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Head-to-Head: Best Restricted Free Agent

Our experts debate over the best upcoming restricted free agent.

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Restricted free agency is often an undesirable process for a player. The team that issued the qualifying offer, which is necessary to restrict a player’s free agency, has all of the leverage – as we saw this past summer with Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe. They can scare teams away from tying up their money for up to three days while they make their decision, only to match the offer anyway. Then, once the market is depleted, the player lacks the negotiating power and either has to accept what he’s being offered or wait a on the one-year tender before becoming an unrestricted free agent. This summer, though, there is going to be a quality crop of restricted free agents who will draw the interest of teams despite the difficulty behind signing them. We asked Nate Duncan, Joel Brigham and Alex Kennedy to debate over who they think is the best of the lot:

How many times do we have to sing Jimmy Butler’s praises before we come to the conclusion that he is, in fact, a burgeoning star who is bound to be the toast of next summer’s restricted free agency period?

At least one more time, apparently.

While there are plenty of talented young players slated to be restricted free agents in about seven months, Butler is the only one on pace to have an All-Star selection under his belt. The way Jimmy Buckets has played this year, averaging 21.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.5 SPG on .483/.830/.342 shooting, it sure does look as though he’ll be named to his first All-Star game, and there’s an even better chance that he’ll be named the league’s Most Improved Player at the end of the season, as well.

It sounds ridiculous to say that he could even be named to an All-NBA team until we remind ourselves that he was the Eastern Conference Player of the Month in both October and November. This kid is really, really good, so talking about him the way we talked about Paul George two years ago is not a stretch. They’re actually very similar players, and if George were 100 percent healthy and on the free agency market, every team in the league would be frothing at the mouth.

Even as a restricted free agent, which tends to make teams hesitate, Butler looks like he’ll generate plenty of interest. Before this season, he looked as though he’d get paid well anyway because of his ability to play show-stopping defense and knock down the occasional three-pointer. This year, though, he’s boosted his scoring efficiency by an ungodly amount, which has turned him into the kind of two-way threat that all NBA teams would love to have.

Best of all for Butler is that nobody really has any idea whether Chicago will match a max offer. If other organizations know a team will match anything, there’s no way they’re tying up their money for a few days while other top free agents fly off the market. With Butler, though, there’s a strong chance he could be stolen away if max money is in the mix. That makes him even more desirable than someone like Kawhi Leonard.

Whatever the money looks like, though, he’ll be in demand, and teams will do whatever they can to get their mitts on him. Butler is a star about to make star money, and it’s money that he deserves.

– Joel Brigham

While other restricted free agents have had breakout years, it is difficult to argue that the prize of the class is anyone other than the reigning Finals MVP, Kawhi Leonard. As Joel detailed, Jimmy Butler has been awesome this year. He has outperformed Leonard in the box score, as Leonard has struggled with an eye infection and a hand injury. The Spurs wing has taken a step back with his efficiency as he has been asked to carry more of an offensive load. But Gregg Popovich believes in Leonard’s potential as an offensive centerpiece, running a lot of after-timeout plays for Leonard to create.

The two are similarly effective defensively, with Butler perhaps a better lockdown artist but Leonard a more effective team defender with his length and help instincts. And while Butler has been more effective creating offense this year than Leonard has ever been, the spacing provided by his superior three-point shooting gives more room to his teammates. Leonard has also shown more versatility than Butler so far, playing at times as a small-ball four. Butler might have that in him, but we don’t know as he has not had the chance to exhibit that.

Right now, one could argue that Butler and Leonard are similar quality players. But Leonard is 23, while Butler (who spent four years in school at Marquette) is already 25. That two-year difference in age makes up the difference in their performances this year, especially considering that Butler has been well above his established level of performance this year and could regress a bit.

Thanks to Popovich’s philosophy (in which no player averaged more than 30 minutes last year) Leonard also has a lot less miles on him than Butler, who by the end of this year will have been playing basically entire games for the past year and a half. While it is close, I would rather give a max five-year contract to Leonard this summer due to his age, shooting ability and lower mileage.

– Nate Duncan

While it’s clear that Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard are the most talented restricted free agents available, I think Tobias Harris deserves some love as well. He’s not on the same level as Butler or Leonard, but he could be a more realistic target for a number of teams since he likely won’t be getting a max offer sheet like Butler or Leonard and because those two seem like locks to have any offer sheet matched by their respective teams. Harris may not be the best player of the bunch, but he could be the top restricted free agent who is actually somewhat obtainable.

Harris is reportedly looking for a contract in the $12-14 million per year range, and based on his play this season, he should be able to find a team willing to offer something close to that. Harris wants to remain in Orlando, according to league sources, and was hoping to sign an extension prior to the Oct. 31 deadline, but the two sides couldn’t reach a deal. In fact, the two sides didn’t even have advanced talks. According to sources close to the situation, Harris’ camp talked with Magic brass in September about the upcoming negotiations and agreed to talk numbers at a later date, but that conversation never happened. It seems that Orlando didn’t want to extend Harris, choosing instead to let the market set Harris’ price instead. The Magic extended center Nikola Vucevic, signing him to a four-year deal worth $48 million (plus incentives), but took a wait-and-see approach with Harris.

The problem with that strategy is that a team could offer Harris a strategically structured offer sheet that makes Orlando hesitant to match, just as the Dallas Mavericks did with Chandler Parsons to steal him away from the Houston Rockets. The deal Harris inks could be a short-term pact with player options, a trade kicker and other things that aren’t very team friendly. The team extending the offer sheet has every incentive to structure the deal like that, so that they have a shot at prying him away from Orlando. Magic general manager Rob Hennigan has said that he can’t envision a scenario where Harris isn’t on the team long-term, so it sounds like he’s planning to match any offer the forward receives. However, restricted free agency is an unpredictable process; nobody thought that Parsons would leave the Rockets or that Jeremy Lin would leave the New York Knicks when he was restricted either. Nobody knows what will happen in July.

Harris will have a long list of potential suitors, as he is only 22 years old and has emerged as a potential star since being traded from the Milwaukee Bucks to the Magic in his second season. Now, he’s having a career-year, averaging 18.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and one steal in 35.5 minutes. He has been Orlando’s leading scorer and go-to option as well as their best clutch player, hitting a number of game-winning shots.

The New York Knicks have been mentioned as possible suitor for Harris, as he is from Long Island and is good friends with Carmelo Anthony (they even work out together in the summer). The Los Angeles Lakers could be an option as well, since he would fit in with their young core and be the leading scorer that they need for life after Kobe Bryant. If teams like the Knicks and Lakers strike out on some of the big-name free agents, Harris could get a serious look.

Butler and Leonard are clearly stars, but that just means it’s extremely unlikely that they’ll be joining a new team this summer. It’s the players like Harris, Reggie Jackson, Brandon Knight, Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert, etc. who may be on the move after signing an offer sheet.

– Alex Kennedy

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NBA

NBA Daily: Wiggins The X-Factor for Warriors

Stephen Curry will always be the face of the Golden State Warriors, and for good reason. Draymond Green spearheads their defensive attack but the key to their postseason fate lies in the hands of a guy that many people had already given up on.

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The 2020-21 regular season was a strange one for many reasons, but especially for the Golden State Warriors. Shortly before the NBA Draft, the team’s championship aspirations took a major hit with the injury to Klay Thompson. The best backcourt in the league would not be on full display this season, but they still had two-time MVP, Stephen Curry, to put on a show.

Curry did just that, dazzling basketball fans on a near-nightly basis. The sensational shots, ridiculous plays and high-drama situations were must-see TV that kept the Warriors in the national spotlight. To that end, Curry captured the scoring title for the second time in his career, averaging 32.0 points per game this season.

With limited options available to fill Thompson’s void, the team managed to add Kelly Oubre Jr to the roster, although it came at a steep cost. His salary is $14.4 million this season but because of Golden State’s luxury tax bill, ESPN’s Bobby Marks noted that adding Oubre would cost an additional $82.4 million, bringing their total to $134 million.

After a career year in Phoenix, Oubre struggled mightily trying to fit in with this group. Sometimes players in new situations can try to do too much at first, or sometimes pass on open shots in order to not seem selfish. Neither of these was the case for Oubre, who simply could not put the ball in the basket. His early-season shooting struggles had the Warriors pegged for the Draft Lottery.

Oubre eventually turned it around and began playing like himself. Another new face in the Bay area was rookie James Wiseman. He too struggled at the beginning of the season, which is to be expected for someone in his situation. The seven-footer from Memphis only played a handful of games in college and was trying to learn the NBA game on the fly. A season-ending injury cut short his rookie season, but he showed promise for the future.

The future is not something that Curry has on his mind. He and Draymond Green are playing to win now. That starts on Wednesday with their highly-anticipated showdown with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers. The league has quite the matchup to cap the new Play-In-Tournament.

Amid all of the highlight plays from Curry and all of the noise surrounding Green, one player sits in the shadows and is rarely mentioned. Andrew Wiggins was all the rage when he was selected number one overall in the 2014 NBA Draft. The former Kansas Jayhawk earned Rookie of the Year honors but ultimately struggled to find his place in Minneapolis.

After more than five seasons with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Wiggins was traded to the Warriors in February of last season. Now having played a full season in a Warriors uniform, Wiggins could be their x-factor in the postseason.

One of the knocks on Wiggins has always been his drive, and his passion to reach his full potential. He has all of the physical tools and attributes to be one of the most prolific two-way players in the league. Sometimes the effort just isn’t there, but that narrative seems to have gone out the window. Wiggins has been playing excellent on both ends of the floor, which has translated to wins for the depleted Warriors.

While many people point to his scoring slightly declining, he still scored 19 points per game despite playing the fewest minutes of his career. He finished inside the top 40 in scoring this season. The real story for Wiggins is his efficiency, which has been incredible. He shot a career-high 48 percent from the floor this season and a career-best 38 percent from three-point range. His 54 percent effective field goal percentage is also the highest of his career.

As they prepare to battle the Lakers for the 7th seed in the Western Conference, Golden State must find ways to get stops on the defensive end. Stopping the likes of James, Davis and Dennis Schroder on the perimeter will be paramount to their success. It is easier said than done, but this is where Wiggins’ value can be felt. The Toronto native will be called upon to match up against James often, with Green defending their big men.

Wiggins finished fourth in Defensive RPM (2.72) this season at his position, 21st among all players in the league. That is by far the best of his career, as he ranked 85th last season among small forwards. He also finished inside the top five in the league in terms of contested three-point shots. That is important for the Warriors going forward, should they face the Phoenix Suns or Utah Jazz in the first round. Utah was the top three-point shooting team in the league and Phoenix was seventh-best in terms of percentage.

As if facing James and Davis weren’t difficult enough, the Warriors will have their hands full no matter which opponent they face next. Both have dynamic backcourts with Mike Conley/Donovan Mitchell in Utah and Chris Paul/Devin Booker in Phoenix. Wiggins will be tasked with trying to slow them down as well. There is elite talent everywhere you look out West.

Golden State finished the regular season with a 110.1 defensive rating, which was top five in the league. They managed to do that despite having a depleted roster and having the third-highest pace (102.2) in the league. Much of the credit will go to Green and Oubre but Wiggins has been a major factor in their defensive schemes.

Curry and Green have combined to play in 235 playoff games during their careers. Wiggins has only appeared in five playoff games, so this will be a new experience for him. The pressure always goes up in the postseason, and the Play-In Tournament is no exception.

Shortly after acquiring Wiggins, Steve Kerr put All-Defense expectations on him. “Defensively, we will ask him to take on the challenge of what that position entails. Guarding some of the best players in the league and adapting to our schemes and terminology.” To his credit, Wiggins has done just that.

Wiggins will not win the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award this season. He isn’t going to win the Defensive Player of the Year either. While those accolades matter to a lot of players, Wiggins is just focused on improving and winning games. The Warriors hope to do the same as they return to postseason play.

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NBA Daily: Examining Michael Porter Jr.’s Ascension

Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging over 25 points per game and looks like a future All-NBA player. Bobby Krivitsky examines Porter’s ascent and the questions that come with it.

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Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to new heights.

In the wake of Murray’s ACL tear in mid-April, Porter’s playing time has gone from 30.6 minutes per contest to 35.7, while his shots per game have risen from 12.6 per game to 16.5. The increased responsibility has fueled his ascent. He’s knocking down 56.3 percent of those attempts. He’s taking 8.2 threes per game and making a blistering 50 percent of them. As a result, Porter’s gone from averaging 17.5 points per game to 25.1. He’s also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and blocking almost one shot per contest.

At the time of Murray’s injury, the Denver Nuggets were in fourth place in the Western Conference. They remain there now, 9-4 in his absence, and they boast the eighth-highest net rating in the NBA.

The only way for the Nuggets to fall from fourth would be if they lost their four remaining games and the Dallas Mavericks won their final five contests because the Mavericks have the tiebreaker since they won the season series. On the more realistic end of the spectrum, Denver sits just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Clippers, who occupy the third seed in the West. The Nuggets won their season series against the Clippers, meaning they’d finish in third if the two teams ended the regular season with the same record.

There’s a bevy of questions surrounding Porter’s recent play that need to be asked but cannot get answered at the moment. That starts with whether this is anything more than a hot streak. While it’s impossible to say definitively, it’s reasonable to believe Porter can consistently and efficiently produce about 25 points per game. He was the second-ranked high school prospect in 2017 and entered his freshman year at Missouri firmly in the mix for the top pick in the 2018 NBA draft. That was thanks in large part to his offensive prowess as a 6-10 wing with a smooth shot that’s nearly impossible to block because of the elevation he gets when he shoots. 

A back injury cost him all but 53 minutes of his collegiate career and caused him to fall to the 14th pick in the draft. He ended up in an ideal landing spot, going to a well-run organization that’s also well aware of its barren track record luring star players looking to change teams, making it vital for the Nuggets to hit on their draft picks. 

Porter’s first year in the NBA was exclusively dedicated to the rehab process and doing everything possible to ensure he can have a long, healthy and productive career. Last season, finally getting a chance to play, he showed off the tantalizing talent that made him a top prospect but only took seven shots per game while trying to fit in alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant.

More experience, including battling against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, an offseason, albeit a truncated one, to prepare for a more substantial role with Grant joining the Detroit Pistons and Millsap turning 36 this year, helped propel Porter. 

But for the Nuggets, before Murray’s injury, the perception was that even though they weren’t the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, they were a legitimate title contender. How far can they go if Porter’s consistently contributing about 25 points and over six rebounds per game while effectively playing the role of a second star alongside Jokic? 

It seems fair to cross Denver off the list of title contenders. But, if Porter continues to capably play the role of a second star alongside Jokic when doing so becomes more challenging in the postseason, the Nuggets can advance past a team like the Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers. And at a minimum, they’d have the ability to make life difficult for whoever they had to face in the second round of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the timing of Murray’s ACL tear, which happened in mid-April, means there’s a legitimate possibility he misses all of next season. Denver’s increased reliance on Porter is already allowing a young player with All-NBA potential to take on a role that’s closer to the one he’s assumed his whole life before making it to the sport’s highest level. If the Nuggets are counting on him to be the second-best player on a highly competitive team in the Western Conference next season, it’ll be fascinating to see what heights he reaches and how far they’re able to go as a team.

Theoretically, Porter’s growth could make it difficult for Denver to reacclimate Murray. But given Jokic’s unselfish style of play, there’s room for both of them to be satisfied by the volume of shots they’re getting. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have to wait, potentially another season, but Jokic is 26-years-old, Murray 24, Porter 22. When Denver has their Big Three back together, they could be far more potent while still being able to enjoy a lengthy run as legitimate title contenders.

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NBA Daily: D’Angelo Russell Back on Track

D’Angelo Russell lost much of the 2020-21 season to injury. Drew Maresca explains why his return will surprise people around the league.

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D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves last February, just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the entire season. But we’ve yet to see what Russell can really do in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves acquired Russell in late February in exchange for a future first-round pick – which transitions this season if they pick later than third – a 2021 second-round pick and Andrew Wiggins.

Sidenote: For those keeping score at home, the Timberwolves currently have the third-worst record in the league with five games remaining. It would behoove Minnesota to lose as many of their remaining games as possible to keep their 2021 pick. If the pick does not transition this season, it becomes unrestricted in 2020.

Trying to turn an owed pick into an unprotected future first is usually the wrong move; but in this instance, it’s better to keep the high first-rounder this year with an understanding that your 2022 pick will probably fall in or around the middle of the lottery.

The thinking around the deal was that Minnesota could qualify for the playoffs as soon as this season by swapping Wiggins’ contract for a young, talented lead guard in Russell. It has not played out as planned.

COVID resulted in a play stoppage shortly after the deal, robbing Russell of the opportunity to ramp up with his new team. When the NBA returned to finish the 2019-20 season, the Timberwolves failed to qualify for bubble play – and considering the US was still battling a global pandemic, Russell couldn’t easily practice with his new teammates and/or coaches.

The 2020-21 season began weirdly, too. The NBA proceeded with an abbreviated training camp and preseason. And while this impacted all teams, Russell was additionally hindered by the decision.

Ready or not, the season began. In 2020-21, Russell is averaging a near-career low in minutes per game (28.2) across just 36 games. He’s tallying 19.1 points per game on 43.6% shooting and a career-best 38.8% on three-point attempts. He’s also he’s posting a near career-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7 to 2.8).

Despite Russell’s contributions, the Timberwolves have failed to meet expectations. Far from the playoff squad they hoped to be, Minnesota is in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft. So what has gone wrong in Minneapolis?

Russell’s setbacks are fairly obvious. In addition to the lack of preparation with his teammates and coaches, Russell was diagnosed with a “loose body” in his knee, requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in February. As a result, he missed 27 consecutive games. Russell returned on April 5, but head coach Chris Finch revealed that he’d been on a minutes restriction until just recently.

Minnesota is clearly being cautious with Russell. Upon closer review, Russell has been restricted to under 30 minutes per game in all of his first 10 games back. Since then, Russell is averaging 31 minutes per game including an encouraging 37 minutes on May 5 in a four-point loss to Memphis.

Since returning from knee surgery, Russell is averaging 27 minutes per game across 16 games. Despite starting 19 of the team’s first 20 games, he hadn’t started in any game since returning – until Wednesday.

On the whole, Russell’s impact is about the same as it was prior to the injury, which should be encouraging to Timberwolves’ fans. He’s scoring slightly less (18.8 points since returning vs. 19.3 prior), shooting better from the field (44.9% since returning vs 42.6%% prior) and has been just slightly worse from three-point range (37.4% since vs. 39.9 prior). He’s dishing out more assists per game (6.5 since vs. 5.1 prior), too, and he posted three double-digit assist games in his last five contents – a feat achieved only once all season prior to his last five games.

Despite playing more and dropping more dimes, there’s still room to improve. Looking back to his career-bests, Russell averaged 23.1 points per game in 2019-20 in 33 games with Golden State (23.6) and 12 games with Minnesota (21.7).

But his most impactful season came in 2018-19 with the Brooklyn Nets. That season, Russell averaged 21.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, leading the Nets to the playoffs and earning his first trip to the All-Star game. He looked incredibly comfortable, playing with supreme confidence and flashing the ability to lead a playoff team.

At his best, Russell is a dynamic playmaker. The beauty of Russell is that he can also play off the ball. He has a quick release on his jumper and impressive range. His game is not predicated on athleticism, meaning he should stay at his peak for longer than guys like De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant.

And while he’s been in the league for what feels like ever (six seasons), Russell just turned 25 approximately two months ago. Granted, comparing anyone to Steph Curry is unwise, but Curry wasn’t Steph Curry yet at 25. Former MVP Steve Nash hadn’t yet averaged double-digits (points) at 25. Twenty-five is also an inflection point for Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. And the list goes on.

To be fair, Russell was drafted at 19 so he’s more acclimated to the league at this age than most, but his game will continue expanding nonetheless. He’ll develop trickier moves, become stronger and grow his shooting range. And a good deal of that growth should be evident as soon as next season since he’ll be fully healed from knee surgery and have a full offseason and training camp to finally work with teammates and coaches.

So while Minnesota’s 2020-21 season was incredibly bleak, their future is quite bright – and much of it has to do with the presence of Russell.

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