The Cleveland Cavaliers enter the 2019-20 campaign with a whole bunch of questions. There’s new head coach John Beilein coming in to take hold of the team’s direction and a trio of rookies being added to the mix of – for the most part – a youthful group of guys looking to make the most of the opportunities presented to them.
On the player and coaching front, this will be a season of development and growth more than one set out on the final results, though we will probably see the maturation over the course of the year. At the end of the day, this team is likely lottery-bound once more, but the players in the locker room want to show that they’re for real and can get into the postseason picture. Unfortunately, they’ll have their work cut out for them in a quickly improving Central Division.
One year removed from the start of another project without LeBron James, let’s see where this new era of Cavaliers basketball is headed.
FIVE GUYS THINK…
The Cavaliers are still in the beginning phase of a rebuild. They haven’t identified a go-to player around whom a playoff team can be built. They do have some nice young pieces; however, there is some redundancy in their rotation. First-year head coach John Beilein will have his hands full in trying to identify which point guard – Brandon Knight, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland – will be their lead guard of this year and the future. Ultimately though, the narrative of the season in Cleveland will be what they do with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson. But to be clear, the Cavaliers are making strides, but there’s a lot of rebuilding left to do.
5th place – Central Division
– Drew Maresca
The Cavaliers had themselves a solid draft night. They picked up a few intriguing players in Darius Garland, Kevin Porter Jr. and Dylan Windler. One of the biggest question marks heading into the season is can Garland coexist in the backcourt with Collin Sexton? Both are undersized guards who aren’t really true playmakers. Expect to see new head coach John Beilein experiment with that pairing this season. This team is clearly in full rebuild, so don’t be surprised if Kevin Love’s name comes up in trade talks quite often. It’s going to be another tough year for the Cavaliers, but the name of the game for them is development. If the younger guys show improvement and consistency throughout the year, it will be a successful season for Cleveland.
5th Place – Central Division
– David Yapkowitz
It was difficult to watch the half-LeBron, half-young-guy roster of the Cleveland Cavaliers last year. The remnants of the championship years were frustrated and it wasn’t helping the player development side of things, so the team underwent major changes throughout the season. This one coming up is essentially a clean slate under head coach John Beilein and a trio of rookies joining Kevin Love. There will be plenty of ups and downs with an extremely inexperienced bunch collectively but, at worst, they’ll push forward in the culture shift focusing on growing their young duo of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, amongst others. Unfortunately for them, the wins won’t come easily and that will show with a second straight ending in the Central Division.
5th Place – Central Division
– Spencer Davies
The Cleveland Cavaliers are somewhat in limbo with an expensive roster and insufficient talent to be a viable playoff team. However, outside of Kevin Love, the Cavaliers’ other big contracts either expire after this upcoming season or decline each year moving forward (as is the case for Larry Nance Jr.). Thus, the main focus right now is adding assets and young prospects and building a culture that the players can develop in effectively. The Cavaliers, despite some mixed opinions, added some nice prospects in this year’s draft. Cleveland drafted Darius Garland (5th), Dylan Windler (26th) and traded 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024 second-rounders and $5 million to the Detroit Pistons for the rights to Kevin Porter Jr. (30th). Garland plays the same position as Collin Sexton, whom Cleveland drafted eighth overall in last year’s draft. However, I am a firm believer in drafting the best talent available even if there is some overlap on the roster, so I am generally a fan of this move. This season is mostly a bridge to next year when Cleveland gets a lot more flexibility and another year of development for their younger players.
5th Place – Central Division
– Jesse Blancarte
The Cavaliers are in a rebuild, and rebuilds suck.
The upcoming season for Cavaliers fans will likely be more about watching Darius Garland and Collin Sexton figure each other out, more so than anything meaningful in the win-loss column. Sure there are veterans on the roster that have been to the NBA Finals, like Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, but neither are going to anchor Cleveland as a playoff contender — it’s more likely they play themselves into trade bait. That’s just the sad reality of the rebuild.
The good news is that Love and Thompson may return value in a trade, same as veteran John Henson, who is on an expiring deal. As the Cavaliers try to re-make themselves, how much those veterans return will tell the story of how long the rebuild will take, especially if the Garland/Sexton pairing is more like John Wall/Bradley Beal than Damian Lillard/CJ McCollum.
5th Place – Central Division
– Steve Kyler
FROM THE CAP GUY
The Cavaliers have whittled down their salary for the 2019-20 season below the NBA’s $132.6 million luxury tax line. Provided the team stays below, they’ll reset their repeater tax clock (earned from massive payrolls through the more recent LeBron James era). That means they’ll probably leave their exceptions unused (Mid-Level, Bi-Annual and a few small trade exceptions).
Cleveland is not a contender this season, which probably makes several expiring veterans available in trade (or bought out later in the season) like Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson and Matt Dellavedova. The team still owes $120.4 million to Kevin Love. While the Cavaliers may find a market for the former All-Star in a trade, not every team will be able to easily match his $28.9 million in salary for 2019-20.
Collin Sexton and Ante Zizic have team options for the 2020-21 season that need to be picked up before the start of November. Cedi Osman is eligible for a contract extension, at least until the season begins.
– Eric Pincus
TOP OF THE LIST
Top Offensive Player: Kevin Love
There isn’t any question as to who the go-to guy is for the Cleveland Cavaliers, nor is there a question about who this team’s leader is. Kevin Love’s impact on the games themselves and the young players around him was clear in the overall confidence of the group, as the wine and gold won seven games between mid-February and mid-March. He helped instill self-belief in rookie Collin Sexton and an inexperienced Cedi Osman, while also providing the spacing necessary for each player’s success.
Love’s value comes from forcing opposing big men out to the perimeter to clear the lane for Cleveland’s offense to operate. Whoever initiates the offense will be able to attack the basket, leaving a choice to either finish, draw a foul or kick it out for a shot. There wasn’t much good from that last season with a lack of shooting, but Love certainly shined as of the few who consistently converted on those opportunities. He also showed a versatile side as an impressive passer when the Cavaliers utilized the inside-out game by playing through the post. It will be interesting to see how head coach John Beilein takes advantage of the 31-year-old’s talented skill set.
Top Defensive Player: Larry Nance Jr.
Today’s NBA requires adaptability on both ends of the floor. Larry Nance Jr. is the furthest thing from a one-trick pony. With a wide wingspan and impressive mobility, it really is a matchup nightmare for anybody he defends. Against guards on the perimeter, he’s quick and steady. In the paint versus bigs, he’s strong and has a nose for the ball, evidenced by his 2.8 percent steal percentage last season, good for fourth-best in the league.
What isn’t said enough about Nance’s activity on the defensive end and on the glass is how smoothly it starts transition opportunities. He’s crashing the boards after misses to immediately outlet the ball, or he’ll force a turnover and bring it up himself. We’ve seen flashes of his shot-blocking capabilities, too, but the rim protection and use of verticality are certainly improving.
Top Playmaker: Larry Nance Jr.
While the term Swiss Army knife may be cliche, it’s probably the most fitting to describe Nance. We knew how much potential was there when we watched him play in Los Angeles, yet we didn’t know how many different areas of the game he could affect. He got the opportunity last year to expand his game, and he did not disappoint.
With Nance assuming the role of point forward, Cleveland often played through the middle. He would get the ball at the top of the key, where guards and wings would cut either behind or in front of him. Palming the ball high with one hand, he’d typically find a teammate off ball by the rim with a flashy pass. If there wasn’t a lane, he’d settle for a dribble hand-off and set a pseudo-screen to open up a look just long enough for the shooter on the receiving end. With a few more three-ballers added to the mix now, Nance’s ability to make plays will be a key asset to Beilein.
Top Clutch Player: Collin Sexton
Perhaps the most endearing quality about Sexton is his refusal to quit. Time and time again last year, there were plenty of moments in which he could’ve thrown in the towel. He never did. His work ethic didn’t allow him to. He’d be out on the floor two hours before every game – studying film, working with assistant coaches and shooting with the two-way contract players and G-League guys. It’s pretty rare for a lottery pick, the former eighth overall selection in an NBA Draft, to go to such lengths to improve.
Those hours of work showed up in games, especially in crunch time. It’s like Avery Johnson, Sexton’s former coach at Alabama, told the media – he just loves when the lights are brightest. Last year’s Cavaliers’ coaching staff fawned over the rookie’s marked improvement in shot selection and decision-making down the stretch. His 70 percent three-point conversion rate in the clutch partially shows it, but it’s really the fearlessness of having the ball in his hands and the progression of making the right play that stands out here.
The Unheralded Player: Ante Zizic
Isn’t it curious that when people bring up who won the Kyrie Irving – Isaiah Thomas trade, they usually forget that Ante Zizic was a part of the deal? This is a man who was picked 23rd overall in the 2016 NBA Draft. All it takes for somebody to gain some confidence is a little playing time. With injuries to Love and a fluctuating roster, the Croatian center received an opportunity. He didn’t let it go by the wayside.
In essentially his first season (he sporadically played in 2017-18), Zizic put his footwork on display with his back to the basket. More often times than not, he’d have a feathery touch on his jump-hook shot and showed he could work the pick-and-pop game from mid-range. He’s got to work on conditioning, his foot speed still needs to get better and his reactions defensively must be sharper, but we’ve got to remember Zizic is only 22 years old. Cleveland has an intriguing young talent on its hands.
Best New Addition: Darius Garland
The Cavaliers desperately needed anything and everything to accelerate this organization’s rebuild from a talent standpoint. Drafting Darius Garland and two more dynamic rookies only adds to that pool and, for the Vanderbilt standout, could give him the keys to the castle. Beilein and his coaching staff are envisioning a dual-guard set between Garland and Sexton a la Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in Portland.
Both will be able to handle the ball and orchestrate the offense. Vice versa, the two backcourt partners will play off the ball and switch roles when necessary. Following his introductory presser at Cleveland Clinic Courts, a league source raved over Garland’s potential. If his track record before his short college stay translates to the pros, there’s a bright future in store for him.
– Spencer Davies
WHO WE LIKE
1. Cedi Osman
Elected to the Rising Stars Game at NBA All-Star Weekend this past year, Osman was another young player that exhibited the advancement in his development. Thrust into the starting forward role right away, there were ups and downs partially due to playing out of position. When Love was hurt, then-head coach Larry Drew played him up a slot at power forward, where he was often overpowered and outmatched on the defensive end.
However, it was a good learning experience for the Turkish swingman to reveal the hardships of being depended on night-in and night-out with a rigorous schedule. He pushed through and, like Sexton, passed with flying colors when playing with a healthy roster. Per Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com, here’s the most notable stat regarding Osman: His points per game average increased by 8.1, the second-most in the NBA from 2017-18 to ‘18-19 – right behind Pascal Siakam, the Association’s Most Improved Player.
According to Fedor, the Cavaliers and Osman have had preliminary talks regarding a contract extension, but the 24-year-old’s main priority at the moment is representing Turkey in the FIBA World Cup.
2. Tristan Thompson
Though he only played for a bit over half of the season total, Tristan Thompson had a career year. It was the first campaign that the veteran big man put together a double-double average, proving to the masses how skilled he has always been if not for the setbacks and injuries. Before any of that, he’d been Cleveland’s iron man to always make the hustle plays, pull down the big-time rebounds, throw down high handoffs and bring the energy. We saw that version of Double T last season. With a contract year coming up, it’s likely he’ll turn on the jets even more – regardless of whether he remains with the team that drafted him or not.
3. Jordan Clarkson
It’s understandable that little attention was paid to the Cavaliers last year, so not too many basketball enthusiasts saw the display Jordan Clarkson put forth as a sixth man. When you look at the totals – a career best 16.8 points per game – it was arguably his best season as a pro yet. The instant offense is the name of JC’s game. He’s as streaky as they come, but when he gets it going, he turns into a microwave at the snap of a finger. Although when he doesn’t have it going, there’s a lot of forcing and bad possessions. It’s just the type of player he is. Similar to Thompson, Clarkson is entering a contract year and could draw plenty of interest around the league from those teams in need of bench help. If he continues to pack a powerful punch off the pine, Cleveland could receive an offer it can’t refuse. We’ll see if general manager Koby Altman decides to hang on to him.
4. Kevin Porter Jr.
The wine-and-gold brass is such a believer in Kevin Porter Jr. that the franchise bought the 30th overall pick for a league-record $5 million in addition to trading four second-round picks to the Milwaukee Bucks. 2018’s Mr. Basketball in Washington has a multitude of tools in his bag. It’s getting the 19-year-old to focus and hone in on being a professional that will be the challenge – for both sides. According to Chris Fedor, the Cavaliers saw Porter as a top-10 talent. If their talent evaluators turn out to be right, this could be a steal of an addition.
5. Dylan Windler
The first of two late first-round picks, Dylan Windler is a sort of “do everything” player. He can pull up from distance, pass the ball to set up teammates and sniff the ball out on both sides of the court. With an unorthodox style of ambidextrousness, Windler could earn advantageous situations by keeping defenses on their toes. The shot’s going up lefty, but he’s right-hand dominant, can make plays with both hands and is always around the rim looking to find extra possessions for his team.
– Spencer Davies
Cap guy Eric Pincus already addressed this surely, but how about the job Koby Altman has done in just two years of work? He started a rebuilding process halfway through LeBron James’ last season in Cleveland and continued it further a year ago. The road map from what he’s acquired and sent out, plus what those moves have turned into in the present, deserves more praise than he’s gotten — especially with the fact that the team is now under the luxury tax amount. Asset accumulation mode has been prioritized in the last year or so, and that won’t be changing in the upcoming season.
The Cavaliers have a boatload of expiring deals – Tristan Thompson ($18.5M), Brandon Knight ($15.6M), Jordan Clarkson ($13.4M), John Henson ($9.7M) and Matthew Dellavedova ($9.6M) – and that could lead to even more draft capital in the future. It’d be hard to see every one of those players traded, but there’s little chance Altman doesn’t strike when the iron is hot with at least two of these valuable contract assets. And that’ll open up floor time for the younger players and potentially affect the long term picture in a positive manner.
– Spencer Davies
The inexperience on and off the floor is quite concerning. You can argue how much better the team is from the “on-paper” perspective. Until we see it in action, what can we really say? John Beilein hasn’t coached in an NBA game and he’s an integral part of pacing a rebuild with a bunch of young pieces. This roster currently has nine players with four years of experience or less, four of which are rookies and three of them have two or less. Now, having the players who have seen the floor time and been through the wringer is huge leadership-wise – but this combination of a lack of exposure to the pro level between the head coach and the team is something the Cavaliers will have to go through together.
Defensive breakdowns were maddening a season ago, so we’ll see if the staff addresses that first and foremost. Shooting, obviously, was not the strong suit of this squad either, but new personnel could help change that trend. An overlooked element in all of this to keep an eye on – staying healthy. It just seems like the injury bug bites just a little harder than most in The Land. It screws up rotations, makes things more difficult and demands adjustments.
– Spencer Davies
THE BURNING QUESTION
Does Kevin Love Get Traded Away?
For most pundits and national news outlets, we’ve seen “Trade Kevin Love?” float about since he came to Cleveland. Most of the time, it’s been a clickbait headline in an effort to get a rise out of people. This offseason, it’s been a legitimate inquiry.
Love is a hot commodity at the moment. When he is on the floor, his impact on the game supersedes most stretch bigs around the league. He cans three-pointers, hits the glass hard and has an All-Star-level skill set — and, best of all, he’s in the best shape of his life. There’s plenty left in the tank. The phone is going to be ringing in Koby Altman’s office early and often. The Cavaliers know where they are in their timeline and, obviously, know where Love is in his. The obvious answer to the question of whether he is moved should be a defiant “yes.”
However, it’s more complicated than that. Love has a hefty contract that goes through 2022-23 and will require a ton of salary to match it in a potential deal. There are also questions of whether or not that price is worth it for some teams hesitant about his injury history. On the other side of the spectrum, the Cavaliers likely won’t be “shopping” Love. He’s the face of the franchise right now. His locker room leadership is invaluable. He signed a lengthy extension last summer knowing the road ahead might be rocky.
Love won’t be one to complain behind-the-scenes to force his way out. He’s been nothing but the consummate professional since his arrival, and that’s not going to change. In fact, he’s already got a team mini-camp planned out in New York prior to training camp.
The only way Cleveland sends Love packing is if a team comes with a home run offer. There’s a reluctance in the front office to part ways with him not only because of his meaning to the franchise but also because there may not be an offer deemed good enough to get the proper return on his value.
Where that ultimately leaves the Cavaliers in 2019-20, we can only wait and see for now.
– Spencer Davies
Should The Knicks Pick Up Options On Young, Unproven Talent?
The Knicks have three young players whose third- and fourth-year options must be decided on before Nov. 1. Should they pick them up or continue amassing salary cap space in hopes of chasing Anthony Davis? Drew Maresca analyzes the pros and cons of hanging on to young talent for another year.
NBA teams face all kinds of decisions and, of course, most major decisions teams face have underlying financial implications. Naturally, Oklahoma City would have loved to re-sign Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka following the 2012 season, but the prospect of paying the luxury tax seemed too prohibitive to ownership and general manager Sam Presti.
And like most other teams, the Knicks have plenty of big financial decisions to make very soon – namely, whether or not to offer long-term extensions or merely pick up their respective team options.
For context, teams must decide on rookie-scale extensions by Monday, Oct. 21 — the night before the beginning of the season — and they need to weigh fourth-year options for players with two years of experience and third-year options for those that signed their rookie deals last year by Oct. 31. Rookie deal third-and fourth-year options are still affordable enough that it makes sense to pick up most team options regardless if a player plays a major role or not – and if they do, the option becomes all-the-more affordable.
Now, most lottery picks see their third and fourth-year team options picked up. But the Knicks are in the unusual position of having to decide on all three prior to any of them demonstrating consistency or overly-productive play. The three currently eligible for extensions or team options are Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr. and Kevin Knox. None have set themselves apart as a long-term starter. None of them are seen as a complete player. And each has his own well-documented limitations – but still, do the pros outmeasure the cons?
Ntilikina is a rock-solid defender — butut his production on the offensive end has been inconsistent and unreliable. He shot a mere 28.7 percent on three-point attempts last season with a 39.5 percent effective field goal percentage. Unfortunately, he has proven to be a non-factor in terms of scoring the ball consistently and he disappears entirely at times.
Smith Jr. can absolutely get buckets. His athleticism is a major positive and he’s a better defender than most people believe. But Smith Jr. has efficiency problems, too. In 2018-19, Smith Jr. shot only 32.2 percent on three-pointers and 63.5 percent from the free-throw line — both are far below what teams expect from a starting guard. Worse, those season totals are better than what he demonstrated in two and a half months in New York. Beyond that, his assist-to-turnover ratio (2.07) was below the league average for point guards last season.
Knox is younger and has less experience, so he deserves a little extra slack. Still, there are a number of knocks on Knox – specifically around defense and efficiency. According to cleaningtheglass.com, Knox’s assist percentage was in the sixth percentile among players at his position and his turnover percentage was in the tenth percentile. Somehow, he posted an equally horrid defensive rating and effective field goal percentage. Knox has lots of potential, but he also needs to make major improvements and make better decisions with the ball and on defense.
Re-signing any of the three to long-term deals is probably out of the question from a timing standpoint as there are only three days left to do so. And there’s probably limited desire to do so, anyway. But what about their third- and fourth-year options, should the Knicks pick them all up? The answer is simple – yes, and without hesitation, but let’s explore why:
The options for Smith Jr., Ntilikina and Knox are set at $5.68 million, $6.176 million and $4.58 million, respectively.
While the 2020 free agent class appears limited compared to recent seasons – there are no sure-fire All-Stars other than Anthony Davis – the Knicks maintained salary cap flexibility thanks to creative team options and one-year signings that cover literally every signing made this past offseason. So picking up all of the aforementioned options represents a commitment of more than $16 million, which will eat into the aforementioned flexibility they smartly invented just recently.
Well, yes — but there should be more space to use. However, the Knicks can’t know exactly where the salary cap will land next season – and it could end up significantly lower than previous estimates due to the current NBA-China beef – but the options represent three contributors to the roster, all of whom they can control for at least one more season. And remember, New York doesn’t have too much depth.
Beyond their young core. Smith Jr., Ntilikina and Knox will all play a role for the team. Looking back to last season, they played 21.0, 29.02 and 28.8 minutes per game as Knicks last season, individually. Those numbers should go up in 2019-20, and paying between $4.5 and $6.2 million apiece to play such large roles is mostly impossible elsewhere.
Thusly, approximately $16 million is a bargain for three contributors — but that becomes all the more obvious when we consider that the average salary was $6.38 million in 2018-19 – more than any of the individual option years. At 21, 21 and 20 years old, these three players should all take leaps forward in their respective development, meaning their salaries could become even more of a bargain than they are now. Further, the salary cap is $109 million this season and none of those options would represent even six percent of the 2019-20 cap.
Even if the Knicks played it frugally and declined their options in favor of cap savings, what would the Knicks even do with them? We’ve already established that the class is less-than-stellar; but what’s more, who’s to say any would be attracted to Madison Square Garden, anyway? The Knicks have had limited (and small) success(es) in free agency. That’s not to say they should give up. But it’s their reality and it’s on them to change it.
New York has suffered major culture setbacks in recent years that landed them exactly where they are. In reverse chronological order, there’s been: The public fallout of them being burned by 2019 free agents, Kristaps Porzingis asking to be traded, James Dolan having Charles Oakley escorted out of Madison Square Garden and all of the damage done by Phil Jackson (e.g., the “posse” fiasco and his public, passive-aggressive war with Carmelo Anthony). That only takes us back through 2014 and ignores the Isiah Thomas-era and the fact that they’ve won one playoff series in the past 18 years.
Having said all that, and despite what Presidential candidate Andrew Yang thinks, there’s finally a light at the end of the tunnel. But from a cost-efficiency standpoint, as well as to continue building a positive perception league-wide, the Knicks must pick up all three options. Ultimately, they’ll be better for in both the short- and long-term.
NBA Daily: Hield, Kings Both Have Room To Bargain
Buddy Hield understandably feels as if he’s worth more than the Kings have offered him, but that doesn’t mean he’s worth more than that to Sacramento, specifically. Douglas Farmer writes.
The emotion in Buddy Hield’s voice Wednesday night made it clear his words were not a negotiating ploy. When the fourth-year shooting guard said he would find someplace else to play if the Sacramento Kings did not properly respect him in contract negotiations, he was sincere.
“We’ll see if they’ll have me here,” Hield said. “Feels home to be here. I love Sacramento, but if they don’t feel I’m part of the core … if they don’t want to do it, then after that, I’ll look for somewhere else to go.”
Kings guard Buddy Hield is taking these contract talks very personally. In an emotional postgame interview, he talked about “finding another home” if the team doesn’t get a deal done by Monday’s deadline. pic.twitter.com/sEkJEZfNkS
— Jason Anderson (@JandersonSacBee) October 17, 2019
The Kings have until Monday to reach an agreement on a rookie-scale extension with Hield, who is eligible for a four-year deal north of $130 million or a designated-player extension of five years and $170 million.
But Hield may not be looking for those outlandish numbers. Per Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports, Hield is looking for a contract of about $110 million, while Sacramento has offered only $90 million across four years.
“It’s not always about less than the max, it’s just something that’s reasonable and is not an insult,” Hield said. “If we respect each other on that level, we’ll come to that agreement.”
Hield shot 42.7 percent from deep last season on 7.9 attempts per game while averaging 20.7 points. He may not necessarily be worthy of a max contract, but his is a valued skill set in the modern NBA. Combine that with the weak 2020 free agent class, and Hield has some ground to dig in upon at the bargaining table. If an extension is not agreed to, Hield would not be free to go wherever he wishes next summer, but he would be free to pursue that which might force the Kings’ hand as a restricted free agent.
Of wings expected to hit the market next summer, Hield would be joined by Otto Porter, Joe Harris and, possibly, Hield’s current teammate, Bogdan Bogdanović (also restricted). It really could be that shallow of a shooting pool. Gordon Hayward is likely to pick up his $31.2 million player option with the Boston Celtics, while DeMar DeRozan and the San Antonio Spurs are reportedly in discussions. Meanwhile, Caris LeVert has already signed a new deal with the Nets.
That market vacuum could drive up Hield’s summertime price, though Sacramento could still match any offer. If the Kings would match ties into the exact reasons they are risking alienating a core player in the first place. Sacramento has returned to respectability — both in the standings and in perceived approach — by building through the draft. But their bill is almost due.
Hield, Bogdanović, point guard De’Aaron Fox and forward Marvin Bagley are all approaching paydays in the next few seasons. The Kings are almost certainly going to make massive offers to Fox and Bagley in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and those contracts will tie up Sacramento’s books for much of the 2020s. The additional $5 million per year sought by Hield could preclude other moves when combined with Fox’s and Bagley’s deals.
The Kings’ ground is strengthened by holding Bogdanović’s restricted rights, as well. If they lose Hield, they will still have a starting-quality shooting guard to play alongside Fox in Bogdanović. He may not have hit 602 threes in his first three seasons in the league as Hield has, but Bogdanović is currently at 263 through two years, hardly anything to readily dismiss.
Even though Bogdanović will not cost as much as Hield — pondering a $51.4 million, four-year extension — keeping both pieces of the shooting duo may prove too costly for Sacramento owner Vivek Ranadivé. At which point, Hield’s raw emotions Wednesday night may foreshadow Ranadivé’s decision.
Where could Hield go, if for no other reason than to drive up his price?
Any discussion of 2020 free agents must include the Atlanta Hawks, who could have as much as $79.1 million in cap space. Hield would fit both their roster timeline and its general construction, though they did just snag both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish in the 2019 draft. Hield’s minutes would come from the same pool as theirs, making this pairing a bit redundant.
There would be no such conflict with the Dallas Mavericks, whose centerpieces currently miss a wing with range from deep. The Mavericks would lack the space to sign Hield if Tim Hardaway Jr. opts into his $19 million player option, but that could simply precede a sign-and-trade with the Kings. There are certainly ways to make the space necessary should Dallas owner Mark Cuban want to.
If Hield wanted to be a part of another group that is “getting the team back to where it needs to be,” the Memphis Grizzlies would be a situation very similar to Sacramento’s. Forward Jaren Jackson Jr. will see his first big contract begin in 2022 and this year’s No. 2 overall pick Ja Morant should follow that trend a year later. The Grizzlies, however, do not have an exceptional shooter to pair with their young duo. If nothing else, Memphis could drive up the price on Hield to compromise the Kings’ cap space moving forward.
Those possibilities, among others, give Hield practical reason to stand his ground for what he feels he’s worth, while Sacramento’s long view may make it think twice. As emotional and blunt as he was, Hield understands these realities.
“Some people will get the max and some people won’t get the max,” he said. “That’s how it works.”
The Divide On Analytics
The disconnect in the understanding and use of analytics is widespread in today’s basketball landscape. Unearthing the reasoning behind these numbers will not only change how we talk about them, but also revolutionize how we look at the game in the future. Drew Mays writes.
Once upon a time, during a routine, regular season game, a well-regarded shooter was left alone for a corner three. Iman Shumpert, then with Cleveland, rushed to a hard closeout. Seeing Shumpert off balance, the shooter blew by him.
After the play, LeBron James criticized Shumpert for his overaggression. Shump, understandably, was confused – he’s a shooter! Shooters need to get run off the line!
LeBron responded that from that particular corner, the shooter only shot 35 percent – much worse than his overall three-point percentage that garnered his reputation. Accordingly, LeBron would have rather Shumpert closed under control, baiting the shooter into hoisting from a spot he doesn’t like, rather than letting him drive towards the rim with a full head of steam.
This simple knowledge of percentages has merged into the greater conversation of advanced statistics and analytics. Before these numbers were readily available, a respected jump shooter would never be left alone.
Now, the word “analytics” has transformed from a description into a clustered and contentious field. Even though – especially for those of us without data-processing backgrounds and math degrees – the above illustrates what analytics are and what they provide at their core: Information to make decisions on the micro-level and a tool to inform philosophies on the macro-level.
Dean Oliver and John Hollinger are the founding fathers of the basketball analytics movement. Both statisticians, they eventually parlayed their statistical methods and models into NBA front office jobs. These two paved the way for more recent data savants, such as Seth Partnow and Ben Falk, and their positions with professional basketball teams.
In August, Oliver was hired by the Washington Wizards to be a full-time assistant coach. Falk left the NBA a few years ago and has since started his website, Cleaning the Glass. Partnow and Hollinger both departed from their NBA jobs this year, returning to the media as staff writers for The Athletic.
Selfishly, the advantage of having Falk, Partnow and Hollinger back in the public sphere is the access we have to their brains. Partnow’s latest work is particularly geared towards analytics, and Falk and Hollinger’s are always rooted in them. Reading their work will increase your understanding of how basketball works in its current form and help develop your ideas about where it’s going.
The issue is this: Smart guys talking about numbers seems inaccessible…no matter how accessible it actually is.
Despite the talent of these three – and of all the other mathematicians writing in today’s media – there’s still a misunderstanding between those who wield statistics and those who don’t. Many times, even the players are part of the separation.
On Tuesday, Bulls guard Zach LaVine said this to the Chicago Sun-Times:
“I grew up being a Michael Jordan, Kobe [Bryant] fan… I think the mid-range is a lost art now because everyone is moving towards the threes and the analytics. I understand that because how it looks and how it sounds like it makes sense, but sometimes there’s nothing better than putting the ball in your best playmaker’s hands and letting him get the shot he needs rather than the one you want.”
This led to a revival of the discussion on ESPN’s The Jump. Rachel Nichols seemed to agree with LaVine in part, saying, “two is greater than zero.” Kevin Arnovitz followed with points important for our purpose, calling the death of the mid-range a “false dichotomy.”
“No one is saying, if a guy is wide-open at 19-feet, dribble backwards and take a shot… for Zach LaVine, it’s all about impulse control,” Arnovitz continued.
Impulse control in the sense that deciding when to take a mid-range shot is almost all of the battle. Context matters.
Matt Moore of The Action Network used The Jump’s clip to chime in. Moore tweeted, and then Kevin Durant responded.
The abbreviated version of the Moore-Durant thread is this: Durant, a historically great mid-range jump shooter, argues the side of, well, a historically great jump shooter. He talks about taking open shots regardless of where they come and a player’s confidence and feel.
Moore counters using the math. The refreshing conversation ends when another Twitter user points out that, since the analytics movement, James Harden’s mid-range attempts have dipped drastically. Durant admits he didn’t realize this.
The most telling part of the misunderstandings surrounding analytics came from Durant. He said, “I don’t view the game as math…I get what you’re saying but we just have 2 different views of the game. Analytics is a good way to simplify things.”
And that, folks, is the rub. That is the separation between fans, players and the John Hollingers of the world – the assumption that statisticians use advanced metrics and therefore see basketball as a math problem, while everyone else analyzes by merely watching the game (because of course, watching the games inherently equals reliable analysis).
But analytics isn’t a high-concept way to digitize the game and ignore the “eye test” Twitter fingers love to cite; they’re mathematical truths used to assess basketball success. Often, the air surrounding analytics is that it’s like me, an English major, taking freshman-year Calculus – impossible to understand. Because again, smart people explaining numbers can be daunting, even when they do it perfectly.
Truthfully, analytics are just more precise ways of discerning what happened in a basketball game. As Ben Taylor explains in one of his breakdowns, Chauncey Billups shooting 43 percent is more effective than Ben Wallace shooting 51 percent for a season. Billups is providing threes and making more free throws at a better rate, so even with Wallace’s higher raw field goal percentage, he’d need to be more accurate from two-point range to match Billups’ efficiency.
You don’t need to even study actual numbers to see why these statistical categories make the game easier to understand.
But, and this is another oft-forgotten point, these calculations are useless without context. In 2015-16, a Kawhi Leonard mid-range – when contextualized with qualifiers like time left on the shot clock – was a good shot. He right around 50 percent from 10-16 feet, so the advantage of taking a three over a two would be offset by Leonard’s 50 percent accuracy. During the same season, Kobe Bryant shot 41 percent from 10-16 feet. A Kobe baseline fadeaway with 14 seconds on the shot clock and a help defender coming from the high side is a bad mid-range shot.
Kevin Durant shot 58 percent from two last season. He shot 54 percent from 3-10 feet, 51 percent from 10-16 feet and 53.5 percent from 16 feet out to the three-point line.
Meanwhile, from those same distances, Zach LaVine shot 26 percent, 30 percent and 38 percent.
A mid-range jumper from Kevin Durant is usually a good shot. A mid-range jumper from Zach LaVine probably isn’t.
So, is the mid-range dead? Not completely. The last few champions rostered mid-range experts (Kawhi, Durant, Kyrie Irving), and some of the last remaining teams last season had one as well (Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum).
Does a correlation then exist between mid-range proficiency and winning titles? Again, that’s doubtful. There’s a correlation between great players and titles, and great players usually have the mid-range game in their arsenal. That’s part of what makes them great players: the lack of holes in their games.
The discrepancies in Durant and LaVine’s two-point numbers can be found in talent level and the quality of looks. Both affect the percentages. Again, context matters.
To Durant’s point on Twitter: It is, on some level, a matter of practice. If LaVine keeps putting in the work, he can become a better mid-range shooter, making those looks more efficient.
But as a starting base, we’d say it’s better for LaVine and players like him to not settle for mid-range twos. We’re not too upset if Durant does it.
Even in the age of analytics, basketball will always in part be a matter of feel. It will always be scrutinized by the eyes. And that’s okay – because advanced statistics give context to the effectiveness of those feelings being acted on.
Maybe the point is this: If the shot clock is winding down and you have the ball out top with a defender locked in front of you and have to hoist a shot…don’t take the long two. Please shoot the three.
It’s more effective. The math says so.