The Brooklyn Nets enter the 2019-20 NBA season with very different expectations than they did a season ago. Lots of teams enter training camp talking about culture and/or how they’re being overlooked. Well, the Nets were one of the few teams that were right in 2018-19. They entered last season having won only 28 games the season prior and ended the season with 42 wins and a playoff berth.
Being overlooked can benefit a team in numerous ways, but that is not a luxury they will have this season.
The Nets swapped out D’Angelo Russell for Kyrie Irving, they return a fully healthy Caris LeVert and they still have Kevin Durant to look forward to in 2020-21. Further, they fleshed out their depth at the center position and swapped out Allen Crabbe for Taureen Prince. Long story short, the Nets are ready for the national spotlight. Now they’ll have to live up to the hype instead of playing above expectations.
FIVE GUYS THINK…
The Nets became contenders incredibly quickly – going from the laughing stock of the league to the envy of it in about two years. Even with Durant missing most – or probably all – of 2019-20, the Nets will still boast top-10 talent. They swapped out D’Angelo Russell for Kyrie Irving and Jared Dudley for Wilson Chandler (who will serve a 25-game suspension to begin the season). The Rodions Kurucs allegations are unfortunate and troubling, but it’s a single issue rather than an indication of a bad culture within the team. They’ll be fun this season and if Durant returns to form in 2020-21, look out. The one caveat for 2019-20 is if Kyrie can put his ego aside and be the Nets on-the-court leader. He struggled to do so in Boston. But last year was a learning opportunity and Irving should be better prepared to be a team-centric leader with the Nets this year.
3rd Place – Atlantic Division
– Drew Maresca
The Nets had one of the best offseasons in the league. It’s just unfortunate for them that they likely won’t reap the benefits until the 2020-21 season as Kevin Durant is expected to miss the entire year as he recovers from an Achilles injury. Not to worry, Kyrie Irving and company are more than capable of leading the Nets back to the playoffs. Sean Marks inherited a mess of a team when he took over in the front office, and he’s done a remarkable job of cleaning it all up and putting a real contender together. Brooklyn has become a destination for marquee players and that was evident this past summer. Taurean Prince, Garrett Temple, and Wilson Chandler were solid pickups. Jarrett Allen and Rodions Kurucs were spot on draft picks. It will be huge if this team can manage to win a playoff series while Durant recovers.
2nd Place – Atlantic Division
– David Yapkowitz
The Brooklyn Nets have sure come a long way from 2013 when they were trading just about every future draft asset possible in a failed attempt at a title. After a few seasons of smart and patient moves on the periphery, the Brooklyn Nets managed to sign both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant as free agents this offseason. Irving is coming off of a drama-filled season in Boston but is still in his prime and one of the top point guards in the NBA. However, Durant will likely miss this upcoming season after tearing his Achilles tendon in Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals. Despite the lost season for Durant, this is a major win for the Brooklyn Nets, who managed to outmaneuver the New York Knicks in attracting Irving and Durant. Brooklyn made some nice smaller transactions as well, including trading D’Angelo Russell, via sign and trade, along with Shabazz Napier and Treveon Graham to the Golden State Warriors for a protected 2020 first-rounder as part of the deal to acquire Durant. The Nets also added Taurean Prince, who could be a nice addition on the wing, in a trade with the Atlanta Hawks. Signing Garrett Temple to a two-year $9,772,350 contract (team option on final season) is also a good value. However, I’m not a big fan of signing DeAndre Jordan to a four-year, $39,960,716 contract considering his declining performance and with Jarrett Allen already being on the roster. However, Jordan is close friends with Durant, so adding him makes sense and could be a good move if Jordan ends up playing with more intensity than he has in recent seasons. It wasn’t a perfect offseason for Brooklyn, but adding Irving and Durant is a major win and sets Brooklyn up nicely in the short and long-term.
3rd Place – Atlantic Division
– Jesse Blancarte
The Nets have earned their keep and standing in the Association. Behind the brilliance of Sean Marks, they went from one of the most undesirable situations in league history to arguably the healthiest situation in the present day. The success has led to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant making their way to the Barclays Center. Irving will be on his own this year with KD on the sideline, but there’s something about being home that lifts a weight off your shoulder. He’ll leave the drama behind in Boston and Cleveland to start anew under head coach Kenny Atkinson. With a backcourt partner like Caris LeVert, things could get real very fast regarding the cohesiveness and danger this team presents. DeAndre Jordan will be hounding the rim on both ends of the floor, back tapping whatever misses comeand finishing whatever passes he’s thrown. Taurean Prince might’ve been one of the best under-the-radar acquisitions in the league, as his commitment to the defensive end and improvement as a shooter are well-documented. With all of this said, the Atlantic Division rivals the Pacific for the toughest in the Association. Regardless of where they end up, the Nets are playoff-bound again – and this time, it could be a special run.
3rd Place – Atlantic Division
– Spencer Davies
On paper, the Brooklyn nets won the off-season in a walk. They nabbed arguably the top two free agents in the market and added to a roster via trade that was already respectable. The problem is Kyrie Irving was a cancer to the Celtics a year ago, and Kevin Durant may miss most of, if not all of the season to an injury that kills basketball careers. On paper these moves are incredible, but in practice, the Nets may have killed a really good thing. The Nets had built an impressive young core that looked to be a team on the rise but to make it all work they parted with the roster’s only All-Star and went all-in on the named guys. If Irving can bounce back to his All-Star form and buy into his young guys and his coach, then Brooklyn will be better. If Durant can be the guy that comes back from an Achilles to remain an All-Star, the Nets could be title contenders. The problem is neither one of those things seems likely, especially not this year. The Nets bet big, but it remains to be seen if that bet will pay off.
4th Place – Atlantic Division
– Steve Kyler
FROM THE CAP GUY
The Nets were extremely creative over the offseason, maximizing their cap space to sign Kyrie Irving while using D’Angelo Russell in a dual sign-and-trade deal with the Golden State Warriors for Kevin Durant. The move gave Brooklyn a hard cap for the season at $138.9 million, but given the team has 15 guaranteed players at $126.1 million with no additional exceptions, the spending limit is mostly immaterial.
Taurean Prince is eligible for a contract extension before the start of the season. The Nets already reached a deal with Caris LeVert on a three-year, $52.5 million deal. Brooklyn also has to decide on team options for Jarrett Allen and Dzanan Musa before November.
– Eric Pincus
TOP OF THE LIST
Top Offensive Player: Kyrie Irving
Irving’s talent is almost impossible to comprehend. He is a top-five shooter, ballhandler and finisher. He is extremely crafty, can score in isolation, initiate the offense and play off the ball. His defense leaves something to be desired, but mostly because he gives up serious size to opposing guards. He is undoubtedly the Nets most skilled and versatile offensive player – at least until Durant returns from injury. There is enough talent alongside Irving so he doesn’t need to not burn himself out, and can even rest (i.e., load management) when it’s situationally appropriate. Irving will probably start the season with a major chip on his shoulder. But he won’t be judged on how he starts the season – it’s all about how he ends it. Regardless of how he plays, the most important thing will be for Irving to demonstrate patience and a willingness to mentor his new teammates. Taking a true leadership role hasn’t been Irving’s strong suit and displaying progress would make a lot of executives in Brooklyn feel a whole lot better about their investment in him.
Top Defensive Player: Jarrett Allen
Allen boasts a resume that few players throughout the history of the game can, having blocked LeBron James, Blake Griffin, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis and James Harden.
While the newly acquired DeAndre Jordan will eat into his minutes – and possibly even steal his starting job – Allen is the star of the defensive show. Allen isn’t going to hand over the starting job, telling Nets Daily that he prefers to start, but also that he’ll accept whatever role Coach Atkinson assigns him.
Allen has a strong work ethic and a great attitude, especially considering he’s only 21 years old. He still needs to grow his game in a lot of ways, but his defensive instincts have been spot-on throughout his young career – he posted the eleventh most blocks in the league last season in only his second year in the NBA.
A major knock on Allen was on full display in the postseason last year against Joel Embiid and Philadelphia. Embiid made a habit of bullying Allen in the post, and Allen simply couldn’t hold his ground. But according to Nets Daily, Allen added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason, which will come in handy when battling bigger and more physical opponents – and which could help separate him and other above-average rim protectors as early as this season.
Top Playmaker: Spencer Dinwiddie
Spencer Dinwiddie attacks the basket with supreme confidence – he averaged a career high 6.6 points in the paint in 2018-19. But he can also dish the rock, too. He averaged 6.6 assists per game in 2017-18 and 4.6 in 2018-19.
He’ll probably play alongside Irving a bit but since the Nets lack true point guards, he’ll also almost certainly rack up minutes as the lead guard for the Nets’ second unit, allowing him to demonstrate his ability to create for others.
If Dinwiddie can shore up the second unit, the Nets will – once again – boast two top-tier point guards. And the drop off from Irving to Dinwiddie might be the smallest across the entire league as far as starting and backup point guards is concerned, which is a huge buoy to a team’s offensive continuity.
Top Clutch Player: Joe Harris
Joe Harris gained national attention in the last year or so, thanks entirely to his shooting ability. Harris is definitely more than just a shooter, but he is also a certifiable assassin from long-range. He shot 45.9 percent from three-point range last season and ran around screens at an elite level – according NBA.com, Harris ranked 5th in the league in average speed on offense at 5.17 mph. He also shot 47.9 percent on 4.2 attempted catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game.
Also, his time with Team USA this summer should only improve his game and work ethic, having been exposed to superstars and their processes, including Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum.
Harris’ unassuming approach and demeanor also make him a perfect fit with other similar-minded Nets like Jarrett Allen. And having a team-first shooter like Harris is a must for teams hoping to compete for a championship (e.g., Kyle Korver).
The Unheralded Player: Caris LeVert
It might be a stretch to call LeVert unheralded, but the presence of guys like Irving and (eventually) Durant will allow him to fly under the radar, even after a quasi-breakout year last season.
Fresh off of a three-year extension with the Nets, LeVert can now put financial distractions aside and focus exclusively on his game – not that that’s been an issue. He looked primed for an All-Star selection through the first few weeks of last season, but an ankle injury derailed his year and cost him more than 30 games.
A healthy LeVert will benefit from the increased offensive threat that is Kyrie Irving. He is an ideal third option alongside Irving and Durant come 2020. But LeVert will happily develop his game as the second option this season next to Irving – and the Nets could find themselves contending for an NBA title if LeVert takes his game to the next level.
Best New Addition: Kevin Durant
As much as Durant doesn’t affect the on-the-court product this season, building a dynasty is about much more than one year. Durant’s addition truly validates the Nets ascension. They have completely arrived as a force to be reckoned with. Irving was a great addition and boasting a strong core and excellent coaching staff is equally important, but adding a top-three active player moves the needle in the NBA like few other things can. Durant has the luxury of being patient with his rehab and recovery. While rumors already began to circulate about Durant’s return thanks to video of him walking without crutches in Los Angeles this summer, it’s more likely than not that Durant takes his time and returns at the start of the 2020-21 season. And the Nets should do everything in their power to ensure that is the case – unless his recovery is so far ahead of schedule that the team and every expert available all agree that he there is no doubt he is back to 100%.
– Drew Maresca
WHO WE LIKE
1. Dzanan Musa
Musa possesses a good jumper and the ability to guard NBA wings. His potential is obvious. Unfortunately, Musa sprained his ankle before the start of the 2018-19 season and he never found his niche with the club. But considering the Nets moved all of their first-round picks last June, the Nets can look to 2019-20 as Musa’s second rookie year. And it’s not that big of a stretch considering he’s actually younger than the Nets’ actual rookie – Nicholas Claxton. And there is reason to believe that Musa will establish a spot in the rotation. He has a good motor and defensive instincts, and he performed extremely well in his stint in the G-League last season (approximately 20 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game). And more importantly, he added 20-pounds this offseason, which should prepare him to defend more positions.
2. DeAndre Jordan
As much as Allen is the Nets’ defensive anchor, he struggled defending Embiid in the playoffs (as stated above). Jordan’s game is very similar to Allen’s, only he is 10 years older and approximately 30 additional pounds heavier. Having two starting-caliber centers who can’t share the floor with one another – neither of them can stretch the floor – might be unusual for the modern NBA, but it also guarantees that they’ll always have a shot blocker and rim runner available. Signing Jordan to a four-year deal with no team options was curious, but he’s obviously a good addition.
3. Nicholas Claxton
Claxton was rumored to go slightly higher than 31 overall in the 2019 NBA Draft, but the Nets lucked out and grabbed him with the first pick in the second-round. He has above-average length and athleticism and his jump shot showed some potential in his sophomore season at Georgia. He will struggle to secure consistent minutes with Jordan and Allen ahead of him on the depth chart, but he has the ability to learn from two of the best shot blockers and rim-runners in the game. Claxton can definitely grow into a solid back-up center, and he could even develop into a starter if he learns to extend his motor throughout the game and continues to develop offensively.
4. Wilson Chandler
Chandler is a versatile player with a well-rounded offensive game and the ability to defend at least three positions. His three-point shooting has improved dramatically over the years – he shot 30 percent on .9 attempts per game as a rookie and 37.3 percent on 3.1 attempts per game last season. Chandler also adds a significant veteran presence. And at $2.56 million in 2019-20, he will be more than worth the money he’s being paid – once his 25-game suspension for PED use is up.
5. Coach Kenny Atkinson
Coach Atkinson – along with GM Sean Marks – has really streamlined the Nets rebuilding timeline. They seemed so far away only two short years ago, and now they could compete for a championship as early as this season. Atkinson’s pick-and-roll heavy offense was allegedly a draw for Irving and Durant, but his influence supersedes Xs and Os. Atkinson totally rebuilt the team’s culture and he created a great locker room environment, which resulted in his gaining the full trust and support of his locker room. Swapping out Russell for Irving could potentially challenge that last point considering how close the team was last season. Atkinson has his work cut out for him in satisfying two of the tougher players to coach and keep happy. But if anyone can do it, Atkinson can.
– Drew Maresca
Shooting. Joe Harris was among the best shooters in the entire league last season.
As a team, the Nets ranked fourteenth overall in three-point shooting percentage last season and some of their best shooters (by percentages) are no longer on the roster – Russell, Allen Crabbe and Jared Dudley. At first glance, it could be perceived that the Nets are in trouble.
But the Nets actually managed to improve their shooting, at least on paper. They added Irving, who shot 40.1 percent from three-point range in 2018-19. They also added Taurean Prince (39.0 percent from three-point range last season) and Wilson Chandler (37.3 percent from three-point range last season).
All three of the aforementioned players represent upgrades from an efficiency standpoint (although they shoot slightly less than the players they’re replacing). Just think, the Nets could realistically put out a starting lineup with Irving, Harris and Prince – who would have shot above .400 from three-point range last season on above-average volume. And there’s still Chandler, LeVert and Dinwiddie for opponents to contend with.
Further, the Nets weren’t shy in launching threes last season. While they didn’t shoot an elite percentage, they did shoot the fifth most three-pointers last season. So with their upgraded lineup, the Nets stand to take and make even more three-pointers.
– Drew Maresca
Too few stretch fours. The Nets have tremendous versatility – only it’s mostly centered around the guard and center positions. They have two guys who would traditionally be considered point guards (Irving and Dinwiddie), another seven wings (LeVert, Harris, Prince, Chandler, Musa, Kurucs, Temple) and three centers (Allen, Jordan and Claxton) – none of whom are known for shooting or passing from the perimeter. And that’s the vast majority of the Nets roster.
Sure, positionless basketball has been adopted by essentially every team in the league. But that doesn’t mean you don’t need versatile bigs – it just means that you need multi-dimensional ones. The Nets don’t have a single big man who can shoot and handle the ball while also rebounding and maintaining a defensive presence in the paint. Now that is a tall order for most players, but that’s why really good stretch-fours are in such high demand.
The Nets 2018 draft picks—Musa and Kurucs – can both potentially grow into stretch fours; both are 6’9 and both have the offensive characteristics of a modern-day stretch-four. But neither boasts the physique to bang with bigger power forwards. Musa allegedly gained nearly 20-pounds this offseason, but Kurucs’ situation has hit a snag. The Nets are certainly disappointed in Kurucs’ recent legal troubles, and they will be greatly affected by the outcome. But either way, neither is prepared to log heavy minutes at the four spot just yet.
The Nets can definitely play around their deficiency and get by without a stretch-four, but they become significantly better if they’re able to add a top-tier forward who can stretch the floor offensively and bang down low and rebound defensively.
– Drew Maresca
THE BURNING QUESTION
Can Kyrie Irving play nice with others?
It’s hard to say so with certainty. His recent past doesn’t speak highly of his ability to do so. He abruptly asked for a trade from Cleveland, and then he wore out his welcome in Boston thanks to an allegedly holier-than-thou attitude.
But Brooklyn might be different. After all, he likely won’t have to endure any prolonged periods of subpar play, which could change his thinking on things – and that probably won’t happen given the level Coach Atkinson had his team operating at last year.
And further, Irving had selected Brooklyn as his destination of choice. While he requested out of Cleveland, Boston was not on his short list of preferred teams. We haven’t seen a prime, locked-in Irving since the 2016 NBA Finals. His recent experiences will serve him well in his dealings with Durant, LeVert and his other teammates.
Additionally, Irving’s played for some accomplished coaches – but none as universally loved by their teams as Coach Atkinson is in Brooklyn. And because of that, Atkinson can get even more out of Irving than did Mike Brown, David Blatt, Ty Lue or Brad Stevens.
So if Irving is willing to be a big brother to his teammates and help lead the way, he’ll have the requisite support of his coaches – and that could result in the 2019-20 version of Irving being the best we’ve seen yet.
– Drew Maresca
NBA Daily: Hield, Kings Both Have Room To Bargain
Buddy Hield understandably feels as if he’s worth more than the Kings have offered him, but that doesn’t mean he’s worth more than that to Sacramento, specifically. Douglas Farmer writes.
The emotion in Buddy Hield’s voice Wednesday night made it clear his words were not a negotiating ploy. When the fourth-year shooting guard said he would find someplace else to play if the Sacramento Kings did not properly respect him in contract negotiations, he was sincere.
“We’ll see if they’ll have me here,” Hield said. “Feels home to be here. I love Sacramento, but if they don’t feel I’m part of the core … if they don’t want to do it, then after that, I’ll look for somewhere else to go.”
Kings guard Buddy Hield is taking these contract talks very personally. In an emotional postgame interview, he talked about “finding another home” if the team doesn’t get a deal done by Monday’s deadline. pic.twitter.com/sEkJEZfNkS
— Jason Anderson (@JandersonSacBee) October 17, 2019
The Kings have until Monday to reach an agreement on a rookie-scale extension with Hield, who is eligible for a four-year deal north of $130 million or a designated-player extension of five years and $170 million.
But Hield may not be looking for those outlandish numbers. Per Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, Hield is looking for a contract of about $110 million, while Sacramento has offered only $90 million across four years.
“It’s not always about less than the max, it’s just something that’s reasonable and is not an insult,” Hield said. “If we respect each other on that level, we’ll come to that agreement.”
Hield shot 42.7 percent from deep last season on 7.9 attempts per game while averaging 20.7 points. He may not necessarily be worthy of a max contract, but his is a valued skill set in the modern NBA. Combine that with the weak 2020 free agent class, and Hield has some ground to dig in upon at the bargaining table. If an extension is not agreed to, Hield would not be free to go wherever he wishes next summer, but he would be free to pursue that which might force the Kings’ hand as a restricted free agent.
Of wings expected to hit the market next summer, Hield would be joined by Otto Porter, Joe Harris and, possibly, Hield’s current teammate, Bogdan Bogdanović (also restricted). It really could be that shallow of a shooting pool. Gordon Hayward is likely to pick up his $31.2 million player option with the Boston Celtics, while DeMar DeRozan and the San Antonio Spurs are reportedly in discussions. Meanwhile, Caris LeVert has already signed a new deal with the Nets.
That market vacuum could drive up Hield’s summertime price, though Sacramento could still match any offer. If the Kings would match ties into the exact reasons they are risking alienating a core player in the first place. Sacramento has returned to respectability — both in the standings and in perceived approach — by building through the draft. But their bill is almost due.
Hield, Bogdanović, point guard De’Aaron Fox and forward Marvin Bagley are all approaching paydays in the next few seasons. The Kings are almost certainly going to make massive offers to Fox and Bagley in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and those contracts will tie up Sacramento’s books for much of the 2020s. The additional $5 million per year sought by Hield could preclude other moves when combined with Fox’s and Bagley’s deals.
The Kings’ ground is strengthened by holding Bogdanović’s restricted rights, as well. If they lose Hield, they will still have a starting-quality shooting guard to play alongside Fox in Bogdanović. He may not have hit 602 threes in his first three seasons in the league as Hield has, but Bogdanović is currently at 263 through two years, hardly anything to readily dismiss.
Even though Bogdanović will not cost as much as Hield — pondering a $51.4 million, four-year extension — keeping both pieces of the shooting duo may prove too costly for Sacramento owner Vivek Ranadivé. At which point, Hield’s raw emotions Wednesday night may foreshadow Ranadivé’s decision.
Where could Hield go, if for no other reason than to drive up his price?
Any discussion of 2020 free agents must include the Atlanta Hawks, who could have as much as $79.1 million in cap space. Hield would fit both their roster timeline and its general construction, though they did just snag both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish in the 2019 draft. Hield’s minutes would come from the same pool as theirs, making this pairing a bit redundant.
There would be no such conflict with the Dallas Mavericks, whose centerpieces currently miss a wing with range from deep. The Mavericks would lack the space to sign Hield if Tim Hardaway Jr. opts into his $19 million player option, but that could simply precede a sign-and-trade with the Kings. There are certainly ways to make the space necessary should Dallas owner Mark Cuban want to.
If Hield wanted to be a part of another group that is “getting the team back to where it needs to be,” the Memphis Grizzlies would be a situation very similar to Sacramento’s. Forward Jaren Jackson Jr. will see his first big contract begin in 2022 and this year’s No. 2 overall pick Ja Morant should follow that trend a year later. The Grizzlies, however, do not have an exceptional shooter to pair with their young duo. If nothing else, Memphis could drive up the price on Hield to compromise the Kings’ cap space moving forward.
Those possibilities, among others, give Hield practical reason to stand his ground for what he feels he’s worth, while Sacramento’s long view may make it think twice. As emotional and blunt as he was, Hield understands these realities.
“Some people will get the max and some people won’t get the max,” he said. “That’s how it works.”
The Divide On Analytics
The disconnect in the understanding and use of analytics is widespread in today’s basketball landscape. Unearthing the reasoning behind these numbers will not only change how we talk about them, but also revolutionize how we look at the game in the future. Drew Mays writes.
Once upon a time, during a routine, regular season game, a well-regarded shooter was left alone for a corner three. Iman Shumpert, then with Cleveland, rushed to a hard closeout. Seeing Shumpert off balance, the shooter blew by him.
After the play, LeBron James criticized Shumpert for his overaggression. Shump, understandably, was confused – he’s a shooter! Shooters need to get run off the line!
LeBron responded that from that particular corner, the shooter only shot 35 percent – much worse than his overall three-point percentage that garnered his reputation. Accordingly, LeBron would have rather Shumpert closed under control, baiting the shooter into hoisting from a spot he doesn’t like, rather than letting him drive towards the rim with a full head of steam.
This simple knowledge of percentages has merged into the greater conversation of advanced statistics and analytics. Before these numbers were readily available, a respected jump shooter would never be left alone.
Now, the word “analytics” has transformed from a description into a clustered and contentious field. Even though – especially for those of us without data-processing backgrounds and math degrees – the above illustrates what analytics are and what they provide at their core: Information to make decisions on the micro-level and a tool to inform philosophies on the macro-level.
Dean Oliver and John Hollinger are the founding fathers of the basketball analytics movement. Both statisticians, they eventually parlayed their statistical methods and models into NBA front office jobs. These two paved the way for more recent data savants, such as Seth Partnow and Ben Falk, and their positions with professional basketball teams.
In August, Oliver was hired by the Washington Wizards to be a full-time assistant coach. Falk left the NBA a few years ago and has since started his website, Cleaning the Glass. Partnow and Hollinger both departed from their NBA jobs this year, returning to the media as staff writers for The Athletic.
Selfishly, the advantage of having Falk, Partnow and Hollinger back in the public sphere is the access we have to their brains. Partnow’s latest work is particularly geared towards analytics, and Falk and Hollinger’s are always rooted in them. Reading their work will increase your understanding of how basketball works in its current form and help develop your ideas about where it’s going.
The issue is this: Smart guys talking about numbers seems inaccessible…no matter how accessible it actually is.
Despite the talent of these three – and of all the other mathematicians writing in today’s media – there’s still a misunderstanding between those who wield statistics and those who don’t. Many times, even the players are part of the separation.
On Tuesday, Bulls guard Zach LaVine said this to the Chicago Sun-Times:
“I grew up being a Michael Jordan, Kobe [Bryant] fan… I think the mid-range is a lost art now because everyone is moving towards the threes and the analytics. I understand that because how it looks and how it sounds like it makes sense, but sometimes there’s nothing better than putting the ball in your best playmaker’s hands and letting him get the shot he needs rather than the one you want.”
This led to a revival of the discussion on ESPN’s The Jump. Rachel Nichols seemed to agree with LaVine in part, saying, “two is greater than zero.” Kevin Arnovitz followed with points important for our purpose, calling the death of the mid-range a “false dichotomy.”
“No one is saying, if a guy is wide-open at 19-feet, dribble backwards and take a shot… for Zach LaVine, it’s all about impulse control,” Arnovitz continued.
Impulse control in the sense that deciding when to take a mid-range shot is almost all of the battle. Context matters.
Matt Moore of The Action Network used The Jump’s clip to chime in. Moore tweeted, and then Kevin Durant responded.
The abbreviated version of the Moore-Durant thread is this: Durant, a historically great mid-range jump shooter, argues the side of, well, a historically great jump shooter. He talks about taking open shots regardless of where they come and a player’s confidence and feel.
Moore counters using the math. The refreshing conversation ends when another Twitter user points out that, since the analytics movement, James Harden’s mid-range attempts have dipped drastically. Durant admits he didn’t realize this.
The most telling part of the misunderstandings surrounding analytics came from Durant. He said, “I don’t view the game as math…I get what you’re saying but we just have 2 different views of the game. Analytics is a good way to simplify things.”
And that, folks, is the rub. That is the separation between fans, players and the John Hollingers of the world – the assumption that statisticians use advanced metrics and therefore see basketball as a math problem, while everyone else analyzes by merely watching the game (because of course, watching the games inherently equals reliable analysis).
But analytics isn’t a high-concept way to digitize the game and ignore the “eye test” Twitter fingers love to cite; they’re mathematical truths used to assess basketball success. Often, the air surrounding analytics is that it’s like me, an English major, taking freshman-year Calculus – impossible to understand. Because again, smart people explaining numbers can be daunting, even when they do it perfectly.
Truthfully, analytics are just more precise ways of discerning what happened in a basketball game. As Ben Taylor explains in one of his breakdowns, Chauncey Billups shooting 43 percent is more effective than Ben Wallace shooting 51 percent for a season. Billups is providing threes and making more free throws at a better rate, so even with Wallace’s higher raw field goal percentage, he’d need to be more accurate from two-point range to match Billups’ efficiency.
You don’t need to even study actual numbers to see why these statistical categories make the game easier to understand.
But, and this is another oft-forgotten point, these calculations are useless without context. In 2015-16, a Kawhi Leonard mid-range – when contextualized with qualifiers like time left on the shot clock – was a good shot. He right around 50 percent from 10-16 feet, so the advantage of taking a three over a two would be offset by Leonard’s 50 percent accuracy. During the same season, Kobe Bryant shot 41 percent from 10-16 feet. A Kobe baseline fadeaway with 14 seconds on the shot clock and a help defender coming from the high side is a bad mid-range shot.
Kevin Durant shot 58 percent from two last season. He shot 54 percent from 3-10 feet, 51 percent from 10-16 feet and 53.5 percent from 16 feet out to the three-point line.
Meanwhile, from those same distances, Zach LaVine shot 26 percent, 30 percent and 38 percent.
A mid-range jumper from Kevin Durant is usually a good shot. A mid-range jumper from Zach LaVine probably isn’t.
So, is the mid-range dead? Not completely. The last few champions rostered mid-range experts (Kawhi, Durant, Kyrie Irving), and some of the last remaining teams last season had one as well (Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum).
Does a correlation then exist between mid-range proficiency and winning titles? Again, that’s doubtful. There’s a correlation between great players and titles, and great players usually have the mid-range game in their arsenal. That’s part of what makes them great players: the lack of holes in their games.
The discrepancies in Durant and LaVine’s two-point numbers can be found in talent level and the quality of looks. Both affect the percentages. Again, context matters.
To Durant’s point on Twitter: It is, on some level, a matter of practice. If LaVine keeps putting in the work, he can become a better mid-range shooter, making those looks more efficient.
But as a starting base, we’d say it’s better for LaVine and players like him to not settle for mid-range twos. We’re not too upset if Durant does it.
Even in the age of analytics, basketball will always in part be a matter of feel. It will always be scrutinized by the eyes. And that’s okay – because advanced statistics give context to the effectiveness of those feelings being acted on.
Maybe the point is this: If the shot clock is winding down and you have the ball out top with a defender locked in front of you and have to hoist a shot…don’t take the long two. Please shoot the three.
It’s more effective. The math says so.
NBA Daily: Already, Zion Williamson Has Importance
The preseason has made clear that Zion Williamson will be an abject positive throughout his rookie campaign. But the extent of his success remains to be seen and Williamson could drastically alter a loaded Western Conference playoff race.
Zion Williamson will be the best rookie in basketball this season, and it won’t be particularly close. The New Orleans Pelicans star is considered a generational prospect for a reason: The league has literally never before seen a player with his combination of size, strength and explosive athleticism.
But just because Williamson is a truly unparalleled physical specimen doesn’t mean his acclimation to basketball at its highest level is poised to be seamless. His lack of a reliable jumper was occasionally exploited at Duke and will allow far superior NBA defenders to lay off him, guarding against forays to the paint. He’s not ready to function as anything close to a primary ball-handler, further cramping the floor for a Pelicans team short on shooting. He should be a plus defender at the very least in time but is bound to go through the same struggles of schematic understanding and real-time recognition that plagues all first-year players.
But through four preseason games, Williamson has been so utterly dominant as to render those relative concerns almost completely moot. He’s averaging 23.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals in exhibition play so far, shooting a mind-bending 71.4 percent from the floor and attempting 8.0 free throws despite playing just 27.2 minutes per game. Williamson has a 34.2 PER, and his plus-28.8 net rating leads New Orleans by a wide margin, according to RealGM.
The normal caveats apply, of course. Preseason competition is barely a reasonable facsimile of what Williamson will face during the regular season, when opponents will employ their best players and lineups, play with consistent energy and engagement and, maybe most importantly, gear their strategy around limiting his effectiveness. He certainly wouldn’t be the first rookie whose stellar exhibition performance failed to carry over to the 82-game grind.
But Williamson has nevertheless shown enough during these glorified scrimmages to expect him to be a true impact player from the jump. Alvin Gentry has used him most as a dependent offensive weapon thus far, taking advantage of Williamson’s inherent physical trump cards by getting him the ball in space via rolls to the rim and letting him attack from the corner with a live dribble. He’s been especially unstoppable in the open floor and semi-transition, sprinting the wing for highlight-reel finishes and catching the defense on its heels with quick-hitting dribble hand-offs.
These aren’t especially innovative offensive concepts and teams will know they’re coming throughout the regular season. Williamson is just so much more athletically gifted than his defenders that, more often than not, they’ll be left helpless to stop him regardless.
Williamson won’t maintain his incredible blend of production and efficiency during the regular season. Only four players in league history have ever scored at least 20 points per game while shooting 60 percent or better from the field, per Basketball Reference. Williamson may very well eventually join that exclusive list of all-time greats, but counting on him to do so in 2019-20 only goes to compound outlandish expectations that could lead to an unfair appraisal of his debut campaign.
Unless, naturally, Williamson proves so good that he leads the rebuilt Pelicans to the playoffs in perhaps the most stacked Western Conference ever.
The Western Conference’s top six of the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, in some order, seems clear. The Portland Trail Blazers, despite some quiet churn in the middle of the roster, deserve the same benefit of the doubt the San Antonio Spurs earned years ago.
That’s eight teams vying for eight slots, before accounting for the intrigue and unknown of the Dallas Mavericks. The Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves have internal hopes of competing for the postseason, too.
Needless to say, the odds aren’t good for New Orleans, a team that underwent as much turnover as any in basketball during an extremely active offseason. Continuity of personnel and playing style is often the difference between a few extra wins and losses, but the Pelicans have neither in a season where they’ll try to force themselves into the postseason conversation.
The presence of a singular player like Williamson allows for the possibility that it might not matter.
Luka Doncic is coming off one of the most impressive rookie seasons of the decade, and Kristaps Porzingis, even 20 months removed from his last time taking the floor, is the living embodiment of game-changing two-way potential. De’Aaron Fox might be the most underrated player in basketball at 21, while the Kings mitigated the need for Marvin Bagley to pop this season by rounding out the roster with solid veterans. Karl-Anthony Towns will put up monster numbers for a Timberwolves team that’s finally and whole-heartedly embracing tenets of the modern game under Ryan Saunders and Gersson Rosas.
For the most part, though, we know the variance between those ceilings and floors this season and, by proxy, how high they could potentially lift their teams. Williamson is a different dynamic altogether. The preseason has laid bare that he’ll immediately be a positive player on offense, but there are many degrees to the extent of his possible effectiveness.
Will Williamson serve as a less-efficient, lower-usage version of the highlight-reel player he’s been in the preseason? Might this current level of play be his basic norm, with nights of inconsistency sprinkled in between? Or could he grow significantly as the season goes on, shouldering more ball-handling responsibilities and increasing his defensive awareness – unlocking small-ball lineups in which Gentry plays him at center – as the calendar flips to the new year and winter turns to spring?
It would be foolish to put a cap on Williamson’s success this season, just like it would be foolish to expect him to be an All-Star. But that gulf between wildly positive outcomes of his rookie season puts the Pelicans in a better position to pounce when an incumbent inevitably falls from the pack than any other team entering the season with long-shot playoff hopes.
Williamson definitely won’t be the best player in the Western Conference in 2019-20, maybe not even the best player on his team. But in terms of an effect on the playoff race, though, not a single player’s performance stands to loom larger.