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Heat vs. Nuggets Odds, Picks, & Predictions Game 1 of 2023 NBA Finals

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James Foglio Sports Editor

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Updated2 hours ago on April 26, 2024

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Heat vs. Nuggets Odds, Picks, & Predictions Game 1 of 2023 NBA Finals

On Thursday night, the Miami Heat square off against the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals; preview, odds, picks, predictions, and injuries for the Heat-Nuggets matchup are here. Sportsbooks show the Nuggets as 9-point favorites at home. Miami is 23-28 away, while Denver is 42-7 at home. BetOnline odds are below.

Heat vs. Nuggets Preview | 2023 NBA Finals Game 1

  • 🏀NBA Playoffs NBA Finals 2023 Game 1: Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
  • 📊 Records: Heat (57-45, 44-55-3 ATS) | Nuggets (65-32, 53-43-1 ATS)
  • 📅 When is Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1: Thursday, June 1, 2023
  •  🏟 Where is Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1: Ball Arena | Denver, Colorado
  • 🕛 What time is Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • 📺 TV Channels: ABC
  • 💻 Free NBA Playoffs 2023 Live Stream: Jazz Sports
  • 🎲 NBA Playoffs 2023 NBA Finals Game 1 Odds: Heat +9 (-110) | Nuggets -9 (-110)

Heat vs. Nuggets Odds Game 1 of 2023 NBA Finals

NBA Finals Odds Heat Nuggets Play
Moneyline +300 -370 Heat vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, & Predictions Game 1 of 2023 NBA Finals
Point Spread +9 (-110) -9 (-110) Heat vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, & Predictions Game 1 of 2023 NBA Finals
Point Total 219 (-115) 219 (-105) Heat vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, & Predictions Game 1 of 2023 NBA Finals

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Heat vs. Nuggets Predictions | Game 1 of 2023 NBA Finals

Leading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals, the Miami Heat are only the third team to advance to the NBA Finals after posting a negative point differential during the regular season. They join the 1956-57 St. Louis Hawks and 1958-59 Minneapolis Lakers.

The Heat have won 41 straight playoff games when leading by 10 or more points at halftime, the second-longest streak in NBA history behind the Los Angeles Lakers (63 from 1985-2008). Miami’s last loss was in 2000 at the New York Knicks.

Moreover, the Heat are the second No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals, joining the New York Knicks in 1999. Miami is returning to the Finals for the seventh time and first since 2020. This is their seventh NBA Finals appearance, the most in the league since winning their first title in 2006.

On the other side, the Denver Nuggets are making their first NBA Finals appearance in franchise history. The Nuggets are the fourth team to reach the NBA Finals and never face a team with a win percentage of .550 or above in that postseason, joining the 1956 Warriors, 1957 Celtics, and 1959 Celtics.

“This is going to be the hardest game of our life, and we know that,” Nikola Jokic said. “We are prepared for that. We are prepared for that. So, I think there is no favorite. Definitely, I think we are not favorites in this series. I think they’re not either. I think it’s just the finals.”

Per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the Nuggets have a 78.7% chance of winning Game 1 at home. Considering the Nuggets have won six straight games against Miami, they should win the first matchup where they play best: Ball Arena. More NBA picks and predictions are on the main page.

Heat vs. Nuggets Injuries | NBA Finals Game 1 Injury Report

Miami Heat Injury Report

SG Victor Oladipo (knee; out for the season) | SG Tyler Herro (hand; out indefinitely)

Denver Nuggets Injury Report

PG Collin Gilespie (leg; out indefinitely)

Heat vs. Nuggets Betting Trends | 2023 NBA Finals Game 1

  • Miami is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games.
  • The Heat are winless in their past six meetings against Denver.
  • And the Heat are 1-6 in their previous seven matchups away versus the Nuggets.
  • Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 10-0 in their last 10 home games.
  • Next, Denver is 4-1 ATS in its past five encounters versus Southeast Division opponents.
  • Lastly, the point total has gone under in four of Denver’s previous five games played on a Thursday.

Projected Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG Gabe Vincent | SG Max Strus | PF Kevin Love | SF Jimmy Butler | C Bam Adebayo

Projected Denver Nuggets Starting Lineup

PG Jamal Murray | SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | PF Aaron Gordon | SF Michael Porter Jr. | C Nikola Jokic

Heat vs. Nuggets Picks Game 1 | 2023 NBA Finals Game 1 Predictions

For other betting statistics, the Heat are 41-24 as favorites, 26-21 as underdogs, 24-26-1 over/under away, and 23-27-1 ATS away. The point total has gone under in four of Miami’s last five contests.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is making his sixth NBA Finals appearance, tying John Kundla, Gregg Popovich, and Steve Kerr for the fourth most in league history. Phil Jackson leads the all-time list with 13, followed by Red Auerbach (11) and Pat Riley (9).

Equally important, the Nuggets are 52-19 as favorites, 13-13 as underdogs, 20-28-1 over/under at home, and 30-18-1 ATS at home. Since Denver has not yet lost at home this postseason, gamblers are expecting the Nuggets to come away with another win tonight.

Our betting experts here at Basketball Insiders are projecting the Nuggets to win Game 1, the Heat to cover the spread, and for the point total to go under 219. There’s a chance that Denver might be rusty in the first half after nine days off.

Pick the Nuggets to win! Miami could enter halftime with a single-digit lead, but the Nuggets will still win on their home court. For those new to sports betting, check out our handicap betting guide. Other NBA picks and predictions are on the main page.

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