass around opposing defenses. Further, Avdija is an exceptional playmaker and he’s incredibly confident, enabling him to take chances many players would be apprehensive trying. Avdija is a high-IQ player. And what’s more, he’s a surprisingly strong defender. His height and above-average athleticism allow him to block shots, and he’s more physical than you’d expect him to be.
But there are drawbacks to Avdija, too. His main issue is around shooting. Avdija shot only 28% in the EuroLeague last season, and he shot only 60% from the free-throw line. Further, while he’s a decent athlete, he’ll struggle to secure a role in the NBA. He’s going to need to add speed to stay with modern wings, and he’ll also have to bulk up to bang with power forwards.
Still, Avdija’s upside is alluring. He’s only 19, and his smarts, confidence and grittiness should provide him cover for much of his rookie season. Avdija should be the first small forward off of the board.
Isaac Okoro, Auburn – 19 years old
Avdija might be the flashier name currently, but Okoro will give him a run for his money in terms of which small forward is first off the board. Okoro is built like a traditional NBA wing; he’s 6-foot-6 with good strength packed in his muscular frame (215 lbs). Okoro finishes well around the rim and he converts well through contact. He’s an exceptional athlete who excels catching the ball on the move. Like Avdija, Okoro has the poise and composure of a more experienced player. Also, like Avdija, Okoro looked the part of a high IQ player in his lone season at Auburn.
And while all that is great, the main allure of Okoro is his defense. He’s a fairly advanced defender given his age, and his athleticism and timing make him an effective weak side help defender.
While Okoro’s raw abilities are exquisite, his refined offensive skills leave something to be desired. Okoro shot 28 percent on three-point field goals and he struggled from the free-throw line (67.2 percent). His mid-range jump shot also needs work, and he struggles in isolation situations.
If Okoro can hone his offensive game, he could grow into an All-Star. He has the ability to guard multiple positions, and his strength and athleticism give him a leg up on most prospects. But even if he doesn’t become an All-Star, he possesses a fairly high floor given his defensive abilities — and the guy definitely fills the state sheet (12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists, .9 steals and .9 blocks). He has lockdown defender potential and he’ll put his stamp on the game beginning on night one.
Devin Vassell, Florida State – 20 years old
Vassell played two seasons at Florida State, but he came into his own in his Sophomore season. He averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot a more than respectable 41.5% on three-point attempts, and he demonstrated a strong stroke from the free-throw line (73.8 percent) and on two-point field goal attempts (53.2).
Vassell is an extremely athletic leaper, who can rise up for a highlight dunk and sprint down the floor with ease. He has good body control and demonstrated a strong mid-range game, especially his step-back jump shot. But Vassell must generate more free throws through decisive moves to the hoop, which would be bolstered by a more muscular frame. Additionally, he must improve his ball-handling to get more from isolations.
Vassell will have an adjustment period in terms of scoring the ball at the next level. Fortunately, his defense and shooting should get him by. If he can bulk up and improve his handling, Vassell could grow into a serious player.
Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt – 20 years old
Nesmith probably has a lower floor than any of the other top small forward prospects given that he’ll be 21 by the draft. Still, he looked quite good in his Junior year, averaging 23 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game on a scorching 52.2 percent shooting from deep. Nesmith is an incredibly gifted shooter who has impressive range. His ability to catch-and-shoot and create space with fakes makes him a promising prospect – for the right team.
Nesmith is a high IQ player who uses his smarts on the defensive end. He’s also quite strong, can get buckets in the open floor and demonstrates above average ball-handling skills, as long as he’s not taking the ball to the hoop.
But there are inherent limitations in Nesmith’s game. He’s doesn’t create for his teammates too effectively and he turns the ball over more frequently than one would like with. Further, Nesmith is plagued by robotic movements that limit his athleticism. His ball-handling breaks down when taking the ball to the rack – something he’ll certainly have to work on in the NBA if he wants to be a versatile scoring threat against the bigger and stronger competition.
Still, Nesmith’s positives give him an excellent chance at being selected in the first round. His range alone will intrigue teams in need of a shooter.
Saddiq Bey, Villanova – 21 years old
Jaden McDaniels, Washington – 19 years old
Robert Woodard II, Mississippi State – 20 years old
With the uncertainty around small forward prospects, expect to see a revolving door of names enter the discussion after the first four wing prospects are off the board prior to Nov. 16 – assuming the draft is held then. But regardless of how you have them ranked, all of the aforementioned prospects have question marks. But all have had far more time to improve than they would have in years’ past. Let’s hope that shows come next season.