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NBA Draft 2023 Lottery Odds, Simulation, Results & Past Winners

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James Foglio
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James Foglio Sports Editor

James is a Basketball Insiders contributor. He earned his bachelor's degree in English and Creative Writing at Southern New Hampshire University. James enjoys watching sports and helping gamblers win money.

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Updated08 May 2023

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NBA Draft 2023 Lottery Odds, Simulation, Results & Past Winners

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm is Tuesday, May 16, 2023, at 8 p.m. ET. This event will air live on ESPN. The lottery will take place during the NBA Conference Finals and will be held at United Center in Chicago, Illinois.

The Detroit Pistons (17-65), Houston Rockets (22-60), and San Antonio Spurs (22-60) are the top three teams. These three contenders have a 14% probability of receiving the No. 1 overall pick for the chance to draft top prospect Victor Wembanyama in the 2023 NBA Draft.

2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds and Order

NBA Team

Record

Win%

NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Detroit Pistons

17-65

.207

14%

Houston Rockets

22-60

.268

14%

San Antonio Spurs

22-60

 .268

14%

Charlotte Hornets

 27-55 .329

12.5%

Portland Trail Blazers

 33-49 .402

10.5%

Orlando Magic

 34-48 .415

9%

Indiana Pacers

 35-47 .427

6.8%
Washington Wizards 35-47 .427

6.7%

Utah Jazz

 37-45 .451

4.5%

Dallas Mavericks

 38-44 .463

3%

Chicago Bulls

 40-42 .488 1.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder

 40-42 .488

1.7%

Toronto Raptors

 41-41 .500

1%
New Orleans Pelicans

42-40

.512

0.5%

Additionally, the Pistons selected Cade Cunningham first overall in the 2021 NBA Draft. When Houston had the top pick in 2002, the Rockets picked Shanghai Sharks standout Yao Ming. San Antonio has not received the top pick since 1997, when the team drafted Tim Duncan out of Wake Forest.

Two other teams to keep an eye on for the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery are the Dallas Mavericks and Chicago Bulls. Dallas is slotted at No. 10. If the Mavs drop out of the top 10 after the lottery, they will send their pick to the New York Knicks. Not to mention, New York is slotted at No. 11. Unless they move into the top four, the Knicks will send their pick to Orlando.

NBA Draft Lottery Past Winners History

Year

NBA Team

Record

NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Player Selected

1985

New York Knicks

24-58

 14.29% Patrick Ewing

1986

Los Angeles Clippers (sent to Cleveland Cavaliers)

32-50

 14.29% Brad Daugherty

1987

San Antonio Spurs

28-54

 14.29% David Robinson

1988

Los Angeles Clippers

17-65

 14.29% Danny Manning

1989

Sacramento Kings

27-55

 11.11% Pervis Ellison

1990

New Jersey Nets

17-65

 16.67% Derrick Coleman

1991

Charlotte Hornets

26-56

 10.61% Larry Johnson

1992

Orlando Magic

21-61

 15.15% Shaquille O’Neal

1993

Orlando Magic (sent to Golden State Warriors)

41-41

 1.52% Chris Webber

1994

Milwaukee Bucks

20-62

 16.3% Glenn Robinson

1995

Golden State Warriors

26-56

 9.4% Joe Smith

1996

Philadelphia 76ers

18-64

 33.73% Allen Iverson

1997

San Antonio Spurs

20-62

 21.6% Tim Duncan

1998

Los Angeles Clippers

17-65

 22.56% Michael Olowokandi

1999

Chicago Bulls

13-37

 15.7% Elton Brand

2000

New Jersey Nets

31-51

 4.4% Kenyon Martin

2001

Washington Wizards

19-63

 15.7% Kwame Brown

2002

Houston Rockets

28-54

 8.9% Yao Ming

2003

Cleveland Cavaliers

17-65

 22.5% LeBron James

2004

Orlando Magic

21-61

 25% Dwight Howard

2005

Milwaukee Bucks

30-52

 6.3% Andrew Bogut

2006

Toronto Raptors

27-55

 8.8% Andrea Bargnani

2007

Portland Trail Blazers

32-50

 5.3% Greg Oden

2008

Chicago Bulls

33-49

 1.7% Derrick Rose

2009

Los Angeles Clippers

19-63

 17.7% Blake Griffin

2010

Washington Wizards

26-56

 10.3% John Wall

2011

Los Angeles Clippers (sent to Cleveland Cavaliers)

32-50

 2.8% Kyrie Irving

2012

New Orleans Hornets

21-45

 13.7% Anthony Davis

2013

Cleveland Cavaliers

24-58

 15.60% Anthony Bennett

2014

Cleveland Cavaliers

33-49

 1.7% Andrew Wiggins

2015

Minnesota Timberwolves

 16-66

25%

 Karl-Anthony Towns

2016

Philadelphia 76ers

10-72

 25% Ben Simmons

2017

Brooklyn Nets (sent to Philadelphia 76ers)

20-62

 25% Markelle Fultz

2018

Phoenix Suns

21-61

 25% Deandre Ayton

2019

New Orleans Pelicans

33-49

 6% Zion Williamson

2020

Minnesota Timberwolves

19-45

 14% Anthony Edwards

2021

Detroit Pistons

20-52

 14% Cade Cunningham

2022

Orlando Magic

22-60

 14% Paolo Banchero

Will Detroit land the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery?

The Detroit Pistons (17-65) hold a 14% probability of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery. After finishing the 2022-23 NBA season with the worst record, the Pistons could use the top pick the most. This past regular season was the fifth and final season under head coach Dwane Casey.

In 1993, the Orlando Magic pulled off the largest upset in NBA draft lottery history when they landed the No. 1 overall pick with just a 1.5% chance to win. Moreover, the Los Angeles Clippers have won five lotteries, the most of the 30 teams. However, two of the first overall selections were sent to other teams in trades prior to the lottery.

Since the weighted lottery system was introduced in 1990, just seven teams with the worst record went on to win the lottery. Orlando has won the second most draft lotteries. The Magic have received the top overall pick four times.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Brooklyn Nets rank third with three lottery wins apiece. Of the aforementioned teams, Detroit would arguably benefit the most from drafting Victor Wembanyama.

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