For most teams, the 2019-20 NBA regular season is but six or seven games old. That said, it’s never too early for a player to put their name in the ring for some end-of-the-season, non-championship hardware.
In fact, the race to Most Valuable Player has already seemed to have established itself.
Giannis Antetokounmpo started the season as the favorite at +300 odds and maintains that position with +250 odds coming from Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Stephen Curry started the season in a close second with +600 odds to win but has seen his odds for the award plummet in the past week after sustaining a hand injury that will force him to be out for at least 3 months. Despite the season being fairly young, there has been a lot of movement in the race for the regular-season award, including the rise of Paskal Siakam, now in the MVP conversation with Las Vegas odds of +5000.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+250)
Notwithstanding the Milwaukee Bucks’ slow start, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s dominant play has kept him in the conversation to repeat as MVP this season.
Already averaging a career-high in assists (7.4) and rebounds (14) per game, Antetokounmpo is now shooting three-pointers more consistently. In his first game against the Raptors since their Game 6 loss last postseason, Antetokounmpo played his best game of the year. Antetokounmpo dropped 36 points and had 15 rebounds in the 115-105 Milwaukee win, saying he was “motivated” by the match up after they fell to the eventual NBA champions.
Antetokounmpo can impact the game on either side of the court, which swayed many voters to pick him over James Harden, who averaged a league-best 30.7 points per game, last season. He has shown continued commitment to defense by averaging 1.8 blocks per game, which is a trait that only two other MVP candidates can hang their hat on: Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis.
Of course, Antetokounmpo wants to be the first back-to-back MVP since Curry back in 2015-2016; who wouldn’t? Well, the continued development of his offensive game coupled with his dominant defensive play should make Antetokounmpo a strong candidate to accomplish that feat.
James Harden (+350)
James Harden, at 36.6 points per contest, has unsurprisingly led the league in scoring.
Meanwhile, as last season’s MVP, Antetokounmpo, isn’t even on the top-10 scoring leader board.
Harden is the outright isolation possession leader through seven games at 15 isolation plays per game, but he has coupled that with a three-point percentage of just 25.3 percent. At first glance, his polarizing offensive style requires him to dominate the ball and comes at the expense of integrating new teammate Russell Westbrook, though, who, despite Harden’s dominant playstyle, has posted several impressive box scores.
Harden has also capitalized the most out of any other player in those iso-situations, scoring 12 points per game in isolation. The usage rate leader of last season, Harden is one of the few players to rank above Anthony Davis in the category at 38.2 percent.
Harden’s start to this season has been very rocky, as he hit just 10 of his first 42 field goal attempts. However, he has been vintage Harden since; Harden put up 40 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder and racked up 59 in an epic duel with Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards. The main question will be if Harden can shore up the inconsistencies he dealt with to start the year, and whether his play will help the Rockets be successful during the regular season.
Anthony Davis (+600)
Anthony Davis has averaged 28.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists through his first six games of the 2019-2020 season. That’s 3 points and 1 rebound per game more than the reigning MVP, Antetokounmpo. His three blocks per game lead the NBA and he’s been excellent at the free-throw line, converting 88.3 percent of his attempts and missing just once from the stripe in his last three games.
Davis’s season has been headlined by a performance that included 40 points, 20 rebounds in 3 quarters against the Memphis Grizzlies, planting him firmly at the forefront of the early-season MVP discussion. The 26-year-old is already a 6-time All-Star and playing alongside LeBron James has helped him improve on both ends of the floor, without the added pressure of carrying the whole of his team’s burden.
With Davis having established himself as a primary scoring option and defensive leader for Los Angeles, the Lakers have started strong with a 5-1 record. He has led the Lakers to a winning streak of five games after dropping their regular-season opener 112-102 to the Los Angeles Clippers. If the Lakers end the season as one of the top teams in a competitive Western Conference, and Davis is the primary reason for that success, look for him to be a top candidate to win the MVP award.
Outside Looking In:
Kawhi Leonard (+800) –
After leaving Toronto this summer, Leonard realized that he needed to focus on improving his passing ability in order to become more of a well-rounded player. Even though the Clippers have a deep bench with solid role players that can defend, they do not have a point guard that can manage the game as Toronto had with Kyle Lowery.
In response to this, Leonard has taken over the offense for the Clippers. He has doubled his assists from last year, going from 3.3 to 5.7 assists per game. Leonard, despite that extra offensive burden, has maintained his exceptional scoring efficiency as well; against another former team, the San Antonio Spurs, Leonard dropped 38 points, 12 rebounds while he shot 48 percent from the field.
Leonard has claimed to be the healthiest he has been in the past two seasons, after sustaining a serious quad injury in San Antonio that cost him an entire season and led to his eventual title run in Toronto. But, despite claiming to be in great health, Leonard will still lose games to “load management” and has already missed one game to start the season. It remains to be seen how often Leonard will be sidelined, but frequent absences certainly won’t help the 28-year-old superstar win any award, save for the Larry O’Brien trophy.
Lebron James (+1000)
Whatever you do, please do not tell LeBron James that he’s 34 years old. Nor that he’s in year 17 of his career.
Many suggested during the off-season that James was “washed” or “over the hill.” But, after back-to-back triple-doubles against the Spurs and Dallas Mavericks, James has silenced many of his critics. Of course, so far along in his career, it natural for questions to arise after last year’s groin injuries.
But, unfortunately for those critics, a 34-year old James posted an incredible 39 point, 16 assist, 12 rebound performance against a young Mavericks squad.
Of course, we’re only 6 games into the Lakers season, but, after his first offseason actually off for the first time in more than a decade, James has looked revitalized. With averages of 25.5 points, 11.2 assists, and 8 rebounds per game, proving that he is still the same, dominant James when it comes to his on-court ability.
The real question will be how James progresses through the season and whether he can continue his current level of play. He will certainly take games off during the regular season to ‘load manage,’ ala Leonard, which could hurt him in the award race. But, if he can sustain his play (and play enough), he could certainly prove another strong candidate for MVP.
Pascal Siakam (+5000) Siakam, who signed a four-year, $130 million extension with the Raptors last month, has averaged 26 points and 8.5 rebounds through six games. Given this early impact, Siakam is one of the biggest early risers. His odds have shot up to 40-1 from initial longshots odds listed at 100-1. Through his leadership, the Toronto Raptors have picked up right where they left off last season as one of the hardest-playing teams in the league starting the season with a 4-2 record.
Siakam has progressed in almost every game. But, during the Raptors’ latest loss to the Bucks, he floundered against Antetokounmpo due to foul trouble, something that has proven an issue having already fouled out of two games and having five fouls in two of Toronto’s other six. Regardless of the foul woes, Siakam ranks 12th in the NBA in scoring with 26.0 points per game, a significant improvement from his average last season of 16.9.
Without Leonard, many cast the Raptors out of the Eastern Conference elite. But, if the Raptors end up with one of the best records by the end of the season, it’ll be because of Siakam’s play and his leadership, both of which could prove a boon to his MVP chances.
Of course, take note of the small sample size qualifier; given more time, these rankings are subject to change over the course of the season. That said, these six have stood out from the crowd, and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Make sure to stay tuned for the rest of the Basketball Insiders award watches, and keep on the lookout for future updates throughout the season.
NBA Daily: Can Anyone Challenge the East’s Top Teams?
The Eastern Conference Finals will likely have two of the top three teams represented. While the rest of the teams in the East battle amongst themselves, do any of them have a shot to knock off Brooklyn, Philadelphia, or Milwaukee in the playoffs?
The Western Conference has been dominating the league once again, in terms of quality teams from top to bottom. The 13th worst team in the West would be a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Though their depth is lacking, the East still has a few teams that are championship contenders this season.
The Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks all have a legitimate chance of reaching the NBA Finals this summer. It is championship-or-bust for these franchises who have emptied their wallets in order to pursue the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Each of these teams has at least two star players and another All-Star caliber player to help them reach their ultimate goal. Each one of these teams has a legitimate MVP candidate. In Brooklyn’s case, they just might have the greatest offensive three-headed monster the league has ever seen.
Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo are what separates these three teams from the rest of the conference.
This season there is plenty of parity among the remaining teams in the East. The standings change every night as these teams battle with nearly identical records. It would be a shocking surprise to not see one of Brooklyn, Philly or Milwaukee make it to the NBA Finals.
Odds are that two of these three teams will meet in the Conference Finals, but is there another team lurking that could upset the apple cart? Do any of these teams in the second-tier have enough talent and firepower to upset one of the East’s elite? Here are four teams that could play spoiler.
After reaching the NBA Finals last season in the bubble down in Orlando, the HEAT have definitely cooled off this year. They had a slow start at the beginning of the season, then had a long pause as health and safety protocols wreaked havoc on their roster. Not having Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic available really hurt them, but the tide could be turning.
Butler himself has been on a tear since returning to the court — and his teammates have followed his lead. Bam Adebayo has quietly had another outstanding year and they finally got their man Victor Oladipo before the trade deadline passed. Unfortunately, his recent injury put a serious damper on their hopes of getting back to the Finals.
UPDATE: Victor Oladipo will not be accompanying the team on the west coast road trip and will be further evaluated.
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) April 9, 2021
Miami needs Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson to play more consistently, especially with Oladipo out. Veterans Andre Iguodala and Trevor Ariza should help in the postseason as they incorporate another perimeter shooter in Nemanja Bjelica. They have the star power and the experience needed to make another run, but the odds are stacked against them.
After a dismal start to the season, the Hawks appear to have figured out their identity. Much like the situation in Boston, this team was tasked with trying to build chemistry during a pandemic without essentially any practice. That is a difficult proposition and something that was going to take time. They also still needed to develop their young guys like Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter and Onyeka Okongwu.
After turning things over to Nate McMillan, he has been able to coach up this young squad, even without some of their top talent. Every player on the team has missed a chunk of time this year and they have had to seriously rely on their depth to get them through most of the regular season. Having won 15 of their last 20 games, they now find themselves in a position to have home-court advantage when the playoffs begin.
The vision that Travis Schlenk had in the offseason is finally becoming clear. The incredible play of guys like Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic and even Solomon Hill has been vital to their success. They will still lean on Trae Young and John Collins for their offense but the talented pieces around them are what will make this team tough to beat in a seven-game series.
The Hornets have been one of the pleasant surprises this season, even after the acquisition of All-Star forward Gordon Hayward. Charlotte is the true definition of a team, as they have multiple guys that have stepped up and played well in spots throughout the season. PJ Washington, Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, Bismack Biyombo, Jalen McDaniels and the Martin twins of Cody and Caleb have all contributed to their success.
The play of LaMelo Ball had him sitting at the top of the rookie class before he suffered his broken wrist. His phenomenal first season may be over, but the organization is holding out hope that he may be able to return in the playoffs should Charlotte earn a spot in the postseason. Hayward is also back on the shelf as he continues to deal with a sprained foot. Charlotte has been able to stay afloat during their absences, which is a huge credit to James Borrego.
One more major difference-maker for the Hornets this season has been Terry Rozier. The electric guard is one of the top 40 scorers in the league this season and has been one of the best clutch performers as well. He is shooting a career-best 41 percent from behind the arc and 46 percent overall from the floor. They can be a dark horse come playoff time, but they will need their two best players healthy in order to have any chance.
It has been a very strange season for the Celtics, who entered the year with high expectations. They have been the greatest mystery this season and a puzzle that Brad Stevens is still trying to put together. Jaylen Brown has taken his game to another level and Jayson Tatum has had his moments as well. Both have cooled off since the All-Star break and Kemba Walker has been hot and cold from game to game.
Marcus Smart missed a lot of time and they brought in Evan Fournier at the trade deadline but he has yet to fit in like many thought he would. Chemistry could be the issue, but no one has really been able to put their finger on their kryptonite. The good news is that Tatum appears to finally be returning to health after his battle with COVID.
Jayson Tatum said he’s been using an inhaler before games since testing positive for COVID-19. Said he’s still not quite back to 100 percent, but that he’s “close.” Tatum tested positive back in January.
— Tim Bontemps (@TimBontemps) April 14, 2021
The center position has been a revolving door for this team all season, with Tristan Thompson, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams, Tacko Fall, Moritz Wagner and Luke Kornet all trying to fill the void left by Enes Kanter. They could have had the league’s leading shot-blocker Myles Turner, but Danny Ainge let Hayward walk for nothing instead.
On paper, this team is oozing with talent and should be much better than their record indicates. They may finally be figuring things out, having won six of their last seven games, including four straight. If their issues are truly fixed and if they can stay healthy, they will be a team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs.
NBA Daily: Rajon Rondo Brings Leadership, Playmaking to Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers made a big trade deadline move last month when they shipped out locker room favorite and perennial Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams to the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for Rajon Rondo.
The Los Angeles Clippers made a big trade deadline move last month when they shipped out locker room favorite and perennial Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams to the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for Rajon Rondo.
The Clippers have had one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA this season, but even so, they have had times where the offense seemingly stalls and they can’t seem to generate easing scoring opportunities especially late in games.
The calls for a true point guard only got louder after those games and the team finally gave in and rolled the dice on one of the league’s better playmakers, especially come playoff time. Williams has been a good playmaker himself throughout his career and he was averaging 3.4 assists per game prior to the trade.
But in Rondo, the Clippers get a premier playmaker and floor leader who has won two championships and whom the Lakers often closed games with last year in the postseason. Rondo made his Clippers debut on Easter Sunday in the team’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers and although his numbers didn’t jump off the stat sheet (2 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists and 4 turnovers in 12 minutes of play), he played with a lot of energy and pushed the pace well, something the Clippers haven’t always been so good at this season.
After the game, Rondo summed up what his role on the team is going to be quite simply.
“Just go out there and try and lead by example,” Rondo said. “I don’t like to talk as much without showing out on the court for my teammates.”
Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue was a little more effusive in his thoughts on how Rondo will fit in on the team and how much better they will be with his addition. The Clippers have spoken all season long about needing to push the ball in transition and try and generate easy scoring opportunities on the break and that’s something Lue noticed right away with Rondo.
“You could just tell his pace brings a different something to our team and offensively he’s getting the outlet close to half court before the first pass is made. That generates pace for us and we need that,” Lue said. “As slow as we run sometimes, it’s probably going to have to be something that we adjust to, but I think he makes the game easier. When you get out and run in transition, a lot of teams can’t get back and get a match so we will get open shots. With him generating the pace, that’s going to be good for us.”
One area in particular that the team is hoping Rondo can help with is taking some of the ball-handling pressure off of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Both players have really stepped up in transitioning to primary ball-handling roles, something they haven’t had to do thus far in their careers.
They’re both averaging career-highs in assists at 5.0 and 5.4 respectively and have done well moving the ball around and getting good shots throughout the game for themselves and their teammates. But there have been times when the ball stagnates a bit and both Leonard and George end up taking tough contested shots late in the game.
With Rondo on board, the Clippers have a player that will keep the ball moving and can help get both of them easy looks down the stretch, something he did to perfection last year with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
“Just trying to get our two main guys the ball in easier spots as far as them having to work so hard to get the ball against a set defense,” Rondo said. “If we are able to create stops to get on the break, my job is to advance the ball and let those guys attack one-on-one before the defense is set.”
In his first game playing alongside Rondo, George immediately saw the benefits and how Rondo will take pressure off of both him and Leonard.
“You just see his intangibles, you see he just sees plays happening,” George said. “I thought it just made the game easier getting it up to him, letting him push the ball, letting him initiate instead of a lot of times myself and Kawhi doing it. We got a guy that can do it, it’s just going to make the game easier for us.”
A team’s point guard is often an extension of the head coach on the court and Rondo certainly has been that throughout his career. He’s been a vocal leader on the court and in the locker room and his stint with the Dallas Mavericks notwithstanding, he’s been a very positive influence wherever he’s been.
He’s looking forward to working alongside Lue and doing his best to implement Lue’s schemes on the court both offensively and defensively.
“Just try to be on the same page as my coach. Not too much as me trying to outsmart my opponents, which at all times I want to be two steps ahead of,” Rondo said. “I want to stay afloat with my teammates as well and be on the same page as them and be an extension of [Tyronn Lue] on the court.”
NBA Western Conference Bright Future Watch
The Western Conference is loaded with talent this year, but who will be the teams that dominate it in the future? Zach Dupont takes a look at which teams have the brightest future in the Western Conference.
It’s easy to get swept up in the excitement of the current season as we head towards the climax of a great race for the Western Conference title. But there are already reasons to look past this year and get excited about the teams who could dominate the Western Conference past 2020-21.
Who are the teams that could strike next year? And who has set themselves up to have a bright future in the Western Conference?
The Denver Nuggets are primed to become a force in the Western Conference for years to come and could easily be the favorites heading into next year. The Nuggets’ four best players, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon, are all under contract for next season, and all of them are younger than 26-years-old. Jokic has proved himself to be one of the best players in the NBA over the past few seasons and has emerged as a favorite for the MVP award this year. In 2020-21, Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game while shooting 57 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three. Jokic’s wingman Murray is no slouch either, posting the best numbers of his career with 21.3 points per game on 48 percent shooting and 41.2 percent shooting from three. Combine Jokic’s MVP play and Murray’s high-end scoring ability with the shooting and potential of Porter Jr., and the defensive ability of Gordon and the Nuggets emerge as a clear threat in the Western Conference.
The Nuggets also won’t be lacking for depth next year like many of their rivals. Monte Morris is locked up for the next few seasons, and Will Barton and JaMychal Green have player options for next season that they could easily accept. The Nuggets can also keep Facundo Campazzo and P.J. Dozier for next season, as both are on non-guaranteed contracts. There are also younger players on the roster who have shown some promise and could be a factor next season. Zeke Nnaji showed potential as a stretch four in limited showings this year, and Bol Bol is still an exciting talent. Denver will even have some money to play with in free agency this offseason, although the looming extension they will owe Porter Jr. will make options limited. Paul Millsap will no longer be on the books at near $15 million a year, and if either Barton or Green decided to decline their player options, that would give the Nuggets more cap flexibility.
The Nuggets have the most intriguing mix of high-end talent and youth in the west, and while they’re already a threat this season, next season, they may be the favorites.
The Grizzlies may not be where Denver is as a team now, but long-term, they are equally as exciting. The Grizzlies are loaded with young talent up and down the roster, and they already have one of their stars of the future. Ja Morant has been a sensation since entering the league last season, and with another year of experience under his belt, the league should be worried about the Grizzlies’ potential. Morant is averaging 18.8 points and 7.4 assists per game in his sophomore campaign. Morant is joined by fellow youngster Jaren Jackson Jr., a two-way big with loads of potential. Jackson has yet to see the floor this year, but he showed the ability to protect the rim like an elite defender and knock down a high volume of three-pointers in his first two seasons of action.
The Grizzlies core may be focused around Morant and Jackson, but what makes Memphis more exciting than other teams out west is the roster’s pure volume of prospects. Brandon Clarke was a steal in the 2019 NBA Draft and has already shown to be a great center who can impact the game on both offense and defense, De’Anthony Melton is one of the league’s most underappreciated defensive players at just 22-years-old and Desmond Bane is already knocking down over 45 percent of his three-point attempts in his rookie season. From top to bottom, Memphis has exciting young talent. Together with their established talent like Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas, you’ve got a team primed to compete in the Western Conference in 2021-22.
Memphis may not be a title favorite next year, but their ability to acquire talented youth will only make them better and better every season.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have some major decisions to make this offseason, but they are a team to watch out west next year no matter what they do. New Orleans has maybe the most exciting young talent in the NBA in Zion Williamson, who has emerged as one of the most efficient and dangerous scorers in the league this season. Williamson is putting up 26.3 points per game this season on an absurd 62 percent shooting and 66 percent true shooting. At just 20-years-old Williamson is already an All-Star, and he will inevitably improve over the next few seasons with his ceiling being as high as anyone’s in the NBA. New Orleans has managed to pair Williamson with another All-Star level player in Brandon Ingram, who has averaged nearly 24 points per game in each of the past two seasons. The Pelicans’ big decision this offseason will be what to do with their point guard, Lonzo Ball. Ball has always been a talented distributor and defender since entering the league, but this year he has taken a step forward as a scorer, averaging a career-best 14.5 points per game and 38.4 percent shooting from three. Ball is set to be a restricted free agent this offseason, and it’s not a given that he will be back next year.
New Orleans already has a core to build around, and they have young depth pieces to add to the already exciting potential of the roster. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis are a pair of young point guards who have shown a lot of potential and could fill in nicely for Ball if he departs this summer. Alexander-Walker is putting up more than 10 points per game in his sophomore campaign, and he has shown glimpses of being a defender and shooter in the same mold as Ball. Lewis is a speedy rookie out of Alabama who has found playing time hard to come by, but if either Ball or Eric Bledsoe find themselves not in New Orleans next year, he has showcased skills that could put him in the conversation for major minutes.
If Zion takes another step next year, and the whole team cleans it up defensively, the Pelicans could become serious players in the Western Conference.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers may not be full of young players with high-end potential like other teams on this list, but they still represent the West’s most dangerous threat when healthy. Every season the question “when will he finally slow down” is asked about LeBron James, and every season LeBron shows he is still one of the most dominant players in the NBA. LeBron Is 36-years-old, and this season he has put up 25.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game and, before getting injured a few weeks ago, was one of the favorites for the MVP award. LeBron’s running mate, Anthony Davis, is equally dangerous and could be considered the NBA’s best two-way player. The Lakers have both Davis and LeBron locked in for next season, and the presence of those two players alone makes them a title threat in the west regardless of the team put around them.
One benefit of having superstars like LeBron and Davis is that it becomes much easier to sign role players. The Lakers will already have the services of Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marc Gasol next season, and Montrezl Harrell has a $9.7 million player option for next season. But the draw of potentially winning a championship will bring the Lakers role players on cheaper contracts than they would have signed elsewhere, as evident by Gasol, Andre Drummond and Wesley Matthews’ contracts.
The Lakers may not be the first thing that comes to mind when thinking of bright futures, but LeBron and Davis will keep the Lakers’ future bright for as long as they remain in LA.