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NBA PM: Memphis Grizzlies 2017-18 Season Preview

The Memphis Grizzlies seem to be at a cross-road. Are two-star players enough in the West? We take a look at the situation in this season preview.

Basketball Insiders

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For long-time fans of the Memphis Grizzlies, the 2017 off-season has been a bittersweet affair. Fan favorites have unceremoniously departed the team. Gone are the likes of Tony Allen, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter. With them, a few more core pieces of the prime “Grit and Grind” days have departed. In their place, the Grizzlies will look to others, including a few reclamation projects, to step up and help fill the void.

FIVE GUYS THINK…

This season looks to be one of the more interesting seasons for the Memphis Grizzlies. Zach Randolph and Tony Allen are gone. Their division, and conference for that matter, is deeper and while the league is shifting to small ball play, the Grizzlies are anchored by big man Marc Gasol.

While Randolph and Allen certainly are past their glory days, they take with them a specific gritty personality that Memphis had adopted over the years. Without that, the Grizzlies may head into this season without the edge that had made them the lovable underdog tough guys in recent postseason matchups.

As the league continues to change their point of attack from half-court ball to full-court ball, this may be the season it catches up to Memphis and leaves them on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.

4th place – Southwest Division

– Dennis Chambers

Every year, a few more folks pick this to finally be the season the Grizzlies fall of the playoff wagon – and every year, they get egg on their faces. Will this finally be the year a reduced version of Grit n Grind misses the second season? On the one hand, the roster is almost scarily thin once you get past stars Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. On the other, that always seems to be the case, and it never seems to stop the Grizzlies from eking out enough wins to get it done. I’ve got them slightly outside the playoff picture, but with no absolute certainty here given their history.

4th Place – Southwest Division

– Ben Dowsett

They play the game for a reason, but it’s difficult to imagine the Grizzlies continuing to be the same team we remember them as without Zach Randolph and Tony Allen. After three years with the club, Vince Carter also followed Randolph to Sacramento, but the Grizzlies will resemble the team they have been so long as Mike Conley and Marc Gasol remain intact.

There certainly is a collection of young players on the squad that could amount to something—Andrew Harrison, Wade Baldwin and Deyonta Davis are a few—but it’s difficult to imagine the Grizzlies improving from last season. They are clearly two steps behind the Spurs and Rockets and will be pushed by a number of teams that they beat out to secure the seventh seed in last year’s playoffs. With the Northwest Division looking quite formidable, the Grizzlies are probably going to be on the outside looking in come playoff time, but that’ll largely depend on whether Chandler Parsons can give them meaningful contributions and whether or not David Fizdale can coach one or two of the youngsters up into becoming impactful players.

Anything is possible, sure, but expecting much from the Grizzlies this season may be a bit of a reach.

3rd place — Southwest Division

– Moke Hamilton

The Grizzlies are at a turning point this season. After years of being right there in the West, the Grizzlies opted to shed some of their older veterans and have taken some chances on players that have star-level ability but have not put together star-level careers. Combining some promising younger players with franchise anchors Mike Conley and Marc Gasol could be enough to swing the Grizzlies forward, but it could equally be the beginning of the end given the age of Gasol and Conley. The Grizz are a tough team to predict. They are well coached, have two underrated stars and a lot of promise on their bench, but none of that may mean anything in the West. The Grizzlies have done the hard part – they have two game changers. If any of the new faces or young guys they have invested time in turn into real players, the Grizz could be as good as they were a season ago. The problem is that’s not as likely as falling back given the volume of change and unknown.

3rd place — Southwest Division

– Steve Kyler

Some of the players that best represented the heart and spirit of the Memphis Grizzlies departed this offseason. Vince Carter, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen have all moved on, which leaves Mike Conley and Marc Gasol as the two major remaining players from the Grizzlies squad we have known for the last few seasons. Chandler Parsons is the team’s third most important player at this point, but he has struggled mightily with injuries over the last few seasons. The Grizzlies agreed to a four-year, max-contract worth roughly $94 million. That’s a huge amount of money for a player that just had his worst NBA season and seems unlikely to ever recapture his peak form. On the upside, the Grizzlies have taken a couple of fliers on players like Ben McLemore and Tyreke Evans, hoping they can have a bounce back season. The Grizzlies usually find a way to outperform our preseason projections, but this year may be different. These isn’t much overall talent, JaMychal Green has yet to re-sign and the team is depending on several players with significant injuries or injury histories. With this in mind, it’s very possible Memphis misses the playoffs this upcoming season.

4th Place — Southwest Division

– Jesse Blancarte

TOP OF THE LIST

Top Offensive Player: Marc Gasol

Marc Gasol continues to be an excellent player to build around. Count Gasol and point guard Mike Conley as the foundation for this team. Assuming Gasol continues his excellent play from last year, he will continue to be the focal point of the Grizzlies’ offense. Last year, Gasol averaged a career-high in points (19.5) and added three-point range to his game. This was the first year Gasol added the long distance shot to his arsenal on offense and the change came just in time to help a team that failed to get significant contributions on the perimeter from forward Chandler Parsons. Add in a career-high in assists (4.6) and Gasol stands out as the center piece of the offense as he can score from the inside, from three and as a facilitator for his teammates.

Top Defensive Player: Marc Gasol

Tony Allen’s contributions on the defensive end will be missed. He never lit the league on fire with his shooting or scoring but he thrived on defense. In a recent interview, he revealed the origin of the “hustle and heart” and “grit and grid” ethos the franchise has thrived on the past few years (it’s an interesting story that involves former Grizzly Rudy Gay). With Allen gone, we can surely count Gasol as the key defensive player for the Grizzlies going forward (especially considering Gasol led the team in defensive win shares last season). Gasol is a surprisingly effective rim protector and will be counted on as a last line of defense whenever Memphis’ wing defenders lose track of their opponents. Gasol will need to stay in great shape (he just finished playing in the Eurobasket tournament) to stay mobile and keep up when opposing defenses drag him out to the perimeter on close outs and pick and roll action. Gasol may be getting up there in age, but he’s still one of the best defensive anchors in the league.

Top Playmaker: Mike Conley

Like Gasol, Mike Conley used last season to increase his offensive output and help push the team into the playoff picture. Conley upped his scoring average to a new career-high (20.5) — a huge five-point jump from the prior year. Not only did the team make the playoffs but Conley helped to vindicate the franchise after it re-signed the lead guard to a maximum extension, amounting to the largest contract in NBA history. With the team’s backup point guard situation up in the air, Conley’s play will be key if the Grizzlies are to be successful. Conley will have to be aggressive in creating shots for himself and his teammates since there are no other playmaking ball handlers that can be counted on for a variety of reasons – mostly health. With a strong handle and the ability to get to the rim, Conley is and will be largely responsible for creating easy scoring opportunities for his teammates this season.

Top Clutch Player: Mike Conley (Honorable Mention – Marc Gasol)

Count this category as a toss-up. Unsurprisingly, Conley and Gasol are the two easiest choices here. Both have virtually identical net ratings (+11.5 and +11.6, respectively) in clutch time, defined by nba.com as play in the last five minutes of a game within five points. Gasol has a strong ability to get his own basket in the post and can hit an open jumper anywhere on the floor. Although close, the nod goes to Conley as his usage percentage is much higher (35.3 to 24.5 percent) since he controls the ball more than anyone else on the team. Whether taking the shot himself or creating an open look for a teammate, Conley has the skill and experience to execute in high-pressure situations.

The Unheralded Player: JaMychal Green

Putting aside injury concerns (discussed below), the most pressing issue the team is currently facing is the contract status of restricted free-agent forward JaMychal Green. The team has been unable to sign the young big man to a multi-year deal up to this point. With the clock ticking to training camp, the chances of Green being signed to the one-year qualifying offer, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, increases. The promotion of the versatile big man to the starting line-up helped to modernize the team’s offense last season. Green stepped in to compliment Gasol with sufficient outside shooting and athletic versatility. For a team that is trying to cement its lineup for the short and long term, this situation is concerning. Fans should hope that ownership finds a compromise that recognizes the young big man’s abilities and contributions before possibly losing him down the road.

Best New Addition: Ben McLemore

The Grizzlies have to deal with a lot of turnover. Many old stalwarts are gone and a new era of Grizzlies basketball begins. The signing of Ben McLemore is the most important new addition to help jumpstart this transition. Unfortunately, McLemore broke a toe in the offseason that projects to keep him sidelined for the first few weeks of the season. The team should keep high hopes that the change in scenery and a new, more stable enviornment, can help the young guard come closer to reaching his potential. McLemore has seen his minutes and productivity dip the last two years. If McLemore produces somewhere close to his full potential, he can quickly become the third most important player on a team looking for contributors up and down the roster.

– James Blancarte

WHO WE LIKE

1. Grizzlies Medical Staff

The franchise is in flux and pressure will be on the Grizzlies to keep the trove of injured and injury prone players healthy for the team to have a chance to make it back to the playoffs. Grizzlies’ fans have to hope and root for the team’s medical staff to effectively monitor and treat multiple players closely. The most important player in this regard is Chandler Parsons, who has been limited by severe knee injuries for several seasons. Add point guard Mario Chalmers (recovering from an Achilles tear) and wing Tyreke Evans, who has struggled with kneed injuries, to the list of players the Grizzlies’ medical staff will have to keep a close eye on. If even a few of these players can make a full recovery and stay relatively healthy throughout the upcoming season, the Grizzlies suddenly become a much more dangerous team in the Western Conference.

2. Coach David Fizdale

As mentioned, the team has to deal with a lot of ongoing injury concerns. Without reasonable assurances that the above players can be relied upon on a day to day basis, the pressure will be on Coach Fizdale to steer the team with a steady hand as players shuffle in and out of the line-up and the team likely struggles to find consistent contributors outside of Conley and Gasol. Fizdale endeared himself to the larger NBA community during last year’s playoffs when he complained about the team’s treatment by the referees. In frustration, Fizdale listed his grievances and punctuated the rant with the line, “Take that for data.” The Grizzlies eventually went down to the Spurs in six games but the coach gained additional recognition and further cemented the support of his players and Grizzlies fans.

3. Chandler Parsons

Chandler was ineffective last season after being signed by the team to be the third cog behind Gasol and Conley. The hope is that with sufficient time and rehabilitation, Parsons can be effective once again. After a poor outing last season, expectations are reasonably lower for the veteran forward. With so much cap space tied up in his contract, his comeback would be a nice boost for a team that is looking for all the help it can get on the wing. When healthy, Parsons is a versatile forward who can stretch the floor, facilitate the offense and guard both wings and some bigs in certain situations.

4. Tyreke Evans

Tyreke Evans has experienced varying degrees of success over the years. However, Evans struggled mightily last season with lingering knee issues. Evans was ultimately traded back to Sacramento, where he had spent his first five seasons in the NBA. Now going into his ninth season, Evans is looking to regain his peak form. While playing fewer minutes last year, Evan’s numbers, per 36 minutes, remained on par with his overall career arc. This gives some indication that if Evans can stay relatively healthy, he can still be an above average contributor on a team that sorely needs depth.

5. Mario Chalmers

Chalmers has never averaged more than 10 points a season and has never made the short list of the league’s best point guards. However, he should be lauded as a key contributor in the HEAT’s multiple title runs and two championships. Chalmers stuck around after the departure of LeBron James and continued to carve out his own success. Chalmers eventually joined the Grizzlies in the 2015-2016 season. Although he played as the back up to Conley, Chalmers effectively ran backup point and put up some of the best per-minute numbers of his career. Unfortunately, his season came to an end with an Achilles tear in December of 2015. Coach Fizdale and the front office both have made clear that they monitored his recovery and, when asked, Chalmers indicated this is why he went back to his previous team. Fizdale and Chalmers have history going back to their shared Miami HEAT days. With the mediocre play of Wade Baldwin and Andrew Harrison last year at the backup point, Grizzlies fans should be rooting for a full recovery for Chalmers.

– James Blancarte

SALARY CAP 101

The Grizzlies have stayed over the NBA’s $99.1 million salary cap, triggering a hard cap when they used most of their Mid-Level Exception (MLE) on Ben McLemore, Rade Zagorac and Dillon Brooks (along with their Bi-Annual Exception on Tyreke Evans). Memphis still has $1.4 million left in their MLE. The roster has 15 guaranteed players, not including restricted-free agent JaMychal Green – who is still negotiating with the team.

At almost $105 million in salary, the Grizzlies aren’t close to the $125.3 million hard cap, even if Green does return. Before November, Memphis needs to decide on 2018-19 options for Wade Baldwin and Jarell Martin. Next season, the franchise does not project to have any cap room, given their sizable investments in Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Chandler Parsons.

— Eric Pincus

STRENGTHS

Conley and Gasol are arguably in the peak of their respective primes. The two stalwarts share great chemistry and will rely on each other heavily this season. When healthy, these two are the foundation of the team, both on and off the court. The team has developed a reputation for hustle, defense and punishing teams with their post play. With Fizdale, the team will continue to shift to small ball play predicated on ball movement to keep up with the modern offensive trends in the NBA. While it’s not clear how far this team can go, with Gasol and Conley leading the charge, Memphis should have a shot of winning on most nights.

– James Blancarte

WEAKNESSES

Youth and injuries. Outside of the team’s big two, there is a shocking drop off when identifying the team’s third best player. Parsons has the talent to be this player but what version of Parsons comes back is unclear. McLemore can step into this role, as mentioned, but has to overcome his offseason injury and reach his potential – something that isn’t necessarily a given. With the injury bug hitting the above players, as well as Chalmers and Evans, the team’s success is heavily reliant on players that are currently injured or injury prone. Reliability and consistent production will likely be hard to come by for the Grizzlies this season.

– James Blancarte

THE BURNING QUESTION

Does the franchise continue to build around Gasol and Conley (both already in their 30s), or take preemptive action and look to rebuild the roster through a trade of one or both of their stars?

This is a tough question, especially for the fans who just witnessed the Grit and Grind era quietly come to a close with many familiar faces departing. As constructed, it’s hard to envision this team ever competing with the league’s top teams, such as the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Trading Conley and Gasol now could help accelerate a rebuilding effort, similar to what the Boston Celtics did with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. The likelihood is the Grizzlies won’t trade their two best players, but it’s something that should at least be considered.

– James Blancarte

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NBA Daily: Examining Michael Porter Jr.’s Ascension

Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging over 25 points per game and looks like a future All-NBA player. Bobby Krivitsky examines Porter’s ascent and the questions that come with it.

Bobby Krivitsky

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Since Jamal Murray’s season-ending knee injury, Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to new heights.

In the wake of Murray’s ACL tear in mid-April, Porter’s playing time has gone from 30.6 minutes per contest to 35.7, while his shots per game have risen from 12.6 per game to 16.5. The increased responsibility has fueled his ascent. He’s knocking down 56.3 percent of those attempts. He’s taking 8.2 threes per game and making a blistering 50 percent of them. As a result, Porter’s gone from averaging 17.5 points per game to 25.1. He’s also grabbing 6.1 rebounds and blocking almost one shot per contest.

At the time of Murray’s injury, the Denver Nuggets were in fourth place in the Western Conference. They remain there now, 9-4 in his absence, and they boast the eighth-highest net rating in the NBA.

The only way for the Nuggets to fall from fourth would be if they lost their four remaining games and the Dallas Mavericks won their final five contests because the Mavericks have the tiebreaker since they won the season series. On the more realistic end of the spectrum, Denver sits just 1.5 games back of the Los Angeles Clippers, who occupy the third seed in the West. The Nuggets won their season series against the Clippers, meaning they’d finish in third if the two teams ended the regular season with the same record.

There’s a bevy of questions surrounding Porter’s recent play that need to be asked but cannot get answered at the moment. That starts with whether this is anything more than a hot streak. While it’s impossible to say definitively, it’s reasonable to believe Porter can consistently and efficiently produce about 25 points per game. He was the second-ranked high school prospect in 2017 and entered his freshman year at Missouri firmly in the mix for the top pick in the 2018 NBA draft. That was thanks in large part to his offensive prowess as a 6-10 wing with a smooth shot that’s nearly impossible to block because of the elevation he gets when he shoots. 

A back injury cost him all but 53 minutes of his collegiate career and caused him to fall to the 14th pick in the draft. He ended up in an ideal landing spot, going to a well-run organization that’s also well aware of its barren track record luring star players looking to change teams, making it vital for the Nuggets to hit on their draft picks. 

Porter’s first year in the NBA was exclusively dedicated to the rehab process and doing everything possible to ensure he can have a long, healthy and productive career. Last season, finally getting a chance to play, he showed off the tantalizing talent that made him a top prospect but only took seven shots per game while trying to fit in alongside Nikola Jokic, Murray, Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant.

More experience, including battling against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, an offseason, albeit a truncated one, to prepare for a more substantial role with Grant joining the Detroit Pistons and Millsap turning 36 this year, helped propel Porter. 

But for the Nuggets, before Murray’s injury, the perception was that even though they weren’t the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, they were a legitimate title contender. How far can they go if Porter’s consistently contributing about 25 points and over six rebounds per game while effectively playing the role of a second star alongside Jokic? 

It seems fair to cross Denver off the list of title contenders. But, if Porter continues to capably play the role of a second star alongside Jokic when doing so becomes more challenging in the postseason, the Nuggets can advance past a team like the Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers. And at a minimum, they’d have the ability to make life difficult for whoever they had to face in the second round of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the timing of Murray’s ACL tear, which happened in mid-April, means there’s a legitimate possibility he misses all of next season. Denver’s increased reliance on Porter is already allowing a young player with All-NBA potential to take on a role that’s closer to the one he’s assumed his whole life before making it to the sport’s highest level. If the Nuggets are counting on him to be the second-best player on a highly competitive team in the Western Conference next season, it’ll be fascinating to see what heights he reaches and how far they’re able to go as a team.

Theoretically, Porter’s growth could make it difficult for Denver to reacclimate Murray. But given Jokic’s unselfish style of play, there’s room for both of them to be satisfied by the volume of shots they’re getting. Unfortunately, the Nuggets have to wait, potentially another season, but Jokic is 26-years-old, Murray 24, Porter 22. When Denver has their Big Three back together, they could be far more potent while still being able to enjoy a lengthy run as legitimate title contenders.

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NBA Daily: D’Angelo Russell Back on Track

D’Angelo Russell lost much of the 2020-21 season to injury. Drew Maresca explains why his return will surprise people around the league.

Drew Maresca

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D’Angelo Russell was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves last February, just before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the entire season. But we’ve yet to see what Russell can really do in Minnesota.

The Timberwolves acquired Russell in late February in exchange for a future first-round pick – which transitions this season if they pick later than third – a 2021 second-round pick and Andrew Wiggins.

Sidenote: For those keeping score at home, the Timberwolves currently have the third-worst record in the league with five games remaining. It would behoove Minnesota to lose as many of their remaining games as possible to keep their 2021 pick. If the pick does not transition this season, it becomes unrestricted in 2020.

Trying to turn an owed pick into an unprotected future first is usually the wrong move; but in this instance, it’s better to keep the high first-rounder this year with an understanding that your 2022 pick will probably fall in or around the middle of the lottery.

The thinking around the deal was that Minnesota could qualify for the playoffs as soon as this season by swapping Wiggins’ contract for a young, talented lead guard in Russell. It has not played out as planned.

COVID resulted in a play stoppage shortly after the deal, robbing Russell of the opportunity to ramp up with his new team. When the NBA returned to finish the 2019-20 season, the Timberwolves failed to qualify for bubble play – and considering the US was still battling a global pandemic, Russell couldn’t easily practice with his new teammates and/or coaches.

The 2020-21 season began weirdly, too. The NBA proceeded with an abbreviated training camp and preseason. And while this impacted all teams, Russell was additionally hindered by the decision.

Ready or not, the season began. In 2020-21, Russell is averaging a near-career low in minutes per game (28.2) across just 36 games. He’s tallying 19.1 points per game on 43.6% shooting and a career-best 38.8% on three-point attempts. He’s also he’s posting a near career-best assist-to-turnover ratio (5.7 to 2.8).

Despite Russell’s contributions, the Timberwolves have failed to meet expectations. Far from the playoff squad they hoped to be, Minnesota is in contention for the top pick in this year’s draft. So what has gone wrong in Minneapolis?

Russell’s setbacks are fairly obvious. In addition to the lack of preparation with his teammates and coaches, Russell was diagnosed with a “loose body” in his knee, requiring arthroscopic knee surgery in February. As a result, he missed 27 consecutive games. Russell returned on April 5, but head coach Chris Finch revealed that he’d been on a minutes restriction until just recently.

Minnesota is clearly being cautious with Russell. Upon closer review, Russell has been restricted to under 30 minutes per game in all of his first 10 games back. Since then, Russell is averaging 31 minutes per game including an encouraging 37 minutes on May 5 in a four-point loss to Memphis.

Since returning from knee surgery, Russell is averaging 27 minutes per game across 16 games. Despite starting 19 of the team’s first 20 games, he hadn’t started in any game since returning – until Wednesday.

On the whole, Russell’s impact is about the same as it was prior to the injury, which should be encouraging to Timberwolves’ fans. He’s scoring slightly less (18.8 points since returning vs. 19.3 prior), shooting better from the field (44.9% since returning vs 42.6%% prior) and has been just slightly worse from three-point range (37.4% since vs. 39.9 prior). He’s dishing out more assists per game (6.5 since vs. 5.1 prior), too, and he posted three double-digit assist games in his last five contents – a feat achieved only once all season prior to his last five games.

Despite playing more and dropping more dimes, there’s still room to improve. Looking back to his career-bests, Russell averaged 23.1 points per game in 2019-20 in 33 games with Golden State (23.6) and 12 games with Minnesota (21.7).

But his most impactful season came in 2018-19 with the Brooklyn Nets. That season, Russell averaged 21.1 points and 7.0 assists per game, leading the Nets to the playoffs and earning his first trip to the All-Star game. He looked incredibly comfortable, playing with supreme confidence and flashing the ability to lead a playoff team.

At his best, Russell is a dynamic playmaker. The beauty of Russell is that he can also play off the ball. He has a quick release on his jumper and impressive range. His game is not predicated on athleticism, meaning he should stay at his peak for longer than guys like De’Aaron Fox and Ja Morant.

And while he’s been in the league for what feels like ever (six seasons), Russell just turned 25 approximately two months ago. Granted, comparing anyone to Steph Curry is unwise, but Curry wasn’t Steph Curry yet at 25. Former MVP Steve Nash hadn’t yet averaged double-digits (points) at 25. Twenty-five is also an inflection point for Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook. And the list goes on.

To be fair, Russell was drafted at 19 so he’s more acclimated to the league at this age than most, but his game will continue expanding nonetheless. He’ll develop trickier moves, become stronger and grow his shooting range. And a good deal of that growth should be evident as soon as next season since he’ll be fully healed from knee surgery and have a full offseason and training camp to finally work with teammates and coaches.

So while Minnesota’s 2020-21 season was incredibly bleak, their future is quite bright – and much of it has to do with the presence of Russell.

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NBA AM: Is This It for Indiana?

Following their major drop-off, Matt John explains why the Pacers trying to get back to where they were may not be the best decision.

Matt John

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Remember when, following the maligned trade of Paul George, the sky was the limit for the Indiana Pacers? The 2017-18 Pacers were one of the best stories in the NBA that season because they made their opponents work for their victories, and they put on a spectacle every night.

It’s hard to believe that all transpired three whole years ago. When Cleveland eliminated Indiana in a very tight first-round series, I asked if having the exciting season that they did – when many thought it would turn out the opposite – was going to benefit them in the long run. Three years later, this happens.

We were getting plenty of smoke about the Pacers’ drama behind-the-scenes beforehand, and now, we have seen the fire firsthand. More and more reports indicate that the crap has hit the fan. Indiana has seemingly already had enough of Nate Bjorkgren in only his first year as his coach. When you see the results they’ve had this season compared to the last three, it’s not hard to see why.

The Pacers have routinely found themselves in the 4-5 playoff matchup for the last three years. Sadly, despite their fight – and, to be fair, they had pretty awful injury luck the past two postseasons – they haven’t been able to get over the hump in the first round. They may not have been in the elite tier, but they weren’t slouches either. So, seeing them not only fail to take the next step but look more and more likely for the play-in is as discouraging as it gets. Especially after they started the season 6-2.

If these reports about the tensions between the players and Bjorkgren are real, then this has already become a lost season for the Pacers. It’s too late in the season to make any major personnel changes. At this point, their best route is just to cut their losses and wait until this summer to think over what the next move is.

In that case, let’s take a deep breath. This has been a weird season for everyone. Every aspect minus the playoffs has been shorter than usual since last October. Everything was shortened from the offseason to the regular season. Oh, and COVID-19 has played a role as the season has turned out, although COVID-19 has probably been the least of Indy’s problems. Let’s think about what next season would look like for Indiana.

TJ Warren comes back with a clean bill of health. Caris Levert gets more acquainted with the team and how they run. Who knows? Maybe they finally resolve the Myles Turner-Domantas Sabonis situation once and for all. A new coach can come aboard to steady the ship, and it already looks like they have an idea for who that’s going to be

Should they run it back, there’s a solid chance they can get back to where they were before. But that’s sort of the problem to begin with. Even if this recent Pacers’ season turns out to be just a negative outlier, their ceiling isn’t all too high anyway. A team that consists of Warren, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, and Caris Levert as their core four is a solid playoff team. Having Turner, Doug McDermott, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb, and the Holiday brothers rounds out a solid playoff team. Anyone who takes a good look at this roster knows that this roster is a good one. It’s not great though.

Just to be clear, Indiana has plenty of ingredients for a championship team. They just don’t have the main one: The franchise player. Once upon a time, it looked like that may have been Oladipo, but a cruel twist of fate took that all away. This isn’t a shot at any of the quality players they have on their roster, but think of it this way.

For the next couple of years, they’re going to go up against Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. All of whom are on the same team. For potentially even longer, they’ll be going up against the likes of Giannis Antetoukounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Jayson Tatum. With the roster they have, they could make a series interesting against any one of those teams. However, it’s a rule of thumb in the NBA that the team with the best player usually wins the series. Not to mention, they’d have to beat most of the teams those players play for to go on a substantial playoff run. That’s a pretty tall order.

There’s no joy in talking about the Pacers like this because they have built this overachieving underdog from nothing more than shrewd executive work. They turned a disgruntled and expiring Paul George into Oladipo and Sabonis. Both of whom have since become two-time all-stars (and counting). They then managed to turn an expiring and hobbled Oladipo – who had no plans to return to Indiana – into the electric Levert. They also pretty much stole Brogdon and Warren away while paying very little for either of them.

That is fantastic work. The only hangup is that, as of now, it just doesn’t seem like it will be enough. But, doubt and skepticism are things Indiana’s had thrown their way consistently since 2017. Many thought their approach to trading Paul George would blow up in their face, and since then, they’ve done everything in their power to make everyone eat their words.

Kevin Pritchard’s got his work cut out for him this summer. This season will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than performance ruined by both the wrong coaching hire and an unusual season that produced negatively skewed results. But at this point, Pritchard’s upcoming course of action this summer shouldn’t be about getting his team back to where they were, but deciding whether he can get them a step or two further than that by adding more to what they have or starting over completely.

Indiana’s had a rough go of it in this COVID-shortened season, but their disappointing play may have little to no bearing on where they go from here.

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