NBA

How Much Are NBA Superstars Worth Against The Spread?

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James Foglio
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James Foglio Sports Editor

James is a Basketball Insiders contributor. He earned his bachelor's degree in English and Creative Writing at Southern New Hampshire University. James enjoys watching sports and helping gamblers win money.

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Updated1 hour ago on April 26, 2024

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How Much Are NBA Superstars Worth Against The Spread?

Sportswriter Ben Fawkes of USA Today gave NBA oddsmakers a list of 69 players and asked them to rank the point-spread value of each one. The journalist then averaged the five values together to get to a final number for every player.

A list of factors for the oddsmakers include:

  • Strength of the backup at the position
  • Relative strength of rest of the team (how many stars do they have?)
  • Opponent
  • Regular season vs. playoffs
  • How new rotations appear
  • Strength of coach

Top 5 NBA Superstars Against The Spread

As one oddsmaker explained, the spread isn’t the only form of odds impacted by an important player being out. Moreover, a defensive-minded could be valued higher for the total than to the point spread.

Two-time MVP and current NBA champion Nikola Jokic is ranked No. 1, worth 5.15 points against the spread (ATS) — the only player worth over five points ATS in the NBA. Of course, the top five are featured below.

1.) Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (5.15 points ATS)

2.) Joel Embiid, 76ers (4.52)

3.) Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (4.38)

4.) Luka Doncic, Mavericks (4.36)

5.) Stephen Curry, Warriors (4.09)

Every oddsmaker had Jokic as the most valuable player against the spread in the NBA, whereas a few others had Embiid over Giannis and some picked Antetokounmpo over Embiid.

“Going off of my experience, for years Giannis was the most valuable ATS, just because he always had the ball in his hands,” one oddsmaker noted.

“That’s the same with Jokic now, but to a greater extent. And the Giannis shifts were always at least 6 points. Jokic is off the charts on value above replacement, win shares, etc. … you can just watch a game as a casual fan and see how important he is.”

Check out the full list below.

NBA Player Value Against The Spread

Rank Player Team 2022-23 PER 2023-24 ESPN Rank ATS Value
1.) Nikola Jokic Nuggets 1 2 5.15
2.) Joel Embiid 76ers 2 3 4.52
3.) Giannis Antetokounmpo Bucks 3 1 4.38
4.) Luka Doncic Mavericks 4 4 4.36
5.) Stephen Curry Warriors 11 5 4.09
6.) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 7 8 3.67
7.) Kevin Durant Suns 9 7 3.48
8.) Jayson Tatum Celtics 14 6 3.31
9.) LeBron James Lakers 13 9 3.25
10.) Anthony Davis Lakers 5 10 3.19
11.) Damian Lillard Bucks 8 14 3.14
12.) Jimmy Butler Heat 6 12 3.11
13.) Ja Morant Grizzlies 17 35 3.08
14.) Devin Booker Suns 23 11 3.07
15.) Anthony Edwards Timberwolves 83 13 2.88
16.) Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 19 15 2.87
17.) Kawhi Leonard LA Clippers 12 24 2.84
18.) Trae Young Hawks 24 29 2.80
19.) Pascal Siakam Raptors 36 25 2.74
20.) De’Aaron Fox Kings 25 23 2.67
21.) Domantas Sabonis Kings 16 22 2.59
22.) Tyrese Haliburton Pacers 15 21 2.57
23.) Brandon Ingram Pelicans 54 27 2.52
24.) Jalen Brunson Knicks 29 32 2.47
25.) Lauri Markkanen Jazz 21 28 2.46
26.) Victor Wembanyama Spurs 27 43 2.46
27.) James Harden 76ers 73 44 2.41
28.) LaMelo Ball Hornets 97 38 2.40
29.) Mikal Bridges Nets 49 18 2.39
30.) Paul George Clippers 71 17 2.37
31.) Jamal Murray Nuggets N/A 47 2.26
32.) Julius Randle Knicks 35 45 2.21
33.) Zion Williamson Pelicans 10 57 2.18
34.) Kyrie Irving Mavericks 20 34 2.17
35.) Paolo Banchero Magic 53 26 2.15
36.) Bam Adebayo Heat 96 56 2.05
37.) Jrue Holiday Celtics 44 37 2.03
38.) Fred VanVleet Rockets 144 30 2.00
39.) Bradley Beal Suns 26 31 1.96
40.) Jaren Jackson Jr. Grizzlies 159 72 1.95
41.) Jordan Poole Wizards 34 39 1.91
42.) DeMar DeRozan Bulls 63 36 1.88
43.) Darius Garland Cavaliers 37 16 1.87
44.) Jaylen Brown Celtics 56 19 1.76
45.) Klay Thomson Warriors 153 41 1.72
46.) Kyle Kuzma Wizards 170 86 1.72
47.) Karl-Anthony Towns Timberwolves 64 20 1.71
48.) Desmond Bane Grizzlies 60 38 1.68
49.) Zach LaVine Bulls 61 64 1.68
50.) Rudy Gobert Timberwolves 18 62 1.67
51.) Kristaps Porzingis Celtics 55 61 1.63
52.) Cade Cunningham Pistons 72 40 1.60
53.) Evan Mobley Cavaliers N/A 74 1.46
54.) Tyrese Maxey 76ers 94 42 1.38
55.) Jalen Green Rockets 162 80 1.37
56.) Josh Giddey Thunder 92 53 1.36
57.) Scott Henderson Trail Blazers N/A 78 1.35
58.) CJ McCollum Pelicans 124 44 1.34
59.) Khris Middleton Bucks 84 46 1.32
60.) Franz Wagner Magic 118 52 1.30
61.) Chris Paul Warriors 76 76 1.29
62.) Tyler Herro Heat 134 79 1.25
63.) Chet Holmgren Thunder N/A 73 1.23
64.) Dejounte Murray Hawks 95 60 1.15
65.) Draymond Green Wariors 234 55 1.05
66.) Andrew Wiggins Warriors 145 66 0.99
67.) Austin Reaves LA Lakers 98 68 0.86
68.) Michael Porter Jr. Nuggets 152 54 0.83
69.) Russell Westbrook LA Clippers 112 94 0.45

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